Elizabeth Warren is probably one of the least informed people in terms of how markets work today- Her comments are truly scary in her own lack of knowledge while talking manipulation and greed- Cannot understand how she can get airtime, outside of trying to rile investors up
" I shorted $200mm of Internet stocks in March of 1999 & covered them three wks later at a $600 mm Loss.. They all ended up going bankrupt" Stanley Druckenmiller live on
@BloombergTV
Today is showing an extraordinary amount of divergence that's been quite rare in recent months, if not years- Nasdaq is up 1.1% and SPX higher by 0.63%, but these indices are diverging substantially from actual market performance- meaning 9 out of 11 sectors are lower on the day…
Over-hyping the Ukraine situation takes attention AWAY from the ongoing domestic issues- One could actually argue Administration WANTS a situation like this- War time decisiveness bolsters approval ratings when approval has been plummeting & most of Europe aligned w/ US =No worry
$IWM finally managed to achieve its long-awaited weekly close above prior peaks going back since Spring 2022-
We've seen both Absolute and relative breakouts vs SPX at this point- While gains shouldn't prove uninterrupted, we DO finally have a window for Small Cap…
Still no evidence of exhaustion in $QQQ nor $SPY While many have quickly tried to fade QQQ given "overbought" conditions & poor breadth, none of this matters until price signals it's done moving higher-
#FANG
does NOT have to immediately show mean reversion lower, & lackluster…
Seasonality in Election years since 1950 gives some important clues which happen to gel with what some of the 1st Q cycles, & sentiment & waning breadth after this Run-up help to conclude- I discuss all Tonight & the time of the year where seasonals match what Yield cycles are…
I'm excited to announce that I'm joining Fundstrat Global Advisors today as Managing Director/Global Head of Technical Strategy and looking forward to helping Tom Lee
@fundstrat
John Bai and team build upon their success at this stage of my 25+ yr
#WallStreet
career !
Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, and Happy holidays to all.. May your Holiday season be filled with warmth, happiness, peace and joy.
Here's wishing everyone a safe , happy, and prosperous 2024
The Bearish "No Breadth" narrative has morphed into a "Low Volume" narrative. Why don't people accept the price action & act accordingly? There are times for rallies & times for declines -
@IBD
- I discuss a probable area of QQQ resistance in todays…
$TSLA gapped down on the highest volume in over two months - While price has found temporary support near prior lows, bounces will likely be sellable near-term for addtl weakness in May to 146 or below to 125 - Great company, great cars, but early to buy dips technically for most…
What MANY technicians might not tell you is that TODAY"S post market close for $MU is set to break out of a 20-year Cup and Handle pattern going back since 2000.
Thus, while many might view Semis as extended, one has to WAIT until some evidence of…
$SPX break of last week's lows DOES NOT mean the index is heading straight down to test October lows- Tech, Industrials acting quite well and fear is picking up- $QQQ showed positive divergence- Cyclical lows very possible 3/15 +/- 2 days- I will discuss in todays' note
$AAPL break of its seven-mth uptrend brought about a rapid multi-day decline that's not yet complete
@IBDinvestors
Another 1-2 days however, w/ a move to 170-1 would set up a nice technical low to buy dips for those looking to do so- Volume picked up sharply on decline :( making…
$TSLA closed down on its lows after a sharp four-wk rally to reclaim its former base
@Marketsmith
While a bit stretched near-term, this is an excellent recovery of resistance that held on 1st retest back in Feb - Pullbacks will prove buyable for Tesla &…
Druckenmiller - "It is time that we let go of the false pretense that cutting entitlements is a choice. It is not. either we cut them today, or we will have to cut them much more tomorrow" ( Slide from his USC presentation below-May 2023)
It certainly DOESN"T feel like a market where $QQQ has risen for 3 days straight, $AAPL has been higher 7 of the last 10 trading days & 7 of the last 10 weeks & $SPX is positive on the week.. Hmm.
