Mark Bohlund @Markbohlund Twitter profile

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Mark Bohlund

7 years

Africa Tilts as Winners Emerge From the Commodities Slump

East African countries are integrating into a robust regional market as energy exporters on the other side of the continent struggle to find growth.

www.bloomberg.com

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

3 years

EU envoy says Ethiopia in 'denial' over Tigray

"This is the problem," said Pekka Haavisto. "That the picture, even in Addis Ababa, on what has happened, is missing."

www.devex.com

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

3 years

A well-argued article by Alex de Waal. World Bank had USD3.158bn in undisbursed loans due to Ethiopia at end-2020. Support for many projects in Ethiopia likely to continue but drop in budget support now likely to be sharper than previously expected.

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

3 years

IMF and Kenyan Authorities Reach Staff-Level Agreement on a Three-Year, US$2.4 Billion Financing Package

IMF and Kenyan Authorities Reach Staff-Level Agreement on a Three-Year, US$2.4 Billion Financing...

www.imf.org

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

3 years

EU to dispatch humanitarian negotiator to Ethiopia after aid suspension

The EU says Ethiopia must grant full humanitarian access to Tigray before it will restore €88 million of suspended budget support.

www.devex.com

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

2 years

Ethiopia’s net debt flow fell back into negative territory in 1Q22, eroding its low FX reserves to a dangerous level. Debt servicing payments amounted to $401m in principal payments and $117m in interest. $33m Eurobond coupon due 13 June. More at REDD.

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

3 months

S&P forecasting #Nigeria 's nominal GDP at $266bn in 2025, 42% lower than latest IMF forecast of $458bn (Oct 23). The forecast implies a drop in GDP per capita towards $1,000. Note that last national census was in 2006 as planned 2023 census was delayed.

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

1 month

Interesting from new World Bank statistics on defaults is that the highest recovery rates among private-sector counterparts were in Sub-Saharan #Africa among all regions and among low-income countries. Quite a strong negative correlation between recovery rates and income-level.

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

1 year

#Angola 's debt owed to Chinese creditors falls by $942m in 3Q22 while debt owed to Israeli creditors up $532m, UK up $508m and US up $421m. For all the billions in debt servicing and talk of "fantastic turnaround story", Angola is more indebted than ever and pumping 1/3 less oil

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

11 months

Imran Khan’s political games leave him isolated as Pakistan army destroys party

Allies desert former prime minister amid disappearances and torture as powerful military reasserts control

www.theguardian.com

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

8 months

"Angola's interest payments to external creditors, mostly Chinese, doubled from US$775 million in the first quarter of this year to US$1.57 billion in the second quarter as the three-year debt moratorium with Chinese creditors ended." via @YahooFinance

Angola's interest payments to creditors double as Chinese debt freeze ends

Angola's interest payments to external creditors, mostly Chinese, doubled from US$775 million in the first quarter of this year to US$1.57 billion in the second quarter as the three-year debt...

finance.yahoo.com

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

11 months

"Zambia's finance ministry said that paying foreign holders of domestic bonds consumes about 80% of funds available to service all external debt leaving other creditors feeling severely short-changed. “There’s a reason why China is being so intransigent,”

Critics accuse IMF over countries’ debt deadlocks

Creditors and analysts grow impatient with fund’s flawed framework to calculate debt sustainability

www.ft.com

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

4 years

#Kenya economy contracts 9.1% quarter-over-quarter in seasonally-adjusted terms (-5.7% year-over-year) in 2Q as Covid pandemic hits service sector. Accommodation & Food sector down 83% YOY. Monthly data for July and August look good. Question is if recovery can be maintained.

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

2 years

@Esbjornsson @rachelmsavage Their net oil exports were $1.25bn last year.

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

4 years

Interesting paper. Very relevant beyond Sub-Saharan Africa IMO.

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

2 years

Ghana's Ministry of Finance due to announce additional fiscal measures later this week according to Bank of Ghana MPC press conference.

