Closing Bell Overtime airs 4-5p ET with
@jonfortt
&
@MorganLBrennan
, tackling late-breaking news and after-hours action with the biggest names on the Street!
.
@GarryTan
CEO of
@ycombinator
calling the SVB fallout an "extinction level event for startups"
"These depositors will not survive weeks or months without some sort of plan from the govt."
$SVIB
#SiliconValleyBank
#startups
"There is no doubt in my mind that Twitter will operate better with 25% of the employees than the company was operating at before," says
@altcap
on
@elonmusk
leadership at $TWTR. "We need these companies to be efficient."
"I am very disappointed in the Fed," says Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel. "They started tightening way too late. I think they're loosening way too late...I think it's finally going to get through to them...that most of their battle is behind us."
"I think it's still a 'show me' stock and you have another quarter or two before you can think about the worst is behind them," says
@barbara_doran1
on $QCOM's EPS beat and revenue miss, adding that smartphone shipments may not be showing signs of recovery any time soon.
"The potential for stocks to rally today is the best it's been in all of 2022," says
@fundstrat
. "Inflation is significantly weakening...that means the Fed may not have to be as aggressive as the Fed believes it has to be..."
"One of the most important inflections that has already taken place...is that inflation has peaked. I don't think the August CPI report has changed that," says
@fundstrat
.
"It's been dark days for $TSLA," says
@DivesTech
on
@elonmusk
. "This is a fork in the road the next 3-6 months because bloom is coming off the rose. Even for huge defenders like ourselves, it has just been what I view as a train wreck situation."
"The Fed that caused the inflation by expanding liquidity greater than any other time in history is basically [saying], 'We're not going to let you catch up to the inflation that I caused.' That's a slap in the face to the American worker," says Wharton's Jeremy Siegel.
"I don't even think the
#Fed
would have to cut [rates]," says
@fundstrat
on the potential for a 20% rally this year. "Once they pause...it raises the bar for them to start hiking again. I think that the
#bond
market would interpret that as the start of a cutting cycle."
"A lot of people are ignoring a tremendous drop in the number of hours worked per week," says Professor Jeremy Siegel on why June jobs report is weaker than it looks. "Even though the headline number looked decent ... what I saw underneath there showed a lot of weakness."
"The Fed has the market doing its work for it which means investors don't have to worry about hawkish surprises," says
@fundstrat
on why he feels better about the market. "Tech is cheaper than it was in 2003 after the dot-com ... there's a lot of upside surprise."
"The Fed is your friend. The nonsense has to stop."
Ritholtz CEO
@Downtown
and Tom Lee of
@fundstrat
unpack what the central bank's increased hawkishness means for stocks.
"The bull case has been really bloodied this year. It's been three quarters of disappointing market performance ... I think a lot of these headwinds that have been really tough on stocks, the odds are going to favor a big turn in Q4," says
@fundstrat
on his bull thesis.
.
@SpaceX
readies
#Starship
for its first orbital test flight
Starship is
@ElonMusk
's vehicle to carry people and cargo to Mars, it's also contracted with
@NASA
to land astronauts on the moon, and fully reusable
The launch could happen as soon as Monday
@MorganLBrennan
reports
"I truly believe that ultimately 70% of this [Tesla] sell-off is really Musk-Twitter train wreck driven, rather than core fundamentals," says
@DivesTech
"Next week is critically important," says Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel on the upcoming FOMC meeting. "We have to get no more than 25 basis points. 50 would be, I think, a disaster."
"Small caps could really be the leading group next year," predicts
@fundstrat
, adding that falling inflation could unlock a lot of "pent-up demand for consumers as mortgage rates fall, but also for capital spending," a type of economic momentum he says favors small cap stocks.
"People are pricing in a calamitous scenario and that's when stocks can start to rally."
Tom Lee of
@fundstrat
lays out his bull case for the second half of 2022.
"I'm very confident we're going to have a nice rally into year end, much higher from where we are now....I don't know when it starts...we're in a rocky period," says
@fundstrat
Tom Lee
@JonFortt
@CNBC
"We're seeing very high levels of investor cash," says
@MarkNewtonCMT
. "That makes me think that we are in very much a bull market that can continue...I think the lows were put in in October."
"This is going to go down as just a historically horrific move for
@elonmusk
that now he needs to course correct, otherwise this is just going to continue to fester," says
@DivesTech
"My projection is a 15% increase [for the S&P 500 in 2023]," says Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel. "More important than profits is lowering the interest rate...by the end of next year...I think we might see a 2-3% Fed funds rate."
With markets continuing to slide, investors want to know: are we nearing a bottom?
Billionaire investor Lee Cooperman tells
@scottwapner
why he sees no evidence of a bottom just yet.
$TSLA shares falling for the 7th straight day today. The stock is now on track for its worst month, quarter and year ever.
"Musk set off the 5-alarm fire...and now the demand [is] the second leg...that one-two punch is really a perfect storm for
#Tesla
stock," says
@DivesTech
"Bitcoin is acting far better than people expected," says
@fundstrat
on sticking with
#btc
. "It's a risk-on asset so to the extent the Nasdaq and Bitcoin rally, it's helping us be more comfortable that the market has already bottomed."
"We need to manage the supply crisis," says MBF Clearing Corporation's Mark Fisher. "The only way inflation comes down in the long run is if we go ahead and create more energy, better food, more housing and lower health insurance costs."
"I think it's going to be a massive bounce back," says
@DivesTech
on
#tech
this year. "We've talked about tech stocks overall [going] up 20% and big tech up above that...Overall tech I believe right now is as under owned as I've seen...going back to 2009 and maybe 2002."
