george davey smith @mendel_random Twitter profile

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george davey smith

5 years

1/n A webinar from @CDC_Genomics on Mendelian randomization (MR) highlights some under-appreciated aspects of MR; this thread outlines these

What is Mendelian Randomization and How Can it be Used as a Tool for...

Dr. George Davey Smith gives an overview of the field of Mendelian Randomization, and the opportunities it provides for assessing causal inference in medicin...

www.youtube.com

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

2 years

I’m clearly suffering from memory loss as I have vague recall of 2020/1 when I thought some TV ⭐️ experts were resisting any relaxation of lockdowns. But apparently they weren’t & were worried about the terrible effects on kids. Will check myself in for cognitive function tests

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

3 years

Vaccine advice quiz: would you prefer to take advice from (1) a self-appointed group who fail to recognise SARS-CoV-2 is endemic 18 months after it became obvious (2) a due-process appointed group that actually consists of established vaccine experts?

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

3 years

Convalescent plasma therapy used in 100,000s of patients and Recovery trial now suggests no benefit & evidence grows that its use has contributed to emergence of new variants. Don't believe "real world evidence": RCTs essential to avoid unanticipated harms

SARS-CoV-2 evolution during treatment of chronic infection

Nature - Chronic infection with SARS-CoV-2 leads to the emergence of viral variants that show reduced susceptibility to neutralizing antibodies in an immunosuppressed individual treated with...

www.nature.com

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

7 years

PNAS editor's rejection of paper that fails to replicate highly cited PNAS nonsense with 10x statistical power and vastly better phenotyping

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

3 years

As things get better we see the ratcheting up of how "worrying", "very worrying" and "extremely worrying" the any signs of relaxation of restrictions are. Perhaps what's unbearably worrying is the potential disappearance of a daily TV & radio platform for expressing such worry?🤔

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

3 years

@MariaUloko Congrats to your dad! My dad who left school at minimum school leaving age in 1930s got a degree with the wonderful @OpenUniversity at 66, proudest (and super emotional) moment applauding as he collected his degree. Hope you can see him receive his degree in these weird times

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

7 years

Conferences/seminars have increasingly weird and restrictive rules on sharing what is said: here is a standard disclaimer for talks I give

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

3 years

Trying to find the epidemiology textbook that says that every single form of study design is invalid and unethical, except for the use of fear-inducing floating numerators. Anyone any ideas which one it is?

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

1 year

China is abandoning its zero covid before the policy further destabilizes the country. In the UK as well as China a self-appointed group denied the scientific evidence, which is that there was no other prospect than SARS-CoV-2 becoming endemic /cont

China retreats from sweeping zero-Covid policies as economic toll mounts

Government for first time allows some positive cases to home quarantine after trade contracts sharply

www.ft.com

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

2 months

Mendelian Randomisation (MR) is going to hell in a handcart, with an exponential weekly increase of papers with Mendelian Randomisation in the title, most of them nonsense. 25th April 4.30pm online or in person @ucl I'll talk about what should be done

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

6 years

The late Doug Altman was the most generous & modest global (statistical) superstar you could ever meet, asked for an opinion of an idea he'd sound so positive it would take a while for you to realise he was gently explaining to you a fundamental flaw he'd instantly spotted

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

4 months

The massive promotion of some "experts" during covid by certain media, eg @guardian made some views, like "zero covid" - that were rejected by most scientists - appear rational. An ironic pairing here & short 🧵/cont …… …

Nicola Sturgeon's adviser says 'I was wrong to push for zero Covid'

The influential public health scientist who advised former Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon that it was possible to eliminate Covid now admits that she made 'a mistake'.

www.dailymail.co.uk

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

3 years

I am extremely worried that not enough people are extremely worried

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

3 years

A reminder of the danger of “long placebo”

Mark Lewis

@marklewismd

3 years

Yikes, would you take a drug* with this side effect profile?! (*oh, it's the placebo arm of the Pfizer vaccine trial)

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

6 months

In 2018 we published a non-linear Mendelian randomisation (NLMR) study in @ObesitySociety and it is now clear the method we applied is deeply flawed, so in October we published a Perspective correcting it. A 🧵on the cautionary tale of NLMR

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

2 years

2 years ago @IndependentSage said schools should not open until there was #ZeroCovid . Schools would still be shut today. If I've missed their apology for advocating further harm to the lives of disadvantaged kids, can someone point me to this apology?

