Jerome Drevon @jeromedrev Twitter profile

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Jerome Drevon

1 month

I've just finished the final revisions of my book on the Syrian conflict. This book answers two key questions: Why have Jihadis, or groups overlapping with them, dominate the conflict? Second, why have some Jihadi groups rejected global jihad and adopted a more pragmatic approach…

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

2 years

My first book on Egypt will finally be published in a few week! It is a comparative study of the two historical jihadi groups in Egypt, al-Jama‘a al-Islamiyya and Islamic Jihad, that yields importance lessons beyond Egypt. Why is it important? (1)

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

9 months

Obviously it’s too early to draw lessons on the ongoing events in Gaza, but there are already some important things to consider @CrisisGroup

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

3 years

After two years as advisor for non state armed groups @icrc I am thrilled to join @CrisisGroup as senior analyst on Jihad and Modern Conflict. Don't hesitate to reach out!

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

3 years

Crisis group ( @CrisisGroup ) has just published an encompassing overview of how other Islamist militants perceive the Taliban’s victory in Afghanistan, including Syria, Yemen, Somalia, the Sahel, Lake Chad, and the Philippines.

How Islamist Militants Elsewhere View the Taliban’s Victory in Afghanistan | Crisis Group

While Islamist insurgents around the world are inspired by the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan, the question of whether and how they will benefit as a result is more complicated, as Crisis...

www.crisisgroup.org

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

2 years

Zawahiri’s death is clearly an important turning point for AQ, since nobody else has a sufficient public stature to replace him. The killing also raises important questions. A thread @CrisisGroup

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

9 months

@CrisisGroup (1) this must have taken months to prepare to coordinate land / air / sea forces in a coordinated matter, each with clear tactical objectives and preparedness. It’s can’t be just a short term response to recent developments including Saudi Israeli normalisation

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

3 years

New book on the salafi movement edited by @masooda_bano with contributions from @hazimfouad @drusaama @guyeyre @neil_najr01 @kdiwaniya @AbdullahKhaledS @ToreRHamming @bilalshobaki and myself

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

9 months

@CrisisGroup (2) it is a massive intelligence failure for Israel, not even remotely comparable to the 2006 inability to predict Hizbullah’s attack in the North. It will have domestic consequences

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

9 months

@CrisisGroup (5) the long term background of these events is the situation in Gaza, which has been under siege since 2006. Remember that many of today’s participants were probably toddlers or young kids when the siege started.

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

2 years

we published a new article with @patrickhaenni on HTS’s evolution, and what it means for our understanding of global jihad. It is based on the extensive field research with the group’s leadership in Idlib

Redefining Global Jihad and Its Termination: The Subjugation of al-Qaeda by Its Former Franchise in...

The globalization of jihad has proceeded in several stages from the mobilization against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan in the 1980s to Islamic State’s current campaign. The end of global jihad is...

www.tandfonline.com

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

9 months

@CrisisGroup (3) this occurs 50 years after the 1973 war, which can’t be a coincidence. And the objectives of the war at the time was not to for Egypt to win militarily, but to change the regional equation by showing that the status quo was not sustainable

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

9 months

@CrisisGroup (8) what is certain is that this very much looks like a game-changing day

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

9 months

@CrisisGroup (7) but this is also a bet, which can easily result in a pyrrhic victory, with Israel launching an assault like never before, with no external actor willing or able to contain, and whose consequences are unpredictable

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

9 months

@CrisisGroup (6) so what is Hamas looking for? It is possible that Hamas is telling the world that the previous rounds of fightings, which did not change anything for Gaza, cannot continue. Hamas instead is likely pulling all its strength to impose a new formula that forces external actors

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

9 months

@CrisisGroup (4) this is very different from the previous confrontations in which Palestinian groups tried to pressure Israel with missile strikes. Palestinian factions have entered Israeli cities and taken hostages (so they want to a negotiate or deter Israel)

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

3 years

Limited research analyses if and how jihadi group can become pragmatic and politicise. This is an article on a group partially associated with this trend in Syria, Ahrar al-Sham. Although AaS has been less covered, it is one of the most interesting experience in Syria (1)

