Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985 Twitter profile

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

2 years

Imagine being this optimistic again.

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

2 years

“China was chasing us, and they had a knife,” said Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin.

Pentagon Warns U.S. That They Had Scary Dream About China

WASHINGTON—Still trembling after the “startlingly lifelike” nightmare, Pentagon officials warned the nation Friday that they had a scary dream about China. “China was chasing us, and they had a...

www.theonion.com

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

1 year

Sorry, but you don't get to be friends with a country invading another European country and then say it's unfair to link your support for aggression with broader China-Europe relations. This was Beijing's choice. They chose poorly.

EU move to link Chinese relations to Ukraine war unfair, envoy says

Chinese ambassador to Brussels Fu Cong says new Russia sanctions that are expected to target Chinese companies lack evidence.

www.scmp.com

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

1 year

Jude Blanchette ( @CSISFreeman ) and I have a new @CSIS Brief on why forceful “reunification” with Taiwan would be a disaster for China, even if “successful”.🧵 1/

“Reunification” with Taiwan through Force Would Be a Pyrrhic Victory for China | CSIS

This brief explores the economic, financial, technological, and diplomatic implications of a Chinese attack on Taiwan, building a more holistic picture of the stakes for Beijing and reaffirming the...

www.csis.org

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

1 year

To say the quiet part out loud: China is revising last year's data to make this year's growth look better. The NBS didn't just discover new data from a year ago. It's data falsification. It's occurring in other series too. No need for stimulus!

China Revises 2022 Economic Data Downward Including Real Estate

Adjusted figures provide a more favorable comparison for the shaky property sector as authorities cite distortions in originally reported figures

www.caixinglobal.com

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

1 year

Pretty sure the US is going to tolerate it... Also, stop pretending that "economic coercion" only applies to what China is doing! It's pure USG Brain and sounds ridiculous to everyone with a normal brain. The concept isn't normative, it's descriptive.

US ‘Won’t Tolerate’ China’s Micron Chips Ban, Raimondo Says

Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said the US “won’t tolerate” the recent decision by Chinese authorities to ban chips by Micron Technology Inc. in some critical sectors, using her sharpest language...

www.bloomberg.com

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

10 months

The argument here is: 1) China's interventions in the economy are bad yet explain its competitiveness 2) they corrode US democratic capitalism 3) US must safeguard capitalism with state interventions Unclear what "capitalism" we're preserving here. 1/ .

The Case for a Hard Break With China

Why economic de-risking is not enough.

www.foreignaffairs.com

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

11 months

🚨🇨🇳🇹🇼🇺🇲🚨 New @CSIS Commentary from @CSISFreeman Jude Blanchette and me on the difficulty of using sanctions to deter China in a crisis over Taiwan. There are some major challenges… 1/

Sunk Costs: The Difficulty of Using Sanctions to Deter China in a Taiwan Crisis | CSIS

CSIS experts Gerard DiPippo and Jude Blanchette assess the limits of sanctions on China in a Taiwan crisis. The West should use sanctions early in a crisis and more aggressively than Beijing expects....

www.csis.org

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

10 months

I'm pleased to announce that today I'm starting as Senior Geoeconomist at Bloomberg @economics in DC. Standby for more charts but with Bloomberg data and fonts!

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

1 year

I've been reluctant to call many US responses to China "hysteria", but this definitely fits the definition. Plus it's a stupidly counterproductive policy. I hope Texas doesn't actually do this.

Anna Ashton

@annatashton

1 year

Despite purported confidence in the power of democracy to win hearts and minds, Texas may ban all Chinese students from its universities. It is tragically unsurprising that this is the state of things.

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

1 year

China's trade settlement in RMB is growing. But is there evidence that third countries are settling/invoicing their non-China trade in RMB? The true test of internationalization is whether a currency is used by non-residents outside the issuing economy.

Prepare for a multipolar currency world

The US dollar still dominates debt markets, but some niche-sounding data suggests things could be set to shift

www.ft.com

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

15 days

I disagree with this approach. It says Chinese wages in current USD should be multiplied by 4.3 instead of 1.7 (normal PPP). This assumes there's no difference in US vs China labor productivity. But then it uses current USD for all others in this global comparison below. 1/

American Enterprise Institute

@AEI

15 days

JUST RELEASED: Research from AEI's @MEaglen estimates that China's true military spending is $710.6 billion. This calculation is 3x larger than Beijing's self-reported totals and several billion dollars higher than estimates from the US intelligence community.

