Professor Olga Chyzh @olga_chyzh Twitter profile

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Professor Olga Chyzh

2 months

This is a story about falling victims to the most brazen bank fraud yet, proudly facilitated by #Rogers —Canada’s cellphone behemoth—and #CIBC —Canada’s major bank. @Rogers @CIBC @TorontoStar @globeandmail @rcmpgrcpolice

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

This is madness. My family in Kyiv decided to stay in their home. Several are joining territorial defense forces. Highly-educated, middle class people in their 50s. They have options to leave. And they are CHOOSING to pick up guns to defend the encircled city. #StopPutin

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

Why do so many Russian-speakers support Putin and this war? Still. Even in Ukraine (though their number is declining). And in other former satellites, or even Canada and the US. Why? How? WHY? It’s not just the Kremlin propaganda. Let me tell you a deeply personal story. 1/n

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

If you’re hoping that Western sanctions will topple the regime in Russia, here is a thread on why they won’t. 1/n

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

Deep down, they know that the Bucha massacre did happen—they just don’t care, because the victims are “inferior.” Just ask them about Russian crimes in Chechnya. #StandWithUkraine #StopPutin #BuchaMasacre #MariupolMassacre

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

To help, please call your Rep or MP to ask: 1. Cut Russia off from SWIFT 2. Provide air defense equipment to Ukraine 3. Send lethal weapons to Ukraine 4. Boycott Rus goods 5. Stop collaboration w/Russians who did not denounce the war 6. Use any influence you have to #StopPutin

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

This is mass murder with the rest of the world watching. And a mass suicide. What happened to #NeverAgain ? Or to human decency? @NATO @OlafScholz @POTUS #IStandWithUkraine #CheapGasIsNotWorthTheBlood

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

There are millions like her in Moldova, Ukraine, Russia itself, and even in Western countries like Germany, Canada and the US. We call them the "deceived generation," the last victims of Soviet propaganda.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

Decades of Soviet propaganda (backed with repression) taught the ethnic Russians about their undeniable superiority over everyone else. Why should they learn some backward language like Romanian or Ukrainian if Russian is the “purest and the most beautiful language”?

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

These people did not cause the Russian invasion—contrary to what they think, protecting them is the last thing on Putin’s mind (he doesn’t actually want to pay them pensions). But these people are complicit in the crimes being committed against Ukrainians.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

I kid you not, these were the conversations I listened to as a kid in our Russian-speaking circle of friends. More surprisingly, these are the conversations I still hear (even from my own relatives) today, 30 years later.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

These people still hope that Russia will come to save them from the “inferior” national majorities AND give them their coveted Russian pension. These people are still waiting for Russia to give back the money they lost (na knijke) when the Soviet Union broke up.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

How and why should they accept a government made up of non-Russians? And anyway, there was no point in trying, because Russia was going to come back and re-absorb all the former satellites soon enough, setting everything back how it was.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

Tanya is not a monster (at least not fulltime)—she is a highly educated woman that plays the piano and casually quotes Russian literature in everyday conversations. But if you ask her about the Bucha massacre, she’ll tell you it didn’t happen.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

It is a matter of weeks before the state can no longer pay its employees—doctors, teachers, administrator, but also the police, the military-industrial complex, and the military itself. No new tanks, destroyers, or howitzers, and no soldiers to shoot them either. 23/

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

I was a child, so none of this was a big deal. I quickly picked up Romanian, as children do. For the Russian-speaking adults, however, it was not so easy. It is difficult to learn a completely new language as an adult. But the real obstacle was the hubris.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

The break-up of the USSR marked the start of nation-building (actually re-building), pitting Russian minorities against the ethnic majorities. After more than 50 years of repression (think Bucha), the ethnic majorities finally got a say in the politics of their own states.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

All of a sudden, ethnic Russians who refused to learn the national language, started getting passed over for promotions in favor of those (including ethnic Russians) who spoke the national language.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

