Early estimates are for another 3" of snow across central MD in the 24 hours from Friday 1AM to Saturday 1AM. Track could change resulting in more or less snow, so stay tuned.
New Euro comes in with some healthier snow totals. From 10pm Fri to 10am Sat it looks like 2-4" with some isolated 5" amounts on the higher hilltops. A few hours of 1"+/hr snowfall rates before dawn Saturday morning.
30 years ago today I drove up TV Hill and walked into WBAL to begin the always-interesting job of trying to forecast weather in my hometown of Baltimore, Maryland. John Collins arrived a week later and together we...
6.8" at BWI-Marshall as of 1pm is the most snow in a single storm since the record-setting blizzard of January 2016. And it comes one day after the temperature reached 65Β°. Gotta love Maryland weather!
#mdwx
#snow
The latest extended-range Euro ensemble shows some snow for all of Maryland between now and the end of the year.
Normal Nov-Dec snowfall is:
Oakland: 27.8"
BWI: 2.6"
Salisbury: 0.9"
Today makes it 712 consecutive days without at least 1" of snow in Baltimore, but the end of the streak may be near. Euro model ensembles have a 70% chance of >= 1" snow next Tuesday/Wednesday.
First pitch temperatures took a toll on MLB attendance tonight (city/temp/attendance):
Cleveland/33Β°/9,843/
Minneapolis/35Β°/15,521
Chicago Sox/35Β°/10,377
Kansas City/42Β°/12,324
Philadelphia/43Β°/18,127
Baltimore/44Β°/7,915 (record low at Oriole Park)
Washington/45Β°/19,528
This evening's NAM is still east of the sweet spot for big snow in B'more, but getting close. On nights like this it's good to be a nightshift night owl; makes waiting for the new Euro easier. And I KNOW
@TonyPannWBAL
will be up late too.
Laurieβs flag has welcomed snow to our home since 1996. This snowman has flown in a few good blizzards and heβs still hanging in there (pun intended).
34 years ago, just a couple weeks after
@collinsvox
and I arrived
@wbaltv11
, Thanksgiving Day rolled in on November 23rd and we were challenged by a 3-6" snowfall interrupting travel for the holiday. It started on the evening of Nov. 22nd and ended early Thanksgiving Day.
It's the 11th anniversary of the start of
#Snowmageddon
; 40-50 inches of snow in one week here in central MD! At BWI-Marshall storm
#1
on Feb 5-6 dumped 25", just 4 days later storm
#2
on Feb 9-10 brought 19.5". Both rank in Baltimore's top 10 all-time. Amazing!
#mdwx
#snow
Did the GFS designers intentionally make a model that would scare the you-know-what out of us every other week? Starting to think so. For comparison, the record-setting blizzard of 2016 was a 987mb low...the GFS has a 958mb low same spot 9 days from now. So, 9 days to change.
I'm going much lower than the models for snow totals tomorrow. Looks like snow-to-liquid ratio will be much lower than the 10:1 that the models use. Heaviest snow south of Baltimore. Details coming up on
@wbaltv11
Not sure if it's right, but for 2 runs in a row the GEM has tracked a deepening H5 low right over us. Always fun stuff underneath H5 lows!
#snowstorm
#mdwx
Is it not obvious that someone has tampered with the official snow measurement at BWI? And so I appeal to my upstanding and honest colleagues in the
@wbaltv
weather office,
@AvaWBAL
@TonyPannWBAL
@ChelseaWeather
@DalenciaWBAL
, to concede the first-snow contest victory to me.
Today makes it 704 consecutive days without at least 1" of snow at BWI, but it's looking more likely that the streak will end this weekend. Euro ensembles show a 60% chance of >=1" snow at BWI Sat/Sun.
Orioles fans & Billy Joel concert-goers will be impacted by a cold front coming through Saturday. Timing could change, but right now best chance for rain is 8AM to 4PM. Temps in mid-60s falling into low 50s. Winds shifting to NW 10-15 mph/Gust 25-30 mph.
Arctic cold front crossing Maryland Christmas Eve should be interesting...thunder ahead of it, snow behind it, then cold!! Sub-504 thickness, -17c at H85. Fun stuff!
GEM has been the friend of MD snow fans for the last several days and the new morning run doesn't disappoint: 3-6" by 10pm tonight, and 2nd round of snow Monday p.m. to Tuesday p.m.: 6-12" by Tuesday afternoon. Jackpot of 30"+ in E. PA. Still 48 hrs 'till this one's done.
#snow
All the way from North Olmsted, OH, my sister sent this National Weatherperson Day cookie bouquet from Cookies By Design. Wow, time to head for the gym to burn some cookie calories!
