Lance Lambert @NewsLambert Twitter profile | Pikagi

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Lance Lambert

@NewsLambert

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@ResidentialClub Co-Founder, Editor-in-Chief. Analyzing the housing market—through a regional lens 🏡 📊 Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter 👇

Cincinnati

https://t.co/nCxlanX6ql

Joined November 2012

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

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@NewsLambert

Lance Lambert

7 months

We are in a historically significant chapter for housing, one that has witnessed affordability deteriorate to levels unseen in decades That's why I just quit Fortune to launch ResiClub, a news and research outlet that'll track the U.S. housing market 🏡📊

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www.resiclubanalytics.com

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@NewsLambert

Lance Lambert

9 months

IF U.S. incomes spiked 69%, we'd return to pre-pandemic housing affordability levels. IF U.S. home prices fell 41%, we'd return to pre-pandemic affordability. IF mortgage rates fell 4.3 percentage points (from 7.26% to 2.96%), we'd return to pre-pandemic affordability.

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Lance Lambert

1 year

We're in the second biggest home price correction of the post-WW II era.

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Lance Lambert

2 months

IF U.S. incomes spiked 69%, we'd return to pre-pandemic housing affordability levels IF U.S. home prices fell 41%, we'd return to pre-pandemic affordability IF mortgage rates fell 4.3 percentage points, we'd return to pre-pandemic affordability To be clear, the "IFs" don't…

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@NewsLambert

Lance Lambert

1 year

Goldman Sachs: "US housing affordability at lowest levels in history"

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Lance Lambert

1 year

Goldman Sachs: 99% of borrowers have a mortgage rate lower than the current market rate

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@NewsLambert

Lance Lambert

11 months

The most interesting housing market in America: Austin. During the '00s housing crash, it took Austin 43 months to fall 8.5% peak-to-trough. This time around, Austin has fallen 10.02% in just 9 months.

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@NewsLambert

Lance Lambert

10 months

Morningstar: "We expect the average mortgage rate to decline to 4.00% by 2025"

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@NewsLambert

Lance Lambert

10 months

Zillow has gone full-blown housing bull. Zillow expects U.S. home prices to rise 6.3% between June 2023 and June 2024. Among the 200 largest housing markets, Zillow thinks 48 markets will see a jump of 7.0% or greater

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@NewsLambert

Lance Lambert

6 months

The mortgage market is experiencing a severe recession. It's one of the worst downturns in mortgage market history. Traditional refi is RIP right now. And this week, mortgage purchase apps hit the lowest level of the post 1995 era. Thread 🧵

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@NewsLambert

Lance Lambert

10 months

Among U.S. mortgage borrowers... 26% have a rate under 3.00% 70.7% have a rate under 4.00% 91% have a rate under 5.00% 96.3% have a rate under 6.00% via @MorningstarInc

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Lance Lambert

7 months

We’d return to pre-pandemic housing affordability IF one of these 3 things happened… U.S. incomes spike 55% U.S. home prices fall 35% Mortgage rates fell 4 percentage points says Andy Walden at @Black_KnightInc

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@NewsLambert

Lance Lambert

2 years

🚨🚨 The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumps to 7.08%. That's the highest rate since 2002.

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Lance Lambert

2 years

🚨 The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumps to 6.23%.

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Lance Lambert

9 months

Zillow: 7.5% mortgage rates won't halt home price growth. Zillow is a full-blown housing bull, forecasting that U.S. home prices will rise 6.5% between July 2023 and July 2024. Zillow expects Miami to jump 8.4%.

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Lance Lambert

2 years

If you refinanced at sub 3%, you won.

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Lance Lambert

6 months

Jury just awarded plaintiffs in the Sitzer/Burnett buyer broker commission class action lawsuit damages of $1.78 billion. Now real estate stocks are taking a dive 🏡📉

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@NewsLambert

Lance Lambert

9 months

91% of U.S. mortgage borrowers have a mortgage rate below 5.01%

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Lance Lambert

6 months

We’d return to pre-pandemic housing affordability IF one of these 3 things happened… U.S. incomes spike 62% U.S. home prices fall 38% Mortgage rates fell 4.4 percentage points calculates @Black_KnightInc

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Lance Lambert

8 months

Lennar, a homebuilder ranked No. 119 on the Fortune 500, is presently promoting a "fixed [mortgage] rate of 4.25%" in Colorado.

