Agathe Demarais @AgatheDemarais Twitter profile

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

3 years

Rich countries will get access to coronavirus vaccines first - for poorer ones, the timeline will stretch until 2024 (at the earliest)

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

1 year

🇷🇺 - Sanctions against Russia are very much working [updated with latest data] • Real GDP, retail trade and vehicle manufacturing are all dropping off a cliff • Russia is heading towards ~4% recession in 2022 and in 2023, complicating financing of war in Ukraine

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

2 years

🇷🇺 - Sanctions against Russia are very much working • Real GDP, retail trade and vehicle manufacturing are all dropping off a cliff • Russia is heading towards ~6% recession this year (a worse downturn than after first sanctions in 2014-15)

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

7 months

🇪🇺 - EU will publish list of critical technologies today - a key step to kickstart Europe's de-risking efforts vis à vis China • A short thread with graphs on why this list matters, what we can expect, and what's next for EU de-risking plans 👇🧵 [1/8]

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

1 year

🇨🇳 - China is by far largest buyer of Africa’s mining output • In 2020 China bought 43% of Africa’s minerals exports and 32% of region’s ores and metals exports • Chinese demand for these materials will continue to increase in coming ten years, fuelling investments

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

1 year

🇷🇺 - Sanctions on Russia are working [updated with November data] • Growth, retail trade, vehicle manufacturing all dropping off a cliff (car production fell by 80% in Nov.) • Russia's deep recession will continue in 2023, weighing on Kremlin's ability to wage war in Ukraine

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

1 year

One year after Ukraine's invasion, a growing number of countries side with Moscow • Nearly 70% of global population live in neutral or Russia-leaning countries • Notable shifts towards Russia since March 2022 🇿🇦 South Africa 🇲🇱 Mali 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso 🇹🇷 Turkey 🇶🇦 Qatar 🇧🇴 Bolivia

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

2 years

🇷🇺🇪🇺 - Which countries rely most on Russian gas? • Hungary, Czech Rep, Latvia, Slovakia, Italy top chart (all oppose sanctions on Russian gas) • Sweden, Denmark, Slovenia, Croatia least reliant • Shows how fear of shooting itself in foot explains country-level sanction policy

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

1 year

🇷🇺 - Sanctions on Russia are working [updated with Dec. '22-Jan. '23 data] • Oil & gas extraction recorded big annual drop in January; shows impact of sanctions on oil exports • Russian GDP will not recover to pre-war ('21) level until 2027; highlights depth of economic crisis

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

1 year

🗺️📈📉 - Which OECD economies performed best and worst in 2022? • Top performing 🇬🇷 Greece 🇵🇹 Portugal 🇮🇪 Ireland 🇮🇱 Israel 🇪🇸 Spain 🇲🇽 Mexico 🇨🇦 Canada • Worst performing (all due to war in Ukraine) 🇪🇪 Estonia 🇱🇻 Latvia 🇸🇰 Slovakia 🇨🇿 Czech Rep 🇩🇪 Germany 🇫🇮 Finland 🇸🇪 Sweden

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

5 years

#Turkey - Erdogan announces he will not meet US Vice President Mike Pence tomorrow to discuss ceasefire - Erdogan will only accept to speak directly with Trump #Syria #Kurds #USA

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

1 year

🇨🇴 - Colombia's economy is not in great shape • Central bank was slower than others to hike, resulting in high inflation and overheated economy • Budget and current-account deficits are huge and country is exposed to shifts in market sentiment

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

2 years

🇪🇹 - Ethnic cleansing of Tigrayans may prolong Ethiopia’s civil war • Evidence is emerging of war crimes by forces allied to Abiy Ahmed’s government • Humanitarian situation in region catastrophic, with many people struggling to feed themselves

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

1 year

🇺🇸🇨🇳 - Younger Americans are (much) friendlier to China than their parents • 25% of Americans aged 18-44 view China as an enemy, compared with 52% of those 45 and over • Young Americans also less likely to see Russia as an enemy than their older peers