In Moldova where I lived, everything around me—TV programming, store signs, street signs, and ever street names—changed from Russian to Romanian.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

This nation-building consisted of downplaying or outright rejecting everything Soviet (read Russian) in favor of national (Moldovan, Ukrainian), and the corresponding change in the distribution of power and wealth.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

When Russian missiles hit my hometown of Odesa on Feb 24, my mom jumped on the first bus out of the country. Her obvious destination was Moldova—because of geographical proximity, but also, because our family lived there until 1995 when we moved to Ukraine.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

Please consider using this form letter to ask you Rep/MP for more help for Ukraine:

Form letter—help Ukraine

docs.google.com

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

Tanya was irritated. It was her birthday, and my mom’s unexpected visit was at an bad time. The Russian invasion shook up the entire world, forcing millions of Ukrainians to walk over the border with Moldova in the middle of winter—and Tanya was having a party!

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

Declaring mobilization was a risky gamble that may lead to Putin’s demise. But not because it is unpopular with the public.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

Other changes included an increase in the hours of Romanian (in schools for Russian-speakers, like the one I attended), as well as the content of literature and history classes.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

My mom has a network of friends there—Russian-speakers who, unlike our family, still live in Moldova. From the bus, she called her old friend—I’ll call her Tanya—who still lives in Moldova, and asked if she could spend the night—she could only find a hotel room for the day after.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

Putin is their protector. If he goes, they will lose their remaining assets in Russia, may face corruption charges, prosecution, or worse. However sad they are to let go of their Western assets, oligarchs have even more to lose if Putin is no longer there to protect them. 9/

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

First, practically all assets oligarchs manage—entire industries—ultimately belong to the state, and currently the state is Putin. Putin is the final arbiter, the oligarchs are simply managers delegated with over-seeing day-to-day activities. 4/

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

What the sanctions DO achieve is the rapid weakening of the Russia’s economy, and with that, it’s military capacity. 22/

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

To bring regime change, sanctions must prevent the leader from distributing rents to the winning coalition, ie elites will remove the leader who is no longer useful to them. Putin’s winning coalition roughly consists of two groups of elites: oligarchs and strongmen. 2/

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

The bottom line: The current sanctions decrease the size of the pie, but the pie is still very large and Putin’s ability to distribute it is intact. No other candidate would guarantee a similar distribution to the current players. 20/

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

Second, the relationship between oligarchs and the state is one-directional. Unlike Yeltsin oligarchs, who were more partners of the state, Putin’s oligarchs have no political power whatsoever. Their domain is strictly economic, and this is well-understood. 5/

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

Essentially, they got buckets of cash to keep their noses out of politics. Those who didn’t accept this role were forced into exile or worse (e.g., Berezovsky, Gusinsky). 6/

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

Strongmen have no reason to remove Putin now—he is fulfilling their dream of a ruthless police state. 14/

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

Putin has never trusted the oligarchs, and made sure that, no matter how rich, they never feel 100% safe. Enter the second group—the strongmen, Putin’s St. Petersburg friends. 10/

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

Originally street thugs, middle managers, low-level administrators, special ops, scientists, and athletes, they went from rags to riches when Putin put them in key government and other power positions. They are his closest friends and have the most direct access to his person.11/

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

The oligarchs’ biggest asset is their personal connection to Putin. They use it to offer “insurance services” to business partners. This “insurance” protects from competition, and possible attacks by the other elite group—the strongmen. 7/

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

If anything, they view the looming Russia’s isolation and the forced return of the oligarchs to Russia as a benefit. Autarky and isolation facilitate repression, and further strengthens their position. 13/

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

They also have the most political influence. Strongmen are ideologically conservative and hostile towards the West. They view economics as a tool of the state and are unconcerned with Western sanctions. 12/

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

If you speak Russian, here is the source for background on the power dynamics: 24/24

Пять путинских элит на фоне транзита

Россия издалека может казаться страной с мощной консолидированной элитой, тесно сплоченной вокруг своего лидера Владимира Путина. Однако реальность совсем другая: элита становится все более фрагмен...

