Official account of Dan Ives. Wedbush MD. Tech analyst on Wall Street over two decades. Family, stocks, sports π±βοΈππ. πWe Are Penn State! Jersey Pizza
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Tomorrow Musk will officially cut the red ribbon on the Giga Berlin factory with Tesla now establishing a major manufacturing factory within Europe. We view the opening of Giga Berlin as one of the biggest strategic endeavors for Tesla over the last decade. Output expanding key
This was a massive delivery beat and will send the Tesla bears back into hibernation mode. The price cuts was a smart poker move for Tesla and paying major dividends in the field especially for the China market. This was a trophy case quarter for Musk & Co. πππ₯βοΈπΏ
Raising our price target on Tesla from $310 to $350 based on our increasingly bullish view of further EV share gains and margin stabilization in 2024. We believe Tesla will reach the $1 trillion market cap in 2024 as the next phase of growth story underway with Musk & Co. π₯π
Tesla just announced its 4Q delivery number which beat even the bull case whisper number on the Street. This was a βtrophy caseβ quarter for Musk & Co. with massive momentum moving into 2022. 309k deliveries vs. the Street's 266k and bull case whisper numbers in the 275k range.
We believe there is $5 trillion of EV auto market dollars up for grabs with Tesla likely to own $2.5 trillion of this pie. We estimate China is worth $400 per share to the Tesla story for 2022 and raising our price target from $1,100 to $1,400 with our bull case $1,800.
Based on our analysis of Giga Austin it appears paperwork is now clearing the way for Model Y production starting over the next 7-10 days. We believe the stamping machines for Model Y and testing is already in place and mostly completed, green light for Tesla to kick off Austin
For investors its crystal clear just how far ahead Tesla is ahead of the rest of the auto industry when it comes to producing/scaling EVs with last night another display of the pure breadth and scale of Tesla globally. This was a showcase event for Musk and the Tesla community
Delaware Court ruling a shocker ruled against Musk/Tesla BUT this now clears the path for the Board to create a new pay package and incentives that could supersede this and could solve lot of the Musk ongoing frustrations. Also could further lock Musk into Tesla. More to come
In a nutshell, we view Tesla where Apple was in the 2008/2009 period as Cupertino was just starting to monetize its services and golden ecosystem with the Street not seeing the broader golden vision at the time. Raising price target to $350 on sum-of-the-parts valuation. βοΈππ
This morning Tesla announced solid deliveries of 484.5k vehicles in 4Q which beat the Street's expectations of ~480k. This was a clear win for Musk and Tesla as hitting 1.8 million vehicles for 23 was a major achievement with nice momentum into 24. Big year ahead for TSLAπ₯ππ
Tesla does Model Y/3 price cuts up to 20% and stock down ~2% despite the skeptics yelling fire in a crowded theater. As we have said tons of bad news has been baked into TSLA. We remain bullish into 2023 and big fans of this strategic poker move by Musk & Co.
TSLA investors are exacerbated by this never ending Twitter albatross. Musk needs to look in the mirror and end this constant merry-go-round of Twitter overhang on the Tesla story with his focus back on the golden child Tesla which needs his time more and no more TSLA stock sales
Musk announces he will resign as CEO once successor found. Finally a good step in the right direction to end this painful nightmare situation for Tesla investors.
We reiterate our OUTPERFORM on Tesla while raising our price target from $215 to $300 as the sum-of-the-parts story for Tesla now further comes into play with its supercharger network, energy business, AI driven autonomous path, unmatched battery ecosystem, and increased scale
Tesla π» can celebrate today with the mini sell off post q, enjoy it. This is just setting the stage for next phase of Tesla growth story to manifest as more scale and battery efficiency take hold: monetizing supercharger, batteries, FSD into 24/25. Get out the popcorn πΏπΏπβοΈπ
We are raising our price target on Tesla from $1,000 to $1,100 as the green tidal wave hits its next gear into 2022. Tesla is seeing EV demand robust globally with the long awaited margin story now taking hold. Our long term bull case is now $1,500 vs. prior bull case of $1,300.
The narrative and fundamental story for Tesla is more bullish this morning after the call/quarter than 24 hours ago. The Austin production news and 4680 update are potential "game changers" to the Tesla story. In a nutshell, Tesla is extending their lead in the EV arms race
We are initiating coverage on Palantir with an OUTPERFORM rating and a $25 price target. In a nutshell, we believe Palantir has built an AI fortress that is unmatched and poised to be a major player in this AI Revolution over the next decade. PLTR poised to be a key AI player π
My view is that many on the Street and the auto industry do not appreciate just how important and revolutionary the Austin factory is for Tesla. It changes the game for Tesla from a supply perspective along with Berlin-further flexes production muscles when other autos struggling
The Musk vs Apple new battle is not what investors want to see. The Street wants less drama, not more as this Twitter situation remains the gift that keeps on giving for the Tesla bears with every day a new chapter.
