The Baltic Jammer is in Kaliningrad.
5th proof, 3rd method.
This time with numbers on likelyhood. We just need a statistician to tell us how sure we are. Surely over 9000.
@PajalaJussi
computed how many radio horizons of first jammed plane intersect. Here, heatmapped.
I think I found the location of the Baltic Jammer. In Kaliningrad, Russia.
Since Dec 15 aircrafts have suffered from navigation errors over south Baltic Sea, on and off.
By plotting an assumed max jamming-range for each bad position there is one area standing out: Kaliningrad.
The GPS-jammer affecting aircrafts around Estonia is located in Russia, about halfway to St Petersburg from Narva, Estonia.
This is shown by plotting the highest density of intersecting radio horizons of jammed aircrafts on a map.
Further, a drone-based method supports it.🧵
The Baltic Jammer is in Kaliningrad.
The Baltic Jammer is a Russian GPS jammer that since Dec -23 has affected the navigation of 1000's of civilian & military aircraft.
Old method, new dataset, even more obvious.
Finally, data to disprove me. Thread 🧵
Last 46 hours Baltic Jammer has been running in south Baltics.
At least 873 unique aircrafts has had their navigation equipment jammed. Each one a passenger jet filled with civilians.
E.g. Ryanairs SP-RKS has been without GPS for at least 2 hours going in and out of Vilnius.
The Baltic GPS Jammer is in Kaliningrad.
Fourth proof, refined dataset, second method.
Jammer seems to be stationary or atleast always on land.
Animated over time: radio horizons of the positions where planes first encounter the jammer.
Kaliningrad, Russia outlined.
The Baltic Jammer is in Kaliningrad.
The Baltic Jammer is a Russian GPS jammer that since Dec -23 has affected the navigation of 1000's of civilian & military aircraft.
Old method, new dataset, even more obvious.
Finally, data to disprove me. Thread 🧵
Baltic Jammer has been running for 47 consecutive hours making this the longest run ever.
Red dots show affected area. Yesterday at 22:00Z it changed into a new configuration, green dots.
1614 unique airplanes affected, most of them civilian airliners.
During night 3 civilian ships seem to have successfully challenged Russian threats to Black Sea navigation.
Ams1, Sahin 2 & Yilmaz Kaptan sailed direct routes, openly advertising destination Ukraine over AIS.
Their origins: Israel, Greece and Turkey/Georgia.
Russians are tranporting something very valuable and going through hoops to get it there.
Remember the Russian tanker that left Baltics with a military escort a week ago?
Still escorted in Bay of Biscay but has grown and changed color! (AIS-name is the same, boat is changed).
🔺New VOI
This is interesting…..Gen Skobelev was red, ~13000DWT & had a different superstructure when I saw it depart the Baltic Sea on 23 April (see pic)
@TiaFarris10
shot shows SKR-772 escorting an apparently larger tanker which doesn’t appear, to me, to be Skobelev.
Russian Air Force has flewn one of its AN-124 cargo planes to/from Kaliningrad 4 days in a row.
It's the worlds largest operating cargo plane.
One wonder what is heavy/large, needs to move now and cant wait for the almost daily ferry.
My script has never seen it before this.
I wrote on the most recent Baltic GPS jamming. Thanks to
@auonsson
for sharing their data, which triangulates the jammers’ location to near St Petersburg. Other sources say there is evidence of Russian jamming there. Most likely force protection.
Looking at 6 hour periods of maximum intensity is showing very similar results as the whole period.
The aircrafts jammed on average have Kaliningrad in common spatially.
I found the location of the Baltic Jammer causing flights to lose position, again.
Kaliningrad, Poland (or Denmark). Pick your suspect.
With a new, larger dataset and more refined method I have replicated my results from yesterday.
Data only from when jammer has been active.
I think I found the location of the Baltic Jammer. In Kaliningrad, Russia.
Since Dec 15 aircrafts have suffered from navigation errors over south Baltic Sea, on and off.
By plotting an assumed max jamming-range for each bad position there is one area standing out: Kaliningrad.
What Kerch Strait doing?!
At a first glance it looks like Kerch Strait is blocked.
Coupled with this mornings rumour of a closed Kerch bridge it sounds reasonable to conclude that a block from the stillpicture on AIS-trackers.
