The
#AGC
is
#Colombia
’s largest armed criminal group, and also its least understood.
I have spent the last year trying to understand the organisation’s history, ambitions, structure, financing, and control. Today, we share our
@crisisgroup
findings 🧵👇
Some reasons that
@petrogustavo
's victory today in
#Colombia
is historic. 🧵 These are not normative judgments, but realities after a half century of conflict and all that it entailed.
1. Fear & stigmatization of the political left is no longer a winning campaign strategy.
A peacemaker and a statesman. I'm devastated to learn that Sultan Qaboos al-Said has passed. Condolences to
#Oman
. Here's what I wrote about his legacy for
@NewYorker
a few yrs back
You know what no one is talking about? The humanitarian crisis that is resulting - and will grow - from the collapse of the rural economy in
#Colombia
's coca growing areas.🌿
We are hearing about fields abandoned, inter-municipal migration, displacement, children out of school🧵
6. For the first time, campesinos, social movements, and civil organisations have been vital to electing a president. This is no small change; it is fundamental to understanding the new political space.
Sultan Qaboos was captivating not because he was a pacifist but because he was a peacemaker who intimately understood war. He rose to power amid civil strife, but oversaw the end of the Dhofar crisis and united the country around a common idea.
#Colombia
awoke from a mostly-sleepless night roiled by its most serious crisis since the 2016 peace accord
Mass protests escalating amid flagrant police violence. 20+ dead since 28 April. Major roads blocked. Hospitals full capacity w COVID. Military deployed to streets
🧵👇
2. Day-to-day concerns now dominate
#Colombia
political debate - inequality, lack of opportunity, rural development. The conflict-and fear of its existential threat to Bogota-are moved to the back burner
3. Diversity is not a liability but an asset, politically.
4. Colombians voted for a candidate who promises to negotiate with the ELN and dismantle other armed groups, in consultation with the society.
5. An outsider won, but with the support of many familiar faces from the political class.
In testimony to
@JEP_Colombia
today, fmr paramilitary leader Mancuso dropped dozens of names of political, military, business leaders to helped and abated a wave of violence in the 1990s.
His piercing bottom line: "This phenomenon of paramilitarism came from the state".🧵👇
Let me say clearly: the risk of violent escalation in
#Cali
is extremely high
There is NO armed or military solution to this crisis. But agendas on all sides are increasingly tempted to look for one
Without being alarmist, we are hovering on the edge of new armed conflict
“Why are social leaders a target? Because they are often the few voices within a terrified and traumatised community who are willing to speak up against the affectations of violence, whether against their communities or the environment."
Leaving Washington with an overarching impression that the increasing disengagement of DC in matters of peripheral geopolitical importance is emboldening policy entrepreneurship on the part of middle sized powers. We're just seeing the beginning of this scramble to fill a vacuum
Incredibly glad to be wrong with our previous early warnings about the immediate reaction to this election result.
Very good to see
@ingrodolfohdez
@IvanDuque
recognize this result so quickly and unreservedly. This is vital to a successful transition in the coming days & weeks
Los Curules de Paz siempre iban a ser tentadoras para los partidos tradicionales. Son jurisdicciones en donde sacar 3mil votos es ganar. Barato para la maquinaria. Lejos de vigilancia ninguna.
Y así fue. A pesar de las denuncias, la mayoría quedan en las manos de los partidos 💔
it's a bit unfathomable to me how the vast majority of US media coverage of Trump's upcoming Iran nuclear deal decision is completely devoid of mentioning potential impact in the Middle East itself
Big news:
#Colombia
top court
@CConstitucional
strikes down the environmental license for aerial fumigation, arguing the gov failed to consult communities who would be affected.
Effectively, fumigation is out of play as a strategy before elections.
