We are currently in the midst of the largest rightward-shift in Silicon Valley politics that I have seen in my 20 years here.
Some of this is on the surface, a lot is below it.
At Facebook (in the early days), the code paths required to make the site run for whales (>5000 friends) was quite distinct from the code paths for the average user (<300 friends).
@elonmusk
The twitter experience is over-fitting for your issues and degrading for others.
In the early days of Facebook, I would interview potential candidates and they would tell me that Facebook was just a simple CRUD interface on top of a database. Or that it was a glorified blog. Or a contact list.
And yea, a blockchain is just a slow database. Probably nothing.
ANTI-patterns for startup engineering hiring.
Finding amazing engineers has *always* been hard but now feels like it is harder than ever.
I have spent a lot of time hiring engineers for Facebook, Dropbox and ~200 startups that we work with at
@SouthPkCommons
.
🧵👇
It’s now been 9-10 months since LLMs really entered the larger consciousness of Silicon Valley.
We went through the cycle of euphoria and are now catching ourselves for breath.
At this juncture, there are many who believe that LLMs are interesting but ultimately are an…
Technology right now and at this very instant is the worst it will ever be.
It will only get better from here on out.
The composability of software and the global idea sharing of the Internet makes it such that once someone has an idea, it is never going back into the bottle.
1/ web3 can often feel like a gold rush.
It's a useful analogy, but not for the reason many people think.
The key is what builders create for the long-term.
More on why
@southpkcommons
& crew are focusing the latest Founder Fellowship on web3. 🧵
The most common question I get from CEOs is to how to move and ship products faster.
They ask me how Facebook famously created a culture that moved so fast (and broke things).
Below are some memories from those days (1/9)
The original framing of A.I. was actually 'Augmented Intelligence' which is so much more appropriate to how AI will affect each and every one of us.
Machines make us vastly more intelligent and capable.
We are only just beginning to see human super-powers in every field.
VCs seem to have forgotten that they are in the risk-capital game..
We literally have to get back to funding the moonshots.
No amount of private banking or private equity fancy excel modeling will take the away the fact that investing in early stage startups carries a massive…
1/
@moxie
wrote a fantastic blog post about his observations on Web3 that really got me thinking about some underlying questions of centralization, protocols, platforms and lastly our ability to predict stuff in this space. 🧵
It’s wildly depressing to see wave after wave of smart founders just build more B2B SaaS software and hope that it works.
Where are the builders tackling problems for actual end users and consumers?
It is particularly depressing to see B2B SaaS software catered to the next…
The single hardest question at the pre-seed and seed stage for a founder is knowing whether to persist on the current product or to move on to the next idea. (1/)
There is a calmness amidst the intensity of Silicon Valley right now.
It reminds me a lot of 2010/11. A couple of years after the Global Financial Crisis. Mobile had been around for a few years but people were now getting what could be done with the platform. Companies like Uber…
Whenever I write code, I am struck by the fact that the network stack I am using contains bits written by someone 40 years ago 🤯.
Code is both beautifully consistent and predictable yet can be light and dynamic.
Teach your kids how to code -- this stuff is magic.
1/ Startups are absurdly difficult. The stars must align for even a chance at success.
The
@southpkcommons
Founder Fellowship gives founders the best chance possible.
Applications are open for $1M and the -1 to 0 support that's produced 145 companies worth $35B.🧵
Under-explored aspect of the LLM landscape: Who has access to proprietary data to train models??
OpenAI, Anthropic --> Nothing
Google --> Youtube
Meta --> Facebook and IG public content
Amazon, MSFT, Apple --> Nothing
I suspect this will be a huge factor in the coming year
The thing about San Francisco is that it's always been a big Boom and Bust town. A gold rush town that goes big and then crashes and then goes big again.
I have lived here for 20+ years (call me a native)
I get the strong sense that we are in the early days of a big boom cycle.
High tolerance for chaos and ambiguity is a key component for being a founder.
This tolerance seems to be set through innate wiring and also through life experiences.
But I think it can also be Learnt successfully by putting yourself into uncomfortable and ambiguous zones.
I have had the same gmail account for 20 years now.
There is so much life history, records, personal information, archival data etc. locked up in there.
I would very much like a LLM interface to this data source!
It's amazing to see CEOs of Indian heritage like
@satyanadella
,
@sundarpichai
and others lead some of the most important companies of our era.
The larger story though is that immigration is one of our nation's biggest strengths (and opportunity).
Congrats
@paraga
!
Told you we wanted to see applications from Indian founders
@southpkcommons
.
