Semil @semil Twitter profile | Pikagi

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Semil

@semil

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Investor via @HaystackVC focused on seed-stage investments // Venture Partner w/ @LightspeedVP

San Francisco, CA

https://t.co/JsWK2nniR3

Joined June 2008

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

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@semil

Semil

4 months

[quick post] The Breakout Tech Company Of 2023: @OpenAI Post: (This is a tradition on my blog for the past decade. Yes, it's a safe/boring choice & repeat of '22. I struggled w/ it this year, but end up here. I explain "why" in post.)

The Breakout Tech Company Of 2023

I know readers are not going to love this choice. I apologize in advance. Is the company I’m about to pick below even a startup? What about highlighting the “little guy,” a new startup that’s quietly...

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@semil

Semil

2 years

Kara Swisher on Elon Musk:

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@semil

Semil

4 years

Plant-based diet. No alcohol. Sleep metrics. Intermittent fasting. Meditation. Oat milk. Work on climate tech, crypto, no code, or productivity apps. Turmeric. Jam on a side hustle. Start a new fund. Broadcast virtues. Welcome to San Francisco in 2020.

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Semil

5 years

Your Uber will arrive in 6 mins. Your driver is making another stop, stretching his legs & recording a podcast. Your Uber is now 91 mins away. Your driver is arriving shortly. He will wait for 23 seconds. If you don’t show up, he will steal your crypto.

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@semil

Semil

5 years

Just passed by a store w/ dress on display that looks like Gmail.

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Semil

3 years

I wish @balajis hadn’t been so prescient. Hard to believe he tweeted this insight a year ago today.

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@semil

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3 years

"[Bitcoin is] the canary in the coal mine. It’s the most honest market we have in the country, and it’s telling us that this decrepit… regime is just about to blow up.” - Peter Thiel

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@semil

Semil

5 years

The amount of free information online today, even for startup knowledge, is incredible. Just to start a list: YouTube Khan Academy MIT Open Courseware First Round Review Hacker News Quora Harrison Metal General Mgmt All open online, all free. *not counting web access costs*

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5 years

Big VC firm: “I like this. Go raise a small seed & come back, we’ll lead the A.” Big seed firm: “We like it. Here’s what you should do: Go raise a small pre-seed & in a few months, we’ll lead your seed.”

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1 year

Striking passage from @friedberg from latest @theallinpod on how complacency seeped into the Bay Area tech giants & startup culture over last two decades. (I edited this for tightness, and added the emphasis in blue.)

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5 years

1960s: "Let's put a man on the moon!" 2020: "Eh, high-speed rail? Too hard. Next!"

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3 years

Airbnb is latest tech startup & company I've seen go from a $1B valuation to a $100B+ valuation. Shopify even more glaring. Zoom riding pandemic wave. At the time of the billion-$ valuation, it would be nearly-impossible to see this. What are those next co's on this trajectory?

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3 years

not a bad investment thesis...

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4 years

Incredible to re-read this again, today.

@balajis

Balaji

4 years

Going viral What if this coronavirus is the pandemic that public health people have been warning about for years? It would accelerate many pre-existing trends. - border closures - nationalism - social isolation - preppers - remote work - face masks - distrust in governments

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5 years

The Bay Area is the only place I know where this happens so often: A longtime friend or colleague who wants to support your next company/etc can slap you on the back & say "I don't care what happens to the $, I just want to be a part of whatever you do next."

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@semil

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3 years

I am a total @friedberg stan. I would pay for content from him. His ability to economically share a POV by synthesizing disparate facts is incredible. Every episode he drops 2-4 bombs that I keep thinking about over and over again.

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4 years

1/ Short, little pre-Superbowl tweetstorm announcement... Excited to share @haystackvc has raised Haystack V with $50M in fresh capital to focus on seed-stage* investing. * current definition of "seed-stage" to be debated at an another time ;-)

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3 years

This is the most succinct, punchy way to explain PG’s mantra that “Startups are about growth.”