Independent SAGE - 14.07.20

null

www.youtube.com

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

2 years

"Epidemiology for the uninitiated" by Geoffrey Rose and others is now online @bmj_latest 🥳🎉 The misleading "floating numerators" that were widely tweeted on eg long covid in children could have been avoided if their authors had read this

Epidemiology for the uninitiated

www.bmj.com

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

3 years

Our reply to a @bmj_latest "rapid response" to our editorial "Closing schools is not evidence based and harms children". Conclusion: a long list of signatories / ”co-authors” is no guarantee of accuracy @ProfSarahJLewis @apsmunro @AllysonPollock

Re: Pandemic policy must address SARS-CoV-2 transmission in schools

www.bmj.com

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

7 months

Finally Simpson’s paradox in a way even I can follow …

Tom Richardson

@iTomRichardson

7 months

@michelnivard

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

3 years

England playing in major international football tournaments increases heart attack deaths. We *must* stop such games for public health reasons. Will 121 people please join me in writing a letter to @lancet to ensure this outrage is stopped?

Admissions for myocardial infarction and World Cup football: database survey

Objectives: To examine hospital admissions for a range of diagnoses on days surrounding England's 1998 World Cup football matches. Design: Analysis of hospital admissions obtained from English...

www.bmj.com

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

6 months

Brilliant seminar by Richard Peto @HarvardChanSPH about the influence of residual confounding in observational epidemiological studies. Compelling actual and hypothetical examples immediately suggest sensitivity analyses explicitly for this should be /cont

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

4 years

This is the best single thing I’ve seen written on where we are with #COVID19 (and both interviews worth watching in full)

Which epidemiologist do you believe?

The debate about lockdown is not a contest between good and evil

unherd.com

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

4 years

As an elderly drunk epidemiologist I realise it’s fortunate I have no power

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

7 years

Mendelian randomization explained in two minutes

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

2 years

"You cannot enjoy it" Zero covid explained in a brilliant dispatch by @TomHale_ from the Beijing Winter Olympics

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

2 years

This was written 15th July 2020, the day after Sir David King, chair of @IndependentSage said schools should be kept shut till there was zero covid. Everyone should now contemplate how that would have been, who would have been most damaged by it, and who would have been fine

Allyson Pollock

@AllysonPollock

2 years

Spot on as usual @mendel_random - but no-one but govt policy makers were not listening..

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

5 years

The most highly cited gene-environment interactions in psychiatric epidemiology (and perhaps in the field overall), one of which was Science paper of the year for 2002, are spurious. Plenty of lessons to be learnt here.

No Support for Historical Candidate Gene or Candidate Gene-by-Interaction Hypotheses for Major...

Objective: Interest in candidate gene and candidate gene-by-environment interaction hypotheses regarding major depressive disorder remains strong despite controversy surrounding the validity of...

ajp.psychiatryonline.org

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

3 months

Paper in @bmj_latest shows ultraprocessed food consumption is associated with every adverse health outcome that poor people have higher risks of than the well healed. Here @MarcusMunafo explains why these associations should not be interpreted as causal

Re: Ultra-processed food exposure and adverse health outcomes: umbrella review of epidemiological...

www.bmj.com

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

3 years

Is anyone else feeling enormously cheered up by the fact their twitter feed is becoming less and less covid-centric?

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

3 years

This letter in ⁦ @bmj_latest ⁩ from two people who’ve spent their careers researching vaccines deserves to be read

Should COVID-19 be a vaccine disease or a childhood disease?

www.bmj.com

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

7 months

In "Noodles, no nulls and numb skulls: threats to the future of Mendelian randomization" I discuss the triple threats of nonsense papers, methods no one understands that produce obviously spurious findings, & why MR studies now all have positive results

Noodles, No Nulls and Numb Skulls: Threats to the future of Mendelian...

