Aziz Sunderji @AzizSunderji Twitter profile | Pikagi

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Aziz Sunderji

@AzizSunderji

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Analyzing American housing at 14 years of Strategy Research at Barclays Investment Bank (credit/macro/EM). Formerly reporting @WSJ

Brooklyn, NY

https://t.co/TZxX5MrXhE

Joined March 2009

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

7 months

If you work in the business of housing and you love data, I want to introduce you to Home Economics. It’s my newsletter where I analyze residential real estate through a macro lens using data visualization. I’d love your support:

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Home Economics | Aziz Sunderji | Substack

Forward-looking, data-powered analysis of American housing. Click to read Home Economics, by Aziz Sunderji, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

www.home-economics.us

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

10 months

The @BLS_gov Consumer Expenditure Report has tracked household budgets since 1984. How is the median household doing today vs then? In short: incomes are $16k higher, and food and clothing are cheaper. But the avg household is spending $5k more on #housing . (1/10)

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Aziz Sunderji

15 days

Oops...

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Aziz Sunderji

5 months

Feel like the main conclusion from the @NYFedResearch 's DSGE model is...forecasting is hard. The economy will...exist next year. Probably.

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

5 months

Does it make more sense to buy or rent your home? Many people say renting is more economical because of lower monthlies. That's 100% wrong: it doesn't account for capital gains from owning. Our model shows that, under most conditions, ownership is the better option. 🧵 ...

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

6 months

@Noahpinion @GaMichMan This is NEW home sales. Existing home sales are in the toilet.

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

10 months

In conclusion: The median American household now spends 37% of its budget on housing. It’s by far the largest—and the fastest growing—pressure point on household finances. (10/10)

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

10 months

@Liv_Boeree Kinda bad manners to screenshot a figure from an academic paper, tweet it, and not even provide a link to the study ()

The Rise of Partisanship and Super-Cooperators in the U.S. House of Representatives

It is widely reported that partisanship in the United States Congress is at an historic high. Given that individuals are persuaded to follow party lines while having the opportunity and incentives to...

journals.plos.org

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

10 days

Ugh...

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

5 months

While debunking the myth that high-earning households are renting more, I stumbled across the real story: the homeownership rate amongst the lowest-earning households is soaring. Coming soon at .

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

2 months

A disproportionate amount of the housing affordability discussion centers on homeowners. In reality, it's renters that are far more burdened—and the situation is worsening for them much faster.

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

10 months

We are spending more on housing even though we are not consuming more of it. Moura et al. show that square feet per capita has risen, but square feet per household has remained surprisingly steady over centuries. (9/10)

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

11 months

In theory, construction boosts supply and should lead to more affordable homes. But the data suggests otherwise: over the past 50 years, a flip from declining to rising construction presages rising—not falling—prices.

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

5 months

We wrote about this a few months ago, arguing that the spread should decline to 2%. Long ways to go, but it’s moving in the right direction.

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

3 months

@jayparsons Agree! 95% of top flight economists surveyed by U. Chicago disagreed that "local ordinances that limit rent increases for some rental housing units...have had a positive impact over the past three decades on the amount and quality of broadly affordable rental housing..."

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

5 months

2023 was a big year for Home Economics (our data driven housing newsletter). We rebranded, grew our subscriber base by 500%, and published dozens of articles. As the year winds down, we're taking a look back at 5 of our analyses that helped differentiate us from the consensus.

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

10 months

Despite stagnant wages, income are higher: 1: We are working more: unemployment is lower, participation is higher, and we are working longer hours. 2: Non-wage income: bonuses/benefits/pension contributions are up. 3: More favorable taxes and government transfers. (3/10)

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

10 months

The $16k gain may actually be an underestimate. If we use PCE instead of CPI to adjust 1984 dollars to 2021 dollars, the gain has been over $22k. And—households are 0.25 humans smaller—so the higher income is being shared across fewer people. (4/10)

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

2 months

Part of the reason we have such little housing inventory for sale is that aging boomers are staying in their homes for longer, even as Millennials are trying to buy. Across all ages, people are staying in their homes longer, but it's population aging that has the largest effect.