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@NewsLambert

Lance Lambert

7 months

IF mortgage rates were 3%, 50 million households could qualify for a $400k mortgage. At 7% mortgage rates, 27 million qualify. At 8% mortgage rates, 22 million qualify. This isn’t just a rate shock—it’s a credit eligibility shock.

@EricFinnigan

Eric Finnigan

7 months

Mortgage rates moving from 7 to 8% since July means around 5 million fewer households would qualify for a $400K mortgage. The potential borrower pool has now shrunk by -56% since in 2021 when rates were 3%.

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@NewsLambert

Lance Lambert

8 months

We just witnessed the fastest ever deterioration in U.S. housing affordability. That’ll happen when national home prices spike +40% in just over two years (2020-2022), followed by a historic mortgage rate shock (3% to 7%).

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@NewsLambert

Lance Lambert

7 months

🚨🚨🚨 The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate hits 8.00% for the first time since 2000. Taking into account mortgage rates, incomes, and house prices, October 2023 stands out as the least affordable month for U.S. housing this century. Spread: 308 bps

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@NewsLambert

Lance Lambert

4 months

IF U.S. incomes spiked 69%, we'd return to pre-pandemic housing affordability levels IF U.S. home prices fell 41%, we'd return to pre-pandemic affordability. IF U.S. mortgage rates fell 4 percentage points, we'd return to pre-pandemic affordability

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Lance Lambert

29 days

BIG JUMP The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumps to 7.29% Highest mortgage rate reading since November 28, 2023 Spread: 278 bps

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Lance Lambert

9 months

Taking into account mortgage rates, incomes, and house prices, August 2023 stands out as the least affordable month for U.S. housing this century.

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Lance Lambert

6 months

The Economist takes a hard stance on U.S. realtor fees. "Time to take a wrecking ball to realtors’ fees in America" writes @TheEconomist . "A court case is a first step to ending a racket"

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Time to take a wrecking ball to realtors’ fees in America

A court case is a first step to ending a racket

www.economist.com

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Lance Lambert

2 years

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbs to 7.14%. That's a new 20-year high.

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Lance Lambert

6 months

#NEW Zillow's forecast model predicts that U.S. home prices, as measured by ZHVI, will fall -0.1% over the next 12 months. Just 3 months ago, Zillow issued a bold +6.5% call. This is a SHARP downward revision.

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Lance Lambert

2 years

Monthly principal and interest payment on a $600,000 mortgage: @ 2.65% = $2,418 (i.e. rate entering 2021) @ 3.2% = $2,595 (i.e. rate entering 2022) @ 7.08% = $4,024 (i.e. today's average rate)

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Lance Lambert

29 days

loan officers looking at that inflation print like

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Lance Lambert

1 year

lake house > beach house, IMO

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Lance Lambert

1 year

May 2022 -----> November 2022

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Lance Lambert

1 year

Bill Pulte ( @pulte ), Pulte Capital CEO, shares these builder predictions w/ @MariaBartiromo "earnings are going to continue to deteriorate" "The M&A environment in housing and building products is something to keep an eye on over the next six, 12, 18 months. It's not time yet"

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Lance Lambert

7 months

Monday was my last day at @FortuneMagazine . After 10 years of working for media publishers, I'm ready to venture out and... Details coming tomorrow 🏡📰

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Lance Lambert

9 months

mortgage rates 👇

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Lance Lambert

10 months

Middle class homebuyers are taking on $7,000 mortgages thinking they can ‘always refinance when rates come down in the future’ Here's my Q&A with @AdvisorJohn 🏠

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Middle class homebuyers are taking on $7,000 mortgages with plans to later refinance down

The U.S. housing market firmed up this year. One reason being that buyers jumped in assuming they'll be able to refinance to a lower rate in the near future.

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Lance Lambert

7 months

It’s official. Taking into account mortgage rates, incomes, and house prices, September 2023 stands out as the least affordable month for U.S. housing this century. The previous holder: August 2023

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Lance Lambert

1 year

Housing chart of the day. 🏡📊 The blue bar = % of mortgages that could soon see their interest rate rise in 2023. The % is so low in the U.S. that I had to circle it. By and large, U.S. borrowers are blessed with fixed mortgage rates. via @GoldmanSachs

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Lance Lambert

8 months

There’s an insurance shock hitting housing markets in Florida and California. “Some homeowners who are skipping coverage say they can no longer afford rising premiums” via @WSJ

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Americans Are Bailing on Their Home Insurance

Homeowners are responding to a sharp rise in the cost of a policy.

