David Spiegelhalter @d_spiegel Twitter profile

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

4 years

Polite request to PM and others: please stop using my Guardian article to claim we cannot make any international comparisons yet. I refer only to detailed league tables-of course we should now use other countries to try and learn why our numbers are high

Coronavirus deaths: how does Britain compare with other countries? | David Spiegelhalter

It’s tempting to try to construct a league table, but we’ll have to wait months, if not years, for the true picture, says statistician David Spiegelhalter

www.theguardian.com

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

2 years

appalling misleading headline from the Guardian: I said I didn’t take the pandemic ‘seriously enough’, but this is turned into ‘didn’t take Covid seriously’. Unacceptable.

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

4 years

Latest data from ONS 30 mins ago Just drawn this extraordinary, and shocking, graph. Why the massive rise in non-covid deaths? How much is judgement of registering doctor? How much is collateral damage of lockdown???

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

4 years

@JuliaHB1 If you test 1000 people at random, latest ONS figures estimate 1 will have the virus, and let’s assume you find them. But with an FPR of 0.8%, that’s 8/1000, and so you expect to find 8 false positives. That’s 9 positive tests, only one of which has the virus . Hope this is ok

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

4 years

very refreshing to see this perspective expressed without needing abuse of either individuals or the science

Covid: Is it time we learned to live with the virus?

Infections are rising and new restrictions being introduced. But is that the right thing to do?

www.bbc.co.uk

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

4 years

wow, my article just got a plug by CMO Prof Chris Whitty at the press conference!

Coronavirus deaths: how does Britain compare with other countries? | David Spiegelhalter

It’s tempting to try to construct a league table, but we’ll have to wait months, if not years, for the true picture, says statistician David Spiegelhalter

www.theguardian.com

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

4 years

My blog suggesting that getting COVID-19 is, rather remarkably, like packing a year’s worth of risk into a week or two

How much ‘normal’ risk does Covid represent?

An article by Nick Triggle on BBC Online raises the issue of whether many deaths from COVID-19 would have occurred anyway as part of the…

medium.com

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

3 years

my take on why we need to be very careful when interpreting stories about the AZ vaccine and blood clots

There's no proof the Oxford vaccine causes blood clots. So why are people worried? | David Spiege...

It’s human nature to spot patterns in data. But we should be careful about finding causal links where none may exist, says statistician David Spiegelhalter

www.theguardian.com

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

4 years

Diplomatically-worded but strong public rebuke from Chair of UK Stats Authority to Matt Hancock about the test numbers quoted each day - to 'support trustworthiness'

UK Statistics Authority

@UKStatsAuth

4 years

Our Chair has today written to @MattHancock , Secretary of State for Health and Social Care about the Government’s target for COVID-19 testing.

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

4 years

shouldn’t @BBCNews report this, instead of grossly misleading statements like "the UK has hit 10,000 new cases for the first time since mass testing began”

Covid: Things 'bumpy to Christmas and beyond' - PM

Boris Johnson says there is "hope" in fighting the virus, but it could be "a very tough winter".

www.bbc.co.uk

UK COVID-19

@UKCovid19Stats

4 years

Nearly 13K COVID-19 positives reported for the UK yesterday. Technical issues delaying the reporting of data (now resolved) means announcements for the next few days will be inflated to clear the backlog. This chart shows most of yesterdays reported positives by specimen date.

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

3 years

For deaths and admissions, big gap opening up now between over and under 65s. For over 75s, deaths each day have been essentially halving every *week*. Extraordinary.

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

6 years

‘no safe level of alcohol’, but Lancet study means 25,000 light drinkers need annual equivalent of 400,000 bottles of gin for one serious health problem among them each year

The risks of alcohol (again)

A recent paper published by the Lancet demonstrating the global impact of alcohol consumption was a huge exercise from the Gates…

medium.com

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

3 years

Back-of-envelope. If 5 events *were* caused by AZ vaccine, expect 1 event in 2 mil jabs. If 2 mil people in 50s put off their jab by 1 week, expect ~2,000 to get infected, 20-30 seriously ill, 5 to die. So benefit/risk ratio high even for *1* week. But risk goes on in unjabbed!

