In 2020, Biden received 284,796 votes more than Bush
Biden defeated Trump by 33,596 votes
From 2004 -> 2020
1. NE Clark White Flight ---> Latino
2. Vegas suburbs became more ethnically diverse
3. Rurals became redder
4. Elko & Carson became more Hispanic
If SB 4 goes into effect, Latino families across Texas will be harassed and hurt for looking like immigrants.
I’m relieved to see the DOJ heed our calls to act. This law is unconstitutional, racist, & dangerous.
Read our letter from earlier this month:
If Juneteenth was really about emancipation, why not...
September 22, 1862 when Lincoln issued the Emancipation Proclamation?
Or January 1, 1863 when the Proclamation took effect?
Or December 18th, 1865 with the ratification of the 13th Amendment?
Because it's not about…
If Biden loses this November,
Democrats will go into full Cautious Lefty mode for 2028. No Whitmer, No Harris, No Warnock.
You're looking at centrists like Josh Shapiro and Jared Polis.
The 2022 midterms have shown that not all Latinos are the same.
Floridian Latinos bolted hard to right.
Texas Hispanics remain competitive.
Nevada, New Mexico and Arizona Latinos broke for Democrats hard.
Arizona - "Would you support or oppose a ballot measure that enshrines abortion rights in the Arizona state constitution?"
Support: 54%
Oppose: 29%
Tyson Group / April 11, 2024 / n=600
The idea of Puerto Rico becoming a U.S. state should not be controversial.
It has more population than Alaska, and has been a territory for over 100 years.
Man it really sucks living in the state at the center of this controversy
I would love a normal state government but no we have a bunch of schizos running the state like it’s R+50 instead of R+5
Here is why I'm so bullish on Biden for 2024.
- Millennials have aged 30-44, and they vote at higher rates than 18-29.
- Almost all Gen Z (1996-2006) will be eligible to vote in 2024.
2020 was the first time that Boomers didn't commandeer the results of an election.
NEW:
@POTUS
Biden set to name Julie Chavez Rodriguez as campaign manager. But sources say some key staff, operational decisions remained undecided as of Sunday and anticipated Tuesday launch could slide if not yet made. (W/
@finnygo
)
@DataDrivenMD
I lost confidence in the CDC in the beginning of May last year when they abruptly dropped mask mandates just barely when the nation was getting it's first and second shots.
No state party has been more incompetent than New York Democrats this cycle.
1. Costs Democrats a House Majority
2. Hochul barely wins.
3. Hochul appoints arch conservative justice.
Self inflected wounds, no Republican hackery needed.
First they were trying to defend Hamas, and pretend that 10/7 didn't happen.
Now they're going around pretending that the Houthis did not terrorize US ships.
The far left is pro terrorism.
What Joe Lombardo (R-NV) has done:
1. Signed a Pro-Abortion Rights Bill
2. Signed a Pro-Transgender Bill
3. Banned Sundown Town Sirens
4. Made Juneteenth a State Holiday
5. Gave 12 Billion to NV Education
Why can't more Republicans be like Joe Lombardo?
Progressives: Dianne Feinstein should have retire because she was really old
Also progressives: Barbara Lee is the best candidate
Barbara Lee's age in question:
Univision does a better job at polling Hispanics than other American media outlets.
Biden leads with Latinos by 27%.
It shows a very different picture than the ABC and CBS poll crosstabs that we have been seeing recently.
Also horse race with Latinos if you’re into that sorta thing:
BIDEN: 58%
TRUMP: 31%
BIDEN: 57%
DESANTIS: 28%
1401 Latinos, the largest bipartisan poll of Hispanics so far this cycle. A good poll for Biden, better than the 2020 final results of 59% to 38% according to Pew…
Today:
1. GOP pulls all funding of NV Minority Outreach.
2. AZGOP Supreme Court Bans Nearly All Abortions.
Arizona and Nevada are looking like Leans D states.
All GOP minority outreach centers in Nevada are now closed
Former AAPI center- now a vape shop
Former North Las Vegas RNC center- now a boba shop
Former Hispanic Voices for Trump-now a Spanish-speaking church
Former Black Voices for Trump- a chiropractor
Glenn Youngkin: Campaigns as a moderate, governs like Mike Pence.
Joe Lombardo: Campaigns as conservative, governs like Phil Scott.
They are not the same.
For many Democrats, 2016 shook us to our very core.
Trump sexually harassed women, ran shady businesses and was openly bigoted against disabled people and Mexicans became president.
The powder keg of White Anger at Obama had blown.
2024 is poised to be a different election
This Nevadan wants to settle the debate on what it means to be free.
Greg Abbott and Ted Cruz are always barking about how Texas is the freest state in country.
So here are my findings from personal research.
BREAKING: Nevada Supreme Court allows abortion measure to be on the ballot this November. If passed, the measure would enshrine the right to abortion in the state constitution.
Read the ruling:
If Dems lose Montana and West Virginia, and hold Ohio and every other remotely competitive seat, they still need one other flip from somewhere.
unlikely:
Texas
Florida
after that, the next best opportunity is maybe Missouri, Indiana, or one of the Nebraska seats.
Biden: You guys don't want another 2 trillion tax cut for the wealthy? (as he addresses congressional Republicans)
Republicans: No
Biden: No? That's good to hear!
Biden is invoking old political echoes of Harry Truman!
I don't see Nevada becoming a red state because:
- Two urban areas make up 90% of the vote.
- Marijuana Lounges are legal
- Abortion is enshrined in the State Constitution.
