Timothy Ash @tashecon Twitter profile

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@yaks00

Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

U.K. pushing for SWIFT being cut from Russia. About time.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

The loss of the Moskva is a catastrophic military defeat and humiliation for Russia. It’s the FLAGSHIP of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Simply extraordinary. I cannot understand why this is not the number one news story across all networks today.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

Italy saying they will not veto an EU Russian energy ban, so it’s now Germany, Austria and Hungary standing in the way. Looks like the learned nothing from WW2 about how to stand up against genocide.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

Absolutely insane day in Turkish FX today. Is there time for it to get to Robin Brooks’ 9.50 fair value yet? Don’t think I have ever seen such intraday FX volatility ever in my 30+ year career.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

Germany agrees to halt coal imports from Russia but not oil and gas. Not good enough - Germany is financing genocide in Ukraine. It learned nothing from WW2.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

Shame on Germany - responsible for the biggest genocide in Europe in WW2, now responsible for financing a second by buying Russian energy.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 months

Make Russia Pay! Join the campaign to freeze, seize and allocate immobilised Russian assets to Ukraine.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

30 years covering EM and I have never seen the FX volatility in any currency as we saw in Turkey today. Simply unbelievable.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

Turkey - just realised, Keynes, Friedman, Hayek, Solow, Samuelson, Adam Smith, Kornai, Dornbush, the Fed, ECB, BOE, me, all Western economists, we are all idiots. Wasted all our time, learning economics. Erdogan just rewrote all the theories.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

1 year

My piece on why US help for Ukraine is the best bang for buck the US will ever get.

It’s Costing Peanuts for the US to Defeat Russia

The cost-benefit analysis of US support for Ukraine is incontrovertible. It’s producing wins at almost every level.

cepa.org

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

Russia confirming international banks rejected $649m transfer for Eurobond payment - due to sanctions. Looks like Russian sovereign default is looming.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

1/ Let’s get this right, Germany spends the past 20y appeasing Putin. It’s industry taking Putin’s blood money, and it’s politicians doing the same. It makes wrong choices in terms of energy dependency on Russia. This appeasement is now coming home to roost.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

Turkey is taking a huge risk with Russia here. But if it is putting its balls on line, risking wrath of Putin by closing straits, and loss of tourism, we should all back Turkey by holidaying in Turkey this year - I will!

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

Oh dear…looks like someone totally misunderstood what I said. To underline I think the current monetary policy settings in Turkey are completely insane.

İngiliz ekonomist Timothy Ash: Erdoğan tüm teorileri yeniden yazdı

Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan'ın ekonomide açıkladığı yenin kararlar sonrası dolar kurundaki sert düşüş dünyaca ünlü ekonomistleri de şaşkına çevirdi. İngiliz ekonomist Timothy Ash, “Erdoğan tüm teorileri...

www.akittv.com.tr

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

Poland saying it is ready to treat 10,000 Ukrainian military injured - U.K. and other NATO members should offer the same.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

29 days

Flight to Istanbul - British Airways flight crew make announcement that during Ramadan eating, drinking and smoking in public places is not allowed in Turkey. Completely false - idiots. Just be respectful of others fasting. Common decency.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

Now that Putin has revealed he is at war with the West by stopping gas supplies how about the West taking direct action to confiscate + use the $400bn in frozen Russian assets in our financial system? Use to support Ukraine + bail out poorest consumers.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

1/ So it looks like Nord Stream 2 was not a commercial project after all, and was a geopolitical project. How could the German establishment get Russia so spectacularly wrong - I think they took Moscow’s blood money. That essentially sums it up.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

Hearing ruble being quoted up as far as 115 for tomorrow, from 83 on Friday. Putin is setting stage for financial collapse of Russia. So much for Fortress Russia as really devastating sanctions now roll out

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

Turkey - what a country!

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

I wonder if Macron, Scholz and Erdogan would be calling Hitler. They seem to have no comprehension that for Putin this is about eradicating Ukraine and Ukrainians. Read his essay from last summer which was his drum beat for war.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

Putin made catastrophic decision to invade - meaning he has lost Ukraine, half his army, Euro energy biz, allies (going to N Korea and Iran for munitions shows desperation as China not helping him), credibility, and likely ultimately Russia. Putin the Loser

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

4 years

Turkey - bit of a joke that the EU is not lifting the travel ban. Turkey has done as well, if not better than the EU average in fighting Covid19, and arguably much better than the UK. Guess inbuilt biases, racism and geopolitical interests playing out here.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

11 months

When the war ends - with an inevitable Ukrainian victory - there needs to be a G7 public inquiry about how the West was corrupted by Russian money. Let’s not be blind to this - 1/

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

4 years

Turkey does not get enough credit or support for this.

