Theo Maret @TheoMaret Twitter profile

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

8 months

In a new piece with @Brad_Setser , we argue the IMF’s debt targets put Sri Lanka on a path towards another default, implying it will spend more than a third of its revenues on interest payments.🧵 — Thanks @RobinWigg for the excellent editing and memes.

Is the IMF setting Sri Lanka up for a second car crash?

Dangerous DSAs

www.ft.com

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@TheoMaret

10 months

The staff report for the first review of Zambia’s IMF program is out, and there’s a lot to unpack. Some thoughts as I read along 🧵⤵️

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@TheoMaret

5 months

Some interesting tidbits on debt and restructuring dynamics from Sri Lanka's latest IMF report, as I read along ⤵️🧵

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@TheoMaret

2 years

I wrote a new blog post discussing the way forward for Sri Lanka, navigating the IMF’s financing assurances and arrears policies. It builds notably on exchanges with @Brad_Setser and points he made earlier about the Zambia IMF program and Chinese debt.

Sri Lanka's IMF program: connecting the dots

Sri Lanka reached a Staff-Level Agreement with the IMF in September on a USD 2.9 billion arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility. The next hurdle towards Executive Board approval and disbursem...

www.sovdebtoddities.com

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

1 month

I wrote a new blog post on Zambia’s Eurobond restructuring. It features a side-by-side comparison with the previous version of the deal, and some thoughts on the non-financial provisions in the new bonds

Zambia: Third Time’s a Charm?

Zambia reached an agreement with a steering committee of investors to restructure its three outstanding eurobonds, more than three years after defaulting. Two initial agreements were rejected in...

www.sovdebtoddities.com

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

2 years

The Zambian MoF just said the quiet part out loud: China is pushing back on IMF DSA assumptions. This is problematic in several respects. 1/9 Via @rachelmsavage @jdorosario

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@TheoMaret

1 year

A new IMF WP on domestic debt restructurings, proposing a decision framework for policymakers and neat illustrations.

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@TheoMaret

8 months

Complex external restructuring negotiations have had a detrimental impact on Zambia’s domestic debt market. This cautionary tale should inform current policy debates. 🧵

The cautionary tale of Zambia's domestic debt

The architecture for sovereign debt restructurings tends to be shaped by landmark cases. In that view, the deal reached in June by Zambia with its Official Creditor Committee is an important milest...

www.sovdebtoddities.com

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

1 year

Interesting (and rather nuanced?) take by Kristalina Georgieva on China’s involvement in sovereign debt restructurings, in the middle of that long discussion with the press: 1/4

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@TheoMaret

4 months

Father Christmas faced slight delays coming over from New-York but 100% worth the wait — can’t think of a more timely read, thanks @GMakoff !

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

6 months

Zambia’s bondholders deal appears to be put on hold for now — the statement gives clarity on the reasons for the official sector’s reservations and hints at disagreements within the OCC ⤵️🧵 1/11

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

2 months

A side-by-side look at the Zambia deal and the November version gives some insights into the discussions in recent months: a bigger principal haircut to meet the CoT test, partly compensated by steeper amortization of bond A and slightly higher coupons 1/5

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

5 months

Excellent reporting by Bloomberg on the comparability puzzle delaying Zambia's restructuring -- it sheds unprecedented light on both procedural misunderstandings and deeper disagreements on how comparability should be assessed ⤵️🧵

China Is Damping Zambia’s Efforts to Come Out of Default

Beijing’s standoff with global bond investors over $3 billion of Zambian debt is damping the African nation’s efforts to come out of default, and challenging the effectiveness of the International...

www.bloomberg.com

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

4 months

To start the new year, @Brad_Setser and I discuss the comparability conundrum delaying Zambia’s restructuring at the FT’s Alphaville — thanks to @RobinWigg for the editing and memes!