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

4 years

China agrees to restructure debt of more than 10 countries: FM Spokesperson #China #DSSI via @appcsocialmedia

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

3 years

Interesting article and paper on legacy of colonial economic structure in Africa. 'The legacy of the colonial economy in Africa was a negative feedback loop of weak institutions and spatial inequities.'

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

4 years

Interesting blog on inter-ethnic marriages in #Africa . 'The lowest ratio of interethnic marriages is found in Kenya and the highest in Zambia. The lowest ratios of interfaith marriages are observed in Guinea and the highest in Gambia, Niger and Zambia.'

We need a better understanding of interethnic marriages in sub-Saharan Africa | Africa at LSE

Ethnicity and faith are often depicted as key cleavages in sub-Saharan Africa. Yet research on interethnic marriages reveals that they are far from rare.

blogs.lse.ac.uk

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

3 years

@Ramah_Nyang You should have a read of this Ramah.

‘KRA has the capacity, but it is kept on a tight leash’: The politics of tax administration and...

Working paper 159 Download pdf Matthew Tyce This paper examines the factors that have influenced the performance of the Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA) since its establishment in 1995. It discovers a...

www.effective-states.org

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

3 years

#Kenya ranks second (after South Africa ) in ICT readiness in new edition of World Bank's Africa Pulse released today. Some distance to peer countries.

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

4 years

This is a great chart from a great piece by @martinwolf_ and what I expect to be a a great book by @michaelxpettis and @M_C_Klein .

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

3 years

#Kenya approved for DSSI participation by Paris Club. @alykhansatchu

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

4 years

Got to go to frontier markets, many in sub-saharan Africa for economic growth. East and (Francophone) West Africa likely to continue to grow strongly n 2020 despite slowdown in 3Q19...

Robin Brooks

@robin_j_brooks

4 years

Emerging markets that in 2019 grew less than developed markets: Brazil, Uruguay, Turkey, South Africa, Ecuador, Mexico, Saudi Arabia and Argentina. EMs that barely outgrew developed markets are Russia, Nigeria and Thailand. Many EMs face a serious "secular stagnation" problem...

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

6 years

A good example about how the African debt trap lingo of U.S. senators and others (including @TheTelegraph__ and to some extent @guardian ) is ill-founded. Beijing is significantly more likely to ease debt terms than Eurobond investors and other holders of commercial debt.

Yunnan Chen 陈韵楠

@YunnanChen

6 years

China agrees to extend maturity of Ethiopia's railway loans from 10 to 30 years, a much needed salve given Ethiopia's foreign exchange struggles, and a significant concession.

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

5 years

A message potentially directed more towards holders of African eurobonds and other debt than African governments. Don't expect debt relief, United States warns Africa

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

3 years

Built on the bodies of slaves: how Africa was erased from the history of the modern world

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

2 years

S&P on #Ethiopia "These high refinancing needs, which exceed the country's gross FX reserves of about $1.8bn as of January 2022, will keep gross external financing needs elevated at about 170% of current account receipts and usable reserves over 2022-2025."

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

4 years

2021 edition of @WorldBank International Debt Statistics

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

5 years

#Angola , #Ethiopia and (foremost) #IvoryCoast doing well in latest edition of @WorldBank World Governance Indicators.. #Tanzania doing badly as might be expected. #Morocco still lagging peers on lowest rung of investment grade credit rating (BBB-).

Home | Worldwide Governance Indicators

www.worldbank.org

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

4 months

" "Sub-Saharan African sovereigns rated B in 2010-23 defaulted in 22% of cases within five years. The global number stands at a long-term average of only 16%. At Moody’s, the observed default ratios are 30% for SSA sovereigns and 15% for global average"

African criticism of credit ratings is a red herring

Agencies are convenient scapegoats but recent data shows no negative bias towards countries in the region

www.ft.com

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

3 years

'Southern African countries and firms in Kenya that boomed during the period of high initial trade preferences went bust when the Multi-Fiber Arrangement expired. Subsequent growth was driven by new countries, notably Ethiopia, and by new firms in Kenya.'