TSLA announces 4Q 405k deliveries missing Streetβs 418k. Lot of moving parts but overall would call this better than worst case fears (above 400k) in a jittery macro. While bulls will not be super happy we believe this was a relatively good performance in tough backdrop.
And now sitting on top of the peak of the mountain with Tesla in a massive position of strength Musk has managed to do what the bears have unsuccessfully tried for years...crush Tesla's stock by his own doing in what we view as a purely painful dark situation. Cutting PT to $250
In a much needed call Musk stepped up as the adult in the room and laid the foundation for Tesla's growth strategy; most importantly a lower cost vehicle slated for 2025 production/delivery. We believe the next wave of the growth story and autonomous vision key. PT to $275 ππ
We believe the new tech bull market has now begun and tech stocks are set up for a strong 2024 with tech stocks we expect to be up 20%+ led by Big Tech as the AI spending tidal wave hits the shores of the tech sector. Focused on 2nd/3rd/4th derivatives of AI Revolution πππ₯
We were dead wrong expecting Musk and team to step up like adults in the room and give a strategic and financial overview of the ongoing price cuts, margin structure, and flucuating demand..INSTEAD we got a high level view with another train wreck conf call for Street. PT to $315
Tesla; I focused on unit growth looking robust for 2022, Austin up and running, 4680 battery news, and the auto GM story. Why in the midst of the biggest supply chain crisis in modern history would Tesla introduce new models/roadmap?! Others disagree. Thatβs what makes a market.
We detailed in a note our Top 10 Actions Musk Needs to Do at Tesla/Twitter in 2023 in our opinion to change negative sentiment around the Tesla story. We remain long term bullish and OUTPERFORM on Tesla although Musk MUST start to change direction here we believe
@elonmusk
Been a brutal sell-off in tech stocks that is hard to digest for tech bulls like us. Tech earnings bullish for enterprise/product driven names; outside supply chain issues shows demand intact. Fighting the Fed thesis we get, but this sell-off magnitude irrational in our opinion
We are adjusting our pre-split $1,000 price target ($333 post split) to $360 reflecting the 3:1 split as well as improved production from Tesla out of its key China Giga factory during the September quarter with clear momentum heading into year-end. Maintain Outperform rating.
We were able to survey over 500 consumers ready to buy an EV in 2023 over the past week. Our survey found that 76% of EV Chinese consumers are considering buying a Tesla in 2023 with the nearest domestic competitors BYD in second place followed by Nio in third place.
Lot of questions from followers about tech bubble worries with Fed bursting bubble perception. I was a tech analyst in 99/00; cannot even compare the two time periods. The growth for disruptive tech (software, 5G, cyber security, EV) today is unlike anything seen last 25 years
Per Musk comments the AI story at Tesla is still very much under appreciated by the Street in our view. The point Musk is making with his 25% ownership comments is around future AI projects at Tesla or outside Tesla. We believe the board/Musk will ultimately resolve this issue
Tesla has navigated the chip supply shortages better than any automaker globally. We see three main catalysts for Tesla in 2022 that if successful will be a major driver of the stock moving higher.
1. Berlin/Austin build out, 2. China mega growth, 3. 22 unit growth of 55%-60%.
Lot of investor qβs about TSLA-Why is the stock up on price cuts? The reason is because the Street views this as a much needed strategic poker move to go for the masses/aggressively go after consumer EV demand in a soft macro. Near-term margin pain for long term share gain/volume
Just hit-Tesla ~423k 1Q deliveries vs Street at 420k looks like clean beat. Price cuts implemented paid dividends and China we believe was a core source of strength. Production 441k good for capacity trajectory and production into 2Q. Model 3/Y deliveries were 412k and Model X/Sβ¦
Yesterday was a dark day for Tesla (and us) but this is not the end. Itβs about the next chapter-how Musk/Tesla move forward at this historical moment. We will be discussing our Top 10 List for Musk to Turn Around Tesla Narrative on
@CNBCClosingBell
at 3 pm with
@ScottWapnerCNBC
Hertz placed an order for 100,000 Tesla vehicles by the end of 2022 which is the biggest electric deal order ever placed and representing $4.2 billion. This Hertz deal is a "major feather in the cap" for Tesla and speaks to where demand is heading in the Green Tidal Wave.