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

1 year

"China did not get rich through industrial policy but by improving productivity in agriculture, allowing foreign investment in manufacturing, and unleashing the private sector." This is partially true but definitely not the whole truth. 1/

The Return of Industrial Policy

Should developing economies follow the United States and China by building national champions?

www.imf.org

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

1 year

Crypto's saving grace is that it's economically useless.

Greg Ip

@greg_ip

1 year

4/ Crypto didn't have strong links to real finance because, unlike bonds, mortgages, loans, derivatives, it had no real economic value; unused in payments except ransomware, money laundering. Stablecoins, DeFi used primarily to speculate in crypto.

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

10 months

Great paper on China's industrial policy. @bnaughton remains the best in the business.

UC Institute on Global Conflict & Cooperation

@UCIGCC

11 months

In this IGCC working paper, @bnaughton , @SiwenXiao , and @XuYaosheng argue that most of the changes in Chinese #IndustrialPolicy shift the ultimate objective of technology and industry policies from economics to security.

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

4 days

China's EV import share to decline from 1% to 0%. US auto industry: saved!

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@Dimi

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US set to impose 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles via @ft

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

6 months

China is succeeding at building indigenous manufacturing. Autos, electronics, and pharma are areas for further gains. Japanese and US firms are losing in electronics and German firms in autos. 1/

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

9 months

The US economy is CRUSHING it! All the US needed was lots of inflation, a strong exchange rate, and deflation in China amid a property crisis.

Tom Orlik

@TomOrlik

9 months

Tired of winning? China GDP now shrinking as a share of US GDP finds @gdp1985

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

8 months

Chinese industrial policy tends to produce excess capacity in targeted sectors. Insofar as we want geographic diversification of production, that's bad. But insofar as we want low prices for that good globally, it's good. Which matters more for batteries?

Jorge Guajardo

@jorge_guajardo

8 months

Look at the underutilization of China’s battery manufacturing installed capacity. It is delusional to assume a country can compete with this overcapacity without raising tariffs and protecting domestic manufacturers. Same applies to petrochemicals, steel, aluminum, etc.

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

1 year

I'm honored to have contributed to the China Leadership Monitor. Here are some thoughts (and charts!) on the current state of China's economy.

China’s Economy After Covid-19 | China Leadership Monitor

China's economy has emerged from "zero-Covid" without the inflation that occured in some other major economies but with reduced consumption, minimal private investment growth, a weakened real estate...

www.prcleader.org

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

10 months

Folks, this is my last day at @CSIS_Econ . It's been wonderful working with so many brilliant colleagues. I'm proud of the work we've done. Now it's time for a new adventure...which I'll reveal after taking a few weeks off. But don't worry, there will be charts and China takes!

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

1 year

Apropos of those pushing a "New Cold War" with China, I ask those making that analogy to extend the narrative of the US "winning" and look at Russia now. Just because you "win" doesn't mean your rival goes away. We should think of history as continuous and plan accordingly...

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

1 year

Imagine if all you knew about 2022 was this chart and someone asked you to explain what caused this. You might speculate that the price of Russia's exports had jumped a ton, but I doubt you'd think this is an economy under major sanctions.

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

5 months

I really wish all "Foreign Affairs" pieces were half the length and started with a box summarizing how the authors' suggested policies are different from current policies. This isn't aimed at any particular piece because it's how I react to all of them.

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

1 year

New @CSIS_Econ Commentary on RMB internationalization! @ALPalazzi and I distinguish between two questions, which get muddled in the discourse. First, will the RMB overtake the USD globally? Second, will the RMB be used more for trade with China? 1/

It’s All about Networking: The Limits of Renminbi Internationalization | CSIS

CSIS experts Gerard DiPippo and Andrea Leonard Palazzi explain the importance of “network effects” and how they could limit the renminbi’s rise as a replacement for the U.S. dollar in trade settlem...

www.csis.org

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

11 months

Semiconductor/tech peeps, how much does this matter?