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

4 years

IMF statement on conclusion of staff mission visit to #Zambia . Does not sound like two parties are any closer on agreeing on a program.

IMF Staff Concludes visit to Zambia

www.imf.org

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

10 months

The results show that the excess premium estimated for SSA countries vanishes when structural factors - the budget process transparency, the informal sector importance, financial development and quality of public institutions - are accounted for.

Sub-Saharan Africa’s Risk Perception Premium: In the Search of Missing Factors

Policymakers from the sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region often flag a mispricing of their sovereign debt presumably originating from a perception risk by international investors that lead to "unjustif...

www.imf.org

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

4 years

Good thread on debt issues for African countries. DSSI repayment period has been extended from 3 to 5 years (with one-year grace period) so will stretch beyond hump in eurobond redemptions in 2024-25. But it does not materially reduce need for more financial aid to be mobilized.

Brad Setser

@Brad_Setser

4 years

A bit more on global debt issues, spurred by the @petersgoodman article. As noted in the NYT, debt service deferral cannot be the only way to help low income countries, as not all low income countries are highly indebted. Yet some countries really do have too much debt 1/x

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

2 years

Sri Lanka appears to be moving quicker in debt restructuring process than G20 Common Framework applicants. Japan, China and other creditors likely to agree on financial assurances relatively quick, in my view, despite disagreement in other foreign policy topics.

Jorgelina do Rosario

@jdorosario

2 years

Exclusive: Crisis-hit Sri Lanka strikes staff-level pact with IMF on loan -sources Scoop by @j_uditha via @Reuters

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

2 years

I will be speaking at today's @ChathamHouse conference on Emerging Powers in Africa: Regional and national economic linkages in Eastern and Southern Africa, which will be held in #Lusaka and online. Here is the agenda for those who might be interested:

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

2 years

Could become significant. Chinese researchers and policy officials are clearly not happy about US dictating global financial policy. Issuance out of a third financial centre could carry benefit for African and other issuers, but some carrots may be needed to agree to plan.

The China-Global South Project

@ChinaGSProject

2 years

Chinese researchers are now developing a new debt relief concept that is similar to the Brady Plan from the 1980s but this time would restructure developing world debt by bundling it together into a new RMB-denominated asset.

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

3 years

#Benin upgraded by Moody's to B1, equivalent to B+, on the back of A solid track record of fiscal consolidation and improvements in the structure of debt, rising economic resilience, with robust* growth prospects supported by ongoing structural reforms.

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

4 years

Celebrating #Ethiopia 's Prime Minister receiving the Nobel today.

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

9 months

Think we could see some panda bonds out of Africa in next few year, potentially "Brady-bond" type notes restructured through the "Shanghai Club".

Cross-border debt boom aids China’s efforts to widen renminbi use

Issuance of ‘panda’ and ‘dim sum’ debt hits record pace as economic slowdown depresses borrowing costs

www.ft.com

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

6 years

To clarify the point from yesterday. I do think #Kenya has a stronger potential in manufacturing than almost all other Sub-Saharan African countries and should be able to reverse trend in chart. Will need to improve infrastructure, business regulation and EAC integration further.

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

11 months

#Tanzania finally gets its B+ rating (from Fitch). Eurobond likely to follow but not until next year. Covered by REDD a couple of months ago. Moody's likely to upgrade Tanzania (solicited) rating to B+ too.