Musk sold $4 billion of stock according Form 4βs filed. The Twitter deal remains an albatross in many ways but it looks like the Musk stock sale worries now should be done. Tesla stock down big since Twitter deal. Frustrating situation for all.
While we remain bullish on the long term thesis for Tesla and believe the stock is oversold, Musk continues to throw gasoline in the burning fire around the Tesla story by selling more stock and creating Tesla brand deterioration through his actions on Twitter-Board needs to act
Tesla will ask shareholders to vote at this yearβs annual meeting to authorize additional shares in order to enable a stock split. Looks like another stock split on the way.
The Delaware decision against
@elonmusk
and
@Tesla
is a jaw dropper in our view and we would expect the Board to fight back and take this opportunity to give Musk a new and game changing comp package to secure his future at Tesla with AI front and center
@CNBC
@LastCallCNBC
ππ₯
"It's a pivotal time for Tesla," says
@divestech
after a judge voided
@elonmusk
's $56 billion Tesla compensation package. "I think it could be an 'aha' moment for Musk and the board." $TSLA
The most important thing for the tech sector is what Nvidiaβs jaw dropping numbers tell us about the AI Revolution and what is coming to software, enterprise/consumer tech in 24. First derivative..now focus on second/third/fourth derivatives of AI. This a 1995 Moment! ππ₯ππΏ
I reiterate my thesis/note from yesterday: new tech bull market is here π. The AI spending wave is unlike anything we have seen since the start of the Internet and is a β1995 Momentβ. The bears will continue to focus on Fed jawboning and valuation-we focus on tech winners π₯π
My Dad called and asked about the stock market down while he in a panicβ¦.person at bagel place this am asked if Tesla still going be successful selling cars in bad economyβ¦.all signs fear in the air like 2001/2008/March 2020; as I said we stick to our long term tech playbook
Is this the end of the tech party or is it a major buying opportunity during a white knuckle sell off? Our answer emphatically is that secular tech winners driving the 4th Industrial Revolution are now in oversold territory; valuations very compelling given massive growth ahead
Robust print for Tesla. Confirms Giga Austin online with builds of Model Y have started; about hitting certification and start deliveries. All about supply ramp for Tesla. 2 million unit capacity we see by end of 2022 despite chip issues. Auto GM beat. Musk will hit on roadmap.
We believe unit deliveries are trending well ahead of Street expectations for Tesla in 1Q. China and Europe in particular are tracking at least 15%+ ahead of Street estimates and combined with US Model Y-driven strength Tesla could now be on a 2 million unit run-rate exiting 2022
The initial knee jerk Street reaction to Teslaβs big price cuts will be negative and the stock could be weak. However, seeing the forest through the trees Musk & Co. have more global scale today than ever before and itβs time to flex muscles and cut prices now in EV arms race
Elon Musk accused Twitter of βresisting and thwartingβ his right to information about fake accounts on the platform, calling it a βclear material breachβ of the terms of their merger agreement in a letter to the company on Monday. Our view; Musk looking to walk away from deal.
Semi event tonight for Tesla could open up another avenue of growth on EVs for the coming years. Pepsi taking deliveries a big step forward as more commercial customers look at this market. Scale and execution will be key for Tesla but many thought this day would never come.
I continue to strongly believe Tesla has more EV growth opportunity in front of it than behind it. Price cuts all part of this EV cycle in a softer macro with competition increasing in China. Just grew deliveries 40% in a brutal macro letβs remember. Key 23 guide ahead-4q call
As the saying goes.βThey Started It, We Will Finish It", this will now be the mantra for
@elonmusk
and Board around moving Tesla from being incorp in Delaware to Texas at its upcoming shareholder meeting after the head scratcher ruling. We see new comp package getting Musk to 25%
βThere is so much negative psychology in the stock right now, around EVs themselves, which we think is misplaced,β says
@CathieDWood
on $TSLA. βEVs, we think, will be the bulk of the market in the next 5 years. Beyond thatβ¦ robotaxis are going to change the landscape entirely.β
We believe if Musk refocuses back on Tesla, truly stops selling stock (walk the walk, not just talk the talk), the Board initiates a buyback, and 2023 guidance is set conservative on its 4Q call in January then this stock has bottomed in our opinion and works from here.
