US carbon dioxide emissions hit a 27-year low last year and are projected to continue to decline, the result of increased use of natural gas, renewables, and energy efficiency.
I really liked
@NatBullard
's excellent slide on how energy sources have scaled. But I wondered what would happen if I included U.S. shale gas.
You'll notice that I had to extend the y-axis a bit.
Brutal:
"In Europe, natural gas is about five times more expensive than in the US. Right now, it’s cheaper to buy ethylene, a building block for plastics, in Texas, and ship it across the Atlantic for further processing in Europe than producing it at home."
Natural gas prices in the US have reached their highest level since 2008. What is going on?
Should we be worried? (No.)
Is the era of cheap gas prices over? (Define "cheap," but no.)
Is this an overbaked ham? (Maybe. Mmm...ham.)
Let's break down what's happening.
Natural gas is responsible for most (61%) of the decline in U.S. electric power carbon dioxide emissions since 2005, which is also the leading driver in total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions reductions.
Flying under the radar is that a lot of these data center projects are asking for direct natural gas connections to generate electricity onsite because it's faster and because of the reliability.
The US power sector is on track to meet the goals of the EPA Clean Power Plan next year, which is two full years before it was supposed to be enforced.
Thanks, Energy Twitter. You all are generally a thoughtful and engaging group of well-meaning folks, and stand in stark contrast to the rest of Twitter. I really learn a lot. Cheers. 🦃
Energy Fact of the Day: The US natural gas system delivers three times more energy on the coldest day of the year than the electricity grid does on the hottest.
It's official. Coal-fired power generation is set to reach an all-time high in 2021. IEA expects total global coal consumption to reach its highest level ever in 2022.
Holy guacamole: "Datacenters alone could drive approximately 10 Bcf/d of gas demand through 2030, according to Raymond James analysts."
Even if they are off by half, that's still a lot of gas load on top of other demand growth plus coal retirements.
Natural gas prices in U.S. now below $5 headed into winter heating season.
Worth noting that LNG exports remain as high as they've been for months.
So what's happening now?
Natgas production setting new highs, natgas power gen is down, and inventories are refilling quickly.
1/ Who wants to hear some scientific intrigue?
A few weeks ago, a group of physical chemists posted a paper online announcing the observation of superconductivity at room temperature.
Today I posted a comment pointing out something funny in their data.
@drvox
Battlestar Galactica, The Leftovers, and to an extent Breaking Bad (which is the best show of the list, just don't know about the mythology part).
And in a way GoT did pull it off, it was just a rush job.
Effects of a carbon tax on specific fuels at $20 per metric ton CO2.
Gasoline: $0.18 per gallon
Natural Gas: $1.06 per Mcf
Diesel/Heating Oil: $0.20 per gallon
Propane: $0.12 per gallon
Jet fuel: $0.19 per gallon
Coal: $42.02 per short ton
"A single bitcoin transaction uses roughly 707.6 kilowatt-hours of electrical energy–equivalent to the power consumed by an average U.S. household over 24 days"
This is a big deal.
The US and EU announced formation of a joint Task Force on Energy Security to bring more US LNG to Europe, lower natgas carbon intensity, permit and finance more US LNG export, ensure gas storage, reduce demand, and promote hydrogen.
I remember the January 2014 polar vortex.
The bitter cold drove US natural gas consumption to a single-day record of 133 Bcf, an astounding amount of energy delivered.
This past Friday, the US used 128 Bcf, only 4% less than the 2014 polar vortex.
And no one blinked an eye.
Remember, solar modules - imports of which are now subject to the a 30% tariff - represent only a fraction of the total cost of installing solar panels.
Holy cow.
The Texas grid operator's (ERCOT) new electric load review puts 62 gigawatts of additional electric load by 2030 *on top of the current forecast.*
New 2030 load levels used in transmission planning reach 152 GW by 2030!
For perspective, the all-time peak in ERCOT is
Implicit in the EU decision to include gas and nuclear in its taxonomy is that "green" must ensure energy reliability and resilience. Environmental or climate goals are unachievable without energy security. The EU vote made the eminently correct choice.
Since yesterday, my mentions have been a dumpster fire of vitriol and resentment. I honestly don't know how people can operate so consistently on a diet of anger and rage.
So, by way of an antidote, here's Grover observing Rex during tummy time.
Some energy equivalence: On Friday, about 56 billion cubic feet of natural gas was delivered just to the US residential and commercial sectors, much of it for winter heating. That's the energy equivalent of 700 Gigawatts of electric power capacity running full bore for 24 hours.