Personal news thread! After 8 years in the Gulf, it’s time for our next adventure: heading to Bogota, Colombia to take on my equivalent position w
@CrisisGroup
. I’m honored & grateful for the chance to work in a country I'm deeply invested in and whose future is profoundly bright
As
#Colombia
threatens to restart aerial fumigation, we
@CrisisGroup
will release a report this week interrogating the gov thesis that rising rural violence stems from
#coca
. Finding: cure is worse than the disease. Forced eradication is exacerbating conflict, undermining peace
Mucha preocupación por el llamado
#ParoArmado
de 4 días en zonas de influencia
#AGC
: Sucre, Bolívar, Bajo Cauca.
Nos llegan denuncias espantosas por Montes de María: patrullas de AGC por moto de día y pie de noche, amenazas casa por casa, retenes dando ordenes a encerrarse 🧵👇
Let's talk about
#Cali
.
As we run up against 1 month of national protests,
#Colombia
's 3rd largest city remains the epicentre. Why? To what end? Where next?
Brief thread based on dozens of interviews in recent days across the city.
@CrisisGroup
@ICGlatam
🧵🇨🇴 👇
After living abroad for a decade, every time I come back to the US I am flabbergasted by the television "news". Not a single channel among hundreds shows actual news about the world. Or the country. Or anything that's not beltway banter above 3rd grade level.
This evening
#Colombia
's Ministry of Justice signed a decree, long in the works, to restart aerial coca fumigation.
With this, the government may well be able to restart spraying despite several pending legal requisites. Short thread from Putumayo 🧵🇨🇴
Ahead of
#8M
Intl Women's Day, here is a thread I have had in my head for the last 6 yrs about being a mother working a job that is mostly held by single or childless people.
Let it be known to women & men who fear it: Motherhood is not a weakness. It is a superpower 🧵
There has been a great deal of speculation around the reported
#UAE
drawdown in
#Yemen
. A thread here clarifying a few things and adding some context. One key thing to understand is UAE objective has been consistent for 2yrs: wind down involvement in the Huthi conflict
As
#Colombia
heads into renewed protests tomorrow, the way in which armed and criminal groups are taking advantage of legitimate demonstrations is shifting.
Brief 🧵 on trends emerging, based on field research in the last 4 weeks from Cali, Catatumbo, Cauca.
#paronacional20Jul
Allow me to summarize the weather in Bogota today, with each word representing five minutes:
rain, sun, rain, sun, rain, sun, rain with sun, sun, rain, sun with rain, rain, sun, sun, rain and sun, rainy sun.
Repeat.
🤪☀️🌦️🌧️
Gracias
@elpais_america
por destacar la crisis económica que está viviendo el campo colombiano en medio de una reconfiguacion del mercado de la coca.
Conversamos sobre los desplazamiento silencioso que se está dando en muchas zonas cocaleras
Estoy en Chocó esa semana donde la situación está crítica, invisible, y sin fin.
Lo más reciente: 2,300 confinados y desplazados por enfrentamientos. Es un ejemplo de un fenómeno generalizado, con al menos 50-60mil habitantes en confinamiento. Un horror.
Por lo que me han contado en los últimos 2 días desde el terreno, la situación en el
#SurDeBol
ívar es mucho peor que se imagina🚨
Los grupos saben que allá nadie llegue, no hay testigos en los medios, es una región totalmente invisible. La violencia no se ve.
lo que sabemos🧵👇
He was uniquely powerful at home yet leveraged his authority to guide Oman on a singularly quiet path in a grandstanding region. He reminded us that conflict is the easy choice, and peace far harder. Picking fights is a path of weak leadership while ending them makes a statesman
As part of its plans for Paz Total, on 1 January,
#Colombia
announced ceasefires with 5 armed and criminal groups. Today, all but one of those ceasefires has collapsed, amid legal and political complications.
A short thread on where we stand. 🧵👇🕊️
Denuncias desde Córdoba, Urabá, Montes de María, sur de Bolívar: familias sufriendo escasez de comida, combustible, básicos, por el encierro durante el Paro Armado del
#AGC
.