@rsanghvi
and I are incredibly excited to work with
@binnybansal
to bring the -1 to 0 approach to India.
More soon.
The energy around Web3
@southpkcommons
and the ecosystem more broadly is so infectious.
This feeling has been missing for a while. Of being on the Frontier. Of being pirates. Of truly not knowing what the answers are.
There are no playbooks here. Just time to play and build
1/ Why has web3 unleashed more widespread creative excitement than recent advances like Machine Learning/AI, SaaS or even Mobile Computing?
Artists, Governments, Financial Organizations, Software Engineers to name a few domains are all jumping in and participating.
My best piece of advice is this:
Find the idea you want to work on and the people you want to work with so that years later you will ache for the time when you poured everything into building something incredible.
There are lots of reasons to be bullish on India. The demographics, the Infrastructure buildout of the last decade and the easing of capital regulations to name a few.
The single most compelling reason though is the sheer energy and entrepreneurial drive that you can viscerally…
It's the most exciting moment in tech in a generation. Maybe ever. The ceiling on what's possible is gone.
So be insanely ambitious. Anything else is a waste.
We created the
@southpkcommons
Founder Fellowship for worldbuilders. If that's you, applications are open (next post).…
1/ How far can you go without formal engineering management? This might surprise some but the answer is: pretty damn far.
How did WhatsApp build a $20B company without any eng management?
Read below for details but the big reason is ‘Software eats the World’ applied unto itself
1/ The best way to move fast as a startup is to create a Total Ownership culture.
Everyone must feel empowered to fix anything while not having the system descend into chaos. Easy to say. Hard to do.
A 🧵 on how we did this at Facebook, Dropbox, Flipkart & now
@southpkcommons
When you are younger, you assume that there are adults who know things that keep everything running.
Surely there must be someone who has a plan.
Then you grow up and realize it's all rather slapstick.
The world is clowny. Don't overthink it.
Starting a company is harder than you think.
It’s rewarding too. But absurdly hard.
Most founders are unprepared for the deeply personal nature of the startup struggle.
You may aspire to be Atlas, but even titans suffer.
World building and story-telling is quickly approaching a lost art amongst startup founders.
The push towards building fast and iterating leads to underbaked products with no soul, identity or connection (yes, even for b2b SaaS).
Technology moats and network effects are harder…
Contrary to popular opinion, the ever increasing pace of technology hype cycles (AI -> SaaS -> Crypto -> AI etc. etc.) actually makes ideas *more* fragile.
It's easy to get distracted. Stay focused. It takes a long time to build something good.
Why are the Second Wave of Vertical AI companies going to feel radically different?
Why does Devin feel so magical compared to the first wave of AI products?
What's happening at the dataset, model and interface layers?
(1/)
I have spent the last 4 years towards developing a practical philosophy of life.
This has entailed spending a lot of time reading about Mindfulness, Buddhism, The Bhagavad Gita and Stoicism.
There is a lot to share about my learnings but the big one is about acceptance and…
The most fascinating aspect of ChatGPT is that it's performance and capabilities are **emergent** properties.
We do not yet understand (from first principles) WHY it should be able to have the kind of one-shot performance it does across multiple domains.
My best description of…
The world's most transformative companies often started with a SINGLE exceptional idea that was 100x better than the status quo.
But yet, I see investors filling out scorecards and dinging companies+founders on what they are LACKING.
Why do we obsess over the gaps? Because…
You are less likely than in the past to discover a venture-scale idea while working a full-time job or tinkering in your garage.
It’s harder to stumble on low-hanging fruit when the low branches have been picked.
Software has already eaten.
We are so much better as an industry when operating in greenfield spaces and there are non zero-sum dynamics.
You can Win. Others can Win. Win-Win all around.
Plus, it's just more fun.
Have I said WEB3 yet? LFG!
I have found that the best founders are always geeks about their particular technology, product and market.
On the technical side, they will have intuition about where the limits of the current system are. Whether something is limited by the laws of physics or by shitty…
1/Top-down (aka pick a good market, do TAM analysis etc.) or Bottoms-up (build and iterate) exploration?
This is *the* key question of the -1 to 0 journey.
Some observations from working with over 200 companies at
@southpkcommons
in the -1 to 0 phase.
Apps for the
@southpkcommons
Founder Fellowship close soon, on March 24th.
So let me make the final, simplest case for why this is the best way to start a world-changing company:
It is too easy to convince an investor to back an idea before you have convinced yourself. 🧵
There is something so meditative and magical about writing code and seeing it work.
Digital bits to silicon to lightspeed packets to create a product that is tangible.
We have the ability to create magic and fire as software engineers.
