Risk of Ruin Podcast @halfkelly Twitter profile

Last Seen Profiles

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Risk of Ruin Podcast

@halfkelly

1 year

They should let Calvin Ridley wear the number -110

Fanatics Sportsbook

@FanaticsBook

1 year

The league voted to allow all players other than offensive and defensive lineman to wear the jersey No. 0 Calvin Ridley will be the first to wear 0

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@halfkelly

1 year

@maybebullish @BillAckman @FTX_Official @SBF_FTX If the exchange needed Alamedas liquidity to grow, and Alameda needed FTX client money to trade, there is no separation between the scam and the business.

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@halfkelly

2 years

We've done a few episodes about the sports betting business which you can check out via the link in the profile, but I wanted to offer a thread about the *rhetoric* of the evolving legal sports betting business. Because it is a shit show.

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@halfkelly

1 year

On the way up it was our unique brilliance. On the way down it’s a black swan.

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Risk of Ruin Podcast

@halfkelly

3 months

If you enjoy the show and could mention it to a friend that would be really great. Working on another episode now.

‎Risk of Ruin on Apple Podcasts

‎Business · 2024

podcasts.apple.com

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@halfkelly

1 year

I’m still amazed that after GameStop, Dogecoin, Bored Apes, casinos in every state, ARKK, 14 leg parlays, Robinhood, SBF, DFS, and…cryptodickbutts… the takeaway is we have a generation afraid to take risk?

Sam Altman

@sama

1 year

colleges prioritized making people feel perfectly safe over everything else and produced a generation afraid to fail, and thus afraid to take risk, and thus on pace to accomplish extremely little

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@halfkelly

2 years

One thing that becomes apparent if you talk to gamblers is that an exercise that starts as a math problem very quickly becomes a logistics operation.

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@halfkelly

2 months

There is a new episode of the podcast scheduled for the morning.

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@halfkelly

5 months

lol. The story in the book is about martingaling. You can’t sprinkle some magical first principles pixie dust on it to make it a good anecdote.

Christian Dean

@christiandean_

5 months

In the Elon Musk biography, Isaacson tells of a poker game where Musk went all-in every time until he won. It's an analogy for how Musk - in Peter Thiel's words - "understands something about risk that everybody else doesn't", and how he's able to create companies that seemed…

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@halfkelly

7 months

This is incredible. It’s like he tried not to understand what happened.

Sean Tuffy

@SMTuffy

7 months

“They had a great real business. If no one had cast aspersions on the business, if there hadn’t been a run on customers deposits, they’d still be making tones of money” ARE YOU FUCKING KIDDING ME!!!

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@halfkelly

3 months

This dude just required a federal bailout… recently! Their crowd is unburdened by reality.

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@halfkelly

1 year

New episode: The Disrespected w/ @AlderLaneEggs

The Disrespected

Listen to this episode from Risk of Ruin on Spotify. Marc Cohodes was the subject of the prior episode titled "Life's Too Short." Marc returns to the podcast to talk about figuring out the FTX...

open.spotify.com

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@halfkelly

1 month

I fucking love that twitter melts down for a full week over problem gambling and then Jason Robins is like “hey have you ever considered a 16 leg parlay?”

Jason Robins

@JasonDRobins

1 month

If you parlayed all the money lines correctly in yesterday’s tourney games, you would’ve gotten +483388 odds

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@halfkelly

2 years

I could think of some explanations that aren't exactly women becoming more interested in sports betting....

gabb

@gabbgoudy

2 years

this is awesome 👏 @FOS @FanDuel

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@halfkelly

1 year

On Monday I’m talking to @AlderLaneEggs to finish up the FTX / Silvergate episode. Then will post it as soon as I can.

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@halfkelly

1 year

Dropping the new episode with @AlderLaneEggs on Monday.

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@halfkelly

11 months

The NVDA thing exposed the ARKK shtick as nothing more than a half-assed Tesla stock promotion scheme. I say half-assed because they write "research" blog posts where the key piece of evidence = google trends.

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@halfkelly

11 months

@BillAckman @Ukraine Serious question - why didn't you take the money you "added to the pot" and use it to pay back the victims of Valeant - a scam which you were the biggest enabler of? Maybe you should address the past wrongs you've perpetrated before moving on to new schemes?

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@halfkelly

1 year

Have heard from several people (including my wife... which carries a lot of weight) that this is the best episode. @alderlaneeggs

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@halfkelly

10 months

Sometimes I go outside. Not often. Yosemite Falls.