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2 years

1/ I’m pleased to announce @haystackVC is about to open a new $50M fund, Fund VI, in Jan 22. Haystack has shown commitment to disciplined fund sizes, time diversification, tight syndicates & selecting people we can build relationships with. So far, this formula has worked well.

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5 years

Me, to two cofounders: “So, how do y’all know each other again?” Them: “We were hardened in the crucible of a very dysfunctional startup.”

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5 years

A 3-yr old startup (AssuranceIQ) in Seattle was just purchased by Prudential for $2B+... no sign of VCs involved, so I checked my LinkedIn. CEO Michael Rowell & I have only 2 mutual connections, both from Boston, not investors. I tip my hat to you & your team, sir!

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@semil

Semil

6 years

This is why Mike Maples is the real deal. Every founder & investor that has been lucky to spend time w/ Mike & learn from him know how deeply-rooted his wisdom is & how powerfully he expresses it. I transcribed this passage from a recent podcast interview:

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7 years

Founder: “Did you see the eclipse?” VC: “Too early. Keep us posted on the next one?” Founder: “Um, it’s in 2024.” VC: “My EA will schedule.”

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Semil

4 years

Most folks in tech: “I am canceling all travel and converting meetings to Zoom.” Anyone raising capital for their company or fund: “Yes of course I will meet you in the town square during a soccer riot.”

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@semil

Semil

5 years

Twitter is simply an incredible information network. If you create the right lists, follow the rights folks (for you) & actively block unworthy accounts, it's like a sea of good people just arrive to help you (or make fun of you).

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Semil

5 years

Twitter is an esport.

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Semil

4 years

Anti-cancellable is the new anti-fragile.

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4 years

I categorically reject the "Good companies will survive" trope. Disagree. There will be good companies that die simply b/c the industry they're in will temporarily lose its foundation. Industrial-level shock.

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Semil

4 years

Snowflake will shock Bay Area tech observers & public markets when it lists shares. The revenue growth is insane. It will also amp up other cloud/infra valuations, and then there are 2-3 big private co's behind Snowflake who will follow in the wake they create.

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4 years

Biggest VC stories 1H 2020: -Sequoia Black Swam Memo + active covid investing -Rise of Lachy Groom, Coatue -Benchmark wading in pre-seed -a16z caps 1st decade w/ Clubhouse -Lightspeed closes $4b+ funds -IVP & Accel fund Hopin -Alexis out @ Initialized -FirstMark quietly roaring

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@semil

Semil

4 years

The most contrarian thing you can do in tech right now is to cook a tomahawk steak on a charcoal grill & wash it down with wine, after 9pm, without having intermittently fasted or meditated that day.

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4 years

Satya Nadella moves in silence like lasagna.

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@semil

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5 years

Incredible modern-day map of The Bay Area by @NatGeo . Makes me even more certain that we should have 100x the number of cross-Bay ferries than we have today.

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@semil

Semil

7 years

Cartman on ICOs is my new #1 favorite:

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4 years

In my 7 years of investing, I don’t think I’ve seen a continuous wave of publicly announced layoffs at tech startups like the wave to start 2020. Investors know of more coming that have yet to be announced. This could be isolated to Softbank, but it feels broader in scope.

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5 years

My Uber driver: “Have you heard of Airtable? It may be the next Slack.”

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Semil

5 years

Thinking: If you have familiarity w/ tech startups & the ecosystem, have a journalist's mindset, understand high-level metrics, and are a pro user of Keynote, I think you could earn $2-3M in annual consulting income in the Bay Area right now.

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Semil

2 years

A founder pointed this out to me last weekend: Peter Thiel’s ability to find talent in people very early is both legendary (PayPal, Founders Fund etc) but also in a strange way underrated (Thiel Fellow alums created Figma, Ethereum etc). Over nearly 25 years, that’s incredible.