Robert's graphic below reminds me that there is no more mindblowing–or sobering–statistic than the following:
China used more cement between 2011 and 2013 than the United States did during the *entire 20th century.*
The scale of energy needed during cold events is mind-boggling.
*Just* natural gas use over the next week will average around 120 Bcf per day. (Excludes exports.)
120 Bcf of natural gas is the energy equivalent of 1.4 U.S. electric grids running all day at total capacity.
🎅Friday is going to be one helluva ride on Santa's sleigh with massive "blockbuster" blizzard in Great Lakes, Arctic Blast, and extreme cold all courtesy of the
#PolarVortex
+ Transiberian cross-polar flow.
This year, the North American natural gas market is in a much different place heading into the winter heating season.
Let's unpack some of the natural gas market fundamentals and share some analysis to help make sense of where we are and where we might be going.
*This* is why we an underground gas pipeline and storage system that shifts massive amounts of energy across seasons to deliver on peak.
This is why banning gas for all-electric is so problematic.
And this is why we must invest in the gas system to deliver renewable energy.
Natural gas production in Texas and the Mid-continent declined due to "well freeze-offs." This is when flowing gas at the wellhead is blocked as water and other liquids in the gas mixture freezes. Chart data from Friday, Feb 12. Platts indicated further freeze-offs were likely.
Combing through the data and when the final numbers are in, it looks like...
The United States will retire nearly 13 gigawatts of coal-fired electricity generation capacity in 2019.
That is the 3rd-largest annual amount ever.
@kevinkircher
The Italian superbonus program isn't an "electrification" policy, per se. Its success stems from consumer-friendly incentives for a range of efficiency measures, including improved building shells, higher-efficiency gas equipment, and where it makes sense, electric equipment.
A ban on fracking would send money to Russia and Saudi Arabia. The US would lose jobs. Consumers would pay a lot more for energy. And we'd make climate change worse.
What problem is a fracking ban meant to solve?
Let me give you a sense of how big our heating energy requirements are.
Yesterday, the amount of energy in *just* the natural gas delivered to homes & commercial buildings is equivalent to the energy that 800 gigawatts of electric capacity could generate over 24 hours.
Imagine for a second that 15 years ago the US had taken the radical step of banning fracking. Natural gas prices stay high and we remain reliant on foreign supply.
We would have also shut the door on the single most meaningful source of electric power sector emissions reduction.
Holy cow.
"AEP has signed agreements that will nearly double the amount of load served in Ohio in just over five years’ time," the company said in the filing"
This is from Shell's LNG Outlook 2023, though the demand forecast appears to be based on third-party outlooks, including various decarbonization scenarios.
Basicaly, this is saying there's a solid likelihood the world will not have enough LNG to meet demand starting around 2030.
There are more than 1,000 drilling rigs in operation in the US, the highest level since 2015.
4 out of 5 are directed toward oil.
Almost 9 out of 10 are horizontal rigs.
1 out of every 2 are operating in Texas.
9 out of 10 rigs in Texas are in the Permian.
Shale oil.
Natural gas use for power continues to grow.
The U.S. has been cooler than the 30-year normal by 9% since May. I honestly don't remember the last time that happened.
However, both May and June set new records for natural gas use in electric power generation.
The ability of gas infrastructure to transport and store huge amounts of energy to meet seasonal and peak energy demand is a valuable resource that must be considered when building viable decarbonization pathways.
As an electricity person, I keep being humbled by the energy-carrying capacity of gas infrastructure. A pipeline (say, Nord Stream 1) can carry gas worth 540 TWh per year. That's 30x times the energy you can put through an HVDC line. Thirty.
Both have comparable investment cost.
Please take a moment to note this study and its important findings, among which show that lower natural gas prices due to shale led to a *fewer people dying* due to home heating becoming more affordable.
When home heating is more affordable, fewer people die each winter.
That's the punchline of my new paper with Janjala Chirakijja and Pinchuan Ong on heating prices and mortality in the US. Ungated copy here:
🚨Record Asian LNG Alert 🚨
Exxon sold a prompt cargo for late-January delivery to North Asia in the mid-$30 range
That’s likely one of the costliest LNG cargoes ever transacted. Colder winter weather in Asia is boosting gas consumption
Forcing households to install all-electric appliances in San Francisco would require $14,400 to $35,000 per home in upfront retrofit costs and would add $340 to $520 to annual energy bills, according to the city's policy analysis.