One Rental At a Time Works!! Start Today with your Buy Box and Daily Discipline and you to Can Learn Average, Avoid Bad Deals by only writing Great Deals!!
Let me say it again
The Fed Broke the housing market
82.4% of homeowners have a mortgage rate below 5% and 62% have a rate below 4%, per Redfin. Notably, 23.5% of homeowners have a mortgage rate below 3%
Where does supply come from in next couple of years
I just talk to a lender that quoted 5.25%!!!!
HOLLY $hit!!!!
Fha
Owner Occ
800 credit score
25% down
2 points
Are you freaking kidding me?? We are back to sub 6% for sum buyers
If you Make $200k and “Can’t” buy a home I suspect one of two things.
1) you have a spending problem
Or
2) you need to lower expectations for first home and get on the property ladder
Do you think it is possible to build a portfolio of cash flow positive rentals over 10-15 years that would eventually replace the income from your Job?
So I See BiggerPockets pushing the idea that it is ok to buy Alligator Properties (Negative Cash Flow)
What say you??
My thoughts should be clear by now but just in case
NO ALLIGATOR PROPERTIES
Which Real Estate Markets will Crash HARD?
1) IBuyer Dominated Markets
2) AirBnB Markets not in prime STR areas
3) Zoom Towns as Employees race home for fear of layoffs
Could Phoenix & Vegas be ALL 3?
Welcome to a Buyers Market, We have not seen one in 10 years or so. I know it feels odd but trust me it is AWESOME.
Do the Work, Don’t Rush, Only Great Deals. Fun times ahead
LOVE THE HOT CPI READING!!!
Why?
Now Mortgage Rates will Stay over 7%
Marginal Demand will pull back
Inventory will build
We can start healing a broken housing market
HIGHER FOR LONGER
SERIOUS QUESTION
Can You Believe this Administration wants to PUNISH folks that have Good Credit
How the heck do you punish the responsible and reward the less discipline??
Disgraceful!!
Mortgage rates to hike for homebuyers with good credit
DOOM PORN - No One can Buy a home
RedFin Hold my Beer
One-third of home purchases were made in cash in April — up from 30.7% a year ago and comparable with February’s level — which is the highest it’s been in nine years, according to real estate brokerage Redfin.
Been calling this for 6 months. Here are the dominoes I see
1) builders significantly cut production
2) GDP goes negative in early 2024
3) Fed cuts rates
4) buyer’s return as mortgage rates fall
5) WHOOPS NO INVENTORY NEW OR EXISTING
Active residential construction is rolling over (next comes the nosedive)... where real estate goes, so goes the economy.
This re cycle slow(er) w/COVID $ insanity and multifamily bubble of 21-22, res con employment will follow by 3-6 months, economy & RE sector are toast.
Doomer’s do you remember laughing at me for calling the 30 year mortgage below 7% by 12/31 when rates were over 8%???
Do I need to pull up your nasty tweets and comments??
Hello sub 7% Mortgage rates in 2023!!
Controversial Call
NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET OFFICIALLY HITS BOTTOM WITH January 20, 2023 Report on December Existing Homes sales at Sub 4M.
This will mark the Bottom in Transactions and Housing Crash I called is over and we Plateau for a long time. No quick return to 6.5M
Just wow!!!
6 in 10 Pendings had multiple offers
FOLKS WE ARE AT 7.5% mortgages
Doomers - No one Can Buy
Real World - Hold my Bear you ungrateful troll
Competition? Here's the percentage of pendings with multiple offers over the past ten days in eight local counties. Let's watch competition levels closely with higher rates. What are you seeing in the trenches right now?
Wow such a short sited view!!
My first SFH Rental was only $200 a month BUT FAST FORWARD 22 years and that 1 house =
$3,000 a month CF
$800,000 Equity
And I got all my money back plus $50,000
YOU MUST START SOMEWHERE, don’t compare yr 1 with my yr 22
"If Powell blinks, he would be rewarding bank managers and encouraging them to keep gambling. For all the Fed chairman’s faults, when he began raising rates, he didn’t sugarcoat his objectives."