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@semil

Semil

6 years

1/ A bit of news... I am excited to announce that I'm teaming up with Lightspeed as a Venture Partner. I am grateful for the opportunity & for all the founders & investors who have given me a chance the last five years:

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Welcoming Semil Shah as Venture Partner at Lightspeed.

At Lightspeed, we seek to back founders who think on first principles, have a nuanced and unique perspective on their market, and don’t…

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Semil

4 years

Starting to hear about VC firms and specific larger startups in the Bay Area who’ve nearly/unofficially directed staff that offices will be closed until at least January, or at least April. Feels like these will become more official announcements next month.

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4 years

I've been randomly replying to my kids at-times bratty requests w/ whatever VC-isms that fit the mood. Today I tossed out a few "it's not a fit at this time" and they were all just perplexed, stunned, distracted by it. Worked great.

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3 years

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4 years

Short quote from current Snowflake CEO after replacing previous CEO:

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Semil

5 years

Don Valentine's first fund was $3M in 1974, invested in Atari & Apple. That fund gave birth to Sequoia Capital.

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6 years

this has to be the tech picture of the year…

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4 years

Someone recently asked me - “What’s the biggest difference in Bay Area startup culture today vs when you moved here a decade ago?” My answer: “People clap before the performance.”

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3 years

As a California resident in early 2021: -I have no idea when I’ll get a Covid vaccine -I have no idea if public schools will be open for full days in Sept -I have no idea when I can take my kids to an outdoor restaurant -I have no idea when this current lockdown eases up

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Semil

5 years

20’s: Take a redeye home late Sunday & stroll directly into work Monday. 30’s: Return home from a trip by Sunday supper time. 40’s: Return home Saturday from a trip b/c household needs 24-36 hours to readjust to normal conditions.

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@semil

Semil

3 years

If you can't create it, help build it. If you can't build it, invest in it. If you can't invest in it, write about it. If you can't write about it, tweet about it. If you can't tweet about it, well, then... try to create it.

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@semil

Semil

3 years

From recent @theallinpod , fascinating statistical POV by @friedberg on recent huge VC liquidity measured against forthcoming disruption of global public equities:

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8 months

A few announcements from @haystackvc : 1/ We are fortunate to have raised a fresh set of funds, Haystack VII, a $75M core seed-stage fund! We raised this back in May 2023. "Same Model, Fresh Funds, And A New Era"

Announcing Haystack VII: Same Model, Fresh Funds, And New Era

On behalf of Haystack, I am incredibly proud to make some big announcements this morning. Before these updates, I wanted to quickly take stock of where Haystack stands after a full decade of invest...

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@semil

Semil

8 years

Most voted-up comment on TechCrunch's article breaking news of Uber's Series A investment back in 2011:

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4 years

WFH w/ kids: “We’re switching off kids, work, meals, snacks. Basically wine earlier, work later, collapse in bed.” WFH no kids: “I’m learning Portuguese and just made some sourdough bread.”

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@semil

Semil

4 years

Ryan Reynolds just sold his alcohol brand (Aviation Gin) for $610M.

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@semil

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9 years

A few ppl lately have asked me “how did you get to know people in valley?” my response over email tonight: http://t.co/g5laj9Y2VT

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2 years

VC friend last night estimated U.S. endowments & foundations exposed to VC have likely lost “multiple hundred of billions” in private book value so far in 2022, but it will take many months for the marks to hit. They suggested this will greatly impact those raising new funds.

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1 year

Stripe's '22 has seen a valuation markdown, layoffs, and an IPO indefinitely delayed. There hasn't been a private company as revered as Stripe since Facebook. Everyone's bracing for rough days ahead, but looking at Stripe as a lighthouse example, it drives it home even more.

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3 years

Per @theinformation , of all the shares Sequoia holds in Airbnb today, 70% of those shares were purchased in the initial seed round for $0.01/share.

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Semil

5 years

Even though I’m addicted to podcasts, I often have to rewind back 30 seconds or more because my inner monologue is the most compelling podcast sometimes.