China Restricts Export of Chipmaking Metals in Clash With US

China imposed restrictions on exporting two metals that are crucial to parts of the semiconductor, telecommunications and electric-vehicle industries in an escalation of the country’s tit-for-tat...

www.bloomberg.com

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

11 months

I just read @ZongyuanZoeLiu 's excellent "Sovereign Funds". This is the definitive account of CIC and SAFE investment activities.

Zongyuan Zoe Liu

@ZongyuanZoeLiu

11 months

Officially released! My new book "Sovereign Funds: How the Communist Party of China Finances Its Global Ambitions" is about the geoeconomics of China's sovereign funds and FX reserves management. A 6-part thread of key arguments:

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

1 year

Saturday Morning Chart: China's exports! They jumped unexpectedly in March. But where are they going? ASEAN, Africa, LatAm, and Russia mostly! Exports to advanced economies are flat or falling.

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

1 month

This chart is wrong. It uses the NBS CPI series for transportation facilities. They don't report one for cars.

HZ

@MFHoz

1 month

🟥China is in a full blown deflation Car prices are collapsing

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

2 years

Do you like INDUSTRIAL POLICY? Do you like CHINA ECON? Do you like CHARTS??? You'll love this event and project! Save the date. 24 May is "Red Ink" day!

Red Ink: Estimating Chinese Industrial Policy Spending in Comparative Perspective

Please join the CSIS Economics Program and the CSIS Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics for the launch of the report, “Red Ink: Estimating Chinese Industrial Policy Spending in Comparat...

www.csis.org

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

1 year

Talking is good. But what is the "olive branch" here besides offering to talk? What is it that both sides could plausibly negotiate that would "break the impasse"? Sorry, I guess I'm fixated on policies and revealed preferences more than tone. 1/

Janet Yellen’s welcome overture to China

Beijing should respond to the olive branch from the US Treasury secretary

www.ft.com

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

2 years

New piece by @osmastro and @DerekScissors1 is basically a rebuttal to the Brands/Beckley thesis in "Danger Zone". I read the latter this weekend and had similar thoughts. I especially agree that PRC officials are not planning for decline. 1/

China Hasn’t Reached the Peak of Its Power

Why Beijing can afford to bide its time.

www.foreignaffairs.com

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

1 year

In case you're wondering, here is the composition of China's manufacturing output by revenue...

Arnaud Bertrand

@RnaudBertrand

1 year

What a chart in the FT: China is now as big as the US and the EU **COMBINED** (!) in terms of manufacturing value added (a measure of the net-output of all manufacturing activity in a country). Just 15 years ago it was smaller than either one of these 2. Crazy fast change!

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

21 days

Pakistan's debt problem is everyone's headache. The IMF wants to be repaid. China wants its debts serviced. The US doesn't want Fund money going to China but worries about instability. @_ashuklaa and I explain this geopolitical web. 1/

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

2 years

This is a great thread. But we should describe TWN as *choosing* not to spend on defense, not as facing budgetary constraints. TWN's revenues and debts are low. TWN could easily afford to double (or triple) defense spending. Too many Western commentators give TWN a pass on this.

james crabtree

@jamescrabtree

2 years

Excellent thread from @tanganzhu on the central dilemma of Taiwanese military defence. The country needs 2 quite different sets of capabilities: (1) to cope with PRC tactics today and (2) to repel an eventual invasion. & it doesn't have the $$$ to invest in both.

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

1 year

There's a part of me that wants to thank the PRC for bringing us all together at this moment. Truly special.

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

1 year

Very sensible advice for our very normal times from @jbarro .

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

9 months

I know we're still debating the data, but this trend is remarkable if you zoom out.

Jens Nordvig 🇩🇰🇺🇸🇺🇦

@jnordvig

9 months

I have been pretty vocal over the past few quarters about how bad the trend in Chinese foreign direct investment was. But the Q2 data was EVEN WORSE than I expected. Global corporates have simply stopped investing in China... (The liabilities, blue bars, are the inflows)

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

6 months

My wife is on the phone with her family. She's basically apologizing that I'm cooking duck, not turkey. I refuse to apologize for cooking superior poultry. Turkey is among the worst birds. It's time we accept that and embrace the bountiful options the market economy offers.