@shawngorham
Bruce saved my ass in 2006 with his California Crash call!!!
His charts and research is amazing
But MOST IMPORTANTLY HE PUTS HIS MONEY AT RISK TO BACK UP HIS CALLS
MUCH RESPECT Bruce!!
I have made over $200,000 on YouTube.
Here are my 10 Lessons for Gen X and Baby Boomers.
1) You Do Not Need Fancy Edits, Jump cuts, etc
2) Talking About your Passion is Easy
3) Don’t Chase AdSense Money
4) Focus on creating Community not Clicks
5) Find 2-3 other people with…
Housing Market will be Broken for Years
Home Sales Jump 15%
Why
Simple Economics
6% Rate Brings Back lots of Demand from the Margins
6% Rate DOES NOTHING TO INCREASE SUPPLY
Spring Selling Season and increased Supply ends in whimper while demand stays ready
OUCH!!!
Only 3,000 more YouTube subs to 50,000 and a Vegas PARTY!!!
Yes I will spend some money to celebrate the journey to 50,000
Ask your friends to sub and let’s get there faster
The Housing Market is BROKEN!!!
But what happens next could be terrible. What happens at
7% Buying Stops, Supply slowly builds
6% Marginal buyers jump in
5% All hell breaks lose as Demand explodes with some new supply
4% supply and demand goes nuts
Thoughts??
@FedGuy12
Thank you for the Great Conversation
Highlights
1) Crash Up
2) Demographic concerns
3) Decade of inflation
FED GUY WARNS ABOUT VARIOUS SCENARIOS
Unpopular Opinion
Where you chose to live has a huge impact on how long it takes to earn financial freedom!!!
Cost of Living is an expense with huge variance across the world
Choosing a Spot where housing costs goes down 50% can be game changing
Wow!! Interesting take I suppose
But not buying it
Fed broke housing market when it kept rates to low for too long
The Fed bought mbs for heaven sakes pushing rates down
Help me out with something-
if we rain down $400 a month for each home buyer for two years as rates are too high won’t that increase demand and increase prices and keep inflation high???
What am I missing?
Thank you very much for the all the Support!!
The Daily Financial News and Weekly Millionaires are making a huge impact
Do the Work and let’s crush this Recession!!!
Foreclosures by quarter
Q4 2008: 417,880
Q4 2009: 463,660
Q4 2019: 71,320
Q4 2021: 8,860
Q4 2022: 34,180
Q4 2023: 40,120
Below you can download my presentation: The U.S. housing market, as told by 48 charts
2023 Was not a great year for me in hindsight
I had no big goals, I never got uncomfortable
We did cool things but I never felt that fire that drove me for 30+ years
I was Simply busy and comfortable
Nothing great comes from being comfortable
Home prices climbed for the sixth consecutive month to a new high in July as inventory shortages drove up competition.
Crash Bro’s are you willing to admit you are wrong or you didn’t understand the importance of Supply when you made you Crash call 100% based on Demand???
IF U.S. incomes spiked 69%, we'd return to pre-pandemic housing affordability levels
IF U.S. home prices fell 41%, we'd return to pre-pandemic affordability
IF mortgage rates fell 4.3 percentage points, we'd return to pre-pandemic affordability
To be clear, the "IFs" don't…
WOW I DISAGREE - He is in a great place if he changes his mindset
Stacking 2k a month is great. Nothing wrong with staying employed and buying one cash flow asset a year
Shoot do that for 10 years and you have a great portfolio
Most people should not be entrepreneurs and…
I did a consulting call today with a 33 year old guy who makes $150k a year at a fully remote job.
30-40 hrs a week. 2 kids + wife.
This is a really tough spot to be in.
Makes $2k a month more than he spends every month.
Zero chance at long term wealth but too easy and…
I lived way below my means for 15 years in the Silicon Valley where 200k incomes is considered normal
I can tell you people talked shit? Felt bad for us, etc
But after 15 years we were out of rat race and they still have to work and hope company stocks hold up
We chose right
In my area seeing a $200k+ G wagon or Bentley or Rolls or Ferrari pulling up to the private school is common. Not everyone here pays cash for their cars, I’ll bet very very few pay cash.