Few Mendelian Randomisation (MR) papers were published in the first decade of its 20 year history, but since then there has been an exponential increase, whi...

www.youtube.com

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

5 years

Like many I’ve hoped that the observational epidemiological associations suggesting alcohol protected against cardiovascular disease (CVD) were true. Unfortunately, this is not the case, a paper by Iona Millwood, Zhengming Chen, Richard Peto et al shows

Conventional and genetic evidence on alcohol and vascular disease aetiology: a prospective study of...

Genetic epidemiology shows that the apparently protective effects of moderate alcohol intake against stroke are largely non-causal. Alcohol consumption uniformly increases blood pressure and stroke...

www.thelancet.com

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

2 years

Next time round can we please only listen to people who recognize that this was (1) clearly endemic from February 2020 (2) population/herd immunity refers to immunity levels that reduce the severity of illness in those infected, not protection from carriage of the virus

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

4 years

Very informative @jimalkhalili #TheLifeScientific with @neil_ferguson . A thread disputing his conclusion that we face "a trade off between saving lives and saving the economy and jobs". It is so much broader than that ..

The Life Scientific - Neil Ferguson on modelling Covid-19 - BBC Sounds

Predicting the spread of Covid-19. Neil Ferguson talks to Jim Al-Khalili about lockdown.

www.bbc.co.uk

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

4 years

This short paper is worth reading slowly and carefully, at least twice. It is the best single explainer of the basic pattern of covid mortality by age in the UK, and if thought long and hard about will lead to many questions, as all good explanations should

David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

4 years

My BMJ paper on using the idea of ‘normal’/background/actuarial risk to communicate the huge range of risks from COVID-19 experienced by people of different ages

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

4 years

1/n “lives vs economy” is unhelpful, it is not primarily the economy and jobs that are diminished by full or partial lockdowns, rather the almost unimaginable richness of life in all its domains suffers. We are social beings, and a major part of that sociality is stripped from us

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

2 years

Hot air can be damaging to those you love - including if that person is you

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

3 years

There’s no such thing as “progressive nationalism”; there’s no such thing as “progressive border closures”; there’s no such thing as “socialism in one country”. They all lead to misery and xenophobia. Internationalism is the only progressive way to go

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

3 years

The trajectories of “epidemiologists” who made their popular reputations during the pandemic will be interesting

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

4 years

Brilliant article on the notion that viral load at time of infection is a key determinant of clinical course, ending with this inspiring final paragraph on how clinical and population-based epidemiology should work together

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

6 years

A must-read for anyone interested in personalized medicine. Meaningful individual differences in response may be the exception not the norm

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

3 years

Unsurprisingly @MichaelMarmot has been at the forefront of those insisting we see the pandemic through the lens of inequality and inequity. Some more much deserved recognition

The BMJ Awards 2021: Outstanding contribution to health

The recipient of this year’s award is Michael Marmot, professor of epidemiology and public health and author of an influential report on social inequalities, reports Matthew Limb Think back to high...

www.bmj.com

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

2 years

Omicron is illustrating "herd immunity" as how it was introduced: a relative concept, that reduces the adverse outcome of infections within populations, not as an absolute threshold that stopped transmission; as @bmj_latest #covidunknowns webinar explains

Covid unknowns: Population and herd immunity

Introduction• Fiona Godlee, editor in chief of The BMJSession 1: Historical and contemporary context of herd immunity• David Robertson, Princeton University ...

www.youtube.com

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

4 years

Can we have an absolute moratorium on people who have a garden from issuing censorious statements regarding those who don’t have gardens using outdoor spaces (with appropriate physical distancing)? Please ...

