Marc Rubinstein @MarcRuby Twitter profile

Last Seen Profiles

@kumar09224827

@Chris7258594941

@RE_Peel

@SteveAt70102659

@kanatachan_dayo

@SenshiYeager

@crabby205

@merunmorino_sub

@VLUM_official

@John69218156994

@SoumenP59914406

@konkatuhayaku

@bangaritan

@bY3gUy5h1LaDiEs

@Moerasduitser

@misa_misaxxx

@143heeseung_

@RentonFireL864

@OzWoloshyn

@CowleyNala54286

@GloriaBrow73342

@Esther963613391

@ScottVikings

@FelicitaSo35577

@kaiav11

@WWEBayl02114537

@Elonmusk3327766

@dagnyslomack

@Steve16531

@Zachmayers39781

@STATECHAMP_JOE

@AgusSusant44550

@NewDealChief

@changgyu02

@kumidaisuki

@ForwardeverS

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

3 years

Still the best of the best.

81

451

3K

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

2 years

"Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works." John Mills, 1867

18

437

2K

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

1 year

I've removed the paywall on this one

The Demise of Silicon Valley Bank

The Rapid Collapse of the 16th Largest Bank in America

www.netinterest.co

61

317

1K

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

2 years

CEO of Apollo, Marc Rowan, is one of the shrewdest investors out there. In Sept/Oct, his firm was on the other side of 1/3 of the liquidity supply that stemmed from LDI-related forced selling. Here's what he had to say on his firm's earnings call today 👇

24

185

1K

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

3 years

Affirm $AFRM is simply an API between Peloton and Cross River Bank.

24

46

1K

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

3 years

Stripe processed more payments last year than the entire e-commerce industry did when the company was founded in 2010.

11

81

905

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

3 years

Reinventing the wheel

20

44

793

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

1 year

One of these countries stands out

101

126

741

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

3 years

Bank analysts should really take a look at Maker DAO if they get a chance. It's a new, decentralised bank which already has $4.5bn assets on its balance sheet and makes >$100m a year.

13

87

646

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

9 months

After 15 years as a public company, Sculptor Capital Mgmt (formerly Och-Ziff)—one of the only listed hedge funds—finally called time. The experiment failed. The stock came to the market at $320 and goes out at $11. Along the way, employees took out $4.3bn of comp.…

31

64

640

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

4 years

Bearish take on commercial real estate by the excellent @rorysutherland

17

133

617

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

2 years

Completely missed this but Sberbank announced its earnings yesterday for 4Q21. They beat consensus by 6%.

28

32

555

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

2 years

"Investors have now discovered that everything is correlated to the Fed. And they are also discovering that most, if not all, of last decade's investment acumen was really nothing other than market beta and in some cases, nothing other than levered market beta."

3

84

521

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

3 years

In 1969, Warren Buffett was top of the world. He’d grown a fund from $105k to $105m over 12 years, returning 31.6% pa without a single down year. And then he wound it all up. “The only way to slow down is to stop,” he explained. But he didn’t stop. So what happened? 👇

4

60

491

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

1 year

“When you’re not working, what do you do to de-stress?” Morgan Stanley analyst to $SIVB CEO on TUESDAY.

18

34

464

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

4 years

UK challenger bank annual reports are all in. A few highlights 👇

8

123

448

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

8 months

Ken Griffin has an unusual take on LTCM: “They had the most thoughtful structure to how they financed their business...to literally be down 90% and still be in control... And so when Long Term Capital failed, I actually interviewed a number of the senior people…to understand…

13

26

445

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

3 years

Afterpay and Square are both unusual for having avoided venture capital to fund their growth. Square $SQ has created 98% of its value in public and Afterpay $APT has created 99.5% of its value in public. More here

After Afterpay

Plus: Big Tech Doing Finance, European Banks, Blackstone

www.netinterest.co

10

46

420

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

2 years

The Power Law reveals some eye-popping data on Sequoia's VC performance: • 155 US investments across 3 funds (2003/07/10) • Half lost money • 20 did over 10x and earned $100m+ • Overall return of 11.5x net of fees (2000-14) • Net return of 6.1x exc top 3 inv'ts