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

4 years

obviously it could be made clearer, because you have completely misunderstood the point

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

7 years

Daily Mail’s own special way of showing a change from 0.6% to 0.7%

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

4 years

PHE's new definition of Covid deaths leads to massive reduction, but BBC 10 pm News still reports that 18 people ‘died from Covid in the last 24 hour period’. No they didn’t - these are reported deaths. Why can’t the BBC just get this right?

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

2 years

If now no need for confirmatory PCR after asymptomatic + LFD, why is PCR necessary after *symptomatic* + LFD? When chance of false positive is even lower? Genuinely unsure what the logic is.

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

3 years

For some reason this tweet got deleted, and so here it is again for those who missed this wonderful example for teaching percentages

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

2 years

not my usual topic....

I’ve been meeting with the same group of men for 36 years – here’s what they’ve taught me

When I saw a flyer for a ‘men’s group’ in a shop window, I was a young, buttoned-up and newly single father. More than three decades on, the conversations are still changing my life

www.theguardian.com

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

4 years

Back-of-envelope sums: @ONS survey suggests ~ 7% infected in England = ~ 4 million. ~ 40,000 deaths linked to COVID, so very roughly a 1% average mortality rate. Given multiple uncertainties, impressively close to much-disputed 0.9% estimate by Imperial team back in March

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

2 years

If you feel like a chortle over my (lack of) musical taste, listen to me talking to the wonderful @laurenlaverne on DID at 11am tomorrow, Radio 4. Rather rare to have a life’s ambition fulfilled.

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

4 years

In the room yesterday at No 10 was Johnson, Whitty, Valance, and an enormous unmentioned elephant with ‘Centralised Test and Trace’ written on its belly. 6 weeks ago Sage said it was probably having ‘marginal impact’ and it’s been downhill since then

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

4 years

“the most consistent predictor of decreased susceptibility to misinformation about Covid-19 was numerical literacy” - great study (COI, by my colleagues) Data literacy is vital

People with poor numerical literacy 'more susceptible' to Covid-19 'fake news'

Cambridge University study also suggests older people less likely to believe coronavirus misinformation

www.theguardian.com

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

2 years

Isn't there an option missing? Truly awful survey question from Office for Product Safety and Standards at BEIS. But it does provide great material for teaching about manipulative phrasing

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

2 years

To put recent Covid death figures in perspective, note that in Week 3 (ending Jan 21), fewer people were registered as dying due to all respiratory diseases (including Covid) than in the same week in 2015, 2017 and 2018.

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

4 years

@BBCNews 10pm 5th Aug said “On average, in the last week, 58 people have died everyday from coronavirus”. This is grossly misleading - PHE is reporting deaths of people who once tested positive. True number dying with Covid is perhaps 15-25 a day.

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

3 years

Deaths in over-75s have been falling even faster than deaths in under-75s - roughly halving every 15 days.

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

3 years

No medical intervention is 'safe', and balance of benefit to risk is crucial. MRHA has identified 30 serious thrombotic events with low platelets out of 18 million AZ vaccinations so, if causal, average risk of less than 1 in 500,000 is low.

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

3 years

Yes, perhaps a bit harsh. But I’ve had worse referee’s reports.

Anthony B. Masters

@anthonybmasters

3 years

That seems harsh. I thought it was a good article.

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

6 years

shocking that alcohol paper broke Lancet guidelines in only reporting relative risks: needed fine press office to extract absolute risks from them

The risks of alcohol (again)

A recent paper published by the Lancet demonstrating the global impact of alcohol consumption was a huge exercise from the Gates…

medium.com

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

3 years

Declines in admissions and deaths are steeper in older than younger groups. 40% weekly reductions in deaths is very encouraging, to put it mildly

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

4 years

PM says airport test would only pick up 7% of cases, and this means "93% of the time you could have a real false sense of security”. This is hopelessly wrong. Even if 7% were true (evidence?) the vast majority of people will have *correct* negative tests

Coronavirus: Labour demands airport testing review to cut quarantine

Travel rules should be reviewed in light of "dire warnings" from the industry, the opposition says.

www.bbc.co.uk

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

4 years

Blog on fatal risks of Covid to children and younger adults eg women aged 30–34, around 1 in 70,000 died from Covid over peak 9 weeks of epidemic. Over 80% pre-existing medical conditions, so if healthy less than 1 in 350,000, 1/4 of normal accidental risk

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

3 years

Very sad about this news: I learned much of my maths in that pub

Covid-19: Oxford's Lamb & Flag pub to close due to pandemic

The Lamb & Flag, also frequented by CS Lewis and Thomas Hardy, has been "hard hit" by the pandemic.

www.bbc.co.uk

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

4 years

My calculations of risks to the population based on yesterday’s ONS data Extraordinary absolute risk gradient by age. Relatively, Covid risk has been around 50% extra than normal risk for over 45s, much less for under 45s

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

3 years

I have good memories of an enjoyable and lively conversation from rather a long time ago. Not sure of a suitable caption...

