Anselm Hager @anselmhager Twitter profile

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

1 year

Across Berlin, Holocaust victims are remembered with stumbling blocks. The memorials always leave a deep impression on me. Do such memorials affect attitudes? In a new paper, we find the blocks have a negative “effect” on the vote-share of the xenophobic AfD party.

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

7 months

Has #Hamas invasion affected public opinion toward the conflict? By pure coincidence, @miguelmaria and I currently have a survey in the field, measuring who Germans blame for conflict in the ME. The attack has significantly shifted opinion: A majority now blames Palestinians.

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

4 months

🎓 We are advertising a Pre-Doc/PhD position at Humboldt. You get a nice office in the heart of Berlin, free coffee, and a tremendous community of scholars working on cutting-edge social science. Your own project can be on whatever excites you! Deadline is Feb 21. Ad is below

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

2 years

Are protesters motivated by the size of their own group? In our @apsrjournal we find: as the own protest gets larger, left-wing activists become *more* likely to protest. By contrast, far right activists become *less* likely to protest. So, the right is free-riding! A thread

American Political Science Review

@apsrjournal

2 years

When facing a counterprotest, why do movement supporters choose to protest or not? Check out this article by @anselmhager , @LukasHenselEcon , @johanneshermle , and @cp_roth now in #APSRFirstView . #polisciresearch

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

3 years

Is surveillance an effective tool to silence dissidents? I've wondered about this question ever since I saw the movie "lives of others." In a new paper, we use data from Communist Poland and show that surveillance actually backfired and sparked protests.

American Political Science Review

@apsrjournal

3 years

Does state repression spark protests? In a new #APSRFirstView , @anselmhager & Krzysztof Krakowski find government violence & surveillance makes citizens more likely to protest. #APSR #polisciresearch

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

2 years

🔊Job alert: Humboldt is hiring a tenure-track AP in comparative politics. You’d join an excellent group of scholars in the heart of bustling Berlin. Bonus: the office overlooks the river Spree. The full ad is here: @POCalsoknow @womenalsoknow

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

2 years

Humboldt's Political Science seminar series is back. Come join us in Berlin and learn about corruption, coalition formation, and globalization (and more). It's the perfect Tuesday lunch getaway. Our doors are open to anyone!

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

2 years

EuroWEPS is back! We will meet in Berlin in person @thehertieschool on June 3 and discuss designs / papers with a focus on causal inference. No presentations, just constructive discussions. Early career scholars are especially welcome to apply! Submission deadline is May 5.

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

2 years

EuroWEPS is back! We will meet in Florence (hybrid) on Dec 2 to discuss designs/papers with a focus on causal inference. No presentations, just constructive discussions. Early career scholars are especially welcome to apply! Submission deadline is Oct 23.

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

3 months

Sind Umfrageinstitute “biased”? Schneiden bestimmte Parteien besser ab? Ich habe mir das im Zug gerade mal angeguckt. Basis sind alle Umfragen seit 1998 von @Wahlrecht_de . Fun fact zuerst: Forsa hat *keinen* SPD-Bias. Eher stimmt das Gegenteil :)

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

3 years

We are excited to host EuroWEPS III on April 23. We'll get together for one day and discuss designs / papers that focus on causal inference in political science. No presentations, just discussions. Early career are especially welcome to apply! Submission deadline is March 5.

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

1 year

@miguelmaria The stumbling blocks are a unique memorial. They are decentralized, and thus create a very personal, immediate connection to a victim. One cannot go across Berlin without noticing them. The sheer number creates a constant reminder of the horrors of the Holocaust (see map).

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

1 year

@miguelmaria Berlin is also the birthplace of a more decentralized memorial, the stumbling block. Invented by artist Gunter Deming, the brass plaques are placed in front of the homes of former victims. The plaques include information such as the victims' names, fate and date of death.

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

4 years

We are hiring! Come join us at Humboldt Berlin as a pre-doc (focus on political economy + violence). Great department, bustling city and lots of exciting research. DM in case of questions. Position is up to 6 years, so lots of time to write great thesis! Deadline is Dec 18 2019

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

3 years

EuroWEPS is back! We will meet on Dec 3 and discuss designs / papers with a focus on causal inference in poli sci. No presentations, just constructive discussions. Early career scholars are especially welcome to apply! Submission deadline is Nov 5.