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

2 years

More importantly, it should be open access so that everyone can read it easily. In the meantime, check its official webpage: (7)

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

2 years

The book is finally available on open access there: (pdf: )

Institutionalizing Violence: Strategies of Jihad in Egypt

Abstract. Institutionalizing Violence offers a detailed focus on the two most influential Egyptian jihadi groups—al-Jama‘a al-Islamiyya and Islamic Jihad.

academic.oup.com

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

9 months

@CrisisGroup (Arabs and Western) to be involved, understanding that this situation cannot continue

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

3 years

@patrickhaenni and myself have just completed a new research on HTS based on extensive field research in Idlib. We interviews Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, the group's commander, Abu Abdullah al-Shami, its main religious figure, and the head of the military Abul-Hassan

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

8 months

A Crisis Group @CrisisGroup Q&A on the October War in Gaza A slow Israeli response? Why the attack occured now? what's next? What is the role of external actors?

A Second October War in Israel-Palestine | Crisis Group

On 7 October, Hamas carried out a massive assault on Israel, drawing immediate comparisons to the 1973 conflict, when the Egyptian and Syrian armies similarly breached Israeli defences. In this Q&A,...

www.crisisgroup.org

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

3 years

Crisis group published many reports on conflicts involving jihadi groups over the years, and the prospects of negotiations. Before publishing a comprehensive report on the topic this month, let’s review important milestones. (1)

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

2 years

The book is based on extensive field research with leaders and members of the two groups, many of whom passed away since then in Syria and Egypt. I extensively quote the interviews to illustrate the group’s comparative views on violence and non-violence (2)

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

2 years

My response is that what matters is not simply ideology, but how jihadi groups institutionalise, and how their institutionalisation shapes their long-term strategic choices. Ideas matter, but how a group organises is more important (5)

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

2 years

In light of recent developments in the Sahel, here are two reports on engaging jihadists. Follow the threat for more information on how the ICRC engaged AQ leader Belmokhtar in the Sahel!

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

2 years

But the book is not only empirical. I develop an institutional approach to jihadi groups to understand how these groups form and evolve. I wanted to understand why two groups with a similar ideology can evolve so differently when faced with similar environmental changes (4)

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

1 year

The earthquake in Syria recalls attention to the north west. What happened there for the past few years? How is the security situation, and the position of HTS, the former al-Qaeda affiliate, on IS and al-Qaeda? A report and a thread (1)

Containing Transnational Jihadists in Syria’s North West | Crisis Group

The rebels who control north-western Syria are dealing harshly with ISIS cells but have not yet crushed them entirely. The best way to stop jihadists from rebounding is to consolidate the area’s...

www.crisisgroup.org

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

7 months

This, but the outcome is also to de-politicise a group like Hamas, emphasising that we can't negotiate with it, that its objectives are nihilistic (cf the focus on its charter), and that it can only be fought militarily

Alex Thurston

@sahelblog

7 months

The phrase "militant Islamism" also serves to conflate the Muslim Brotherhood and ISIS, by implying that ISIS is just the Brotherhood + guns. There too, the real-world harms are clear in terms of enabling authoritarians to crack down on nonviolent MB dissent.

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

11 months

So HTS killed the previous ISIS leader. For more info on HTS's campaign based on our field research and interviews with the group, see @CrisisGroup

Containing Transnational Jihadists in Syria’s North West | Crisis Group

The rebels who control north-western Syria are dealing harshly with ISIS cells but have not yet crushed them entirely. The best way to stop jihadists from rebounding is to consolidate the area’s...

www.crisisgroup.org

Nihad Jariri

@NihadJariri

11 months

He says Turkey "lied" as they said they killed Abu Al-Husayn. Says he was killed in clashes with HTS in a village near Idlib as they were trying to incarcerate him.

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

4 years

A preliminary article based on field research and interviews with the HTS political, religious, and military leadership in Idlib, to be followed by a much larger research paper with @patrickhaenni

The consolidation of a (post-jihadi) technocratic state-let in Idlib - Project on Middle East...

