Doesn’t this El Salvador News also create a tax haven if it’s legal tender then you can’t throw cap gains on it.
That’s the more interesting aspect- it creates pricing pressure on govt taxation....
This interview happened in 1994.
James Goldsmith was talking about the side-effects of globalization.
We are simply watching the end of a 30 year cycle from capital to labor reverse now.
That is the real reason bonds are selling off.
Watch Jay Pow stumble over this question of why they are buying $40 billion a month in mortgages when there is a dearth of supply in housing.
Yikes
@RudyHavenstein
@LynAldenContact
Reason 3) When the transaction cost of producing media goes to zero, Mainstream media does not have pricing power for advertising and battles real experts like yourself who produce better content. It’s an arbitrage of real experts vs. lazy narratives for the passive consumer.
For all those thinking crypto is a bubble like
@TheStalwart
, how do you reconcile all the best engineering minds from the best schools being attracted to the space? Can they all be that wrong or is it just that price got way ahead of value in your opinion?
Can’t wait until nonprofitable tech investors realize US cannabis has the same top line growth but they are profitable with 40% EBITDA margins while trading at dirt cheap valuation and no supply chain issues…Big rotation coming?!
@todd_harrison
@TgMacro
#MSOS
"Bitcoin is equivalent to a default insurance on a basket of fiat credit.
You need to own bitcoin as a hedge to the regular calamities of the fiat system"
When High-Yield Traders are calling out Fiat...watch out!!
Source:
@PrestonPysh
@FossGregfoss
Just a reminder that Germany will be opening $1.8 Trillion dollars of their spezialfonds to invest in Bitcoin starting tomorrow...
Has that already been discounted? I've noticed that digital assets haven't tended to price these types of things in the past. 🧐🧐
Stay tuned!
This is a snapshot of Austin, TX real estate market, yet
@federalreserve
is still buying $40 billion a month in Mortgages and the stock market is at all time highs...
🤡🤡 Show
@RudyHavenstein
$QQQ down -1.5% and $BTC up +6% while US 10-Year Yields are rising to 1.5% again
If $BTC wants to become an inflation hedge and not a high growth tech stock, it is divergences like today that are huge for digital assets
Let's see if it holds
@Blockworks_
@JasonYanowitz
Bitcoin 'time to buy' ad was banned in the UK for being irresponsible
meanwhile an ad to get a Barclay’s credit card (33.9% APR) in on the radio
Sure, let people spiral into debt & make 34% off them, but call buying the best performing asset of the past decade irresponsible 🤡
Is it possible US listed Chinese companies were just a Trojan Horse to misallocate capital in order to slow US growth in a Cold War scenario??....
@muddywatersre
@Jkylebass
Are we watching a generational wealth transfer into digital assets?
Every marginal dollar from the Fed and fiscal is finding its way into digital assets now
An afternoon coffee thread...
@Blockworks_
@JasonYanowitz
Want a masterclass on where high-yield bonds and bitcoin collide?
Brian Reynolds walks us through the history of how the HY bond market (current YTW of under 3.8%) is now financing bitcoin.
@FossGregfoss
and
@lisaabramowicz1
will enjoy this one.
Goldman closed their USD Short call right as
@SecYellen
dropped a fiscal bomb
$GS is the financial equivalent of ponytail guy in Good Will Hunting
There's more value from a free newsletter
@Blockworks_
than paying millions in commissions to suits who are wrong all the time
This was from last Friday's
@OnTheMarginPod
and I think is the main macro driver of asset prices now and why your average economist and fundamental analyst has been way off about the economy & markets.
This phenomenon I think drives all asset prices because its largely a
The total market cap of publicly traded large cap US Multi-State Operators is ballpark ~30-40 billion and
@rsandler21969
runs $8 bln alone. The penetration of institutional money into MSOs is ~4%. Best risk-reward in investing right now?
@todd_harrison
@TgMacro
@aaronvalue
Who is Kjell Inge Røkke?
