Tom Haddon @TomH_Analyst Twitter profile

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

2 years

Some agitation today after media stories about low wind, blackout actions etc - take a step back and remember the transition isn't over. Is it low wind were the turbines are? Yep Fast forward a few years and we have turbines in the pink bit, and connection to the green bit

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

2 years

Narrator: "Ross thought it would be a lot more, but it wasn't"

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

8 months

If I were you I would download this report so you can laugh at it for much longer than the 13 hours it is going to exist before they realise they have completely stuffed the numbers by confusing TWhs with TWs. ...the fact it got published is amazing. Hilariously amazing.

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

2 years

My word. This is the most perfect take down of fracking in the UK I've ever read. Pity it's written by a biased 'eco zealot' like the bloke who founded Caudrilla and is a huge advocate of fracking.

Fracking won’t work in UK says founder of fracking company Cuadrilla

Chris Cornelius says geology is too challenging and government’s support is merely ‘soundbites’

www.theguardian.com

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

2 years

There is a very interesting situation coming up in European energy markets. A small🧵 To set the scene: Germany has said storage is filling ahead of expectations which suggests that those government mandated buyers are close to dropping out the market.

Germany: Gas storage filling up faster than expected

The nightmare scenario of a cold winter without access to heating seems to be off the table, according to Germany's economy minister, while Russian gas now accounts for less than 10% of Germany's...

www.dw.com

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

9 months

Not sure this is really being picked up in a lot of commentary on how the UK's power system is changing rapidly. So let's be clear: The UK's primary power source - gas - is now forced to operate at the same level as when the country was shutdown for most the year.

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

8 months

This isn't being picked up in a lot of commentary on how the UK's power system is changing rapidly. So let's be clear: The UK's primary power source - gas - is now *GENERATING LESS* than when the country was shutdown for most the year. (Yes, I will do this every month)

Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

9 months

Not sure this is really being picked up in a lot of commentary on how the UK's power system is changing rapidly. So let's be clear: The UK's primary power source - gas - is now forced to operate at the same level as when the country was shutdown for most the year.

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

1 year

Very funny. Why would someone add 3,000kWh to their electricity bill to remove 12,000kWh off their gas bill? It's a real mystery.

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

1 year

Is it 1945? Is it a Lowry painting? No, it's just my street during a gas price crisis. The real life example of what a "households are using 15% less gas" headline can really mean. (Other examples of what it means are probably worse than a short lived uptick in air pollution)

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

10 months

I've got a new game. It's a bit like pin the tail on the donkey but it's called 'pin the arrow on the wind outturn forecast when you think Andrew Neil will tweet about wind output in the generation mix'

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

2 years

So we might be passing a peak, but we're on a plateau, a plateau that is miles higher than we are used to and the only way to get off that plateau is to get off gas.

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

2 years

Today is a good day to show why the North Sea is a source of natural resource that just about any other country would kill for and why it's so critical to maximise the comparative advantage it gives us. (colours are wind speed: green/lighter = quicker)

Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

2 years

Do I sense the chance of a wind output record going?

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

11 months

I don't do much in water, not my bag really. So I can't wait to learn how you bankrupt a supposedly highly regulated, guaranteed return monopoly business.

Sky News

@SkyNews

11 months

BREAKING: The government has begun drawing up contingency plans for the collapse of Thames Water amid growing doubts. Sky's City Editor @MarkKleinmanSky gives more detail on his exclusive story. 📺 Sky 501, Virgin 602, Freeview 233 and YouTube

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

4 months

The roll out / complete and utter domination of solar PV in the energy mix means every other tech is going to *have* to live in a solar PV world. No negotiation on that one. Easy for wind, ok-ish for gas, fear inducing for coal & potentially lethal for large scale nuclear.

Justin Guay

@Guay_JG

4 months

Wow. @solar_chase is projecting a 🤯 574 GW of new build solar this year building to *880GW* by 2030 To put that in perspective the IEA net zero scenario calls for ~1TW of solar AND wind annually by 2030 Looks like solar is the workhorse we need for a fighting chance 👀

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

11 months

Big news. In fact, *HUGE* news. The Telegraph has discovered (the decades old) practice of demand side response. Stop. The. Presses.