Jerome Drevon, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies; and Patrick Haenni, European University Institute Introduction[1] The regional and international environments have...

pomeps.org

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

2 years

The interviewees have a rich history in the jihadi movement, from directing the assassination of Sadat in 1981 to joining bin Laden in the late 1990s to the death of one of them of a US drone strike in Syria (3)

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

3 years

Crisis group ( @CrisisGroup ) will shortly publish an overview of the perceptions of the Taliban’s victory by jihadi groups. This is not merely perceived as a military victory as opposed to a political AND military victory, which shows the limits of AQ and IS’s approaches to jihad

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

3 years

Several organisations including @BerghofFnd @hdcentre @CRbuildpeace @Eurpeace are calling for engagement and dialogue with jihadi groups

A call to rethink Europe's 'counter-terrorism' strategy and prioritise dialogue

Seven peace organisations are calling on Europe to prioritise dialogue with armed groups and ensure legal routes for peace and mediation actors to engage with t

berghof-foundation.org

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

11 months

The last UN report on AQ/ISIS sanctions shows some of the limits of terrorist listings: HTS, which formed out of the Nusra Front remains listed (though it clamped down on AQ). But Hurras al-Din, which includes the dissidents who remain with AQ, is not listed

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

2 years

What does the killing of the head of IS mean? What will be the impact? What was the role of HTS?

Crisis Group

@CrisisGroup

2 years

NEW Q&A | A Death In Idlib: The Killing of the Top ISIS Leader and Its Impact "Qardash’s death is significant and should not be downplayed", explains @dkhalifa and @jeromedrev .

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

3 years

50 copies of the article are available there or

Can (Salafi) jihadi insurgents politicise and become pragmatic in civil wars? Social movement...

Most research on jihadi groups examines their violent radicalisation. Insurgents that politicise in civil wars and become more pragmatic without renouncing violence are less understood. This articl...

www.tandfonline.com

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

2 years

@CrisisGroup Zawahiri’s presence in Kabul is not surprising. Some of his associates told us that the Taliban either ordered him to maintain a low presence, or that AQ simply understood it as a necessity. Zawahiri’s emphasis on general issues in his communications tend to support this

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

3 years

Jihadi groups are learning their own lessons of the Taliban victory. We have to be careful before claiming that violence will necessarily escalate. A recent talk of HTS’s highest religious authority, Abd al-Rahim Atun, illustrates important key points. (1)

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

2 years

@CrisisGroup Being hosted by Haqqani might simply suggests an agreement with AQ that some of its leaders could be protected locally, without implying any intentions about external attacks that could compromise the Taliban’s commitments

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

7 months

Very recommended interview: "the difference between Hamas and PIJ is that Hamas is a political movement engaging in the military field, while PIJ is a military movement engaging in the political field."

International Centre for Counter-Terrorism

@ICCT_TheHague

7 months

📝 What do we know about the Palestinian Islamic Jihad? @KacperRekawek interviewed @ErikSkare to discuss the group in the context of the current Israel-Palestine conflict, its history and what it stands for Read the full interview ➡️

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

2 years

@CrisisGroup The recent UN SC report confirmed that AQ “lacks an external operational capability and does not currently wish to cause the Taliban international difficulty or embarrassment” in Afghanistan.

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

2 years

The book hence revises the two groups’ histories from their early ideological development in prison, approach to violence in Egypt in the 1990s, and partial creation of political parties after 2011 (6)

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

2 years

@CrisisGroup AQ faces a real strategic conundrum since its strategic direction is a failure. While AQ framed its rationale as the necessity to fight foreign enemies to establish local Islamic states, but the latter are now possible only as long as local groups cease transnational jihad

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

2 years

@CrisisGroup The same report claims that: “Next in line of seniority after al-Zawahiri are: Sayf-al ‘Adl (Qdi.001); 1 Abdal-Rahman al-Maghrebi; Yazid Mebrak (Qdi.389) 2 of Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) (Qde.014); and Ahmed Diriye (Soi.014) 3 of Al-Shabaab.”

