I have a proposition. As all politicians in the UK come from Oxford and Cambridge these unis need to force every undergrad to take at least 2 classes in macro and one in monetary and fiscal policy. The negative externalities of not doing it are huge
All this talk about making it possible for women with young kids to survive in this profession and every single year our main conference is after Christmas and NY. One, this is the time we are supposed to spend with our kids and not prepare frantically and two, NO CHILDCARE.
I would like to say thank you to the male economists that have been supportive of the sexual harassment debate now on Twitter. Showing your support does matter.
The new generation of current and future PhD female economists are watching!
If anyone says women can have kids and be on tenure clock they are just lying... Over the last month I have had hospitalization of kids constant doctor appointments and yet again today going for another one. Let's stop lying to young women. No you cannot have it all! It does suck
You know you are old when you teach masters students and say .. “as you remember during the global financial crisis …” and a student says “I was 7 at the time and don’t remember it.”
I had forgotten how inspirational my advisor's writing is. If anyone is interested in studying international finance you must read carefully Ken Rogoff's work. He is one of the few economists that I can say are truly "big picture" and hence extremely creative and inspiring!
(1/4) Remembering Emmanuel Farhi. I wanted to share another aspect of Emmanuel’s character — he genuinely cared about encouraging more female students to pursue macroeconomics. He really wanted to know how he could help and we had numerous conversations about it over the years.
1/3) Tenure dilemma: The tenure clock hasn't changed despite the fact that drafts have become longer and the acceptance rate in top journals has fallen. You are expected to do free service in the form of ref reports, organize conferences and do discussions on top of your teaching
I wish I could go back to my PhD years and not stress but truly enjoy all the time for thinking learning and research... This is the only advise I could give to PhD students and maybe when one day my kids grow up and I retire I can finally do that again.
(1/3) In this paper we show that the vast majority of exchange rate changes at business cycle frequency can be explained by lagged macroeconomic news ( a result inconsistent with UIP holding)…
It is an incredible honor to present at this IMF conference in honour of Kenneth Rogoff — the most incredible advisor and mentor I could have ever dreamed of having! Few probably know he is one of the main reasons why there are so many more women in international finance than …
Great line-up of speakers for the next Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference
@IMFNews
in honor Ken Rogoff. November 9-10, program and registration info here:
For female economists: Submit your paper to the 2024 ZOOM WE_ARE Seminar Series organized by CEPR and
@helene_rey
!
Please retweet and share with your female colleagues.
1/2 Today ends the first AEA without the participation of Emmanuel Farhi...an immense loss to the profession that most ( including myself) still find it hard to comprehend. If you missed the AEA session in his memory you can find the videos here in addition to the AEA website.
Difference between US and European unis: After a long day in the office with some bad news you can always rely on your Greek colleague to offer you a glass of Japanese scotch to make you feel better. Thanks
@EliasPapaioann2
This amazing conference in memorial of Emmanuel Farhi reminded us that he will be forever remembered not only as one of the most brilliant economists in our life time but also as loved and cherished by so many friends and students!
A terrific conference in the memory of Emmanuel Farhi gave all of us an opportunity to celebrate his life & work in his favorite city, Paris. Also great to see Emmanuel & my former students
@VStavrakeva
& Elisa Rubbo & friends.
(1/2) Yesterday marked the third year since we lost one of the greatest thinkers and economists in the profession — Emmanuel Farhi — who also was an incredible human being.
@drlisadcook
@and_joy_
This is absolutely horrible and if indeed a trend would imply that we will have huge problems recruiting female economists as it will be close to impossible for them to have children and survive the PhD and tenure track.
WE ARE IN, pioneered by the brilliant
@helene_rey
, whose goal is to increase the pipeline of women in economics, is going strong with another fantastic conference. Please apply
3/3) So when are we supposed to do research? At nights and weekends, they say...well for those of us with kids that is impossible. Can someone tell me how does this make sense unless we want a profession full of burned-out workaholics with no families?
1/2 Macro in the 90s — boring daily news besides some emerging markets crises and flawed RBC models ; Macro now — daily massive shocks and exciting new research on networks and the economy, financial markets, how to integrate deviation from rationality in our models and big data
We're looking forward to the 2021-22 Keynes Lecture
@CamEcon
delivered by
@helene_rey
: 'Is this Time Different? Financial Follies across the Centuries'. Join us on the live stream here on 25th Jan at 5pm:
#KeynesFund
The NBER YouTube channel just posted a series of truly fascinating interviews with econ legends! Here is with Anna Schwartz, November 19, 2001. She got inspired in 1931(!) to study econ by her high school econ teacher ! via
@YouTube
Macroeconomic theory is an art. As any art you need to practice a lot to become better but you are either born a genius artist or not. Emmanuel was truly one of these genius artists that perfected his skills through very hard work and left us with an incredible body of work.