Zambia’s comparability conundrum

Creditor squabbles show that a rethink is necessary

www.ft.com

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

1 year

The deal reached by Suriname with bondholders raises many questions about the sequencing of restructurings and the power plays at stake for countries with a concentrated investor base. 1/x 🧵

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

2 months

So here's a snapshot of the timeline for the main ongoing restructurings (with caveats on some of the dates, e.g. Suriname default depends the consent sollicitations, etc.)

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

9 months

The IMF has a new WP just out with a deep-dive into China’s government balance sheet, including a neat overview of bank recapitalizations (not covering the 2015 capital injection in policy banks) Cc @Brad_Setser @ChimitsF @gdp1985 @michaelxpettis

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

8 months

In a new piece with @Brad_Setser we draw 10 lessons from Zambia’s incomplete restructuring. 🧵 – Thanks again @RobinWigg for having us at FTAV!

Ten lessons from Zambia’s (incomplete) restructuring

Unfortunately, they might not apply elsewhere though

www.ft.com

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

1 year

🧵 The IMF just unveiled some changes to its financing assurances policy – so here’s a long-ish thread with some context on Ukraine/IMF and then a deep-dive into the many interesting points of the policy paper. 1/16

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

19 days

I’ll be discussing the role of the IMF in sovereign restructurings and the recent update of IMF policies with @AgatheDemarais at @ecfr next week — feel free to tune in!

Breaking the Debt Deadlock in Africa: the IMF’s Balancing Act with China

The economic shock after COVID-19 plunged many African economies into debt trouble. Yet, four years later, the current system for restructuring debts – the G20 Common Framework – has struggled to…

ecfr.eu

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

6 months

The bondholder deal in Zambia was met with reservations by the IMF and OCC and is being revised — some quick thoughts below. 1/12🧵

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

2 years

I wrote a new blog post to understand how the IMF approved a program in Suriname without clear financing assurances from China and India. Another deep dive into the weeds of IMF policies, with interesting takeaways for ongoing sovereign restructurings.

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

2 years

The IMF and the WB had been quite aligned until recently in pushing for improvements of the G20 Common Framework (e.g. a debt standstill during the procedure). This makes the strong difference of tone in their reactions to the Chad deal even more striking. (IMF left, WB right)

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

1 year

I wrote a blog about recent restructuring developments in Sri Lanka involving India, China and the Paris Club, discussing the narrow path for the IMF to lend into arrears to China and approve a program absent specific and credible financing assurances

Sri Lanka: who blinks next?

There have been major developments in recent weeks for Sri Lanka’s debt restructuring process and IMF program negotiations: India and the Paris Club provided financing assurances for the program to...

www.sovdebtoddities.com

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

2 years

Getting the homework done ahead of the IMF meetings ✅ @emsovdebt

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

2 years

Had forgotten how this book is basically an all star game for sovereign debt nerds

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

2 years

Thrilled to join the World Bank's Global Macro and Debt Unit part time as a consultant. I'll work on some of the really cool sovereign debt projects they have going on: big thanks to @davidmihalyi and @RivettiDiego for the opportunity! :)

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

7 months

I’m guessing not many people had China EXIM front running the OCC in Sri Lanka on their bingo card for 2023 — Some thoughts on the wording in addition to Thilina’s thread 1/x 🧵

Thilina Panduwawala

@ThilinaKalhara

7 months

Sri Lanka MoF confirms preliminary agreement on debt restructuring with China EXIM covering $4.2bn in debt. Which indicates CDB debt not covered by this. Statement by MoF is that this will pave way towards IMF 2nd tranche. No details at all tho on terms

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

28 days

Semi-annual update: still horrified by @lteal ’s ham and cheese croissants, but his insights on Chinese debt data more than compensate for it :)

Teal

@lteal

2 years

. @TheoMaret was rightfully horrified by what passes for a French bakery in DC

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@TheoMaret

7 months

Some early thoughts on Zambia's long awaited deal with bondholders, featuring an innovative dual state-contingent trigger 1/15 ⤵️🧵

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

1 year

Sri Lanka in its letter to creditors commits not to restart servicing debt unless the creditor has agreed to restructure in line with the IMF program. It comes as an additional safeguard to financing assurances in case China refuses to play ball and later asks for full repayment.