carnegie.ru

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

We all love to hate the oligarchs, yet there is more to know about them than catches the eye. Beyond the gaudy décor, overpriced yachts, and extravagant parties, there are two important factors. 3/

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

Silver linings: First, the oligarchs ought to be growing wary by the rise of the strongmen. Second, their wealth and status hinge solely on their direct access to Putin—they have no mechanism for legitimating the continuation of their position beyond Putin’s rule. 15/

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

It’s natural to be worried about the threat of a nuclear war, especially with all the rhetoric coming out of Russia. Here is some analysis from the perspective of research on authoritarian regimes, war outcomes, and international bargaining.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

As far as the oligarchs are concerned, Putin’s continued support, and his continuation in power, guarantees their own position and provides additional money-making opportunities. 8/

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

Their friendship with Putin is not something they can pass on to their children. And Putin is not getting any younger. 16/

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

And selecting a new candidate is a coordination problem of its own. Hence, the probability of a regime change is low. 21/

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

Third, Putin is growing less and less interested in arbitrating their economic squabbles (e.g., privatization of Bashneft), and now delegates decisions that are of less interest to him. 17/

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

The significance of today’s attacks in Crimea is so much more than destroying Russian air cover for the battle for Kherson. That the US signed off on Ukraine striking a target in Crimea is a major game-changer in this war.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

Unfortunately, this is still not enough, in my opinion. The safest solution for the oligarchs--and several have taken this route—is to jump on the bandwagon, embrace the aggressive-repressive direction in Russia’s politics, join the chorus. 18/

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

I don’t know who still needs to hear this, but Russian-speaking does NOT equal pro-Russian, and the Russian-speaking regions of Ukraine are NOT pro-Russian.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

Because the strategy is to always exaggerate your resolve--and your opponent expects you to--when NATO says they will NEVER intervene, it sends a strong signal that they have no resolve. This is an invitation for Putin to do as he pleases--it EMBOLDENS him. Beyond just Ukraine.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

Mobilization set up for failure the hardliners within Putin’s inner circle, the very group that had clamored for it. Once it fails to turn the war around, they will face a choice between taking the fall or turning against their leader.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

This is what my @guardian op-ed says, the title they chose focuses on the military aspect, but not the main tension in the inner circle.

Putin needs nothing short of a miracle to avoid a devastating defeat in Ukraine | Olga Chyzh

Troops melting away and Russians fleeing abroad to avoid mobilisation doesn’t augur well for Putin’s latest gamble, says researcher Olga Chyzh

www.theguardian.com

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

The West, especially @POTUS , has demonstrated a complete lack of the most basic understanding of crisis bargaining, brinkmanship, and deterrence. Here are the Cliff’s notes of Schelling, Fearon, and Powell with an application to #PutinsWar . This is taught in any Intro to IR. 1/n

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

NATO keeps announcing that they fold, which prompts Putin to keep poking to find out the limits (e.g. his recent threat to target the weapons convoys).

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

The reality is that Russia lacks the logistics and officer personnel to manage the army of its current size. Quadrupling the troop numbers, as the promised 300,000 would mean, would exponentially exacerbate these problems.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

Had NATO signals been ambiguous (even if their true intention was NOT to defend Ukraine), that would have raised Putin’s expected costs of war-he doesn't want to fight NATO. Even a small risk of NATO involvement would have forced him to tread lightly, and maybe, prevented the war

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

In order to stay in power, any leader, even Putin must maintain the support of some proportion of the constituents. For autocratic leaders, like Putin, this means securing continued support of his inner circle, whether through policy, private payoffs.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

Putin knows that a likely defeat will sow panic among the members of his inner circle. And when narcissists panic, they destroy everything around them.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

And when the generals’ dreams of glory come crashing down, the FSB (their rival bloc) will be there to make sure none of todays’ hardliners ever climb from under the rubble.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

Now that all the military’s cards have been played, it’s only a matter of time before they have to choose between taking the fall or turning on their leader.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

In this fantasy, the military is the heroes, unstoppable but by the weight of their new medals. What they are forgetting is that nothing in this was has gone according to Russia’s best-case scenario.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

Putin’s inner circle consists of two rival blocs: the heads of the military/security structures and the top-ranking intelligence officers (the FSB).