Last Emmanuel Farhi’s AER paper. “This ability to combine careful logic with sensitivity to the context .. is probably nowhere harder than in macroeconomics. There are few in any generation who can do it with Emmanuel’s panache, and our field is much less interesting without him”
It was an absolute honour and privilege to celebrate all the achievements and mentorship of Kenneth Rogoff at the IMF 24th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference with so many of my advisors, mentors and former classmates!
This is very dangerous and is starting to look too close to MMT for my liking not to mention they are playing fire with inflation expectations.
There are other ways to deal with the high sovereign debt that don’t endanger CB independence
Now that we can’t travel I wish I could go back in time and tell my old self to enjoy all the beautiful conference destinations I went to instead of working in the hotel room.
Couldn't agree more and the first thing I emphasize to all PhD students is even if you want to do only empirical work you need to take plenty of theory classes as the whole value added of economics is to use theory to guide the empirical analysis.
A super interesting presentation by
@IvanWerning
on a joint paper with Emmanuel Farhi — demand externalities meet extrapolative expectations! Definitely teaching it in my PhD class this year. Ivan Werning on Taming a Minsky Cycle via
@YouTube
1/3 I am thrilled to announce that we have a fantastic PhD student on the market in international finance, Tsvetelina Nenova
@TsvetiNenova
.
Using frontier techniques and big data, Tsveti asks fundamental questions in her job market paper such as: ...
Happy single parent day! (this is literally to those who are single parents and to those who have a partner that barely helps (!))
Please keep your zoom seminar/conference option open to not discriminate against this group of people -- not surprisingly predominantly women.
Just voted in the Bulgarian elections! It is even more bitter sweet as I voted in my home town in what I hope will be a monumental election for my country! It is high time we elect a non corrupt competent government after decades or rampant corruption!!!
While I will not engage with the person who posted this I think this post makes it crystal clear why we should all support
@jenniferdoleac
initiative and retweet her tweet.
When you publicly promote a certain group unashamedly. Not because of their talent, their effort, their merit. But because of the group’s biological constitution. How did we end up here? It’s deplorable. Two wrongs doesn’t add to one right.
“The only significant gender difference in promotion to associate professor is in economics, where women were 15 percent less likely to be promoted after controlling for publications, citations, and research grants “
Helene Rey
@helene_rey
, Sinem Hacioglu
@sinemhacioglu
, Jenny Tang and I are hiring a RA to work with us on an exciting exchange rate project. If you know of any Masters/PhD students based in London that might fit the bill let us know!
There is nothing better than new Twitter friendships!
@acocotero
thank you so much for the incredible hospitality. I can attest that besides beauty this city has an incredibly talented crowd of Central Bank economists! Looking forward to more adventures at SED with you guys.
MBA teaching season starts again. The only thing I can rely on is that there will be some major macro shock yet again I have to incorporate! Macro is never boring these days!
2/2 . If you knew him and would like to make a video remembering him to be added to this YouTube channel please let me know.
Remembering Emmanuel Farhi via
@YouTube
Join us in beautiful Cartagena for an exciting session on exchange rates together with
@liliana_vvarela
@mukhin
.
I am excited to present a new paper with a fantastic team on Asset Managers' currency derivatives and non-derivatives exposure covering the universe of UK funds.
Among many cool papers come and check out our paper with Jenny Tang which shows that the exchange rate macro fundamentals disconnect is dead and it’s time to move away from writing models that try to generate it
I am sad to have to post this and is definitely second best solution to the problem BUT if you have been harassed by someone (sexually or other ways) and you feel they will be vengeful and not give honest evaluation of your work you can let editors know in the cover letter.
(1/2) This! It is incredibly hard to want to be in a profession with such power imbalance. Siri I am so sorry you had to experience it. If you get assaulted or harassed by someone in a company at least you can usually go to a new one and HR takes it more seriously. In academia,
Because i was so panicked I had no future in econ. So when you see a senior male with all the power in the world together with multiple student how can your reaction be «shes an adult» or whatever. Were talking about a world with Extreme inbalance where men Are in power
One of the key pieces of advice by Milton Friedman (a theorist who was driven by data!): If you think you have an interesting macro empirical fact you'd better make sure it works for many countries and over different periods of time. via
@YouTube
It would have been nice to see theory AS important as evidence in modern times. The obliteration of theory from top journals I think will lead to the demise of the value added of the profession. Data scientist and AI are better at data mining than us! Plus it’s no fun!