Soner Cagaptay

@SonerCagaptay

4 years

Turkey has less than 1 percent of the world population, but hosts nearly 15 percent of global refugee population

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

Putin has already lost Ukraine, forever. Only question now when he loses Russia.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

1/ Russia lots of talk that it is “winning” from sanctions as they elevate commodity prices. But in April It sold oil at an average of $70 a barrel, versus $107 for Brent, while oil production was down 9%. Russia is struggling to sell oil except at discount.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

1 year

If Kilicdaroglu wins the election in May Turkey will be welcomed back with open arms into the Western fold - 1st foreign visit for Kemal Bey will be DC or Brussels for sure. Huge amount of Western financing will flood back in - the coming Turkish boom.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

3 years

Turkey = decent banks, great corporates, solid public finances, pro business entrepreneurial culture. Good location - manufacturing hub close to key markets. All ingredients for great success. But the landmine in all this is totally idiotic monetary policy.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

If Putin wins in Ukraine then Europe’s security is at risk - how come the Germans, Italians and Hungarians just don’t get this? Sold out to Russian money? The West is not doing enough to support Ukraine. These three WW2 Axis allies should know better.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

10 months

Istanbul is literally full of Russian tourists - I cannot help myself looking into their eyes & asking myself were they bombing innocent civilians in Ukraine or Syria last week, committing war crimes and atrocities. And now getting R&R before doing it again.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

9 months

Great read - Russia is now essentially a fascist state, as per Nazi Germany, the sooner everyone comes to that realisation the better. People like Cyril Ramaphosa need to wake up, it’s a which side were you on moment in history.

Historian Tim Snyder: ‘Our misreading of Russia is deep. Very deep’

The Yale professor on why the west got Putin wrong — and what the past tells us about the war in Ukraine

www.ft.com

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

1/ When Macron warns that we should not humiliate Putin does that mean he thinks it’s ok to accept a little genocide against the Ukrainian people, but not a full genocide? Would he have adopted the same line against Hitler?

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

7 months

Staggering that the GOP, the party of Reagan, has been captured by Russian fascists.

US lawmakers pass short-term deal to avoid government shutdown

Agreement to maintain funding until mid-November leaves out billions of dollars in Ukraine aid

www.ft.com

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

4 years

Whatever you think about Erdogan, Turkey has been fighting in Syria to protect refugees. NATO should back Turkey.

Timothy Ash

@tashecon

4 years

NATO needs to rally behind Turkey.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

Not entirely sure that British sarcasm works very well in the Turkish context.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

4/ So in the end Germany does not want to pay to compensate for its mistakes of the past, and cushion the impact of sanctions and its failed policies.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

5/ But energy sanctions are really one of the key actions which could really hurt Russia, and perhaps dissuade Putin or Russia’s elites from backing this invasion. So Germany is now blocking this.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

The Macron - Scholz - Draghi visit to Kyiv looming looks like a recipe for disaster. Fear that rather like the three stooges they will look to bully Zelensky to concede territory with Putin for peace which will not hold. Putin will take and expect more later.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

4 months

The GOP are a party of imbeciles if they don’t get this.

Slava 🇺🇦

@Heroiam_Slava

4 months

Half of the Russian army was destroyed without the participation of a single American soldier. At the same time, only 5% of our annual defense budget was spent. We must continue to support Ukraine," said James Stavridis, former Supreme Allied Commander of NATO. Stavridis called…

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

So let me get this right. The US Treasury eases sanctions on Russia to enable it to avoid default and pay out investors who failed to listen to the advice of their own governments and continued to invest in Russia? Talk about a moral hazard play.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

2/ But now Putin has invaded Ukraine, and the West has no real military intervention options, only sanctions, the German government is unwilling to sanction Russia energy imports as it will damage its industry which has profited from Russian appeasement.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

Mickey, Scoobie, Bugs, Donald and Kermit.