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

10 months

Over the last ten years the monthly payment on a 30-year #mortgage for the median American single family #home has increased by $1500. Two-thirds of this increase is due to higher home prices. Only one third has been from higher interest rates. (1/7)

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

10 months

But these pale in comparison to the drag from housing. In 2021, the avg household spent more than $20k on housing (+$5k vs 1984). The next largest item—transportation—is half the size (about $10k). Housing dwarfs healthcare (less than $5k) and education ($534). (8/10)

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

10 months

The rise in incomes has been the main tailwind for household finances. In 1984 the median household (middle quintile) earned just under $45k (2021 dollars). In 2021, the median household earned almost $61k. (2/10)

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

4 months

The conventional story about #housing is that affordability is awful and nobody is buying. This couldn't be further from the truth. The analysis we published this morning shows 10,000,000 new owning households since 2015. Many are young and middle class. 🧵 ...

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

5 months

Many stories re: rising NUMBER of "millionaire renters". Even if preference for renting was constant, # of millionaire renters would still rise due to population growth and rising nominal incomes. Millionaires are a tiny fraction of the US population, and few of them rent.

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

4 years

@Barclays This is a great story, and congratulations to Abisola. But anecdotes are not data; @Barclays , what percentage of your front office team at the senior level - Directors and Managing Directors - are Black women?

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

5 months

There are many online 'Buy v Rent' calculators (eg from @UpshotNYT ). We didn’t want to reinvent the wheel. But the wheel people have been using sucks. So we built a better one. It's more detailed (captures the upside of refinancing, for eg) and gives more realistic results.

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

10 months

This isn’t to say middle class households are not struggling / that there aren’t incendiary problems like income and wealth inequality. But the data shows some substantial gains that belie the conventional narrative of the middle class running on a financial hamster wheel (5/10)

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

1 year

A 🧵 about mortgage lock-in and how it could be resolved... American homeowners don’t want to move and lose their cheap mortgages. This “mortgage lock-in” effect has frozen the real estate market.

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

11 months

Nice note from @OddLots1 / @TheStalwart / @tracyalloway — re: how economy went from @kylascan 's Vibecession to "rolling expansion". I'd add: a reason tight policy isn't hitting economy: monetary policy hits a wall at housing, since mortgages are fixed.

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It Was a Week for Feeling Good About the US Economy

Hello and welcome to the weekly Odd Lots newsletter, where Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway bring you their thoughts on the most interesting developments in markets, finance and the economy.

www.bloomberg.com

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

5 months

I've come across many articles about high earners pivoting from owning their home to renting (supposedly because rents are cheap while home prices and mortgages are expensive, amongst other reasons). My analysis based on census data suggests this is not true.

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

10 months

On the other hand, many services, like healthcare and education, are more expensive. Why? Like all services, they are resistant to technological efficiencies. It’s no coincidence that we describe insufficiently empathic doctors as having a robotic bedside manner. (7/10)

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

11 days

Um, credit cards? 😱 (h/t @NewYorkFed )

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

19 days

For 80 years, the pace of homeownership in the US has grown steadily—through wars, economic crises, and social upheaval. Can it continue? ...[1/3]

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

8 months

Millennials are competing with Boomers for housing—I wrote about this for @FTAlphaville today: Key points (🧵)...

Millennials and boomers are competing for homes. Guess who’s winning?

Rising prices, high rates and demographics are reversing millennial gains

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

11 months

Is the data not showing the rebound you want it to? No problem—just draw an arrow pointing in the direction you want the data to go! 😂 This gem courtesy of @apolloglobal

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

8 months

The @nardotrealtor and others report that Boomers are "baby chasing"—moving to be closer to their kids and grandkids. But the data doesn't really bear this out. Millennial and Boomer hotspots don't overlap.