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

4 years

Another strong rebuke from @UKStatsAuth to Matt Hancock for the way data on tests is reported: 'The aim seems to be to show the largest possible number of tests, even at the expense of understanding.' Data should help the public understand both the epidemic and testing programme

UK Statistics Authority

@UKStatsAuth

4 years

Sir David Norgrove has today replied to @MattHancock , Secretary of State for Health and Social Care regarding the Government’s COVID-19 testing data

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

4 years

My BMJ paper on using the idea of ‘normal’/background/actuarial risk to communicate the huge range of risks from COVID-19 experienced by people of different ages

Use of “normal” risk to improve understanding of dangers of covid-19

Accumulating data on deaths from covid-19 show an association with age that closely matches the “normal” risk we all face. Explaining risk in this way could help people understand and manage their...

www.bmj.com

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

3 years

*Personal Tweet* Extraordinary feat by part of my family climbing 3 Peaks (Snowdon, Scafell Pike, Ben Nevis) over 6 days last week in bad weather, with 3- and 6-year old grandchildren walking all the way. In aid of a fine charity working in Cameroon -

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

3 years

Completely unacceptable that UKHSA put out absurd statistics showing case-rates higher in vaxxed than non-vaxxed (Fig 2), when just an artefact of using hopelessly biased NIMS popn estimates. Feeding conspiracy theorists worldwide.

COVID-19 vaccine quarterly surveillance reports (September 2021 to April 2024)

Data on the real-world effectiveness and impact of the COVID-19 vaccines.

www.gov.uk

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

4 years

For Nerds. Politicians put up curves showing cumulative counts of covid-19 cases and deaths. Journalists want to know if we are flattening off. They are asking about a third derivative.

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

5 years

This paper motivates the call for the end of significance. A 25% mortality reduction, but because P=0.06 (two-sided), they declare it ‘did not reduce’ mortality. Appalling.

Effect on Septic Shock Mortality of Resuscitation Targeting Peripheral Perfusion vs Serum Lactate...

This randomized trial compares the effects of resuscitation strategies targeting normalization of capillary refill time vs normalization or decrease of serum lactate levels on 28-day mortality among...

jamanetwork.com

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

3 years

Feeling a bit smug having the coolest mask in town #census2021

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

4 years

Our new interactive site displaying wonderful ONS data on all-cause, COVID-19 and excess deaths in England and Wales. Shows that ‘excess’ can be very sensitive to choices

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

3 years

background for the slides used in the briefing yesterday. Brilliant work by @alex_freeman and @HardingProf , and great presentation by JVT

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

4 years

My blog on the COVID risks faced by *population* during the peak of the epidemic (great ONS E+W data) 1 in 1800 died over 5 weeks. Risks doubled if a man, and for each 6–7 years extra age: compared to 20-year-old, an 80-year-old had ~ 500 times risk

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

3 years

COVID deaths within 28 days of +ve test may reach 100,000 today. But ONS data show that over 100,000 people in the UK had died with COVID on death certificate by *Jan 7th*, nearly 3 weeks ago. 108,000 by Jan 15th, and total now will be nearly 120,000

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

4 years

Yesterday PM said things were worse than Reasonable Worst Case Scenario, and yet this RWCS has not been published, just leaked to some media, eg Spectator So much for transparency. Need fixed timetable for releasing Sage docs, not just at whim of No 10

Covid in winter 2020, a worst-case scenario

In pandemics, UK governments plan their response based on an unpublished ‘worst-case scenario’. Below, we are publishing Sage’s classified report for the winter of 2020. It’s intended not as a...

www.spectator.co.uk

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

2 years

Seems a bit harsh, just for being on the BBC (also I stopped being "Prof for Public Understanding of Risk" 2 years ago)

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

2 years

Rather than a queue, The Queue is perhaps better thought of as a pilgrimage, in which the journey is as important as the goal. Yesterday reminded me of walking the Camino to Santiago – dogged continuity made hugely enjoyable by meeting wonderful people who look out for each other