With German authorities finally giving approval for Tesla to officially begin production in Giga Berlin this removes a major overhang on the stock over the past few months. We believe by the end of 2022 Tesla will now have the capacity for overall ~2 million units annually
I have seen this level of panic for tech stocks in early 2001, Fall of 2008, and March/April 2020. No one knows a bottom but the panic, fear, deleveraging across the board causing massive dislocation in high quality tech. We stick to our tech playbook to navigate market storm
With the last week of December now here we believe Tesla is tracking slightly ahead of the 480k delivery unit bogey for 4Q based on strong data out of the key China region that gives us incremental confidence in our bullish call into 2024 π. Next growth frontier underway π₯πΏ
We believe Tesla selling off unwarranted on supply chain fears and risk off mentality. We focus on 2022 EV demand robust globally and Austin ramp. China key growth driver in 22.
We view Tesla where Apple was in the 2008/2009 period as Cupertino was just starting to monetize its services and golden ecosystem with the Street not seeing the broader golden vision at the time. Will discuss on
@LastCallCNBC
at 7 pm πππ₯
AI Revolutionβ¦Vision Proβ¦Cybertruck-just the beginning of the biggest tech cycle in 30+ years-buckle the seatbelts itβs going to be a fun ride. π₯πππΏππΆοΈ
Once Twitter deal closes on Friday (which is our expectation) and Musk sells his needed Tesla stock this 6 month painful overhang will be over and Tesla investors can finally focus on moving forward and seeing the next chapter of growth story take hold into 23 despite macro.
We believe the risk/reward is extremely compelling at these levels with the AI story/FSD making major strides at Tesla and represents a valuation that could exceed $1 trillion as this next chapter of the growth story plays out. 1Q units sluggish but 2.1 mm still hittable for 24.
Raising our price target on Palantir from $30 to $35. Our recent checks on Palantir in the field have been incrementally more bullish as we believe the AIP foundation is becoming viewed by many US enterprises as the "launching pad of AI use cases". Messi of AI thesis. π₯ππΏ
In our opinion the new tech bull market has begun and tech stocks are set up for a strong 2024 as we expect tech to be up 20%+ led by Big Tech as the AI spending tidal wave hits the shores of the tech world. Now the rest of the tech sector joins the Magnificent 7 in the rallyππ₯
Lots of bad news already baked into Teslaβs stock. That said, a miss is a miss and no rose colored glasses here as Musk needs to set realistic/hittable 2023 delivery/financial targets when they report earnings. 40% yearly delivery growth in this macro is still very respectable
Good to see Musk and Cook patch things up and resolve any issues. A step forward for both Musk and Cupertino looking ahead and no more issues it appears.
At the end of the day we believe the Board and Musk will be able to resolve this 25% issue over the next 3-6 months and ultimately all AI initiatives will be kept within Tesla. This dynamic will cause some noise but itβs a process we expect Musk/Board to manage for shareholders
Tesla stock in holding pattern all because of supply chain scare on last conf call and waiting for final certifications so Austin starts delivering cars. Demand looks robust as we have discussed with China key. Tesla clearly does not have a demand problem, itβs a supply problem
We believe the uncertainty around Musk at Tesla and overall AI initiatives has been a $40-$50 per share overhang on the stock that must be addressed by the Board. Will discuss on
@LastCallCNBC
π
The Board of Tesla needs to do the following 3 things in our view
1. Create a newβ¦
Will be discussing only on
@LastCallCNBC
with
@SullyCNBC
tonight at 7 pm our thoughts on Tesla, why we remain firmly bullish π despite negative sentiment on the Street, and what steps the Board should take next for
@elonmusk
to secure his future at Tesla
@CNBC
@CNBCtech
πΊπΏ
We believe
@elonmusk
is the biggest golden asset for
@tesla
in our view with the next phase of the Tesla growth story ahead into 2024 π₯ππππΊπΏ
@LastCallCNBC
Tesla cutting Model S and X prices another smart strategic move by Musk & Co. Lower price points have resonated well and spurred considerable demand with Model Y/3 and this continues down that path. Margins remain so above industry, Tesla in a position of strength on price cuts
Look forward to Cybertruck event Nov 30th for Tesla community. In our opinion this is the start of the next phase of the Tesla growth story into 2024 along with price stabilization. Street sentiment negative and yet again doubting the Tesla growth story. Remain firmly π into 24
We remain bullish as Tesla is one of our favorite long term disruptive names to own period. However, for Musk now is the time to execute on reasonable growth and unit targets into 4Q/2023 and it starts tomorrow. No more excuses-Street wants execution on goals.