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

1 month

By the 2050s, the Census Bureau forecasts the population barely growing, and only due to immigration.

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

5 months

A recent @WSJ article suggested high earners are shifting to renting (they're "searching for luxury without commitment."). Is that true? My analysis of census data suggests, if anything, high earners are moving even further towards owning.

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

11 months

Sadly, @AdamPosen is spot on, on all of this. If you prefer pictures, a 🧵…

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

2 months

@DKThomp But I read in the WSJ that this is bad? 😂

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

9 months

@travis_robert so true. citibike is the answer.

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

10 months

My (non-economist) wife has been editing my newsletter drafts for a few months. Looking over something I’m publishing tomorrow, she turned to me and asked, “is this adjusted for inflation?”. This cub has grown teeth!

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

10 months

We have also benefitted as prices for manufactured goods have not just risen more slowly than overall inflation, but have actually declined. This is partly a result of technology and globalized supply chains. (6/10)

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

10 days

@KathyParkPrice Infuriating behavior. Sadly, not uncommon these days in BK. Only solace: people like that drive around angry all day, everyday. Imagine how bad that must feel.

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

4 months

Nice @mattyglesias piece re housing and immigration:

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Immigrants need market-rate housing

Whether in Ireland or the USA, social housing alone can't meet the need for mobility

www.slowboring.com

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

25 days

You know what I would pay a lot for? Journalism about what's happening in the economy and markets, by people who have actually worked in finance. That's it. That's the entirety of the business idea. Like, a stable of @matt_levine s. Why doesn't it exist?

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

6 months

Unemployment is rising. How worried should we be? 🧵...

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

11 months

@texasrunnerDFW Is number one, “US Homeowners are in great financial shape”? 😂

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

1 year

Incredibly prescient article from Oct 2022 by @MarcRuby . "To the extent liquidity is locked in held-to-maturity portfolios, that could present a problem."

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

11 months

@historyinmemes Pretty sure @Montreal did it first though, right @bjesseshapiro ?

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

2 months

There is a new dimension to American political polarization: Homeownership...[1/3] ➖Owners twice as likely to identify as "strongly Republican" than renters ➖Renters identify far more frequently as "strongly Democrat" ➖Renters also identify more often as independents

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

6 months

Where do home prices go in 2024? Many forecasts call for growth near the historic avg (eg: @AEIecon : +4%). I'll take the under on that: prices are stretched vs anchors like rents and incomes. Likelier: we'll get years of sluggish gains, allowing rest of the economy to catch up.

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

13 days

The @UpshotNYT Buy or Rent calculator—updated today—has long been a terrific tool. But even with the update, it lacks some important features, like the probability of refinancing at a lower rate in the future (my site, Home Economics, hosts a model that accounts for refinancing)

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

11 months

Can't help but feel this is the bust following the boom of new business growth during the pandemic.

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

5 months

Does buying still beat renting if home prices grow more slowly than usual? Yes: buying is more economical than renting if home prices rise by 3.15% per year on average. This is very achievable: in almost 70% of the years since 1970, house prices have risen by at least this much.

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

2 months

We are awash in "content", even as aggregate human waking hours are unchanged. Pouring your energy into work, sharing it, and hoping people notice it (let alone pay you for it) is a ludicrously ambitious thing to do. Consider: 25% of songs on Spotify have had 0 listens. 0!

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

5 months

Home prices and rents are moving in different directions. Since the summer of 2022, home prices are up over 1%. Rents are down almost 4%. What's going on? 🧵...

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

2 months

I think the real estate world is poorly served by mortgage rate forecasters who lay out very specific targets but don’t share their reasoning. Markets are efficient. It’s less useful to know the forecast than understanding what’s driving rates.

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

5 months

Guys, I just read the newspaper and apparently people predicted a recession but it didn’t happen. I’ll investigate and come back to you.

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

1 month

Boomers are the biggest owners of large homes. Not entirely surprising, since they are a huge generation, but I guess one might have expected to see more downsizing by now... (from @WSJRealEstate )

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

2 months

Who knew remodelers are one of the largest segments of construction employment?...