National Grid urges factories to cut electricity use amid fears of winter crunch

Heavy industry in talks with network over scheme that would compensate businesses if they switch off

www.telegraph.co.uk

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

1 year

Germany net injecting gas this week. In December. During a gas supply crisis. Putin did not see that happening.

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

8 months

Welcome to the party Dogger Bank A. The first few installed turbines start to feed power into the grid.

World’s largest offshore windfarm project starts powering UK grid

First of 277 turbines goes into operation at site that will produce enough energy for 6m homes

www.theguardian.com

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

6 months

This evening is going to be incredibly hard for the energy system to manage. No, not because of cold, still weather and high demand. Because of the incredible levels of smugness that will arise from people charging their PV fed batteries for free* and exporting for £4/kWh!

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

3 years

Reading an article on the energy efficiency market for SMEs and while the article makes sense - I've been staring at this graphic for the last 30 mins trying to work out what it means... I'm hoping it's a magic eye trick and the message will appear if I stare long enough.

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

3 years

OK, I'm going to bite. Never thought I would have to 'fact check' someone like @DaleVince when I'm more used to doing this on fossil fuel lobbyists, but here we are. See below for a thread with a few observations:

Dale Vince

@DaleVince

3 years

Here’s my column in the @Daily_Express - worth reading, especially for those who think the campaign is mad (but only saw the logo) or think i’m back on the weed 😂

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

4 months

I hate to break it to the nuclear bros out there, but sometime soon a long duration form of energy storage is going to turn up and blow the need for huge amounts of nuclear, out the water. God knows it has a decent incentive to do that with a £200bn prize out there.

Francisco Beirão

@fbeirao

4 months

The expected costs of Hinkley Point C Data as of 2016, when capex was not far from initial value - £18.2 bn vs £17.9bn; latest update is £31bn to £35bn At current prices, how much will the bill exceed £200 billion?

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

5 months

I've said this a few times that we can all sit around and point out the various bin fires in the UK energy policy landscape but in some areas the UK is out front doing UK things.

Department for Energy Security and Net Zero

@energygovuk

5 months

The world's longest land and subsea electricity interconnector went live today spanning 475 miles between 🇬🇧 and 🇩🇰 The new cable has enough capacity to supply electricity to up to 2.5 million UK homes with cheaper, more secure energy 🏘️ Read more 👇

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

2 years

Energy policy might be a raging bin fire in many aspects, but the last decade has produced something unrecognisable from what was thought to be achievable back in 2012, even for fleeting periods such as today.

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

1 month

The amount of responses along the lines of "iT wAS oNlY aN hOuR, lOl uNreIiaBlEs!!!" If only people understood the technical advances made to get to the grid being able to function for one hour with such low fossil fuel, and how it holds whether it is an hour or years on end.

Simon Evans

@DrSimEvans

1 month

NEW ANALYSIS ⛰️🔥Fossil fuels fell to a record-low 2.4% share of British electricity, for 1hr, earlier this month 📉Until 2022, it'd never been below 5% 📊Record 75 half hrs below 5% in 2024ytd 🎯Grid manager NGESO says its on track for 0% next yr 1/

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

1 year

Great example of the increasing 'power' of offshore wind this morning. Currently conditions are fairly windy out at sea with wind dying fairly sharply before landfall so we see Hornsea 1/2 going great guns (Orange, ~80% LF) with older, nearer to shore farms at around 25%.

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

5 months

Now, as the UK electrifies heat, our peak may well shift more to the morning, but guess what? Despite being 20 miles apart we are an hour different - so even then our peaks will be differentiated. Interconnectors rock. More please.

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

5 months

You may have noticed it's rather cold at the moment, and forecast to stay fairly cold until late or end of Jan. Due to this gas prices have surged... At least that's what logic would tell you. In fact they opened about 5% down this morning..why?