I believe it is more complicated.
In the area standing out are three suspected electronic warfare sites (among likely many more in KGD). Marked in main map.
As detailed by
@giammaiot2
in the following posts:
Kaliningrad Radar station and possibile EW (Radome with trucks and military complexes apparently attached and connected to the dome)
55.16825323740142, 20.84254578169385
NL patrol vessel HNMLS Holland has been doing donuts and search/hold patterns south of a 150 km2 large wind farm in the English channel.
It is along an expected route of Russias latest subsea warfare ship Yevgeniy Gorigledzha.
At the center of the circles are 2 unknown echoes.
The GPS-jammer affecting aircrafts around Estonia is located in Russia, about halfway to St Petersburg from Narva, Estonia.
This can be shown by plotting the highest density of intersecting radio horizons of jammed aircrafts on a map.
Further, a drone-based method supports it.
Confirmation bias beware, but with last weeks news on shadow fleets in Baltics and EU-level talks, I wonder if something is brewing...
Just now DE coastguard and DK navy has taken up shadowing of a tanker last seen in/next to naval docks of Baltiysk, Kaliningrad. Dest: Egypt
This is a more zoomed in view of the likeliest position of the GPS-jammer operating around Estonia and recently famous for causing the brand new Helsinki - Tartu flight line to cease operating.
See this and linked posts for methodology.
The Baltic Jammer is in Kaliningrad.
5th proof, 3rd method.
This time with numbers on likelyhood. We just need a statistician to tell us how sure we are. Surely over 9000.
@PajalaJussi
computed how many radio horizons of first jammed plane intersect. Here, heatmapped.
Tonight the Baltic Jammer reaches in over Denmark and one of Northern Europes most busiest airpost, Kastrup.*
It turned on at 21:17Z today.
It took some warming up (literally maybe?) but after 36 minutes it was affecting about 40% of all flights.
We are on hour 36 of this electronic warfare attack. Or month 3 if you so will.
Picture, Mar 1 averages. Overlay: theoretical max radio horizon of 425 km.
Two russian tugs and one ship with a faux AIS is operating south of Gotland. They all turned off their AIS simultaneously during night. Swedish Airforce keeping tracks.
In a fresh Nord Stream doc DW sets out to try if sail boat hypothesis is possible.
They fail to even find the pipeline much less work on it and bring stuff down on the first try.
Perfect weather, large work vessel, highly trained divers, exact locations known to team. Link 👇🏼
I should add. The jammer over Estonia is very different in scope and temporal profile. A higher proportion of aircrafts are affected around Estonia and the jammer is almost always on. See plots.
Today the Baltic Jammer changed. Starting with normal characteristic yesterday, after running for ~11h 0720Z there was a sudden change in area affected.
A NW sector of about 140°-180° is spared from GPS-jamming since then. It has made the problem almost exclusively Polish.
SE Air Force S102B Korpen/Raven is on a very special mission today.
From Finnish air space it is listening to any and all emissions that result from military activity on Russian Kola Peninsula.
This is a first. For some reason FI air space has been off limits before.
4A81F9
The data for the maps was collected by
@SignalsEta
, limited to this area. Shoutout also to
@rundradion
who gives very detailed data concerning this issue.
This took some time to make so I will continue the thread tomorrow with drones, more radio horizons and closer explanations.
Data available if interest is shown. Stay tuned.
These maps depict density of radio horizons calculated from the first positions where 11496 aircrafts lost navigation from Feb to now. Altitude based method.
Below more zoom levels. There is no longer any doubt in my mind. The Jammer is in Kaliningrad, I believe at the coast.
The Latvian ship Zircone, suspected of breaking Russian sanction and posing an environmental threat to Baltic Sea has during last 36h been inspected by SE fighter jets, coast guard and navy.
All the while continuing her activities.
I suppose SE state is building a case.
Latvian ship supporting Russians
The Russian shadow fleet is refueled here - from ships off Gotland
”Zircone is registered in Cyprus and is operated by a Latvian company which, according to industry media, does not say no to Russian vessels”
Possible targets for the activities of the 3 "spanish" divers in Gdansk the other day include one oil tanker, one LPG tanker and two ships from South America. A thread.
Reported positions with a NIC of 1-6 was plotted with a radius of 300 km. I also tried 200 and 400 km which gave similar but less consistent results. These were heat-mapped.