Rag��p Soylu

@ragipsoylu

2 years

Talk of the day: Turkish Finance Minister Nebati believes US Federal Reserve isn’t independent and publicly owned. “It belongs to five families”

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

Slava Ukraini! Ukraine is actually the front line for us all in defending Western Liberal Market Democracy against Autocracy and Kleptocracy.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

3/ Sure, estimates suggest cutting off Russian energy could cost the German economy from 0.5-3% of GDP, and weaker growth. But Germany still has the strongest fiscus in the EU. Lots of fiscal space to ease to offset recessionary impact of cutting energy

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

Russia has literally stolen over half a million Ukrainian kids. Maybe the Pope would like to comment on that.

Sarah Ashton-Cirillo

@SarahAshtonLV

2 years

Breaking 🚨🚨 GENOCIDE ALERT 🚨 Commissioner for "Human Rights" in the Russian Federation Tatyana Moskalkova has just published a report stating 557,000 Ukrainian children were now in Russia and they could attend school, in person, free of charge. They aren't even hiding it.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

9 months

This is a big positive. Cevdet Akcay is a superb economist and thinker. Hatice Karahan is excellent. Fatih Karahan is from the NY Fed. This a a sea change at the Turkish central bank. Massive vote of confidence in Erkan from Erdogan.

Ragıp Soylu

@ragipsoylu

9 months

JUST IN: Erdogan sacks Central Bank Deputy Governors who are known for their unorthodox policy views. New governor Erkan fills up the positions: • Cevdet Akçay, a respected banker • Fatih Karahan, an economic advisor from Fed • Hatice Karahan, an Erdogan advisor

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

This is insane and embarrassing for Turkey. Turkey needs professionals in key posts.

Louis Fishman لوي فيشمان לואי פישמן

@Istanbultelaviv

2 years

Turkey's Finance Minister on CNN TURK spreads a conspiracy theory that the US Federal Reserve does not belong to the American public but rather is in the hands of 5 families. Just everyday news on @CNN 's affiliate in Turkey.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

10 months

Turkey - probably the worst economic situation I have seen since the 00/01 crisis. Totally fcuked economic inter-relations. Banks not lending due to wacky regulatory environment and big negative IR margins. 1/

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

27 days

Turkey - probably Erdogan’s worst election result in his 22 years in office. Inflation, inflation, inflation.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

4 years

Turkey - another $1bn used by state banks today to defend the lira and it still lost 2% on a day when the $ was weak. A huge price is being paid for Erdogan’s aversion to interest rate hikes - massive loss in FX reserves. Peoples FX deposits being spent.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

I think we all know - the political and business elite in Germany want this war over ASAP so they can get back to doing business with Russia.

The Kyiv Independent

@KyivIndependent

2 years

⚡️Ambassador asks Germany why it refuses to ship armored vehicles. “Why are you refusing the Ukrainian army these Marder (vehicles)..., while Ukraine is bleeding dry in the Donbas before your eyes?” Andriy Melnyk, Ukraine’s ambassador to Germany, tweeted. Photo: Wikipedia.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

Turkey - Erdogan apparently knows better than generations of Nobel economists. Says that Western views that inflation is caused by overconsumption is just wrong. We should just all retire then and let Erdogan run global economics.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

29 days

War is coming to the whole of Europe unless Putin is defeated in Ukraine. Just fact.

War a real threat and Europe not ready, warns Poland's Tusk

Donald Tusk warns of a "pre-war era" as Russian attacks leave swathes of Ukraine without power.

www.bbc.com

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

4 years

State bank fx traders must have been asleep or in Bodrum, or both.

Turkish lira drops towards record low against euro

Investors’ unease over monetary policy contrasts with optimism on EU economic plans

www.ft.com

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

1 year

Putin has lost the energy war, lost Europe, lost Ukraine (forever), lost Central Asia, lost the arms race (his military kit is crap - no one globally will want to buy), lost huge amounts of troops, military kit and treasure. What an idiot!

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

1 year

So the US has spent $18.6bn in military support for Ukraine, but the casualty rate for Russia has been immense: 2800 tanks taken out, 5800 AFVs, hundreds of aircraft. Best bang for buck for US military since WW2 in eroding an enemy.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

1 year

Totally agree that Zelensky is the person of the year. And Putin is the biggest loser of the year.