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4 years

Airbnb is iconic. It’s the startup many founders wished they’d started, the one many investors wish they found. Tough day for them. Hard to see past today to the other side. This will impact private valuations even more.

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Semil

5 years

Had drinks w/ friend @ large VC fund. Discussed how pre-seed/seed is diff vs Series A/B. He said something I've kept thinking about: "At seed, you back people. We need to back a company." There's a lot of truth to this & framed this way, it's a tough transition to make.

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6 years

Mission-driven startups sound nice, but also nowadays bring deeper advantages: An attractive message to compete for recruits; ability to not pay Bay Area market rates; ability to plan long-term; ability to focus on customer value & impact, and make profit along the journey.

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4 years

Friend jokingly asked me: "Does the aggregate # of ppl in Bay Area who are angels, scouts, operator-syndicates, side funds, new & regular VCs, or work in a corp VC role outnumber the # of local startup founders?" First, I laughed. Then, after thinking about it, I wasn't sure.

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Semil

4 years

I saw @onepeloton CEO address a private NYC event in 2015. He was crisp, but thought to myself "He's kind of nuts, building his own iPad??" Over next 5yrs, everything he said in that speech came true.

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Semil

3 years

Word on the street is many traditional VC firms are actively recruiting for "crypto partners" to join their firms. This will be hard to execute on - all crypto native people I see have started or are starting small funds, many backed by crypto wealth outside traditional pools.

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4 years

. @balajis rang the alarm bell on Covid-19 dating back to mid-January. He's recently stepped into another fault line re: cancel culture. It is not pretty, but he is ringing another alarm bell. In the moment, it was not immediately apparent how important each warning would be.

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4 years

Current valuation rule of thumb right now for competitive momentum Bay Area Series A & B deals right now: Growing $0 to $1M in less than 6 months? $40-100M post money. Growing $1 to $5M in less than 6 months? $150-250M post money.

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Semil

6 years

Massively untold & underreported reality of Bay Area startup ecosystem is that folks throughout their career are helped by 100s of people who either do not seek and/or cannot accept public credit for their contributions.

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@semil

Semil

5 years

Today I was snuggled next to my daughter (6yrs old), just the 2 of us, staring out over the Pacific Ocean's expanse. Me: "Do you think Moana is out there." <very long pause> Daughter: "No." Daughter: "It's not even real." <another pause> Daughter: "It's not even possible."

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@semil

Semil

5 years

tfw you’re almost fully vested...

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Semil

4 years

Twitter helped me find a career. Helped me meet so many in the tech & startup worlds. Twitter recently alerted me to possibility of pandemic. So I had some time to prepare. Friends on Twitter reinforced the urgency of this re family/house, which forced me to prioritize it.

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Semil

6 years

I can’t tell if this is a tech company or a poster for a DJ set in SF. (It’s a good ad!)

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5 years

I’ve now listened to 20+ Beto interviews (pods, Sunday talk shows etc) and feel comfortable w/ making the following assessment: The guy says absolutely nothing.

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Semil

2 years

Per Bloomberg News, todays' $200B+ loss of $FB enterprise value is the single-largest wipeout for any single company on a U.S. Exchange... ever.

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Semil

4 years

feels like a “Musk” should be a unit of measure like a Newton or Joule

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6 years

Honest Q: How does a group within Google get to the point where it’s permitted to redesign Google Finance to be basically useless?

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Semil

4 years

been thinking about this image a lot

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Semil

6 years

No judgment, but it is hard for me to personally come to grips w/ the fact that some teams w/o any lines of code written can raise $3M+ seed rounds in the Bay Area -- almost total the amount I invested from 2013-2015.

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Semil

4 years

$LULU buys Mirror for $500M, key takeaways: -Lulu had no recurring relationship w/ consumers -Lulu consumer engagement tied to store/classes -Not clear what % of clientele would go back to gyms + more SIP coming -Peloton can disrupt w/ apparel line -Big win for Female CEO + VC!

