I am a research analyst focusing on jihadism, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. ||Consultant ||MSc
@lunduniversity
||
@BBCMonitoring
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I don’t know when I will be able to write a piece on heartbreaking developments in Kabul but meantime, a thread on Islamic State Khurasan Province as I am seeing both interest and confusion about the group. 1/n
Fake video of fake Taliban. Not every bearded Afghan with a scarf around his head is a Talib. It also seems dubbed in a studio. All specially non-Afghan audiences should check the authenticity of such fake videos, which I fear will flood the Afghan social media from now on.
My latest for
@washingtonpost
on the ISKP future challenge in Afghanistan for the Taliban and its threats beyond the country for the US and West. Also, analyzing the myth of ISKP “covert relations” with the Afghan Taliban so-called Haqqani network.
Most don’t pay attention to ISKP literature & propaganda materials & also don’t track ISKP in Kunar & Nangarhar. As I do both, I can tell you ISKP declares killing Taliban & HQN to be a higher “religious duty” than the US and other “apostates.” ISKP followers believe this. 13/n
This is the Taliban lunch menu in the Afghan presidential palace, equally served to its PM, ministers, and guests. The Afghan presidential house budgets under the former government included huge kitchen expenditures, daily serving meals crossing 7️⃣🌟restaurants menus.
ارگ ریاستجمهوری/ نخستوزیری #افغانستان جز ساختمانش، دیگر کاملاً زیر و رو شده. این دسترخوانی است که محمدحسن آخوند هم بر سر آن نشسته است و به گفته یکی از اعضای طالبان، یکجا با آنها دوغ نوشیده. من سال گذشته با شماری از خبرنگاران ظهر مهمان ارگ بودم، ناهار مجموعهای از غذاهای
My latest for
@VOANews
on the Taliban leadership, organization, and bureaucracy? How it evolved in the last two decades constituting its "shadow government" which is now ready to operate as an actual state government.
How Are the Taliban Organized?
As feared, the so-called Islamic State Khurasan Province (ISKP) claimed today's devastating attack killing a dozen US soldiers and 60+ Afghan civilians. This is a big blow to US military and it also undermines Taliban's claim of having a monopoly over violence in Afghanistan. 2/n
😂👇
A Taliban social media top influencer Mobin, responds in a Facebook live session to a Pakistani Jihadist supporter and Taliban fanboy that Pakistanis should forget about participating in Jihad in Afghanistan and mocks at him to instead focus on liberating Kashmir from India.
Under HQN top commander Bilal Zadran, HQN-ISKP fought a brutal war in ISKP strongholds in Kunar.
The history of militancy & jihad is very complicated in this region. It will get more complicated in future. I fear a lot more violence is possible due to complicated dynamics. 14/n
#Taliban2
.0
Taking a picture was a major sin in the Taliban pre-9/11 era, but now the Taliban are installing mega billboard-sized portraits of its leaders in marketplaces, highways, and squares.
If the Taliban attack, Panjshir can’t resist more than 48 hours maximum. The Taliban are doing their best to control it without a single bullet fire, just like Nangarhar and Kabul. For the time being, the Taliban are busy with other important things, having no hurries for it.
I just got a journo query on the Panjshir and I thought I'd share my thoughts here:
1. Can the Panjshir stand the force of Strong Taliban, How long do you think Panshir can hold the fort against Taliban?
My latest piece for
@ForeignPolicy
with
@ColinPClarke
analyzes the influential roles of the Taliban deputy supreme leader & its MoI, Sirajuddin Haqqani, head of the HQN: "The Haqqani network has long been the most lethal & vicious element of the Taliban."
The Taliban's young spokesman
@QaharBalkhi
appeared as a significant bridge b/w its new government & the Western media. Balkhi became the Taliban's new face, professionally interacting with impressive English with the media, but he is now missing from the Taliban media briefings?
Habertürk TV Afganistan'da... Taliban Kültür Komisyonu Üyesi AbdulKahhar Balki #ÖzelRöportaj'da Habertürk TV'den Mehmet Akif Ersoy'a (
@ersoyakif1
) konuştu: "Taliban İslam'ın temellerine, prensiplerine bağlılık konusunda değişmedi. Hala İslam'ın prensiplerine bağlıyız"
I have been warning for the last year that ISKP is taking a new shape since Feb2020,& becoming more dangerous. By that time, it had been routed from strongholds in Nangarhar & Kunar to intense US CT operations,🇦🇫forces & Taliban actions. But I saw signs of a swift resurgence. 3/n
Another horrific friday in🇦🇫: an apparent ISKP attack against Shia mosque, this time in Kandahar - the Taliban birthplace & its traditional stronghold, having no past ISKP presence. It can be an ISKP threatening blow to the Taliban that its archenemy can attack anywhere in cntry.
Here is the Taliban deputy PM Mullah Biradar video interview with the🇦🇫national TV saying his absence from Kabul is not due to any intra-Taliban clashes.
Two imp things:
1. Biradar is "reading written answers".
2. His reasoning for not meeting Qatari FM is quite "interesting".
#BREAKING
The latest interview of his excellency Mullah Baradar Akhund. He has rejected all the rumors and vicious propaganda of the enemies of Afghanistan and enemies of peace.
Pakistani Taliban (TTP) releases a 38-minute video of dozens of recruits graduated from its "al-Farooq training camp." Its co-founder, Commander Umar Khalid Khurasani, addresses the recruits and promises a similar jihadist victory in Pakistan like the Taliban in Afghanistan.
