JT @lokoyacap Twitter profile

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JT

@lokoyacap

8 months

@TheStalwart I wonder what these cities have in common?

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@lokoyacap

3 months

These $nvda headlines really lack anything of substance, but the real ‘news’ here is what’s actually unsaid but implied. Which is that just in the last several weeks, the three smartest semi CEOs on planet earth are de facto screaming that the ~$10B DC custom silicon market is

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@lokoyacap

2 years

@ExitMultiple I think you meant?

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JT

@lokoyacap

3 months

*META NAMES HOCK TAN AND JOHN ARNOLD TO BOARD Another genius Zuck move. Dude is en fuego right now.

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@lokoyacap

1 year

@UnrivaledInvest This is a placeholder shelf and identical to what they did off the last print. It literally means zero

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JT

@lokoyacap

8 months

@TheStalwart Only ppl who never been to/near any of these stores would even entertain a delusion that it's not about theft.

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JT

@lokoyacap

8 months

If Yipit is so accurate, why would they sell the data externally?

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JT

@lokoyacap

4 months

You were warned on fading semicap post $tsm. $asml blowout Q4 bookings. These orders feed into 2025, not 2024, but that was always the bull case on semicap and $asml is already saying 2H up h/h. Which foots exactly with the previous pt made re: $tsm capex about to take an

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@lokoyacap

1 month

Guess there's a first time for everything. $asml coming THIS close to naming a customer basically happened this morning. Kind of an amazing CC. TLDR $tsm is haggling over a massive EUV order, which is prob reasonable considering the size of it. Ultimately this is all timing.

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JT

@lokoyacap

6 months

Hynix raising capex. SMIC raising capex. $tsm printing all-time high monthly revs for Oct 👀

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JT

@lokoyacap

4 months

So $tsm Q4'23 capex was $5.2B, and they are guiding FY24 to ~$30B. Even though this is 'flat' y/y, $30B/year is ~$7.5B/qtr, which means a VERY large qtrly step-up in spending is imminent. Yes, the qtrs can flop around but the trend here is clear. On top of this, mid 30s capex

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JT

@lokoyacap

6 months

DRAM and NAND spot continue to make YTD highs. Enjoy your holiday wknd

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JT

@lokoyacap

3 months

Best I can tell, this $panw is a lot more benign than it looks and basically a delayed/‘lite’ version of $ftnt from last Fall. Ie every firewall up cycle eventually is followed by a down cycle. And mgmt knows this and wants to scale the Subscription biz as fast as is feasible to

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JT

@lokoyacap

1 month

If you half believe any of these $mrvl slides, it's prob net more bullish $avgo than $mrvl

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JT

@lokoyacap

2 months

I get the first (panic) move in semis is to sell a natural disaster, but when cooler heads prevail they’ll realize supply disruptions only have one effect on pricing and it ain’t down. This has happened many times before. Act accordingly.

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JT

@lokoyacap

9 months

BASED: "Chief Executive Officer Andy Jassy told employees who refuse to comply with his return-to-office mandate that “it’s probably not going to work out for you” $amzn

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JT

@lokoyacap

1 year

Not to be too dramatic, but I hope ppl can appreciate what $nvda, $avgo and $tsm are being asked to do. This is not $2 widgets into an iPhone. These are high volume ramps of leading edge networking/compute silicon into by far the most sophisticated buyers in the world. Very hard

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JT

@lokoyacap

1 year

Hock Tan is a beast:

Apple announces multibillion-dollar deal with Broadcom

Today Apple announced a multiyear, multibillion-dollar agreement with Broadcom, a leading U.S. manufacturing and technology company.

www.apple.com

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JT

@lokoyacap

11 months

Your regular reminder than chips are hard (like really, really hard):

How Meta Stumbled In Quest for Chip Independence

Meta Platforms executives always knew this moment would come. Apple’s unveiling of its Vision Pro mixed reality headset early this month puts the spotlight on the looming battle between Apple and...

www.theinformation.com

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JT

@lokoyacap

1 year

@TheStalwart Jensen is the best. Never worked for him but was friendly, accessible and courteous every time I’ve met w him. Literally zero arrogance. Amazing person