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@halfkelly

2 years

The regulators should require fairness, so that the books aren't allowed to "bum hunt" when they've posted a line that in theory all customers should be able to bet into. There's no reason that the regulators have to be accomplices to a parasitic business model.

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@halfkelly

1 year

Marc Cohodes is Fired Up - Vol. 1 (this will be a multi part series about @AlderLaneEggs SBF, FTX, and Silvergate Bank)

Marc Cohodes is Fired Up - Vol. 1

A newsletter series on the famed short seller

riskofruinpod.substack.com

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@halfkelly

2 years

Currently editing the next episode. If I'm being realistic about timing it's probably like 3/21 or so for release. Guest: @John_Hempton of Bronte Capital, talking financial scams that go to zero (sometimes via $100)

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@halfkelly

7 months

Again - putting in a lot of effort to miss the point. How does Lewis not see that the exchange needed Alameda to provide liquidity? And probably one of the reasons to use the exchange was to trade against Alameda... like finding a casino paying 2:1 on blackjacks.

All In with Chris Hayes

@allinwithchris

7 months

Author Michael Lewis joins @chrislhayes to discuss “Going Infinite,” a new book about indicted crypto executive Sam Bankman-Fried. "The alleged crime kind of makes no sense," says Lewis.

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@halfkelly

1 year

Elon Musk signed a deal to buy Twitter. Then all hell broke loose. The story of the Twitter arb trade. Featuring @chancery_daily @ChrisDeMuthJr @evantindell

Rocket Man

Listen to this episode from Risk of Ruin on Spotify. In 2022 Elon Musk signed an agreement to purchase Twitter. Then all hell broke loose. This episode is about that merger, the investors that traded...

open.spotify.com

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@halfkelly

6 months

New episode: You Can’t Beat the Lottery* With @MrDoppy

‎Risk of Ruin: You Can't Beat the Lottery* on Apple Podcasts

‎Show Risk of Ruin, Ep You Can't Beat the Lottery* - Oct 24, 2023

podcasts.apple.com

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@halfkelly

11 months

Sometimes you release an episode that goes to town on the world's worst spin doctors and then 3 weeks later they completely fuck the launch of a presidential campaign. @AlderLaneEggs

‎Risk of Ruin: The Disrespected on Apple Podcasts

‎Show Risk of Ruin, Ep The Disrespected - May 1, 2023

podcasts.apple.com

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@halfkelly

1 year

I think across Spotify and Apple, the pod has 200 ratings and 195 of those ratings are 5 stars. I am proud of that, and also thankful to have had great guests.

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@halfkelly

1 year

When the pod had zero listeners it was just a tribute to "Gambling With an Edge" - I made a pilot show during the pandemic which just used GWAE clips. Have taken it some new directions but it will always have that DNA.

‎Risk of Ruin: Casino Exploits on Apple Podcasts

‎Show Risk of Ruin, Ep Casino Exploits - Aug 7, 2020

podcasts.apple.com

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@halfkelly

10 days

Arbs never sleep

Tom Gara

@tomgara

10 days

Unbelievably grim article about NYC restaurant reservation scalpers - people are paying a thousand bucks to buy a Carbone reservation on the secondary market.

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@halfkelly

2 months

I met @ValleyBlitz_15 and the rest of his group at @spanky Bet Bash. This is an episode about their role as logistics providers in the sharp sports betting space.

‎Risk of Ruin: Movers on Apple Podcasts

‎Show Risk of Ruin, Ep Movers - Mar 4, 2024

podcasts.apple.com

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@halfkelly

1 year

And then there’s Cohodes…. Which if you are a podcast host… you are not going to get a better talker than Cohodes. He has tons of stories, he tells them well. He’s sincere. He actually means it. You aren’t going to get better than that. And he’s entertaining. Helps a lot.

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@halfkelly

1 year

If Silicon Valley Bank wants to slow down the exodus of deposits they should talk to the legal sports books and get the low down on "AML/KYC on the way out"

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@halfkelly

2 years

Let’s see… we burned billions in marketing, acquired a bunch of customers that we don’t even know are profitable, and now our TAM assumptions are getting throttled. Otherwise it’s going great!

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@halfkelly

5 months

New episode: Credit Card Arbitrage

‎Risk of Ruin: Credit Card Arbitrage on Apple Podcasts

‎Show Risk of Ruin, Ep Credit Card Arbitrage - Dec 16, 2023

podcasts.apple.com

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@halfkelly

2 years

New episode: Zero, by Way of a Hundred @john_hempton finds fraudulent companies and shorts them. He talks about the challenge of sizing bets, how to avoid blowing up, and famous shorts like Valeant and Wirecard.