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

3 years

An important review of research on armed groups' governance, its multilevel characteristics, legitimacy, the nature of authority and long term impact. For jihadi groups, a notable question is under what circumstances can jihadi groups give up some power and for what purposes

Cambridge University Press - Politics

@CUP_PoliSci

3 years

#OpenAccess from @PoPpublicsphere - New Directions in Rebel Governance Research - - @CELoyle , @kgcunnin , @HuangReyko & @daniellefjung #FirstView

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

8 years

The Constrained Institutionalization of Diverging Islamist Strategies: The Jihadis, the MB, and the Salafis

The Constrained Institutionalization of Diverging Islamist Strategies: The Jihadis, the Muslim...

This research analyses the comparative institutionalization of the strategies of three major components of the Egyptian Islamist social movement family: the jihadis, the Muslim Brotherhood and the...

www.academia.edu

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

3 years

Crisis group @CrisisGroup will publish a long report in the next few weeks about negotiating with jihadist groups: where do negotiations occur, what do they entail, what are their consequences and prospects (4)

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

2 years

We discussed @CrisisGroup with @dkhalifa our forthcoming research on IS in Eastern Syria as well as what HTS has been doing in the North West against IS and other groups

Crisis Group

@CrisisGroup

2 years

NEW EPISODE 🎧 Hold Your Fire! | Shades of Jihad in Syria

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

3 years

The paper can be downloaded there:

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

3 years

Most research on Palestinian Islamists is focused on Hamas. Here is a new research on a previously little understood group, Palestinian islamic jihad. Definitely the most comprehensive research on the topic. Highly recommended!

Erik Skare

@ErikSkare

3 years

and I hope *you* are looking forward to reading A History of Palestinian Islamic Jihad ( @cambridgeup ). You get a 20% discount with the promo code “Skare2021”.

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

3 years

Beyond violence, the Taliban’s victory raises the issue of negotiations. Militants look at the Taliban’s willingness to engage directly with the U.S. for instance. Other governments might also feel that it’s better to speak to militants now than after a potential foreign pull out

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

2 years

@CrisisGroup None of them are real public figures, or with the same credentials for AQ. This is an issue since all the affiliates theoretically have to pledge allegiance to any new leader to remain within AQ, since the baya is given to an individual

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

2 years

عمل مميز من الأخ عبيدة. من أهم كتب أكاديمي حول الحروب الأهلية باللغة العربية اول مرة. مترجمة هذا الكتاب جزء من جهود كبيرة مستحق للاعتراف به من عبيدة وزملائه

عبيدة غضبان

@ObaydahAmer

2 years

قريبا قريبا 🥳 The Logic of Violence in Civil War by @SKalyvas أحد كلاسيكيات حروب الأهلية ومن أولى الكتب في هذا المجال عربيا

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

2 years

@CrisisGroup Zawahiri’s term was difficult since IS emerged as a major international competitor, and AQ’s most successful affiliate in Syria severed its ties to the group, subjugated its remaining loyalists, and reached out to foreign countries

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

3 years

just received it today

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

3 years

The Taliban’s takeover might be a morale boost, but its real-like impact is uncertain. Most conflicts remain primarily driven by local dynamics, and militants are unlikely to change course after the Taliban's victory

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

1 year

I don't think that people fully realise the emergency. The first few days are critical. Foreign countries need to get their act together to assist the population that lives outside of regime areas, which precisely fled the regime in the past. Assistance cannot rely on Damascus

Charles Lister

@Charles_Lister

1 year

It's been 36hrs since the earthquake. To my knowledge, the international community has provided *zero* aid into NW #Syria , home to 4.5 million people, 3 million of whom are displaced. Zero. 1,200 are dead, 1,000s injured & 1,000s more still under rubble. Just utterly gutting.

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

2 years

New Crisis group briefing on the conflict in Mozambique

Crisis Group

@CrisisGroup

2 years

NEW BRIEFING | Winning Peace in Mozambique’s Embattled North Troops from Rwanda and southern Africa have helped stem an insurrection in #Mozambique ’s Cabo Delgado province. However, the threat is not yet gone.

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

1 year

very interesting @abdsayedd @ToreRHamming on the TTP: Three factors help explain why the TTP has prioritized a localized agenda: al-Qa`ida’s decline in the region, massive losses suffered by the TTP over the years in U.S. drone strikes, and the successful approach of the Taliban

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

2 years

@CrisisGroup So what will the succession indicate about power dynamics within AQ? Could it be an opportunity for some groups to simply abstain from renewing their allegiance, or trying to impose their views and / or leaders over the group?