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

6 months

🇫🇷🇩🇪 - Nuclear dispute is driving a wedge between France and Germany • France wants to count nuclear power towards targets for reducing CO2 emissions & subsidise sector • Berlin fears that low (guaranteed) French electricity prices could weigh on Germany's competitiveness

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

3 months

🇯🇵🇪🇺 - Japan started derisking from China far earlier than western economies • Tokyo has long been (among) world leader(s) for economic security, before it became buzz word • As result Japan's economic reliance on China is low, esp. when compared to EU countries like Germany

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

1 year

🇷🇺 - Sanctions on Russia are working [updated with February '23 data] • Oil, gas, coal extraction recorded annual drops (again) in February, weighing on Kremlin's finances • Russia's GDP will not recover to pre-war ('21) level until 2027 - long-term economic outlook is bleak

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

1 year

Millions of civilians in #Tigray are under blockade & running out of food/medicine • Hundreds of thousands are believed to have died in war, which is about to enter third year • Ethiopia is in no rush to do peace talks as its forces and Eritrean allies make gains on battlefield

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

2 years

🇪🇹 - Ethiopia is not making headlines, but two bloody ethnic revolts rack the country (home to 120m people) • Nobody knows how many have died through murder, ethnic cleansing and famine in Tigray since 2020 • Some researchers reckon death toll could be half a million

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

1 year

🌍🗳️ - Latest edition of @TheEIU Democracy Index is out today 🇹🇭 Thailand registers biggest score improvement 🇨🇱🇫🇷🇪🇸 Chile, France, Spain reclassified as full democracies 🇷🇺 Russia records biggest drop in score, falling close to bottom of ranking (146 out of 167) #DemocracyIndex

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

1 year

Africa will be key region for US, EU & China to secure access to crucial minerals • Region has world's largest reserves of cobalt, diamonds, platinum, bauxite, phosphates, uranium 🇿🇦🇩🇿🇦🇴🇱🇾🇳🇬 - South Africa, Algeria, Angola, Libya, Nigeria, produce ~70% of Africa's mineral output

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

2 years

🇲🇽 - Omicron is coming to Mexico • Country has already recorded among worst death tolls in the world, with over 600,000 excess deaths • Government's fiscal response has been among lowest in Latin America and emerging markets

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

5 months

🗳️ - 2024 is the biggest election year in history • 76 states will hold nationwide elections next year, including: 🇮🇳 India - 1.4bn people 🇺🇸 US - 342m 🇮🇩 Indonesia - 280m 🇵🇰 Pakistan- 245m 🇧🇷 Brazil - 218m 🇧🇩 Bangladesh - 175m 🇷🇺 Russia - 144m 🇲🇽 Mexico - 129m 🇹🇷 Turkey - 86m

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

2 years

🇷🇺🇨🇳 - China will be Russia's sole economic and financial lifeline in coming years • Relationship will be highly unbalanced: China's economy is far bigger than Russia's • Russia is only a minor trading partner for China, giving Beijing leverage in negotiations with Moscow

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

7 months

Asia's economic model is changing fast • "Factory Asia" is increasingly producing for Asian countries, instead of shipping goods to US & Europe • More regional trade means more capital flows across Asia, further deepening region's integration

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

4 months

Africa will be demographic (and economic) powerhouse of next century • Nigeria, Egypt, Tanzania, Ethiopia, DRC will account for over half of global population growth by 2050 • Africa will account for 38% of global population by 2100, with - crucially - young population

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

11 months

🇷🇺 - Another illustration of how Russia's invasion of Ukraine badly backfired • Share of Americans who believe Russia is an enemy stands at 64%, compared to 41% before invasion • Negative view of Russia counts among rare areas of agreement between Democrats and Republicans