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

2 years

Anyone interested in VC needs to read The Power Law by @scmallaby . From the early days of Arthur Rock to the impact of Tiger Global, it's a definitive account of the history, the people and the lessons that underpin venture capital. My review 👇

2

35

200

8

61

398

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

1 year

The FDIC estimates its loss on First Republic will be $13bn. That takes total losses to $35.5bn – a quarter of the Deposit Insurance Fund. It leaves the insurance fund at 0.92% of insured deposits (vs stat min of 1.35%). Big levy on the big banks to build that back up.

16

93

397

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

3 years

This is the best Visa breakdown I’ve ever come across (and I bought stock in the IPO). Great work, @patrick_oshag and @arampell

Alex Rampell - Visa: The Original Protocol Business

Alex Rampell is a general partner at Andreessen Horowitz, where he focuses on investing in financial services. Alex co-founded Affirm and TrialPay. We cover Visa's business model, unique history, and...

www.joincolossus.com

6

55

364

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

3 years

Warren Buffett in his May 1969 partnership letter: One observer commenting on security analysts over forty stated: “They know too many things that are no longer true.”

5

35

356

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

1 year

Can't help but read this as BTFD.

26

35

351

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

1 year

Who needs other people’s money?

16

25

358

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

1 year

Once one of the largest conglomerates in the world, Brookfield $BAM has spent the last 20 yrs transitioning into an investment management firm. Next week, the metamorphosis will be complete when it spins off its asset management business. The full story👇

The New Conglomerates

Plus: S&P Global, Financial Services Comp, Blackstone

www.netinterest.co

8

66

339

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

1 year

In this week’s Net Interest, I discuss the economics of starting a hedge fund.

So You Want to Launch a Hedge Fund?

Plus: Bank Earnings in the Aftermath of Crisis

www.netinterest.co

15

44

335

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

3 years

Breaking News: The NASDAQ falls in percent but the Dow falls in points.

6

16

318

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

3 years

@Zoah_HS My faith in nominative determinism has been bruised

15

5

311

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

5 years

To many players of fantasy football #FPL it feels like the game is getting harder. They’re right. It’s due to the *paradox of skill* as explored by @mjmauboussin . Over the past 10yrs the number of players in the game is up from 1.95m to 5.91m. 1/8

18

76

318

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

3 years

GLG, the world's largest expert network, filed for IPO yesterday. It has 1 million experts on its books and facilitates calls between them and its 2,700 clients. Its S-1 highlights the power of aggregation. 👇👇

12

31

315

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

3 years

As a former L/S manager, this from @morganhousel rings very true.

5

28

313

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

3 years

A Substack milestone: 20,000 subscribers, which is very exciting! If you're interested, here's how I did it 👇👇👇

21

9

280

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

2 years

"This market is actually showing FAs and is showing clients that the 60-40 portfolio is not relevant anymore. I expect and our team expects that 50% of a high net worth individual's portfolio over the next 5 to 10 years will be alternative [to publicly traded stocks and bonds]."

4

27

271

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

2 years

"…We've now seen it in LDI. And we will continue to see that because…our system is designed today such that things are only liquid on the way up there, not liquid on the way down."

9

20

250

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

1 year

JPMorgan making the point that they have sufficient capital today to absorb all US bank loan losses during the global financial crisis.

15

27

249

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

2 years

"When a Leica camera sells for USD 15m in June (one went for USD 2.5m in 2018), a bottle of Japanese whisky -Yamazaki- for USD 500k and a VHS cassette of Jaws for USD 33k, it’s hard to say we’ve hit the bottom."

14

24

226

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

2 years

"Uncertainty is not a time not to invest. Uncertainty is a time to make sure you are getting paid and going in with your eyes wide open as to a range of outcomes."

1

18

226

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

2 years

TPG is IPOing next week. In its 30 year history, the firm has bought 640 companies. A better analyst than me could look at all 640 to get a handle on their investment process. I take a look at five.

