CH @Econimica Twitter profile

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CH

@Econimica

6 months

Just in case you aren't tracking...the US is actively going bankrupt...there is no feasible means to repay or service the demographically driven debt other than print, ZIRP, and QE. Before the end of the decade, the implications will collapse the ability to continue this

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@Econimica

7 months

this time is different than every other time...why?

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@Econimica

1 year

@RobertKennedyJr this is not going to age well for RFK...like, really, really not well.

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@Econimica

6 months

As of year-end 2023, there have never been more housing units than households in US history. Just saying.

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@Econimica

1 year

@TaviCosta black line=tax receipts as a % of federal debt moving to record lows...

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@Econimica

8 months

the elder generation is literally suffocating the life out of the younger generation...in real time. And about to pick another 80+yr/old president to finish off the job.

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@Econimica

5 months

Anybody spend anytime going through the NAR Housing Shortage Tracker? What you may notice are the majority of metro areas (174 actively tracked) deemed to have a housing shortage (I'm using their total shortage tab) are in areas that have long standing depopulation, long standing

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@Econimica

7 months

the situation in Japan is so instructive of what is and what's coming for the US... Japan's Nikkei (stock market, yellow) peaked in 1989 just prior to Japan's working age population (blue, millions) peaking and beginning its secular decline. Bank of Japan dropped their discount

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@Econimica

8 months

How to prove US is in a RE bubble? Take a place like West Virginia with ongoing depopulation, ongoing working age depopulation, ongoing declining employees, collapsing young, vs rising housing units...and check all this against housing prices. What you get is a 1000% bubble

Bloomberg Opinion

@opinion

8 months

The ✨ vibecession ✨ is officially over! 🎥 @kylascan says it’s time to get ready for the “vibespansion”

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@Econimica

8 months

I was recently told that there isn't enough housing, there are multiple studies to that effect. In particular, the NAR has a housing shortage tracker showing the areas in highest "shortage". There are currently 18 cities on this list (using the "total units permitted" tab), and

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@Econimica

7 months

Are home builders part of some conspiracy to under build for decades, forgoing profit to handicap the US housing market? Or perhaps they chose not to build in regions that have little to no population or employment growth and choose to build where there is population and

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@Econimica

11 months

@SteveHarney This sort of industry self serving propaganda is every bit as poor as “doomsday clickbait”. Serve your clients and customers, don’t try to sell them self serving narratives. Panic isn’t/wasn’t the problem, it was/is math.

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@Econimica

1 year

@elerianm El-Erians’ take on this is consensus blowback against an irreparable problem. Truth is this is massively overdue and is so short of what needs be said. Bit lame from a gentleman I’ve listened to with keen interest before.

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@Econimica

5 months

still wondering what may have caused house prices to go insane since 2020???😂😂😂Doesn't seem like it was underbuilding...maybe overstimulation?!?

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@Econimica

2 months

Housing shortage doesn't equal a shortage of physical housing units to physical occupants but instead an excess of cheap $'s in the hands of a minority chasing real assets. There have never been more housing units per capita than now...

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@Econimica

8 months

China is in a demographic collapse unparalleled in human history. Not to acknowledge the incredibly negative collapse of the productive population and still soaring growing liability of elderly population is dumbfounding!?! By 2050...-30% to -40% of under 60yr/old population

Liqian Ren

@liqian_ren

8 months

Many will see China's population decline for 2nd straight year as very negative factor. Population size/growth has almost no correlation with a country's growth. Do people forget China was the largest country last 200+ years and was also one of the poorest?!

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@Econimica

8 months

Interested to hear thoughts on the widening divergence of Case Shiller vs median sales prices of houses sold?!?

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@Econimica

7 months

not sure why this doesn't get a bit more discussion, but it's important to know what the Millennials are...and are not. They are the largest generation in US history, but from a growth perspective, they are not more than a blip compared to relative growth of the Boomers. So,

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@Econimica

5 months

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@Econimica

2 months

What do Dallas and Cleveland have in common? Homes in both are up over 50% since 2020. BTW - # of employees in Dallas are up over 11%...# of employees in Cleveland has declined by 5%. 🤔🤔🤔

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@Econimica

8 months

Hmmm...isn't that weird.

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@Econimica

8 months

@JohnWake shocking...the admittance that is. Not a shock that housing is driven by finance.

