HML_Compounder @HML_Compounder Twitter profile

Last Seen Profiles

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@stwmaniax

@AsraaAlaa14

@pawxucing

@lizvros

HML_Compounder

@HML_Compounder

3 years

@jimcramer How does one find out readily what variant they got?

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@HML_Compounder

1 year

@crazyclipsonly Only 19 months? Attempted murder should’ve been the charge. That person needs to be locked away forever.

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@HML_Compounder

2 years

@dajevtic @CryptoCapo_ @SBF_FTX He's a notable scam artist.

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@HML_Compounder

2 years

@KYRRadio Sorry but I would bet quite a bit that there is a math error in here somewhere. You sure you aren't paying more per month in your calc?

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@HML_Compounder

2 years

"You should NEVER hold a levered ETF unless you are day trading!!!" We've all heard this advice, but is it really true? Let's dig in. Sure, you shouldn't go 100% into $UPRO... you'll end up matching the S&P500, but with nearly 100% drawdowns and crazy volatility. (cont)

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@HML_Compounder

1 year

PSA: All of AQR's mutual funds now have a $1 minimum at IBKR. I see some neat portfolios in a lot of my alternative-loving friend's futures...

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@HML_Compounder

3 years

@JoeBiden Then tax wealth not earnings. Your plan as proposed impacts the middle class far more than the ultra wealthy. But you already knew that…

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@HML_Compounder

2 years

@isle_mcelroy @_pem_pem Overnight soak.

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@HML_Compounder

3 years

Awesome update on one of my favorite charts from JPM. US small-cap value not only got cheaper relative to growth this quarter, but it is cheaper on an absolute basis too (now only 92.5% of 20-year avg fwd. P/E!).

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@HML_Compounder

3 years

@BobSheranko @litcapital First they came for the billionaires, and I did not speak out…

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@HML_Compounder

2 years

@macrocephalopod lol "... in June 2020, an Archegos employee asked Mr. Hwang if the rising price of ViacomCBS shares was a “sign of strength.” Mr. Hwang responded: “No. It is a sign of me buying,” followed by a laughing emoji."

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@HML_Compounder

1 year

Happy Friday.

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@HML_Compounder

2 years

@EpsilonTheory Monday? I thought the advantage was that you could trade crypto 24/7...

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@HML_Compounder

3 years

@SenWarren Holy shit I can’t believe this isn’t a parody account. Please tell me you were hacked. Please. Pretty please. With sugar on top.

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@HML_Compounder

9 months

@MattLaciskey Harsh Reality: If you're rational and of any age, you shouldn't focus on dividend investing

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@HML_Compounder

1 year

Buy small-value.

Roberto Rojas

@rblue215

1 year

10 year low for $IWM / $QQQ

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@HML_Compounder

3 years

@ohcapideas 0% interest on that savings. Not going to make it. You need more jpegs.

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@HML_Compounder

2 years

Hey friends, the world is righting itself!

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@HML_Compounder

1 year

@Scoobacca @lukeisamazing It’s also MUCH easier to hold internal pressure, like in space, structurally. External pressure is a much trickier problem. You could press the tank up internally to a much higher value than the ocean bottom pressure.

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@HML_Compounder

1 year

Never seen a more thorough analysis of dividend strategies. Did they beat the market? Yes. Should you use them? Absolutely not. "The total return attributable to a dividend is zero." Stellar work @RoniIsraelov , Yin, @NDVRWealth !

Income Illusions: Challenging the High Yield Stock Narrative | NDVR

While stocks with high dividends have historically outperformed those with low dividends, we show that the difference can be completely explained by a set of well-known factors including value,...

ndvr.com

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HML_Compounder

@HML_Compounder

3 years

@Keubiko Paint is heavy. By utilizing only 1/2 of a coat @Tesla has revolutionized the power/weight ratio of the modern car, providing superior mileage and acceleration. It is a feature, you're welcome.

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@HML_Compounder

1 year

@Jack_Raines One of your best yet.

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@HML_Compounder

3 years

@royce_of @tumtonks

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@HML_Compounder

1 year

Impossible?? This is my base case.