How economics has changed through the decades since the 1950s, as seen in the paper titles of the economics journals AER, JPE and QJE.
Paper by
@hugomoises
and Brice:
Ht
@DurRobert
Proposal on improving the publishing process in econ. Back in the day papers had a section with limitations and future research — an incredibly important section for policy makers and progressing scientific research. Nowadays researchers avoid it as the plague as referee 2 will…
Congratulations to Claudia! All women have to thank for documenting carefully the discrimination women and, in particular, mothers face at the work place, among many other contributions.
Historically, much of the gender gap in earnings could be explained by differences in education and occupational choices. However, this year’s economic sciences laureate Claudia Goldin has shown that the bulk of this earnings difference is now between men and women in the same
You should have asked for extensions!! Things need to change. Working like crazy at any cost including the well-being of your family doesn’t produce the most important creative research! It’s about quality job quantity and this profession needs to get it
A great summary of how complex and fascinating international finance is and why knowledge of solid international finance theory is needed to study the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on corporates, financial firms and the real economy, more broadly.
I must admit I stretched myself thin by teaching too much this year but at the same time it was so nice to hear that students appreciated the fact that now they understand macro and current events so much better. It never gets old to see the “aha” moment on their faces.
(1/3) Ended up reading Keynes today. Stumbled upon this gem: "The social object of skilled investment should be to defeat the dark forces of time and ignorance which envelop our future."
Today is the submission deadline for the all-female WE_ARE_IN conference organized by CEPR and ECB (Thank you
@helene_rey
for launching the great initiative!) P.S: For anyone who claims this is "unfair" first spend one week researching all the biases and inequalities females face
I am sure I am not the only one who ends up figuring out a proof in my dream and wakes up at 4am to type it… right? or at least I hope I am not or I seriously need a vacation but have no time for one.
Recently some of the most exciting policy research comes from BIS.
@BIS_org
European central banks particularly BOE can learn something from them how to attract and retain talent. Here is a new interesting study
Normal parent : I need to sign up my kids to coding classes to give them the best start in life. Me : I need to sign them up so they can do my code for me one day ( I am still using matlab and Stata and apparently becoming “old school” as a result)
Today is a monumental Election Day for Bulgaria! We finally have a party on the ballot full of very qualified people with high moral standards. Matters not just for BG but also EU. Send us your prayers :)
Tesla‘s stock price rose by 10% today. Why? Because Adam Jonas at Morgan Stanley put out a new analysis arguing that Tesla‘s AI supercomputer Dojo is very valuable. No new information. Just analysis. Yet, market moved by $85B! 1/4
(2/2) the person will keep refereeing your papers, decide on your tenure and literally block you from even being a part of it. Until this power imbalance changes there is no hope. This is true for all types of harassment (not just sexual) which in economics is very prevalent!
I had completely forgotten how bad EJMR is and the recent debate made me remind myself. The language used on that website by many is what every parent would want their kids never to hear. Do we really want these people educating college students and for us to pay them as parents?
“Women are asked more questions during a seminar and the questions asked of women presenters are more likely to be patronizing or hostile.” Guess what they could barely find any women in macro and refer to the field as most aggressive. Not surprised one bit
Sexist behavior in economics seminars: documented and quantified. To keep in mind at every economics seminar and conference (are there similar data for other disciplines?).
#EconTwitter
All high debt Eurozone economies continue to reduce public debt at a pace exceeding that required by the existing fiscal rules - even France (just about) 😱
Among them, Greece and Portugal stand out - both have fully eliminated the pandemic-era debt surge. Impressive!
@EmilyNix100
@jenniferdoleac
Another thing that doesn’t get mentioned is the sexual harassment from students to faculty or TAs particularly in business schools and more junior faculty. Many times the perpetrator just receives a slap on the hand from the administration due to reputation concerns.
(1/3) This is incredibly important to read and understand. Conventional monetary policy prior to the GFC is NOT the same as conventional monetary policy now.
This article hints at why it is so important for CBs to have the correct model of time varying money multiplier.
Money still matters for monetary policy, says Executive Board member
@Isabel_Schnabel
. The strong post-pandemic rise in broad money growth was a harbinger of the subsequent inflation surge and may have contributed to entrenching adverse cost-push shocks
Happy International Women’s day! Women rock and we need more women in every aspect of the policy decision process as welfare will be strictly improving :)
Public service announcement to those still at SED: If you are flying out of Cartagena and is pouring that day budget another 2 hours. There were so many traffic accidents that the 20 min drive became 1.5 h and I had to walk the last 30min to the airport as roads were blocked.