"Las autoridades nos condena a vivir a la merced del Clan", me cuenta un líder de esa zona. Espantoso.
“Mancuso’s narrative was that the military was not strong enough to combat the guerrillas themselves and needed an extrajudicial force in order to carry out the scorched-earth tactics that they themselves could not", I told
@LukeStTaylor
for
@guardian
.
This map of mass displacement and armed activity in the first 4 months of 2021 is a striking visual of the geography of
#Colombia
's conflict today.
Displacement, confinement, armed attacks all up as compared to same period in 2020.
@NewYorker
I will never forget what HE
@MMAlardhi
told me: "People maybe think that it is easier to stay away from trouble and more difficult to be involved... But on the contrary, it’s very difficult to stay the course and stay away from conflict. This is what His Majesty has done.”
When schools in
#Colombia
closed for 18 months, millions of children lost access to not only education but to a safe space
Here is the story of one school fighting back against an acute national crisis in child recruitment into armed groups
@CrisisGroup
When I asked a youth leader in Quibdó what daily life is like, she put it this way:
“Our challenge here is to make it through the day alive.”
In January alone, at least 14 youth were murdered in Quibdó, a city of just 120,000.
Brief thread🧵about our recent
@crisisgroup
visit
Sur de Bolívar, disconnected from major cities and hours away by river/ road, is at the center of
#Colombia
’s mutating conflict for control of the lucrative northeast – with mining, coca, ranching, palm oil.
I spent this week here, where AGC, ELN & FARC-EMC claim presence 👇🧵
amazing how a man who had been to the Gulf exactly 1 time for a week just mansplained me his deep reading of Saudi history for an hour. despite knowing I lived and worked in the region for a decade. you know. because maybe i might have some thoughts on the topic.
Colombia's southwest is experiencing a stark deterioration in security, unlike any we have seen in recent years.
Explosives, combat and firefights have left dozens dead over the last week in
#Cauca
and
#Valle
Short 🧵 on what is behind the escalation and what to expect
The AGC is
#Colombia
's largest armed and criminal group, expanding along 10 active frontlines and dominating the illicit economy.
I have spent the last year working to understand and map out their role, influence, and ambitions.
Our
@CrisisGroup
findings will publish tomorrow👇
Saudi Arabia Goes Back to Baghdad. Delighted to share my first report for
@CrisisGroup
on how
#Saudi
can contribute to
#Iraq
reconstruction and find a narrow pathway to quell sectarian flames and perhaps even find detente with Iran
For two solid years after
#Colombia
's 2016 peace accord, the tranquility in Toribío,
#Cauca
was exhilarating. Just to prove to how calm it was, friends would sometimes set out at midnight - giddy with anticipation – to walk the local trochas and canals. This was peace. 🧵👇🕊️
Buenísimo el nuevo informe de
@ideaspaz
sobre la situación de seguridad en medio de la paz total.
Números concretos que una y otra vez nos resaltan la importancia y urgencia de desescalar la violencia, y quitar el control social de las manos de grupos👇
In new
@crisisgroup
report out today, we argue that the keystone of
#Colombia
rural security strategy – forced
#coca
eradication – is exacerbating violence in the countryside
US-backed counter narcotics policy is undermining consolidation of peace 🧵🕊️
Across
#Colombia
today, another day of mass mobilization is underway
#ParoNacionalColombia
reflecting deep social and economic inequality, frustration with police brutality, widespread distrust of government
Here are some of the trends emerging as we enter day 21 of protests 🧵
Yesterday,
#Colombia
gov accepted responsibility on behalf of the state for extrajudicial execution of thousands between 2006-2009.
These steps toward reconciliation are the best and only way to rebuild confidence btwn military & communities, I told
@AP
The crash in the coca market in
#Colombia
"has created not only an economic crisis but frankly a humanitarian crisis", I told
@Reuters
.
With prices at roughly 30% of 2021 levels, tens of thousands of families are struggling with basic food security.
