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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

2 years

We estimate the recent surge in swap rates means that UK house prices are 37% overvalued based on mortgage affordability. Though other metrics suggest prices are less stretched, we forecast prices will drop by 10%-15% over the next two years:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

4 years

The poor economic backdrop means our state-based & national election models both suggest President Trump will lose the popular vote. But while economic factors point to a clear Democrat win, voter turnout and the evolution of the pandemic could be crucial

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

4 years

Spain's 23% fall in GDP in H1 2020 is the largest of all major economies that have reported so far. In our latest research briefing, we set out a series of health and economic factors which combine to explain why Spain fared so badly:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

7 years

Spain has overtaken Italy on almost every economic metric and we expect the gap to widen over the next decade:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

5 months

We estimate that UK house prices are still more than 20% overvalued based on the affordability of mortgage payments. This is likely to mean transactions and lending remain very low, and that the house price correction has further to run:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

6 years

The average European #migrant to the #UK arriving in 2016 will contribute £78,000 more to the UK #publicfinances than they take out in public services/benefits over their entire time in UK, our report finds:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

8 years

Overall debt in #China now exceeds 300% of GDP

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

1 year

House prices have fallen rapidly in several economies over recent months and more pain looks likely in 2023. The speed of these declines is comparable to the worst period of the GFC. Are we heading for a similar nasty global housing bust?

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

2 years

Whether eurozone inflation is temporary is hotly debated, but it doesn't matter for interest rates over the longer term. We expect rising longevity and low fertility rates to result in an oversupply of savings that will keep interest rates & inflation low:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

10 months

Today’s Global #Manufacturing #PMI resumed its decline and it remains firmly below the threshold for expansion, posting 48.8 in June. Our view is that low global demand for goods and low investment will hamper industrial activity across the world this year

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

4 years

The #pandemic will badly hit #emergingmarket economies. Limitations in health care, fiscal buffers, economic structure make #EMs vulnerable. Our scorecard ranks EMs exposure: LatAm and Africa worst affected: Coronavirus latest:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

6 years

US-China #tradewar will cast shadow on global growth. - 10% #tariffs on $200bn + existing 25% on $50bn = drag of 0.4ppt in 2019 #GDP - 25% #tariffs by Jan 1 would have more significant effect - escalation to all imports would cut growth by 1ppt.

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

2 years

A recent book by Goodhart and Pradhan claims that demographic changes will soon cause a substantial, structural rise in inflation and interest rates. But our analysis suggests the opposite, as our latest note explains:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

2 years

Though elevated gas prices are the bigger risk for the European economy, our modelling suggests that a cold winter in Europe would require drastic cuts in gas consumption – consistent with hard rationing – in Germany and Italy. More here:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

9 years

#Greece needs a "Marshall plan" but prospects remain gloomy. Next 48 hours will be crucial http://t.co/vXYeHnTDx1 http://t.co/kPp1X74dDc

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

4 years

Our newly-launched eurozone Recovery Tracker suggests the initially strong recovery started to peter out through August, as the number of infections rose in key countries. This contributed to lower mobility & consumption, adding to the risks for Q4 GDP:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

7 years

Without a new productivity miracle it is hard to see global growth improving much from its modest pace:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

4 years

The US #FederalReserve says its purchases of #T -bills aren't #QE we agree with Dallas Fed chief Kaplan: it’s a "QE derivative". We doubt it’s the main driver of risk asset' rise but if investors’ think otherwise it could spell trouble for the #Fed :

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

3 years

We find no evidence of de-globalisation of European economies due to the pandemic. After initial disruption, intermediate goods trade has rebounded faster than overall trade, while production remains geographically fragmented:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

4 years

We are proud to announce that we have been ranked top in Focus Economics' Best Economic Forecaster Awards more than any other forecaster over the past three years. Read more here: #economics #macroeconomics

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

2 years

The global semiconductor shortage has passed its peak, as chipmakers have ramped up production significantly since the middle of 2021. But supplies are likely to remain tight, with demand still strong and chip factories running at high utilisation rates:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

2 years

Similar inflation outcomes in CEE demonstrate the limits of monetary policy in combating the current surge in inflation. Slovakia has had much looser monetary policy but its inflation rate has been similar to those who have hiked aggressively since 2021:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

8 years

The #valueofkew and impact revealed. Economic value of Royal Botanic Gardens @kewgardens .