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

4 years

"In science, as against careerism or pure mathematics, it is better to be approximately correct and scientifically relevant than it is to be precisely correct but humanly irrelevant"

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

7 years

What excuse do you have for using the term "statistically significant" in 2017? @jonathanasterne on common answers

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

4 years

In 1994 in Edinburgh HJ Eysenck presented his fraudulent “findings” on how a psychological therapy could basically abolish cancer. I said his own data showed what he said could not be true, and his response was not reassuring (At 1.16.35) ../ cont

Hans Eysenck (1994) personality and cancer lecture

Lecture given by Hans Eysenck at Edinburgh University in 1994 on the relationship between personality and cancer.

www.youtube.com

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

5 years

A ludicrous comment - childhood obesity has a larger genetic component than educational performance, but the increase over time in childhood obesity shows how much it can be influenced by the environment. Heritability says little about what interventions could achieve

Charlotte Gill

@CharlotteCGill

5 years

If you scrapped private schools it wouldn't make as much difference as the Left thinks. That's because educational performance has high genetic component, meaning it can only be socially engineered so much. Private schools facilitate genetic potential better than state, that's it

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

4 years

Yet another example of when RCT and Mendelian randomization data triangulate to give a clear answer in an area where conventional naive observational epidemiology has delivered a mass of conflicting and confusing evidence. Viva triangulation!

Robust research needs many lines of evidence

Nature - Replication is not enough. Marcus R. Munafò and George Davey Smith state the case for triangulation.

www.nature.com

Martijn Katan

@martijnkatan

4 years

It’s final: vitamin D does not reduce risk of depression or mood changes. Doctors at Harvard compared vitamin D with placebo in 18 000 people for 5 years, and found no effect. Earlier trials and Mendelian randomization studies also found no effect.

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

3 years

The @guardian has been so utterly appalling in the pandemic: just one example

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

6 months

There is indeed a good reason not to support @guardian It's covid, during which this supposed liberal bastion vigorously supported policies that hugely shifted risk from the wealthy elderly onto working class kids, and amplified the views of fringe self-appointed #zerocvid groups

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

5 years

Richard Peto, a scientist who changed the world, on @jimalkhalili on @BBCRadio4 . Beautifully explains so many issues that health sciences get wrong, and the simple solutions to them

BBC Radio 4 - The Life Scientific, Richard Peto on why smoking kills but quitting saves lives

Epidemiologist Richard Peto on the links between tobacco, disease and early death

www.bbc.co.uk

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

3 years

🤔 both a single episode of natural infection and vaccination give life time protection against reinfection in measles. Covid is probably like other season coronaviruses and gives much shorter protection 🤔 so, erm, no ...

Prof. Devi Sridhar

@devisridhar

3 years

More thoughts out Mon AM but I see this more like measles than flu. A vaccine helps us move towards a measles model. Eliminated largely in rich countries with continual flare-ups requiring outbreak response; continual struggle in poor countries.

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

3 years

"Inequality helped define the pandemic. It is likely to define even more the post-pandemic world. And it will do so because of deliberate “I’m all right, Jack” decisions taken by politicians in the rich world" Great piece on vaccine equity by @kenanmalik

The rich nations’ take on the world post-pandemic? ‘I’m all right, Jack’ | Kenan Malik

Rich nations hoarding vaccines is a foretaste of a bounceback in which the west will use Covid to keep the poor in their place

www.theguardian.com

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

1 year

For anyone who'd like to discuss the strengths and weaknesses of Mendelian randomization I will be doing so @broadinstitute in Boston on 12th May at 3pm Boston time / 8pm UK time in person and online, followed by a reception for those there in person

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

6 years

Want to understand Mendelian randomization but only have 2 minutes? Try Got 5 minutes? Then Want 30 minutes? Here: Or a (working) lifetime? We are always hiring @mrc_ieu

Reading Mendelian randomisation studies: a guide, glossary, and checklist for clinicians

Mendelian randomisation uses genetic variation as a natural experiment to investigate the causal relations between potentially modifiable risk factors and health outcomes in observational data. As...

www.bmj.com

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

3 years

Population SARs-CoV-2 screening only ethical if an intervention follows on from it; this only exists if there is full economic and social support for self-isolation. Spot-on @bmj_latest editorial by @mugecevik @sdbaral Alex Crozier @jackiecassell

Support for self-isolation is critical in covid-19 response

Government action needed now to reduce infections and deaths The resurgence of covid-19 in the autumn of 2020 in many northern countries, including the UK, has been associated with tremendous...

www.bmj.com

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

5 years

For me at least a great discussion (with perfect chairing and participation from the audience) of #bookofwhy with @yudapearl @ucla Now just to get Judea to write more on Mendelian randomization ... No bullet proof vests were required ..