The ISKP’s emir Dr. Shahab al-Muhajir, appointed in May 2020, also announced a new urban terrorism campaign against the Taliban, the Afghan government, and "their US masters." 5/n
..... due to the loss of territory in Nangarhar and KunarThe ISKP Kabul network is made up of battle-hardened, educated, and highly radicalized adherents of Salafism, even some Ikhwani remnants of the former Afghan Jihadists groups. 8/n
The Taliban fighters celebrating their victory with the traditional Afghan dance - Attan. It’s purely an Afghan tribal custom which the Taliban never declared “haram,” but it is an anti-Islamic custom for Salafists.
“Good stuff” for the ISKP anti-Taliban propaganda videos.
First, it announced and started planning a long new war against the Taliban, anticipating in light of US-Taliban deal that Taliban will soon take power in Kabul with the US withdrawal. I saw signs in Nangarhar & Kunar that it started gathering recruits for this new campaign. 4/n
The ISKP Kabul network also has splinters and defectors from the Taliban’s so-called Haqqani Network (HQN). Due to that, many have experience of urban warfare and conducting sophisticated attacks in Kabul for HQN over the years. 10/n
Why was/is ISKP able to hit Kabul so hard?It is important to note that ISKP has been drawing its new leadership and operational cadres from Kabul after the arrests/killing/surrenders of hundreds of its cadres, including political and military leadership..... . 7/n
I believe the current conflation of ISKP and Haqqani Network is because of these splinters and defectors. When Afghan CT agencies arrested former HQN linked-terrorists who joined ISKP in Kabul, they assumed that HQN must be playing a role. 11/n
These threats quickly proved true when ISKP carried out some deadly & sophisticated attacks in Kabul and Jalalabad cities, like the Nangarhar jail attack Aug 2020. 6/n
Many claimed the HQN field commanders were unhappy with the Doha deal, so they were carrying out terrorist attacks in Kabul in reaction to the Taliban peace deal with the US, but I never found good support for this theory. 12/n
The TTP-ISKP alliance is beyond possibilities for two reasons.
First, TTP is dependent on the🇦🇫Taliban. Any cooperation with ISKP means a war front against the 🇦🇫Taliban which has no mercy for ISKP, its allies & supporters. Thus, TTP can never afford any collaboration with ISKP.
My latest for
@JamestownTweets
on the historical background of the Salafists and the Taliban relations in Afghanistan, how it helped in the birth of ISKP in Afghanistan, and now strengthening the ISKP threat against the Taliban.
The Taliban deputy supreme leader and MoI, 𝐒𝐢𝐫𝐚𝐣𝐮𝐝𝐝𝐢𝐧 𝐇𝐚𝐪𝐪𝐚𝐧𝐢, hosted a reception for the heirs of the Taliban suicide bombers in a 5⭐️hotel in Kabul for paying them tributes. He provided cash support to their families & announced allocating them land for houses.
"Haqqani" is not an Afghan tribe but a family name of "Jalaluddin Haqqani" which he adopted after graduated in 1970 from Jamia Haqqani Akora Khattak - a religious seminary in Pakistan, KPK province. Jalaluddin belonged to the Sultankhail sub-tribe of Zadran, in 🇦🇫Paktia province.
TTP in a series of meetings with Pak officials made 3️⃣ demands… 1)opening of a political office in a third country, 2)reversal of the Federal Administered Tribal Areas (Fata) merger with Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa 3)introduction of Islamic system in Pakistan.
@Kamran_Yousaf
@etribune
Another US drone strike, this time in Kabul city, close to the airport.
Why not trusting the Taliban to go and arrest alive these alleged “ISKP master planners”?
Or, these are just symbolic strikes as a demonstration of the US post-withdrawal over-the-horizon CT capabilities.
I have interviewed the Tihreak Taliban Pakistan (TTP) co-founder and its influential senior commander Umar Khalid Khurasani aka Abdul Wali Mohmand for this latest
@BBCUrdu
piece analyzing the TTP negotiations with the government. His audio interview will be soon published.
The Taliban provincial governor and security chief for Kandahar visited the condolence ceremony held in a Shia mosque in Kandahar for the worshipers killed in the last Friday’s ISKP attack. He told all Afghans are equal for the Taliban and will ensure their security.
Most of them were ISKP. Some of the killed prisoners' families also told me that they were targeted by drones in the area between the Bagram base and the main highway. Some prisoners even informed families of their release, but only their dead bodies reached home.
#AFG
“10:30 AM, A bus loaded with at least 70 prisoners left Bagram prison on the day the Taliban let the doors of the prison open. After a while, air strike targeted that bus.There was also fighting for a while. We left prison at 2PM and left.” Several freed prisoners tells me.
Heart wrenching video from 🇦🇫side of Torkham border crossing with 🇵🇰 where 100s of women, children & elderly patients are spending nights in the open to enter 🇵🇰 for health treatment. Journalist Rahmat Ziarmal could not hold his tears back seeing their misery and neither could I.
A Hazara ethnic, Dr. Mohammad Hassan Ghiasi appointed the Taliban deputy minister of health.
A deputy minister from the HIG Hikmatyar party.
Taliban senior military commanders Abdul Qayyum Zakir & Sadar Ibrahim appointed deputy ministers for defense and interior respectively.