๐ขLaunch Alert! ๐
OptionKaro proudly introduces a FREE DTE Finder for Options Traders!
Dive into efficient trading with our tool, which is designed for all index options on NSE & BSE.
Features:
โ Today's Expiry
โ Index-wise full DTE calendar
The Story of VIX
As Options traders, we all look at VIX or at some point realise its importance. But have you ever wondered where did it come from? Who were the brains behind it?
I did, and hereโs the back story. Sit back and read on. โ๏ธ
Why is this guy still on a cycle? Can we get him a scooter?
Can someone please help in identifying him?
Please retweet! for better reach.
@deepakshenoy
@b50
Thread - The Story of the 9:20 Straddle | The strategy that transformed options trading in India. ๐
In this thread i'll take you through the past, present and the possible future of this strategy, so bring your coffee, sit back and read on.
Nifty50 Trend following goes long today at 19425 (Aug Futures) - This is the same system discussed in Face2Face with
@vivbajaj
If you haven't yet watched the show here's the link -
#nifty_tf
I woke up today to see an unsolicited whatsapp message about
@traderscarnival
. Which is fine, there are several such spam messages which we all get. But as I sip my morning coffee, I was thinking about the value such meetups and conferences offer. 1/12
Last week, there was quite a bit of furore on X when the news came about HFTs like Jane Street and Millennium eating into the probable profits of Indian retail traders by causing spikes and hunting their stop losses.
Sadly, many investors, fund managers and influencers doubled
There this 1% returns per day scam going on, this weekend in the twitter snake-oil universe. Hereโs something you need to understand. This is not a thread about whether 1% a day is possible or not, nor is it abt whether you should have 1% a day as an โobjectiveโ /goal or not. 1/9
How to think about Investing?
A few months back I moved out of
@capitalmind_in
to join
@investmintclub
and many who used to interact with me on their amazing Slack-based community, reached out to me, and they all had the same question?
If you want to master intraday trading in indexes, this podcast episode by
@chatwithtraders
featuring
@Shaq48_Trading
is a must-listen.
There are so many golden nuggets in there. A lot of it also applies to our indexes. I use some of these methods myself.
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฟ๐ถ๐๐ฒ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ฟ๐ถ๐๐ฒ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐ผ๐ฝ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐ ๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ถ๐ป ๐๐ป๐ฑ๐ถ๐ฎ?
FY 22-23 saw the total turnover of index options rise up by 87% while the equity segment was down by 20%?
Is it the beginning of a new trend in options?
Hereโs a deep dive into the topic โคต๏ธ
Started with this last week, is a must read for anyone working on designing trading systems, so find out more about Rob, he is nothing short of a legend in the Systematic/Quant Trading and Automation space.
Mitron, I am hiring โQuant Analystsโ
@investmintclub
Experience with time-series data analysis, research, and modeling
Knowledge of Python libraries such as Pandas/NumPy/Statsmodels/TA-lib
Trading experience is strongly preferred!
DMs Open!
@deepakshenoy
- Financial assets over Real assets any day! Hats off sir for taking the path less travelled.
Tell me where in the world do you find a fund manager who doesn't own a house? Read more ๐
You can read, learn, and meet 100s of people to understand what's happening in the world of trading, but better still, you can spend a few hours with
@vishalmehta29
Thanks for your time Vishal, that was a long pending meeting.
There is a lot of hue and cry going on in the Indian fintwit about influencers their advice, how it tempts people who in turn lose their hard-earned money, all that cry, and agree it's bad.
In all of this, the focus is on those who 'tempt' and not on the 'desperate idiots' who
A blog, then a community, a PMS and very soon a MF
Main akela hi chala tha janib-e-manzil magar, Log saath aate gaye aur karwaan banta gaya
Guess Majrhooh was referring to you sir
@deepakshenoy
Four ways to hedge your equity portfolio ๐ก๏ธ
With markets making a new ATH, the age-old question comes back again: will the rally persist, or are we on the brink of a market crash?
Frankly, I don't know, But I can offer an intelligent solution โ i.e. hedging your portfolio.
Its been a month since we
@capitalmind_in
wrote this piece. We were 145 days into the uptrend, we are now at 175 days. 183 days being the median.
On price, we were 23% from 200 DMA then, 30% is what we expected, and that's where we are now! ๐ค
For anyone with even a hint of curiosity about the history of global finance and India's place in it, I highly recommend tuning into this episode of Everything is Everything.
Around the 50-minute mark,
@ajay_shah
dives into the fascinating history of native Indians engaging in
SEBI has a consultative paper on API based automated trading with brokers -
- All api based trading will be called "algo" trading
- Every such algo must be approved by exchange
- Algos to get unique ids so they will know who started each order
One of those Friday evenings spent listening to
@ajay_shah
and
@amitvarma
, talking about Freidman, Hayek, Coase, and yes, Bastiat.