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

1 month

There's a lot to unpack from @JayCShambaugh 's speech at PIIE, including on EM debt flows, restructurings, IMF arrears & financing assurances policies, or legislative options A thread with interesting snippets ⤵️🧵

US vision for global debt and development finance: A conversation with Jay Shambaugh, US Treasury...

The Peterson Institute for International Economics invites you to view a speech by Jay Shambaugh, US Treasury Under Secretary for International Affairs, about the US vision for sovereign debt,...

www.piie.com

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

1 year

Finishing #DebtCon6 on a high note – Greek sweets to take back home from @ManuelidesY ! Thanks again to the conference organizers for bringing together the sovereign debt crowd, and a star-studded line up :)

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@TheoMaret

11 months

The Zambia MoF in a statement confirms that Sinosure-backed claims worth $1.7bn have been re-classified as commercial and will be treated through Comparability of Treatment. 1/2

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@TheoMaret

1 year

While there are many discussions about China’s standoff with the IMF and WB in sovereign restructurings, it’s worth noting that China is *by far* the biggest contributor to the RST – with potential unintended consequences. 1/8 🧵

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@TheoMaret

11 months

The Zambia restructuring getting closer to resolution, which would be a surprising and welcome development – as usual devil is in the detail, a thread🧵⤵️ 1/n

Bloomberg Africa

@BloombergAfrica

11 months

Zambia’s creditors are close to agreeing to a long-awaited debt restructuring deal that will allow the IMF to disburse $188 million

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@TheoMaret

8 months

Now Bloomberg is reporting that PC+India could move ahead in Sri Lanka without China, like in Suriname. Would be interesting to see what assurance they rely on: commitment to non-payment from the authorities, clawback, most-favored creditor clauses... 1/3

Sri Lanka Creditors Said to Seek Debt Restructuring Deal Without China

Some members on the committee of Sri Lanka’s official creditors are pushing to reach a deal to restructure the nation’s debt without the participation of China, according to people familiar with the...

www.bloomberg.com

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

3 months

There might be a mix-up in the market between two issues: (i) the MoU signing process, and (ii) the agreement on the actual CoT parameters. It’s of course positive that China and India have now signed the MoU, but if anything it’s long overdue and not a major breakthrough. 1/4

Bloomberg Africa

@BloombergAfrica

3 months

Zambia’s dollar debt jumps after its government says China and India have signed a restructuring deal

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@TheoMaret

7 months

Suriname's bond exchange was just announced-- it's a highly specific situation but one can still draw important lessons from the deal. 1/11 ⤵️🧵

Republic of Suriname Announces Exchange Offer and Consent Solicitation in relation to Eligible Bonds

/PRNewswire/ -- The Republic of Suriname (the "Republic") announced today that it invites Eligible Holders (as defined below) of its 9.875% Notes due 2023...

www.prnewswire.com

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

2 months

Important points from the Zambia deal with bondholders that’s just out: 1) OCC/IMF have apparently signed off on the deal 2) Inclusion of non-financial provisions: most favored creditor, loss reinstatement clause, transparency obligations 1/3

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@TheoMaret

1 year

With Sri Lanka in talks to engineer a debt-for-nature conversion/swap (DFNS), worth remembering what these transactions can or cannot do, and potential unintended consequences. 1/14

Bloomberg

@business

1 year

Sri Lanka is in talks with the United Nations Development Program and other agencies for a program that involves restoring a degraded eco-system in exchange for canceling debt

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@TheoMaret

1 year

Back home – merry Christmas and happy holidays to the sovereign debt Twitter bubble! 🎄

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@TheoMaret

6 months

I wrote a new blog post discussing the reservations expressed by the official sector on Zambia’s bondholder deal. It goes into the weeds of IMF targets and the comparability of treatment principle, before drawing broader lessons ⤵️

