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The Kobeissi Letter

4 months

ANNOUNCEMENT: We are excited to present The Kobeissi Letter’s 2023 performance report. Our setups have returned +336.3% since 2020, significantly outperforming the S&P 500’s +47.6% return over the same period. The net return on our calls for 2023 was +15.5%, adding to a…

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The Kobeissi Letter Retweeted

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

5 hours

Shocking stat of the day: $2.1 TRILLION of excess savings have been wiped out of the US economy since August 2021. From March 2020 until August 2021, $2.1 trillion in excess savings were built up after $4 trillion of stimulus. Since then, US households have depleted these…

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The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

3 hours

The top 20% of incomes now account for a massive 40% of consumer spending in the US. Meanwhile, the bottom 20% of consumers now account for just 9% of consumer spending. Even if you combine the bottom 40% of incomes in the US, they account for just 22% of consumer spending…

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The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

1 day

How bad has US housing affordability become? US rents have risen 1.5 TIMES faster than household incomes over the last 4 years. From 2019 to 2023, nationwide rents skyrocketed by ~30% while average salaries rose by only 20%. US rental cost increases have exceeded wage growth…

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The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

1 day

The US IPO market just recorded its best quarter in two years. The value of IPO deals on US stock exchanges reached $9.6 billion in the first quarter, the most since $14.2 billion in Q1 2022. IPO activity has skyrocketed with the recent surge in risk appetite. However, in Q1…

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The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

1 day

The US is heading into a labor crisis: The US native-born civilian population has dropped from 170.8 million in July 2023 to 168.2 million in March 2024. That is a 2.6 million decrease in just 8 months. At the same time, the foreign-born population has risen by 2.7 million,…

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The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

1 day

More weakness for China? China's Debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to reach 200% by 2044, according to the IMF. In other words, for 1 unit of GDP the Chinese economy will have 2 units of debt burden. This means that Debt-to-GDP in China would be 50% HIGHER than estimated US…

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The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

2 days

Most of the focus is always on the S&P 500 companies. However, S&P 500 companies account for just 18% of total US employment. Put differently, more than 80% of total employment in the US economy is outside the S&P 500 companies. In fact, small businesses account for roughly…

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The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

2 days

Small businesses in the US are struggling: Small business optimism has dropped for a third straight month to an 11-year low. Sentiment is even worse than during the early 1990s’ recession and 2000 Dot-com bubble. Elevated interest rates and inflation have decreased consumer…

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The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

2 days

Global gold demand has never been stronger. Gold demand for the last 7 quarters has reached 40 million troy ounces on average. This is almost 2 million higher than the quarterly average from Q1 2010 to Q2 2022. Over the last 2 years, the gold demand surge has been almost…

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The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

3 days

This is incredible: Retail investors have bought over $5 billion of leveraged equity ETFs in the last 12 months, the most since 2022. This marks a $3 billion increase on a 1-month rolling sum basis in just a few months. Since the October 2023 low, retail investors have been…

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The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

3 days

Regional bank stock prices relative to large banks have plummeted to their lowest level since November 2009. Regional banks are now trading over 1 standard deviation below their historical average versus large lenders. Since January 2023, regional bank stocks have dropped by…

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The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

3 days

Further evidence that inflation is accelerating: US labor costs in the last quarter rose by the most since Q1 2023. The employment cost index is a broad measure of labor costs closely watched by the Fed. The index surged by 1.2% in Q1 2024 after a 0.9% increase in Q4 2023,…

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