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

4 years

Largest Covid-19 disbursement so far (not counting #Morocco drawing the entirety of its PLL line). IMF expecting Tunisian economy to contract 4% in 2020. Executive Board Approves a US$745 Million Disbursement to Tunisia to Address the COVID-19 Pandemic

IMF Executive Board Approves a US$745 Million Disbursement to Tunisia to Address the COVID-19...

www.imf.org

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

6 years

Increased government spending continued to drive #Kenya economic growth for third year running in 2017. Meanwhile manufacturing fell below 10% of GDP for first time since 1975. That's a lot for Jubilee to turn around in four years. My take on @theterminal

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

6 years

Great keynote speech and insights on media's impact on #Africa from #Ghana president Nana Akufo-Addo at #Bloomberg #ABMI2017

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

4 years

Moody's concluded its review for downgrades of 4 sovereings, #Cameroon #Cotedivoire , #Ethiopia and #Senegal ) that have joined the G20 Debt Service Suspension Initative and decided not to downgrade as expected. Senegal put on - outlook due to risks form its high govt debt burden.

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

9 months

Also applies for "24-25 maturity wall for African sovereigns", which is highly concentrated to Egypt, Kenya and South Africa after buybacks and Ghana default.

The notorious wall of maturities revisited

Will it finally prove hard to hurdle?

www.ft.com

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

3 months

Admittedly not a great list but worth keeping in mind that US 10-year treasury yields were at 2.0-2.5% for most of the 2010s and are at 4.2% at present. #Kenya

Daniel Munevar

@danielmunevar

3 months

Track record of countries issuing benchmark sized US$ bonds with coupons above 9.5% over the last 20 years is not very good @Markbohlund @MwangoCapital

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

3 years

'Sub-Saharan Africa countries are also the least efficient when it comes to paying outstanding invoices. This column estimates that the size of government arrears in SSA was 4.26% of GDP in 2019, and likely increased by an average of 1.92pp of GDP in 2020.'

The invisible burden: How arrears could unleash a banking crisis

In sub-Saharan Africa, the government is one of the biggest purchasers of works and services in the economy. Countries in sub-Saharan Africa are also the least efficient when it comes to paying...

cepr.org

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

15 days

S&P has upgraded #Benin to 'BB-' from 'B+' to reflects its view of the strong economic outlook with growth to average 6.4% over 2024-27 thanks mostly to the authorities' efforts to diversify the economy through public investments and structural reforms.

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

7 months

Great chart and presentation by IMF's Chuku Chuku at IMF meeting in #Marrakech . #IMF

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

3 years

Very interesting read on Mario Draghi and Italy. Subscribe to Chartbook by @adam_tooze

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

4 years

Even more dramatic slide for #Angola due to triple whammy of lower oil output, fall in oil price and kwanza depreciation. On flip side both #Ethiopia and #Kenya are $100bn economy now and #Ghana ca $75bn. All 3 might slip due weaker currencies but will grow further beyond that.

Paul Wallace

@PaulWallace123

4 years

These numbers on #Zambia from @SPGlobalRatings show the extent of the country's economic slide. GDP will be just $18bn next year, having plummeted from $27bn in 2014. And debt to GDP's soared from 28% back then to >100% now.

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

5 years

The economics of mobile money; Harnessing the transformative power of technology to benefit the global poor | VOX, CEPR Policy Portal

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

4 years

It was a pleasure to be @ChinaAfrProject to discuss ongoing developments in #Angola and #Zambia covered by myself, @davidjgraves1 and other colleagues at REDD Intelligence. Please take a listen over the weekend and don't be afraid to get in touch.

The China-Global South Project

@ChinaGSProject

4 years

[ #PODCAST ] @Markbohlund joins us from London to discuss the worsening debt crisis in Zambia & Angola. He also explains why private creditors can't provide the kind of debt relief that so many academics, analysts & activists are calling for. Listen here:

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

3 years

Could be more significant than Corona vaccines over time.

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

3 years

Gripping radio program about Swedish Eurovision contestant Tusse with roots in the #DRC . Tusse: 10 facts about Sweden’s Eurovision 2021 singer via @wiwibloggs

Tusse: 10 facts about Sweden's Eurovision 2021 singer

Tusse will represent Sweden at Eurovision 2021 in Rotterdam with "Voices”. Find out more about the singer.

wiwibloggs.com

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

4 years

I could be wrong but think it is the first African DMD at the IMF. Think she will be great!