No perdimos el contexto. Quien gana la presidencia en
#Colombia
, le va tocar manejar una crisis cada vez mas profunda, generalizada, nefasto en el campo.
Thank you
@CrisisGroup
for the opportunity to reflect on why and how we do this.
Here is my story. Single mom, sometimes writer and investigator, always curious. West Africa, Arabian Peninsula, Colombia, 15yrs later:
Never stop hiking halfway up a hill.
Whoever wins
#Colombia
's tense presidential run off Sunday inherits re-igniting conflict in the countryside and a failed security strategy.
Now is the time to update the military's approach to rural violence.
My latest for
@nytimes
@CrisisGroup
👇
For the first time that I can recall,
#GCC
summit communique coming out of Riyadh on Sunday dedicated a full section to Gulf-
#Africa
relations, an indication of the growing strategic interests at play. Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti all get mentions.
Our
@CrisisGroup
report on
#FARC
, 5yrs after their decision to lay down arms, is out tomorrow🕊️
For me, it's a moment of gratitude to hundreds who opened their doors to me, shared a piece of themselves.
Peace is a commitment, a labour, and thousands have held true to it. 👇
He built a well stocked army and officer core but time and time again chose soft power. Amid a contentious border dispute, he chose to negotiate a delineation with the UAE, opening a friendship w
Sheikh Zayed. He was always ready for war but never sought it.
Roots of these protests are a secret to no one.
COVID has exposed and exacerbated
#Colombia
’s extreme inequality in every sense of the word: income, healthcare, education, even basic security and safety.
You have these things or you don’t – and most don’t 👇
Capture of the leader of
#Colombia
's largest post-paramilitary group could have big fall-out
Otoniel (mostly) unified (highly fractious) bits of the AGC. Big captures often spur fights for control. Early warning for potential humanitarian consequences.
Thread: The UN's food security assessment on
#Yemen
is now out, finding that 20m people - 2/3 of the population - face severe acute food insecurity . That's up from 50% of population last year
Mi
#Colombia
en los últimos 48 horas:
- Hermano de una amiga asesinado durante un robo
- Esposo de una amiga murió por Covid
- Amigo recibió amenazas en contra su vida
- La policía dispararon frente la casa de otra amiga
Por eso, señorxs, los jovenes estan por la calle.
Saudi and UAE grant Sudan $3bn in aid amid unfolding transition. I would read this as a gesture to give the military transitional council some tools to stabilize the economy and a cushion of time to figure out the politics
The AGC is the largest, most ambitious armed agroup in
#Colombia
today - and also the least understood.
With
@CrisisGroup
@JGutLucena
, we visited communities under their control to understand what it means for daily life. Watch our full mini-doc here
Los al menos 54 incidentes reportados en 3 días del paro armado
#ELN
son la punta del iceberg en reflejar el miedo, la zozobra, y el parálisis en donde viven muchas comunidades. No solo esa semana; es constante.
Fracaso, el manejo de la seguridad rural por parte de
#Bogota
NEW!
@CrisisGroup
report on how crushing inequality, police abuse, & a devastating pandemic have led
#Colombia
into a crisis decades in the making.
We dove into the protests, government response, armed group behavior. And here is what we found:
🇨🇴🕊️👇
Ethiopia/Eritrea breakthrough is such a shining light. An example in political courage and the power of seizing an opportunity when it opens. Also a crucial example of how Gulf can play a positive role in regional conflict resolution -- and must in order to win longterm partners
Let's talk about extortion.💵
Why has this particular form of economic violence grown so pronuonced in
#Colombia
's current conflict?
The case of Buenaventura is a visceral demonstration of how and why extortion is much more than economic.
🧵from a recent
@ICGlatam
visit 👇
Day 2 of Mancuso's testimony: coordination with the military.