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@lokoyacap

1 month

Props to $mrvl for the incremental hyperscale wins. This is really hard stuff that takes literally yrs of engineering effort. But my pt yesterday was this mostly re-highlights how herculean the $avgo/$googl TPU effort was for it to ALREADY be at a several billion $ run-rate right

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JT

@lokoyacap

14 days

Absent a complete disaster, I still maintain that MI300 is a sideshow for $amd right now. Until $xlnx turns, $amd cannot beat estimates given its contribution to total OP, relegating it to meme/retail stock territory. Fortunately, $xlnx is likely to turn in 2H given it’s

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JT

@lokoyacap

8 months

I'll repeat what I said a few days ago. Literally every back-end/TW check I can find suggests everything $nvda-related is going one way, and it ain't down. That Jensen & team are competent shouldn't be super surprising at this pt

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JT

@lokoyacap

8 months

DRAM and NAND pricing continue to break out...Samsung openly raising NAND pricing...$wdc 52 week high...2024 DRAM WFE estimates being raised for the first time in months...

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@lokoyacap

10 months

I've covered $nxpi for a long time but this is maybe the best execution I've seen from them ever, even more so in a choppy environment. Still amazed and how bad ppl want auto semis to implode

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JT

@lokoyacap

1 year

@ankurnagpal Honest q. Why would I want/trust one of the more aggressive tax collecting entities in the world to also make sure I get every deduction/credit possible when I can do so for barely $99 to a 3rd party?

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JT

@lokoyacap

1 year

@BucknSF It’s actually a Corp Dev work of art honestly since they can’t buy it outright

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JT

@lokoyacap

8 months

Not to kick a hornet's nest, but when I really think about it, other than (almost insane levels) of very short-term investor expectations (which of course can and does affect ST price action), not sure there really has been any 'fundamental' weakness in AI demand and the related

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JT

@lokoyacap

6 months

Your friendly reminder that memory spot continues to rip, with NAND continuing its parabolic move up.

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@lokoyacap

3 months

@_fabknowledge_ Yes. $lrcx has said many many times over the years that 90%+ of chambers they’ve ever shipped are still in use. Which is kinda badass actually

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JT

@lokoyacap

1 year

@conorsen Schadenfreude is fine but this has to do with literally tens of thousands of ppl who might not get paid next week. Maybe some sympathy is in order for people in that situation who did nothing wrong. $sivb’s equity is zero’d. isn’t that enough?

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JT

@lokoyacap

1 year

@londoncap100 Totally up to you, but I'd begin with the analog names give how messy and Asia-focused memory is. I'd start by "living" through a cycle, i.e. read every $mchp transcript from early 2018 through the end of 2019 and trace how the P&L evolves over that time period

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@lokoyacap

9 months

@Swordfishv44183 @ChipsSaas This is completely wrong. All of the semis you listed report geo exposure by location of production, not consumption. Your numbers are off by multiples and would be more obviously so if you included the appropriate disclosure for their respective filings

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JT

@lokoyacap

2 years

Hat tip to @BucknSF who I think hypothesized an activist in $crm a few weeks back

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JT

@lokoyacap

10 months

$tsm based: "Each quarter, TSMC sends an email to everyone in the entire company, shaming employees who have violated cybersecurity, secrecy and other rules."

World’s Largest Chip Maker Rethinks Security, Responding to Pressures on Hiring

HSINCHU, Taiwan—For decades, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world’s largest chip manufacturer, has been notorious for its extreme culture of secrecy and security, designed to both...

www.theinformation.com

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JT

@lokoyacap

4 months

@Citrini7 Kinda honest actually

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JT

@lokoyacap

8 months

@LouMannheim87 @TheStalwart Ok but they aren’t allowed to call attention to stores being destroyed by burglary? Or the stores are doing fine but they are lying about it? Honest q

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JT

@lokoyacap

1 month

We can talk about CPI/inflation all day sure, but you might want to check out the largest merchant foundry in the world smoking Q1 revs