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

3 years

The reporting from day one at #cop26 is both interesting and depressing. So many write ups of how India's pledge is disappointing because it's '20 years too late' - what garbage. Look at the details wrapped up in that transition - it's astounding levels of renewables and change.

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

2 years

It's a blow by blow account of all the barriers that makes fracking pointless here. I know the government knows all this but it's still chosen to dedicate resources to peddling the nonsense to placate lobbyists, at a time we need to be focused on real solutions.

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

2 years

Share a picture that tells the world you love the energy transition without telling the world you love the energy transition. Windy, sunny and warm at the same time. Let the good times roll.

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

2 years

Heard a quote on the radio from the PM "this country is in an insane position in having to pipe in electricity from France" That is a level of ignorance I find distasteful. Interconnection is vital to decarbonising the power sector, not a weakness (FYI below was yesterday).

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

1 year

Electricity system stress equals the Culture War coming through incredibly strongly this Monday morning, which is, oh so tiresome. The Culture War doesn't help anyone, apart from some grifters, so try not to participate.

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

2 years

@MerrynSW Would you like some context? c/o @KetanJ0

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

2 years

Never miss an opportunity to post these beauties so you can see what's powering a big ol' record of 20.9GW of wind power.

National Grid ESO

@NationalGridESO

2 years

The wind record continues to tumble 🌬️🌬️🌬️ For the 🌟first time in UK history🌟 we can confirm that wind has produced over 20GW of electricity!!! We’re waiting on further data to confirm the final figure but it’s clear we have a new record

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

2 years

Does it mean we can talk about an energy crisis in past tense? NO. The energy mix in Europe has *structurally* shifted. No one is going back to Vlad for supply, so it means expensive marginal LNG for now and continued struggles in terms of ability to pay for many of us.

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

2 years

Actually, I'm pretty safe. Twitter probably won't exist by then so I can make predictions with impunity.

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

5 months

You look at this and think: oh no, France will require imports during the peak, what about the UK interconnectors and our demand at peak? Well, let me let you into a little secret on why the UK/FR interconnectors are great...

Emeric de Vigan

@Emericdevigan

5 months

Next week's cold snap in numbers (GW): Peak Demand: 85 ❄️ Nuclear: -49 ☢️ Wind: -5 🌬️ Hydro: -14 💧 Gas: -8 🔥 Coal: -1 ⚡ Biomass: -0.5 🌿 Fuel Oil: -1 ⛽ Outcome? 6 to 7 GW imports required. Will be no problem

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

8 months

Stolen from Private Eye via LinkedIn (sure I'll get sued at some point). Did not realise the Telegraph had hired Jonathan Leake as energy editor. The phrase 'not even trying to hide it anymore' comes to mind.

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

2 years

But as I said: weather. We get an early onset of cold weather in October/November then this scenario goes out the window but currently, it’s looking like we are at a peak in European energy pricing (*yikes calling that*)

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

2 months

I can't claim to understand some (most) of the chemistry going on here, but what I can grasp is the numbers. Holy moly. When you get a bit down on the energy transition progress, stuff like this is a bit of a pick-me-up.

Tom Randall

@tsrandall

2 months

Tesla co-founder JB Straubel has built an EV-battery colossus in the scrublands of Nevada. He spent the day giving me the first look at everything @redwoodmat has been building. It starts with *30 acres* of old batteries headed headed for recycling 🧵

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

1 year

Never used it but I see this site referenced a lot, especially when Germany is low wind/PV and certain types point that out... But the data is just rubbish. Currently reporting 7am UK wind at 7GW (really 14GW) and gas at 13 GW (really 6GW) - is it that bad for all of Europe?

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

2 years

...and no, my little example doesn't solve everything. Also in that future there will be more and diversified storage, abated firm generation, more interconnection (possibly to Africa!?) and a whole host of other technologies to help. Transitions don't happen overnight.