Zambia: the Official Sector Strikes Back

Zambia’s agreement in principle with bondholders was met with reservations by the IMF and the Official Creditor Committee, and is apparently being revised. There are two main reasons for the official...

www.sovdebtoddities.com

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

1 month

Look forward to speaking about Comparability of Treatment at the conference organized by @LaynaMosley & team during the IMF meetings! (For buyside folks, I’ll also be discussing frontier markets/restructurings at the BofA conference Thursday morning)

The Politics of Sovereign Finance

This conference brings together scholars, policymakers and private sector participants to consider contemporary issues in the realm of sovereign finance. We focus on the domestic and international...

psfl.princeton.edu

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

1 year

Worth digging into the list of papers to be presented later this week at #DebtCon6 – for instance a cool primer by BofA Research on how to value distressed sovereign debt, with a lot of interesting market insights ⤵️

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@TheoMaret

8 months

For all I know it’s the first time a US official has given a bit more information on what it would take for the US to accept an increase of China’s IMF quota shares. Interestingly, sovereign debt appears to be part of the deal. 1/6 🧵

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

29 days

The IMF just announced a reform of its financing assurances and arrears policies — it notably introduces a new strand in the LIOA enabling the IMF to approve a program absent the consent of a major official creditor (e.g. China) under certain conditions

IMF Executive Board Endorses Reforms to Promote the IMF’s Capacity to Support Countries Undertaking...

The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) endorsed today the recommendations of the IMF staff paper “Policy Reform Proposals to Promote the Fund’s Capacity to Support Countries...

www.imf.org

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

3 months

I had a blast discussing the sovereign restructuring architecture and takeaways for Sri Lanka with @AruthaResearch , the up-and-coming Sri Lankan think tank on debt issues — give them a follow and have a look at their work!

Arutha

@AruthaResearch

3 months

. @AruthaResearch and @Asia_Foundation hosted a discussion on #LKA ’s debt restructuring process featuring @TheoMaret , an analyst specialising in sovereign debt and economist @UmeshMoramudali . The event welcomed participants from civil society, think tanks and diplomatic personnel.

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@TheoMaret

7 months

Zambia’s Eurobond restructuring deal indicates that ~25% of the $2bn base bond would amortize in 2024-2025 during the IMF program, on top of 5.75% coupon paid in cash — this seems to indicate that the IMF modified the DSA significantly from the first iteration 1/3

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@TheoMaret

11 months

Some further thoughts on the Zambia debt deal, building on Brad’s cool thread. 1/17 🧵

Brad Setser

@Brad_Setser

11 months

There has been a desperate need for some sign of progress on the restructuring of the debt of low income countries -- And it certainly appears that France helped broker an important deal between China, Zambia and (implicitly) the IMF ... 1/x

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@TheoMaret

3 months

Kenya coming to the market above 10% yield is a good occasion to dust off @emsovdebt ’s blog on Eurobonds with massive coupons — bottom line cost of debt will be high but this is not yet "shark-infested waters" which Greg defines as a spread over T+850bps

A rare type of bear: do sovereign international bonds with massive coupons get repaid?

Summary: With a massive coupon of 10.875% and a hefty spread of 960 basis points over US Treasuries, Mongolia in March 2016 priced a $500 million

bondvigilantes.com

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

1 year

Something often overlooked when discussing China’s demand to make the WB participate in restructurings is the fact that, though not in the form of haircuts, the WB already provides significant non-debt-creating flows to LICs in such situations. 1/3

Financial Times

@FinancialTimes

1 year

Zambia’s finance minister has rejected China's call to include the World Bank and other multilateral lenders in restructuring the African country’s $13bn debt

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

1 year

Lee Buchheit mentioned the Cartagena Consensus at #DebtCon6 , discussing ways for debtor countries to have a unified voice in policy circles. Worth digging into that CIA report which shows why the US didn’t believe a debtor cartel would work at that time.