Eric Balchunas

@EricBalchunas

1 year

This chart blows my mind, for the entire 2000s EM and Small Cap Value were up over 100% each while SPX and Nasdaq were down. It seems so imposs today that this could happen for a year or two let alone a full decade, but I guess it can happen..

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@HML_Compounder

3 years

@midtown_rob Recently had a large liquidity event at work. 2 coworkers paid off their homes in one swift motion. I bought value funds and levered up modestly at 1.2%. We are not the same.

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@HML_Compounder

3 years

@markminervini @JamesLawicki This thread is quite literally starting with you taking time out of your day to do something unnecessary because of “trolls”. Grow up. You turned a 1-day meme into a perpetual definition of who you are.

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@HML_Compounder

1 year

Some fantastic plots in this months newsletter for the value lovers out there.

Avantis Investors

@avantisinvestor

1 year

Written with your clients in mind. Get the latest from our Monthly Field Guide: . #investing #investmentoutlook

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HML_Compounder

@HML_Compounder

5 months

Managed-futures (trend specifically) and enough cash (t-bills, very short-duration bonds) to cover near-term needs is a much better substitute for bonds in a diversified portfolio.

Darren 🥚🐣🕊️

@ReformedTrader

5 months

"The stock-bond correlation switch is the ultimate diversification regime shift. You don't have as great a need for alternatives when the correlation is negative. Investor search for diversification should be at a heightened level."

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@HML_Compounder

2 years

@moizali How is this too poor for wealth management?

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@HML_Compounder

2 years

@the__dude1 @Jets_Fan_96 @stoolpresidente They’re $40 watches…

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@HML_Compounder

1 year

@KianaDanial So much wrong with this. You get the same dividends when using index funds. The “spoiled fruit” (value stocks) outperformed historically. Great advice if you want to underperform while taking way more risk…

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HML_Compounder

@HML_Compounder

1 month

@Samwashusa @Itamer396200 @DrewPavlou Remind me how Israel responded to that attack? Remind me what they hit exactly, deep within Iran, with a single projectile?

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@HML_Compounder

3 years

@scotttmorton This sentiment is why value will work again.

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@HML_Compounder

2 years

Fun/quick piece from @AuspiceCapital on return-stacking, specifically with CTAs. My only qualm... drop the static bonds :).

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HML_Compounder

@HML_Compounder

1 year

Amazing visual. Just because the business outperforms doesn’t mean the equity will; For that to take place, it must outperform expectations too.

The Idea Farm

@TheIdeaFarm

1 year

Phenomenal visualization from @ckaiwu showing a great company isn't always a great investment "...in periods of euphoria, the market has a tendency not only to price in potential growth but also to greatly over-extrapolate it."

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@HML_Compounder

10 months

This concept sums up my entire investment thesis. I’m not smarter than the market, but I am more stubborn and able to sit through pain than most participants. Value, trend, some patience, and it’ll all work out.

Jack Forehand

@practicalquant

10 months

We asked Jim O'Shaughnessy whether he is worried about factor strategies not working as more assets pour into them. He reminded us that as long as human nature doesn't change, they are probably in good shape. Full episode:

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@HML_Compounder

9 months

Many folks make the mistake of assuming a combination of two strategies/funds cannot have a higher return than either fund alone. Not only can you get higher returns, but also with less volatility/drawdown!

Eric Nelson, CFA

@ServoWealth

9 months

Which has had higher long-term returns: US value stocks or international value stocks? Neither. A 70/30 mix of each (rebalanced annually) did best with less volatility than either one by itself. Wow.

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@HML_Compounder

1 year

@miamimikeclark @Thefrugalgay11 Sir you were fined either way. It’s called a $150 cleaning fee.

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@HML_Compounder

2 years

Wow, Avantis coming out with a global value ETF is pretty legit. Total ex-US value too. Lot of folks have been asking for a global SCV fund, but at-least this is something.

Jeffrey Ptak

@syouth1

2 years

Avantis has filed to register the following new Avantis ETFs: All Equity Mkts Value (0.26% exp. ratio) Intl Small Cap Equity (0.30%) Mod. Allocation (0.21%) Total Intl Mkts Equity (0.31%) Total Intl Mkts Value (0.34%) US Lrg Cap Equity (0.15%)

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@HML_Compounder

3 years

@BobbyVanD22 @RampCapitalLLC He/Him/His/Pfizer

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@HML_Compounder

2 years

@jasondebolt Paper losses are a fallacy. You lost $13M in a year.