The radius is an assumed radio horizon for a ground based jammer aimed at an aircraft at 10km altitude.
Swedish prosecutor on Nord Stream:
"We know quite well what happened, how it was done, what equipment and type of large ship that presupposes. Explosives are unique. We can close some leads and confirm other leads. Hypothesis on state actor involvement is strengthening."
There is now ground/surface GPS interference in Baltics. That is a gamechanger. Because high precision time.
Without precise time finance, comms, electrical grids and other critical systems risk malfunction. To a large extent they get time from GPS.
I made this analysis twice before, with less refiend data.
Here is todays refined set but run with the same settings as in January. The Baltic Jammer is clearly in Kaliningrad.
Link to previous analysis:
I found the location of the Baltic Jammer causing flights to lose position, again.
Kaliningrad, Poland (or Denmark). Pick your suspect.
With a new, larger dataset and more refined method I have replicated my results from yesterday.
Data only from when jammer has been active.
Given the large amount of positions (about 27k) and the quite clear results I believe I am still operating in statistically sound waters. Protests welcome.
The jammer famously affecting planes in Estonia is not the one dubbed Baltic Jammer, but a separate one.
It is almost always on and I am in the process of characterizing it. I will soon have enough data to localize also this one.
gpsjam illustrative for the spatial difference.
The Baltic Jammer is in Kaliningrad.
5th proof, 3rd method.
This time with numbers on likelyhood. We just need a statistician to tell us how sure we are. Surely over 9000.
@PajalaJussi
computed how many radio horizons of first jammed plane intersect. Here, heatmapped.
Trip down memory lane.
1987 divers found three separate caches of Russian pre-dilled TNT bricks along the shores of Stockholm. 40 charges total. Close to targets such as Armed Forces HQ, TV-house, oil industry, US embassy etc
Similar bricks have later been used in Ukraine-war.
Soon I will post a fourth proof that the Baltic Jammer is a Russian machine, based in Kaliningrad. Here's a preview. Likely there will be a fifth one too, with a third method.
Russian airline industry is collapsing because of sanctions, according to Ukrainian (and Russian) authorities.
Data from
@adsbex
supports this claim. Number of aircrafts in the air is slowly sinking, total flighthours is plummeting.
Dec 2023 vs Dec 2022: down to 1/3 activity
Ships in south Baltic Sea are seeing GPS interference. Stated by SE authorities, individual reports and is subtly seen in replays of ship traffic.
While the area has long been affected by GPS-jamming of aircrafts, these are the first confirmed surface effects. Reason unknown.
The GNSS/GPS-disturbance of south Baltic drastically increased yesterday.
There is now a large area where about 15-20% of aircrafts report trouble getting a position: south Sweden, northern Poland, south Baltic Sea.
Cause is still unknown, it is not because of solar storms.
There has been persistent GNSS/GPS-disturbances over an area in south-east Baltics since Dec 15.
Recent solar storms can not explain it.
About 4% of air-traffic is affected, up from a normal 0% for this area.
Cause is unknown.
Proportion measure (%) is a bit skewed during nights though, because there are so few planes in the air. And this effect is even stronger around Estonia. Plots show last months total number of observations for respective area.
Id this weapon?
Malmö, Sweden will host Eurovision this week. The police presence is unprecedented.
According to local news there are several sharp shooters on roofs around the main venue.
Curious what type of weapon this is, looks brutal (and mounted to motorized tripod?)
"it’s time for NATO to take action [against GPS-jamming in Baltics], the head of Sweden’s Navy said Monday."
@ektobbe
have adm Skoog Haslum expand pls! H/T
@lemonodor
Swedish public service confirms this is the largest ever GPS/GNSS-jam to hit Baltic area.
(But I suspect they read that in mine or
@lemonodor
's posts.)
Green dot map show the new configuration fully focused on almost exlusively Polish controlled airspace (Warzawa FIR), leaving a nice clear corridor for Kaliningrad-flights.
There are rumours/news about a nuclear icebreaker on fire in northern Russia.
In Murmansk nuclear icebreakers (sic) Sevmorput AND Sibir are docked abreast.
~30 minutes ago two small tugs arrived at high speed. They are pulling Sibir away.