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

1 month

It's time.

Zichen Wang

@ZichenWanghere

2 months

Fudan Professor Lan Xiaohuan's 2021 domestic bestseller is now available in English as How China Works: An Introduction to China’s State-led Economic Development - and free if your institution subscribes to Springer. We @yuxuanjia02 share an excerpt.

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

1 year

Two quick reactions: 1) It's been declared for only 3 days. 2) It's not the PLA Navy. Different signal than August, but still hinting at "quarantine" ability. @BrianTHart

China to inspect ships in Taiwan Strait, Taiwan says won't cooperate

Fujian maritime safety administration launched a three-day special joint patrol and inspection operation in central and northern parts of the Taiwan Strait that includes moves to board ships.

www.reuters.com

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

4 months

I'm starting to get the impression that the US defense industrial base is at risk of being overstretched...

Ragıp Soylu

@ragipsoylu

4 months

NEW — Jordan requests Patriot air defense systems from Washington, Reuters says, citing a Jordanian security source

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

7 months

China's BRI was centrally outlined, but implementation was uncoordinated and decentralized. Lack of central control, inattention to debt sustainability, and a tangle of incentives help explain why Beijing has been slow to work through developing-world debt problems.

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

1 month

Everyone is focused on overcapacity in China, but I think we need to talk about overcapacity in Tatte's in DC. Perhaps this can be added to the US-China talks?

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

1 year

🚨OECD summary of industrial policy research!!!🚨 The OECD does some of the best research but they're too low-key. Don't miss this one! I'm excited to read it closely. @mazzocco_ilaria @straightedge @juhreka13

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

6 months

If Western automakers really want to duplicate China's IP model, Western governments should only allow the sale of Chinese autos made in their countries by JV subsidiaries with a 49% stake. 1/

Joe Weisenthal

@TheStalwart

6 months

Very exciting to see Western industrial giants, importing knowledge and learning from more advanced Chinese operations.

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

2 years

There's a lot in @Noahpinion 's post. But on property, if we zoom out, what's clear is that China's residential construction and sales are now closely correlated and both falling. China's property sector is ~25% of GDP (all in), and ~75% of that is residential. 1/2

Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇸🇺🇦

@Noahpinion

2 years

15 years ago, China was growing at 14%. By 3 years ago that had fallen to 6%. Now China is in a recession, due to some policy mistakes. They need to rethink how they make policy...

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

1 year

I finally plotted both Russia's estimated exports and imports together. Mirror statistics suggest that Russia's current account surplus jumped in 2022 because of depressed imports rather than higher exports.

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

1 year

I'm wary of conflating country and company monopolies. In China, monopolies are largely inefficient central SOEs, which are not important for exports. China's globally competitive sectors are...competitive. The policies that govts complain about operate on a different level.

Rana Foroohar

@RanaForoohar

1 year

The problem with concentrated power My take on why Chinese mercantilism and Western corporate monopolies are part of the same problem

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

6 months

Why should you argue with your uncle at Thanksgiving about China's trade data? For one thing, China's manufactured goods trade surplus is the largest since the US after WW2 compared to global GDP.

Brad Setser

@Brad_Setser

6 months

No U.S. Thanksgiving should be complete without a vigorous debate over the accuracy of China's economic and balance of payments data ...

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

1 year

It's so beautiful 😭 USD 8.40 for all this. I love the US dollar so, so much.

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

22 days

There are many articles about Chinese FDI in Mexico. They seem to avoid using data, which doesn't fit the popular narrative. The fact is, US FDI flows into Mexico remain far, far larger than Chinese FDI into Mexico, anecdotes aside.

Scott Lincicome

@scottlincicome

22 days

"How Chinese firms are using Mexico as a backdoor to the US" "While the Chinese origin of the capital coming into Mexico may be uncomfortable... according to international trade legislation, those products are, to all intents and purposes, Mexican"

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

5 months

Indeed, Chinese EV imports are a major concern for the EU. But it's not just because they're cheaper. Chinese auto firms have better EVs. The European automakers (or at least their headquarters) missed the competitive trends, in part due to COVID. 1/

Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇸🇺🇦

@Noahpinion

5 months

Europe is struggling to figure out what to do about a wave of cheap Chinese EV imports that threatens to crush the European auto industry.