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

2 years

#Silver as a distinct #asset class should be considered as a strategic #investment #allocation within a global multi-asset portfolio, according to our new research. We find that investors would benefit from an average 4-6 percent silver allocation. @SilverInstitute

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

4 years

We expect the FOMC to reaffirm its very dovish forward guidance at this week's meeting and it may be ready to link it explicitly to an inflation or unemployment target. We now forecast rate lift-off will take place in mid-2024. Read our FOMC preview here:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

1 year

While we expect 2023 to be a difficult year for #cities in #APAC , we still see some bright spots. Among these are #Bengaluru & #Hyderabad in south #India , both of which we #forecast #GDP growth of more than 6% in 2023. Read our latest outlook:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

4 years

Our US Recovery Tracker edged down 0.2ppts in the last week of July. The sugar rush from reopenings has clearly faded and its evident the economic recovery won't gain traction until a medical solution to the pandemic is found:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

5 years

In our new #EM ranking, we rank our forecast fastest-growing #emergingmarkets up to 2028, based on analysis of the key drivers of capital deepening and total factor productivity growth. #India , #Philippines , #Indonesia , and #China top the league:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

4 years

The resilience of China's exports, in the face of the coronavirus-induced global downturn, points to significant gains in market share. While in large part temporary, the gains show there is no need to be negative about prospects for Chinese manufacturing:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

6 years

In the #Eurozone , strengthening inflation paired with a lower growth outlook means the #ECB is facing a classic stagflationary shock. Headline EZ #inflation jumped to 1.9% y/y in May, highest a year. In #France , inflation reached a six-year high of 2.0%:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

7 years

Leaving the euro would not be a quick fix for Italy's economic woes - there are deep-seated structural problems:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

4 years

As the #Wuhan #nCoV #coronavirus outbreak and responses intensify globally, we have further revised down our #China growth forecast and now project 5.4% growth for 2020, compared with 6% previously. We expect Q1 growth to be cut my more than 2ppts:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

3 years

We've become more optimistic that the long-term damage to the world economy from the coronavirus crisis will be less than we originally anticipated, with the level of GDP set to be reduced by less than 1% over the long-term. Our latest note explains why:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

10 months

Private wealth has strongly risen across the world since 1980, and we predict this rise to continue through to 2050, with important implications for asset returns, international capital flows, and inequality:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

4 years

Our deep-dive into the consumer data suggests the eurozone's impressive consumption rebound is quickly running out of steam. We also see increasing divergence across countries, with those having weaker fiscal responses lagging the rest:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

1 year

We are delighted to announce Ryan Sweet has been appointed as our Chief US Economist. Ryan has extensive experience in working with top-tier business leaders and investors, and is one of the most accurate forecasters of the US economy according to Bloomberg and MarketWatch.

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

4 years

The #coronavirus pandemic will badly hit all #emergingmarket economies. Limitations in health care, fiscal buffers, and economic structure make #EMs vulnerable. Our scorecard ranks EMs exposure and finds LatAm and African regions will be worst affected:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

9 years

#Greece debt swap offer likely to be 1st salvo in lengthy negotiations lasting into the summer http://t.co/uj6IH04IsJ http://t.co/dQ10gU874i

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

10 months

Our nowcasting models show eurozone growth momentum is stalling as still-high inflation & tight monetary policy weigh on activity. We expect the lacklustre growth to persist for the rest of 2023 – we could see stagnation or even quarterly GDP contractions:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

1 year

We think China's post-reopening path will follow that seen in other Asian economies: an initial consumption rebound that fizzles out within a few quarters. We're sceptical about the consensus view that excess household savings will fuel a strong recovery:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

3 years

We've cut our China growth forecast for Q4 to 3.6% y/y from 5%, and for 2022 to 5.4% from 5.8%.