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

6 months

This is an utterly fantastic interview which as far as I'm aware contains the best description of international hydrogen trading hype I have encountered: "thermodynamic turd" C/O @MLiebreich

Hydrogen hype: 'History will have a good laugh' at us - Halifax Examiner

Hydrogen hype is ramping up in Nova Scotia. EverWind Fuels CEO Trent Vichie recently told the Colchester Municipal Council that his company’s proposal to build massive new wind facilities in the...

www.halifaxexaminer.ca

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

1 year

To the "We're only 2% of emissions, China laughs at us on Net Zero" brigade. No mate, they are transparently gearing up to dominate the next industrial revolution. If we wait for China to decarbonise first, we lose. If the morality doesn't work for you, try the economics.

Lauri Myllyvirta

@laurimyllyvirta

1 year

Electric vehicles get a special mention under supporting consumption. "Building a new energy system" and carbon neutrality are, perhaps tellingly, mentioned under industrial policy: "forge new competitive advantages in the process of implementing the carbon neutrality target".

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

2 years

@AkshatRathi Two thoughts: 1. Is this measuring crude oil? i.e. refinery utilisation could be unaffected but product exported elsewhere 2. New cars don't always push out old cars, takes a long time for the fleet to fully churn, maybe 20 years, probably still five years from big oil demand hit

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

7 months

Oh great, now we have a tidal wave of nonsense with everyone (deliberately?) missing the word ‘maximum’ and implying this is the new ‘price’ for offshore wind. Let’s unpack what is actually happening...🧵

Boost for offshore wind as government raises maximum prices in renewable energy auction

Maximum price that other renewables projects can receive in the next Contracts for Difference (CfD) auction has also been raised.

www.gov.uk

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

1 month

It looks as though the full power of Hornsea is starting to make an impact as 2024 wind is comfortably up. Yes it's been a bit windier but you get more bang for your buck as it's so rarely curtailed, being not in Scottish waters. See the tweet below for more detail on that.

James T

@twallin_james

1 month

Ok - I just need to get this out there. I've done a whole load of work on this. It's a page with energy yield estimates for every single wind farm on the Balancing Mechanism. the code for it is here: it's public ...

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

4 months

I know I shouldn't promote this but Net Zero Watch stuff is just so juicy sometimes. This is actually real. I'm not joking, they published this as a serious UK energy policy view. The Second World War reference is just Chef's Kiss for the 'drunk uncle at a wedding' vibe.

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

2 years

@jimwaterson The 3 day week is incoming for retail/service/leisure businesses. Not enforced like the old days, but due to having no way to recover fixed costs during the slow(er) days of Monday - Thursday.

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

2 years

This means that there is a fair amount of gas flowing into the UK/EU (which might come as a surprise) and actually storage won’t be able to keep it up all too long. Of course low demand and benign temperatures playing their part here too.

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

6 months

I cannot get enough of this video. It's a piece of performance art. The staging, the lighting, the pose of the gents in the foreground. If he said "nice heat pump you have there, would be a shame if something was to happen to it", I wouldn't be surprised.

Gary Smith

@GMBGarySmith

6 months

I'm in Redcar, where last week the government abandoned trials of hydrogen for home heating. Scrapping these trials puts the future of the gas industry and tens of thousands of jobs at risk. Politicians must be honest about the realities, and the exorbitant cost, of heat pumps.

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

10 months

And who says people in the energy industry don't have a sense of humour? The PM's visit to Peterhead yesterday. Outstanding.

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

2 years

…but, we are still heading towards a shift in energy markets as I suspect Vlad’s extra squeeze might not be all that effective as we are only a matter of weeks away from Freeport coming back to market and as such could offset the last Gazprom vols:

Freeport LNG aims for November restart at fire-hit Texas plant

U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) producer Freeport LNG aims to return 85% of production from its fire-hit Texas plant by late November and achieve full operation by March, the company said on Tuesday.

www.reuters.com

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

2 months

The wind is blowing, the sun is (periodically) shining, temps are warm(ish), the small nuclear fleet is broadly not knackered, and it's a brutal afternoon for the UK's gas fleet. Zero OCGTs running and even the CCGTs are quiet as a church mouse. Visual c/o @TerraVolt_UK

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

8 months

Everyone looking at X-Links and being charmed by ideas of huge renewable and battery storage capacity when the real meat of the project is really about building a huge HVDC cable manufacturing factory.