Demand story and commentary from Musk strong on Teslaβs earnings call. Volumes look strong out of the gate in January post price cuts and China a key dynamic. In our opinion this was a bullish call and realistic delivery numbers set for 2023. Street should digest this well
Tesla just announced its 3Q delivery numbers of 241k which beat even the bull case whisper number on the Street.
These 3Q tesla delivery numbers are hard to poke holes in and will be a major feather in the cap for the bulls and broader EV space.
This is a disaster scenario for Twitter and its Board as now the company will battle Musk in an elongated court battle to recoup the deal and/or the breakup fee of $1 billion at a minimum. Twitter's stock on a standalone basis will now likely trade in the $25-$30 range on Monday
Tesla and Apple always have same vibe coming out of investor days from the Wall Street βwant more meat on the boneβ view. We strongly disagree and have for decades. These events are laying out the broader vision for transformational tech names over the next decade.
We view these next 2 weeks as a pivotal time for the tech sector. The fear factor seen is similar to what we saw in Oct/Nov 2018. That said, we expect strong fundamentals from Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, software and chips to reverse the risk-off surge of selling so far in 2022
We believe tech stocks will be up 25% in 2024 with a NASDAQ 20k level our bull case scenario as the Street is still significantly under estimating how quickly this AI monetization cycle is playing out among enterprises in the field. Dec quarter end checks strong for cloudβοΈ π₯π
In 22 years of covering tech stocks and large cap we have NEVER seen a guidance range of this magnitude on a large cap tech name and thus speaks to our thesis that the monetization of AI for stalwarts like Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Oracle, Meta, Apple, and Salesforce is wellβ¦
In the biggest moment for the market and tech sector in many years the Godfather of AI Jensen and Nvidia just delivered a robust quarter and guidance crushing Street and whisper expectations that further solidifies the AI Revolution is just starting and not peaked. π₯πππΏπ€
AI is the biggest tech trend we have seen since the start of the Internet in 1995," Wedbush's Dan Ives wrote in an email to the Business Insider. "I have been an analyst since late 90's covering tech, this is not a bubble it's the start of the AI Revolution." ππβ¦
The reality is the Street will and has always walked away from Tesla investor days βwanting moreβ. But in my opinion thatβs the Tesla/Musk DNA and seeing the forest through the trees yesterday presented all the ingredients in the recipe for a cheaper vehicle sub $30k likely by 25
In 2014 when Nadella took over as CEO every conference call for the next few years many bears would criticize the cloud vision. Stock was at $40. When Cook took over the haters said Apple would be the next Blackberry. Stock was $12. Musk in 2014 naysayers laughed. Stock was $25
In the first 3 weeks of 2022 tech stocks already reflecting 3-4 rate hikes, Fed tapering, massive valuation reset, and Street anticipating moderating growth for the year with tough comps. We believe the next 2 weeks FAANG, software, chips earnings reverse βrisk offβ sentiment
The Rivian supercharger news another sign itβs Game, Set, Match for Tesla owning charging domestically in the US with more monetization the key looking ahead. Sum of the parts valuation coming into play for Tesla. An AWS moment..batteries and AI next. βοΈ
In my opinion viewing Tesla just as an automotive vendor are similar to those investors in 2009 that would tell me Apple was the next Blackberry. This will be a key earnings for TSLA-but most importantly 2023 should be a year of innovation, scale, delivery ramp despite macro.
Shohei Ohtani is tied for 3rd in the American League in strikeouts as a pitcher and is 5th in the AL in home runs as a hitterβ¦this is history in the making. βΎοΈβΎοΈπ₯π₯ππ
@Angels
We view Tesla as the winner in this UAW strike/battle vs Detroit. In our view a win/win for Tesla: the biggest perceived threat to Tesla was GM/Ford in their EV push. Now a strike will disrupt EV timing and manufacturing into 24; a deal raises 313 costs-passed on to consumers
Thanks for all your feedback on the Tesla/Twitter/Musk situation. Been frustrating situation but its great to see and hear all the different opinions out there from all of you. Hope everyone has a great wknd and have fun with holidays around the corner!!πβοΈβοΈπππ
Dot-Com Bubble 2.0 or a Generational Buying Opportunity in Tech? Tech Playbook. In a nutshell, this is not a Dot-com Bubble 2.0 in our opinion, its a massive over correction in a higher rate environment that will cause a bifurcated tech tape with clear HAVES and HAVE NOTS of tech