Sierkovitz @Sierkovitz Twitter profile

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Sierkovitz

8 months

For those of you who are on the fence whether to follow me or not, here is a thread I'll pin, that will let you know who am I, what is my content like and introduce you to the last few years of my work, looking at what was there and what to expect in the future. 1/27

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

4 months

I am sick and tired of some things! We have a 19th reprint of Lightning Helix in MKM. 7 Different arts. But WotC did nothing to make the rest of the cards in the cycle. Isn't it about time?

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

4 months

OK, can someone explain to me: why aa pun-loving Magic design team didn't call this card Investi-gator???

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

2 years

Once you see it, you can't unsee it. I dedicate this new format to this pipe dream:

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

4 months

Does this work like I think it does?

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

1 year

My parenting tip, lvl pro. Watched Mandalorian with my daughter. Now every time she questions why do we have to do something I just say "This is the way", she replies "This is the way" and does it.

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

2 years

Wingmantle Chaplain is the mythic uncommon of the early DMU data. With the Game in Hand Win Rate of 66.7% only 2 cards in the whole set do better: Archangel of Wrath and Sheoldred. Unassuming 0/3 for 4 mana beats all the other cards. But the reason for it may not be obvious. 1/7

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

9 months

In my latest episode I talk about the numbers behind Talion, the Kindly Lord. It is an interesting riddle to solve: which number is optimal. Luckily, in numbers related questions, numbers also can bring a solution. So here it is - the Talion thread. 1/X

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

3 months

The irony of the fact that Crimestopper Sprite will be now committing a crime on ETB does not escape me. Who will watch the watchmen?

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

7 months

I looked at the Mark Rosewater numbers of rare distribution in the new packs. The fabled 24 rare sealed pool will happen once every 1 880 000 000 000 000 000 sealed pools. Thats slightly less likely than winning lottery in UK. Twice in a row. Tag me if you open one.

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

2 years

Todays graph of the day: Bans in Limited across Magic history.

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

7 months

Today a short case study on why Imodane's Recruiter is such a backbreaking card. In three pictures I can hopefully convince you if you still don't get what the hype is all about. But at the same time it will hopefully show you why Haste is such an under-appreciated ability. 1/x

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

7 months

OK, this card and 1972 movie from Werner Herzog. This can't be a coincidence? Which WotC staff is a Herzog fan?

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

2 years

Kamigawa hot take: this interaction is something you should be looking for in your RU and RW draft decks. Mark: Kunai goes face as well.

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

4 months

You rarely see such an imbalance on a Magic card. This should definitely cost GGGR - otherwise the avocado to chilli ratio is completely off and the quakemole will be inedible.

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

1 year

"Don't mention 17Lands" seems to be the rule of the PT broadcast. No issues with the coverage team; they do amazing work. I question the rules, that don't allow to attribute hard and unpaid work of the 17L team, but use the data.

Magic - Don't mention the source! ;)

Watch Magic's clip titled "Don't mention the source! ;)"

clips.twitch.tv

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

9 months

Continuing with WOE mini combos in draft. My favourite is initiating a never-ending cascade with Yenna, Redtooth Regent and Three Blind Mice. If you play Yenna t4, saga t5 + copy it with Yenna, you make a token saga. Chapters 2&3 of Three Blind Mice can copy a token... 1/3

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

7 months

WotC announced a new type of product that will combine Set Boosters and Draft Boosters. We don't have 100% info, but there is a significant chunk we do know. How will the new product impact draft? Not by much at first sight. 1/12

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

8 months

Today, a short thread with what WotC is - in my opinion - doing right. They get their share of criticisms, I also criticise some decisions, but from time to time it is good to think about positives not to become a grumpy curmudgeon that can't find joy in life. 1/15

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

5 months

So I had to spend Xmas all alone this year. My wife had to go back to her family in Italy and I couldn’t join on behalf of the animals. My daughter called me today to check the Xmas tree - she left me a little present hidden in the branches :)

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

3 years

Call me old-fashioned, but speed runs today are not what they used to be.