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

4 years

very thoughtful piece on risk-based shielding from Raj Bhopal "No one is advocating “letting the infection rip”, a phrase only heard from the lips of people who do not want this discussed"

COVID-19: open, reasoned, detailed, discussion of the options is overdue and welcome

www.bmj.com

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

2 years

Another day, another awful IHME study published in the Lancet Remember all the confident 'all alcohol harmful' headlines in 2018? Well now they have completely changed their minds. 1/3

No alcohol safe to drink, global study confirms

The researchers say that the health risks of drinking outweigh any possible benefits.

www.bbc.co.uk

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

4 years

Interesting analysis by Chris Hope suggesting countries with fewer recent flu deaths have had higher Covid death rates.

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

3 years

these crochet representations of different R numbers are wonderful - by a professor of biostatistics in Norway

The R number, crocheted.

Kathrine Frey Frøslie works as associate professor in Biostatistics, and runs the popular science knitting blog Statistrikk.no. The crochet work is made for ...

www.youtube.com

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

4 years

excellent blog by the chief stats regulator: “Being trustworthy depends not on conveying an aura of infallibility, but on honesty and transparency.”

Office for Statistics Regulation

@StatsRegulation

4 years

Have we all become armchair epidemiologists? Read the latest blog from Ed Humpherson, DG Regulations

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

2 years

But they call any risk above non-drinkers ‘harmful’, and so say young people should not drink. By this logic, they should not drive, or even get out of bed. No absolute risks provided, which breaks Lancet guidelines and provides no basis for policy recommendations. Awful. 3/3

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

4 years

the 30% extra deaths at home just goes on and on - is this a benefit or a harm?

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

5 years

Great news that Brad Efron has won the 2019 International Statistics Prize for the 1977 bootstrap idea - so simple and yet so powerful

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

3 years

excellent opportunity to see the staggeringly linear relationship between log-death rates and age! Meaning risks increase exponentially between 5 and 95, doubling for each 5-6 years older

Pouria Hadjibagheri

@Pouriaaa

3 years

We have just released a number of new features on the #UKCovdi19 Dashboard (🧵) 1. We now have an option to view graphs in logarithmic scale - I know some of you really wanted this! Feedback are welcome. Many thanks to @statsgeekclare and @DaveJephson for the QA. 1/🧵

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

2 years

Did this a while ago - but interesting to apply to Covid. There’s a lot of hedgehogs around …

BBC Ideas💡

@bbcideas

2 years

When it comes to risk, are you a hedgehog or a fox? Here's statistician @d_spiegel to help you decide…

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

4 years

How have Covid-19 fatalities compared with other causes of death? For each age-band, compares with ‘normal’ flu and accidents. Extraordinary gradient with age.

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

4 years

Modelling excellent data from @ONS on COVID deaths in March Clear pattern: men have double the risk of women the same age, and death rates around 11% higher for each year older, ie they double for every 7 years older.

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

3 years

Awful misleading BBC News headline y'day “highest number of deaths recorded in a single day since the pandemic began” implying 1,610 died in last 24 hrs. But Tuesday’s *reported* deaths always high: truth probably nearer to 1,000 (which is high enough) 1/2

BBC News - BBC News at Six, 19/01/2021

The latest national and international news from the BBC.

www.bbc.co.uk

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

3 years

what a great demonstration of the need for @Nat_Numeracy !! I hope every maths class is using this in their lessons today. Remember, this man has 144K Twitter followers...

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

4 years

My new blog on whether Covid raises everyone’s relative risk of dying by a similar amount. Latest ONS data shows that, of recent death registrations, the proportion linked to Covid does not depend on age.

Does Covid raise everyone’s relative risk of dying by a similar amount? More evidence.

In a popular blog published on March 21st (which seems a lifetime ago), I argued that the estimated mortality rate of people whilst…

medium.com

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

3 years

Very detailed slide pack from PHE and NHS Test and Trace with reasons for every Tier decision But it doesn’t seem to turn up on a Google search! Need a good website with all this info there

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

5 years

BBC: "Grant Shapps confirms repatriation of Thomas Cook customers...will cost taxpayer around £100m. He tells BBC's Today: "We know that the Monarch rescue was about £50m. We know that this is about 50% bigger.” " I suggest a @Nat_Numeracy course

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

1 year

@IsabelOakeshott says Covid was “a disease with a low mortality rate among all but the very elderly”. Around 1% of men my age (66) who caught it in 1st wave died. This is about the risk of coronary bypass graft surgery, 1,000 parachute jumps, or 70,000 miles on a motorbike.