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JT

@lokoyacap

2 months

$nvda is an amazing co but nothing happened at GTC that we didn't already know, mostly bc they are (rightfully) gigantic with a massive global supply chain and hundreds of pundits trying to ferret out small nuggets, making it literally impossible to surprise. Even more so bc

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JT

@lokoyacap

8 months

UBS notes overnight re: memory good example, but from where I sit, ex analog, semis demand in every end mkt continues to improve (to varying degrees): memory, PCs, non-AI servers, smartphone, core AI still upticking, etc. All ears if anyone seeing differently Cc @_fabknowledge_

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JT

@lokoyacap

9 months

@TheStalwart Uh there’s a lot more to GPT than a GUI

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JT

@lokoyacap

1 year

Savage headshot by $lrcx at MS TMT today ending this silly "AMAT has a magical tool that halves EUV" episode. I'll let you dig out the quote but it's a doozy.

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JT

@lokoyacap

4 months

$SMCI blowout pos pre. Prob not a bad read on $nvda 😉

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JT

@lokoyacap

7 months

@bucketshopcap I think this is a bit harsh but I understand why you think that. It’s tangential, but personally think the greater tragedy has been the mutation of sell side research (ex-Bernstein) from reasonably ‘research’/fundamentals-oriented towards previews/whispers/‘chatter’/calling

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JT

@lokoyacap

8 months

$tsm just smoked Q3 revs relative to typical Digitimes hysteria. Nothing to see here tho bc rates/jobs/macro/etc. right? cc @_fabknowledge_

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JT

@lokoyacap

8 months

In case you're wondering if there is any contrition or intellectual honesty left at The Information, this is the twaddle they are spamming subs w today: "It’s always an interesting experience to see our reporting moving markets—the real-world impact of journalism cannot be

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JT

@lokoyacap

10 months

*FTC LOSES APPEALS COURT BID TO PAUSE MICROSOFT-ACTIVISION DEAL FTC cred:

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JT

@lokoyacap

1 year

I’m as bullish semis as anyone but I can’t figure out $amd’s 2H DC guide

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JT

@lokoyacap

2 years

@willis_cap @lfg_cap Fwiw everyone forgets the legendary stories of them doing a version of this, the stock getting smoked and then employees seeing Ballmer and Gates literally doing high fives as new exec options got struck lower and buyback went brrrr

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JT

@lokoyacap

8 months

Post $mu, reminder of $lrcx CFO on 8/30 at DB: "I think the things, if you're on -- your side of the table, you need to be paying attention to is, listen to everybody on their earnings call talking about how much inventory there is. Pay attention to where memory pricing is

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JT

@lokoyacap

6 months

As a reminder, H100 demand remains almost comically above supply so even at these elevated levels revenue is still understated

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JT

@lokoyacap

1 year

So if $avgo’s AI Networking business is going to grow 80%yy in ~CY24, what will $nvda’s DC biz grow in CY24? 🧐

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JT

@lokoyacap

8 months

Ok so they might replace their TPU vendor or they might not. They might consider doing it in-house. Or they might consider another supplier. Basically anything could happen. Sounds like every Systems vendor ever. This is what passes for news?

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@lokoyacap

6 months

Best I can tell, this $amat stuff is both very old news (see the subpeona disclosure in the Dec'22 10K) and related to very old shipments (from 2021 and 2022). All of this was confirmed by Reuters this morning. I know given it was a big red headline on bberg 4 min before EPS and

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JT

@lokoyacap

9 months

@packyM I’ll never stop telling almost everyone I know that EUV is one of the greatest technical achievements of the last few decades. Incredible accomplishment against many, many years of doubting. Amazing

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JT

@lokoyacap

4 months

For as good as this $SMCI Dec is, the Mar guide is comically lowballed

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JT

@lokoyacap

1 year

@TheTranscript_ This is simply not true. There are literally dozens of semi fabs domestically, many in analog, and there is no data whatsoever indicating they have more frequent/severe outages than those in Asia.