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@halfkelly

5 months

Arbs never sleep

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@halfkelly

2 years

Imagine paying thousands of dollars in customer acquisition costs for the thing that actual casinos consider their loss leader? $DKNG

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@halfkelly

2 years

If you've been following the $DKNG P.R. shit show, we have some episodes that address topics like: books kicking out sharp bettors, bonus hustling, and one story of an entire city getting kicked out of an internet casino.

‎Risk of Ruin: Made in America - Part I on Apple Podcasts

‎Show Risk of Ruin, Ep Made in America - Part I - Sep 1, 2022

podcasts.apple.com

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@halfkelly

1 year

The first time I asked to interview @AlderLaneEggs I had only 5 episodes, and they were all about casino games. But he said "Tell me more." I sent him a list of questions and then he called me and said "Ok, but if we do this I want it to be the best thing out there."

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@halfkelly

1 month

Advantage players

Nature is Amazing ☘️

@AMAZlNGNATURE

1 month

Whale Shark has learned how to steal food from fishing nets.

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@halfkelly

2 years

New episode: The Character Building Side Effect of Losing With Jason Strasser @strassa2 Jason talks playing high stakes poker in college, and running his hedge fund Caption Partners.

‎Risk of Ruin: The Character Building Side Effect of Losing on Apple Podcasts

‎Show Risk of Ruin, Ep The Character Building Side Effect of Losing - Oct 3, 2022

podcasts.apple.com

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@halfkelly

1 year

Congrats to @AlderLaneEggs and @AureliusValue on finding Silvergate, and then finding all of the shenanigans that ultimately took down the sleepy bank from La Jolla.

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@halfkelly

6 months

This is foster dog Harley. He’s a very good dog. Available for adoption through Angel City Pits.

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@halfkelly

1 year

I fear that the FTX witch hunt may have a chilling effect on innovation and venture capital, such that Sequoia may not fund another Caribbean based criminal enterprise for weeks or even months.

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@halfkelly

10 months

🙏 Thanks to all who listen and rate the show. It is always nice to see.

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@halfkelly

8 months

@quantian1 Also when he buys it he doesn’t lose the entire $47m. He can sell it for something.

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@halfkelly

2 years

If you enjoy the podcast and could recommend an episode to a friend that would be really appreciated. The only reason we need wider reach, is to continue to get great guests. Great guests are the secret sauce. Thx.

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@halfkelly

1 year

These are the most downloaded episodes.

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@halfkelly

10 days

This is Petey. (full name is Peter Van Reeder). He’s a pretty good boy.

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@halfkelly

11 months

Shorting stocks is easy. COIN sued by sec and 10 states, entire business is at risk, needs irrational exuberance in crypto market to make any money, AI hype has firmly replaced crypto hype, COIN sports a $12B market cap... down only 12% on the day. cc: @BagholderQuotes

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@halfkelly

11 months

New episode w/ @drivelinekyle A Healthy Disrespect

A Healthy Disrespect

Listen to this episode from Risk of Ruin on Spotify. Kyle Boddy is the founder of Driveline Baseball, which promises data driven performance training. He is best known for training pitchers in...

open.spotify.com

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@halfkelly

1 year

Re-watching "21" today and the NFLX description is "A brilliant group of students become card-counting experts with the intent of swindling millions out of Las Vegas casinos by playing blackjack." SWINDLING??

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@halfkelly

1 year

It's hard to imagine a more bad ass way to wake up from a heart attack than "Did we win the game?"

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@halfkelly

1 year

In Ed Thorp's book "A Man for All Markets" he tells the story of figuring out Madoff years before the ponzi collapsed. But it didn't matter because "number goes up."

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@halfkelly

1 year

"Ultimately it's exhausting." - Jeff Ma talking about the never ending search for +EV. Maybe the most relatable thing that's been said on the podcast.

‎Risk of Ruin: Blackjack Legacy on Apple Podcasts

‎Show Risk of Ruin, Ep Blackjack Legacy - Mar 12, 2023

podcasts.apple.com

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@halfkelly

10 months

These are the most popular episodes. “The Disrespected” will be on the list soon. Average episode just shy of 10k downloads. Slow burn, but I kind of think that’s the best fit for what I’m doing.

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@halfkelly

1 year

@AlderLaneEggs I mean just imagine telling someone on 8/1 of last year: in a few months the JP Morgan of our era is TOAST and also some banks are going down as a result. Oh and there’s a guy in Montana that’s all over it. He’s Bloomberg’s go-to on all things egg-related.