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

2 years

🇪🇺 - We @TheEIU have revised our 2023 growth forecasts • Amid high inflation & energy crisis, we expect recessions or zero growth in Europe 🇩🇪 -1% 🇬🇧 -0.6% 🇮🇹 -1.3% 🇪🇺 (EZ) 0% • 🇫🇷 (0.3%) and 🇪🇸 (1.6%) are only big 🇪🇺 economies that we believe will not post recession in 2023

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

3 years

Japan’s financial heft in South-East Asia remains understated; Japan 🇯🇵 is a (far, far) bigger investor in the region’s infrastructure projects than China 🇨🇳

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

3 years

Latest edition of @TheEIU Democracy Index is out - global score has dropped to lowest ever level, as pandemic has led to imposition of sweeping curbs on individual freedoms and civil liberties across the world

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

9 months

🇨🇳 - China imports more agricultural produce than any other country • Country is obsessed with food security and has enormous stockpiles (eg. 18 months for wheat) • Tracking Chinese build up of food reserves could be early indicator of coming war around Taiwan

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

7 months

👋 Some personal news - I'm thrilled to announce that I've joined @ecfr as a senior policy fellow on geoeconomics, with a plan to take @ecfr 's work on sanctions, de-risking, economic fragmentation and many other topics to the next level (yes, this will involve more cool graphs!)

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

1 year

🇷🇺 - Sanctions on Russia are working [updated with December data] • Retail trade and industrial production posted worst contractions since covid-19 hit in early 2020 • Dec. GDP contraction likely huge, but we can only guess as release of data was inexplicably cancelled

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

2 months

🇨🇳🇻🇳🇺🇸 - Correlation between Vietnam’s exports to US and its imports from China is now close to 1 • This suggests that Vietnam increasingly plays role as a transit hub for Chinese exports to US • Situation highlights difficulties of assessing reality (or illusion) of de-risking

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

1 year

🗳️ - Here's @TheEIU 's list of key elections in 2023 • Europe: Spain 🇪🇸, Poland 🇵🇱, Greece 🇬🇷, Cyprus 🇨🇾, Turkey 🇹🇷 • Asia: Pakistan 🇵🇰, Thailand 🇹🇭, Bangladesh 🇧🇩, New Zealand 🇳🇿 • LatAm: Argentina 🇦🇷 and potentially Peru 🇵🇪 • Africa: Nigeria 🇳🇬, Libya 🇱🇾, DRC 🇨🇩, Zimbabwe 🇿🇼

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

2 months

Ahead of the European parliament elections, the popular myth that sanctions hurt Europe more than they harm Russia is likely to become (even) more mainstream - as I explain in my latest piece for @ForeignPolicy these claims are wrong and easy to debunk 👇

Claims That Sanctions Hurt Europe More Than Russia Are Wrong

A false narrative is being peddled by the Kremlin and its Western friends.

foreignpolicy.com

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

1 year

🇷🇺🇮🇳 - India's trade with Russia has ballooned in 2022 • Russia has become India's largest supplier of oil, surpassing Iraq • India shares Russia's goal to increase payments in local currencies in bid to bypass dollar (and sanctions)

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

2 months

🇨🇳 - While western countries de-risk from China, the rest of the world is turning to Beijing • Chinese firms now export more to developing economies than to US, EU and Japan • China's trade push also comes with long-term investment plans, notably in southeast Asia

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

1 year

This paper is a must-read to understand how Moscow has adapted to Western sanctions on energy exports - a 🧵with notes and graphs 👇 Via - @elinaribakova @IIF @ben_hilgenstock @KSE_Institute @TaniaBabina @Columbia_Biz @mironov_fm @IEBusiness @itskhoki @UCLA [1/7]

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

1 year

🇷🇺 - Russia has deep pockets of support, esp. in developing countries • Most people around the world live in countries that are neutral or Russia-leaning regarding war in Ukraine • Russia will court emerging countries in coming years, using economic diplomacy and disinformation

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

5 months

🇨🇳 - China's CO2 emissions could peak this year (or reasonably soon) Beijing is building nuclear-power stations faster than any other country China invests heavily in renewable energy, supporting its ambition to be (sole) global leader for clean tech #COP28