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

4 years

A short thread for the myriad researchers cranking the handle on @uk_biobank COVID data. I am a UKB participant, I am pretty certain I was an early UK COVID case (worst winter sickness I've had, weird loss of taste and before that was noted as a symptom), however I will not ..

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

3 years

There are still many aspects of covid-19 that are inadequately understood. Following the popular day-long "Covid-19: known unknowns" webinar @bmj_latest & @mrc_ieu will be running a series of 6 shorter webinars, the first on covid and schools on 28th Jan

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

4 years

Some great personal news! The distribution of my annual income over the past 40 years looks pretty much like the blue data in the slide below, so I have applied the reliable model used here to project forwards, and I am going to me a multi-billionaire in a few years time 🥂

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

5 years

Important paper on the often ignored issue of barriers to academic careers due to social background (and the more widely - but still too little - discussed issues of gender, ethnicity, sexual orientation, disability and age). A thread 👇

Breaking barriers: The effect of protected characteristics and their intersectionality on career...

In the past decade the scientific community has been trying to tackle the historical underrepresentation of women in science and the fact that gender can constitute a barrier to career success....

www.biorxiv.org

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

3 years

preening self-appointed fear-mongers with limited (usually no) pre-covid expertise in the important scientific domains who have contributed absolutely nothing scientific and have poisoned the public sphere with their bluster, self-promotion and ignorance?

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

3 years

Childhood vaccination - discuss with people who aren't ABSOLUTELY certain about ABSOUTELY everything @bmj_latest @mrc_ieu #CovidUnknowns webinar 9th Sept 4pm with @russellviner @sridhartweet @shamezladhani @adamhfinn @stabellBenn @ParsnipsParsons @fgodlee

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

2 years

A year ago this already seminal paper by Jennie Lavine and colleagues appeared in @ScienceMagazine on the transition of SARS-CoV-2 to endemicity. Sadly, some remain resistant to science & even now prefer unicorns

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

5 years

This cartoon blog by @EpiEllie about a great (short) book on causation is tremendous and orders its insights better than my brain could do when reading the book

What is a cause?

A cartoon causal inference book review

medium.com

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

6 years

Awesome review of genetically informed epidemiological designs for strengthening causal inference - twin studies, Mendelian randomization & hybrid designs - for the novice and experienced practitioner alike. Kudos to @JBPingault Frank Dudbridge and co

Using genetic data to strengthen causal inference in observational research

Nature Reviews Genetics - Various types of observational studies can provide statistical associations between factors, such as between an environmental exposure and a disease state. This Review...

www.nature.com

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

5 months

Why has the proportion of cancers that could be prevented by known means not increased over 40 years? @Lyonpaul Bert Hofman & I suggest it could be that exposures are ubiquitous (a cancer-focused update plus Richard Peto homage)

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

3 years

Progress of epidemics is uncertain. This is seen in tightly standardized epidemics in animal populations. No one is omniscient & getting things wrong is normal. Deleting tweets predicting a massive June peak acts against understanding Embrace being wrong!

Covid-19’s known unknowns

The more certain someone is about covid-19, the less you should trust them In 2019, the medical historian Mark Honigsbaum concluded his book The Pandemic Century by saying: “The only thing that is...

www.bmj.com

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

7 years

On personal crusade to correct every copy of @thetimes misleading alcohol in pregnancy story. Absence of evidence is NOT evidence of absence

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

3 years

Rather than threaten the independence of the JCVI in such an unsubtle way @sajidjavid should register for the @bmj_latest @mrc_ieu "known unknowns" webinar on childhood vaccination 9th Sept 4pm UK time and hear some expert opinion emphasizing uncertainties

Sajid Javid

@sajidjavid

3 years

While we await final advice from the independent experts at the JCVI, I've asked the NHS to be ready to rollout vaccines to 12-15 yr olds. Read my piece on how we continue to build our wall of defence against this virus:

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

10 months

Epidemiologists: if you are *certain* something is true and were vocally campaigning to implement your favoured intervention before your research was conducted, you are unlikely to be an appropriate researcher to work on this issue, and publish it in leading clinical journals

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

3 years

Fascinating and thought-provoking discussion on why there are so few circulating coronaviruses in humans, from the much longer list of potential ones, by Benjamin Rice et al

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

4 years

I am talking (online, sadly but obvs) on “The Fundamental Principles of Mendelian Randomization” @HarvardChanSPH @HarvardEpi on 18th November 2020 at US Eastern time 1.00pm (UK time 6.00pm). Open to all.