FT Person of the Year: Volodymyr Zelenskyy. ‘I am more responsible than brave’

The president of Ukraine embodies the resilience of his people and has become a standard bearer for liberal democracy

www.ft.com

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

1 year

Turkey - I met Kilicdaroglu in London a few months back with other investors & I thought his answers to questions were weak/waffling. I thought at the time that this guy is just no match for RTE in a campaign. Those concerns have kind of being realised. 1/

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

If it’s true that as many as five Turkish banks are facilitating transactions with Russia they should be caught in secondary Western sanctions.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

Turkey - Erdogan has lost control of the lira. Does he have any sense of what he is doing?

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

1 year

Turkey - I have been at technofest in Istanbul. Extraordinary show case of Turkish high tech capability and incredible to see the passion and enthusiasm of Turkish youth. Mega impressive.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

Turkey - think we have learned that lira has rallied this week not because locals have started buying lira but because central bank sold $15bn in thin markets.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

2/ Same reason Londongrad failed to sanction oligarchs like Abramovich until it was too late. British establishment sold itself out to Kremlin money.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

Italians throwing in the towel before war even started - Draghi saying sanctions on Russia must be limited and exclude energy. Disgraceful albeit I guess not unexpected.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

1 year

I know that the whole Bayraktar thing is becoming politicised in the context of the election but I just hope whoever wins, the Bayraktar guys can continue to provide support to Ukraine. They have been real heroes for what Turkey has done in Ukraine.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

5 years

Just met a young Russian who has recently received a UK passport, and was passionately defending Putin and did not seem that enthused by the Western Liberal Democratic model. Was left thinking that citizenship test needs some more work.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 months

The blood of Ukrainians is on speaker Johnson’s hands. Shame on him and the traitors in the GOP.

Ukraine Russia war: US warns Avdiivka could fall

The US and Ukraine admit Ukrainian troops are running out of ammunition in the eastern town of Avdiivka.

www.bbc.com

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

1/ Turkey - Erdogan does not get it on Sweden/Finland NATO accession that the decision is made, and even if he blocks their NATO membership they will be accepted into the Western security alliance by bilateral agreements.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

Turkey - it’s incredible how long an economy can survive despite an administration running crazy economic policies for so long. Shows real underlying durability of the Turkish economy and talent of Turkish economic actors who have learned thru adversity.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

7 months

Wow, huge move. Just shows weakening grip across region of Russia because of Putin’s idiotic invasion of Ukraine. He lost Armenia in recent weeks on Russia’s inability to help in NK.

Ragıp Soylu

@ragipsoylu

7 months

BREAKING — Kazakhstan will follow the sanctions regime against Russia, President Tokayev says The country does not have any concerns regarding territorial claims from the Russian Federation, he added.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

1 month

Russia is clearly a fascist state and Putin a dictator, war criminal and genocide pusher in Ukraine. The willingness of Western companies to stay in Russia is disgusting.

World’s largest oilfield services group has no plans to leave Russia

SLB has resisted pressure to follow its two biggest rivals in pulling out in response to Ukraine war

www.ft.com

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

Fortress Russia = sanctions, higher borrowing costs, reduced investment, low growth, lower living standards, social unrest, repression, brain drain, tech decline, EU energy diversification, dependence on China, stagnation. Road to nowhere. USSR circa 83’.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

Slava Ukraini! The Bayraktar guys are doing an amazing job.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

9 months

Turkey and UAE sign a massive $50bn MOU for investments. That’s much bigger than the $30bn originally mentioned. I assume with something similar from Saudi that would take Gulf support to $100bn plus. Are they selling Fenerbahce for that?

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

27 days

Turkey - pretty clear big defeat for AKP in local elections with CHP taking Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir and big cities, and beating AKP in national vote. It’s all about inflation! Erdogan needs to double down in support for Simsek and the new team at the CBRT.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

Turkey - the prob is inflation. 20% in Nov, likely rising to 30-50% over next few months. That’s why Turks don’t want to hold lira. CBRT needs to do its job + focus on fighting infl. Likely it needs higher rates not FX intervention/fancy deposit schemes.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

Greece is helping fund Putin’s war in Ukraine. Blood money.