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

Putin can see this coming. There is a reason he postponed mobilization for as long as he could. He waited so long that some of the hardliners (Kadyrov, Prigozhin) found the courage to publicly call him out for it.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

Even once his speech was scheduled to air, Putin postponed the announcement for yet another day at the last minute. He didn’t want mobilization, his hand was forced.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

The hardliners (the military) who called for mobilization are short-sighted. They see the best-case scenario in which the over-whelming troop numbers force Ukraine to accept peace of Russia’s terms.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

When @POTUS goes on record saying that NATO will not defend Ukraine militarily, even in case of a chemical attack—that weakens NATO’s bargaining position. The strategy is to keep the adversary uncertain (even if you are bluffing).

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

Putin is NOT cornered. He does NOT need an offramp to save face. He is NOT going to lash out and nuke the world—even if Ukrainian forces kick his troops all the way out of Ukraine, including Donbas and Crimea.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

It’s Putin’s side of the bargain to ensure the safety of his inner circle, and he did this by postponing escalating his “special operation” to a full-scale war for as long as he could.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

But there is no cost to him to keep threatening: he counts on mass hysteria in the West to help him extract some sweet concessions, like a bigger chunk of the Black Sea coast in exchange for a ceasefire.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

When Putin hears again and again that NATO will do NOTHING militarily to stop his invasion, that decreases his costs for war, increases his demands in negotiations, and outright emboldens him.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

Now, does he want you to think that he might use nukes if case of a defeat? Of course, he does. It’s a bargaining strategy. He thrives on the mass hysteria in the West, he laughs at NYT op-eds that pedal his talking points for him.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

@AlexSligo I hope you are right, but I think the chances of a popular revolution in today’s Russia are unlikely. The people are disillusioned, scared, and passive. Many buy into the propaganda even still.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

When they hear the words "siege of Kyiv", every single person in Poland knows that it is going to be the "siege of Warsaw" next. Same for CZE, BGR, EST, LVA, LTU, ROU & SVK. And then Germany. He will not stop at Ukraine. #IStandWithUkraine #StopPutin

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

The bottom line is that the threat of nuclear escalation is low, no matter how this war ends for Russia.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

And this is because the war in Ukraine is NOT his do-or-die moment, it’s NOT the rope he will hang on, and it will NOT lead to his removal from power, no matter what happens. To understand this, you have to understand the inner workings of the Putin regime and some IR theory.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

NATO may not think they are fighting Russia—because there are no NATO troops in Ukraine—but Russia definitely thinks that it is fighting NATO.

Sergey Karaganov: «We are at war with the West. The European security order is illegitimate»

Putin’s former advisor Karaganov: a settlement might involve partition of Ukraine, but risks of escalation are growing

www.corriere.it

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

The goal of crisis bargaining is to avoid war. But counter-intuitively, you often have to escalate the threat of war to get your best bargaining outcome WITHOUT going to war. Putin understands crisis bargaining, and that gives him the upper hand.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

Another bargaining tool Putin uses brilliantly is brinkmanship, which is taking actions that increase the chance of an accidental war. The goal is to make the adversary lose their nerve and back down. Putin engaged in brinkmanship when he ordered to put his nukes on high alert.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

Every leader stays in power as long as they maintain the support of their winning coalition. In democracies, this coalition is the minimum number of voters that guarantees an election win. In autocracies, the voters don’t matter, and the winning coalition consists of top elites.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

His inner circle is behind this war 100%--this group of people are politically conservative, anti-West, and anti-democracy. They are using the war to reign in the last of the independent media and political opposition.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