Adam Bell

@Adam_Grant_Bell

8 months

Especially for cable, the European market is rather tight, so there's an argument that some capacity would've come here anyway. But this was not guaranteed. /3

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

8 months

And guess who else, also completely rubbish at energy markets analysis is pumping it? Fantastic stuff. Absolutely made my day.

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

2 months

This really is going at a rate of knots now which is fantastic when you think how each gram is actually harder to achieve than the one before. Would also like to see this trend as high up in political discussion as the ultimate (net)zero carbon grid goal as well.

National Grid ESO

@NationalGridESO

2 months

On 15 April at 1pm, Great Britain achieved a new low carbon intensity record of 19gCO2/kWh, beating the previous record set on 5 April of 21gCO2/kWh. 🍃 Learn how we’re getting closer to a zero-carbon electricity system. 📽👇

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

3 months

Fire suppression systems on these things are really impressive, inclusive of totally sealed containers that are continually monitored and at the first hint of fire are flooded with inert gas so it literally can't take hold. But these people don't care.

Cleve Hill solar farm battery storage application rejected

Councillors voted against the proposal after nearly four hours of debate following local opposition.

www.bbc.co.uk

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

5 months

The French peak is typically in the morning due to more electrified heat and hot water requirement. The UK's is in the early evening as we cook dinner. We are able to help each other's peaks!

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

2 years

Oh, and if anyone is interested in why I highlighted those two areas specifically (apart from it being windier there today, duh) because: Viking Link: Celtic Sea Floating Wind:

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

2 years

@EdwardGLuce @IanDunt Would be a great point, if it were true. Natural gas barely moved in the power mix. Nuclear more than compensated by renewables (plus edging out hard coal).

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

9 months

In great news for me, a long weekend away from work meant I missed the mother of all culture wars (re)breaking out over offshore wind. Laughable takes ranging from the death of offshore (lol) to the death of ALL renewables (LOL) Here's my take: the CfD regime worked well.

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

3 years

How many times have we got to see this shrieking response to a potential policy that in no way says what is said here? Banning new boilers is in no way forcing people to rip out existing boilers. It is saying when your boiler dies, you will replace it with another technology.

GMB Union

@GMB_union

3 years

Ripping out existing boilers across 24 million homes across the UK is utterly absurd. It will lead to heating chaos for millions of people and general resentment towards the UK’s drive to net zero.

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

1 year

We need to have a bit of appreciation for interconnectors today/this evening. For most of the summer the UK ESO has been sweating gas plant to send power to France (nuclear down) or Norway (low hydro reservoirs), and when the UK is in need...well, look below.

Imports - GB Grid

@UK_Imports

1 year

GB Grid: #Imports are supplying 6.05GW (13.73%) out of 44.09GW #Exports : 0.30GW Interconnectors: France: 2.72GW Ireland: -0.22GW Netherlands: 1.01GW Belgium: 0.82GW Northern Ireland: -0.08GW Norway: 1.33GW System Transfers: Scot-Eng: -0.27GW North-South: 2.67GW

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

10 months

I have never seen such a hysterically perfect allegory for the relationship between capitalism and environment. The car = capitalism The field = the environment People pouring cans of red bull on highly flammable fuel to prevent the fire = governments

Voice of Europe 🌍

@V_of_Europe

10 months

An American blogger decided to take a ride through a field in a Ferrari at top speed. As a result, the dry grass caught fire and burned the $400,000 supercar. The fire also destroyed a Chrysler Pacifica minivan that the filming crew was using.

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

3 years

1) "Boris Johnson wants to take away your gas boiler" Stop trying to make this into some weird 'milk snatcher' argument. It's silly, no potential policy wants to take away your gas boiler. The @GMB_union tried this the other week - very boring now.

Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

3 years

How many times have we got to see this shrieking response to a potential policy that in no way says what is said here? Banning new boilers is in no way forcing people to rip out existing boilers. It is saying when your boiler dies, you will replace it with another technology.