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

1 year

In our latest #downside #scenario for Europe’s major #cities , all but four― #Oslo , #Amsterdam , #Warsaw & #Bucharest ―suffer annual #GDP declines, with #London & #Helsinki among the weakest performers. Learn more about our city scenarios:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

1 year

The semiconductor cycle has turned and is likely to continue softening into next year. As the world's largest producer of chips, Asia is set to bear the brunt of the hit to growth. We are more pessimistic about South Korea and less so in Taiwan:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

6 years

Ahead of US #mid -terms, and with the president threatening new $200bn #tariffs a US-China #tradewar will cause significant economic damage in US states that supported President Trump in 2016. We find 8 out of 10 hardest-hit states were pro-Trump:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

6 years

We find winners and losers - but mainly losers - if #oil goes to $100 a barrel. Our simulations show peak impact in 2020 with 0.7% knocked off the level of global GDP. Inflation rises 1.2pp above our May baseline by 2019, threatening the global ‘Goldilocks’ environment. 

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

6 years

Rising #UScompetitiveness gives American #manufacturing chances to be great again. We find US ~15% more competitive on unit labor costs than Canada, 30% more than Germany. Since 2000, labour costs in China have more than tripled, closing the gap with US:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

3 years

“We share the Fed’s view that this isn’t the start of an upward inflationary spiral. We look for supply & demand imbalances to gradually be resolved heading into 2022” via @GregDaco @BostjancicKathy via @FT @JamesPoliti @Edgecliffe

US consumer prices rise at fastest pace since 2008

S&P 500 in biggest one-day drop since February after inflation measure hits 4.2% for April

www.ft.com

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

11 months

We find little evidence that strong demand is the main driver of eurozone inflation. Weak consumer spending and negative real wage growth aren't pointing to an overheated economy – wages are rising in response to inflation, not vice versa:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

3 years

The eurozone economy has been hit hard by the pandemic and, while we expect the 2021 rebound to be the strongest in its history, GDP will not return to pre-crisis levels until 2022. We have identified four key themes which will shape the recovery profile:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

8 years

#Yellen signals the Fed is in no hurry to raise rates, despite regional Fed President's hawkish talk. Fed will wait until Sept. to tighten.

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

3 years

It's evident that Asia Pacific is leading the global recovery from the pandemic, but the overall positive trend masks noticeable divergences within the region. Our recovery scorecard shows New Zealand and Northeast Asia continuing to lead:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

4 years

US Recovery Tracker slows to a crawl

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

6 years

$50bn new US #tariffs on imports from China come at a bad time. Direct impact will be small: with like-for-like retaliation we estimate 0.1-0.2 ppts off growth in both countries in 2018-19. But this matters and confidence and investment will be hit, too:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

3 years

Our estimates suggest that house prices in advanced economies may be 10% overvalued versus long-term trends. This boom, while not as pronounced as the one that preceded the global financial crisis, is still one of the biggest since 1900:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

3 years

Our Global Economic Model was used in @ecb 's latest #economic bulletin "The implications of savings accumulated during the #pandemic for the global economic outlook"

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

6 years

Global #recession is not our forecast and we've probably seen riskier times since 2008's crisis. But current mix of cyclical risks has few close precedents so markets right to be edgy. Key risks are wage/price inflation, policy errors, tighter liquidity:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

6 years

#EM sell-off driven by #Turkey troubles stoking fears of contagion. But most EMs are more resilient than in 2008 or 2013, due to major corrections in external imbalances and banking sector deleveraging. EMs that are exposed hv mainly already seen crises:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

2 years

We now expect UK CPI inflation to peak at nearly 12% in October. We estimate the energy price cap will rise by nearly 60% to £3,135 that month, with a further £340 increase in January. So more fiscal support for households looks likely in the Budget:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

2 years

Due to events of the past 24 hours, we're moving our global baseline in line with our full-scale invasion scenario. This means higher European gas, oil and food prices, and more financial mkt disruption. This should cut 0.2ppts from global growth in 2022:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

9 years

We challenge the doomsayers: Greece has less to fear from exit than most think http://t.co/yqtj4myCyZ #grexit http://t.co/1GlCtuId0t