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

3 months

It always frustrated me that despite playing in 2 Pre-Releases I could redeem only one code on Arena. That is no longer the case - you can redeem up to 5 now - see the text at the bottom. Getting some codes from people who don’t play Arena is now officially #MtgStonks

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

7 months

Gruff Triplets is - in my opinion - a badly designed card for limited. But possibly not for the reasons you may be thinking. It is definitely powerful - one of the strongest bombs in recent years. But I accept the existence of such cards. You win some, you lose some. 1/9

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

8 months

Up the Beanstalk (UTB) is now a staple in constructed formats. It spread like wildfire: 12.5% modern decks, 7% standard, 4% in pioneer and even ~3% of legacy decks play this unassuming enchantment. But what about Limited? When and how to tap into its power? 1/21

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

1 year

March of the Machine is arguable a set with the most complex booster pack architecture. No dedicated rare slot, instead a double sided slot, single sided slot, Battle slot, land slot and a multiverse legend. How can this impact draft? 🧵 1/11

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

6 months

Can't wait to draft Raugrin decks in KTK - color combination looks pretty sweet.

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

2 years

@lostmyplanet @Fur1Kurisauri0 @crazyunlikeafox @0xabad1dea Funnily enough, the "one who knows where the honey is" was most likely originally a euphemism, because the original name of bear became taboo... I mean, if that does not show the cycle, I don't know what does (also no idea where the honey is).

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

2 months

OTJ spoilers are fully released so it is time to look at the set from the perspective of the removal and creature sizing. And this one looks very unique in the perspective of the recent sets. With particularly the sizing of the creatures looking unique. 1/15

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

8 months

Today I wanted to write about the tragedy of the c̶o̶m̶m̶o̶n̶s̶ Mythics. Design team in recent years frequently puts buildaround cards at high rarity and my feeling is, this strategy doesn't pay off. Problem is, because of the high rarity, those cards will be picked early. 1/x

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

13 days

Decided to do some field testing of the Mount mechanic

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

7 months

OK, I gotta admit "Draft Boosters" was not on my list of "what gets banned today". I guess time to write a thread about what the changes potentially mean later today.

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

1 year

So card packs come from several factories, in Europe, from Belgium. It mean that in some localisations, there is no physical chance of opening the one ring. It would be fair to let people know. There is a difference between chasing unlikely odds and chasing non-existing odds.

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

4 months

I love @scryfall "translations" of card names...

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

1 month

I sometimes struggle with understanding why a card's good and that's when I look for analogies from the past. Here I put some OTJ cards in context of great limited cards to, hopefully, help you visualising their power by analogy. Keep in mind - perfect analogies don't exist! 1/12

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

1 year

Jokes aside, the concept that shuffler is out to get you is ripe in Magic community. It is fed by desire to blame ones misplays or even plain bad luck on some malicious entity as it removes responsibility. But there is plenty of data showing that shuffler is just fine: 🧵

Gavin Verhey

@GavinVerhey

1 year

We employ a team of people that sit downstairs at Wizards and watch all Arena games simultaneously to make sure the right people get mana screwed or flooded at just the right times. Well, it's not so much a team as it is just a guy named George. We all respect George. #wotcstaff ?

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

8 months

Why I love @ReidDuke 's draft 2 deck 📷. Watching the Worlds as I write and just saw Reid Duke's deck. it is not the most powerful deck ever, but it is an impressive showcase of draft navigation with a well laid plan. All cards are in sync and hopefully I can explain why. 1/13

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

2 years

Hearing my daughter downstairs explaining to my wife: And he had this 7/7 creature with trample and would kill me next turn but i trapped it in the tower and won. Mission accomplished.

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

4 months

Finally a vasive creature

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

11 months

@lsv @GabySpartz The problem with this being tempted by the ring is you were already both legends. Congrats and may happiness be you overarching theme!

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

3 years

"Spend all your mana if possible" is the no. 1 limited heuristic. Those raised on @lsv and @Marshall_LR heard it countless times. Thanks to play data from @17lands we can finally show just how important is it to build and play your deck with maximising mana use in your mind 1/x

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

3 months

It took a good part of the decade, but we made it. Looking at the 17Lands data for the top players, in week 2 of the MKM format, the highest win rate deck is..... Simic! Overtaking Boros by a fraction of a percentage, but I couldn't ignore such a historic moment. 1/3

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

1 month

While I ready my Stetson for the prerelease, I remembered of the analysis I started doing some weeks ago. To answer the burning question: What's with the hats, y'all? Are we lining in the hat era of Magic and if so - how unique are out times compared to the past? 1/x

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

2 months

Alex @Chord_O_Calls visited me in Cornwall was an immense pleasure. We walked, talked, recorded (coming to YT soon), had some local sea food, co-piloted a draft and had tons of fun. He is even lovelier in person than on stream, which is a tough ask. I’m still bad at selfies.