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

27 days

Our latest @FTAlphaville with @UmeshMoramudali and @ThilinaKalhara on the blurred lines in China's overseas lending. After the IMF reformed its arrears and financing assurances policies, the ball is in China's court to streamline sovereign restructurings

Blurred [sovereign debt restructuring] lines

Would an official sector creditor by any other name be treated as sweetly?

www.ft.com

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@TheoMaret

10 months

Back home 🚲❤️

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

1 month

Always a good bunch of charts on debt in the IMF’s "Macroeoconomic Developments and Prospects in Low Income Countries"

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@TheoMaret

1 year

A topic of discussion during these #IMFmeetings is: what indicators should we look at to determine whether there’s a systemic debt crisis in LICs? Easy to look at debt dynamics and conclude we’re better off than pre-HIPC, but there’s more to it in terms of development. 1/9🧵

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@TheoMaret

7 months

The UNCTAD 2023 Trade and Development Report shows how debt vulnerabilities have increased disproportionately in frontier economies, rather than bigger EMs which were in focus during previous debt crises. 1/4

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@TheoMaret

10 months

At the G20, G7 countries are apparently pushing hard to build on the recent Zambia deal, and make it the template for other sovereign restructurings – arguably facing some opposition from China. 1/2

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@TheoMaret

1 year

Me trying to strategize when the organizers put the climate session and the China session at the same time at #DebtCon6

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

7 months

I’ll be on a panel organized by @ACGeoEcon tomorrow with Guillaume Chabert from the IMF and Hung Tran from the Atlantic Council. We plan to delve into all kinds of sovereign debt shenanigans, so feel free to tune in! #IMFmeetings

IMF – World Bank Week in Marrakesh - What’s Next for Debt Distress...

As multiple countries around the world struggle with debt, our experts discuss next steps and potential solutions to alleviate some of the economic stress.

www.youtube.com

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@TheoMaret

1 year

Finishing the #IMFmeetings on a high note – second edition of the sovereign debt social ride with @GrundSebastian !

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@TheoMaret

4 months

The latest IMF report on Suriname indicates that restructuring agreements with China EXIM and the Paris Club feature contingencies related to the macro framework and oil revenues, mirroring the upside of the VRI in the bondholder deal 1/3

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@TheoMaret

8 months

The expectation that China will agree on a restructuring deal comparable to the Paris Club in Suriname is arguably not straightforward. This might in turn have implications for the resolution of Sri Lanka’s restructuring. 1/n🧵

Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

8 months

“The authorities have ... agreements in line with program parameters reached with all creditors except China. Both sides expressed commitment to work towards an agreement on comparable terms with other creditors by the next review.”

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@TheoMaret

1 year

I wrote a short blog following the first review of Zambia's IMF program, as the Fund ramps up pressure on China ahead of the IMF Spring Meetings next week

The (un)Common Framework: push comes to shove

The G20 Common Framework somehow assumed that China could behave like Paris Club creditors within the international financial system. The Zambia restructuring is proving that this assumption is...

www.sovdebtoddities.com

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

1 year

Back to basics 🚲

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

2 years

🧵Many interesting point in Brent Neiman's #SovereignDebt speech (not in the right order) - US open to expanding the G20 Common Framework to middle income countries (Sri Lanka?) - Encouraging China to set up a bad bank to deal with distressed loans in a centralized manner 1/10

Peterson Institute

@PIIE

2 years

STARTING NOW! Brent Neiman, Counselor to @SecYellen @USTreasury delivers a speech on sovereign debt restructuring & other challenges to the global financial infrastructure. WATCH LIVE:

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

2 years

Sunday thought: why draft super long blogs when you can sum them up in a single meme?