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

1 year

@miguelmaria @melinscribe @miguelmaria and I are grateful for feedback. The paper is here:

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

8 months

EuroWEPS VIII is here! We'll meet in Munich on Dec 15 to discuss designs/papers with a focus on causal inference. No presentations, just constructive discussions. Early career scholars are especially welcome to apply! Submission deadline is Oct 10.

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

1 year

@miguelmaria In our paper, we collected the time and location of all nearly 10,000 Berlin stumbling blocks. We then exploit this temporal and geographic variation and correlate it with the AfD’s vote share across seven elections in local precincts (N = 2200).

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

1 year

@miguelmaria Using a variety of modern diff-in-diff estimators, we find a negative connection between stumbling blocks and the AfD’s vote share. Seemingly, the stumbling blocks reduce xenophobic voting. (Of course, this is not a randomized experiment, so update your beliefs accordingly).

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

4 years

Come join us for EuroWEPS II. We will meet in Berlin on June 3 - 4 at @HumboldtUni . Accommodation, food and a travel (subsidy) are covered. Submit your cutting-edge empirical political science paper by March 23. Full call here:

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

7 months

I feel a bit hesitant to share this data. It's a moment of complete shock, not a time to draw quick scientific conclusions. Still, it also felt wrong to not share this data.

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

1 year

@miguelmaria To commemorate the victims, to educate citizens about the Holocaust, and to ultimately honor Yitzhak Lamdan’s famous phrase “never again”, Berlin built a large memorial that opened in 2005. Millions of people visit the memorial each year.

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

1 year

@miguelmaria Can decentralized memorials affect political behavior? If so, for which party and how? In our preregistration, we focused on the far-right, xenophobic AfD. The party is explicitly opposed to Holocaust remembrance. Key leaders have called Germany’s memory policies a “guilt cult”.

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

1 year

Field work at -15 degrees 🥶 But stunning views of the Kyrgyz Tian Shan mountains! (We’re pre-testing the baseline for @EGAPTweets Metaketa 5).

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

1 year

@miguelmaria A short background: Berlin was the capital of Nazi Germany and an administrative center of the Holocaust. Across the city, tens of thousands of residents were abducted and sent to Auschwitz. Most victims were Jewish, but the Nazis also murdered other minorities.

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

2 years

We just wrapped up EuroWEPS V in Berlin. Terrific papers, constructive discussions and wonderful hospitality by @thehertieschool . Thanks to @simonsaysnothin for hosting us and to all presenters!

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

1 year

@miguelmaria But whether memorials “work” in reducing xenophobic voting is unclear. On the one hand, one may expect the memorials to create guilt and shame, and thus lead voters away from the AfD. On the other hand, the memorials do create backlash and are frequently vandalized.

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

1 year

@miguelmaria There is also some tentative evidence that the memorials, indeed, trigger guilt. For instance, blocks informing about survival (vs. death) show no negative correlation. But we want to explore this more (see also the experiment by @melinscribe ).

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

1 year

EuroWEPS 7 just concluded with a fantastic set of papers, constructive discussions and a great view. Thanks to @eui_sps for hosting us.

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

5 months

EuroWEPS 8 in a stunning location (former kings palace, no less) in Munich. Thanks to Jerome Schaefer and the Bavarian Academy for hosting us!

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

7 months

I should also mention that the effect is less pronounced among left-leaning individuals as well as individuals with a migration background.

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

5 months

Did you know that most famous German writers are East German? Below I plot the birthplace of famous authors (b. after 1800). Quite fascinating, given that population density and industrialization would predict otherwise. Any hypothesis why this is? Maybe @MauSteffen

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

7 months

We are hiring new research assistants in Berlin. Topics include settler colonialism, political activism, social norm diffusion. Interest in statistics and causal inference is key. A nice office in the center of Berlin awaits you. No German required. Happy to answer any questions!

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

4 months

@HeikeKluever @HannaSchwander Link to ad:

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

2 years

We're excited to host @mgoldenProf at Humboldt today! She'll present exciting experimental work on corruption. Our doors are open to anyone and the talk starts at 12pm.

Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

2 years

Humboldt's Political Science seminar series is back. Come join us in Berlin and learn about corruption, coalition formation, and globalization (and more). It's the perfect Tuesday lunch getaway. Our doors are open to anyone!