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

1 month

Ships, steel, and US industrial strategy: Shipbuilders want fees on Chinese vessels. Steelworkers don't want Nippon investing. Biden expressed support for both but US isn't interested in new subsidies due to fiscal retrenchment. Policies are underpowered and contradictory. 1/

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

10 months

My first @economics piece... 🇨🇳🇹🇼 😁

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

27 days

People will argue about what counts as public debt for China and these forecasts. But China's fiscal picture is worse than the US, in my view. The key difference is that US debt is nearly all central, transparent, and liquid.

Nicholas Borst

@NBorstSF

27 days

Eye-opening chart from the IMF in the latest Fiscal Monitor. Public debt in China on a much worse path than the United States.

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

5 months

Seriously though, rising CNY use is a thing. China's cross-border data suggests it's mostly on the financial side, but trade settlement is also part of the story. And that's the meaningful trend to watch.

Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

5 months

We warned you!!!

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

5 months

The age of US industrial policy to incentivize tech transfer is underway. This time, the flow will be from Chinese firms to US firms...

Keith Naughton

@KeithNaughton

6 months

NO CREDIT: @Ford 's Mustang Mach-E plug-in pony car is losing its US tax credit after the @JoeBiden administration set rigorous limits on materials that can be sourced from China & other foreign adversaries. $F @JoeDeaux @gablova @AriNatter via @climate

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

2 years

My condolences to the investors who deluded themselves into believing Xi was joking in his work report.

China to ‘Unswervingly’ Keep to Covid Zero Policy, Dashing Hopes

China will “unswervingly” adhere to its current Covid controls as the country faces increasingly serious outbreaks, health officials said, damping hopes that Beijing will ease its stringent policies...

www.bloomberg.com

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

1 year

Saturday Chart (🎄edition): While China's household consumption as a share of GDP is low, its household *income* is not. In fact, it's more than other major economies, with the United States being an outlier. This reflect high *savings*, not low *income*. 1/

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

1 year

The US saying, "China is decoupling but the US is not," is confusing in part because it's applying a US term. China is pursuing *self sufficiency* (not "decoupling") as a goal in three domains: 1) tech; 2) commodities; 3) currency. 1/

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

1 year

Totally agree. This is Jake Sullivan Sept 2022 speech erasure.

Alexander Sullivan

@AlexHSullivan

1 year

Yellen’s China speech was decent given the policy stance she has to work with. But the USG is really kidding itself if it think lines like this read as honest

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

1 year

"But China isn't supporting Russia!" Yes it is. Not as much as it would without Western sanctions looming. But definitely in spirit. Or, as @EvanFeigenbaum says, strategically, if not tactically.

Xi calls for China, Russia to ‘elevate cooperation’ in talks with Mishustin

Foreign ministry readout did not say if Chinese president and Russian prime minister discussed the war in Ukraine.

www.scmp.com

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

9 months

I think it's premature to make this call. We should expect supply chains to shift one node at a time. A country like Vietnam needs to start somewhere. Clustering begets clustering. Still, "de-risking" in total is beyond what US policy can achieve.

Joe Biden’s China strategy is not working

Supply chains are becoming more tangled and opaque

www.economist.com

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

1 year

We got to meet with President Tsai today!

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

2 months

My thoughts on Lighthizer's book are complicated. To add to the confusion, here are some memes that badly capture my thoughts. I will not be taking questions at this time, as it's cocktail hour. Happy Friday.

Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

2 months

Ok this is better than expected. He makes some good points! I need to organize my thoughts. Some of my takes could be too hot for this site...

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

4 months

Yes. People know that domestic content accounts for most value added in China's manufacturing exports and that Chinese firms (vs foreign invested) are a rising share of what China produces. But fewer appreciate how much China's manufacturing still depends on external demand. 1/

Brad Setser

@Brad_Setser

4 months

A couple of my favorite charts, now updated with data for calendar 2023. "Deglobalization" is no longer taken as gospel (see Martin Wolf). But not everyone recognizes that China is more reliant on global demand to support its manufacturing output than it was 5ys ago 1/

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

6 months

I've done zero research on this, haven't bothered to ask sources, and actually don't care, but I nonetheless expect new pandas for the US to be a key deliverable for the Xi-Biden meeting. I'm putting this down as a marker.