Yes, I have to admit it, the streak is over. For the first time in 30 years
@TonyPannWBAL
beat me in golf (on my home course too, ugh!). Lost by 3 strokes, but had a ton of fun on a beautiful day at
@HuntValleyCC
with Tony,
@jctvweather
and
@JaredPlushnick
Euro still cranking up a Sunday storm. Surface low pops as the the approaching upper-air trof pivots the right entrance region of the jet over the Carolinas and shoots it northeast. Stay tuned, snow fans.
#mdwx
#snow
All-time May record low temperature of -9.5Β°C was measured at 850 millibars (4658' asl) by the balloon launched near Dulles (IAD) this morning. The old record was -7.9Β°C.
#record
#cold
#mdwx
#vawx
The rarely mentioned German ICON model (Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Weather and Climate Model) has done a nice job with Mid-Atlantic snow events this winter. It has some double-digit totals around Baltimore, and really slams metro NYC.
#SnowStorm2021
#mdwx
Based on all I've seen so far (awaiting a.m. Euro model), it's looking like a 2-4" snowfall for most of central and eastern MD from 10pm Thursday to 10am Friday. Usually have to tweak some details as the storm approaches. Stay with
@wbaltv11
and
@wbalradio
for updates.
New GFS and ICON trending slightly lower with tomorrows 2nd round of snow. Solid 3-5" by 10pm tonight, but still uncertain about how much more tomorrow p.m. Storm total of 4-9", or 5-10", or 6-12" all possible. What do you consider "heavy" snow?
#mdwx
#snow
Canadian GEM cranks up a coastal low & first flakes of the season in WV mountains
@snowshoemtn
next Sunday, Oct. 4th. Euro and GFS don't see it this way. Been impressed with the GEM lately; will be interesting to see if it beats the Euro & GFS with this one.
#wvwx
#mdwx
#snow
"If" the last two runs of the Euro are right, the first day of spring 2018 could be snowier than the entire winter in Baltimore.
#mdwx
#noreaster4
#springfever
The quiet winter weather pattern begins to change early next week; >30% chance of at least 1" of snow across central MD in the 24-hour period from 7pm Monday to 7pm Tuesday.
Today makes it 323 days without measurable snow in Baltimore, tomorrow we will tie for the 6th longest snow drought on record here. So where has the snow been falling this winter? Here's the seasonal map so far:
Picture from viewer Nicole Bienstock traveling south on I-95 just before the tunnel looking toward Baltimore at 5:26pm. Looks like a funnel in there but I couldn't find any rotation on radar, checked with Daniel Hofmann at
@NWS_BaltWash
and he couldn't either. What do you see?
Okay, just another 500-mile shift in the storm track, no problem. Yeah, this is going to be a fun one to forecast. Oh, and the winter storm threat shifts from Sat/Sun to Sun/Mon. All I can say is stay tuned, it's going to be interesting.
Standard Euro snow maps I post use 10:1 Snow-to-Liquid Ratios. I like Kuchera snow which uses an SLR developed by Evan Kuchera of the Air Force Weather Agency in 2004. Kuchera adjusts SLR using model forecast temps. Euro Kuchera snow for Fri: 2-4" in central MD & upper E. Shore.
GFS misses us, Canadian brushes us, Euro wallops us with more snow Friday night - Saturday. Models trying to figure out if, and/or, how much the northern and southern branches phase. Which one are you cheering for: big snow, little snow, no snow?
Still no measurable snow for Baltimore this fall/winter but things can change fast. Last year it was 65Β° on Jan. 2nd then 6.8" of snow on Jan. 3rd. Stay tuned.
That swirl of clouds over the Pacific approaching the OR/CA coast is our potential winter storm this weekend. When it moves inland early Wednesday and weather balloons launched across the U.S. can sample it, we'll get a better idea of how it will impact Maryland. Stay tuned.
I've become a big fan of the Canadian model this winter, but it's icy scenario for Monday is ugly. Let's hope the Euro's snowier forecast is right. Lots to figure out, stay tuned to
@wbaltv11
#snow
#ice
Snow on the way for Friday. By 7pm, 2-4" for most of the Baltimore Metro area, a bit more possible north & west. MD mountains will get more later Friday night and Saturday.
71Β° today but 9 years ago we were beginning an historically snowy week in the Baltimore area. The first of two powerful storms hit on Feb. 5-6, 2010 dropping 2 to 3 feet of snow. Just three days later a second storm brought another 1 to 2 feet of snow.
Euro still thinks we'll be doing this winter storm thing all over again on Sunday, with yet another storm possible next Wednesday. Buckle up.
#mdwx
#snow
2:22 PM snow at BWI
Snow fcst might miss by 1-2 in. +/-, but the fact that a storm identified a week ago 1000s of miles away in the N. Pacific is arriving here on time with the weather we expected is amazing. When I started studying this stuff 42 years ago this wasn't possible.
In another month or so this little system could prompt
@TonyPannWBAL
to yell "All aboard", but the boundary layer is still too warm and we'll have a few sprinkles instead. The mountains, however, may have a coating of white. Welcome to November!