@JosephPolitano

Joey Politano 🏳️‍🌈

@JosephPolitano

2 months

US residential construction employment reached another post-2008 high last month, with employment in housing remodelers hitting record highs and employment in single-family construction picking up in February

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

5 months

The @WSJ : “the number of renters earning over $200,000 a year is up fourfold since 2010”. I reverse engineered their analysis. Yes, the number of renter households earning over $200k rose by 762,000. But also: at that same income level, the number who own rose by 4.4 million.

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

11 months

Pretty odd moment we are in right now. Coincident indicators look peachy. Forward looking indicators look brutal. Are we headed for a Wile E Coyote situation?

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@BeowulfTreasury

Beowullf's Treasury

@BeowulfTreasury

11 months

U.S. Credit Growth Update: This is looking deflationary into 2024....doesn't look like inflation will be sticky.

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

10 months

@MosesSternstein @bencasselman @BLS_gov Yep—you have to take into account retiring housing stock too—and by this measure, square feet per housing unit has been stable (since the 1800s!).

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

5 months

Every few weeks my wife sees a cockroach in our Brooklyn apartment and loses her sh*t. I keep telling her it could be WAY WORSE. I finally have the data to back it up...🪳

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

5 months

Read our analysis and download our customizable model here: .

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Subscribe to Home Economics

Forward-looking, data-powered analysis of American housing. Click to read Home Economics, by Aziz Sunderji, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

www.home-economics.us

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

2 months

🚨 We published an article in @EconoFactOrg this morning—myself along with co-authors @LounganiPrakash from @JohnsHopkins and @karanbhasin95 from @ualbany —where we identify and discuss the multiple drivers of deteriorating housing affordability.

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

2 months

Amidst a worsening housing affordability crisis, especially for renters, the *decline* in state and local spending on housing assistance is perplexing...great work here @urbaninstitute

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

5 months

Permits to build don't lead actual starts. The two are coincident.

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

3 years

1. Something weird is happening in the labor market: both unemployment and job openings are high. In other words, workers can’t seem to find jobs, and companies can’t seem to find workers.

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

9 months

Denmark—the land of hygge and portable mortgages.

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

17 days

This is why the subtleties of data visualization matter. All this hard work, and the pattern, if any, is impossible to decipher. Bad. Choice. Of. Colors.

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

11 months

Neat housing/climate change research here, from @Redfin , @LilyKatz , @FairweatherPhD , @S_Olascoaga : "Redfin users who viewed homes with severe and/or extreme flood risk prior to a Redfin experiment proceeded to bid on homes with 54% less risk after gaining access to risk data."

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

5 months

Re: the @WSJ article about "Forever Renters": I have issues with their presentation of the data. But there is a story here—just a slow brewing one that doesn't fit into the fashionable idea that renting—suddenly, and for the long term—makes more sense than it has historically.

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

5 months

Rents are falling. House prices are rising. Weird! They've moved in the same direction 84% of the time since 1970. Many say it's heavy multifamily (MF) supply. But the avg pace of MF completions since Jan '20 has been lower—as a fraction of housing stock—than for single family.

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

2 years

How long before Fed hikes hit the economy? Normally, it would take years (those 'long and variable lags'). But the Fed is hiking at the fastest pace since 1981. Famous last words—but this time could be different. My article in today's @WSJ :

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

8 months

@jayparsons @NickTimiraos Nice post. I do sense a conflict within the narrative between the protagonist being the builder/landlord vs renter. This is unmitigated good news for the latter.

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

2 months

Big jump in completions…

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Aziz Sunderji

5 months

@scottdavisCRE You mean, WFH is a whopping 3% lower than it was at the start of the year? And still much higher than pre pandemic? 😂

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

4 months

Cool chart @jburnmurdoch

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

4 months

There have also been gains in homeownership further down the income ladder. But the lower you go the more it's a story about retired buyers. Here is the profile of homeowners in the bottom income quintile in 2015 and 2022: new owners are mostly over 65s.