Ragıp Soylu

@ragipsoylu

2 years

Nikkei documents how Greek tanker fleet is transporting Russian oil and conduct ship-to-ship oil transfers on the sea

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

Let’s name and shame companies still doing business in Russia,

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

4/ Long term the invasion of Ukraine and sanctions will be economically disastrous for Russia, only a question when ordinary Russians begin to feel the pain and realise this is coz of bad choices by Putin.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

27 days

Three big conclusions from AKP’s defeat in local elections: 1) Democracy is alive and kicking in Turkey; 2) Personalities matter - Imamoglu/Yavas led the charge in Istanbul/Ankara; 3) Inflation hurt the AKP vote badly. Erdogan has to get to grips with it.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

6 years

Erdogan says no need business with the IMF, “at the moment”, so not ruling it out then? Meanwhile, signing up to big contract with McKinsey for Cost and Transformation Office to cut budget spending. IMF might have been cheaper.

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@tashecon

6 months

Turkish foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, says “the West has completely lost moral superiority” - after years of failed Western intervention in the MiddleEast, and double standards, it’s hard to argue against this.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

Most over-used term - “things are never black and white”. Wrong, some things are crystal clear - like who is the aggressor here. Crimea, Donbas, MH17. 140,000 troops on the border of Ukraine. I worry about the judgement of people who cannot see the obvious.

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@tashecon

25 days

Big take out from Istanbul trip is that Turkey is not cheap. London prices for most things. Can see why many Turks are struggling to survive the inflation and cost of living crisis - hence the election result.

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@tashecon

2 years

Uzbekistan stops processing MIR cards….Turkey? Feels like the end is nigh for Putin. Putin and the Ayatollahs in Iran going down together.

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@tashecon

2 years

1/ Interesting how Putin has made himself and Russia the international pariah Nimber 1. Result - brings US to table with Venezuela. Turkey and Israel closer. Even makes US and Iran work harder on deal - even if Russia will now try and scupper it.

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@tashecon

2 years

Shame on Italy and Germany by blocking SWIFT sanctions. Selling a few more BMWs and Fiats seems more important to them then their democracy. Let’s see how the German army does against a Russian army blitzkrieg without US support.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

10 months

The solution on using frozen Russian assets for Ukraine is clear - allow Ukraine to issue Recovery Bonds. Use the frozen $400bn in Russian assets to buy them. Russian still owns the underlying asset - no attack on property rights. 1/

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

Remind me not to use sarcasm in the Turkish context again.

Pro-gov't media mistakes economist's sarcastic tweet for praise of Erdoğan, drawing ridicule -...

Turkey's pro-government media outlets have been the subject of ridicule on social media since they published stories about economist Timothy Ash's tweet sarcastically referring to Turkish President...

www.turkishminute.com

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@tashecon

2 years

Bayraktar drones making a big difference - thank you Turkey!

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@tashecon

2 years

Lavrov suggesting if US proposes Biden - Putin summit the Kremlin will consider it. Kremlin speak for we are desperate for peace talks. Typical Putin, escalate before talks.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

7 months

The Turks - Simsek, Erkan are the stars of the IMF meetings in Marrakesh. Sending a consistent message of reform and adjustment.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

3 years

Turkey - great country, people, corps + banks. Should be No.1 EM but insane policies at present, particularly around monetary policy, makes it very hard to invest. Message to Erdogan - you are totally+utterly wrong on relationship between inflation + rates.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

10 months

Russia notifies Turkey that it will not renew the Black Sea Grain deal. Putin kicks Erdogan in the balls, and with it the rest of the Global South. Russia is responsible for the global cost of living crisis because of its invasion of Ukraine, not sanctions.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

That looks like Yuri Boyko on the right - so even the “pro-Russian” Opposition Block is now allied with Zelensky against Russia. That is what Putin has done

Верховна Рада України

@verkhovna_rada

2 years

Важливі рішення Верховної Ради України: - про можливість отримати вогнепальну зброю громадянами України та іноземцями, які хочуть захищати Україну #ЗП7120 - про націоналізацію російських активів на території України #ЗП7122

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

1 year

One big conclusion from visiting Turkey hundreds of times since 1987 is that you can have no better friend than a Turk.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

3 years

Nagi Agbal was a decent, honourable man, a good economist and central banker and a patriot trying to do the best for the country. His firing is a This is a ridiculous move by Erdogan and very, very worrying. Markets will give their verdict next week.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

4 years

The better one is clearly in Turkey.

Liana Spyropoulou

@LSpyropoulou

4 years

Two photos of a refugee camp in Europe and another two from a refugee camp in Turkey. Guess which is where.

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Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

3/ Longer term the West will massively cut energy imports from Russia and without investment in pipelines this will be hard to divert east. And sanctions means Russia will be starved of capital to build pipelines.

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