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@HML_Compounder

3 years

@itnor1 @RonAdam64965153 @POTUS Market prices adjust to costs. If the corporation has higher costs, they must raise the prices to maintain the same margins. This is basic stuff, and yes Congress (at the President's request) can absolutely control a corporations costs.

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@HML_Compounder

1 year

Time for a twitter-detox... those that know who HmL really is know where to find me. For everyone else... keep buying cheap stocks for me (but don't sort them on dividend yield alone!)...

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@HML_Compounder

10 months

Great overview of my investment philosophy (even if I have added a touch of equity momo since this interview... 😅). Thanks again for asking great questions, and for refreshing the art Samuel!

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@HML_Compounder

2 years

@LynAldenContact For this particular application would a stablecoin tied to the global reserve currency not be a better solution? Problem there is that nobody wants to support something that can't go to the moon...

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@HML_Compounder

2 years

@CATOtheCENSOR_ @ValueStockGeek You can be short CA and net long America.

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@HML_Compounder

4 years

@robinhorwitz @awealthofcs They’re supposed to speculate future cash flows but right now they simply speculate on how long idiots will keep buying their shares back at higher prices.

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@HML_Compounder

1 year

Favorite chart to explain my conviction in the value factor/premium. "As long as human nature doesn't fundamentally change, we can continue to arbitrage the pricing inefficiencies it creates.” "Arbitraging human nature is the last sustainable edge." both ^ @jposhaughnessy

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@HML_Compounder

2 years

Someone recently said that manage-futures/trend products without equities (KMLM for example) would not protect as well in an equity drawdown (no equity shorts) so I decided to setup a little backtest to demonstrate that this at-least historically has not been the case...

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@HML_Compounder

11 months

@alexisxrivas @SustainableTall Why would markets necessarily care about climate goals? No economic incentive there, unless you’re suggesting they tax shorter flights? That doesn’t really sound like letting markets figure it out though.

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HML_Compounder

@HML_Compounder

27 days

With all the hate I see on here lately, how did this simple short-hand for "yes please" in response to wanting access to an investment fund get me temp-banned for violent speech?!? Am I missing some slang here? How do I avoid another (presumably more severe) strike? Do better X.

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@HML_Compounder

2 years

Haven't posted one of these in a while, but this one sure is pretty... Even prettier ex-US!

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HML_Compounder

@HML_Compounder

1 year

Managed-futures (multi-asset long/short trend more specifically) is a much more regime independent equity diversifier. Skip the bonds. Just hold enough cash/short-term to sleep at night.

Pim van Vliet

@paradoxinvestor

1 year

Are we overestimating the diversification potential of bonds versus equities? This graph shows the stock-bond correlation was positive until the 1980s. Will it be +0.3 or -0.3 going forward? Link to full paper (July 2023)

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HML_Compounder

@HML_Compounder

7 months

Very unique trend fund/program. 50% economic trend (great blog on that below), a good bit of alternative trend including their proprietary quant-factors, and an impressive 15% volatility (hefty given their diversification) for only 1.67% ER.

Nick

@Nicholas_Meyers

7 months

Cliff Asness talking about AQR’s trend program. $QMHIX.

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HML_Compounder

@HML_Compounder

2 years

Awesome tool out from the folks at Counterpoint. Includes long/short spread on value, profitability, and volatility but I was most intrigued to see a historical long-only value plot. Very cheap in small-caps, not so much in large... h/t: @DanielRyanWM

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HML_Compounder

@HML_Compounder

2 months

Trend Frends! Great chat with the portfolio manager for Mt. Lucas, a relatively quiet but unique firm with a 36 year track record on their index. They run one of my favorite trend funds, $KMLM, with high vol/skew, relatively low cost, and no equities (more commodities!)

Richard Brennan

@RichB118

2 months

🚀 New Episode Alert! 🎧 Dive into the latest episode of The Algorithmic Advantage with @QuantiveAlpha and I featuring @DaveAspell from Mount Lucas Management LP! 🌟 Discover the secrets behind their groundbreaking strategies, the history of Commodities Corp, and how they master

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@HML_Compounder

2 years

@GunnelsWarren @Twitter how is this not flagged for being misleading? Comparing inflation adjusted wages to nominal everything else is outrageous. Delete this now.