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JT

@lokoyacap

1 month

$tsm last night: "N2 is on track for volume production in 2025 with a ramp profile similar to N3." 🧐 So the $asml freak out yesterday was in fact overdone. Color me surprised

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JT

@lokoyacap

1 year

As discussed in prev thread, $panw to the S&P 500. Very, very well deserved. I get it’s just an index, but we’ve come a long way from “Nikesh doesn’t know anything about security” to this. Bravo

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JT

@lokoyacap

10 months

So it seems the hyperscalers are in fact not dumb and are spending on stuff that (surprise!) can generate a significant return. Maybe A100/H100 is in fact underpriced? $msft $nvda

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JT

@lokoyacap

10 months

Ppl do realize that $msft’s “back half” ramp in AI revs causing hand wringing is literally the Mar/Jun’24 qtrs right (bc they are a Jun FYE)? Ppl acting like they guided for yrs to ramp but it’s barely a few months. Take a chill pill

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@lokoyacap

1 month

"Palladium is the only appliance that's more important to me than the refrigerator," Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang said at an event in Santa Clara, California, announcing the new Cadence systems. "It is the single most important appliance in my life. We are the largest

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JT

@lokoyacap

7 months

fwiw $cdns Bookings significantly reaccelerating

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JT

@lokoyacap

8 months

@heartbreakout As usual, these come only after a major pullback. None of this is wrong per se, but it’s limited value at this point since it already happened/is consensus

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JT

@lokoyacap

11 months

Is there a scenario that $adbe now actually benefits from Figma being blocked given, while very early, a very credible AI game plan? Ie that lg amt of capital can be reallocated cc @InnocenceCapit1 @BucknSF

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@lokoyacap

5 months

@52wCapital Like a crowded long into eps, the goal is simply not to blow up. That alone is a huge win

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@lokoyacap

7 months

$intc is really executing well right now. Been a long, long time since one could say that.

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@lokoyacap

10 months

It won't matter since $txn will continue to be a low beta $smh, but I don't really understand the strategy here anymore. Inventory blowing out, losing share for yrs at this pt, much higher exposure to CE than most ppl realize and about to go into a massive capex cycle 😬

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@lokoyacap

2 years

@eisingerj “Secret trove of IRS data” almost by definition sounds illegally obtained

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JT

@lokoyacap

20 days

So $SMCI had cooling-related component constraints impact revs, which is hardly crazy given what’s going on in the industry right now. You’d have thought they clubbed a baby seal from the reactions AH. I’m indifferent to the stock but let’s try to actually analyze things here

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@lokoyacap

10 months

@_fabknowledge_ This thing better cure cancer bc at this pt it’s more hyped than anything $nvda has ever released

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@lokoyacap

6 months

@netcapgirl Already in process: "Altman and OpenAI had been working with Microsoft to refine and test the Maia AI chip."

Microsoft hires former OpenAI CEO Sam Altman

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella was key in OpenAI talks.

www.theverge.com

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@lokoyacap

1 year

@buccocapital @BreakingSaaS So basically these businesses are even more profitable than we all thought

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@lokoyacap

8 months

@viggy_krishnan @RobEducated This might be a world record in terms of speed of self-own in tech media: *GOOGLE SAYS IT SEES "NO CHANGE" IN BROADCOM CHIP RELATIONSHIP

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@lokoyacap

10 months

WFE bear headshot. HBM FTW! (gracias $lrcx)

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JT

@lokoyacap

7 months

Sorry to beat a dead horse but memory spot continues to rip and neither dram nor Nand has had a down day in over a month 🤷

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JT

@lokoyacap

3 months

As discussed many times, there are no advanced fabs w/o $tsm regardless of how much capital you have: “In talks with TSMC, Altman has said he wants to build dozens of chip-fabrication plants in the next few years, the people said. His vision would be to raise the money

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JT

@lokoyacap

1 year

Re: $crm per FT 👀 "According to one person familiar with the company, both musician and actor Matthew McConaughey are frequently involved in strategy discussions at the company" cc: @BucknSF @InnocenceCapit1

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@lokoyacap

8 months

@netcapgirl Chin up. We all have the Mondays on certain days

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@lokoyacap

3 months

Everything in this tweet is 🎯

Fan of Moore and Morris

@MooreMorrisFan

3 months

WFE Outlook 1) China WFE is not crashing 2) TSMC revenue will grow through 2025 (capital intensity is flat = higher capex) 3) HBM die size is double that of DRAM. Higher EUV layers at 1b 4) AI smartphone and PC -> Higher logic and memory content 5) GAA, BPD, HB from 2025 to 2027

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JT

@lokoyacap

1 year

You can love or hate $nvda but bizarre to me to see everyone citing backward-looking metrics. Isn't rule 1 that stocks look forward?