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

1 year

Very good documentary with Wanjira Wanjiru from @MathareSJustice and @DASHJOHNTEZ about #Kenya generation change. via @AJEnglish

Kenya: Music, activism and ending police violence

Disillusioned by electoral politics, an activist and a musician mobilise against police killings and government neglect.

www.aljazeera.com

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

7 years

@GlennKesslerWP @_SidVerma It's been a while since Carl Bildt was Sweden's foreign minister. Still tweeting though.

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

2 years

S&P: #Kenya Ratings Affirmed At 'B/B'; Outlook Stable. Stronger-than-forecast revenues in FY21/22 have more than compensated for higher spending on fuel and food subsidies and drought relief, leading to an estimated deficit contraction to 6.3% of GDP.

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

6 years

I fear that 2018 is going to be all about the upcoming elections with little real thought or effort on how to boost growth and diversify the economy. #Nigeria

Paul Wallace

@PaulWallace123

6 years

Here are five power brokers to watch as #Nigeria 's election season starts early. #Buhari #Atiku #Saraki #Tinubu #Osinbajo ?amp=1 @DulueMbachu @malingha

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

4 years

@M_PaulMcNamara Just started reading this but seems very interesting...

Banking on the State: The Financial Foundations of Lebanon - Hicham Safieddine

In 1943, Lebanon gained its formal political independence from France; only after two more decades did the country finally establish a national central bank. Inaugurated on April 1, 1964, the Banque...

www.sup.org

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

2 years

Merry Christmas everyone! Got it white un Stockholm this year.

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

4 years

#Zambia and #Djibouti approved for DSSI participation yesterday. Both are heavily indebted to China, but notably few loans from China Development Bank. None for Djibouti and only $575m (or 6% of total) for Zambia. #Angola will be a tougher nut to crack.

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

2 years

#Zambia defaulted in 2020. #Ethiopia and #Ghana may well default this year, and #Angola likely to struggle in 2023 and beyond if Chinese debt moratorium is not extended. Kenya and Rwanda have debt issues but not at risk in the next few years. More at REDD Intelligence.

Agathe Demarais

@AgatheDemarais

2 years

Debt repayment costs are rising fast for many African countries • African economies (🇦🇴🇬🇭🇿🇲🇷🇼🇪🇹🇰🇪) are unlikely to default this year or in 2023 • However, many of these countries will face trouble by 2024 - crunch year for debt repayments

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

3 years

#Angola gets DSSI extension over 1H21 approved by Paris Club. No news on 3-year China debt moratorium, but Chinese may be unwilling to allow for continued debt service deferment if Angola pays $1.1bn due to UK-domiciled private creditor in February

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

1 year

Disagree. "Ghana is unlike recent defaulters such as Zambia and Sri Lanka, where years of government profligacy and mismanagement brought fiscal problems to the brink of crisis. Ghana has a history of tackling fiscal problems before they get out of hand."

Ghana: admission of default is a welcome reality check

Risks are priced in with yields on the country’s sovereign bonds barely budging on the news

www.ft.com

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

10 months

Africa has a new investment grade credit! Mauritius gets BBB- rating from S&P. Let's see how long it lasts as new sovereign ratings are more likely to deteriorate than improve (partly due to increased indebtedness). #Mauritius

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

1 year

IMF Executive Board Approves US$3 Billion Extended Credit Facility Arrangement for Ghana

Large external shocks in recent years have exacerbated Ghana’s pre-existing fiscal and debt vulnerabilities, resulting in a loss of international market access, increasingly constrained domestic...

www.imf.org

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

2 years

Howard French in the @guardian "By the end of the century, Africa will be home to 40% of the world’s population – and nowhere is this breakneck-pace development happening faster than this 600-mile stretch between Abidjan and Lagos."