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@TheoMaret

1 year

The latest China-DSSI paper by @D_Brautigam features a neat and concise overview of the different stakeholders involved in China’s overseas lending – especially when it comes to ownership, funding sources and lending windows

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@TheoMaret

1 month

IMF weighs in strongly on the NY sovereign debt bills: - Says they could prolong, complicate restructurings and introduce uncertainty - Supports consultation with stakeholders to gauge adverse impacts - Notes CACs made a difference and are working well

IMF: N.Y. bill could "prolong and complicate" sovereign debt restructurings

The proposed bill aims to disrupt the market.

www.axios.com

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

1 year

2022 edition of the IMF Macroeconomic Developments and Prospects in Low-Income Countries is just out, with lots of graphs and insights to dig into

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@TheoMaret

2 years

Now this paragraph from the IMF Zambia report on the exclusion of domestically-issued debt from the restructuring might be of interest for those currently looking at #SriLanka , #Ghana , etc.

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

1 year

Thanks Brad, no pressure at all! 🙃 🧵So here is another (very) long thread with interesting points from the Sri Lanka IMF report as I read along, focusing on debt issues. 1/n

Brad Setser

@Brad_Setser

1 year

Postscript -- looking forward to seeing the analysis of @TheoMaret and others on this. and, as you can probably can tell, I don't think you can work on debt restructurings without a certain willingness to muck around in the weeds (and in the numbers)

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

2 years

Neat piece by @Brad_Setser nailing down the takeaways from Zambia on the dynamics among Chinese creditors, IMF program parameters and debt relief calculations. Super relevant for anybody looking also at Ghana, Sri Lanka, etc.

Zambia’s chance to set the global financial architecture

Where Lusaka leads, others will follow?

www.ft.com

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

8 months

I’m in London next week, hit me up if you want to grab a coffee! Also for those attending JP’s EM Credit Conference, I’ll be on a panel with Alex Garrard and Brad Setser Tuesday pm to discuss sovdebt restructurings :)

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

1 year

Following the surprise move by China to provide financing assurances for Sri Lanka, I wrote a new blog post discussing how we came to the current logjam and how to explain China's feet dragging. 1/4 🧵

Sovereign restructurings: a logjam long in the making

In September 2022, Sri Lanka reached a Staff Level Agreement with the IMF. Six months later, the program is moving to the Executive Board on March 20 after China provided financing assurances that...

www.sovdebtoddities.com

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

7 months

A walk in Marrakech with @UliVolz helped me articulate what I think are limits of the MDB debt relief proposal: 1) The risk of subsidizing other creditors without any impact on sustainability 2) MDB debt relief is not what’s holding up debt debt relief packages anyway 1/16🧵

Uli Volz

@UliVolz

7 months

We need to talk... Development banks should be part of debt relief Our @FTAlphaville piece by @MarinaZucker , @KevinPGallagher and myself.

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

2 years

Sri Lanka is trying to build its own Common Framework process with an ad-hoc platform for bilateral creditors. Will be an interesting test case for the IMF arrears policy, whether it can be considered a representative forum. Full creditor presentation:

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

1 year

Last week we learned that Chad was the first country to reach a deal with its creditors under the G20 Common Framework. Little was known about the terms but REDD Intelligence now have some background. 1/9

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

9 months

An interesting aspect of the bridge provided by Qatar to Argentina: Argentina has instructed the IMF to transfer part of the 5th/6th review disbursements directly to Qatar upon Board approval 1/2

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

1 year

The latest Ecuador IMF report provides some details on the latest restructuring with China EXIM and CDB, saying the full contracts should be published soon. Cc @Brad_Setser @SergiLanauIIF @emmuser

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

4 months

Latest IMF report on Pakistan has a neat overview of stock/flow dynamics on the external debt, including the massive payments to non-bond commercial creditors in 22/23 (arguably Chinese banks) 1/2

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

2 years

Highlight of the #IMFMeetings so far: sovereign debt social ride with @SergiLanauIIF , @GrundSebastian and @jasper_aerts ! 😍🍂

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

5 years

What an incredible journey, what an incredible team. #ParisPeaceForum

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

4 months

Interesting paper by Aitor Erce & al., looking at the frequency and characteristics of domestic vs. external sovereign restructurings