"The three biggies next week: retail sales...FOMC...CPI. If we could get through those and we get that breadth thrust in the internals, we could rip into the end of the year," says
@Downtown
"I'll bet stocks over any of this fixed income," says Professor Siegel. "I think the yields will go down, but you're going to get a bigger bang for your buck in the stock market."
"Unlike every pretext for the past few months where commodity prices were soaring and inflation expectations were soaring," says
@fundstrat
, a lot of these are stabilizing or rolling over...this is putting Fed in a position...to [be] more measured. That's a huge deal for markets"
A bold call for 2023 from
@fundstrat
who says there's an outside chance the Fed might not raise rates at all next year.
"I actually think the run rate for inflation into the first half of next year can be even below 2%."
"AI, actually, is the most important technology that we've seen over the last 50 years, arguably the most important,"
@AMD
CEO Lisa Su told
@JonFortt
. "I do see a place where we are going to see tremendous growth over the next 3, 4, 5 years."
$AMD
Tesla shares falling nearly 10% today after reporting last night, investors concerned about margins as the company continues to cut prices
But that's not fazing
@ARKInvest
@CathieDWood
She expects Tesla to hit $2000 a share by 2027
@JonFortt
@MorganLBrennan
"We're going to be back to business as usual relative to the performance of miners versus MicroStrategy versus spot Bitcoin and the spot Bitcoin ETFs once things settle out over the next 30 or 45 days," says
@MarathonDH
CEO
@fgthiel
on market repositioning and activity today.
"We are late-stage economic cycle," says
@BrynTalkington
. "Every single recession over the history of the United States has been preceded by either an oil shock, Fed tightening, or an inverted yield curve. We've had all three this year."
"I've been talking about this being a bear market since February," says
@downtown
. "Here we are in the middle of May, the damage is way worse than anything we saw in 2018...until everyone can agree, 'hey this is the real thing,' I don't see how we bottom."
"[In] September and October, all hell could start to break loose," says
@Downtown
. "If you are a believer that quantitative easing has given us a great bull market and given us these V-shaped recoveries...then you can't believe that the opposite is also not true."
Yesterday marked the busiest air travel day ever according to the TSA
@JonFortt
asks Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg about how the airlines software systems are faring - after the many breakdowns we saw over the past several months
@secretarypete
@usdot
It's just a matter of time before the consumer rolls over, warns New York Life Investments' Lauren Goodwin. Here's what she's watching as we countdown to tomorrow's CPI report.
The Fed will be 90%-100% of the way done with its objective after its December 14th meeting – and that could prove bearish for stocks, warns Cantor Fitzgerald's Eric Johnston. He explains.
"Financials really haven't gotten a break since '09," says
@fundstrat
on his favorite large-cap sector. He points to several factors that lend to the sector doing well in 2024, including pent-up demand and falling rates which he says would be "very good for financial stocks."
"The bond market futures have agreed with the Fed, they've listened. The equity market is still not quite listening,"
@LizYoungStrat
. "The equity market is listening to the data about the consumer...at some point savings run dry and wage growth is falling...debt is piling up."
"In the early innings of a bull market you always see the market run without any fundamental reason why," says G Squared's Victoria Greene. "It does look like this rally does have some legs and you can't fight some of the tape right now."
"There is very little upside to this market," says Cantor Fitzgerald's Eric Johnston. "In terms of earnings estimates, the chance that they go up from here is extraordinarily unlikely...in terms of the multiple...what is the argument for a higher multiple than 17x...?"
Here's what could lie in store for tech with rates on the rise, according to Tom Lee of
@fundstrat
– and what he's labeling "the safest place to put money today."
Despite today's action
@Fundstrat
's Tom Lee remains bullish
"The reason we're constructive has a lot to do with leading indicators showing us that
#inflation
could be a lot softer..."
Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel on why he thinks 2023 might be "much better than we fear."
"I've never seen so much bearishness," says Professor Siegel. "When everyone's on one side I get wary. I think there might be some real surprises next year."
"Crypto is caught up in a really dark period," says
@fundstrat
. "Crypto is going to be tough to own, it's really only for the brave. But I think it is going to come back."
"We're finally ticking the boxes of earnings falling apart. We've been waiting for this to happen ... there's usually a sequence of events," says
@LizYoungStrat
. "First the market goes. Then earnings go. Then the economy goes.
After a turbulent week for tech stocks,
@Wedbush
@DivesTech
says the current market climate is a “generational buying opportunity in tech”.
"Relative to growth, we view now as the time for the names that we talk about in our tech playbook to own them."
.
@PalantirTech
shares rising more than 9% on news it will become a prime contractor for the US Army's Titan program to build an AI enabled vehicle.
"It's another manifestation of how AI is changing the face of warfare" - Palantir CTO Shyam Sankar
$PLTR
@MorganLBrennan
"The risk-reward in owning equities is very poor," says Johnston. "Once we get down to the 3600-3500 area...that's something that I'll be reassessing...I think we're going down to the low 3000s and I think it likely occurs in the first half of the year."
"I look at liquidity, the money supply. I've never seen a deceleration and a decline for March, almost record, in the post-War period," says Professor Siegel. "This is, to me, playing with fire in terms of what could happen to the economy."
"You want to be an investor and buy stocks in bear markets," says Requisite's Bryn Talkington. "I don't think sitting in cash, waiting for some bell to ring, is a strategy. You're going to miss it because stocks will turn higher well ahead of the negative news being over with."