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

6 months

Me in the next 3 months:

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

1 month

@NileJoanRivers One game. Reid would instantly recognise this is the time loop situation - his observation powers are just too good. Once he realises that he will instantly concede to free the person from the loop, because that is the kind of a person he is.

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

5 months

This made me quite angry, despite the light meme format. People in design and coverage were always the fig leaf that saved the image of WotC as a company. Them getting fired en masse despite, allegedly, good financial results is a very worrying development.

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

9 months

When limited grinders get excited about a card, it's worth paying attention. Today we will focus on cards top players are high on, while players who are not in the 17Lands "top" category, pick them slightly lower. It is a good idea to move those cards up your pick orders. 1/x

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

6 months

Wondering how excellence looks like? This graph links trophy rate and win rate of 17Lands users in BO3 drafts based on all-time leaderboard. See that solitary dot on the right? That's Jean-Emmanuel Depraz. Wow. But why am I obsessing about the link between those two stats? 1/4

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

23 days

For all of you complaining about too many hats on Magic cards: I can guarantee you that if this thing was a common creature where you live, you would never leave home without a good head cover.

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

7 months

While waiting for the B&R announcement - why not appreciate the best format ever - completely (ish) ban proof (see comments for the „actually” exceptions)

Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

2 years

Todays graph of the day: Bans in Limited across Magic history.

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

2 months

Here are three cards I think might be surprisingly playable in OTJ Limited. For no reason whatsoever I placed them in a wreath made of all 7 Oblivion Rings you can find in the OTJ Play Boosters.

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

7 months

I am lecturing a Project Management course and reached out to WotC for help with a guest lecture. @MichaelJMajors kindly agreed to talk about managing a set release. It was amazing. How to run projects through a lens of a very unique product. And those guys made a cameo.

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

8 months

Return of the JED Congrats!

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

2 months

There were some interesting discussions about the state of Magic in the last couple of days, and I thought - why not add my POV? Especially as a counterbalance as the threads I read were oozing negativity, and my outlook is much more positive, if not without criticisms. 1/x

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

2 months

I know this card has a similar name to Disinformation Campaign - don't get fooled. This is Dovin's Acuity. Draft accordingly. There might be an Esper deck for it in the limited. I am willing to try out if it can work - white removal aligns well with what is wants to do. 1/2

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

9 months

There are several cute build-around potential cards in Wilds of Eldraine and I will slowly try to highlight those. Today we start with Agatha's Vile Cauldron and Gingerbrute. Cauldron suffers from 2 problems: getting creatures into GY and getting relevant abilities. 1/3

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

1 year

Damn, that was a collection of great games, kudos to the commentary team. Side note: I understand WotC doesn't want commentators to use 3rd party names, but in that case maybe better to refrain from using @17lands data instead of using it without attribution.

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

6 months

My morning discovery is that the thing I planned to play today doesn't work for me :(

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

8 months

Relaxed* Friday Content: I am a very bad Vorthos, but did we have a war within a color pair before? Because Golgari in WOE is sweets, but their signposts are a girl who swore to eradicate sweets and a literal apex predator of gingerbreads with a necklace made of their heads.

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

3 years

Long Data thread ahead! With first data from STX starting to pour in @17lands , I thought to take a deeper look at Lessons and Learn spells. The new mechanic is definitely powerful, but so far we never dived deeper into what is great and what is not so hot about it. 1/21

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

5 months

Thinking about my Ikoria draft yesterday and OG companion was the best limited mechanic in history. Impacting draft pick order instantly, adding to replayability, busted on power level but at a cost. My eternal gratitude to @Grumpherys and team for that masterpiece of design. 1/2

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

2 months

Well that was pretty fortunate bumping into Sir Ian McKellan on a random walk in London and he shook hands with my daughter…

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

7 months

Time to put WOE to bed. I thought for a long time about how to send it off, and in the end it struck me - best to do it through the lens of cards that were not in the set. Here are the cards I would put in the Enchanted Tales slot to make it better? Different? 1/21

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

1 year

So, odds of opening the 1/1 ring are 1 in 3 000 000. Pretty small. But there is a bounty much more difficult, albeit with no monetary value. Being on a pod where 9 Nazgûl are opened. But let's not jump ahead of ourselves. On average a draft pod will contain 0.9 Nazgûl. 1/3

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

4 months

What? @Marshall_LR didn't get this card for preview? Call Alquist Proft because a crime has been committed.