Megalopolis: how coastal west Africa will shape the coming century

The long read: By the end of the century, Africa will be home to 40% of the world’s population – and nowhere is this breakneck-pace development happening faster than this 600-mile stretch between...

www.theguardian.com

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

5 years

How to Restructure Sovereign Debt: Lessons from Four Decades via @PIIE

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

3 years

#Tanzania 's request for disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) and Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) to be discussed (and likely approved) by IMF Executive board on Tuesday 7th of September.

IMF Executive Board Calendar

As part of the Fund's increased transparency, the tentative calendar of the formal meetings and seminars of the Executive Board for the next seven days is shown below. Please note that the calendar...

www.imf.org

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

2 years

Very happy to share this. "In this episode, REDD Intelligence’s CEEMEA team looks at Ghana’s increasingly troubling debt situation. As Ghana reportedly seeks as much as USD 3bn in financing from the IMF, we ask if a restructuring is now an inevitability."

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

1 year

@Macky_Sall Paludan n'est pas Suédois. Il est Danois ms président.

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

3 months

"Our outlook on #Kenya remains negative, indicating a 1-in-3 chance of a downgrade. We could lower the rating if external refinancing pressures continue to mount, or if we see limited progress on fiscal consolidation, further raising debt and interest."

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

3 years

Important: ''In addition to the fiscal consolidation efforts envisioned under the program, the Chadian authorities have made an official request to restructure their external debt under the G20 Common Framework for debt restructuring, which will help restore debt sustainability.'

Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

3 years

For the Chad watchers: 'IMF staff completed policy discussions with the authorities on a new medium-term program that could be supported by IMF resources of about $560 million under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and the Extended Fund Facility (EFF)'

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

2 years

#Benin has made some excellent borrowing decisions says @emsovdebt Gregory Smith, author of Where credit is due, at #BloombergInvest Focus on Africa invest in London. @raziakkhan says successful conclusion of Common Framework restructuring needed to entice more applicants.

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

4 years

#Zambia external debt stock estimated at $27bn might concern one or two bondholders...

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

2 months

Hard to understand rational for #Benin to buy back the 2026 at par. So little outstanding (EUR 176m) that hard to see that it would be an issue to repay/refinance in 2026, and 2032 is nine years away...

Kevin Carey

@Kevin_Carey_WB

2 months

Benin / Eurobond tender offer: "The Republic is making the Offers as part of its proactive debt management strategy. The Republic is offering to purchase for cash, subject to the conditions set forth in the Tender Offer Memorandum, any and all of its outstanding 2026 Notes ..."

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

11 months

S&P on #Zambia . "We understand that the last three domestic bond and bill auctions have been undersubscribed as nonresident investor participation has stopped, given their uncertainty around the restructuring parameters,".

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

2 years

Guess the ESG issue was a given. IMF is assuming a USD 2bn issue in 2023 when Chinese debt-servicing moratorium ends but it has been clear for some time that #Angola would return to eurobond market ahead of August elections. Fitch upgrade was very timely. Keep an eye on kwanza

Joe Bavier

@JoeBavier

2 years

“The balance sheet of Sonangol should reflect in a very transparent way the assets that they have,” de Sousa said. “Probably the due diligence will take 12 months, 15 months. If there are still some issues to solve, probably we're talking about 2 yrs.”

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

1 year

Hard to see how #Angola is going to find the USD to radically increase payments to Chinese creditors as three -year debt servicing moratorium ends this month.

José Miguel Cerdeira

@JMCerdeira

1 year

... (1) the decrease in the sale of foreign exchange to the private economy is likely to have been more significant, as the Treasury (provider of ~30% of FX) has been absent from the market for an extended period. (Very large external debt repayment occurred in March, btw). (+)

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

6 years

Sorry #Ghana , the African country most likely to reach investment-grade credit rating (bar Namibia reversing its recent downgrade) over the next decade is not likely to be you, but #Senegal . My take on recent overhaul of GDP statistics on @TheTerminal

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

4 years

A very good piece. Asset managers under pressure from shrinking fees likely to feel forced to play hardball wirh distressed sovereign borrowers in frontier markets. Same goes for many commodity traders struggling to move their goods. via @financialtimes

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

3 years

Good thread. Interest payments on local-currency debt dominate debt-servicing costs in most lower-middle income countries (e.g. 70-80% in Ghana and Kenya) as interest rates higher than on external debt. But thinking that this can be easily addressed by QE is a fallacy.