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

3 years

3) "All we have to do is replace fossil gas with green gas" Ah the old 'no disruption, no change to your life' point so loved by gas networks. Any route to Net Zero means eliminating fossil gas AND huge upgrades to energy efficiency. Claims keeping boilers negates EE are false.

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

7 months

"Heat pumps don't payback versus the cost of a boiler" Yes, true, but it's purely because of distortions put in place by energy policy choices (some good, some bad) However, policy distortions don't last forever, but physics does i.e. the 3-4 HP CoP figures won't go away.

Jim Grace

@mac_puck

7 months

The UK has by far the highest ratio of Electricity price to Gas price. This is a result of Tory Government policies: 1. Gas for electricity incurs a Carbon Tax, whereas gas for boilers does not. 2. The price of ALL electricity is set by the price of Gas-fired electricity. 2/

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

7 months

Silly, silly take. A capacity market (in UK terms, as this is what it is) structurally breaks the relationship between capacity and utilisation. This allows coal plants to sit idle and will be a strong contributor to China's emissions sliding in future.

Richard Meyer

@RichardMeyerDC

7 months

China has announced billions of dollars in subsidies for new and existing coal-fired power plants. As the world works to reduce greenhouse gases, the single largest contributor to global emissions (Chinese coal) just got a huge boost.

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

2 years

Pricing has already reacted – prompt (near term) contracts have cooled off, down some 30% today, slightly less so the further you go out:

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

9 months

I can't wait until Andrew Neil discovers what the capacity market is, how it is awarding 15 year contracts to gas plant (now and will continue), and that he has actually no idea what he is talking about.

Andrew Neil

@afneil

9 months

Of course I know it. What I don’t get from you or anybody else is what a credible mix would like in 2030 or 2035 that does not include gas.

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

7 months

I think I am now in a position to call this prediction as right.

Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

1 year

Assuming nothing crazy happens in France, I'm making the prediction right now we're going under 100 TWh of gas generation this year. Potentially *well* under as well, if other factors go the right way.

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

3 years

2) "The idea is for everyone to have a heat pump" There's no policy for everyone to have a heat pump. Nope. Doesn't exist. In fact we're all awaiting the Heat and Buildings Strategy which will outline a MIX OF HEAT TECHS. Heat networks, biofuel, heat pumps, hydrogen all there.

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

2 years

As a side note: Putin has stepped in (as predictable as night follows day) to make sure that the pressure is still being applied. He's previously done this with NS1, as soon as storage got ahead of target, now wheeling out the same tired hits again...

Gazprom says it will halt gas supplies to France's Engie, cites lack of payment

Russia's Gazprom said on Tuesday it would fully suspend gas deliveries to major European utility Engie from Thursday in a dispute over contracts, a move which will deepen concerns about Europe's...

www.reuters.com

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

2 years

Alternative headline: "To manage a local network constraint power was secured via an interconnector which is exactly how it was supposed to work but oh yeh, there's an energy war being raged by Russia so prices are quite high" Do I get the sub editor job?

Rachel Millard

@RachelMillardAS

2 years

Britain forced to beg Belgium for power to keep the lights on

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

2 years

I don’t expect this to have much of an effect on retail gas pricing, but we could see some relief in electricity pricing in the UK as gas plant that isn’t long term tied into certain mechanisms can leverage prompt deliveries of gas.

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

8 months

Another funny thing about this is, you know the £1 trillion figure usually quoted by bad faith analysis? Well that appeared, out of nowhere, in a letter from HMT to No10. It's never been explained, never been detailed. The author here outdid that by 450% and didn't even flinch

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

2 years

A selection of current energy efficiency schemes operated by suppliers: E.ON: Have some socks OVO: Hug your dog Octopus: A £1m multi-month prize draw where you get entries in return for doing tangible things like adjusting your boiler settings and draught proofing.

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

3 years

6) BONUS: An addendum from me on one thing he doesn't mention, and @DaleVince do try to balance, you might like it, is that keeping our gas boilers means keeping our gas appliances and polluting our homes. I don't think that's a great idea.