The headline for me is this:
At some point, when civilian casualties were getting out of control, Mancuso was not ordered to stop scorched earth ops. He was ordered to disappear bodies instead of just killing.👇🧵
At
@CrisisGroup
, we talk to all sides. We side with no one.
Everyone who knows us, knows this. We side only with peace.
I stand fully behind my colleagues. Khalas.
“Indignation” is the word I hear protestors use to describe the situation.
Fed up w a nepotistic system that favors those with pedigree at the expense of everyone else.
Disgusted by the indifference of elite to rising violence against the most vulnerable communities.
#Colombia
#ParoNacional
: "What we're seeing now is a reflection of the fact that we haven't had this moment of reckoning about what does it look like to have security forces in a country that is no longer at war?", I told
@CNNInternatDesk
“We left without even putting our shoes on,” a mother recounted.
In Nariño’s Magüí Payán & Roberto Payán, local authorities report 90% of population –the entire rural area– is either displaced or in forced confinement.
Last week, we
@CrisisGroup
saw the crisis firsthand. 🧵👇
“US officials cannot meet with the former Farc, they cannot sit in the same room, USaid cannot provide financing to any projects whose beneficiaries include the Farc, or might include them... these restrictions are illogical and counterproductive." -Me
Vitally important piece from
#Colombia
today by
@julieturkewitz
and photos
@federicorios
.
The story of the Comandos de la Frontera captures so many of the key dynamics of the new wave of conflict cascading over the countryside.
Some of the key points 🧵
In the 90s, when faced with rising civilian casualties, the order was "instead of leaving evidence of this violence, you need to start disappearing people.”
I talked to
@InvisiblesMuros
and
@AJEnglish
about Mancuso's testimony before
@JEP_Colombia
👇🕊️
Remarkable moment today, seeing the chief negotiators for
@DelegacionEln
in Bogotá - a hopeful demonstration of trust in the peace process.
We are three days out from the start of a full ceasefire between the ELN and the Colombian state. Here is what we can expect 👇
“One of the core dynamics as to why these protests are taking hold so strongly is that there’s an enormous gap between the political establishment and the street,” I told
@guardian
#Colombia
#ParoNacionalColombia
🇨🇴👇
Shooting down of the US drone near (or over) Iran (depending who you ask) may be more provocative to US-Iran tensions. But for the Gulf, there is nothing more provocative than striking critical infrastructure like the desalination plane in Jizan. That is seriously spooky for Gulf
On the day US has announced de-listing demobilized
#FARC
as a terrorist organization -- and added 2 dissident groups as FTOs -- we
@CrisisGroup
have just released a report on the FARC's transition into civilian life, 5yrs since the 2016 peace accord. 🇨🇴👇
It's only Sunday and I am already sick of reading articles that portray the Gulf states as power hungry vessels of hubristic ambition without any logic or history. This portrayal helps no one and explains nothing.
Today's ceasefire with
#ELN
marks an important first step to de-escalating violence, I told
@nytimes
.
The hope is negotiations now advance further: “The priority for communities and really the general population would be a cessation of hostilities.”
الانفراج الحالي في السودان يدعو للتفاؤل وندعو أن يؤسس لإتفاق يقود المرحلة الانتقالية عبر شراكة حقيقية وثابتة، ولا يسعنا إلا أن ننظر بكل تقدير إلى جهود رئيس الوزراء الإثيوبي أبي أحمد لتجسير وجهات النظر تجاه الحل السياسي.
A 3-month bilateral ceasefire goes into effect at midnight between the
#FARC
-EMC and
#Colombia
. Both sides will cease offensive actions, finalize protocols, and establish a monitoring mechanism by next week.
A few important details about what has been agreed🧵👇
Mientras que los Bogotanos se quejan de la
#inseguridad
durante la cuarentena, tres bandas delincuenciales organizadas parecen estar luchando para el control en
#Usaqu
én, localidad de clase media y alta. Alerta Temprana
@DefensoriaCol
022-2020 nos cuenta detalles preocupantes 🧵