Amer Bisat

@abisat

3 years

1/7. Warning: a geeky thread on #EmergingMarkets “original sin”. There is a seemingly unanimous view that local currency borrowing lessens EM vulnerabilities and allows countries to engage in counter-cyclical policies. I am not convinced.

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

4 years

#Zambia proceeding towards restructuring its debt. Does play into wider story of China pushing for similar treatment of commercial debt in order to agree to an extension of DSSI into 2021.

David Orbay-Graves

@davidjgraves1

4 years

🚨🚨🚨 BREAKING NEWS 🚨🚨🚨 Zambia launches bondholder identification process, signalling restructuring negotiations with bondholders are set to kick up a gear. REDD CEEMEA has the full story, available here:

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

3 years

Bank of #Ghana increased its purchases of government bonds sharply in September, lifting its holding from 17% to 23% of the market. With government spending highly inflexible and external financing less available, central bank financing is likely to increase further in 2021.

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

4 years

A good 'op-ed' from finance professional involved in African eurobonds. It is true that scope for asset managers to afford debt-service relief is very limited. Their main job is to steer clear of credit losses. Warning signals from the likes of #Zambia have been around for years.

The China-Global South Project

@ChinaGSProject

4 years

Letter to the Editor: "While I completely understand the notion of painting "bondholders" as part of the African debt relief problem, I think the tendency to vilify our industry, is misplaced and overly simplistic."

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

4 years

#Ethiopia rumoured to be seeking a similar three-year debt moratorium with bilateral creditor i(e. China) as #Angola on external non-commercial debt with a potential saving of about $2.1bn, primarily from deferring debt service obligations over 2020-23.

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

2 years

Probably best to book those Eurostar tickets before they stop accepting payments in GBP...

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

4 years

#Mozambique likely to be one of the main beneficiaries of IMF debt relief. Still relatively small sum of $54mn (0.4% of GDP). Bilateral negotiations for a 6-month moratorium on debt service with China are ongoing.

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

3 years

I contributed to this article on Ghana's eurobond issuance plans with some divergent views from myself, @RencapMan and others. Happy to share my views with others, including report on #Ghana 's 2021 budget and bond issuance plans published for REDD Intelligence earlier today.

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

6 years

Good piece by head of the IMF's Africa division. Don't get too focused on Eurobonds and China. Domestic borrowing (both in % interest and crowding out private sector) often more costly. The Debt Challenge to African Growth by Abebe Aemro Selassie @ProSyn

The Debt Challenge to African Growth | by Abebe Aemro Selassie - Project Syndicate

Abebe Aemro Selassie says that with interest costs rising, Sub-Saharan Africa needs a new strategy to keep development on track.

www.project-syndicate.org

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

5 years

As a child growing up in Harare, I believed there was a Whitney Houston song that went: ‘Oh! I wanna dance in Zimbabwe, wanna feel the heat in Zimbabwe.’

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

4 years

How Angela Merkel’s great migrant gamble paid off

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

2 years

Terms of outstanding loans from #China Eximbank to #Nigeria as of 30 Sep 2012 Might interest @D_Brautigam @danielmunevar @YunnanChen @emsovdebt .

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Mark Bohlund

@Markbohlund

3 years

'What Africa might need is its own Japan -- a pioneering country that can industrialize first, and then invest in the rest of the continent. That country might be Ghana, which has strong institutions, political stability, and good education and literacy.' I would bet on #Kenya .