Your gas stove is polluting your own home. Go electric | Brady Seals

Gas stoves can produce air pollution levels indoors that would be illegal outside

www.theguardian.com

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

3 years

@DaleVince I look forward to it. A circular fact checking session is exactly why this platform was invented, afterall.

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

1 year

In other news, this morning I figured out how to type a '€' symbol using the keyboard. No more Googling "Euro symbol" to copy and paste. Productivity +435%

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

2 years

The interesting situation: we're on course to return to there being gas in the near term, but significant risk premiums on longer term agreements (akin to before NS1 was cut to 40% or 20%), because who knows that the weather will do (used to be Russia but it's played its hand)

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

22 days

If solar PV is starting to make itself felt on the South African grid, you know a few things to be true: 1) Components are easily available 2) They are scarily cheap 3) Installation is unbelievably simple And because of the above: 4) It will take over everything, everywhere

Wietze Post - South Africa

@WietzePost

25 days

Eskom's Solar Duck Curve has appeared. This is what it looks like in the first year. Many days with a dip in demand around noon. Also note that the evening demand has decreased a little, due to batteries. Nighttime/early morning demand is down, due to batteries.

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

6 months

I'm old enough to remember when the 2021/22 battery / lithium price increase meant energy storage was doomed. Also remember the time polysilicon being pumped in 2022 meant solar PV was uncompetitive. I look forward to offshore wind takes in approx one year from now.

Shanu Mathew

@ShanuMathew93

6 months

"Battery prices are back to a declining trajectory in 2023, after an unprecedented year of increases in 2022. @BloombergNEF 's annual battery price survey has found that the volume-weighted average price for lithium-ion battery packs dropped to $139 per kWh in 2023, a 14% decline…

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

9 months

2) Government has declared war on the CCC. All of the *made up* stuff now scrapped (meat/flight tax, bins, car sharing), this morning is pinned on the CCC. Gov looked for a scapegoat and turned on their (independent) advisors. Not great for how policy decisions should work.

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

7 months

When I am energy market King, there will be no more chat about turning lights off or switching stuff off at the plug. It's all time wasting nonsense. The only game in town is anything *that changes the temperature of anything*, consumers need to know where to focus.

Utilita

@UtilitaEnergy

7 months

Flick the switch… YOU COULD SAVE UP TO £24 A YEAR!💡 #SaveLikeDave & keep those £££s in your pocket by turning lights off when you leave a room. For more ways to save, visit

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

3 years

@DrSimEvans Keep fighting the good fight on misinformation. Still, I am in the camp that even if crypto / bitcoin only used a drop of juice, it would still essentially be a waste as it is going into what appears to my untrained eye to be a *whispers* pyramid scheme.

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

6 months

It's amazing how much of the European energy crisis throughout 2021 into 2022 was actually a symptom of French nuclear problems rather than Russian gas market aggression, but it kind of just skirted under the radar for a lot of the time.

EnAppSys

@enappsys

6 months

🇪🇸ES / 🇫🇷FR: (Montel) Spain-France 2024 Capacity Auction Clears Eight Times Lower than Previous 2023 Record. An annual auction for 690 MW of power capacity from Spain to France for 2024 cleared on Tuesday at EUR 16.16/MWh, eight times lower than the record EUR 132.45/MWh for…

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

8 months

Oh god, we're doing the whole rewriting history thing again. Sigh. Europe (notably Poland & Romania with ~66% of Europe's shale 'reserves') went hard on attracting over every single big US shale player. They came, they prospected, they left.

Javier Blas

@JavierBlas

8 months

Wasn’t Europe against fracking?

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

2 years

Remember, our anti-energy transition 'friends' tell us China is laughing at the UK because we invest in high cost, useless, inefficient offshore wind. All the while China invests in....oh, hold on. Maybe they are onto something?

Simon Evans

@DrSimEvans

2 years

Wow – China just built more offshore wind capacity, in 2021 alone, than the rest of the world had managed in the last 5yrs put together Its 26GW now accounts for half of the world's 54GW total Also, it added twice as much in 2021 as IEA had forecast in…December 2021

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

3 months

The challenge is, with BTM solar PV economics being so good, especially for commercial, being 'not dumb' is not going to prevent this. So you throttle the economics or ban rooftop PV and stop businesses getting double digit % savings on their bills to protect nuclear...why?