Stock indices don't need to bottom necessarily on capitulation; There could also be simply a drying up of Selling as markets near the 90-degree window of 7/27 peaks- Note that nearly half of sectors were Higher yesterday, w/ outsized strength out of both Small-caps & Banks-…
Sure, breadth has grown a bit worse in recent days, but Technology is also holding up far better than Fins, Disc, & Mats- $SPX has NOT violated its uptrend from March, so despite the naysayers who believe 50-day m.a. is sacred, Dec 22, March 23 breaks would say otherwise
Fear and Greed index shows sentiment this week having reached the lowest levels since last October, precisely at a time when several cycles bottom out. hmmm
Great weekend in Chicago seeing my son Matt's team go 2-0 & take down the chippy, young Ill. St squad. While his production could always be better,
@DePaulHockey
is having a good year & tops in their division ..
#GoDemons
Go
#7
I lightened up substantially on Equities across the board today, going from 100% long to 50% long and added Starter positions in Bearish ETF hedges and bought VIX calls in July, August and September- Take that for what its worth
While $TSLA remains trending down, some daily and weekly cycles i follow suggest that a more meaningful oversold bounce is near
@Marketsurge
Read tonights piece where i discuss the most meaningful
#Cycles
at work & go here if you're not a client and…
@RaheemKassam
Bizarre exchange- This is pretty much common knowledge, i'm surprised Gingrich got stifled like that, or this was declared to be "off-limits"
Markets certainly have not given any indication that this "Rally is Over" Prices have traded range-bound literally all week & if my recollection is correct, the last 6 Non-Farm Payroll reports have produced market declines afterwards.. No surprise, and No change
@ScottWapnerCNBC
While Large-Cap Tech's decline is making many think today's market is down, Equal-wgt $SPX ($RSP) is higher by +0.78%, and we're seeing DJ Transports rise to highest levels on a closing basis in over 3 mths-$XLK -0.36%, but $RSPT (Equal-wgtd
#Tech
) is up +0.66%. Food for…
While I'm on record as expecting a 2nd Half rebound.. it's a bit farcical to call NDX up 20% a new Bull with <3% of Issues at 52-week highs- During 2000-1 we saw no fewer than seven 20% + Rallies, each followed by new lows & markets bottomed in 2002/3.. Food for thought
An excellent day of further follow-through by US Equities and particularly by Small-caps which have played catchup quite a bit this week with multiple days of outperformance. Note.. while SPX might seem stretched to some, the EQUAL_WEIGHTED SPX ($RSP) is just exceeding its base…
Yet again.. Financial news editorial writers are doubling down on WHY stocks shouldn't be going higher.. hmm.. Most unattractive in over a decade.. Hmm.
#Sentiment
#WallStreetJournal
$INTC - Don't look now, but INTC has just broken out of a 10-month range on heavy volume- while MU lies on the cusp - Following its 65% drop, laggards within the Semi space are starting to come back while many are still doubtful
@IBD
@MarketSmith
…
Markets have officially entered the
#SantaClaus
Rally period, and Median gains since '08 are not unlike the data going back since 1950- While SPX, QQQ are wrestling w/ all-time intra-week highs from 2021-2, this data is compelling
I find it odd but not completely surprising that the recent narrative is that Tech should be avoided in favor of Cyclicals.
Below is a chart of the Equal-weighted Technology ETF relative to the Equal-weighted $SPX - I'll let you decide what should be done for sectors that…
One final thought-Since WHEN do equities bottom when Daily, Wkly RSI aren't even in OVERSOLD territory, & right when they enter.. that rarely is the optimal time to buy dips as most technicians are aware- OVERSOLD is a term that's thrown out much too frequently w/o understanding
$SPX with a marginal loss on the month- Yet bears have to come to grips with Technology's more than 200-bp outperformance- & decline seems to be losing its downward thrust right as shorter-term cycles get ready to bottom... hmm.
Despite the deteriorating momentum & Mkt breadth hitting new 2023 lows, US Equity indices $SPX have held up above intermediate-term uptrends, thanks to Technology.
Now bearish sentiment combines w/ bullish seasonality as we near the annvy of last year's bottom- I'll discuss…
Ratio of $QQQ to $SPY broke down in February, warning of some Large-cap Tech underperformance.