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

6 months

US-China economic flows are flat or declining. People-to-people ties have not recovered since Covid. Maybe it's not full "decoupling", but the US and China are drifting apart as Biden and Xi prepare to meet. 1/

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

9 months

The original BRICs group was about economic size and potential. That grouping made sense. The new grouping...less so, at least based on those criteria. It's geopolitics all the way down now. 1/

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

10 months

To be clear, I'm not a doctrinaire libertarian. But it's weird to complain about China's state interventions on the basis that we need to counter them to preserve a "capitalist" system. Just say you think industrial policy works and "capitalism" isn't what we're worried about. 2/

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

2 years

I'm not saying the Party Congress outcome is good. But note that in the US it's totally normal for a leader to appoint senior people based on personal ties/background and not best credentials. It's not like Li Qiang has no government experience, for example.

ian bremmer

@ianbremmer

2 years

the most problematic takeaway from china’s party congress is the promotion of xi loyalists over experience and competence. for the last forty years, china communist party promotion was mostly meritocratic. the latest group is a turn in russia’s direction.

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

2 months

Standby for comments. I expect to have quite a few...

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

8 months

@ahardtospell String. He studied economics and is less corrupt.

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

1 year

"What if, however, China’s rise also triggers behavior that works in America’s favor without the United States having much in the way to do with it?" The China-mediated Iran-Saudi deal is good, actually.

Daniel W. Drezner

@dandrezner

1 year

There were two big rapprochements in world politics this week. Both involved China way more than the United States, which is gonna unsettle some folks. But it's not all bad.

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

1 year

Basically, I reject the notion that the current state of US-China relations is all just a big misunderstanding. There are major strategic, political, and economic differences that can at best be managed (and I really hope they are) but cannot be resolved or negotiated away. 5/

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

1 month

On her trip to China, Yellen warned about overcapacity. Beijing says these concerns are over-hyped. Who's right? Probably both! We looked at capacity utilization, investment, and export prices. 1/

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

5 months

The yuan is gaining ground as the preferred currency for trade settlement among China’s partners, and not just with Russia. Higher dollar rates are one explanation. Geopolitics is another. Read my piece with @x1skv on @TheTerminal .

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

1 year

NEW @CSIS_Econ REPORT! @ALPalazzi and I examine the *effects* and *effectiveness* of the sanctions on Russia and then draw some lessons for the potential use of sanctions against the PRC. 1/

Bearing the Brunt: The Impact of the Sanctions on Russia’s Economy and Lessons for the Use of...

This report assesses the effects and effectiveness of international sanctions and export controls aimed at Russia since its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, suggesting lessons for the use of sanctions on...

www.csis.org

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

1 year

One of several reasons why Beijing is trying to stabilize China's property sector: local government land sales have plummeted. In 2021, land sales were 45% of local government gross revenues (including central transfers). Local governments are the weak link in fiscal finance.

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

1 year

I don't think US retaliation for a weak retaliatory response from China is required.

Lingling Wei 魏玲灵

@Lingling_Wei

1 year

Pressure builds on the Biden administration to respond to Beijing’s Micron action as Commerce Secretary Raimondo and Chinese Commerce Minister Wang head into a pivotal meeting late this afternoon/early evening in Washington w/ @charleshutzler via @WSJ

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

2 years

Pool reading

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

4 months

If I had my way (indexed to inflation): House Rep: $500k Senator: $1 m President: $2 m Lots of these people have to maintain two residencies. To suggest these aren't "elite" jobs is to believe governing the US is a joke and is asking for corruption/rich people rule.

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

2 years

My new @CSIS Commentary looks at economic indicators of potential Chinese military action against Taiwan. 1/10

Economic Indicators of Chinese Military Action against Taiwan | CSIS

CSIS senior fellow Gerard DiPippo explores whether economic indicators could reveal Beijing’s military intentions regarding Taiwan.

www.csis.org

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

1 year

A chart is worth a thousand words.