TPG: A Tale in Five Trades

Plus: CUSIP, Western Union, Banker Bonuses

www.netinterest.co

6

26

217

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

1 year

That 6%

This Week in Fintech

@twifintech

1 year

3

29

138

13

37

208

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

2 years

Anyone interested in VC needs to read The Power Law by @scmallaby . From the early days of Arthur Rock to the impact of Tiger Global, it's a definitive account of the history, the people and the lessons that underpin venture capital. My review 👇

The Power Law

Venture Capital and the Making of the New Future

www.netinterest.co

2

35

200

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

2 years

"Securitization is now how America banks. We estimate that less than 20% of debt capital to US businesses and consumers is provided directly by the banking system. The vast majority of capital is provided by all of you through intermediaries like us and our peers."

3

17

180

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

3 years

Fifty four years later, the combination of insurance + investment management + permanent capital is catching on. Much more here

Other People’s Money

Plus: S&P Global, Virtu, Square

www.netinterest.co

4

17

177

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

2 years

"Millennium Partners is basically Substack for portfolio managers" @ByrneHobart

10

9

173

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

3 years

Softbank's fintech portfolio looks a bit…soft

10

25

174

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

2 years

A reminder of what a financial system looks like. Three layers: an asset layer, a funding layer and a collateral layer.

5

25

171

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

5 years

Excellent talk by @rorysutherland the other evening about his new book. I wrote up some notes here. (cc/ @david_perell @mikedariano @farnamstreet )

Rory Sutherland – Degrees of Certainty

Rory Sutherland speaks in London to highlight the key take aways of his book Alchemy. He elaborates on four kinds of human behaviour.

degreesofcertainty.blog

4

33

172

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

4 years

I wrote a substack about equity research. It’s amazing that research analysts spend their days valuing businesses, yet struggle to value their own. They give their product away for free! Highlights in thread 👇

2

26

165

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

1 year

1/ In 1907, to staunch panic, banks took out a series of ads in newspapers. Some argued for calm:

5

26

164

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

1 year

If you’d bought Sberbank stock the day before the Ukraine invasion, you’d now be in the money (even if it is in a side pocket). US & European banks, not so much. Investing is hard!

24

23

157

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

2 years

"We've lived in 10 years of benign environment with increasing liquidity and low rates. And this mismatch of daily liquid products with non-daily liquid assets is across our financial system. We saw it in March of 2020...where it happened in open-ended mutual funds and ETFs…"

1

10

153

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

3 years

Digital bank accounts have 2x the churn and 15% of the balance of traditional bank accounts. Profitable?

16

19

155

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

4 years

More investors should have a slide like this in their decks: Reasons not to invest.

4

26

153

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

3 years

Robinhood filed its year end balance sheet. 5x increase in margin loans, to $3.3bn (from $639m).

2

36

145

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

1 year

End of December $SIVB had 37,466 deposit accounts with balances of over $250k. Average balance $4.2m. 🐥

9

36

147

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

3 years

Coinbase did warn us about the "high risk of confusion" in the S-1

7

13

140

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

3 years

Jamie Dimon on why are bank stocks sell so cheaply: "The banking system as a size relative to the global economy is getting smaller and smaller and smaller… So you've had 80% of mortgage go outside of banking; tremendous amount of private credit is going outside of banking…"

8

10

140

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

3 years

Looking for a primer on Wise (formerly Transferwise) ahead of their direct listing in London? You're in luck. Read how they threw out the Uber playbook and brought in the Amazon playbook and the questions it raises👇

Money Without Borders: A Peek Inside Wise

Plus: Stripe, UK Challenger Banks, HSBC

www.netinterest.co

3

9

139

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

2 years

Trafigura is the biggest company you know least about. $230bn in revenues, yet no stock price or credit rating. Now it’s in the market for capital.

Jim Bianco

@biancoresearch

2 years

If you want to learn more about Trafigura, @MarcRuby must read substack detailed what the firm is about.