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

5 months

🇫🇷🥐🥖 - France is, by far, leading European destination for foreign direct investment • In 2022 France attracted more FDI projects than any other European country (for fourth consecutive year) • Paris is also winning EU race to lure financial services from post-Brexit Britain

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

1 year

🇺🇸🇨🇳 - How US-China decoupling looks in practice • In tech field, China's semiconductor imports are dropping as country indigenises technology • In financial field, investments involving US private-equity/VC companies in China are at record-lows

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

3 months

🚢 - Red Sea disruptions highlight importance of global maritime chokepoints • Top five critical hotspots include 🇨🇳🇻🇳🇹🇼🇵🇭🇮🇩 South China Sea (30% of global trade) 🇲🇾🇮🇩🇸🇬🇹🇭 Malacca Strait (28%) 🇬🇧🇫🇷 English channel (24%) 🇬🇧🇪🇸🇲🇦 Gibraltar Strait (23%) 🇨🇳🇯🇵🇰🇷🇹🇼 East China Sea (21%)

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

1 year

Brilliant, timely cover of @TheEconomist this week

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

1 year

Must-read paper on the impact of sanctions on Russian oil exports - a quick summary 🧵with notes, key takeaways and (lots of) graphs 👇 Via - @elinaribakova @ben_hilgenstock @TaniaBabina @mironov_fm @itskhoki @Nataliia_Shapo @KSE_Institute Link: [1/9]

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

2 years

War in Ukraine will push up food and energy prices across Europe • Personal savings are not enough to absorb income squeeze, especially in southern Europe (🇵🇹🇪🇸🇮🇹🇬🇷) • Poorer households to be hit hardest, as they spend higher proportion of income on food/energy

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

5 months

🇨🇳 - China is (by far) the sole world leader for clean tech • China accounts for ~70-80% of global production for parts used in batteries, wind and solar energy • China's edge looks solid: country accounts for 90+% of global investment in clean tech manufacturing

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

9 months

🇪🇺 - Europe's de-risking plans will be hard to implement in practice • Huge share of spare parts for EU's manufacturing sector (eg. automotive) are imported from China • China's global edge in electric-vehicle sector means that this trend will likely deepen in coming years

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

4 months

🇷🇺 - Inflation is climbing (again) fast in Russia • Fiscal stimulus stood at ~5% of GDP in 2023, a level higher than that recorded during covid pandemic • Russia's war economy cannot absorb higher demand and is now showing clear signs of overheating

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

4 months

🇮🇩🇹🇭🇵🇭🇲🇾🇸🇬🇻🇳🇧🇳🇰🇭🇱🇦🇲🇲 - Southeast Asian economies are growing fast • In 2000 combined GDP of ASEAN members was equivalent to 30% of Japan’s GDP (in real terms) • By last year figure was 72%, fuelling willingness of ASEAN states to play bigger diplomatic role in region

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

3 months

🇻🇳 - Vietnam is benefitting from China+1 strategy of many multinationals • Country offers lots of tax incentives, good security environment and cheap, well-trained workers • In 2023 FDI flows to Vietnam were twice higher than in Indonesia, Philippines or Thailand (as % of GDP)

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

1 month

🇮🇳🇪🇺 - India's stance at Abu Dhabi @wto summit holds key lessons for EU trade policy - global resentment is rising against Europe's green trade tools and developing economies have leverage to retaliate against such measures - here's my latest for @ecfr 👇

Forget about Trump: Why Europeans should start worrying about trade tensions with emerging economies

India’s tough stance at the World Trade Organisation’s ministerial conference in Abu Dhabi illustrates emerging economies’ rising resentment towards EU trade policies

ecfr.eu

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

11 months

🇩🇪 - Three decades after fall of Berlin Wall, Germany remains deeply divided • ~75% of east Germans reject idea that US is reliable partner and that military aid to Ukraine should rise • Socio-economic divisions also deep, with huge disparities across country