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

1 year

A few people in the sovereign debt Twitter bubble with amazing content, but seriously under-followed ⤵️ @nkearse2016 @kira_mustapha @Bernat_Camps @DFacilides @GMakoff @EMD_Pickles @DennisEssers @FabioGrieco8 @CrottiIla @astridiversen @Kevin_Carey_WB Feel free to add more :)

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

5 months

Some interesting tidbits on nonresident holdings, debt carrying capacity, changes in the macro framework and restructuring dynamics from the IMF report discussing Zambia's second program review -- as I read along ⤵️🧵

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

6 months

One of (many) interesting tidbits in the latest AidData report on the Belt and Road Initiative: the seldom-asked question of whether China is also exposed to LMICs through bonded debt instruments

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

1 year

According to BBG, China is pushing for the restructuring of foreign holdings of domestic debt in Zambia – an implied criticism of the IMF DSA methodology. 1/6

China Delays Zambia Debt Deal Over Local Loans: US Official

Zambia’s debt restructuring is being delayed by requests from China to have the southern African nation’s local-currency debt held by foreigners included in a deal that could set a global precedent,...

www.bloomberg.com

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

5 months

A few thoughts and tidbits from the IMF staff paper on the 16th general Quota review, after the Board of Governors yesterday approved a 50% equiproportional quota increase ⤵️🧵

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

9 months

Really good point by @emsovdebt on debt-for-nature swaps: the incentive to announce a high figure for nominal debt service savings leads to suboptimal outcomes for the reduction of refinancing risks, targeting the back end of the curve with lower cash prices.

Bond Vigilantes

@bondvigilantes

9 months

NEW POST: 'Gabon’s debt-for-nature blue bond: a great try but did they get the conversion?' By Gregory Smith

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

2 years

My two cents on debt-for-nature conversions in #Belize 🇧🇿 or #Barbados 🇧🇧, with a few questions about the long-term impact on fragilities in the debt stocks of beneficiary countries.

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

1 year

A timely new IMF WP comparing the current debt situation in LICs to the period that led to HIPC – cool charts showing that the debt dynamics are not yet as bad as pre-HIPC, but the creditor landscape is more fragmented and new money risks becoming scarce

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

7 months

The latest IMF staff report on Suriname is just out – some interesting tidbits on comparability of treatment and Chinese debt. 1/12⤵️🧵

Suriname: Third Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility-Press...

The authorities continue to prioritize fiscal discipline and macroeconomic stability in their policy actions. Restructuring agreements have been reached for both official and privately-held public...

www.imf.org

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

1 year

🧵 In a recent C&C episode Melissa Butler touches upon a rarely discussed topic in sovereign restructurings: the increased role of plurilateral institutions and underlying debates about preferred creditor status (PCS). 1/17

‎Clauses & Controversies : Ep 103 ft. Melissa Butler sur Apple Podcasts

‎Afficher Clauses & Controversies, ép Ep 103 ft. Melissa Butler - 20 mars 2023

podcasts.apple.com

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

2 years

In the new Zambia creditor presentation, it is showed that 36% of "external debt" as per the DSA definition will be excluded from the restructuring, resulting in a 49% NPV haircut for the "restructurable" stock. Cc @Brad_Setser

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

2 years

So I’m drafting a new blog post and managed to include my all time favorite Lee Buchheit quote.

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

9 months

The #BRICS declaration on debt: focus on AE central banks rate hikes as a cause of debt vulnerabilities, prudent support to the G20 Common Framework (despite all countries being G20 members), and the Chinese wording on “joint action, fair burden sharing”

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

7 months

Interesting background paper by the IMF, trying to quantify the impact of improved debt transparency on borrowing costs and diversification of the investor base (comes with lots of caveats, obviously)

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Theo Maret

@TheoMaret

6 months

The rise of the IMF SDR interest rate is impacting countries which used up their allocation after 2021 -- I did a quick ballpark estimate of the top 10 annual payments on used SDRs in absolute terms (left pic) and relative to 2022 GDP (right pic) 1/5 (h/t @Bernat_Camps )

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