Bluffing is the name of the game in international bargaining. He is not going to start a nuclear Armageddon. Not over sanctions. Not over offensive weapons. Not over planes.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

Had the stakes been real, he would have modernized his military. Instead, he fired Serdyukov, who was actually trying to modernize the military, and replaced him with Shoigu, a push-over whose only talent is to divvy up rents.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

The point is that Putin does not need to win, or even do reasonably well, in this war to stay in power. To him, this war is not even a real war—it is a side mission, a “special operation,” a real-life game of risk he is playing for entertainment.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

Putin’s winning coalition consists of a handful of FSB/SBU officers and top military officials—people that helped him rise to power, and who he repaid with keeping/giving them top positions within his government.

The sanctions strategy is flawed. To defeat Putin, you have to know how the Kremlin works | Olga...

The west misunderstands the Russian concept of oligarchy, which leaves these powerful actors more beholden to the state, says Olga Chyzh

www.theguardian.com

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

What would Putin do in case of a catastrophic defeat in Ukraine? Let’s see, we actually have historical precedent. The 1st Chechen War was a fiasco: Russian forces suffered tremendous losses and a decisive defeat in the battle of Grozny against an outnumbered & outgunned opponent

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

The stakes are not real to him—he places no value on human life. To him, casualties are simply fewer mouths to feed.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

They are unconcerned with sanctions and the economy. In their view, Russia will only benefit from becoming more self-reliant. A new iron curtain is their dream come true.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

Putin will stay in power for as long as he can maintain the support of this group of people. He maintains this support by providing a mix of private rents and policies they support. So how does the outcome of this war affect Putin’s support? It doesn’t.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

What happens to the support of this group if Russia loses the war? Nothing. No matter what happens, the outcome will be viewed as an honorable draw in a fight with NATO.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

What happened to Yeltsin who was President at the time? He won his re-election (Did he win it fair and square? No, but Putin is no stranger to voter suppression, media control, and arresting his political opposition either).

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

By responding, you take control. Ignoring the threat does NOT help preserve peace or de-escalate—it gives all the control to the opponent.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

Basically, the bargaining strategy is to ALWAYS exaggerate your resolve, say "maybe" NOT "never". Even if you have no intention to fight at all. (That is why Putin did not believe Ukraine).

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

Had Putin’s own fate been on the line, he would have put real generals in charge (rather than micro-managing the battles himself down to the rank of brigade commander).

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

Today I helped my mother apply for refugee status. One day she was a retired teacher redecorating her bedroom, the next day she left her house—my childhood home—with only the cash she had on hand and an overnight bag. #StandWithUkriane #StopPutinNOW

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

Now that was not a threat against Ukraine—that was a direct threat to the West. (It’s not Ukraine he plans on nuking—a topic for another thread). The counter-move is to escalate further, to raise the stakes, so that the opponent backs down.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

But if Crimea is actually on the table, if the US is on board with Ukraine taking it back, that changes everything. Not just for Ukraine. For Putin and his hold on power.

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

War is a bargaining failure. The goal of crisis bargaining is to find the bargaining range-the division of pie that ALL parties prefer to fighting. Such a bargaining range always exists: war is costly-it decreases the size of the pie. The pie is always larger before the war start

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

A suicide epidemic among Russian gas oligarchs? 1/4 April 20, 2022--Vladislav Avayev, former Vice President for Gazprombank, allegedly shot his wife and daughter, then himself.

Ex-Kremlin found shot dead alongside family

A former Kremlin official and ally of Vladimir Putin has been found dead alongside his wife and young daughter in their multi-million dollar Moscow apartment.

www.skynews.com.au

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

5 years

Can hateful tweets cause hateful actions? What if the authors of hateful tweets are elected officials? Our new paper shows hateful rhetoric by US representatives is correlated with incidents of hate crimes:

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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

2 years

That is why---should Ukraine take Crimea back—that would be the end of Putin. Now, taking back Crimea is still a big “should,” but all of a sudden went from a non-starter to a possibility.

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