This might be the fire.
There are some issues with the mapping. Coverage is limited and I have not taken altitude into account (lower altitude gives lower range).
A third issue is that the majority of flights in dataset pass NW of suspected area, which likely skewed the result in that direction.
Finally!
"The Navigator Scientific Club from the Municipal Office in Gdynia"* is publishing actual spectrum measurements of the Kaliningrad Jammer.
Looks like the Russian system Glonass is excluded. 🫨🤯
Hoping for some english publication soon, cause * is machine translated.
Koło Naukowe Nawigator z UM w Gdyni zajmujące się zakłóceniami sprawdziło co się w nocy działo w rejonie Gdyni z sygnałem a raczej brakiem GPS na Zatoce Gdańskiej. Analiza widma częstotliwości L1 GNSS wykazała, że zastosowano precyzyjnie wycelowane
Disclaimers: i am human and there might be errors/typos, ADSb-data is possible to manipulate. Do not base your geopolitical decisions on this analysis, ask your services.
Media: go confirm this with the ones responsible.
In a replay of the last 24hrs one can see how ship-signals disappear while they traverse the Kerch strait.
Ships then turn up again at the other side.
To me this indicates some kind of jamming, not too suprising.
At the time of damage to Balticconnector and comms-cable E-finest two ships passed these and the later military exclusion zones.
Sevmorput, powerful, sturdy ice-breaker, Russian, military-affiliated.
Newnew Polar Bear, Chinese, ice-capable, traffic Russia.
No other ship fit.
Kaliningrad AIS-observations for today:
The Russian Baltic Fleet tugs were active during day, indicating fleet movement.
An oiler is a brest some war ship (bunkering?).
An offshore supply ship is patrolling the border.
AIS-caveats apply. Mini-thread.
Drones sighted in south Sweden.
Between 22 and 03 last night night large drones were reported over Malmö airport, inactive nuclear power plant Barsebäck, strategic port Ystad and hamlet Svedala.
Police is investigating in cooperation with armed forces.
Since yesterday morning Russian state operated (subsea capable) vessel Spasatel Karev has been doing a slow dance with Finnish Coast Guard patrol Turva above pipes and comms cables of Gulf of Finland.
One (3h) focal point has been the Kaliningrad - St Petersburg comms cable.
Spasatel Karev:
"The vessels are equipped with machinery to investigate the sea bed and damaged objects lying in depths of up to 1,000 m. MPSV07 class can also perform underwater diving operations to depths as low as 300 m"
The foreign ministers of all thre Baltic states are now linking the Russian GPS jamming with risks of an air disaster.
During weekend, the jamming forced two Finnish flights to turn around and the Tartu - Helsinki line is now under threat of closing.
UA attacks Sevastopol.
Simultaneously (?)* Starlink network went down globally.
I assume various agencies are on top of this and are inspecting the communication patterns of Starlink, Elmo and RU during last night.
Coincidence? 2nd act of aiding RU?
@masonrothman
?
Baltic GPS-jam has continued with New Years eve showing the largest area so far caught by method.*
Dec 26 saw more numerous bad positions reported but the area yesterday was larger.
@rundradion
's observations also indicate a larger area than known so far.
Video: hex's by count
GPS interference in the south Baltic sea continued over new years celebrations. Someone had to work that big antenna. Starting at 22:20 (GMT +1) on New Year's Eve and ending 05:30 on New Year's Day. (Red track means GPS accuracy is >10 NM or unknown)
Baltic Jammer is in Kaliningrad.
7th proof, 3.5rd method*.
Wayne, who, if we believe his bio, is more qualified than me at math reached the same conclusion as me with his first analysis.
I'll provide him (or you!) with any data asked for, lets see!
I thought I would try to help out with the GPS jamming from Kaliningrad. I used data from
@auonsson
, who has done some amazing work already.
Anyway, here are my results for possible location of the Jammer.
For reference, the area where Norwegian Secret Service claims there are Russian operatives is the one marked "330k GWh", aka the area that supplied 6 times more gas than Russia so far in 2024.
Caveat, just checked now at , not my field.
@quantum_CNI
true?
Really interesting article - Norwegian authorities believe
#Russia
has operatives in the
#Vestland
region who might be planning sabotage against critical infrastructure.