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

1 year

🇬🇧🇫🇷🇩🇪 - Striking comparison between British, French and German cities • London is about as rich as Paris, but Manchester is poorer than most medium-sized cities in 🇫🇷🇩🇪 • Highlights fact that UK's economic problems will be solved (or not) outside London, in England's north

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

1 year

🇬🇷 - Greece will soon hold crucial parliamentary elections • Country's economy is a success story, with decent growth and low spreads • In 2022 Greece grew twice faster than euro zone average, attracting big stream of foreign investment

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

10 months

🇬🇧 - British children seem to be getting smaller, and this may be due to bad diets • British five-year-olds are among smallest in Europe, with situation especially acute in poorer households • Poorest fifth of UK households would need to spend half of income to eat healthy diet

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

2 years

🇹🇷 - Turkey may well be grippling with triple-digit inflation • Official government estimates put annual inflation at around 80%, and still climbing • Yet some researchers believe inflation is closer to 160%, with most Turks agreeing with these data

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

5 months

🇨🇳 - Chinese state owns around half of China's 100 biggest companies • Share of firms owned by Chinese government has been rising since 2020 • Public involvement is esp. strong for critical economic sectors, eg. energy, finance, transport and technology

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

13 days

🇨🇳 - Could China be the (real) world leader for de-risking? • Over past years China's reliance on US and Europe as key export destinations has been on declining trend • Meanwhile, share of exports to emerging markets - incl. India, Russia, Thailand, Latin America - is rising

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

3 years

@Alistair_SBD Hello, The definition is "widely available for the general population" (ie not at-risk groups or elderly, who will often have priority access)

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

2 years

🇺🇦 - Which countries are sending largest share of their stocks of weapons to Ukraine? • As percentage of countries' own stocks, largest arms donors are: 🇳🇴 Norway 🇨🇿 Czech Rep. 🇵🇱 Poland 🇸🇮 Slovenia 🇬🇧 UK 🇩🇪 Germany 🇫🇷 France 🇳🇱 Netherlands 🇱🇻 Latvia 🇨🇦 Canada 🇵🇹 Portugal 🇺🇸 US

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

3 years

China will become world's largest economy in early 2030s, surpassing US - a look at @TheEIU projections for US 🇺🇸, China 🇨🇳, India 🇮🇳 and Japan 🇯🇵 paints striking picture of global economic reshuffling by 2050

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

1 year

🇨🇳 - Global manufacturing firms are eyeing Asian alternatives to China • Tensions with US are only one aspect of problem: rising costs in China are also key issue • Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia and Philippines among beneficiaries of China + 1 strategy of multinationals

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

1 year

'Backfire' is out worldwide today @ColumbiaUP - it is an accout of the unintended side effects of modern US sanctions and export controls, explaining how they are reshaping the global economic, technological and diplomatic landscape

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

5 months

🇷🇺 - Must-read study from @BOFITresearch 's Heli Simola on Russia's sanctions evasion - quick thread with graphs and key takeaways [1/6] 🧵👇 (spoiler - Russia manages to get some - but not all - the tech it needs and it pays a huge premium for it)

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

4 months

🇨🇳 - China's global investment push includes focus on port infrastructure • Beijing's port investments highlight Chinese bid to secure access to critical inputs/raw materials • Strategy explains Chinese focus on ports in Africa's resource-rich states, notably around Guinea Gulf

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

4 months

🇨🇳 - Loans to developing economies are key driver of China's renminbi internationalisation • Share of global Chinese loans in renminbi has soared from 6% in 2013 to 50% in 2021 • Most global loans to low- and middle-income states are now denominated in renminbi, with US$ second

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

1 year

Migrants are sending record sums to Latin America, providing hugeboost to local economies 🇲🇽 - Mexico now receives more remittances than China (>US$60bn last year) 🇭🇳🇸🇻🇭🇹🇯🇲 - In Honduras, El Salvador, Haiti and Jamaica remittances represent >20% of GDP