Seminars in Epidemiology

Other Department of Epidemiology Events PGSG Spring Seminar Series Schedule ID Epi Spring Seminar Series and Events 2023-2024 Department Seminars This page is a work-in-progress, please check regu…

www.hsph.harvard.edu

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

5 years

Another utterly reliable output from the Ioannidis factory. From my listing I have been publishing papers since 1966 (when I was aged 7) .. it seems not even basic checks are carried out with these searches

Mika Kivimaki

@MikaKivimaki

5 years

Ioannidis et al created an open-access database of 100,000 top scientists. It provides information on citations, h-index etc

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

4 years

Guidelines for conducting Mendelian randomization studies, led by @stevesphd with @nm_davies , Frank Dudbridge, @dpsg108 , @MariaGlymour , Fernando P. Hartwig, Cosetta Minelli, @mvholmes , @carolinerelton , Evropi Theodoratou. Comments welcome (for revisions)

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

4 years

I have an epidemiology joke: nutritional epidemiology

SP Arun

@sparuniisc

4 years

@MenonBioPhysics I have an epidemiology joke but you R0 going to get it.

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

3 years

A survey of immunologists, virologists & infectious disease researchers by @nature of likely covid-19 futures. A clear majority for a different picture to that of the "beautiful dream" of #ZeroCovid Do media reports in the UK reflect this expert view? 🤔

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

7 years

Actually he didn't. The real story is more interesting

chemistry people

@chemistry1952

7 years

English physician John Snow stopped a cholera outbreak in Soho,London on September 08,1854. He is one of the fathers of modern epidemiology.

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

4 years

A fascinating read on how the supposed "good guys" in the nutritional epidemiology field - those fighting valiantly to protect you from dying of eating red meat - game the system and defend their flawed methodology

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

5 years

Most inspiring @BBCRadio4 #TheLifeScientific ever? @Dr_Black on leaving school at 16, single mum, 3 small kids and university at 26, saying yes to doing a PhD when not knowing what one was, saving @bletchleypark & more @jimalkhalili -

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

3 years

Principles of Evidence Based Medicine 2021 style: there is absolutely nothing to be learnt from RCTs if they happen to have got the wrong answer

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

4 years

As clear an answer as can currently be given to the question of how much of the ‘normal’ risk of death does Covid represent? by @d_spiegel

How much ‘normal’ risk does Covid represent?

Every idea needs a Medium

link.medium.com

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

3 years

This 👇 UK also had massive connectivity and much higher early dissemination, the notion London could have been Canberra or Wellington makes no sense, the message we’ll hear that zero covid was possible but the UK’s complicity in the genesis of the Johnson (Delta) variant / cont

Alasdair Munro

@apsmunro

3 years

The UK 🇬🇧 has had a rough pandemic, but our scientific community has given the world: -Best therapeutics RCT (RECOVERY) -Only non-commercial vaccine RCT (Oxford vaccine) -Best real world vaccine effectiveness data (PHE/ONS) -Worlds only mass testing surveillance data (ONS) 1/2

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

3 years

“This pandemic has seen an unprecedented intergenerational transfer of harm and costs from elderly socioeconomically privileged people to disadvantaged children"

Closing schools is not evidence based and harms children

Keeping schools open should be the UK’s top priority Some 8.8 million schoolchildren in the UK have experienced severe disruption to their education, with prolonged school closures and national exams...

www.bmj.com

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

3 years

That @Nature publishes something so scientifically illiterate is shocking. Herd immunity is a description of a biological process, it hasn't got "proponents". It is like saying "proponents of gravity". The editors need Thursday's @bmj_latest webinar/cont

nature

@Nature

3 years

Scientists: don’t feed the doubt machine

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

4 years

Gr8 @EpiEllie “Sick individuals and sick populations” (SISP) a classic; along with his many other writings (including his valedictory book “Strategy of Preventive Medicine”) it should have remade the epidemiological landscape. A thread here on a few interpretive differences