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

3 years

Nearly finished this highly recommended book on the tawheed movement in Northern Lebanon in the early 80s. Incredible levels of details of the group’s localism, interconnections with other actors, internal tensions, and ideological development. Many lessons beyond Lebanon too!

Raphaël Lefèvre

@RaphLefevre

3 years

So happy to share news about the publication of my new book, Jihad in the City! 🙂 This book is about how the Lebanese civil war unfolded in the city ofTripoli. But it is also a broader story of how behind militant Islamism often lies many shades of grey - and why this matters.

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

3 years

I had the opportunity to read this article pre-revuew and would highly recommend it: who are IS employees? How can we differentiate them?

Matthew Bamber-Zryd

@mattbam1

3 years

1. Pleased to share my article for @CTCWP Sentinel examining the complex role of civilian employees in the Islamic State’s caliphate. IS relied on tens thousands of civilians to staff its governing institutions in roles such as teachers, doctors, electricians and accountants.

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

1 year

Extremely important, how the Syrian regime is trying to weaponise humanitarian assistance to rehabilitate itself and ultimately deny the (legitimate) case for cross border assistance

Ayman Al-Das

@AymanDas1

1 year

It seems that UAE has succeeded to make a deal between donors, Turkey and Assad regime to deliver aid to who affected by the earthquake. The deal include: 1. Provide a fair exchange rate for money allocated to the response.

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

1 year

Thanks Aaron, glad you liked it!

Aaron Y. Zelin

@azelin

1 year

Fascinating read from @jeromedrev . Lot of ideas to chew on and how it relates to other dynamics, especially in Syria.

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

8 months

Highly recommended views of our analysts on the ground, including Azmi, in Gaza, who was forced out his house by the unprecedented violence on Gaza

Crisis Group

@CrisisGroup

8 months

🎙️ New Episode | No Going Back? Hamas's Atrocities and Another Catastrophe in Gaza @atwoodr is joined by Crisis Group experts @JoostHiltermann , @MairavZ and Azmi Keshawi to discuss #Hamas 's shock attack on #Israel and its potential consequences.

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

2 years

Thanks for the thorough review! For those who are interested, the book can be freely downloaded there

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

1 year

This is really good for those who haven't yet had the chance to watch. The head of AQIM clarifying his views on negotiations, truce, humanitarian workers, the group's expansion, etc. Highly recommended.

Wassim Nasr

@SimNasr

1 year

🔴Exclsuif: décryptage des réponses d' #Aanabi émir d' #AQMI à mes questions sur différents sujets la menace contre la #France , #OlivierDubois , l' #Alg érie, le #Mali , le #BurkinaFaso , le #Sahel , les négos, la guerre avec l' #EI @julienfanciulli @France24_fr

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

2 years

What are the implications of Zawahiri's death? Will other AQ affiliates renounced the group like HTS previously? What does it mean about the Taliban?

Crisis Group

@CrisisGroup

2 years

NEW Q&A | The Al-Qaeda Chief’s Death and Its Implications

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

1 year

Thanks @BilalSalaymeh for the picture of my book at #ISA2023 @OUPPolitics @CCDP_IHEID @EcprPolViolence It is also available openaccess / free download at

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

3 years

We are organising an online discussion on the impact of the Taliban victory on other conflicts!

Crisis Group

@CrisisGroup

3 years

ONLINE EVENT | Could the seizure of #Afghanistan by the #Taliban be a turning point for jihadist militancy worldwide? Join us on 🗓️ 28 September for a panel discussion with @CrisisGroup experts @dkhalifa , @OmarSMahmood , and @IbrahimYahayaIb . Register 👉

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

3 years

Read the regional details! You can also watch our previous online event on the same topic at

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

3 years

A fascinating case. Highly recommended!

Tam Hussein

@tamhussein

3 years

1. 6 years ago I spent time with an AQ affiliated battalion in Idlib province Syria. Many of them were Muhajirs or foreign fighters. Whilst not relevant then, the 2 on the right claimed to be linked to Afghanistan, this is immensely relevant now given the Taliban take over.