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

4 years

We realize that some PhD students were counting on the workshop to prepare for the job market. I therefore want to offer to provide feedback on papers / designs via email or Skype.

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

2 years

Excited to present new work on the origins of feudalism at @LSEnews . My last time at the LSE was 12 years ago as a BA student fretting over problem sets. I guess today I get to flip the classroom! :)

PSPE_LSE

@pspe_lse

2 years

🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️🙋‍♀️PSPE Seminar today🙋‍♂️🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️: Exciting historical political economy talk today with with @anselmhager presenting "On the Causes of Feudalism." It is at 2pm in our usual seminar room!

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

1 year

In a new paper, we show that rent control makes tenants *less* NIMBY. That is, rent-controlled tenants are more open to new construction. Evidence comes from Berlin, which afforded us two neat discontinuities in its recent rent control legislation.

James Medlock

@jdcmedlock

1 year

This looks like a fun entry into the discourse

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

7 months

For those wondering, the item is a 0-10 scale asking who is to blame for the conflict. Below is a regression. The conflict has shifted blame attribution by 0.7 points toward Palestinians (controlling for many variables).

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

2 years

We are also very happy that @EliasDinas and @Pavithra_Suri have joined EuroWEPS' organizing committee. Welcome on board! And we sadly had to bid farewell to @JODahlgaard who is on to new adventures outside the academy 🥲 Thank you for your incredible commitment over the years!!

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

3 months

Wenn die FAZ einen wieder maximal triggert

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

3 years

Job opportunity for all (East-)German social scientists and statisticians

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

3 months

Am wichtigsten: experts working on this sind Peter Selb, Simon Munzert, Lucas Leeman, Thorsten Faas and many more. I was just curious. Happy to be corrected!

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

5 years

Second day of EuroWEPS in Copenhagen. Fantastic papers, collaborative environment and pinecones for dinner. @CBScph

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

3 months

Gibt es Trends? Eigentlich müssten ja alle Institute gleich häufig das höchste Partei-Ergebnis schätzen. Sprich: mal hat Forsa das höchste CDU-Ergebnis, mal Emnid etc.. Das sieht aber nicht so aus. In 39% aller Quartale hat FG das höchste CDU-Ergebnis. Emnid lag nur in 6% oben.

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

1 year

@mgoldenProf @miguelmaria Thank you, Miriam. We don’t have indivual-level data (only voting data), so the guilt mechanism is just a conjecture. But some heterogeneity points into this direction (effects stronger when victims died as opposed to fled). And we’re currently designing an exp to get at it

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

3 months

Die jeweiligen "Top-Institute" der Parteien sind hier. Allensbach hat oft das beste FDP-Ergebnis (62%), Infratest oft das beste AfD-Ergebnis (45%).

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

3 years

Food consumption in the GDR: In 1987, East Germans consumed ~0.3kg of meat 🥩, 1 egg 🥚 and 40g of “southern fruits“ 🍌 (Südfrüchte) per day. Interesting variation across time.. (source: Statistisches Jahrbuch der DDR 1987)

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

3 months

Wichtig III: Varianz, on the whole, ist gering. Wir wissen auch nie die Wahrheit - das macht surveying so spannend! Wichtig IV: das hier ist nicht peer-reviewed. Code ist hier:

17_polling_bias

Shared with Dropbox

www.dropbox.com

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

3 months

Die AfD motzt ja auch gerne, da sieht man aber wirklich nichts. Wenn überhaupt wurden sie von allen Instituten vor 2021 überschätzt.

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

4 years

Given COVID-19 and its impact on public health, we decided to postpone the workshop until the situation has markedly improved. We intend to organize the workshop at a future date, and will provide a new call when we are in a position to do so.

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

7 months

@favstats @FabioEllger @miguelmaria It is the average answer at any given day. The sample size is roughly 500.

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

2 months

Und ich dachte immer, Moabiter sind die, die sich Kreuzberg nicht leisten können..

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

2 years

It’s been a great ride and we have to thank many people @swenhutter @DanBischof APSA attendees (esp. @AmaneyJamal , @RDancygier , and @kayserma ) and many, many more!