1

6

50

6

19

133

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

3 years

Great swag

10

2

126

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

3 years

My former colleague Pete Davies is one of the best investors in the UK. I learned a lot from him over the years, but he doesn't normally share his wisdom widely. This week he made an exception as a guest on the Money Maze podcast @podcast_maze . Here are some of the takeaways 👇

4

17

128

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

4 years

"People who are hanging around, trying to buy great companies cheaply never get anything done. They spend a lot of time congratulating themselves about their wisdom but they don't actually get anything done." Morgan Stanley CEO taking a swipe at value investors on his call y'day

9

127

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

3 years

Banks have created more value outside their perimeter than within it. Bloomberg, ICE, Visa and many more - all seeded by banks.

Robin Wigglesworth

@RobinWigg

3 years

If Barclays had kept its 20% stake in BlackRock (which it got as part-payment for its sale of Barclays Global Investors in 2009) then that stake would alone be worth almost as much as all of Barclays is today.

14

47

556

4

12

127

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

3 years

Finally, an explanation of why bank stocks are so cheap.

7

11

121

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

9 months

Late to this but what a read!

9

3

120

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

4 years

Starting a newsletter on financial sector themes. You can subscribe here.

7

14

116

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

3 years

Maker is years away from mainstream adoption, but that gives bank investors plenty of time to get up to speed! More here:

Reinventing the Financial System

Plus: Greensill, Dave, Revenue Financing

www.netinterest.co

4

12

112

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

1 year

This is what decentralization looks like. 0.0068% of employees working in head office.

3

11

115

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

1 year

@M_C_Klein @rbrtrmstrng "I think it is precisely because I understand banks that I never invest in their shares." Terry Smith

Why I never invest in bank shares

Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse collapses prove my point

www.ft.com

5

23

114

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

3 years

Well, Vision Fund has bounced back despite "many regrets". Listed companies now make up 43% of the fund, and are valued at 3.85x cost, including Coupang (10.3x) and Doordash (11.9x).

8

6

110

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

2 years

They banned payment for order flow in Europe this week. So that's Europe, UK and Canada where it's banned, leaving US increasingly isolated. More on what it all means in this week's Net Interest 👇

Free Trades

A World Without Payment for Order Flow

www.netinterest.co

7

14

108

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

3 years

Banks are getting increasingly worried about the threat from Big Tech on an uneven playing field. This from chair of Santander in today’s @FT

7

28

110

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

3 years

Marqeta: 73% of net revenue from Square 94% of TPV settled through Sutton Bank

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

3 years

Affirm $AFRM is simply an API between Peloton and Cross River Bank.

24

46

1K

2

5

109

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

2 years

Hedge funds not having an easy time, according to GS. "The most popular hedge fund long positions have suffered their worst 12-month return relative to the S&P 500 on record"

6

35

105

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

8 months

A compensation scheme masquerading as a public company

4

7

107

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

3 years

Congratulations @HaydenCapital who spotted Afterpay early and publicly shared his detailed work.

2

6

106

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

1 year

Proud to be one of Substack's 17k paid writers. Onwards and upwards, @SubstackInc !

6

5

104

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

3 years

Amazing birthday present from my wonderful wife @JudeVandervelde – first edition Bagehot.

3

1

102

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

4 years

Fred Liu @HaydenCapital is on a roll. +164% YTD. Outstanding performance.

5

2

103

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

1 year

Reading through all the $SCHW comments, the securities book is a fright BUT the funding is in better shape. Only $68.9bn uninsured deposits (19%) and the bank has $68.6bn of capacity at the FHLB.

12

7

99

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

2 years

“The biggest losers were men with considerable wealth, plenty of free time, and a convenient nearby stock exchange, who were very active traders during the mania.”

Jason Zweig

@jasonzweigwsj

2 years

2

9

84

4

5

100

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

1 year

2007 vs 2023

6

19

98

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

3 years

Had fun writing this one. Read how I was scammed out of some Bitcoin and went on to establish my own decentralised bank!

My Adventures in CryptoLand

Plus: dLocal, Tencent, Lemonade

www.netinterest.co

8

5

96

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

3 years

Credit Suisse risk culture is like Trigger's Broom. You can change the head, you can change the staff, but it stays the same broom. This week's Net Interest ...