Did he just tip the bitcoin narrative from a high growth tech stock to a true inflation hedge?
His move may symbolize a bigger movement from globalization to decentralization?
My latest here...
@Blockworks_
@jack
This is a must watch. Brian doesn't do any media but agreed to do this interview.
It will open your eyes to how the market actually works. H
He is the best in the business!!
Monster news in Digital Assets as legendary macro investor
@DTAPCAP
launches a $200 million fund to invest in growth stage cryptocurrency companies, the first fund of its kind! -->
@Blockworks_
Unpopular opinion...
If we look back at this period of history from 2008-2021,
in 15 years we'll realize we sacrificed real long-term growth & progress by investing in capital-lite scalable businesses that just reallocate wealth from the lower classes to the rich.
Few understand this. Fed is buying $40 Billion a month in MBS bc it helps keep mortgage rates low which then drives the price of housing 📈.
Q:Why do they want housing higher?
A: Higher real estate prices means higher property taxes without actually raising property taxes
So Turkey bans $BTC.
At what point does the banning of $BTC become synonymous with running your countries finances into the ground?
The next country to do it joins Erdogan!
Throwing a bet at
@coloradotravis
that the US Dollar is about to fall here over the next 3 weeks.
DXY Index finishes over 93 and I lose. If its under 93, I win.
If I lose, I'll buy him his favorite bottle of wine or liquor.
@JackFarley96
hyped me to do this;)
A thread...
Fantastic thread.
Yea...inflation is “transitory”
If the capital to labor cycle has just started, imagine how much worse it gets.
If you are a boomer you should be asking yourself, “why do I own so many bonds?”
The fact this was released on a Saturday night should tell you it was strategic to hit the most illiquid part of the digital asset tape.
Currency wars have commenced.
In a way this should show how scared the legacy institutions are of crypto.
Risk assets across the board are priced to perfection.
Even a hint at tightening earlier has both bonds and stocks down together.
Can you say long volatility?
There's no downside hedge in the market anymore, it's a glorified ponzi-scheme....
This chart shows everything about the rotation from capital to labor.
Bitcoin is now an inflation hedge and has detached from the VC backed unprofitable tech narrative.
It's the only asset outperforming Lumber!
Check out AMZN & ARKK.
@Breedlove22
@APompliano
Mind Blowing thought from
@PrestonPysh
What if the yields in stable coins are the real interest rate and the Fed is artificially suppressing the real rates?
Just an observation...
Every Digital Asset firm I know is hiring.
Every legacy bank I dealt with has too much compliance to innovate.
It's literally impossible to innovate for them.
That
@GaryGensler
wild-wild west speech was very bullish if you juxtapose it next to what's happening in China.
He just gave crypto a silent stamp of approval and said he'll protect investors.
What's not to like??
Crypto is becoming a growth tool for the US economy!
@IceCapGlobal
The Fed owns 35% of the market.
The BoJ owns 45% of their bond market and JGBs have days of not trading.
We are in soft yield curve control…
Kind of surprised that this chart isn't getting more attention. Real average weekly earnings are down bigly giving the rise in CPI. Will this end up slowing retail sales growth and the economy?
There is a fascinating divergence right now.
$ARKK is plummeting and the long duration narrative stocks are tanking as inflation picks up.
Meanwhile, $ETH is actually rising and $BTC is holding in there too.
Digital assets are now inflation hedges rather than future tech.
Bitcoin is up 6% while Nasdaq is down -1.5%
$BTC has solidified itself as an inflation hedge.
There have been too many divergences by now.
In fact, $BTC may now be a bet against central banking and centrally planned economies in general...
@Blockworks_
@JasonYanowitz
Best advice I got from a salty trader with a raspy voice and smokes a pack a day.
"Stay long bitcoin until your mother-in-law asks you about it. Then sell."
If you are short credit (or are long credit protection) you are LONG Vol.