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HML_Compounder

@HML_Compounder

2 years

Fast drawdown protection is one area my portfolio lacks. Long drawdown? I’m sitting pretty. Recent area of interest… not sure the solutions are as elegant (negative carry).

Aaron Filbeck, CAIA, CFA, CFP®, CIPM, FDP

@filbeck_a

2 years

Your downside protection strategies should look very different depending on the length of the drawdown, according to @AQRCapital . Fast drawdown? Tail-hedging. Long drawdown? Trend-following. Read the paper below. @CliffordAsness

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@HML_Compounder

1 year

@limguangjian @RoaringHammy @cctvidiots Of course. “a round plane figure whose boundary (the circumference) consists of points equidistant from a fixed point (the center)."

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@HML_Compounder

2 years

@CNaesseth @CliffordAsness Shows his point quite well. So why didn’t he post this? Bizarre.

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@HML_Compounder

2 years

@dougboneparth I mean this is a funny tweet but it’s pretty obvious that wasn’t his point. Was just saying on west coast you can trade before going into a normal 9-5. While that doesn’t automatically generate alpha, it is true.

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HML_Compounder

@HML_Compounder

3 years

@jessesingal Pan’s Labyrinth is up there for me. Moving, action packed, and visually amazing. Part way in I forget I’m reading subtitles.

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@HML_Compounder

1 year

Credit card points are in fact free money (funded by those carrying a balance). Dividends are not. Terrible take...

Finance Guy

@GuyTalksFinance

1 year

I’m convinced people who use Credit Cards for Reward Points Are the same people who invest into a stock based on the Dividend Yield

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@HML_Compounder

2 years

@BullandBaird Must be because there are more than 100% of shares out there due to shorting.

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HML_Compounder

@HML_Compounder

9 months

Long live value. The best is ahead of us.

metacognition_capital

@meta_cognitive

9 months

After Wealthfront ($50B AUM), its now Betterment's ($40B AUM) turn to capitulate on the value factor, in the name of "Capital Market Assumptions". Paradoxically, such decisions contribute to the value factor persisting over the long run.

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@HML_Compounder

10 months

@bosonsparticle @shailjapatel You’re right. It doesn’t. You’re so close. Keep thinking on it…

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@HML_Compounder

2 years

@MarkLeibman @Bitfinexed Sir the LME would like to have a word about your nickel trades a few weeks back. But real talk, this is false. They can and have. Also happens often when there’s a flash crash due to user error. LME is worst example ever though as prices were legit.

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@HML_Compounder

1 year

Couldn’t explain it any better myself. Long-only equities, long/short trend on everything else.

Why No Equities in KMLM Managed Futures ETF? - KFA Funds

The KFA Mount Lucas Managed Futures Index Strategy ETF (Ticker: KMLM) does not include an allocation to equities. Many of our trend follower competitors do include them, and as a result, we get asked...

kfafunds.com

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HML_Compounder

@HML_Compounder

1 year

Congrats to Corey and the Resolve team! While this fund will certainly provide a unique solution to those looking to get a small trend-overlay efficiently, it is also the most juiced up equity+trend product out there for us leverage-lunatics. Everybody wins!

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

@choffstein

1 year

Introducing the Return Stacked® U.S. Stocks & Managed Futures ETF – RSST. The ETF seeks to provide $1 of U.S. large-cap equity exposure and $1 of a managed futures strategy for every $1 invested. Learn more at .

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@HML_Compounder

2 years

People love to focus on the risk-based explanations for why the value factor works, but I am a strong believer in the behavioral side and this chart does a great job of showing why. Humans just can't help but over-extrapolate good and bad results!

Systematic Microcaps ⚙️

@systvest

2 years

Always be sceptical of forward multiples and long-term growth estimates. Analysts tend to anchor to previous resulting in overestimation (underestimation) of future Glamour (Value) stock earnings growth.

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@HML_Compounder

8 months

A stock does well when its business outperforms expectations, not when it outperforms other businesses. Same is applicable to the US equity market vs. the world. Higher fundamental output, but higher expectations too...