What Sort of a Business is Investment Banking?

Plus: Tinkoff, Revolut, Coinbase

www.netinterest.co

6

12

93

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

3 years

A few years ago Stephen Schwarzman, founder of Blackstone $BX, complained about his firm's valuation. He complained that Waddell & Reed's multiple was 80% higher than his. Last year, Waddell & Reed was acquired at a multiple of 7.5x. Blackstone now trades at 23x.

3

7

94

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

8 months

Latest Net Interest is on the rise of pods. If you enjoyed @patrick_oshag interview with Will England on @InvestLikeBest , @FundamentEdge post on "how to beat the pods" and @RobinWigg articles in @FTAlphaville , then this one's for you...

Peak Pod

The Industrialisation of Alpha

www.netinterest.co

2

7

92

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

9 months

@dhaber Citadel, Millennium, Marshall Wace – 25+ years old, $60bn+ assets, multi-strategy, leverage technology

4

2

92

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

2 years

The number of analyst shouts of "Great Quarter!" dipped on earnings calls in 2018/19 but it's back up again. Read more on this sorry phenomenon in this week's Net Interest!

3

10

86

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

2 years

2 trillion roubles pulled out of Russian banks since Thursday

5

21

88

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

6 years

As we approach the 10th anniversary of Fannie and Freddie being put into conservatorship, I remain baffled – as a European – how the US as the bastion of global capitalism can get away with private sector appropriation on such a grand scale. #Fanniegate

6

51

81

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

1 year

Swiss regulator on US regulator: "We're not like them." European regulator on Swiss regulator: "We're not like them." 15 years of cooperation and it's all breaking down.

Single Resolution Board

@EU_SRB

1 year

🇪🇺 . @EU_SRB , @EBA_News and @ecb Banking Supervision statement on the announcement on 19 March 2023 by Swiss authorities

1

10

12

9

11

87

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

8 months

Enjoyed writing this one. Inside the stock lending market by way of Dumb Money.

The Five Families

Inside the Brokerage Industry

www.netinterest.co

8

22

86

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

3 years

The head of Cash App, @Grassadonia , on the most important thing in Fintech:

2

8

88

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

4 years

@patrick_oshag Blackrock. Few others can keep the lights on with a 0.17% fee rate. They cover a $10bn cost base and still have a 38% margin left over.

The AWS of Finance

Plus: Russian Fintech, Fintech and Big Tech Credit, Abraham Wald and the FinCEN Files

www.netinterest.co

2

10

87

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

4 years

This matrix shows probability of final rank depending on where you are now, again based on last year’s data. So if you are in top 100K there’s a 23% chance you’ll break into top 50K and 2% chance you’ll break into top 10K.

24

14

86

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

1 year

A peek on to the Goldman trading floor

6

2

85

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

2 years

Franklin disclosed details of its OSAM acq'n alongside earnings today: • $300m purchase price + earnout • $6.9bn AUM (of which Canvas $2bn) • "Canvas has grown almost twice the industry just since we even announced it." Great deal @patrick_oshag and @jposhaughnessy !

3

2

86

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

3 years

For more comment on financial companies like Enron, subscribe to my newsletter …

1

5

84

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

1 year

Wait till the Japanese farmers find out

3

8

82

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

1 year

"If you are a regional bank and the president of Goldman Sachs comes in and says “hi I’d like to make an $11 million interest-rate bet with you,” you are getting adversely selected." h/t @matt_levine

First Republic Worked Hard to Woo Rich Clients. It Was the Bank’s Undoing

The bank attracted wealthy clients with loans that have become a costly hurdle to finding a rescuer.

www.bloomberg.com

6

10

83

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

3 years

CEO of UBS doesn't rise to the bait. Analyst: "If I look at your valuation against Morgan Stanley…you traded a 30% discount and at times even 40% discount… How do you explain…that material discount?" CEO of UBS: "Maybe you should actually answer that question for us."

2

4

82