It seems like everyone in this area shits gold bars and gargles with 40 year old…
2023 Housing Market Surprise!!
1) The Housing Crash Already Happened. Did you miss it?
2) Transactions bottom at 3.9M +/-
3) Mortgage Rates Avg under 6% in 2023
4) Big Funds Spend 100B adding units
5) Crash Bros Create Another Reason for Crash
#2023
#realestate
#crash
🚨🏡
The average 30-year fixed U.S. mortgage rate falls to 7.36%.
That's down 67 bps from the 23-year high hit last month of 8.03%.
That's the lowest reading since Sept. 20th.
Today's spread: 283 bps
I lived this in 2000 and 2001 after loosing 80% in stocks. I wonder how many stock and crypto investors go I give up (like I did) and just buy cash flow rentals to build wealth instead?
🚨🚨🚨
Housing affordability is improving
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate just fell to 7.13%
That's down 90 bps from October's multi-decade high of 8.03%
Spread: 285 bps
NEVER FORGET
If you bought a Great Real Estate deal in last 12 months that you
OWE THE DOOMERS AND CRASH BROS A HUGE THANK YOU FOR SCARING AWAY YOUR COMPETITION
Zillow home price data for America's 50 largest metropolitan housing markets
1. MoM (month over month)
2. YoY (year over year)
3. Shift since 2022 peak
4. Down from peak
5. Change since March 2020
Data through February 2024
Stupid Financial Mistakes I have made
Bought 40k car when I made 30k
Thought I was better than Warren Buffett 7k into 200k down to 40k
Didn’t house hack a 4 plex at 20
Spent every penny I made as wages went up
Thought 401k was only option to retire
Reprice: The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate slips to 7.09%
That's the lowest reading since September 1st
It's down 94 bps since the multi-decade high hit last month (8.03%)
Spread: 287 bps
Why Crash Bros on Youtube won’t stop
The most popular crash bro did 4.5M views in last 30 days which conservatively = $70,000!!!
Why would he stop!! He is a freaking genius in my book
Making moves in a Recession
1) Stay out of margin debt
2) protect and grow cash pile
3) focus on your core area
4) look for sellers in trouble
5) but assets on sale with cash OR terms
6) make next deal better than last deal
7) don’t be afraid
8) Don’t rush/gamble
I TRIED TO WARN YOU FOR AT LEAST 18 Months this was coming
I saw these deals from idiotic syndicators with horrible debt structures and ridiculous assumptions!!
PAIN IS COMING
A Housing Bust Comes for Thousands of Small-Time Investors - WSJ
Another Classic Nick Chart!! Man he is a genius!!!
Don’t hate the Player Hate The Game!!
A MUCH MUCH BETTER CHART would be vacant homes over time!!
We have 14M today, what did we have in 2019, 2012, 2001, etc!!
How many are 2nd Homes? How many no utilities?
@MarioNawfal
Chart From Reventure Consulting
Almost 14 million vacant homes in the US.
We only need to move a tiny percentage of those 14 million homes to the “for sale” market to have balanced supply and demand, creating conditions for home prices to fall much further
Among U.S. mortgage borrowers...
26% have a rate under 3.00%
70.7% have a rate under 4.00%
91% have a rate under 5.00%
96.3% have a rate under 6.00%
via
@MorningstarInc
LOOK AT THAT NICK.
No wonder Nick doesn’t show a Time Series of data!!! It would blow up his argument
Again he is a Genius!! Don’t hate the Player Hate the Game!
People he makes at least 80k a month and he will never change!!
FEAR PAYS THE BILLS AND GETS THE CLICKS
As I keep saying, if you are lucky enough to be shopping for a luxury home please write disrespectful offers!!!
Quality Entry level homes, buckle up as no inventory and buyer demand building
Here are two sensational sales in the Sacramento region in February 2023.
- Listed $498K / Sold $650K (+152K)
- Listed $1.9M / sold $1.45M (-450K)
My advice? Be careful about forming a market narrative based on a small sample. A few trees might not represent the entire forest.