This has now begun to stabilize near prior month's lows & any hint of a weaker CPI that results in Rates turning back lower would be thought to be supportive of a re-emergence in Tech
TCAF 98⏯️🔥
@MarkNewtonCMT
joins
@Downtown
and
@michaelbatnick
to discuss market sentiment, buying the dip, the DeMARK Indicator, fundamental vs technical analysis, industrials, commodities, and more!
🎙️Apple:
🎙️Spotify:
A lackluster Friday finish to cap off a great week for Equities which showed some impressive broadening out amidst a huge decline in US Dollar and Yields- SECTOR ROTATION will be important to watch going forward. It won't be as easy in the weeks to come as this week was
Natural Gas won't go down forever, and this pullback yet again is "nearing" an area of attractive risk/reward- For now, early- I'll discuss in my notes when its TIME $NG_F $UNG
#TheBeast
$SPX has temporarily stalled near prior Oct lows, & while US Equities seem positive today, this is a mirage created by Big-Cap Tech & Financials (Powerful forces indeed) Equal-weighted $RSP is down today-Yet, reasons for optimism into late next week which i discussed last night
5 impt reasons why Stocks could sell-off in the SHORT RUN..discussed in mid-day email to clients-1) Short-term overbought conditions 2) Negative breadth on today's early rally 3) Demark indicators finally in alignment 4) Defensive Strength & Breakout in Utilities 5) TechStalling
Despite $AAPL better than expected earnings, upside for the stock is limited in my view technically & should not exceed 176, if not 172 in the short run- I'll revisit this when its time. It's been a nice ride for $AAPL I discuss risks for the stock in…
Bullard i think is the first by Fed to address possibility of inter-meeting hike and said he'd like to see 100 bp move by July 1- Treasuries have accelerated todays decline w/ S&P pulling back-Non event for S&P unless 4512 is taken out- but Volatility certainly Hawk-driven today
PT 1- Many who DON"T use Technical Analysis will view the Failure of markets to rally on a new House Speaker, or on "initial" evidence of a postponement of Israel Ground war or the fact that SPX broke its 200-day m.a. as being bearish
My JANUARY 2023 Technical Outlook made the case for why SPX should move to 4500, while LAST year i was BEARISH for a move from $SPX 4800 down to 3815 into June- I'll be putting out a note on Monday that addresses 2H thoughts- Happy
#July4th
Many saying Sentiment bearish but why are Calls being bought at a 2/1 ratio over Puts?. it "aint" all about AAII- VIX is nearly Half its Mid-March peaks
This is one of those days when many feel the narrative has changed, when Technically, it really hasn't- Beware of reaching to buy opening gaps, particularly when Rates start creeping back up-
#KnockKnock
Refreshing from a contrarian standpoint to get such aggressive pushback when sentiment is negative & stocks like $AAPL, $META, & $MSFT below are hitting multi-month highs. Rule Number 1: Valuation doesn't drive stocks in the near-term
Equal-weighted
#Technology
broke out two weeks ago to the highest levels since last Spring- This is NOT just a
#FANG
rally..- On an equal-wgtd basis, Financials, Energy, Industrials have all trounced Equal-wgtd SPX w/o big FANG percentages over 1 mth
WILL $TSLA show symmetry to its channel since last Summer? Open gaps on high volume are typically wave 3 moves, as some who attempted to buy this in Oct '23 found out- Price might seem stretched, but TIME is premature.
While $TSLA had improved technically upon breaking back up into its prior range last month, its run-up has made this NOT the best risk/reward to take a shot into earnings -
@IBD
@Marketsmith
Still could reach 305-315, but skeptical of a breakout above this larger resistance-…
Yes, DEFENSIVES are coming back with a vengeance this week- I discussed this as one of my 10 Warning signs that i look for-
#Healthcare
in particular, should have a great August.. finally. Have a good weekend All !