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

9 months

🇨🇳🇯🇵🇰🇷🇹🇼 - Asian countries, led by China, produce about half of global manufacturing output • Chinese firms produce ~30% of global goods - more than US, Japan & Germany combined • China's labour productivity gap with advanced Asian economies (eg Taiwan & South Korea) is falling

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

1 year

🇺🇸🇨🇳 - Must-read IMF report on the economic costs of geopolitical fragmentation (aka US-China decoupling) - in a nutshell, a decoupled global economy will be a poorer one, with emerging economies most at risk 🧵A thread, with graphs & takeaways [1/10] 👇

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@AgatheDemarais

2 years

War in Ukraine is fuelling food prices globally • Poorer countries, notably in Africa, will be most affected by higher food prices • Situation will fuel global food insecurity - coupled with climate change, this raises the risk of famines

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

3 years

Covid-19’s second wave has devastated eastern European countries - They now have some of the world’s worst excess-mortality rates

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

3 months

🇨🇳 - China is derisking from US and EU just as much as Washington and Brussels are derisking from China • For first time in 2023 China exported more to Asean countries than to US or EU • Data also confirm China's growing importance as main trade partner for most Asian economies

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

2 years

Why #Omicron means trouble in emerging countries • AstraZeneca, Sinovac, Sinopharm jabs seem to give no protection against Omicron • These jabs make up ~70% of shots used worldwide, esp in developing states • Poor countries cannot finance boosters; vaccine hesitancy could rise

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

5 years

Almost no HongKonger aged below 30 identifies as Chinese

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

6 months

🇺🇸🇪🇺 - US is miles ahead of Europe when it comes to investment • More venture capital and deeper capital markets make it easier for US firms to finance expansion • Top-notch US research universities also fuel R&D by agglomerating world-class expertise

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

11 months

Reading the news these days, one would be forgiven to think Moscow is easily skirting sanctions - the reality is different, and I debunk a few sanctions evasion myths in my latest for @ForeignPolicy

No, Russia Is Not Massively Skirting Sanctions

Eight takeaways about Russian evasion of Western sanctions.

foreignpolicy.com

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

5 months

🇷🇺 - Russia's oil revenues are rebounding and that is bad news for Ukraine • Russia increasingly manages to dodge G7/EU oil price cap through ghost fleet of oil tankers • Sanctions on Moscow's access to energy tech will be most effective measures, but they'll take time to bite

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

9 months

European companies have suffered around €100bn in losses in Russia since Ukraine's invasion • 🇩🇪 & 🇫🇷 firms have incurred highest losses, esp in automotive/chemicals sectors • Leaving Russia fast was best strategy; firms that remain in country face expropriation/asset seizures

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

4 years

Striking chart on FDI flows to #Bangladesh from #China and #India - until three years ago inflows from China and India were roughly equivalent - now inflows from China are more than 12 times higher, illustrating China's rising influence in South Asia

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

4 years

Really great timeline from @LowyInstitute on how #China gradually displaced #US as main trading partner for most countries

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

2 months

🇷🇺 - Russia's gamble to cut off gas to EU is backfiring, with Gazprom's business model in tatters • Gazprom's profits slumped in 2023, weighing on Moscow's fiscal revenues • Russian gas pipelines are configured to serve Europe, making it hard for Gazprom to find other customers

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

1 year

Which economies will grow the fastest by 2050? 🇰🇪 Kenya 🇮🇳 India 🇻🇳 Vietnam 🇧🇩 Bangladesh 🇵🇭 Philippines 🇮🇩 Indonesia 🇦🇴 Angola 🇿🇦 South Africa 🇳🇬 Nigeria 🇮🇱 Israel 🇪🇬 Egypt 🇨🇺 Cuba 🇯🇴 Jordan 🇧🇭 Bahrain 🇨🇷 Costa Rica 🇦🇪 UAE 🇲🇦 Morocco 🇵🇰 Pakistan 🇵🇪 Peru 🇲🇾 Malaysia

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

6 months

🇺🇸🇪🇺 - Gap between US and European economies is widening (to US advantage) • US investment levels are way above those registered in Europe, giving America global R&D edge • US economy has benefitted from huge covid stimulus spending while impact of war in Ukraine has been low

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

8 months

After six fantastic years I'm leaving @TheEIU , where I've had the privilege to work with an amazing bunch of brilliant people (who kindly prepared this fabulous farewell cover) - I'll now take some time off before starting a new, exciting adventure (more soon!)