#btc
is credit protection on Sovereigns. Hence you are LONG Vol if you are long
#btc
Volatility always takes the staircase down, but the elevator up. LONG Vol is the smart trade. Most are short vol...
If you watch comedy closely you can see the social and demographic narratives changing before your eyes.
This has 4th turning written all over it
@HoweGeneration
My favorite John Burbank line is "“Last price is a liar, [real] price is an equilibrium of liquidity.”
How does this relate to bitcoin and meme stocks?
A Thread..
I'm not against the metaverse per se, but anyone else find it concerning for the future of humanity?
Thousands of years of biological hard-wiring to be social & physical animals disrupted seems like we should do more research on it.
Especially if Zuck is driving it...
There’s 10k reasons to be bullish on bitcoin. This is top 3 reason…
“Recent graduates of the University of Miami School of Law who used federal loans borrowed a median of $163,000. Two years later, half were earning $59,000 or less.”
Source:
@WSJ
#generationalarbitrage
Umm, anyone else sensing that the bond bubble is bursting or is it just me?
Corporates and High-Yield can't find a bid with commodities ripping like this.
@TaviCosta
@TeddyVallee
Thoughts?!
@DougKass
If it is not an access/custody problem then how do you explain TLRY and CGC trading over $100 mln in volume while the ENTIRE US MSO space trades 1/3rd of that per day? The MSOs are cash-flowing and growing revenues and LP's are burning money....
US financial policy is now "Made in China".
If China is the growth engine for the world and it is slowing, that flows through to US Treasury yields.
The irony is there is no credit stress in the US, while Chinese HY Is breaking down.
Are we watching the great Decoupling?!
Translation of this thread:
As long as the rest of the world is addicted to US Dollar Debt, I'm going to launch the most explosive fiscal stimulus plan ever embarked
We are going to reset the imbalances by taxing the rich and corporates
@TaviCosta
nailed this...
Though it was a different time, I empathize with the enormous weight they faced.
Our current juncture is no less significant—what we do in the coming months will have profound impacts on the trajectory of the global economic order, & lead us to the next century of prosperity.
.
@BTCization
dropped out of college at 20 and pursued his passion after digging into Bitcoin.
We talk about:
Gen Z financial literacy
The student loan bubble
College brainwashing
His macro framework on $BTC
Why $BTC serves as a long volatility hedge
Amazon is underperforming Corn (yes the commodity!) over the past 6 months by nearly -30%
What does corn say about the cycle from capital to labor?
Does it also hint at a portending debt crisis?
Is American society is tearing itself apart?!
In our latest podcast called
#GenerationalArbitrage
, we dig into the causes killing our economy and social fabric.
Our guest today
@EpsilonTheory
is a true lone-wolf thinker and real leader.
Check it!
.
@nayibbukele
's adoption of bitcoin is fascinating thru the lens of
@jperkinsauthor
"Confessions of an Economic Hitman"
Is centralizing power thru endless US dollar/Chinese debt in its denouement?
Will bitcoin be the alternative more emerging markets will take?!
@jackmallers
This interview with
@M_Millerman
and is a MASTERCLASS on contemporary Western Culture and how we've seen this story before.
Why do we need to understand German Nihilism in 1941, right wing anti-liberalism and why we should listen to Leo Strauss, find balance and embrace Plato
You could write a book about the ironies of trying to raise capital for Documentary for Socialism on one of the greatest Venture Capital platforms ever created. Gotta love it
@RudyHavenstein
@SantiagoAuFund
@Convertbond
Most humans default to addictive behavior.
Many CEOs of this era would rather exploit that addiction than try to incentivize it in other healthy ways.
It makes for a more efficient business with better margins, but a society with horrible values and coping mechanisms.
Apple breaking its 200-day moving average today and food prices making new highs, this chart is worth pondering over...
Are we in a brave new world, but nobody seems to notice?
Capital allocation is telling you something is different.
Find out more in the newsletter tonight!