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

1 year

How is the ICRC interacting with armed groups? highly recommended article with new updated information about the ICRC's assessment of how many civilians live under the direct and indirect control of armed groups worldwide

Irenee Herbet

@ihe2010

1 year

much substance to chew on in the last instalment by @mattbam1 and team of this yearly exercise: territorial control vs governing functions, listing and sources of influence on #NSAG . @Armed_Groups @jeromedrev @genevacall

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

3 years

Recommended new research on Raqqa after IS

Dareen Khalifa

@dkhalifa

3 years

1/3 Over the years we've seen Raqqa transform from a ghost town that witnessed some of the war’s most dramatic shifts into a bustling hub in NE Syria .The investment put into Raqqa delivered value remarkably disproportionate to its low costs.

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

2 years

You can also read the much longer research report that features extensive interviews with Abu Muhammad al-Jolani and Abu Abdullah al-Shami among others there

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

3 years

There should be a real debate on how to engage AQ affiliates or former affiliates beyond short-term military campaigns, which have not yielded any lasting strategic results

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

3 years

See also @dkhalifa @NoahBonsey

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

2 years

Highly recommended report on the Shabaab in Somalia. Military means have exposed their shortcomings after more than 15 years of conflict, could other choices including engaging the group lead to a different outcome?

Crisis Group

@CrisisGroup

2 years

Al-Shabaab’s 15-year insurgency in #Somalia has cost countless lives. Military means alone cannot end the war. The new government should test whether talks are possible as a viable alternative to stop the violence. New report ⇊

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

2 years

Extremely important, on the negative impact of antiterrorism legislation in peace processes

Delaney

@delaneysimon

2 years

I spent two weeks in #Colombia with @dickinsonbeth studying how US #sanctions have affected peace in that country as part of @CrisisGroup ’s research on US #sanctions in conflicts around the world. Some observations from my trip, a 🧵1/

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

3 years

This research covers a wide range of issues. First the SSG: how was it set up? What are its relations to HTS? What are its characteristics? Second, what are HTS and the SSG's religious policies? Is the group still salafi? salafi jihadi? Is HTS setting up a radical entity?

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

3 years

New ebook on salafism edited by Olivier Roy, with multiple contributions from a conference previously held at @EUI_EU

BLANC Théo

@Blanc_Theo

3 years

Thrilled to announce that the e-book I co-edited with Olivier Roy is out! "Salafism: Challenged by Radicalization? Violence, Politics, and the Advent of post-Salafism".

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

2 years

Our new report on IS's evolution in Syria after losing its territorial foothold.

Gregory Waters

@GregoryPWaters

2 years

How has ISIS adapted to it’s post-Caliphate fate in Syria & how does it exploit the fault lines & failures of the different forces still battling it? @dkhalifa & I examine the intricate relationship b/w the ISIS insurgency in northeast & central Syria:

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

3 years

This special edition is a unique collective contribution to the study of the Egyptian MB after 2013. Highly recommended!

Erika Biagini

@BiaginiErika

3 years

Our special issue assessing the #Egyptian #MuslimBrotherhood trajectories since the #2013coup is out on @law_middle Thanks to my co-editor @LuciaArdovini , and to @Khalilalanani @menshawy_dr Noah Mellor, Mohamed Yaghi and Nathan Brown for their contributions ⬇️⬇️⬇️

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

1 year

Highly recommended analysis of the new Palestinian armed groups that emerged in the West Bank

Joost Hiltermann

@JoostHiltermann

1 year

Are Lions' Den in #Palestine a paper tiger? Or something more potent? My colleague @CrisisGroup Tahani Mustafa, who was in Nablus in March, takes a closer look at the group, and similar groups that have emerged in the Israeli-occupied West Bank recently.

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

3 years

We also detail the subjugation of AQ in the province by HTS, and elaborate on the position of Jolani and the head of its military.