46% of planes around Baltics reported sudden low navigational accuracy tonight.
The rest of Europe was not looking much perkier.
Same chrono-spatiality as yesterday: Italy - Sthlm - Baltics - Europe
Still dont know what we are seeing other than a significant something.
Aircrafts over Europe are again reporting bad navigational accuracy values.
It started 21:19Z and peaked at 21:32 with 46% of airplanes seen reporting NIC 1-6, from 0% 20 minutes earlier.
Preliminary data, this seems extreme and might be wrong. Coverage = yellow circles
The GPS-jammer affecting aircrafts around Estonia is located in Russia, about halfway to St Petersburg from Narva, Estonia.
This is shown by plotting the highest density of intersecting radio horizons of jammed aircrafts on a map.
Further, a drone-based method supports it.🧵
The filter applied is as follows: remove all points != NIC 1-6 (low nav quality), remove all points outside polygon (jammer historic reach), remove all points where jammer is not on, keep only first unique aircraft message per 3 hour period.
47378 -> 11496 points.
French Air Force Mirage 2000 F-UGJH/3B75A9 made 3 fast passes along Kaliningrads southern border this afternoon.
This is very rarely seen on ADS-B. I can only find a three flights since 2020, and they were not this close nor the same pattern.
Russian research (and likely) spy ship Akademik Fedorov was intercepted by no less than 7 naval vessels after entering Skagerrak yesterday.
At skagen NO, BE, EE and DK navy vessels greeted her, 2 of them doing a lap around Fedorov. She was then left alone for DK straits. cont...
"Where is the Baltic Fleet atm?"
Given that no-one (?) keeps track of this I will make a tactical* attempt to answer it partly.
First indication, Kronstadt had lots of ice Mar 3, cleared by Mar 6. Cant tell earlier, too much clouds.
Baltic Jam datasets, my refined one + two unedited full sets (shorter timeperiod) can be found in this paste:
I encourage other researchers or naysayers to download this data and do their own analysis to disprove me.
All constructive feedback welcome!
Further disclaimers: there are some false positive points in my dataset seen by Kastrup and Warzaw airport.
The area SE of Kaliningrad has fewer planes and those skim the Belarus/Ukraine borders, skewing a bit.
I dont think these issues affect enough. But pls disprove me =)
Global GPS-jam?
The effect seen around Baltic Sea, interpeted and sometimes confirmed as GPS-jamming, is clearly visible in a global dataset.
Globally there is a baseline noise of aircrafts reporting low GPS accuracy, but when Baltic Jammer starts, it increases. (Jan 22-25)
@CFinckelstein
@nicolange_
Not stupid at all, the middle of the circles (5817 of them) are where each unique plane first lost their position (points 🟣)
The radii are calculated from the altitude of the plane, higher up = longer reach for the jammer. Where most circles intersect = most likely jam position.
The origins are interesting in that they are all potential sources of weapons.
Yet, these ships seems to navigate freely over Black Sea, in contempt of the alleged threat that Russia will treat any ship, civilian or not, heading for Ukraine as potential targets.
Estonia jammer is south-west of St Petersburg, part 2: drone proof!
Drone photographer
@kristjanlust
made this beautiful flight in Narva, pointing east. At altitude 60 meter all GPS is gone. This gives us a new radio horizon.
The horizon intersects* with location shown by me.
I gave the best part of my life to ensure flight safety and I'm fckn sick & tired of this 🇷🇺 terrorism being allowed to endanger thousands of flights, potentially causing a major air disaster.
FFS,
@NATO
do your job!!!
#Baltic
#Balticjammer
#Kaliningrad
#NATO
#EASA
Yesterday evening aricrafts all over Europe reported degraded navigation accuracy.
Event started at the expected time of Baltic Jammer startup, but not limited to the Baltics.
First N Italy, Stockholm, central and then propagating SW.
I am quite unsure of what we are seeing.
I think the Baltic Jammer started tonight 21:20Z and that it ran on high effect for just a short while.
Effects, by my metrics, are seen very far from suspected source in Kaliningrad. Much further than possible via radio-emission from one spot.
Either my metrics are wrong or?