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

3 months

Zunächst: Die Schwankungen über die Institute hinweg sind gering. Dennoch gibt es auch Outlier. So hatte Forsa die SPD von 2006 bis 2016 konsistent niedriger als die Konkurrenz. Und seit 2021 hat Allensbach die CDU im Schnitt höher (siehe unten)

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

2 years

Third we show that society approves of left-leaning protests (more so than for right-leaning ones). So, again, larger protest turnout gives potential activists an additional incentive to take to the streets.

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

2 years

Why is that? Why, in other words, are left-leaning activists more likely to turn out when the own protest is large. We offer three mechanisms. First, we show that left-leaning respondents are more connected to their movement. So there is a social reason to attend.

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

3 months

Zuletzt die Frage, ob manche Institute stärker schwanken. Wo wird man eher “überrascht”? Ohne Rohdaten gucke ich die avg max Abstände zwischen Umfragen pro Partei pro Quartal an. Große Unterschiede gibt es nicht. Aber Forsa hat einen range von 3.1 Punkten, Allensbach von 1.4

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

3 months

Relevant zum Thema:

Bias and Variance in Multiparty Election Polls

Abstract. Recent polling failures highlight that election polls are prone to biases that the margin of error customarily reported with polls does not captu

academic.oup.com

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

3 months

Und die Schlusslicht-Institute sind hier. Forsa, wie erwähnt, hat oft die niedrigste SPD-Schätzung, Emnid hat die CDU unten und Infratest die Linke, etc.

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

3 months

Die FDP hingegen schnitt bei der Forschungsgruppe Wahlen in den 2000ern nicht besonders gut ab, bei Allensbach lag die FDP dafür aber relativ hoch.

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

2 years

Second, left-leaning protests are simply more fun (ie.., provide more “enjoyment value” to their supporters). So, again, the bigger the protest, the more attendance.

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

6 years

@ClaireAdida @o_garcia_ponce @laurenyoung231 @saadgulzar @jenniferbussell @aspaglayan @GarethNellis @dandekadt @NicoRavanilla Awesome. Congrats! @FlorianFoos , maybe a good time to revisit our EWEPS idea (or should it be Eur-WEPS)? ( @LucasLeemann , @alex_scacco )

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

3 years

What made this project challenging is that surveillance is usually hidden! Luckily, after much searching, we found data on secret police activities in Poland. Whats neat: the data is at the village-level. We were thus able to construct a panel of spy activity between 1948-1989.

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

10 months

Map of the Polish-Soviet war of 1920. It's eerie how similar the front lines are to today's #UkraineWar . History sure rhymes. (Found in the Frunze Museum in Bishkek).

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

2 years

Second, respondents *did* react strongly to the size of their own protest. On the political right, activists become *less* likely to protest when when their own group is large. But on the left: activists become *more* likely to protest when when their own group is large.

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

2 years

What do we find? First, turnout in the opposing protest does *not* matter. Neither on the political left nor right does larger turnout in the opposing movement affect potential activists’ protest intentions. So, people look at their own group!

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

5 years

@HeikeKluever @HumboldtUni Thank you, @HeikeKluever ! I’m thrilled to be joining y’all @HumboldtUni and contributing to Berlin’s bustling science community. (And also sad to leave @unikonstanz ). Eager to connect with fellow Berliner researchers, so the next coffee is on me!

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

3 months

Wichtig I: *Warum* bei Institut X Party Y öfter oben rauskommt, ist vollkommen unklar. Es könnte Zufall sein, am Sampling liegen oder oder.. Wichtig II: ich hab keine Rohdaten, ergo fehlen CIs. Auch machen Institute unterschiedlich viele Umfragen (alles ist aggregiert by quarter

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

2 years

Imagine you’re an activist who decides whether to attend a protest by your preferred movement. Does large predicted turnout make you more likely to protest? And what if there is a large counter protest?

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

2 years

Finally, it’s been so much fun to bridge the disciplinary gap between econ and poli sci with @cp_roth , @LukasHenselEcon , @johanneshermle

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

7 years

Historic maps made Africa big, today's maps (mostly) make it small.

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

2 years

Existing studies give us competing answers to these questions. Perhaps “the more the merrier”, so a bigger protest makes you want to protest, too. Alternatively, if the protest is big your impact is relatively small, so you may stay at home.