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

2 months

Dear me, the longer I look at the spoiler the more I think how pushed this set is. And a bonus sheet made of bangers and money (or bangers and money) on top of that... If it works we are in for a treat! If it doesn't - mercy on us all.

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

4 months

A simple but pretty powerfully looking curve-out in MKM limited with a potential to take over the game very rapidly: Neat part: unlike Food or Treasure, Clues don't need tapping to sac. Your 4/4 flying creature that will be a prime target for removal can still give you value.

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

14 days

Instead of playing the Qualifier on Arena I had my daughter’s birthday party on the beach today. It was fun, bbq, cake, paddle-boarding, friends, sun, sea. I have no regrets. I also have sunburn. Still better than losing to Bonny Pall in round 5.

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

1 year

No Relaxed Friday today. Can't relax knowing that Rob, founder of @17Lands had to pay a serious sum to run 17L from his own pocket. He puts enough work into already, to have to pay on top of that. So pls retweet and consider becoming Every $ counts!

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

2 months

Mini- 🧵: With release of play boosters, it was feared that smaller packs will make it harder to get enough playables in the draft. WotC replied that they took that into account and trimmed the low impact commons. Did they deliver? Spoiler: looks like they did. 1/13

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

23 days

I never play much in Mythic. I usually get there and that's it. Recently I started wondering - is it part cowardice? So this season I decided to try to get into #250 . And it worked! Believe in yourself a bit more, maybe you are not as bad as you think!

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

10 months

Alright - today I will do a rare post about something that annoys me. Companion app. What is the point of it if it doesn't keep my event history? I play an FNM and 2 hours after, the standings are gone somewhere. Isn't the point of such app to keep the track of your records?

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

7 months

I woke up today with 5k followers on Twitter. For which I am grateful - I'll use this as a motivation to do exactly the same as before - content that tries to be accurate, make data more understandable, and use it as a space that promotes Magic in a positive way. Thank you all!

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

2 years

Doing research for my upcoming episode I was looking through some trophy decks at @17Lands (btw - very underused feature: ) And found this. Whoever drafted it: wow. Once in a format achievement.

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

1 year

@NumotTheNummy "I may or may not have worked on the game" Morgan Freeman narrating: "They have not"

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@Sierkovitz

4 months

First couple of days of the new format behind us - time to look a bit deeper into the @17Lands data and see what the top cards are. But before that, an updated color pair win rate graph. ~75% of the data comes from Day 2, so there are some minor changes. 1/19

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

5 months

Food for thought to limited fans on how important Limited is to general Magic population. If it was, ONE would not be even close to where it is in this poll. Nor would be LCI. But they are.

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

1 month

No data today!

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

1 year

If you wanted a worrying graph about ONE draft - here is one. Most color pairs don't have commons that perform OK. I usually use a 56% GiH WR cut off to measure OK cards. In ONE 6 color pairs have <10 commons that have that WR. In BRO it was 0, DMU - 1, NEO - 2. 1/x

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@Sierkovitz

4 months

Do you know what these cards have in common? They are the only 2 green lower rarity cards since NEO that create a creature token on ETB. Both too costly to be realistically relevant in a modern limited format. Recently green is getting the sharp end of the stick. 1/9

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

5 months

I feel honoured and humbled by the 2023 Limmie for best LR guest, courtesy of @Marshall_LR and @lsv . Thanks my mom, @fakejakebrowne and @17lands and congratulate @TBSdash et al. on excellent contributions. Since awards are virtual, I extended the empty space on my mantlepiece:

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

3 years

New D&D expansion #MTGDND brings d20 rolls toMagic. Here is how to look at these random effects and my thoughts on some of the cards. Firstly, majority of the cards have 1-9 as baseline effect, 10-19 as bonus and 20 as a large success leading to these percentages: 1/x

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@Sierkovitz

1 month

OTJ is upon us so time to look at the day 1 data. Keep in mind - day 1 data has many issues. First: small sample size. Second: people still don't know what they are doing. Take that into account while reading and apply caution in concluding. 1/12

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

9 months

Not all card combos in draft can be as spectacular as unstoppable cascade of mice, but that doesn't mean they are not worth talking about. Today's mini combo is a combination of a rare and a common. Meet Gumdrop Poisoner and a modern staple Not Dead After All. 1/X