Today's reversal is important for
#Banks
and coincides with a S/T cycle that ive been tracking- This also coincides with DAILY AND Weekly DeMark exhaustion for $KRE - I am out at my daughters college graduation, but put out a short note to discuss short-term market analysis as a…
$VIX has hit 18-month lows, nearing lowest levels since Jan 2022 when SPX peaked out.. Front mth futures squashed ahead of expiration but still early to buy VOL.. & the VIX remains a head scratcher to those who don't understand how implied volatility works
$SPX and $INDU have taken out last wk's lows, Fear is elevated, Technology still holding on relatively well, while Defensive strength is largely absent- Yields & USD are close to peaking
Combination of Gann, Elliott, DeMark, Sentiment all tend to show some confluence & I…
Student debt is now $1.5 trillion, and 20% of student loans are already likely to be in default- The Brookings institution estimates that about 40% of student loans will be in default in 2023- William Priest-
#BarronsRoundtable
Hmm. so the $SPX Decline from 2/2 has hit a 50% PRICE retracement of the Dec rally & now a 50% TIME retracement.. Gann Sq of 9 from (2/2) 4179.75 = 3988, but when TIME is involved.. 21 cal days= 225 angle- (196.84) is square.. 4179.75-196.84= 3983.. here. hmm- or else 3969
$SPX Breadth divergence has been prominent for a few wks now and 1 of the warnings i discussed for "WHY" a ST decline was possible in August- Thus far, trends have not been broken - Have a Great weekend All !
What's not being talked about- Technology actually UNDERPERFORMED over last mth while Industrials, Discretionary, Mats, Comm Svcs performed better than Equal-weighted $SPX -
#TECH
still leading on 3, & 6 mth basis- Have a Happy 4th for those taking off early
Great time down here in Big-D with the
@MarketRebels
presenting at
#RebelCon
2022.. "If you mess with the Bull, you get the Horns!!." Great weekend All!.. I'll save this bull pic for early Oct !
Bear market decline of 283 cal days.. when projected forward 100%..from Oct 2022... hits in 5 days. Food for thought ..Most Fib ratios of this correction makred meaningful turns this year as ill show in tonight's piece ..
Does one Sell Stocks when they FIRST approach overbought levels? hmm. ah No. Why do we buy as indicators aren't even oversold and try to pick bottoms? based on RSI being oversold, when its NOT?
I shared my $TSLA cycle composite in last night's report- and discussed in yesterday's
#FlashInsights
why this was premature to bottom!
If you're not getting
#Fundstrat
Research & my Technicals- VISIT
#TESLA
This WILL result in eventual opportunity…
Many claiming market is "overbought" might want to take a quick look at the $DJIA or Value Line, but comebacks in stocks like $V, $DOW $AXP $CAT, $WMT, $HON across multiple sectors certainly isn't a BAD thing - Happy Early Independence day !
#July4th
Lots of discussion surrounding $AAPL and its dampening effect on Technology & possible Justice Dept Antitrust suit developing- I'll discuss my technical thoughts on this next week, but larger trend has not shown ample evidence of deterioration- Have a good weekend All
I'll update my thoughts on $TSLA in the near future in reports to clients, as we're closing in on targets i discussed with
@herbertong
from a price perspective and time is growing closer as well
I shared my $TSLA cycle composite in last night's report- and discussed in yesterday's
#FlashInsights
why this was premature to bottom!