Cannot thank you both enough.
The story of Alpha
In the world of investing and trading, we all use the word 'alpha' a lot. But where does it come from and what does it mean.
In this thread, I go back in time to figure that out for you โคต๏ธ
Been testing a trend-following system on Banknifty. Banknify has been trending better than Nifty in the test period of 4 months.
Nifty did 800 points vs. Banknifty's 2900 points in the same period.
Even trend following with short options on BN captures a good 80% of futures
Wow
@Prashantshah267
you should make a series out of this. Too good!
Those of you who don't understand the concept of OI you should watch it! Even if you do, you should still watch it!
I met a few startup founders in Mumbai. They said something about Bangalore founders; maybe there is an element of truth in it.
"They (Bangalore founders) talk more about raising money than solving real-world problems. Some didn't even know what they wanted to build"
Kal ke
#MastersInOne
Series mein milte hain ek shaqs se who uses AI (ChatGPT) Options mein Trade karne ke liye!
Milte hain kal.....
Keep Watching
Keep Learning
Keep Earning
#MastersInOne
He was the first to argue that a fundโs performance should be judged not just only on returns but also on the risk it takes to generate that return.
He used the concept of โvarianceโ to mean volatility or risk.
In
#CapitalmindChase
strategy the Futures component uses a Stop Loss based approach to Trend Following, the other way to do it is to use a SAR (Stop & Reverse) approach. SAR systems are always in trade, but are not the best to catch trends early - Here's a comparison of both. 1/2
What an episode!
Would you like to listen to a story that has India, China, America, CIA, Plutonium, Mountains, Stealth, subterfuge and snow storms?
This was my favourite story, though!
Great one
@ajay_shah
and
@amitvarma
Trend following - a gift that keeps giving. ๐
One of the trend-following models that I track on NIFTY50 has captured 1000 points for the third time this year!
#trendfollowing
#investmint
If you are a DIY Momentum Investor, and are looking to screen stocks and create your own momentum portfolio, you should explore
Its built by a savyy momo investor and is used by many serious investors.
will require a paid subscription from 1st April 2024
I have tried to price it reasonably at INR 3,999/- per year to cover my infrastructure, maintainence and NSE licensing costs.
Here are the details:
Today marks the 38th anniversary of the Bhopal Gas Tragedy.โฃ On the night of Dec'84, an American-owned pesticide plant in Bhopal leaked at least 30tns of highly toxic gases.
I was four and it took more than a decade for me to process what happened that night.
Lest we forget!
Been in the space for close to two decades, here are my 6 reasons why traders fail.
1. Under capitalized
2. Over leveraged (related to 1)
3. Strategy hopping
4. Trading with gut feel, and not understanding the p&l cycle
5. Dependence on one meta factor, trend following or mean
One reason many fail in trading is succumbing to FOMO by observing others, often abandoning their own tried & tested setups.
Market conditions vary: some are ideal for trend following, some for mean reversion & some for non-directional strategies.
You must remain true to your
@saketh1998
A few things on which I would like to disagree with you.
1. EMH (Efficient Market Hypothesis) - What EMH says is that price at any point in time reflects all possible information. It's a theory. If you believe markets are efficient, they always are, be it in 2020 or
Why are 920 straddles not working anymore? I Have done a detailed analysis on the same.
Even though we have an automation platform
@FinTarget
and this video can directly affect that.
I feel showing what's true will only help in building the trust more than affecting it.
Hope
Nifty50 Trend Following - Dec' 23 Monthly and 2023 CY Returns
Model returns for 2023 CY stand at 35% vs. 23% for Nifty50
15 years of continuous outperformance!
2023 Trade Log
Strategy video -
If you are interested in
@StoicTrader
@sweetspottrader
Orderbook (LOB) Imbalance precedes Orderflow, hence is more predictive, this paper gives a very simple way to calculate it, but you would need to code it and get it from an API no off the self platforms as of now will give this info -
For those who are saying shifting of Banknifty expiry day to Friday won't have an impact on their backtests.
Please for Black & Scholes's sake understand that there is something called the "weekend effect" and that would impact the decay profile of the options.
1/2
Till the 1950's fund managers were judged based on absolute performance. If you gave them 100 and they turned it to 112, you would say they did 12% on it. Things changed after Harry Markowitz published a groundbreaking paper titled โ Portfolio Selectionโ.
Black Monday's crash of 1987, pushed JP Morgan's then-CEO to devise a daily measure of risk. Till Guldimann who was at JP Morgan created VaR that used the historical volatility of markets to calculate the maximum the bank could lose on any given day, with 95 percent certainty.