What a time to be alive.
1/8: Early stage founders: Rather than fixating on the competition, put blinders on. Channel your energy into what you CAN control. Your product. Your team. Your obsession with delivering immense value to your customers.
How Technical should a CTO/VPE be?
Should they be able to code up a storm? Have brilliant technical insights? Be the 'Chief Architect' of the system?
Or should they be amazing people managers?
@elonmusk
things that they should be pretty damn technical. I tend to agree (1/9) 🧵
There’s the individual dimension of capitalism: iconoclastic, heroic, entrepreneurial, risk-tolerant.
And then there is the bureaucratic dimension: corporatist, conformist, HRified, risk-averse.
Woke Capital is the latter. They don’t like capitalism, they like the worst parts.
Let me tell you something from experience:
You will never regret giving yourself the option to pursue your ambitions.
You will not regret attempts.
What you will regret are paths closed through inaction.
You will regret the choices you didn't give yourself a chance to make.
Web3/Crypto is often referred to as the 'Wild West' in terms of the way things operate etc.
Lots of parallels to Wildcat banking in the United States from the early 1800s!
Top-line for the SPC Founder Fellowship.
The low key highlight is I get to host a kickoff week in Sonoma & SF.
Big emphasis on the IRL experience now. The SF & NYC hubs are buzzing.
Can't beat the impact of surrounding yourself with the
@southpkcommons
community.
One of the best parts of working at a startup is making lifelong friendships that have been forged in the arena.
One of the greatest gifts I got from Facebook and Dropbox is a set of friends that I will hold dear for the rest of my life.
Super excited for this talk with
@eglyman
!
@tryramp
is one of the most impressive companies to emerge from the NYC startup ecosystem.
NYC builders, don't miss it! RSVP link below 👇
1/ The email reads: "Person A, meet Person B."
But at its core, it represents a vital element of what makes the Silicon Valley ecosystem tick. It's the lifeblood of our industry.
I'm excited to share some early results from a
@southpkcommons
experiment we started 3 years ago: SPC Fund I.
- Top 1% of all funds from our vintage (2018)
- Already returned 1x capital to investors
More on how we did it 🧵
I would be interested in seeing applications for the
@southpkcommons
Founder Fellowship from teams that plan to build companies in India.
For....reasons.
Great thread by
@cdixon
I am also coming around to the idea that Email (via SMTP, IMAP and POP3) is also an underappreciated hero of how things could/should work. Yes, it is hard to innovate on top of but I have *never* felt locked in, can still find emails from 20 years ago...
A recent criticism of web3 is that it isn’t actually decentralized, because there are centralized services in the mix, such as NFT marketplaces like OpenSea, and data availability services like Alchemy. 🧵
We're getting AGI and room temp superconductors and you're still wondering when is a good time to finally start what you really want to work on.
Stop waiting.
Postcard from London: A big difference in Silicon Valley vs. the rest of the world is that it’s not interesting or high-status to be rich — it matters how you got it and what you are doing with it.
There are 2 kinds of hires that are poisonous to building an early-stage company: Cynics and Activists.
Cynics because deep down they don't believe. Or they are good at poking holes. The reality is that you cannot infer just from 1st principles whether something is going to work
The best engineers, founders, execs and investors are taking the time to re-wire their productivity pathways to use AI tools/LLMs on a regular basis.
It is hard to retrain decades of training to use familiar tools but the other side is pretty dang interesting.
A big moral/ethical/political failing of every tech company was focusing on national issues at the expense of local ones.
Instead of focusing on social justice outrages, spend that energy on creating housing, ensuring local safety etc.
Politics begins at home. Support
@GrowSF
.…
Happy Birthday America.
As an immigrant, I will never take this country for granted.
There is no other country where I could have written my story as I have here.
She’s not perfect but is still the greatest country in the world. 🇺🇸🇺🇸
Startups feel more fun again.
Looking back on the last 2-3 years, building companies felt a lot harder than usual. It felt like we were all gritting our teeth and powering through. We kinda made it work but there was a lot less joy.
The reality is that startups without a deep…
1/ Following on From my Eng Recruiting thread from a couple of weeks ago.
The
#1
job to be done for a VPE/CTO at a pre-seed/seed company is hiring.
Below are my experiences from hiring 1000+ engineers at
@facebookapp
,
@Dropbox
and
@southpkcommons
🧵
I bet when we opened the first
@southpkcommons
Founder Fellowship back in 2020, a lot of people thought it was what we now call a 'zero interest rate phenomenon'
$400k for 7% pre-idea? Preposterous!
I'm glad it's not because we just opened applications for our next cohort.