If you're not getting
#Fundstrat
Research & my Technicals- VISIT
#TESLA
This WILL result in eventual opportunity…
Traditional Election-year seasonality for April going back since 1950. This year might have some interesting pivots near 4/20 for reasons non-THC related
Markets had a chance of bottoming SHORTTERM given 1) Positive momentum divergence 2) Overbalance of Selling this week 3) Healthcare & Tech (EqualWgtd) outperforming ( noticeable tailwind) 4) Cycles 5) Elliott wave structure 6) Rotation OUT of many safe havens..(Throwing in towel)
Yet another day where $QQQ largely camouflaged much of the weakness seen in nearly half the sectors- While this remains a strong initial price push off the lows, there will be time for consolidation- Meanwhile Crude has begun the process of weakening into late Nov- I discuss…
The Difference between Fundamental and Technical analysts is that fundamental analysts go to bed each night thinking the market is WRONG about where a stock or Index is priced. Technicians go to bed thinking the market is RIGHT
Lack of true bearish sentiment & volume dispersion is worrisome after a big break like today's though prices won't go in a straight line- I'll discuss what to look for to think lows are in place tonight re: $SPX $QQQ
$MSFT along with $AAPL slowly nearing March lows
#IBDPartner
- As i explain in yesterday's Technical note- Breaks of March lows by $MSFT, $AAPL would make life difficult for $SPX, $QQQ and these are 12% of SPX
@MarketSmith
@IBDinvestors
-Those are 270, 150 respectively- Happy Sat
I've discussed some of the broadening out of this rally in recent days. Equal-wgtd S&P & Value Line, R2k & R3k have broken out.. & more recently.. $MDY today-Tonight's report highlights one Sub-sector that's starting to show real strength- Visit
@KeithMcCullough
You'll want to CEASE and DESIST from trying to chirp my analysis, or you'll get blocked-here is the interview showing when i SOLD- 11/17/21 at the peak- i was bearish ALL last year and BULLISH this yr
Most seasonal studies have a sharp upward bias FOLLOWING the pullback into NYSE Buttonwood- the question is .. is 4/20 a midpoint to bottoms in March and mid-May before a runup into mid-August which has importance for other reasons. We'll discuss as it gets closer- This is the…
This am's Retail sales # resulted in $TNX spiking back above 4.80% which resulted in a minor pullback for Equities. However, as i discussed in
#FlashInsights
this wasn't a big deal at all & strong support for S&P cash near 4329-4346 - $SPX
More recently, 4401 provided…
$AAPL breakout likely postpones any immediate Market selloff for the Bears given AAPL,MSFT represent 12% of $SPX & have just broken out again
#IBDPartner
4th wave triangle consolidation points to 156-158 before stallout near channel resistance highs
@MarketSmith
@IBDinvestors
Last night's report discussed WHY Powell might err on the side of dovishness from a technical perspective & why the next big move on $TNX and $DXY could be LOWER, not HIGHER as the broader FinTwit space believes.
This directly coincides with what
@fundstrat
believes, & when…
Thanks to all our
#Fundstrat
and
@fs_insight
clients
I appreciate each and every one of you
By Following me here, you get :
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$AAPL nearing important support that should be watched carefully in the days ahead. ~180
I initially expect this should hold this wk which also likely provides support for $SPX at 4800- Given AAPL size within SPX, QQQ, everyone should be watching this…
I agree with Tom that near-term weakness should prove buyable & could lead to new highs; The subsequent breadth acceleration/momentum improvement will be very important in how to judge this rally going forward- Visit
@fs_insight
to gain Technical insights
#Election
Year Januarys aren't too fun for Bulls nor Bears alike, are they? 2024 thus far has played out similar to tendencies since 1950- I'll discuss in notes when a possible month-end $SPX rally should get underway
Happy Thanksgiving , and wishing you all a relaxing day full of happiness, peace and joy with friends, family and loved ones!
Hope your Turkey day is better than the Lions Defense !
#Superbad
!! ECONOMIC HURRICANE !! lol - I think we all need to take a deep breath and heed Mick Jagger's words on how resilient the consumer is during tough times - " I WAS BORRRN in a Crossfire Hurricane"
What happens when they TRY to take the SPX lower on multiple occasions and they fail.....Extra credit for the right answer in a non-snarky tone from confirmed Bears
For those trading, keep a close eye on yields backing up as this could directly and negatively impact Equities in the short run.. $TNX $SPX - JGB's have broken support .. Unscrewing cap on 10yr yields very well can allow for pop to upper side of the range
First time in awhile that ive seen so many Non-Technicians" quoting that Mkt breadth is "bad" in their view ;)-Quite the bifurcation today; however, last 3 months, breadth nose-dived simply on the uptrend starting to move sideways-an OVERBOUGHT Tech sector doesnt mean SELL...yet
For those that utilize
#Gann
Theory, $SPX 5110 has a lot of appeal as a 180 degree area of support from purely a PRICE basis (5254 high close from 3/28- Sq Root, subtract 1, Resquare = 5110) Time can get one closer- Many will claim "rising 50-day" etc, but this is WHY SPX…
Treasuries and Equities have rejoined to show very positive correlation over the last mth- Many might be inclined to view this as a real breakout, but i list 5 reasons in tonight's piece to think this Yield surge won't prove all that long-lasting for now- $TNX