1) Real Estate Investing is NEVER EASY
2) Real Wealth comes from owning a decade plus
3) you are in the people business
4) Cash Flow Day One, no performa stuff
5) tell everyone your buy box
6) HouseHacking is tremendous way to start
Agreed liquidity is drying up and the commercial lending market hasn’t even felt real pain yet. Don’t worry it is coming as banks retreat like few have seen before
LIQUIDITY?
Is everyone on Twitter 12?
Every heard of the Great Financial Crisis, the last time the Discount Window spiked which was indicative of
LIQUIDITY DRYING UP.
Securitization is under siege. Lending standards are being clamped down.
(Where do people GET these ideas?)
@KobeissiLetter
Individual have lost faith in the economy and real estate
This is hugely problematic because Real Estate was the retirement plan for many
Now you get consumers retreating from the economy and just Save-save-save
A divided housing market: Zillow says these 294 markets to see home price gains while these 102 markets tick lower
@NewsLambert
with another Must Read
Thank you Lance!!
THIS HOUSING MARKET SUCKS FOR FIRST TIME HOME BUYERS BELOW THE MEDIAN
Example San Jose CA, listed SFH 799k, friend offered $915k AND WAS NOT HIGHEST OFFER!!!
This market sucks!!
Crash bros and Doomers
You lost one of your biggest threads to pull on, The Fed to Crash Housing
As I said many time, he did!! It was transactions and not price
Your Doom Porn has hurt so many
Student loan forgiveness sounds great for borrowers overburdened with high interest rate debts they cannot repay. The problem is that the subsidy appears to go principally to more affluent families at the cost of burdening those who didn’t attend college or whose parents saved to…
Doomer’s?
This was with 7% mortgage rates. Will you at least admit your 2023 Crash call was wrong? Or do you just delete and create more nonsense that helps you and hurts your followers??
S&P Case-Shiller: October home prices post biggest gain of 2023
@NewsLambert
Great Article, but you did miss a line - The Fed Broke the Housing Market in 2020/21 by keeping rates to low.
Housing market activity is crashing—and it threatens to push the U.S. into recession just like it did in 1981 and 2008
Best Housing Statistic I have heard in over a decade!!!
84% of People think it is a bad time to buy a home today!!! That is awesome news!!!
Now I can get greedy, write stupid low offers with great returns and find truly motivated sellers!!!
Crash Bros keep it up!!!
The Fed is losing the battle against inflation.
If they don’t raise rates higher, inflation is unlikely to come down.
If they raise rates, they risk pushing us into a painful recession.
Tough decisions ahead. I don’t envy their position.
HEY CRASH BROS
You ready to admit you missed the real estate crash (in Transactions)
I called the low as 3.8M (came in at 3.79M)
OH YEAH PRICES UP 3.4%
Fed Broke the Housing Market
Home sales fell to a 13-year low in October as prices rose
What if someone told you to buy Affordable Rental Properties in 2020 as Affordability was near record lows, lock in 30 year fixed rate debt under 4% and then let Inflation be your Friend and make you Rich???
Yikes in Canada!
Guy complains that higher interest rates added 22 years of mortgage payments.
Mortgage was 25 years long.
Now, he has 47 years of mortgage payments.
I have been sharing my hope that Powell has the backbone and staying power to kill the Fed Put for almost a year.
In order to do it he will become increasingly hated by more and more people and the crowd calling him to be fired or worse will get louder and louder
As market begins to price in another rate hike, I'm intrigued by a handful of belligerent followers who perceive me to be a Powell 'cheerleader' because I want him to succeed in killing PUT
Q: If the US economy can only subsist at ZIRP+QE, why not give up & convert to socialism?
Some High SchoolTeachers really SUCK!!
Why discourage a kid from learning about 15 Millionaires???
Don’t worry I offered up $100 for a full book report to encourage said behavior!!
Teacher BE BETTER
FACT Recessions are Scary
FACT Your First One as an Adult or Investor is particularly scary
FACT I hope you live through 5-7 of them
FACT They are normal part of business cycle
FACT You can buy great assets and get great terms from sellers
FACT Great time to build wealth