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

2 years

Our latest note identifies the 20 commodities that have the greatest potential to disrupt global supply and demand following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Venezuela, Mozambique, Pakistan, Malta, and India look most vulnerable through the import channel:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

3 years

Talk of US labor shortages is everywhere. But rather than a shortage, we see a transitory mismatch between the supply and demand of workers in sectors most affected by the pandemic. This will temporarily lift average hourly wage growth in the summer:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

3 years

Our Housing Affordability Indices show affordability deteriorated in nearly all US and Canadian metros in Q2 2021. Potential buyers will find homes most out of reach in Vancouver, Boise, Toronto, Portland, Hamilton, Las Vegas, San Jose, and LA:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

6 years

Our new research for the American Alliance of Museums @AAMers shows that, in addition to cultural and educational contributions, #USmuseums contribute $50bn pa to the #USeconomy , support 726k jobs and generate $12B in tax revenue. Report is free here: …

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

2 years

Now the big concern about inflation is where it will settle in 2023 & after. We think concerns about a prolonged period of high inflation are overblown. Prices of food & energy prices may remain high but annual inflation rates should fall sharply:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

6 years

We rank the #EmergingMarket winners and losers from rising #oil , slowing #trade , and #liquidity pressures #emergingmarkets . #EMs most at risk include #Turkey , #Argentina , #Ukraine and some in Asia:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

2 years

#Manufacturing conditions worsened in July, with the eurozone, South Korea & Taiwan being pulled into the red, according to the latest #PMI data. #Supplychain bottlenecks are showing tentative signs of easing, but as demand conditions begin to soften:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

6 years

We rank the #EmergingMarket winners and losers from rising #oil , slowing #trade , and #liquidity pressures #emergingmarkets . #EMs most at risk include #Turkey , #Argentina , #Ukraine and some in Asia:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

4 years

The #coronavirus is leading to unprecedented US layoffs. We estimate the US will see the sharpest job losses and highest #unemployment rise since WWII, with 20m jobs lost by April's #payrolls report tho' Friday's March data will show much smaller no.s:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

3 years

Our analysis suggests eurozone consumers are raring to get spending as soon as restrictions are eased. Most of the current restraint on spending is being forced by the closure of spending outlets rather than being a voluntary response to uncertainty:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

3 years

Our latest #research for @LBGplc assesses which parts of the #UK could be best placed to capitalise on the #opportunities of the #green #economy . Download the full report here:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

4 years

Our fiscal response scorecard finds uneven results across Eurozone countries. While Germany has provided the most support so far, the weakest responses have been from countries most vulnerable to the pandemic: Greece, Spain and Italy:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

4 years

Our US Recovery Tracker has fallen for the second time in three weeks. While five of the six dimensions increased, those gains were smaller than in the previous week, and they were offset by the sharpest plunge in the health index since April. More here:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

6 years

The @guardian highlights our new analysis concluding that a no-deal hard #Brexit would cost the remaining 27 EU nations €112bn (£99.5bn) in lost economic output via both the direct trade hit and indirect supply chain impacts:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

1 year

Official data for China showed its population declined in 2022 for the first time in 60 years. We expect the decline in labour supply growth will deepen in the coming decades, dragging on growth & leaving the economy reliant on investment and productivity:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

3 years

Bidenomics’ positive impacts for US industries and regions

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

3 years

Labour shortages have emerged as another key supply-side risk for the eurozone's recovery, joining a strain caused by shortages of inputs. They are most acute in the north, particularly the industrial and construction sectors in Germany and the Benelux:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

3 years

At 6.3% of GDP, we estimate France's fiscal deficit in 2022 will be €40bn wider than projected by the government in its draft budget. With limited efforts to reduce the structural deficit, the deficit should remain above 3% of GDP until at least 2025:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

3 years

After a lacklustre start, the EU vaccine rollout is currently following our "boosted supply upside" scenario, which sees the EU meeting its target of vaccinating 70% of adults by end-June, three weeks earlier than in our baseline:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