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@halfkelly

1 year

If you're new to the podcast we have episodes about value investing, craps, blackjack, short selling, merger arb, sports betting, slot hustling, travel hacking, video poker, energy trading, the storied Mayfair Club, and also the most well known hedge fund failure of all time.

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@halfkelly

1 year

A through line of the most popular episodes: folks not afraid to talk about getting run over.

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@halfkelly

2 years

New episode: The Mayfair Revisited w/ @Erik_Seidel and Steve Zolotow

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@halfkelly

5 months

One of my favorite things about attending closing arguments for $JBLU / $SAVE was sitting next to two airline pilots who were betting on it, and had been in attendance for multiple days of the trial. One of them made a very succinct and persuasive case for why the deal should be…

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@halfkelly

2 months

We’re all trying to find the guy who did this.

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@halfkelly

2 years

The best thing on Twitter right now is the lawsuit over the future of $TWTR. There are some smart lawyers offering analysis, but I find the discussion to be lacking on a basic point, and that is how the involvement of The World's Greatest Gambler impacts the case. WGG = Elon

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@halfkelly

1 year

If you enjoy the show and have a minute to leave a rating or review that would be very much appreciated. 🙏

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@halfkelly

1 year

Life Magazine did a profile of Ed Thorp in 1964 and he delivered this absolute killer.

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@halfkelly

1 year

@schwab_clarence @AlderLaneEggs the silvergate conference call had a mood that you would usually only see when a guy is trying to tell his wife about a pregnant stripper.

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@halfkelly

1 year

The first word in risk assets is risk. - @AlderLaneEggs

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@halfkelly

2 years

The title of the next episode is "The Mayfair Revisited" - covering the legendary New York club that was the inspiration for the Chesterfield in Rounders. Still working on it.

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@halfkelly

1 year

The kicker - casino investigates, finds no evidence of cheating, still tries to avoid paying, as if they are entitled to make money even if they lose.

Businessweek

@BW

1 year

NEW COVER: For decades, casinos scoffed as mathematicians and physicists devised elaborate systems to beat the house on roulette. Then an unassuming Croatian’s winning strategy forever changed the game

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@halfkelly

2 years

If you enjoy the podcast and can recommend it to your friends that's really helpful. The whole ballgame is getting better and better guests, so wider reach really helps with that. Thx.

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@halfkelly

1 year

Surprised more hasn't been made about what an absolute train wreck of governance it is for the CEO of a company that will succeeed/fail based on its AI effort (Tesla) starting up a 2nd AI company.

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@halfkelly

2 months

@garyblack00 Could I suggest that you have a bigger problem on your hand, which is that Tesla soared on the power of narrative - i.e. Tesla was a bet on the future that couldn't be replicated in another stock. That narrative is currently in process of unwinding.

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@halfkelly

1 year

Looks like new episode coming later this week featuring the card counter that holds a singular place in advantage play history - @jeffma Then it looks like Silvergate is teetering, so just a hunch but probably finish up the episode w/ @AlderLaneEggs very quickly after that.

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@halfkelly

7 months

Arbitrage everywhere

Mike Mags

@itsmikemags

7 months

The steak sandwich from Ruth’s Chris via UberEats is the single greatest value hack on planet earth. $19 sandwich vs $52 steak Same meat, similar amount of meat, and the sandwich comes with A+ fries (+sauces/toppings on side). Delivered right to your door. I love technology.

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@halfkelly

2 months

Imagine how many other scams are out there, propped up only by their stock price.

John W. Rich (Wealthy)

@Cokedupoptions

2 months

Imagine how rich he’d be right now if he could have just kept the fraud going a few more months

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@halfkelly

22 days

The “for you” tab is just post after post of explainer threads on buying small hvac businesses, short term rentals, or other bullshit. I swear I don’t click or engage with any of them. This site was once great.

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@halfkelly

1 year

GPT is really amazing if you're a self taught terrible programmer. I can feed it code that I've written terribly in R (and which often still has the same variable names copied from Stack Overflow) and ask it to translate to Python, and also make improvements. And it's like 95%

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@halfkelly

2 years

@chancery_daily “Maybe the real specific performance was the friends we made along the way”

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@halfkelly

3 years

Going back to sports with the next episode featuring @Gambleballs @edteach23 and @RufusPeabody talking about their time working together in Vegas. Editing right now.