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Lance Lambert

9 months

The U.S. housing market is broken.

@NewsLambert

Lance Lambert

9 months

IF U.S. incomes spiked 69%, we'd return to pre-pandemic housing affordability levels. IF U.S. home prices fell 41%, we'd return to pre-pandemic affordability. IF mortgage rates fell 4.3 percentage points (from 7.26% to 2.96%), we'd return to pre-pandemic affordability.

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Lance Lambert

2 years

We're amid the biggest mortgage rate shock since 1981.

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Lance Lambert

5 months

🚨🚨🚨 The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate falls to 6.82% following the Fed presser That's the lowest reading since May 18th Housing affordability has improved considerably since October's high of 8.03% Spread: 279 bps

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Lance Lambert

6 months

BIG. NAR CEO Bob Goldberg is OUT. This comes just days after a jury awarded plaintiffs in the Sitzer/Burnett buyer broker commission class action lawsuit damages of $1.78 billion. Nykia Wright, former CEO of the Chicago Sun-Times, will replace Goldberg.

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Lance Lambert

7 months

#NEW @MBAMortgage , @NAHBhome , and @nardotrealtor just wrote a letter to Fed Chair Jerome Powell. They’re asking for… 1. No more rate hikes 2. The Fed to “not sell off any of its MBS holdings until and unless the housing finance market has stabilized”

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Lance Lambert

23 days

Another mortgage rate jump 📈 The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumps to 7.50% That's a new high for 2024 Spread: 284 bps

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Lance Lambert

1 year

#NEW 8% of 2022 mortgage borrowers are underwater, finds Black Knight. In Colorado Springs, that figure is +30%.

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Lance Lambert

11 months

#NEW Zillow home price data for America's 30 largest metropolitan housing markets 1. MoM (month over month) 2. YTD (year to date) 3. Down from peak 4. YoY (year over year) 5. Change since March 2020 Seasonally adjusted, through May 2023

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Lance Lambert

4 months

PulteGroup is a homebuilder ranked No. 259 on the Fortune 500. An update on the growing tensions between members of the Pulte family and CEO (Ryan Marshall) 👇

@pulte

Pulte

4 months

BREAKING NEWS 🚨 Today, The Pulte Family won MAJOR COURT VICTORY, in part as a result of Brandon Jones & Ryan Marshall’s efforts to GAG ORDER ME! The Court determined, as result of this & more, that Jones is SUBJECT to Florida, & NOW THE CASE WILL PROCEED! THANK YOU GOD! ❤️

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Lance Lambert

1 year

Every market shaded blue below, remains at/just set a new all-time high for home prices. Source: Seasonally adjusted Zillow Home Value Index data through March 2023

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Lance Lambert

1 month

My favorite job: Dad The workload is about to increase 🐣

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Lance Lambert

19 days

3-bedroom house + 2 kids + 2.6% mortgage rate + Kid No. 3 due next month = Lance Lambert is bunk bed shopping today

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Lance Lambert

4 months

A close friend bought a rental property in Fort Lauderdale during the pandemic His insurance and property taxes, he says, just went up $500 per month That’ll cut the cash flow in half

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Lance Lambert

9 months

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Lance Lambert

9 months

Taking into account mortgage rates, incomes, and house prices, August 2023 stands out as the least affordable month for U.S. housing this century.

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Lance Lambert

3 months

The mortgage market is passing through a severe recession It's one of the worst downturns in mortgage market history Traditional refi is pretty much RIP right now Total mortgage apps are still negative on a year-over-year basis

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Lance Lambert

1 year

The Fed says that “the potential for large declines in property prices” is “greater than usual”

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Lance Lambert

1 year

🚨 The average 30-year fixed U.S. mortgage rate just jumped to 7.10%. That's the highest reading since early November.

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Lance Lambert

8 months

Austin home prices have further to fall During the '00s crash, it took Austin 30 months to fall 6.7% peak-to-trough This time around, Austin has fallen 11% in just 14 months How did Austin—which dodged the worst of the 08 crash—become the epicenter of the pandemic correction?

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Lance Lambert

10 months

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumps to 7.22%. That's a new high mark for 2023. Spread: 315 bps

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Lance Lambert

1 year

A Seattle real estate agent tells me: "For what it is worth. The first two weeks of the year have been busier with buyer activity than the last 3 months combined were."