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

3 years

The Art of Statistics is the 99p Kindle Deal of the Day, today! Why not get two?

The Art of Statistics: Learning from Data (Pelican Books)

The Art of Statistics: Learning from Data (Pelican Books) eBook : Spiegelhalter, David: Amazon.co.uk: Books

www.amazon.co.uk

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

3 years

‘Obscure’?!! Some of us have spent much of our working lives exploring Bayes theorem. (Great article - I suspect this is the sub-editor’s rather than Tom’s label)

Sean Mulvany

@seanmulvany

3 years

Longform from @TomChivers in @guardianscience today. How to make sense of the accuracy and reliability of a diagnostic or a diagnosis, from #Covid to cancer. Answer: with Bayesian thinking. @d_spiegel

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

3 years

In the 10 days up to feb 6th, deaths were falling at twice the rate in over-85s compared to under-65s. This is good news. [sorry, just put up yesterday’s graph!]

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

2 years

Just to show I was not exaggerating on @DesIsDiscs , here is my Dad doing some escaping: note the 1950s Health and Safety comprising a man with a bucket of water

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

3 years

Just finished this Christmas beast of a jigsaw. Grey, gloomy and very difficult. But got to the end eventually. There’s a contemporary lesson there somewhere...

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

4 years

Please give us the margins of error on the exit poll!!!

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

5 years

extraordinary and brilliant blog by BBC Data Visualisation team on using R and ggplot

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

7 years

How dangerous is burnt toast? Some thoughts on acrylamide campaign

How dangerous is burnt toast?

The Food Standards Agency (FSA) today launched its Go for Gold campaign, encouraging us not to burn our roast or fried vegetables and keep…

medium.com

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

5 years

How to communicate uncertainty about facts, numbers, science? We have a new paper out @RSocPublishing @alex_freeman @Sander_vdLinden @nuffieldfound

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

7 years

Just about all I can say about risk and uncertainty communication

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@d_spiegel

3 years

Oh dear, Sky headline gets the denominator wrong: it’s 0.005% of infected children, not of Covid deaths. Is this the most common statistical error?!

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

3 years

Well let’s see how this goes down in Germany, France, Austria, Poland, Sweden, Denmark, the Netherlands and Spain, who are all currently denying their older citizens this protection

Chris Smyth

@Smyth_Chris

3 years

Significant move from @WHO - they are following Britain in recommending the Oxford AZ vaccine be given 8-12 weeks apart, saying a longer gap "associated with greater vaccine efficacy" and will reach more people. And recommend for over 65s too

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

3 years

For time of year, total and excess deaths are without recent precedent. But deaths without Covid as primary cause are at lowest level for 10 years. Minimal flu, and some brought forward by first-wave?

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

4 years

I wish the daily press conferences featured this graph from NHS England - clear peak 2 weeks ago on April 8, and slow steady improvement

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

2 years

Let’s look at this claim again. ONS now says 221 Covid deaths on 11th January, 77% ‘caused’ by Covid that week, so that’s ~ 170. Less than half 379. So this claim was untrue (which was clear at the time). But it got 3K retweets.

Trisha Greenhalgh

@trishgreenhalgh

2 years

Two years ago, could you have imagined a pandemic causing 379 deaths in a single day (UK), with politicians insisting the disease was “mild” and nobody in the media reporting it?

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

3 years

Isn’t there an essential mismatch in policy now? Opening up by relaxing measures, and yet (predictably) causing massive disruption to economy and families by telling millions each week to self-isolate. And to what benefit?

Summer chaos predicted as up to 1.6m in England told to isolate in a week

Government says its Covid app is unlikely to be adjusted to make it less sensitive for weeks

www.theguardian.com

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@d_spiegel

2 years

I am so sad about this. David was a hero to statistics in general, and me in particular. He took me apart, in the nicest possible way, in my PhD Viva 43 years ago, probably after skimming it on the train. 1/

Stian Westlake

@stianwestlake

2 years

We're deeply saddened to learn of the death of Sir David Cox, a giant of statistics and a dear friend, supporter, and past president of the RSS.