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Semil

3 years

Ok. Listend to @theallinpod Ep #48 again to absorb @balaji 's tour de force. I had to jot down the 3 big ideas he laid out so I can remember them for myself.

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3 years

Found this cleaning out a desk drawer. It wasn’t too long ago these showed up at flea markets & the like. I always was fascinated @jack had the insight to capture the info in a mag stripe in a card via audio output.

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4 years

Met VC today w/ 20+ yrs experience @ same firm (after a decade as a founder), looking at my notes: -VC = random game -impossible to identify outlier at time of investment -As randomness increases, need for conviction decreases -VCs w/ big egos struggle to embrace this randomness

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5 years

Google Docs Designers: "Let's get drunk & keep messing up the UI and see if folks still come back b/c they have no other option!" GMail Designers: "Hold my beer."

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4 years

Line I heard from a friend this week that has stuck in my head: "The value proposition for the Bay Area, the startup ecosystem -- everything around you -- has now been fully uploaded to the cloud."

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Semil

6 years

People read fewer books these days but podcast listening is on the rise, but the best way to be on a podcast is to write a book & then shill it on a podcast.

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2 years

YouTube : Google Instagram : Facebook Figma : Adobe

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5 years

Founders often want to talk about "product." And, product is super important. It's almost politically incorrect to say otherwise. Yet, most investors want to talk "Go To Market." In a sea of product overload, spotting strong GTM potential helps investors find signal.

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4 years

1/ I was curious how Series A VCs across top tier funds are thinking about A rounds. So created a very short, imperfect survey for 75 senior GPs I know personally to get a sense. 36 responded & I wanted to share results in case it helps guide early-stage founders & investors:

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4 years

This is so good on so many levels. Absolutely love the jet black bearded long-hair vibe of Jobs in this clip. Also, a fantastic set of analogies he lays out. (via @speechu )

@vijayshekhar

Vijay Shekhar Sharma

4 years

Steve Jobs on consulting profession :

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4 years

On the positive side, things I’m happy about: -that I didn’t give up alcohol -that I didn’t convert to plant-based -that I didn’t invest in Quibi

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5 years

Bay Area observation: The most talented founders are bypassing seed firms & seed rounds. It’s a free world & market. Those founders are looking for things seed funds typically don’t have: a big brand; really deep pockets; and an ability to limit dilution but still get real $.

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4 years

Wow I did not realize Twilio is a $45B company.

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4 years

A VC walks into a bar, almost orders a drink, but then realizes he would like to see two quarters of data before buying the drink. *this tweet is a joke and intended to be shared with only good-natured intentions

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3 years

In terms of historical significance, tomorrow's Coinbase listing feels like the most important, consequential company with potential for global impact and scale to emerge since the Facebook IPO in 2012.

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3 years

one shot

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5 years

Earlier this year, met a PM from a well-known tech co. Elite startup PMs have lots of market power (and make way more than most VCs). I asked him, what are the 3 co's your elite PM friends keep an eye on and/or get recruited for? -Brex -Notion -Airtable

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1 year

1999-2000: Lots of public companies with no revenues. 2021-22: Lots of private companies with $50M+ cash in the bank but no product-market fit.

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3 years

OH: "Go to market for raising venture capital is considerably easier than actual Go-to-market."

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2 years

Over past 2 weeks, as the world order is shifting in real time, one thought (re Guns Germs & Steel) that keeps swirling around in the back of my mind: The geographic position of The United States feels like the most critical component of accumulating & maintaining power.

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7 years

This exchange happens often: Founder: "Do you know any strong VPEng's?" Me: "Yep. They're starting own co's or making $750k+ salaries."

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5 years

Years ago, college was perceived to be the gateway to success; eventually, admissions processes were investigated for bias & fairness. Today, being able to start a newco & hold equity is perceived as the new success gateway; startup investors are seen as admissions departments.

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