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

1 year

Being a Chinese bank executive doesn't seem fun. "FYI, we're not done with the purges. More are coming. We won't say who, but you know who you are. Actually... you don't, but we do! Anyway, carry on." - CCDI

Rebecca Choong Wilkins 钟碧琪

@RChoongWilkins

1 year

SCOOP: Chinese authorities warned the nation’s top banking executives that the crackdown on the $60 finance sector is far from over in a private meeting late Friday.

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

1 year

I finally decorated my office...with MAPS! Brought to you by @RhodesCartogra1 . Rhodes Cartography: Thinking in Space! Check out their website. Buy maps!

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

2 months

I mostly agree, but people should also pay attention to facts after 2020. If you watch China closely, you know they're pivoting back to exports. Whether that's good or bad is another question, but no fact-based analysis can say China's becoming less reliant on exports.

Scott Lincicome

@scottlincicome

2 months

Thread. The anti-globalization script doesn't change, even when the facts do.

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

1 year

I'm surprised it's taken so long to recognize the political implications of banning TikTok. I get the security concerns, but there are like 100m users in the US. It's easy for Congress (or analysts) to suggest banning it, but I suspect POTUS doesn't want to declare war on Gen Z.

Alex Seitz-Wald

@aseitzwald

1 year

NEW: TikTok ban would be 'a slap in the face' to young Democratic voters, activists warn, w/⁦ @sahilkapur ⁩ and ⁦ @carolelee ⁩

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

2 months

I don't want to single out anyone, but if you're writing about China's defense budget increase and say it's above the GDP growth target, try again. One is nominal. The other is real. Whether it's above or below depends on inflation.

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

18 days

We dug into this data, including by looking at alternative estimates. We can confirm that in fact Chinese FDI into Mexico is way smaller than from the US. Don't believe the hype. 1/

Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

22 days

There are many articles about Chinese FDI in Mexico. They seem to avoid using data, which doesn't fit the popular narrative. The fact is, US FDI flows into Mexico remain far, far larger than Chinese FDI into Mexico, anecdotes aside.

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

8 months

All listed firms should be required by law to report the share of their revenue from China because it would make my job easier.

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

11 months

Unacceptable. The US must sanction Cuba immediately! Oh, wait... TBH, I'm surprised it took them this long.

WSJ News Exclusive | Cuba to Host Secret Chinese Spy Base Focusing on U.S.

Beijing agreed to pay Havana several billion dollars for allowing it to set up an eavesdropping facility about 100 miles from Florida.

www.wsj.com

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

1 year

Here it is, folks...

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

2 years

I reiterate that I doubt China is going to do much against Western firms in retaliation for the recent US export controls. Beijing understands hitting back won't change USG behavior for the better and has large downside risks, particularly given current investor sentiment.

Lingling Wei 魏玲灵

@Lingling_Wei

2 years

Washington and Beijing are wrangling over whether Biden and Xi will meet around the G20 summit. Chinese officials have only recently re-engaged after ill feelings over the leaders’ last exchange in July. By ⁦ @charleshutzler ⁩ and me 🧵

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

1 year

I've gained many followers during the Balloon Incident. Thank you! But I think many of you will be disappointed once you realize my real job is to cover economic issues...

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

1 year

Dreary weather, but very happy to be here. Prepare for food pictures...

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

1 year

Kids, let me tell you, traveling before internationally operable smartphones was a different experience. Physical maps. International calling cards. Internet cafes to check-in daily. Cash for most things. Guide books. No Twitter to keep me busy. Those were different times.

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

1 year

This article confirms what many suspected: some US actions against China are being delayed to encourage engagement. But will they be postponed forever? I doubt it. Beijing knows this...

Insight: Why the US delayed China sanctions after shooting down a spy balloon

When an alleged Chinese spy balloon traversed the United States in February, some U.S. officials were confident the incursion would galvanize the U.S. bureaucracy to push forward a slate of actions...

www.reuters.com

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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985

2 months

Let's be empirical. Yes, China's manufacturing sector has relied more on external demand since Covid. But export unit costs are falling in part because they jumped during the pandemic. EVs are getting attention, but we're not seeing evidence of exported deflation. At least yet.

Mike Mazarr

@MMazarr

2 months

A great explainer by one of our leading thinkers on economic interdependence of how to think about some Chinese economic strategies

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