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

2 years

Before set comes out let's look at the numbers behind the Milli-Vanilli creatures - a cycle of 5 commons that mill 3 cards and sometimes will let you draw a card, sometimes will become a slightly larger vanilla creature. Each of the five draws different types of cards. 1/15

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@Sierkovitz

6 months

In non related: No one: My Brain: Courser of Screwfix

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@Sierkovitz

2 years

Thanks to @Marshall_LR I am officially no longer the worse equipped streamer on the planet. Thanks so much! And one of the stickers found a home. I still have to figure out what to do with Target bags… Bonus cat and dog background

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@Sierkovitz

1 year

My early pick for the best Ring-Bearer in LTR limited is Bill the Pony. Can't be blocked by much (20% of creatures have power 1 or less), slams for 4 if needed with loads of food generators. Can't wait to leech opponents life with a tiny horse.

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@Sierkovitz

1 month

🏆 #4 OK, this format is over for me. Can't realistically beat this deck. I thought I will train wreck because mana was questionable, but turns out power negates a lot of problems and treasures matter. @fireshoes you won't see such sweetness on PT. 7-1, lost to mana once.

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@Sierkovitz

8 months

Main complaint about data in Magic are absolute opinions. "This card is busted because it has a high wr". You hear such arguments all the time. Using data as a hammer to quench any discussion annoys me too. This thread aims to look at win rate with a bit more subtlety. 1/19

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@Sierkovitz

2 months

I found it funny and sad that @Marshall_LR had to confirm I would be back in LR. We disagreed on an uncommon. We are opinionated. Yes, sparks will fly. No, it won't make me like Marshall less - actually reverse is more likely. We don't need to all think the same. Pic not rel.

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

8 months

5: Reprints making cards cheaper. The extra slot in recent sets finally starts dropping costs for some cards. It is a good thing, that you can but a Leland of the Void for 1€ if you really want to. And it's equally good that a 90€ timeshifted foill exists. 2/15

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

8 months

Please, if you are disappointed with Ben and Ethan, could you add me to the list of people you are disappointed with as well? Thank you!

Ethan Saks

@lordtupperware

8 months

To this person, and anyone else who feels threatened or defensive by the idea of privilege, I do not mean that I don't work hard or am not deserving of what I've accomplished. I just recognize that I already have a leg up because of my race and gender 1/2

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@Sierkovitz

2 years

Christmas starts well with getting awarded a Limmy by @Marshall_LR and @lsv - thanks guys, that really made my day! I would like to thank my mom, Halvar, God of Battle, Dean Kianne of Applied Maths Departament at Strixhaven, and last, but definitely not least, @17Lands guys!

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@Sierkovitz

2 years

Ok, I learned that @TappyToeClaws is a microbiologist and am thrilled to know - are there any more of us, tamers of the unseen, in MtG twittersphere?

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

2 years

Hopefully this sheds a bit of light on other factors that impact card win rate. Raw power is important but disproportional availability is something that time and time again proves to make good cards great and great cards amazing. 7/7

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

1 year

Little known fact, Polish cuisine also has stuffed pasta. I am not nana level pasta maker but this batch looks alright. My uszka (little ears) will be cooked and eaten in barszcz (beetroot soup). Uszka filling is onion and porcini mushrooms. Have a great holidays!

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

3 months

This plot is the best piece of data visualisation in Magic in recent years. Simple, informative, relevant. What more do you need?

Magic Data Science

@mtg_ds

3 months

This plot summarizes win rates by color in MKM -- you won't be surprised to see White is the strongest, but it is very clearly so. And black is... not where you want to be. The RD'd thread below has examples from past formats, which highlight that MKM is relatively balanced.

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

1 year

Just a friendly reminder: Shuffler is not rigged Hand smoothing works exactly as it should Arena gives you a mixture of lands exactly as would be expected by chance

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Sierkovitz

@Sierkovitz

7 months

Remember - if you follow me you will soon be surrounded by middle-aged balding men rambling incoherently about percentages in a card game about magical creatures. And I think it is beautiful.

Spencer Greenberg 🔍

@SpencrGreenberg

7 months

Imagine you lived in a universe where whatever you give your attention to gets drawn to you. So if you pay attention to cute dogs on the street, soon you'll be followed all the time by cute dogs. And if you pay attention to the angry guy muttering to himself, soon there will be

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