Xiao Wang

@xiaowang1984

3 months

hopefully we won't be dumb enough to let this happen

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

3 months

Looks like the changes to grid connection queues are starting to have an effect. One BESS project I've had the privilege of seeing behind the curtain on has had its date bought forward by 5 years. Brings it well before 2030 which is great news as it is potentially a BIGGIE.

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

11 months

Every turn of a wind turbine, every photon on a PV module, every bit of water running down a mountain pushes gas out the merit order. Does it do it perfectly? Noooo; constraints, -ve prices, subsidy, intermittency, storage etc all challenges, but they don't stop the first bit.

Jess Ralston

@jessralston2

11 months

We're only halfway through 2023 and renewables have already saved the UK buying & burning 92TWh of gas Equivalent to: - 7.7 million homes heating for a year🏠 - 106 LNG tankers🛳️ More British renewables (like onshore wind 👀) = less dependency on foreign gas imports

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

3 months

Absolutely fantastic post. As I've said before, it's going to be a solar PV world and the rest of the energy system is going to have to find a way to live in that.

Jesse Peltan

@JessePeltan

3 months

I don't think people appreciate the dimensions solar is improving in. Conversion efficiency isn't the full story. Yes, conversion efficiency doubled (~10% -> 20%) in the last 20 years, but silicon use per watt fell by 87%! (16g/W -> 2g/W) Longi now has cells that use just half…

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

2 years

My biggest take away is that @MartinSLewis has the ability to carry out DDOS cyber attacks on the retail energy sector.

Greg Jackson

@g__j

2 years

To all the conspiracy theorists... *No* energy companies have taken meter readings offline. Right now, we have 2500 calls waiting. On a normal busy day, it'd be 150. Yesterday, we increased the number of servers we us by 250% to help with the expected load.

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

3 years

5a) We are electrifying transport, that means upgrading the grid, will mean lots of renewables. Guess what melds quite well with transport? Yep, heat in the day, charge vehicles at night. We build capacity for multiple uses, his numbers assume ALL investment for heat. Wrong.

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

1 year

Dinner time in January is when we are supposed to be talking about peak demand putting stress on the electricity system and the gas fleet doing the heavy lifting. Instead we currently have ~80% of the fleet sitting idle. Welcome to the opening act of the energy transition.

Gas - GB Grid

@UK_GasEnergy

1 year

GB Grid: #Gas is generating 4.13GW (10.50%) out of 39.35GW

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

2 years

I've just come up with this and I'm quite proud of the analogy: This stat is the equivalent of stating that there is only enough M&Ms to feed Europe for 1 minute and 21 seconds. Batteries are not a system, like M&Ms are not the food supply. Nonsense from Bjorn, as per.

Net Zero Watch

@NetZeroWatch

2 years

"All the batteries in Europe can store power for just 1 minute and 21 seconds of the continent’s average electricity demand" says @BjornLomborg . Fracking is the pragmatic answer for cheap energy & complete energy independence. #CostOfNetZero Read more:

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

4 months

One thing policy makers need to consider as gas prices in Europe continue to slide downwards is that the main driver has been demand reduction. The biggest lever you can pull to prevent future crazy spikes (that will happen as LNG influence increases) is to push gas out the mix.

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Tom Haddon

@TomH_Analyst

3 years

I don't think I've tweeted this in a while so here you go, for old time's sake: The energy transition will happen faster than you think.

Simon Evans

@DrSimEvans

3 years

ANALYSIS The UK car market is changing fast 🔌 28% of sales now come with a plug ⚡️ pure EVs at 19%, rising rapidly ⛽️ less than half are conventional cars 📉 overall sales -25% in 2yrs (!) 🚗 petrol cars -50% in 2yrs, diesel -75% 🚘 diesels just 5% of market data: @SMMT 1/

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