- Brothels are legal.
- Lots of Labor Unions.
- Increasing Ethnic Diversity.
- Low Religiosity.
Why is it that R+30 states like North Dakota and Utah have Governors that act like R+5 States.
While R+5 states like Florida and Texas have governors that act like R+30 states?
Democrats misremember Obama as being more Liberal than he actually was.
Democrats currently think Joe Biden is governing too Centrist, and not doing enough.
The reverse is true. Biden is more Liberal than Obama was.
Today, a potential rematch looks tight. Biden is down one point, and inside the margin of error, in a match-up with Donald Trump, whom he beat by seven million votes three years ago.
If Sinema voted along with Kelly, CCM, and Rosen she wouldn't have a popularity issue.
She chose to be an illogical version of Manchin. Manchin triangulates for an R+50 state, and generally makes his ambitions known. She wants others to guess what she wants.
This Uganda law is horrific & wrong.
Any law criminalizing homosexuality or imposing the death penalty for “aggravated homosexuality” is grotesque & an abomination.
ALL civilized nations should join together in condemning this human rights abuse.
#LGBTQ
This is why Democrats need to run more Hispanic Candidates, in significantly Hispanic states.
They just do better.
Roland Gutierrez should run for Texas US Senate in 2024!
Georgia is not the swing state that is quickly bolting left, that's Arizona.
Georgia will continue to be competitive for the time being.
Simply because the Georgia GOP has not gone insane like the Arizona GOP has.
We need more John Fettermans, Ed Markeys, and Ruben Gallegos in the U.S. Senate.
No more Liebermans, no more Sinemas and no more Slotkins.
People who won't turn their back on African Americans, LGBTQ, and Latinos.
RFK Jr. didn't even make it to the Nevada General Election Ballot because he refused to select a VP choice.
Why are we wasting time with hypotheticals?
Election Twitter has a tendency to misunderstand Western States.
Montana votes Republican, but it is very Libertarian. It's not very Evangelical.
Tester fits the bill of being an ancestral Democratic farmer who "gets it."
If Beshear could make it through a Democratic Primary, he would be a pretty tough candidate in the general.
Positive approvals in Kentucky as a Democrat are hard to do.
Texas is now a Hispanic plurality state like California. Texas probably has not been this Hispanic since the 1790s.
New Mexico is an outright Hispanic majority at 50.2%.
States that will likely become Hispanic plurality within the next 25 years:
NV, AZ, and CO.
War with Mexico would turn the American Southwest into a warzone.
I shudder to think what Republicans would do to infringe on the civil liberties of Mexican-Americans.
Today so far:
1. DC Grand Jury indicts Trump on 4 charges, may face jail time.
2. Janet Protasiewicz flips Wisconsin Supreme Court 4-3.
3. Gansert retires from NV SD-15, giving a path to a Democratic Veto Overrides in Nevada after 2024.
Bad day for Republicans.
The Spanish Left effectively turned a technical draw with the rising Spanish right, into a victory by flipping the Basque National Party.
I salute Pedro Sanchez, master chef.
🇪🇸
#Spain
:
Andoni Ortuzar, the leader of the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) have announced that he will not enter negociation with Alberto Núñez Feijóo (PP).
With this announcement, the leader of the People's Party have no path left to become Prime Minister.
#23J
I know Nevada isn't really a state we think of as rapidly changing, but this is what a winning coalition for Obama in 2012 vs a winning coalition for Biden in 2020 looked like
The funny thing is that a 6 Con -3 Lib Supreme Court wasn't enough to get Republicans to respect the Supreme Court.
Now they're openly holding a Conservative SCOTUS in contempt for issuing a ruling they disagree with.
Steve Sisolak has been the most consequential one-term Governor of Nevada
- Automatic Voter Registration
- Universal Vote By Mail
- Off-year elections shifted to even years.
- Sisolmander
Only in the Twitterverse can we see people saying the following:
“Florida (+2 R) is gone, but we’re gonna win Texas (+6 R) next time and Kansas (+14 R) by 2028!”
Nevada Democratic Legislative Supermajority incoming!
Lombardo will be a lame duck. The Gansert State Senate seat is a Cortez-Masto +17.5, and Biden +15.
After nearly two decades in Nevada politics, Republican Senate Minority Leader Heidi Seevers Gansert says she will not run for re-election for her competitive Northern Nevada seat in 2024, leaving it open for the first time since 2016. Via
@jacobsolisnv
:
Andy Beshear (D-KY) is the kind of candidate who would have been a shoo-in for the Democratic nomination from 1992-2004.
I don't think he can clear a modern Dem primary (see Steve Bullock in 2020).
Moderates in 2016:
There is no way Bernie could have won, he couldn't even win the Democratic Primary.
Moderates in 2022:
Conor Lamb would have been a shoe-in for the Pennsylvania U.S. Senate race had he won the primary.
Here are my Southwestern Latino takes that you should know:
Biden is crushing it with Suburban Latinos.
He is doing great with with Urban Latinos.
He is lukewarm with Rural Latinos.
Most Latinos in Swing States live in urban-suburban areas, few live in rural areas.
I just feel that not enough credit is given to Cortez Masto.
1. Her state party was non-cooperative (DSADems)
2. Her opponent had 0 scandals.
3. Red environment, high gas prices.
4. Low Minority turnout.
Then people call her a low performer, it's upsetting.
Biden gives Harry Truman vibes.
Former VP of a popular president who polls poorly, but likely on their way to win re-election.
With the caveat that Trump is a felon, and Dewey wasn't.