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@halfkelly

4 months

The best is that at one airport they’re like “everything in one bin” and the next airport when you put everything in one bin they treat you like you’re an exact match for the DB Cooper sketch.

Kath Barbadoro

@kathbarbadoro

4 months

At what point did the TSA rules for going thru security start being totally arbitrary? Every time I go to the airport they ask me to do different things. Do they decide different rules every day and if so how

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@halfkelly

2 years

$OPEN is a little bit like $DKNG in that all of their messaging is like "hey look at how great we are at analytics and data science" and then the real business is good old fashioned bum hunting.

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@halfkelly

1 year

imagine thinking you have time to do a multi part long form series and then realizing you might need to have it done by friday at 1pm

Marc Cohodes

@AlderLaneEggs

1 year

Turns out the timing of this was Bang on.... He has it all on tape and the best is yet to come... Worth a listen

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@halfkelly

7 months

You either die a hero, or you live long enough to go on a 6 day cruise with another couple.

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@halfkelly

3 years

Inside LTCM Eric Rosenfeld went from MIT, to Harvard Business School, to Salomon. Then he was a founding partner at LTCM.

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@halfkelly

1 year

This is gross. All of the books employ social media teams whose jobs are to glamorize degen culture. And the AGA is involved as the professional turd polisher in the scheme.

Bill Miller

@BillMillerAGA

1 year

Despite a rash of cookie-cutter, click-bait “reporting” on legal sports betting in recent months, the reality is the industry is leading on responsibility—including in advertising. My piece in today’s @thehill addresses these lazy narratives:

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@halfkelly

6 months

You Can't Beat the Lottery*

‎Risk of Ruin: You Can't Beat the Lottery* on Apple Podcasts

‎Show Risk of Ruin, Ep You Can't Beat the Lottery* - Oct 24, 2023

podcasts.apple.com

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@halfkelly

1 year

@AlderLaneEggs This is the original episode titled "Life's Too Short"

‎Risk of Ruin: Life's Too Short on Apple Podcasts

‎Show Risk of Ruin, Ep Life's Too Short - Mar 11, 2023

podcasts.apple.com

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@halfkelly

4 months

Thanks to all who have rated and reviewed. Very proud of nearly all 5 star ratings, across a few hundred ratings, on Apple and Spotify.

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@halfkelly

1 year

When I started I figured the over/under was about 9 episodes. The most recent episode was #31 .

‎Risk of Ruin: Blackjack Legacy on Apple Podcasts

‎Show Risk of Ruin, Ep Blackjack Legacy - Mar 12, 2023

podcasts.apple.com

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@halfkelly

8 months

This is the least surprising thing perhaps ever.

No Lie with Brian Tyler Cohen

@NoLieWithBTC

8 months

This is an incredible takedown that shows just how much of a fake grifter Vivek Ramaswamy is. It’s even crazier than you think. (@/DrivenProgressive on TikTok)

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@halfkelly

1 year

Lol. Marc was like “yeah this is a zero” and I was like well let’s not be so hasty we’ll get something out of it. It dropped 90% the NEXT FUCKING WEEK!!!

Marc Cohodes

@AlderLaneEggs

1 year

@halfkelly We did this one in real time before the outcome was known.. A lot of fun and will let you all be the judge

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@halfkelly

7 months

I might have some sympathy for Michael Lewis trying to stake out (what is now) a contrary opinion - except that the timing of the book gives away the whole thing. He’s releasing it before the trial. He has a chance to collect more data and he just doesn’t give a shit.

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@halfkelly

7 months

Thanks to all who rated. New episode coming next week. Working title: You Can't Beat the Lottery*

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Risk of Ruin Podcast

@halfkelly

7 months

Sunrise from Portland, ME.

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Risk of Ruin Podcast

@halfkelly

2 months

I don't root against my shorts nearly as much as I root against former longs I sold out of.

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Risk of Ruin Podcast

@halfkelly

1 year

Average podcast episode gets 8500 downloads. Hope to keep improving that.

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Risk of Ruin Podcast

@halfkelly

1 month

Concerning

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30

Risk of Ruin Podcast

@halfkelly

1 year

Wong on Dice is an interesting book if for no other reason than as an exercise in critical thinking.

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Risk of Ruin Podcast

@halfkelly

9 months

If you have a couple of hours you might want to check out the latest episode titled "The Frontier"

The Frontier - Part I

Listen to this episode from Risk of Ruin on Spotify. To this point we've published 33 podcast episodes covering everything from slot machines to hedge funds. This episode is Part I of an attempt to...

open.spotify.com

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