Finnish lieutenant, responsible for training others in electronic warfare and comms, found to be active in large Russian disinformation Telegramchannel. (And he is against vaccines, surprise)
Vårt undersökande team lyckades identifiera en finländsk man som både försvarsutbildar och sprider rysk propaganda. Det var inte lätt, och utan Petri Jääskeläinen
@KmyBeat
hade vi nog inte hittat rätt.
Weekly mil air cargo transports from/to Kaliningrad are at a 3 year record. It is wednesday.
AN-124 (RA-82014, cs RA82013, 15405E) and IL-76 (RF-78659, cs 65C78659, 1D3343) are the planes doing it.
Where? What? S-400 systems to Ukraine front? We need to find the other airport.
Russian Air Force has flewn one of its AN-124 cargo planes to/from Kaliningrad 4 days in a row.
It's the worlds largest operating cargo plane.
One wonder what is heavy/large, needs to move now and cant wait for the almost daily ferry.
My script has never seen it before this.
But looking at other periods over the last few weeks there are periods with zero shipping and other with large groups.
Strange. I have a hard time believing mondays see a hundred ships and tuesday only 1. Something is up. I should and will try and dive deeper.
Swedish Security Service confirms that the rupture of Nordstream 1 and 2 was an act of sabotage. Traces of explosives and foreign objects have been found.
English version:
@Northern_Sentry
@MatchlessMan410
@The_Lookout_N
Säkerhetspolisens utredning vid Nord Stream 1 och 2 visar att det rör sig om ett grovt sabotage. Bland annat har främmande föremål påträffats och rester av sprängämnen på flera av de främmande föremål som tagits i beslag har identifierats.
Aircrafts over Europe are again reporting bad navigational accuracy values.
It started 21:19Z and peaked at 21:32 with 46% of airplanes seen reporting NIC 1-6, from 0% 20 minutes earlier.
Preliminary data, this seems extreme and might be wrong. Coverage = yellow circles
The aircraft transporting UK Sec of Defense Grant Schapps was jammed yesterday. So too were 511 other aircraft.
The RAF transport, hex 407d8f, flew in the area by me dubbed Baltic Jammer, known since Dec -23. It got jammed going in and going home.
Doubt it was directed, thread.
Nord Stream hypothesises
Russian state ships
Support: official statements by DK Armed forces, radiotraffic, AIS-data, satellite images, statements by named officers.
Sailboat
Support: anonymous sources, a few receipts and traces of explosives on a toilet.
Links👇🏻
@wireout
Not only navigation, I'd wager to say that time-keeping might be even more important. (GPS is the main provider of high-precision time and long periods without will break very important systems).
Attack? Ask your MP =)
Mapping the mappers
Starting 2019 a US Army contractor has been mapping parts of Europe. In this thread, I’ll show you what was mapped, when it was mapped and some background.
Zircone, ship suspected of offering Russian fuel for other ships has moved from Gotland and Swedish EEZ to Bornholm and Danish EEZ.
Now next to another bunker tanker, Rina. This comes after heightened SE scrutiny. DK navy is there already the first hours.
The Latvian ship Zircone, suspected of breaking Russian sanction and posing an environmental threat to Baltic Sea has during last 36h been inspected by SE fighter jets, coast guard and navy.
All the while continuing her activities.
I suppose SE state is building a case.
Swedish + German Air Force today scrambled quick reaction fighters to identify an unknown aircraft entering Swedish FIR (non-territorial, but administrative air space).
The aircraft was a Russian SIGINT aircraft IL-20M Coot-A.
Idag har vår incidentrote genomfört visuell identifiering (VID) av en Rysk IL-20 (signalspaning) som flög in i svensk flyginformationsregion (FIR) sydost Blekinge. VID genomfördes tillsammans med 2 tyska Eurofighters i beredskap från Nato som startade från Laage i 🇩🇪
#flygvapnet
Polish armed forces has issued an extensive navigation warning along Polands eastern border, referring to:
"unplanned military activities related to national security" (machinetranslated)
Concerning aircraft from ground to 3000 meters.
Informujemy, że opublikowane 02.02.2024 roku przez Polską Agencję Żeglugi Powietrznej
@PANSA_PL
ostrzeżenie nawigacyjne dla użytkowników przestrzeni powietrznej NOTAM N0604/2024, zostało opracowane i opublikowane w porozumieniu z Dowództwem Operacyjnym RSZ.
Komunikat ma na celu