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

2 months

From @jeannasmialek : "If the Fed does leave interest rates higher this year and in years to come, it will mean that the cheap mortgage rates like those that prevailed in the 2010s are not coming back." Agree. Policy drove mortgage rates from 3% ➡️ 8% and won't entirely reverse.

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

5 months

Good interview with JPAM's Bob Michele in @FT @rbrtrmstrng this am: "The next phase I think we go through is a period of sustained growth...because of demographics. The 1991 births are the largest population cohort for any single year; they will all earn, spend and save."

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

4 months

Nationally, the household homeownership rate has held steady near 65%. But this masks huge disparities. 65% is an average of interior-lying, low cost counties (where ownership is often in the 80s) and densely-populated coasts, where it's much lower.

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

10 months

@mattyglesias Isn’t this the Easterlin v Wolfers debate about money and happiness—would you rather be poor but richer than your neighbour, or rich but poorer than your neighbour? The prevalence of “the 1960s were amazing” thinking supports team Easterlin. We were poorer but more equal then.

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

11 months

Neat chart, @FirstAm , showing the millennial home ownership gap has mostly closed. I was alerted to this trend, and some other interesting inter-generational ones—in @jean_twenge 's excellent book, Generations. Question remains: why do millennials report being dissatisfied?

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

2 months

Ugh. Canada has an acute housing crisis and now the labor market is softening pretty quickly. Hard not to imagine that @JustinTrudeau ’s days are numbered.

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

5 months

Feeling pretty smug about the timing on this one 🤓 ...

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

7 months

I'm in the minority here—I think mortgage rates will be below 6% one year from now. I'll tell you why in the coming days over at .

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

9 months

The irony of technological progress is that the basics—health care and #housing —account for an increasing share of household budgets.

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

2 months

“Now that almost every market guru has walked back their recession call, wouldn’t it be just typical if the US economy now slides into recession?” - @albertedwards99

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

6 months

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

9 months

@SteveSaretsky For sure. Oh wait, no—not at all.

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

5 months

@coinhackerio I am indeed, @coinhackerio (assumptions: 2% closing costs on purchase, 6% closing costs on sale, 6% pre-tax market returns, 15% cap gains tax, 30% marginal income tax, and other hopefully reasonable assumptions). That—and lots more—in the article 🤓👍🏽

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

1 year

Workers’ wages are rising. Home Depot, Delta Airlines, and Walmart are some of the latest companies to announce substantial pay hikes. Yet, most economists have reservations about these gains. Are they justified? Read it: #inflation #economics #dataviz

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

10 months

@richlowrie @BLS_gov I was also surprised by the low amount spent on education. We know more people are going to college and the costs of higher ed have skyrocketed. Warrants further investigation!

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

10 months

The @BLS_gov Consumer Expenditure Survey launched in 1984. What do the finances of the median household look like today vs then? They're better off today—earning more and benefitting from cheaper clothes and food. But they're also spending way more on some stuff, esp #housing .

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

5 months

A great example of why paying attention to both the x and y axes is important. Is WFH really dead? 📈Y axis: WFH only 3% lower! 📈X axis: ...since Jan 2023! ...roll it back a few years and you can see 25% WFH is really high in historical context. In other words, not dead.

@scottdavisCRE

Scott Davis

5 months

WFH is dead.

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

4 months

One symptom of high income + wealth inequality: even as homeownership is increasing, a growing number of renting households are "housing burdened". Areas in deep blue here are counties where more than 43% of renting households spend more than a third of their income on housing.

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

2 months

Biden is again working on student debt relief. What will the effect on housing be? 39% of Millennials said student loans delayed saving enough for a downpayment (from @nardotrealtor ).

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@AzizSunderji

Aziz Sunderji

5 months

@JohnWake "due to", or "coincided with"? Correlation is not causation, etc. etc.

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