Key article and a problem that requires rigorous optimal policy analysis — media tends to call everything liquidity events, even simple lack of demand or solvency issues. Understand what shock is what isn’t easy, tempting policy makers to “over intervene”
@IvanWerning
@straightedge
(1/2) The incentives in the profession are some of the worst for welfare and fairness. Pre doc is definitely one and I have been saying this will lead to even fewer women at tenure level due to biological clock but also careers are determined by a few editors who often push…
use it to reject unreasonably or make the authors do 100 extensions. So after the editors accept the paper on the final round they should then make the authors add this section and they should commit to not withdraw the acceptance.
For those of your that say the pre doc problem worsening the biological clock problem for women can be resolved with having kids during PhD here is your answer … system is broken let’s not pretend will can fix it with patches
Not having childcare is the biggest obstacle in this PhD program. My stipend alone isn’t enough to cover even a portion of costs 😭 PhD parents— how tf do you do it?!
@Momademia
(4/4) Needless to say I immediately knew he was right. I am so glad to see he had so many more female students in recent years. His death is a monumental loss to the profession for so many reasons. His genuine desire to become the best mentor to females in macro is just one more.
(3/4) He replied “I wouldn’t want to treat my female students differently as I know they are as capable as my male students and want to push them to achieve their potential and being honest is very important for that.“
The importance of political economy shocks for asset prices. It’s not sufficient to simply follow and interpret macro or firm specific news releases. One needs deep understanding also of the political economy dynamics.
People across the world complain about a lack of *good jobs*.
@rodrikdani
and I discuss the need to revisit our conventional welfare state policies which, on their own, are inadequate to address today’s inclusion & inequality challenges. Short thread [1/N]
2/2 I am excited about the future of academia and econ! Now if it can only attract and retain more women and minorities. The biggest structural barriers are still there and some have gotten worse.
As always
@rkoijen
and
@motoyogo
have produced a very interesting paper where the institutional details are taken seriously and matter. We need more of these in AP
The main challenge ahead will be for BOE and other central banks to distinguish liquidity events in sovereign debt markets from lack of demand. Observationally, they look very similar and calling the later the former will damage CB credibility.
New paper:
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐀𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐓𝐡𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐥𝐝 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐒𝐮𝐫𝐠𝐞𝐬
- attention jumps up in high-inflation periods
- inflation response stronger+more persistent, esp. at loose MP
More here:
Comments welcome!
Additional depressing forecast: with all the pre docs and biological clock not having disappeared my prediction is we will see even fewer women over time ( plus tenure clock who has always contributed to very very few senior women in the profession).
Look no further than the crash of the pound today against the euro to see how markets interpret who got a better economic deal out of the Brexit agreement...
@JumanaSaleheen
@LHSummers
@OBR_UK
We shouldn’t forget about self fulfilling equilibria in currency crises. From that prism overreaction isn’t a well defined concept. If a run on gilts makes UK jump to a crisis equilibrium fundamentals deteriorate even if not so bad to begin with. This is what politicians forget.
Congratulations Diego! Diego is one of our super star students!!! Keep an eye for him in a few years !! Truly impressive economist and incredibly humble on top of that.
For my generation of economist that were in grad school in the midst of the global financial crisis this trio had the status of gods. One had to look hard to find any usable models on financial intermediation to bring into macro (bar Kiyotaki and Moore) So well deserved!
BREAKING NEWS:
The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has decided to award the 2022 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel to Ben S. Bernanke, Douglas W. Diamond and Philip H. Dybvig “for research on banks and financial crises.”
#NobelPrize
For those confused why ECB and BOE will have to and have raised rates despite an imminent recession this is the answer: the need to regain credibility that they can deliver low and stable inflation.
My prior is that if one advanced economy CB is tough on inflation other CBs are also more likely to be tough. Two potential channels: 1) exchange rate spillovers via price of imported goods 2) pressure to follow the “crowd” due to reputation concerns of CB governors
Anna Schwartz didn't obtain her PhD till she was almost 50 despite having already done what was later evident incredibly influential work simply because she wasn't given credit for it! The economics profession is incredibly lucky she didn't give up and persevered!
The NBER YouTube channel just posted a series of truly fascinating interviews with econ legends! Here is with Anna Schwartz, November 19, 2001. She got inspired in 1931(!) to study econ by her high school econ teacher ! via
@YouTube