We built
@southpkcommons
based on this insight.
You benefit immensely from surrounding yourself with remarkable people at the earliest stages, while still searching for an idea and still forming a team.
Take this advice seriously, even (especially) in -1 to 0.
My best piece of advice is this:
Find the idea you want to work on and the people you want to work with so that years later you will ache for the time when you poured everything into building something incredible.
In NYC you feel small no matter how big you are.
Being here means being in the presence of the grand ambition of many generations of people who believe in capitalism and the American dream.
Love this city.
1/ The tidal wave of lower valuations in public & growth companies has reached the earliest funding stages.
Burn-rate is the ubiquitous buzzword.
Even Google paused hiring.
But if you can stomach the risk, now is a fantastic time to become a founder. Some reasons why:
6/ I find this commentary somewhat naive in that it ignores how technology ends up weaving it's way through the next generation of products.
Most stuff isn't going to be cleanly in one world or another. It will be messy. Things will feel like they cross ideological boundaries
Applications for the next
@southpkcommons
Founder Fellowship are setting the fastest pace ever.
You can feel the acceleration.
Founders are excited to build.
If you're thinking about it, apply sooner rather than later!
We need to build a new web browser (or abstraction) that is agent/LLM optimized.
The HTTP/HTML protocols need to be extended to take into account that we now have a natural language interface to computers.
There's no avoiding pain as a founder, especially in the early days.
Starting a company is hard. It's going to hurt.
But pain is also a useful signal.
It's important to know the difference between Good pain and Bad pain in startups.
I had 3 people who left SF during the pandemic tell me today that they miss our weird, optimistic, builder energy.
SF is far from perfect but the vibe is real.
Facebook and Dropbox have a reputation for very strong and vibrant cultures.
This is not by accident. Both companies do a phenomenal job of hiring people who are strong culture fits.
Some thoughts and stories below on how we evaluated people for 'team fit' (1/10)
It’s fascinating how great inventors and artists are *constantly* tinkering and creating.
I recently read a book about The Wright Brothers and the most interesting thing about it was the constant dedication to finding a new wing design, revving on their motor placement, making…
1/ I built Facebook in the earliest days, led engineering at Dropbox, & helped dozens of companies launch from
@southpkcommons
And I cannot wait to mentor the next cohort of Founder Fellows.
Don't miss your chance! Applications close tomorrow ➡️
Some of Facebook's most formative moments were forged during the Global Financial Crisis of 07/08.
Our approach to this was to focus on building. Control what you can. Everything else is noise.
All the best founders right now are doing the same.
Focus and Build.
8/ The world is too complex to try to predict in any form.
Instead, I tend to think about whether the underlying ideas are useful and can be used. In that sense, blockchains, NFTs, DAOs, Defi etc. are super-interesting constructs that will be used to create interesting things
More Eng Recruiting Thoughts!
In this edition: 5 Tips on Engineering Sourcing (by far the hardest part of early-stage hiring)
N.B. This advice is tailored for hiring your first 10 engineers but should be broadly applicable
AI is revolutionizing the role of engineering managers! With LLMs like GPT-4, managers have 2 options: Become Super-managers™️ OR become hybrid IC/managers. This thread explores the implications. 🧵👇 (1/10)
1/ Assertion: Most Series A and earlier startups do NOT need any formal engineering management or team structure.
Engineering Management is a means to an end: coordination, communication, execution, team growth and happiness.
It is possible to do this in a decentralized way.
Sharing a lot about the startup idea maze recently with
@southpkcommons
Founder Fellowship applications open.
So I'm excited to host the legendary
@eladgil
on August 8th for what's sure to be an equally legendary talk on what we call... the squiggle.
RSVP below!
If you are in tech you should be either:
1/ Building bits/pixels/AI models/data pipelines OR
2/ Helping to run the company at the VP+ level.
If you are in middle management, you are going to be in a pretty tough spot in the coming years.
One of the hardest things as an immigrant is to your get your own story right. It can be confusing to live in multiple worlds and to have to span vast spaces in order to feel whole.
This is why spending time with extended family always helps me to understand myself
Both Warren Buffett and Andy Grove have reported spending upto 3-4 hours per day reading various information sources in order to be effective at their roles.
It's tricky to come up with an information regimen that is appropriate for your job but is a critical skill to cultivate
We would celebrate the first time someone broke something. This would be public like sending out a congratulatory email to all of engineering.
It was important to remove any shame associated with breakage. (2/9)
The best way to become an expert is to re-learn the basics over and over again.
Each run-through reveals more nuance and depth that deepens your mastery.