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

3 years

Only analysing armed groups' ideological production has limited value without understanding armed groups' relational configuration. Armed groups ideological evolution is informed by a combination of (i) armed groups' internal debates and (ii) interactions with other actors (3)

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

3 years

@dkhalifa @patrickhaenni For Atun, the three movements are similar since they (i) fight foreign occupation, (ii) focus only on their immediate enemies and oppose external operations, (iii) rely on their military capabilities to build a political project, and (iv) build relations with other actors (4)

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

3 years

Very much looking for this new book on salafi networks!

Raihan Ismail

@ismail_raih

3 years

Pleased to say that this is not too far away - now looking at proofs for my new book with @OUPAcademic . Very grateful to everyone who supported my work!

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

1 year

@abdsayedd @ToreRHamming This is very different from other cases, like HTS in Syria, yet it shows that global jihad is no longer benefitial even for a group like the TTP

The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan After the Taliban’s Afghanistan Takeover – Combating Terrorism Center...

Abstract: After the historic events leading to the Taliban’s capture of Afghan territory and return to government in the summer of 2021, the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)—better known as the...

ctc.westpoint.edu

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

3 years

One of the main argument is that jihadi groups' politicisation is not simply the outcome of armed groups' independent ideological revisions. Politicisation largely results from a set of constraints that shape insurgents' trajectories in civil wars (2)

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

3 years

An unusually large-scale study of insurgent organisational decline that could probably shed light on Syrian insurgents too

Enzo Nussio

@EnzoNussio

3 years

Why Rebels Stop Fighting. My new @journal_IS article with Juan E. Ugarriza on Organizational Decline and Desertion in Colombia’s Insurgency, based on reports of more than 19.000 deserters of the FARC guerrilla. @CSS_Zurich @URosario Free access here:

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

2 years

The article explains why / how the group severed its ties to global jihad, and what it means for our understanding of this phenomenon

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

3 years

The paper is based on extensive field research and interviews in Idlib, including with Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, Abu Abdullah al-Shami, and the military leader Abul-Hassan, in addition to many other figures

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

3 years

This case study is important beyond Syria. It shows that armed groups have to balance internal and external interactions, and that their ability to do so explains their choices including their potential radicalisation or politicisation (5)

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

3 years

@dkhalifa @patrickhaenni Atun compares HTS to both the Taliban and Hamas to emphasise important similarities and differences. Those who rely nearly exclusively on these groups’ publications too often overemphasise ideological or even theological differences, which are not even alluded to by Atun (3)

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

2 years

Highly recommended, a rare study on IS in Syria based on extensive field research

MEDirections

@MEDirections

2 years

In the aftermath of the largest military operation of the #Islamic_State since 2019, @patrickhaenni and Arthur Quesnay analyse IS’s resurgence strategy and assess Western countries’ engagement in the #war_on_terror . 🔗

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

2 years

"A team of 16 workers— some from the Islamic State, some from the Syrian government, some from American allies drove to the site, according to the engineer, [] The distrust and tension were so thick that at points fighters shot into the air. They succeeded in repairing the crane"

The New York Times

@nytimes

2 years

A Syrian dam was on a U.S. "no-strike" list. Some warned an attack could kill thousands. In 2017, a secret American force bombed it anyway.

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

3 years

@dkhalifa @patrickhaenni Despite real differences in terms of geography, positioning in the Muslim world, and societies, the comparison justifies the need for HTS to position itself differently both regionally and internationally (5)

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

1 year

Highly recommended feedbacks from Wassim, on his recent trip to Idlib

Wassim Nasr

@SimNasr

1 year

#Syrie voici ce que j'ai vu à #Idleb , @France24_fr a eu un accès inédit à l'enclave rebelle, à ses acteurs, une rencontre avec Abou Mohamad al-Joulani & Abou Maria al-Qahtani entre autres, à sa population, à ces villages chrétiens @julienfanciulli

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Jerome Drevon

@jeromedrev

2 years

The system is broken. The researchers write for free, peer review for free, ans the public mostly pays for their salaries. now the journal makes 10k to make it open access?

Nature Neuroscience

@NatureNeuro

2 years

In this scenario, the cost of publication is covered by an Article Processing Charge (APC) paid at the time of publication. The APC for Nature Neuroscience in 2022 is €9,500/US $11,390/£8,290.

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