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Lance Lambert

2 years

U.S. home prices went up 43% in just over 2 years. A 10% peak-to-trough decline prediction is hardly “doomsayer”

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Lance Lambert

24 days

Big one-day jump The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate ticks up to 7.44% New high for 2024 Spread: 280 bps

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Lance Lambert

7 months

PulteGroup is a homebuilder ranked No. 259 on the Fortune 500. There is growing tension, it appears, between members of the Pulte family and CEO (Ryan Marshall).

@pulte

Pulte

7 months

In my opinion, current CEO Ryan Marshall is the worst and most unethical CEO of the Top 5 Homebuilders, all while he gets paid $14 million a year from us the shareholders during his self-serving and unscrupulous behavior. $PHM

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Lance Lambert

1 year

The seasonally adjusted Mortgage Purchase Application Index falls 18.1% to 147.1. That's the lowest purchase apps reading of the 21st century. On a year-over-year basis, total purchase apps are down 41.5%.

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Lance Lambert

11 months

High-school sweethearts with good jobs, a baby on the way and a $600,000 budget can’t find a house after 2 years of hunting. ‘It is just so demoralizing, depressing, and defeating’ via @AlenaBotros

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High-school sweethearts with good jobs, a baby on the way and a $600,000 budget can’t find a house...

“The baby’s one week closer and I still don’t have a house for my kid,” Connor Hughes told Fortune.

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Lance Lambert

5 months

The stat below is FAKE news Not even close to true Institutional operators—those owning at least 1,000 homes—own 0.73% of the single-family housing stock (1 in 137 homes)

@jakeshieldsajj

Jake Shields

@jakeshieldsajj

5 months

This is extremely concerning and explains why the housing market didn't drop as interest rates doubled It's becoming nearly impossible for a middle-class family to buy a home and this will make the issue much worse

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Lance Lambert

3 months

Price: $159,999 1 bedroom 2 bath 661 sq ft Lennar's Elm Trails community in San Antonio, TX

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Lance Lambert

1 year

It’s mind-boggling how fast housing affordability deteriorated over the past 3 years.

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Lance Lambert

6 months

They just released Jerome Powell's x-ray. I'm not an x-ray tech, but it looks like he's got that dawg in him.

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Lance Lambert

2 years

🚨 The average 30-year U.S. fixed mortgage rate climbs to 7.37%. That's a new 22-year high.

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Lance Lambert

9 months

#NEW The Mortgage Bankers Association expects the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to average… 6.2% in Q4 2023 5.0% in Q4 2024 4.6% in Q4 2025

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Lance Lambert

8 months

Mortgage purchase applications just dipped to a new 28-year low. Why? Mortgage rates are hovering around 22-year highs—and housing affordability has deteriorated to levels unseen since the '80s. Red bar = The low point following the GFC housing bust.

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Lance Lambert

1 year

The story of the U.S. housing market will always vary by market. We need stronger data-driven regional housing coverage. 📊🏡 That's my goal as I transition into my new role (real estate editor) and work to build @FortuneMagazine 's first-ever housing/real estate desk. ❤️🏡

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Lance Lambert

2 years

🚨 The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumps to 5.95%.

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Lance Lambert

5 months

The average 30-year fixed U.S. mortgage rate falls to 6.62% That's the lowest reading since May 12th We're 141 bps below October's 23-year high (8.03%) Spread: 273 bps

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Lance Lambert

11 months

Las Vegas inventory jumped 24.9% in May. That's the No. 1 biggest jump among the country's 100 largest housing markets tracked by .

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Lance Lambert

2 years

The U.S. enters its first housing downturn of the post-Great Financial Crisis era. Goldman Sachs says the recovery won’t come until 2024.

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The U.S. housing market downturn will be worse in 2023, forecasts Goldman Sachs

The U.S. has entered its first housing downturn of the post–Great Financial Crisis era. The worst still awaits.

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Lance Lambert

9 months

🚨 The average 30-year fixed U.S. mortgage rate jumps to 7.48%. That’s the highest reading since 2000. Spread: 314 bps

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Lance Lambert

7 months

Zillow has walked back its bullish 2024 home price forecast.