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JT

@lokoyacap

10 months

@ChairliftCap Karl Keirstead has entered the chat

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JT

@lokoyacap

1 year

So $nvda will do ~$8.0-8.5B of DC revs in Jul (+100%qq) and the world is still severely short GPUs. Even OpenAI can't get even close to enough. Do with that whatever you like.

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JT

@lokoyacap

1 year

Ohana officially dead. What a cluster. Cc @BucknSF

Salesforce co-CEO Marc Benioff dodged questions in a rambling, 2-hour all-hands. Leaked messages...

One executive apologized and told those who hadn't seen the all-hands meeting to not bother watching, according to one person present.

www.businessinsider.com

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JT

@lokoyacap

9 months

@TihoBrkan No they haven't gone mad w SBC. They issued $6.3B of stock in the Mailchimp deal which closed on 11/1/2021, which is almost exactly where the purple line inflects upward.

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JT

@lokoyacap

10 months

@ChairliftCap Don't forget the cinco de mayo cantina dial in

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JT

@lokoyacap

6 months

Like a broken record, memory spot continues to rip. DRAM now starting to join the party

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JT

@lokoyacap

7 months

@_fabknowledge_ Industrial had to correct eventually. SiC was offsetting this for a while

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@lokoyacap

11 months

Not sure why ppl dumped on the $acn $100mm AI #. That's a $300mm run-rate, growing (likely) ripping exiting CY23 and wouldn't surprise me if that exits CY24 at $1B+ growing at some healthy rate (50%+). Amidst a lot of smoke/bs out there, that's real $.

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@lokoyacap

11 months

Is it me or is (almost) every semis datapt in TW upticking? PCs, China SPs, panels, obviously AI, DC, etc.

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@lokoyacap

11 months

@_fabknowledge_ Honest q. Unless they outright ban any chip sales into CN, why doesn’t $nvda just now de-spec A800 to the now lower performance ceiling and then China continues literally buying everything they can?

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@lokoyacap

6 months

Hock Tan wins again

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JT

@lokoyacap

8 months

I'm bullish AI but dude WTF: "OpenAI reportedly in talks to sell existing shares to investors at $80B-90B valuation"

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JT

@lokoyacap

1 year

@BucknSF Of all the fintwit pile-ons YTD on SW, personally think the derision on structural profitability of the space ("I tHoUght SOftwARE cOuLD pRoDuCe HiGh maRGINs") has been the silliest.

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@lokoyacap

8 months

YTD low in Fear & Greed Index FWIW. 17 is within a pt of the Fall'22 low of 16

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@lokoyacap

3 months

Hock/$avgo wins big again but we’ll leave that story for another day Cc @Srasgon @FoolAllTheTime @dylan522p

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@lokoyacap

8 months

@RobEducated Or it could be completely wrong. The media has had egg on its face repeatedly in similar situations. Some as recently as May going crazy that $avgo about to lose WiFi/BT in iPhone literally weeks before a (rare) $aapl PR signing a giant multi-yr extension w $avgo

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@lokoyacap

11 months

@therealjunto You're leaving out Ed Thorp, but he did the same, which reinforces your point

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@lokoyacap

9 months

It’s a long, long way from mattering but strongly encourage ppl to find a way to talk to someone who’s actually used an $aapl Vision Pro. TLDR It’s absurdly good. The UI efficacy is bonkers.

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@lokoyacap

1 year

@corry_wang That's kinda bullish mainframe sw, no? A 0.0% CAGR since 2000 is tens of thousands of bps better than most technologies prevalent back then (VHS tapes, Camcorders, etc.)

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