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@Econimica

8 months

If too many $'s are created and the price of food goes up...is there a shortage of food? If too many $'s are created and the price of insurance goes up...is there a shortage of insurance? Consider housing units per capita have moved to a new record high (never been more housing

Lance Lambert

@NewsLambert

8 months

Powell says the Fed's inflation fight is NOT all about U.S. home prices "There hasn't been enough housing built", Powell says, suggesting that Fed rate hikes alone can only do so much

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@Econimica

8 months

Generational warfare with elderly leaving no oxygen in the room for the younger generation. Clearly, a growing childbearing population wasn't "supposed" to be seeing a collapse in families/births...but there are clear consequences to terrible monetary/IR policy that pass all

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@Econimica

1 year

@DonMiami3 the sign of recession incoming isn't maximum badness (that's the bottom and sign of upcoming growth potential)...it's max good. Maximum employment, maximum credit, max'ed out potential growth...everything good that could happen being actualized. Trees don't grow to the

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@Econimica

6 months

As US federal debt is soaring, there is often this question, "who is buying (and holding) all that debt"? Based on a quick (and dirty) breakdown of the March 2024 Treasury Bulletin...here are the four groups that hold 100% of US Treasury debt. The surprise may be the soaring

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@Econimica

6 months

😳

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@Econimica

9 months

@profplum99 Prof Plum... 24 months prior to "peak employment" and 24 months post to each "peak employment" for every recession back to 1990. July was this cycles "peak employment" and US continues to roll over...like every other recession since 1990.

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@Econimica

3 months

A housing shortage in Buffalo amid depopulation, declining employment, and rising net housing units should raise some red flags?!? Since 2019, -1% employees (-1% mortgage worthy potential buyers/renters), +59% home prices. There were/are suddenly too few houses or too many $'s

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@Econimica

1 month

neither candidate will seriously address that the US is going bankrupt (but of course, a sovereign country can't really go bankrupt, instead they resort to debasing the currency bankrupting the majority of their citizens).

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@Econimica

6 months

the joke that is the US housing market vs the real world of employment encapsulated by...Cleveland...when a place with ever declining employees, ever declining population, rising housing units is in a housing bubble...you just gotta laugh.

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@Econimica

27 days

Case Shiller 20 metro home prices vs employed persons in each...clown show🤡🤡🤡

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@Econimica

6 months

Some fool just asked me to "let him know when the explosion of debt relative to GDP would matter to the market"?

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@Econimica

8 months

@fuxianyi updated...China continues to follow UN's lowest variants.

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@Econimica

5 months

Change in Employees by Census Region, since YE 2019: South +2.4 million West +0.1 million Northeast -0.3 million Midwest -0.1 million Guess how many net new housing units, since YE 2019, per Census Region? South +3.3 million West +1.5 million Northeast +0.7 million Midwest +0.5

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@Econimica

8 months

@WinfieldSmart dystopian stuff happening in real time.

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@Econimica

5 months

Why would regions with no employee growth (loss actually), places w/ outright depopulation, places with growing net housing units (ATH housing units per capita) appreciate as much and even more than places w/ high population, high jobs, high housing unit growth?!? What would both

CH

@Econimica

5 months

Change in Employees by Census Region, since YE 2019: South +2.4 million West +0.1 million Northeast -0.3 million Midwest -0.1 million Guess how many net new housing units, since YE 2019, per Census Region? South +3.3 million West +1.5 million Northeast +0.7 million Midwest +0.5

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@Econimica

7 months

Every peak in # of new houses sold monthly (white line) has corresponded with a new low in the 30yr mortgage rate (black line). I'd suggest far lower new house sales are coming until a far lower (record low?) mortgage rate is "achieved". Absent this, the engine for the US economy

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@Econimica

7 months

When they say there is a housing shortage, big question should be are we building to fulfil the soaring $ supply or based on potential # of occupants? There have never been more $'s chasing housing units while housing units per capita at all-time highs in all Census regions!?!

Lance Lambert

@NewsLambert

8 months

11 studies, 1 conclusion: The U.S. housing market is underbuilt @MalasMeghan 's first deep dive for @ResidentialClub is a must read 🏡📊

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@Econimica

13 days

what if there were clear, repeatable, finite limits to growth- that no matter how much interest rates were cut or infinite debt spending undertaken - can't be overcome?!?

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@Econimica

1 year

@RobertMSterling Here is the BLS data...the fact that there is no major governmental or like research effort to outline why this is happening (Covid, long-Covid, vaccine injury, fraud, changes in BLS definitions, etc.) seems beyond strange. Since 2021 15-64yr/old population +1.2% (+2.5 million)

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@Econimica

3 years

@coloradotravis @TheStalwart What a sham...as potential population of buyers (15-64yr/olds) r in decline, potential employed still way down, potential sellers soaring (65+yr/olds), and new inventory being created nearing '07 pace...it's all about manipulating 30yr/fixed to create one last frenzy

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@Econimica

4 months

housing units continue to grow significantly faster than households to fill them...housing units per household (black dashed line) likely to surpass the previous 2010 ATH later this year.

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@Econimica

20 days

Gaslighting = manipulate (someone) using psychological methods into questioning their own sanity or powers of reasoning. In this case, think about the narrative of a housing shortage driven real estate affordability crisis...like saying Japan doesn't build enough houses and if

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@Econimica

7 months

what if there was a relationship between US debt to GDP, Federal Funds interest rate, and home prices? Is there ever a limit to how much debt to GDP can be undertaken or how low rates can go? Think we're going to find out!

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@Econimica

1 year

@WinfieldSmart There is 100% certainty that US WILL simply print ad infinitum to pay the interest on the debt. There is 100% certainty that the US CANNOT/WILL NOT repay the debt or interest without Federal counterfeiting the $'s from nothing.

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