@ResidentialClub

ResiClub

@ResidentialClub

7 months

LEFT: Zillow's 12-month forecast released 2 months ago RIGHT: Zillow's 12-month forecast just released Subscribers who upgrade to ResiClub Pro will get a regional home price forecast update today—including interactive maps for Zillow + Moody's Analytics

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Lance Lambert

5 months

Lawmakers introduce a bill that'd force institutional homebuyers to sell off their homes over a 10-year period Would kicking institutional investors out of the U.S. housing market actually improve housing affordability? My latest for @ResidentialClub

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Bill proposes kicking institutional investors out of the U.S. housing market. But would it actually...

Democratic lawmakers introduce a bill that'd force institutional homebuyers to sell off their homes over a 10-year period

www.resiclubanalytics.com

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Lance Lambert

2 years

🚨 The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumps to 6.28%.

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Lance Lambert

8 months

In August, Zillow predicted that 120 of the nation's 400 largest housing markets would see a house price increase of at least 7.0% over the coming 12 months. This week, Zillow cut that number to 39 markets.

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Lance Lambert

1 year

Real House Price Index: 2022 > 2006 House price to rent ratio: 2022 > 2006 House price to income ratio: 2022 > 2006 We got bubbly—again.

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2 years

Zillow: "Over the last twelve months, active demand — as measured by the number of people actively shopping for a home – has fallen by an estimated 30%"

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Lance Lambert

6 months

PulteGroup is a homebuilder ranked No. 259 on the Fortune 500. There is growing tension between members of the Pulte family and CEO (Ryan Marshall).

@pulte

Pulte

6 months

PulteGroup, which our family founded and which we remain a large shareholder, is currently worth $17.75 Billion. In 2016, I led the turnaround of PulteGroup. We grew the stock 30% per year. With 6,000 great employees. Now, we have a bad CEO/ex COO. Will be fixed, I think. $PHM

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Lance Lambert

2 years

🚨 The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbs to 7.12%. That's a new 20-year high.

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Lance Lambert

8 months

Taking into account mortgage rates, incomes, and house prices, September 2023 stands out as the least affordable month for U.S. housing this century.

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Lance Lambert

6 months

It looks like Zillow just had around round of layoffs. Based on what I'm seeing on LinkedIn. I'll message them to confirm.

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Lance Lambert

1 year

Big drop. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate slides to 6.16%.

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Lance Lambert

1 year

Principal and interest payment on a $500k mortgage (30-year): @ 3.11% it'd be $2,138 (Dec. '21) @ 7.37% it'd be $3,452 (peak in Oct. '22) @ 5.99% it'd be $2,995 (early Feb '22) @ 7.10% it'd be $3,360 (today)

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Lance Lambert

8 months

Boise real estate agent Shauna Pendleton has clients who bought at the peak and are now forced to sell as they get called back into the office. “They’ll probably have to take a $100,000 loss on their home” she says

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1 year

In the morning, I'm going to dump a TON of regional home price data (through February 2023) 🏡📊 For the 400 largest housing markets, I'll do: 1. MoM (month over month) 2. YTD (year to date) 3. Down from peak 4. YoY (year over year) 5. Chance since March 2020

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Lance Lambert

9 months

Peak-to-trough, U.S. home prices fell 27% between 2007 and 2012. If that level decline happened tomorrow, housing affordability would still be worse than prior to the pandemic.

@NewsLambert

Lance Lambert

9 months

IF U.S. incomes spiked 69%, we'd return to pre-pandemic housing affordability levels. IF U.S. home prices fell 41%, we'd return to pre-pandemic affordability. IF mortgage rates fell 4.3 percentage points (from 7.26% to 2.96%), we'd return to pre-pandemic affordability.

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Lance Lambert

8 months

IF this holds, and IF the current spread (300 bps) holds, we’re looking at a new 22-year high for mortgage rates tomorrow.

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Lance Lambert

2 years

The U.S. home price correction is sharper—and more widespread—than previously thought.

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Lance Lambert

10 months

2.65% That's the lowest ever weekly reading for an average 30-year fixed U.S. mortgage rate, as tracked by Freddie Mac. It occurred on January 7, 2021.

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Lance Lambert

4 years

From a 50-year low in the unemployment rate to mass joblessness in a matter of weeks

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Lance Lambert

2 years

The U.S. housing market, as told by one meme

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Lance Lambert

8 months

Austin's housing market is taking it on the chin. The seasonal head fake is over in Austin—it's time for more price give up That's not a Lance Lambert call. It's already in the data.

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Lance Lambert

1 year

Left: How @zillow expects home values to shift over the coming 12 months. Right: How @MoodysAnalytics expects home prices to shift over the coming 12 months.

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