JL Collins

@JLCollinsNH

8 months

I've frequently said the time might come when the US will no longer be dominate enough to hold just VTSAX. At that point I'd move to VTWAX. But I don't see that happening anytime soon. My best guess, is the US will continue to dominate for another 10-20 years, maybe longer.

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@HML_Compounder

1 year

Amazing how SCV was considered the holy grail during the 2000's (market was flat), and then described as dead during the 2010's (market did 14%), even though it had the same CAGR. SCV is actually a smoother ride if your baseline isn't the market. Absolute > relative returns.

Eric Nelson, CFA

@ServoWealth

1 year

Small cap value has done about the same since 2010 as it did from 2000-2009. It’s the market that’s had the busts & booms. Better to hold both.

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@HML_Compounder

3 years

@Alex__Pitti @TheNarrenschiff Pls clarify? Sentiment is what causes people to commit suicide, other than that chart you keep posting, what is your point?

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@HML_Compounder

2 years

@HedgeyeComm @Hedgeye Nope, we are getting setup for value’s great run of the 2020’s to really get started.

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@HML_Compounder

1 year

Two stocks have a P/B of 1, but one is twice as profitable. Which is riskier? Novy-Marx would argue the more profitable one, otherwise the market wouldn’t price it as cheaply.

Jarrott Heath

@JarrottHeath

1 year

I've run the numbers, read the research, and agree that Quality appears to be statistically significant. But I don't understand the accompanying logic. Unlike other factors that are 'risk' premia, why would investors require compensation for buying higher quality, ex-ante?

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@HML_Compounder

2 years

@hubermanlab Well that’s depressing.

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@HML_Compounder

7 months

Way too many people view investments individually rather than at portfolio level (asset-level Sharpe for example is useless in my view). Great visual of how adding a lower-returning asset can actually boost overall returns, and reduce vol/risk.

Taylor Pearson

@TaylorPearsonMe

7 months

However, gold's (non)-correlation to stocks and bonds throughout this period actually made it additive to the overall portfolio despite having the worst stand-alone return. It's a nice example of how diversification works with the inclusion of a lower-return asset actually being

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@HML_Compounder

1 year

I know I can’t outsmart the best minds in the market, so my only edge is to be able to handle the pain better than them (or their clients). This is why I love value. No pain no premium!

Jess Bost, CFP®

@lady__bost

1 year

Would’ve said “value investing” but after two years I’m convinced people do it FOR the pain, not in spite of it

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@HML_Compounder

1 year

Oh can't wait to read this! They've teased their economic trend approach in prior Macro Momentum paper, and also in this podcast... Great way to diversify a managed-futures system without giving up on convexity of "pure trend".

TTU135: Yao Hua Ooi, Principal at AQR Capital Management

Today, Yao Hua Ooi joins us to discuss how they use systematic tools like trend following, to take advantage of inefficiencies in markets

www.toptradersunplugged.com

QuantSeeker

@quantseeker

1 year

New paper from the AQR crew of @CliffordAsness on Economic Trend. Following trends in macro fundamentals profits from investor underreaction (as with price trend) and has historically delivered a positive Sharpe across time, assets, and macro themes. Link:

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@HML_Compounder

2 years

@beeks_gregory @SamRo Intentionally. They lose money when flying a less than full plane. They have stats on how many people cancel or miss their flight, so they sell more than they have.

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@HML_Compounder

3 years

@RealMenHaveJoy @natbaker You didn’t adjust for inflation.

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HML_Compounder

@HML_Compounder

1 year

Excellent visual of how returns don't always tell the full story when it comes to portfolio diversification... Two portfolios were nearly identical for years, then...

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

@choffstein

1 year

for 7 years you would’ve just heard, “it’s just an expensive, tax-inefficinet 60/40” behavioral time is different than statistical time (h/t @CliffordAsness ) (h/t @millerak42 for the portfolio)

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@HML_Compounder

1 year

Couldn't stay away too long... going to try to keep my Twitter-time in check, but it is good to be back!

HML_Compounder

@HML_Compounder

1 year

Time for a twitter-detox... those that know who HmL really is know where to find me. For everyone else... keep buying cheap stocks for me (but don't sort them on dividend yield alone!)...