11 months

Though some evidence suggests the US banking sector has stabilised after the turmoil in March, it's only partial and the stresses we have already seen will have consequences. Deposit losses have been large, and tighter credit conditions will hurt growth:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

3 years

We expect the second UK lockdown to cause a 10% drop in GDP in November and a 3% fall in Q4. The decline in output should be much smaller than in the first wave because the lockdown is due to be shorter and less stringent. We explain more here:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

3 years

Our latest #research for @LBGplc assesses which parts of the #UK could be best placed to capitalise on the #opportunities of the #green #economy . Download the full report here:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

7 years

Future global #economic landscape depends largely on who wins #Election2016 #Clinton #Trump via @GregDaco

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

8 years

Rising systemic risk in the Eurozone amid concerns about banks' underlying profitability:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

4 years

The historic rise in precautionary savings will act as a restraint on US consumer spending. The personal saving rate will decline in 2 phases over the coming months with income cliffs from expiring fiscal aid representing downside risks to consumer outlays

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

4 years

Trump's decision to call off stimulus talks until after the elections could represent a watershed moment. Our baseline assumes the extension of a $1.2tn fiscal package, but the absence of additional aid could knock 1.5ppt off US GDP over the next year:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

4 years

As #coronavirus esalates, our new #eurozone forecasts show its economy will shrink 4% in Q2 and 2.2% over 2020 as a whole. We evaluate structural vulnerability and find #EZ periphery economics most vulnerable, while #France and #Germany look less exposed:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

4 years

The #coronavirus will inflict a short, sharp #recession on the world. We now forecast 2020 global growth to drop to zero. In Q1, we expect the global economy to shrink faster than during the worst of the financial crisis, with a fall of 2% in world GDP:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

1 year

Our indicator of global bank credit standards shows a further tightening, led by the G7 economies. The current reading is the tightest since 2009 and the results are broadly in line with our baseline forecast for a mild world recession:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

1 year

According to our modelling, eurozone monetary policy has lost only a little of its ability to tame inflation and affect economic activity. The lag in the timing of rate hike pass-through hasn't changed substantially, but the transmission channels have:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

3 years

Starting today, we are publishing a series of notes analysing the outlook for the next couple of years. We begin with the global picture where, in stark contrast to 2020-2021, 2022 will see demand-side developments dominate:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

4 years

Q1 GDP releases paint a uniformly bleak picture of the global economy's performance. Household spending fell particularly sharply, suggesting the domestic impact of lockdowns has been far more important than spillovers from the shutdown in China:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

3 years

Economic activity looks increasingly inelastic to lockdown measures. In the eurozone, industry and construction are functioning at close-to-normal levels, while services have also been more resilient. Our latest note analyses why:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

6 years

The world trade boom is over. Our two new synthetic indicators suggest that world trade growth is currently running below 3% y/y and could slow to just 1% y/y by year-end:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

3 years

We expect the EU to hit its target of vaccinating 70% of the adult population in early-August. But this relatively unambitious target would leave the EU lagging UK and US, meaning a slower relaxation of restrictions with q/q growth not peaking until Q3:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

3 years

The surge in European gas & electricity prices is amplifying a pickup in inflation and pointing the Q4 2021 headline rate towards 4%. This will squeeze household finances, push up industry's cost base & possibly accelerate the ECB's withdrawal of stimulus:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

4 years

With the rise in #Wuhan #coronavirus cases it’s clear the disease is now economic threat. Near-term impact on growth in #China is likely to be large – we have cut our 2020 forecast by 0.4ppts to 5.6%. Worldwide global growth could take a 0.2ppts hit:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

4 years

Lockdown has caused UK savings levels to surge. Evidence suggests economic shocks tend to increase the desire to save, but the uniqueness of the Covid crisis and its after-effects could limit the extent of the private sector's increased prudence:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

7 years

Why have the fortunes of Spain & Portugal diverged? Because Portugal did not reform its banking system. More here:

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Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

1 year

The squeeze on #incomes will continue to restrict #ConsumerSpending , in real terms, over the coming months. We #forecast spending will fall in more than a quarter of major #cities in 2023, mainly those in advanced economy countries. Read more:

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