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

3 years

[Updated map with latest data] Divide between richer and poorer countries for access to coronavirus vaccines is stark - Rich countries will get access to shots first - for poorer ones, the timeline will stretch well beyond 2023

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

1 year

Sanctions are having a huge impact on the Russian economy, and things will likely get (much) worse for the Kremlin next year - my latest on the effectiveness of Western sanctions against Russia for @ForeignPolicy 👇

Sanctions on Russia Are Working. Here’s Why.

The Kremlin’s ability to wage war is already constrained, but the worst is yet to come.

foreignpolicy.com

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

9 months

Which countries stand to lose the most from collapse of Black Sea grain deal? • Biggest importers of grains via the deal were 🇨🇳 China 🇪🇸 Spain 🇹🇷 Turkey 🇮🇹 Italy 🇪🇬 Egypt • Russia will seek to use increased domestic export capacity to boost grain exports to emerging countries

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

2 months

🇲🇾 - Malaysia is one of the surprise winners from US-China chip wars • Penang state attracted US$12.8bn in FDI in 2023, more than total it received in 2013 to 2020 • Malaysia is already world’s sixth largest microchip exporter, and the biggest chip supplier to the US

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

1 year

🇷🇺 - Many developing countries rely on Russian wheat, metals, fertilisers and sunflower oil • Given sanctions, Moscow will reorient trade towards Global South, deepening its dependence on Russia • Moscow will not hesitate to weaponise interdependence to advance its interests

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

1 year

🇨🇳 - For the first time since 1960s, China’s population is shrinking • China's long reign as world’s most populous country is probably at an end, with India taking first place • China's bleak demographic prospects will also have key implications for long-term economic growth

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

1 year

@russeurope I appreciate you're trying to save face and explain your mistake. No reputable economist is using your data. The official sources I'm sharing are the internally recognised ones. If you'd like to apologise, I'm all ears.

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

5 years

On April 9th New York City declared public health emergency, making vaccination against measles mandatory in parts of Brooklyn where cases have been concentrated - residents were given 48 hours to comply or pay a US$1,000 fine

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

1 year

🇨🇬🇲🇬🇿🇲🇳🇦🇿🇦 - US is trying to break China’s grip on African minerals • US moves show America's concerns re: China (and Russia's) increasing presence in African mining • US also wants to develop non-Chinese sources of minerals for its own industrial sector

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

1 year

Must-read study from @BOFITresearch 's Heli Simola on Russian trade - here's a quick thread with graphs and key takeaways [1/8] (spoiler - official Russian trade data have become unreliable, and Beijing is not helping Moscow) 👇🧵

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

4 years

Latest @TheEIU Democracy Index is out • #Norway , #Iceland , #Sweden , #NewZealand , #Finland make up top five • Only 5.7% of world population lives in full democracy • More than 30% of world population under authoritarian rule • #Chad , #Syria , #CAR , #DRC , #NorthKorea bottom five

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

1 year

@russeurope My data are correct Russia's GDP is down by 4% year on year in November Industrial production is down by 1.8%, as you say Source: official Russian statistics (screenshot below) The consensus among forecasters is for a recession in 2023

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

1 year

🇸🇦 - Saudi economy is changing • Non-oil revenues are accounting for increasingly large share of government receipts • Highlights some successes to diversify economy away from oil, although much remains to be done

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Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

1 year

🇩🇪🐆 - KAL's cartoon in @TheEconomist this week

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