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@HML_Compounder

4 years

@CJ_isnowblue @realDonaldTrump Gilead makes Remdesivir not Regeneron, but nice try.

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HML_Compounder

@HML_Compounder

4 years

@RudyHavenstein @chamath Amen. I am beyond amused that “eventually stocks can trend back to” is followed by “10-20x sales”.

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HML_Compounder

@HML_Compounder

4 months

Incredibly innovative for sure, just like BOXX was. But does this solve anything at all? Seems like marketing fluff, the inverse of manufactured dividends... S&P500 yields what, 1.4% today? Avoid/defer a 15-20% tax-bill on qualified dividends, saving 28bp? What will fund cost?!

Eric Balchunas

@EricBalchunas

4 months

Roundhill filing for “US Equity No Dividend ETF” which will seek to provide the total return stream of the S&P 500 but without any income distributions by using Flex options. Sounds like $BOXX but for SPX

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HML_Compounder

@HML_Compounder

2 years

Taking a little time away from Twitter. I’ll leave you all with some critical market wisdom for the coming weeks. Interpret it wisely! Beta dips, HmL rips, trend flips.

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HML_Compounder

@HML_Compounder

2 years

@CaptainKnots27 @ReedTimmerAccu Here:

JAW-DROPPING Tornado Drone Footage Shows Kansas Town Get Ripped Apart

This extreme, jaw-dropping drone footage shows you the real destruction that a tornado is capable of causing where a town gets completely ripped apart. The e...

www.youtube.com

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HML_Compounder

@HML_Compounder

1 year

I've been on team-diversification, but man is it impressive to see how well you could replicate the SG CTA Index with only the 10 Year Treasury, crude oil, S&P 500, and Euro contracts...

Andrew Beer

@andrewdbeer1

1 year

The diversification debate in managed futures is about to get ugly. @iimag

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HML_Compounder

@HML_Compounder

1 year

Let me try to put some numbers to it in a simplified example. We've got two stocks, V (value) and G (growth). V has no earnings growth, G has a constant 7.2% (earnings double every 10 years). Earnings are distributed to shareholders each decade and reinvested at initial P/E.

David Foulke

@Foulke_David

1 year

@HML_Compounder question for ya. We were talking about how low p/e stocks are better to hold than high p/e, other things being equal, even if value spreads stay elevated. Can you walk me through the rationale on that again?

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HML_Compounder

@HML_Compounder

3 years

@btwatkins @POTUS Amen. This tax bill seems to increase taxes on those already paying their fair share (50%+) while ignoring the actual wealthy/elite who can just borrow against their equity, and never pay a dime of tax (heck, the interest they pay is a tax deduction!!!).

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HML_Compounder

@HML_Compounder

5 months

@lady__bost Can I wake up 2 years older and get $100M?

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HML_Compounder

@HML_Compounder

3 years

@JoeBiden That's great. Sounds like we are out of the woods then, no need for another $4.7T in spending.

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HML_Compounder

@HML_Compounder

1 year

@ExpectedValues Great interview Tobias did on the G score, which is a more recent development with similar function, but starting with the most expensive names on P/B.

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HML_Compounder

@HML_Compounder

7 months

Some nice improvements coming out for $MTUM, namely quarterly rebalance. Too bad $QMOM already beat them to the punch by going monthly!

Ben Johnson, CFA

@MstarBenJohnson

8 months

@EconomPic @syouth1 @choffstein Yes, a few tweaks:

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HML_Compounder

@HML_Compounder

1 year

Once a stock goes ex-dividend (and share price drops), the prior price is no longer relevant. The stock isn't automatically assured to go back to it's ex-div price. Yes, if it does you made money, but it wasn't because of the dividend. Why is this so hard for folks to grasp?

HML_Compounder

@HML_Compounder

1 year

@Flyleafinvest @cadeinvests There is no difference between share price recovering and share price going up for a non-dividend-payer. In both cases, they require a stock gain. Helpful example. $50 stock gives a 90% distribution ($45). Share price drops to $5. You reinvest, now you own 10 $5 shares. (1/x)

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HML_Compounder

@HML_Compounder

6 months

Thanks for having me on @ValueStockGeek !

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