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

6 months

@Julius_Ktxt Interessant, dass die Grünen damals schon so stark in Ba-Wü waren. Macht Kretschmann weniger überraschend..

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

6 years

@JohnHolbein1 @nberpubs Starting to wonder what variable did *not* contribute to the rise of the Nazi party.

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

7 years

Great postdoc position at @WZB_Berlin . Focus on migration; open discipline; 3+3 years; exciting institution + city.

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

2 years

We then provided the activists with *true* *expert* forecasts about likely turnout at their own protest and at their counterprotest. Importantly, we randomized whether people got a small or large estimate.

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

2 years

@LWestheuser @HumboldtUni @MauSteffen @thomasluxberlin Herzlich willkommen!

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

4 years

@SolomonMg @ben_fifield @p_barbera Thank you! We've since repeated the study with N=2400 zip codes and find similar effect sizes (if a bit smaller, but precisely estimated). Working paper should be coming out soon.

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

6 months

@Julius_Ktxt Yes - @HeikeKluever , @AntValentim and @cornelius_mer have a paper on this:

Buying voter support for unpopular policies: Evidence from German nuclear power plants

How can governments ensure voters’ support for unpopular policies? Policymakers often have to implement policies that are unpopular in local communities, such as the construction of windmills or...

osf.io

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

2 years

In our article, we study these questions in the context of far-right protests and left-wing counter protests in Germany. We recruited potential activists on both sides of the aisle via Facebook ahead of two different protest-counterprotest interactions in Berlin and Erfurt.

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

10 months

@MauSteffen @AnjaNeundorf does great work in this realm.

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

2 years

What about the size of the counterprotest? A large counterprotest may make you want to turn out even more (go show em!) Or, it makes you afraid that there’s gonna be violence, so you may stay at home.

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

4 years

@HeikeKluever @krause_we @MariaThurk @JochenRehmert @FabioEllger @anthea_jeanne @lstoetze @HumboldtUni Welcome Werner! -Auf gute Nachbarschaft :-)

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

6 years

@robert_a_blair @SSRC_items Super innovative teaching concept!

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

6 years

@beccajoy84 Thank you! I’m very glad you liked it. @hemker_h was on the team, too.

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

3 years

@larsweisbrod 🙋‍♂️

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

6 years

Pearl: „All the impressive achievements of deep learning amount to just curve fitting“

Kevin Hartnett

@KSHartnett

6 years

Judea Pearl was a founder of the field AI. Now he has strong views on how the field went wrong. I interview him today in @QuantaMagazine

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

1 year

@michtorresp @j_homola @HumboldtUni @DYNAMICS_PhD @HeikeKluever Herzlich willkommen!

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

2 years

@nils_weidmann @rstudio did you try colab? it's not perfect, but should do the trick.

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

4 years

@ThomasMMeyer @JocMuel @HumboldtUni And welcome to the 4th floor!

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

1 year

@rahsaanmax @miguelmaria Thanks! The identifying assumption is parallel trends, which looks good (see thread). We also add time varying controls, and unit and elections fixed effects. But, who knows, maybe there is some unobserved variable that explains this. Do you have anything specific in mind?

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

4 years

We are sorry to announce that we are cancelling the call for papers for EuroWEPS II, which was to take place in Berlin June 3-4. We were very much looking forward to welcoming everyone to Berlin, and we thank everyone of you who has already submitted their papers and designs.

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

6 years

@andyguess @LucasLeemann Curious to hear if you think this also applies to geographic targeting on FB (my hunch is no)

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

3 years

We then linked this data to two forms of anti-regime resistance: Protests (Solidarnosc strikes) and sabotage. The two outcomes are key because the former is group-based, the latter is an individual act of resistance (think Jim Scott).

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

6 years

@polanalysis Hm, wouldn’t “half-blind” be better than non-blind?

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

6 years

@JohnHolbein1 I saw this paper presented. It’s great. But there certainly was a negative effect (5ppt, if I recall correctly), that would have been significant had the sample been bigger (it was only 350, afaik).

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

4 months

@tobiassauer99 Yes, we collected more data until Nov and the effect seemed to persist.

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Anselm Hager

@anselmhager

6 years

@JohnHolbein1 Sharpest cutoff seems to be E 96th Street. I lived on E 104 and the border was indeed astounding. Wealthy upper east side -> poor east Harlem.

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