They say - Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery but, this is blatant plagiarism.
Please avoid doing this and delete this thread
@Sidcap_100
@vihan13singh
The Story of VIX
As Options traders, we all look at VIX or at some point realise its importance. But have you ever wondered where did it come from? Who were the brains behind it?
I did, and hereโs the back story. Sit back and read on. โ๏ธ
The way to price these options was invented by three academics - Fisher Black, Robert Merton and Myron Scholes.
In 1973, they created a model to calculate the price of these options, volatility was an input in it. This became popularly known as the Black & Scholes Model.
If you are new to options trading or want to learn, here are 7 free resources I have curated for you.
Before that, I share a few tips on how to use them effectively. Thread follows.
Doing a series of posts on Trend Following, with a DIY approach and a specific focus on ^NIFTY50. Would include the theory, techniques and the works. Join me on this quest! -
By 1990s JP Morgan made VAR open for others to use.
By now volatility had become the most accepted way to measure financial risk, around this time other academics and practitioners started laying the groundwork to create products to eventually trade volatility itself.
The logic was simple, if an asset is more volatile you should expect more return from it. Compare stocks with bonds here. Stocks are more volatile so expect more from them.
๐ขInteresting things are happening at OptionKaro!
This Sunday (7th Jan'24 / 14:00 Hrs), we are doing our first guided huddle on Mastering Options Trading
A unique opportunity for our community members to learn and discuss complex topics in a simple way.
DM if you wish to
NIFTY^50 Trend Following sitting pretty at 790 Points
BANKNIFTY Trend Following at 1700 Points.
Since trend followers are in a happy mood, here's a joke.
โHow many people does it take to run a Trend-following system successfully?โ
Answer: โA man and a dog.โ
โWhat does the
In other words, Markowitz developed an academic model with which investors could measure the trade-offs they faced between risk and return. And in the process, volatility became the reigning proxy for risk.
Just 5 days into the short and the nifty50 index is close to 500 points down and banknifty 1200 points, trend following is hard, but at the end its rewarding, both in terms of sleep and portfolio stability.
Have also been actively testing a options selling version and that has
One of the largest moderated community of DIY traders & investors in the country IMO. Personally to me, its like a university of sorts, take your pick and attend any class that you like. Rest assured you will come out wiser.
#CapitalmindPremium
Where to invest once you are rich?
@RajeevThakkar
ji puts it so succinctly.
TLDR: If the goal is to grow your wealth, avoid venture funding, avoid private equity, avoid structured products, and be very cautious of PMS/AIFs, as their returns are bad at a median level.
Next comes VAR (Value at Risk) Till about 1980โs past 30-day average market movement was used as a proxy for volatility. Similar to a rolling 30-day rate of change.
Nifty50 Trend Following - Nov' 23 Monthly and YTD Returns
November also did quite well, model returns (YTD) stand at 24.56% vs. 15.18% of NIFTY50
2023 Trade Log
Strategy discussed here -
If you are interested in receiving
If you're looking for an easy-to-execute positional BankNifty trend-following strategy centred on range breakout dynamics with clear rules, look no further and enrol in
@spandanvyas
's course on
@Upsurge_club
.
Today was a dull day in the markets, and I made good use of it by
How and when did the Black Scholes Merton Option Pricing formula become mainstream, and how did it indirectly lead to the collapse of LTCM?
Must watch documentary. Save it for later.
It's a BBC Horizon episode from 1999.
Launching Banknifty Trend Following Strategy!
YTD Returns stand at 6540 Points or 28% Returns on Notional.
While underlying NIFTY BANK did just about 10%
Strategy similar to Nifty Trend following discussed here -
Rules have been adapted to Banknifty
Understanding Overnight Contribution
The recent ongoing Banknifty trade did close to 3000 points, but did you know close to 56% percent of that happened through Gaps?
On an average close to 60% of trends happens through gaps, if you are looking at capturing large trends, make
BSE Options Contracts vs. NSE Options Contracts
BSE is almost at 20%; 2024 would be super interesting, we need some balance here, and if the markets remain tepid, more folks will turn to derivatives.
Good times ahead!
Comrades, I am hiring โQuant Analystsโ
@investmintclub
Experience with time-series data analysis, research, and modeling is key to the role.
Knowledge of Python libraries such as Pandas/NumPy/Statsmodels/TA-lib
Trading experience is ideally preferred!
DMs Open!
How can we be selective about content consumption?
Avoid folks who are trending or very popular, they are usually popular because they talk 'clickbaity' stuff.
Reality is boring, and folks who make real sense would seldom be clickbaity.
Eg. No serious trader would say stuff