Your weekly macro/crypto dose:
• Bitcoin coming to hundreds of US Banks
• Goldman's new crypto trading team
• Citibank's Bitcoin interest
• $BTC outperforms Cathie Wood's ARK ETF by 70% YTD
Question for
@RaoulGMI
@JulianMI2
@LukeGromen
Have we crossed a maginot line where treasury yields fall so low relative to inflation that it makes leverage explode higher, fueling a super bull market?
Phrased differently->Treasury yields falling = no longer a bearish signal?
You know what's fascinating about this Blackstone deal to buy Home Partners of America for $6 billion...
After these huge companies like Blackrock and Bstone buy up all the residential real estate, it will be too systemically huge to ever let real estate prices to drop again...
Honest Question...
What year did we cross the rubicon where agreeing with huge institutions who control information became the righteous path?
The 90s had Rage Against The Machine and 2Pac calling out truth to power.
What happened to the artists? Are they all in crypto now?
Long Texas & Short California in two charts. Cullen Frost Bank (TX Based) vs. Silicon Valley Bank (CA Based).
5 Year chart show the blow-off top in CA VC in Nov of 2021 and movement of capital into TX, plus the kicker of the O&G market.
@JackFarley96
@MikeIppolito_
.
@Tyler_Neville_
produces very thought provoking content. Keep up the good work.
#btc
needs experienced market pros who think OUTSIDE the FIAT ponzi box.
@stevehanke
has never managed REAL RISK for one day in his life. His "chair" is soft. His spine is softer.
#firehanke
Gotta love unfunded pensions handing taxpayer money over to $MSTR so that
@michael_saylor
can funnel it into a new financial system.
Get ready for the "sub-priming" of bitcoin soon....
This is the best arb on the planet.
Color: $MSTR new HY issue
Upsized US$500mm. Order book over US$2B. Priced below guidance 6.125% (vs 6.25 - 6.5% talk)
101.5 bid on the break (syndicate short??). This is a good new issue and my gut says they could have upsized substantially more.
#btc
One of the trademarks of dying industries and institutions is that telling the truth becomes sacrilegious inside them.
There are too many entrenched incentives to keep things the same.
A thread on mega-corporation psychology...
Tonights newsletter-Food prices are the linchpin that could burst the global debt bubble
"[The Arab spring] was a direct result of desperate people that became more hungry than scared"
-Peter Thiel
@world_affairs
speech, 2013
@Blockworks_
Hat tip
@ttmygh
& Russell Clark
Watching legacy institutions die before our eyes is fascinating.
A generational shift is happening.
Digital assets growth looks the opposite of this, it’s not a coincidence.
Source:
@axios
This interview happened in 1994.
James Goldsmith was talking about the side-effects of globalization.
We are simply watching the end of a 30 year cycle from capital to labor reverse now.
That is the real reason bonds are selling off.
The longer the Fed waits to smash long duration bond yields, the faster it will expedite the generational arbitrage from CRE to BTC.
I.E. if yields rise any further, institutional investors will start asking themselves why they hold “risk free” treasuries.
What will become the
JUST IN: JP Morgan sells a Chicago apartment complex at a massive $80M loss
The 19 story apartment building at 850 N Lake Shore Dr sold for $80M, 43% less than the property's previous sale
JP Morgan paid $140M in 2016 for the 198 unit building, which was an all-time high in
27 people from JPMorgan subscribed to our newsletter last month.
Today news leaked that they’re launching a Bitcoin fund.
I wish I could share data on the other financial institutions subscribing right now.
Big things coming 😳
.
@Nexon_America
is a Japanese gaming co that disclosed today they purchased $100 million in bitcoin.
Journos failed to articulate the magnitude of this news similar to when Norwegian billionaire Kjell Rokke purchased bitcoin for his company,
@Seetee_io
A thread...
As the US realizes that fake Chinese IPOs were a trojan horse to cause a misallocation of capital in US Markets. That capital may finally be allocated more judiciously in the US...
@muddywatersre
@Jkylebass