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

5 years

never thought I would see statistics (briefly) topping Robert Macfarlane at Foyles

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

2 years

Big piece finally installed! Designed by my friend for Norfolk Broads house, reflecting her view of the reeds. Made in three panels, but with rather nice flow between them. Small picture shows the wonderful green/brown glass better. Other work here

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

4 years

Blog by Sebastian Walsh on asking the right questions "Furthermore, it has never been “safe” to attend school. In the 2017-18 flu season, in which (unlike now) children were super-spreaders, 16 school children died. Were schools safe then? "

Sebastian Walsh: We are asking the wrong questions about easing lockdown - The BMJ

“Is it safe to re-open schools?” “How can it be safe to re-open car show rooms when it’s not safe for me to see my family?” Questions like these have [...]More...

blogs.bmj.com

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

4 years

My Observer article on excess deaths, R etc. Tree below shows where the ‘2%’ in the final bit comes from: 18/ (18+931).

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

2 years

@profhelenward @chrischirp Perhaps one reason this claim is not heading the news is because it isn’t true

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

3 years

Vaulable statement from OSR "where models are referred to publicly, particularly to inform significant policy decisions, the model outputs, methodologies and key assumptions should be published at the same time" (COI: I am a non-exec on the UKSA board)

Office for Statistics Regulation

@StatsRegulation

3 years

Today we have released a statement on use of data by governments across the UK as part of their communications on the Covid-19 pandemic.

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

4 years

Bayes hits the New York Times! - with me on Cromwell’s Law and modelling with humility

How to Think Like an Epidemiologist (Published 2020)

Don’t worry, a little Bayesian analysis won’t hurt you.

www.nytimes.com

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

2 years

@trishgreenhalgh sorry, this is not true. These are ‘reported’ deaths, always high on Tuesdays, it was 77 the day before. True count of deaths caused will be less than half 379 (still high, of course). Politely suggest deleting tweet to slow spread of misinformation

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

3 years

Latest PHE data: Out of 257 Delta deaths, 118 (46%) fully vaxxed, 92 (36%) unvaxxed. What we would expect with high coverage by very effective – but not perfect – vaccine.

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

3 years

my (inevitably doomed) attempt to explain everything about excess deaths in 330 words. First of a series

Behind the numbers: how to make sense of ‘excess’ deaths | David Spiegelhalter

In the first of a new series, the leading Cambridge professor measures Covid-19’s impact

www.theguardian.com

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

4 years

my latest rant in support of stats. NB as usual, I don’t write the headline (also, spot the Blackadder rip-off)

When politicians cite Covid-19 statistics, they may be wrong – it doesn't mean the numbers are |...

Statisticians would welcome an inquiry into their role in this crisis, says David Spiegelhalter

www.theguardian.com

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

2 years

In which my opinions about epidemiologists giving public health advice get reported...

Leading Academics: "Stop Epidemiologists From Giving Public Health Advice"

Top researchers at the world's leading universities say most epidemiologists haven't got the proper background to give public health advice

investigativenews.substack.com

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

4 years

Tweet below is for mass testing. Very different if test 1000 people *with symptoms*. then from PHE data expect 40-50 covid, detect say 30-40. So most positive tests are correct. The current rise is real.

David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

4 years

@JuliaHB1 If you test 1000 people at random, latest ONS figures estimate 1 will have the virus, and let’s assume you find them. But with an FPR of 0.8%, that’s 8/1000, and so you expect to find 8 false positives. That’s 9 positive tests, only one of which has the virus . Hope this is ok

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

3 years

Our attempt at summarising Bayes theorem in words: "If you pick what looks like a needle from a haystack, then your confidence that it really is a needle depends on how many are in the haystack in the first place."

Anthony B. Masters

@anthonybmasters

3 years

Today, @d_spiegel and I write about rapid testing in schools. 1️⃣ Test stats can be confusing. 2️⃣ The false-positive rate is not the probability a positive test is false. 3️⃣ Looking for needles in haystacks, your confidence depends on the number of needles.

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David Spiegelhalter

@d_spiegel

4 years

Lots of talk about a 'peak', but this term can give a misleading impression of an obvious maximum. Reporting practices mean highly volatile daily counts, and underlying shape is more a rounded hill than a peaked mountain: look at Italy’s reports over last 2 weeks

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