Dr Ellie Murray, ScD

@EpiEllie

4 years

Next up, Sick Individuals and Sick Populations by Geoffrey Rose, 1985. We talked about his paper during this summer’s #epipeopleshealth #epibookclub but I’d never read it. It’s great & (at least from my reading) argues *for* well-defined causal questions

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

1 year

7/7 One final lesson from this sad story: never think "liberal" authoritarians have any interest in what is in the interests of those less privileged than themselves, and make the mistake of confusing them with socialists

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

3 years

Questions worth considering before making sweeping statements about herd immunity: (1) why do the seasonal coronaviruses circulate widely without making many people seriously ill? (2) if we had witnessed their initial introduction into humans would this have been benign? 🤔

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

1 year

From the beginning the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic was not "a trade off between saving lives and saving the economy and jobs". It wasn't "lives versus the economy" it was "lives versus lives". A thread from a time when this was already clear

george davey smith

@mendel_random

4 years

1/n “lives vs economy” is unhelpful, it is not primarily the economy and jobs that are diminished by full or partial lockdowns, rather the almost unimaginable richness of life in all its domains suffers. We are social beings, and a major part of that sociality is stripped from us

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

3 years

Excellent @bmj_latest editorial by epidemiology legend Raj Bhopal & @apsmunro Covid is harming scholarly communication. They play it as it lays: "labelling different interpretations of evidence [by fellow academics] as 'disinformation' is inappropriate"

Scholarly communications harmed by covid-19

Society deserves academic discourse that is civil, cool, unbiased, and objective The covid-19 pandemic has accentuated an erosion in civility in academic discourse, leading to deep divisions being...

www.bmj.com

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

6 years

Home after 1st hip replaced @NorthBristolNHS Whole experience great: cleaners, nurses, porters, junior docs, radiographers, tea service, anaesthetics, admin; even the sawbones was great. I love the NHS & am so thankful we don't have a US-type system. Shame @jeremy_hunt disagrees

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

4 years

A great explainer by ⁦ @ewanbirney ⁩ on what genetics do and don’t inform us about

DNA is not our destiny; it’s just a very useful tool | Ewan Birney

Yes, our genes affect everything we do, from educational attainment to health, but they are only a contributing factor

www.theguardian.com

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

4 years

Clinical trials were born amid the chaos of the late 19th century plague epidemic in India. I'll be giving a virtual seminar on this at 4pm BST tomorrow 7th April (need to scroll down link for access details)

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

5 years

50 years ago Richard Lewontin said it would take a cohort of 300-400,000 to demonstrate human evolution in action That number with genetic data did the job Lewontin wanted a birth cohort, though; we need a 500K Biobank-Junior

Senior Lecture, Annual Short Course on Medical and Experimental Mammalian Genetics, Bar Harbor,...

I tried to find out what my qualifications for this assignment were and then going back over my curriculum vitae, I discovered that I published three paper

academic.oup.com

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

6 years

Just replace "microbiome" with the fad of your choice for the previous "game-changer" which didn't .. erm .. change the game

nature

@Nature

6 years

How strategies to manipulate the microbiome could be game-changing in cancer treatment.

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

5 years

Strange experience receiving a quarter century long service award @BristolUni Didn’t think I’d stay 5 let alone 25 years, but it’s a great city and has been a fantastic journey including @CO90s and @mrc_ieu However the shock has transformed @carolinerelton I’m not sure positively

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

7 years

& Mediterranean diet causes you to smoke less, be of higher social class, have higher IQ 60 years ago .. amazing ..

The BMJ

@bmj_latest

7 years

Older people who followed a Mediterranean diet retained more brain volume over three years @NeurologyToday

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george davey smith

@mendel_random

3 years

@JonMinton I once reviewed a paper @bmj_latest sent me, provided critical comments and suggested additional analyses, and put “I am the lead author of the paper under review” as my COI statement - I got a very cross reply from the journal

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