Gregory Daco @GregDaco Twitter profile

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

3 months

🇺🇸 "Productivity isn’t everything, but in the long run, it’s almost everything," right @paulkrugman ?

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

3 months

The US #economic outperformance is truly impressive

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

3 years

On the importance of #vaccines , especially given #Delta variant prevalence! Top 6 #vaccinated states versus least vaccinated: #hospitalizations surging in least vaccinated while barely changing in most vaccinated Via @fundstrat @carlquintanilla @SoberLook

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

5 years

Some of these #unwantedivanka memes are really impressive

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

4 years

It took 3 months to reach 100,000 #coronavirus cases globally. It took 10 days to reach 200,000 cases. It took 4 days to reach 300,000 cases

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

3 years

More masks & more social distancing has meant the seasonal flu nearly vanished in 2020-21 via @chartrdaily @WHO @SoberLook

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

4 years

Not paying rent... via @TheEconomist @SoberLook

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

3 years

About 87% of Americans are concerned about rising costs of household expenses. Endogenous response: About 20-30% buying less as a result of higher prices , mostly amongst lower income families. Via @CivicScience @axios @SoberLook

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

3 months

🇺🇸The US #economy is in a league of its own

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

3 years

Greatest 2020 achievement😉! Thanks @ratemyskyperoom !

Room Rater

@ratemyskyperoom

3 years

Love the brick. Art. Basket is tops. Shapes. Depth. 9/10 @GregDaco

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

4 years

US #farm bankruptcies reach 8-yr high > Looks like #tariffs & subsidies approach wasn't a great idea after all via @StatistaCharts @SoberLook

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

4 years

The most traumatic #jobsreport ever: - Payrolls fell 20.5 million in Apr > largest decline ever > more than 2* worst than during GFC - #unemployment rate +10.3pt to 14.7% - underemployment 22.8% - participation rate -2.5pt to 60.2% - wages +4.7% distorted by composition effect

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

3 years

Dry bulk shipping costs continue to tumble Via @SoberLook

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

4 years

Surging downgrades of companies listed in collateralized loan obligations (CLO) via @SoberLook

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

4 years

Worst returns to value stocks ever via @ISABELNET_SA @BofAML @SoberLook

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

1 year

🇺🇸Make no mistake #inflation is cooling & if anything the April CPI report indicates a broad disinflationary process as the main culprit for some of the apparent stickiness was a 4.4% m/m surge in used car prices.

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

3 years

Retail investors are taking out personal loans & borrowing from friends and family to invest in stocks… Via @SoberLook @magnify_money @LendingTree

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

2 years

Bank of England launches £65bn move to calm markets Not sure many realize how close we got to a financial crisis in UK: “At some point this morning I was worried this was the beginning of the end…not quite a Lehman moment. But it got close.”

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

3 years

Still only 30% @MTA riders transit in NYC. Very curious to see what the numbers will show in September. Via Todd Schneider @SoberLook

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

4 years

Global crude oil demand has plunged 20% via @WSJ @SoberLook

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

2 years

Gasoline demand has cooled significantly in last couple of weeks Via @SoberLook

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

3 years

About those #vaccines 😉 Via @CDCgov @fundstrat @carlquintanilla @SoberLook

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

3 years

🇺🇸 US households saved a greater portion of their latest stimulus checks Via ⁦ @NewYorkFed ⁩ ⁦ @SoberLook ⁩

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

2 years

🇪🇺Natural gas prices are down nearly 70% since late August with mild weather, reduced consumption and inventories near full capacity combining for a rapid correction Chart via @SoberLook

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

5 years

Prelim Current Employment Statistics revisions shows massive 501k downward revisions to nonfarm payrolls! > largest since 2009 > largest revisions: - retail (-146k) - professional & business services (-163k) - leisure and hospitality (-175k)

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

1 year

Japan scraps pacifist post-war defence strategy to counter China threat via @FT « Over next 5 years, Tokyo plans to spend ¥43tn ($313bn) to strengthen its defence capabilities, bringing military expenditure to roughly 2% of GDP matching Nato’s target »

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

4 years

US corporate #profits fell $4.7bn in Q3, following +$75.8bn in Q2, driven by domestic nonfinancial corporate profits & profits from abroad: 3rd contraction in last 4 Qs. Profits -1.2% y/y w/ margins still compressed at 9.6% of GDP – having declined nearly continuously for 5 yrs

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

4 years

Rising wave of corporate bankruptcies via @FT @SoberLook

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

2 years

The November CPI print will likely show an #inflation acceleration toward 7% y/y with core CPI inflation moving toward 5% y/y. Our 'MESSI' inflation outlook sees core inflation continuing to rise in the coming months & peaking in February 2022 around 5.3% y/y.

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

2 years

🚨 Professional news: Thrilled to announce that I'll soon be joining @EY_Parthenon as Chief Economist! I look forward to an exciting new journey focused on driving @EYnews ' global market agenda & addressing the real-world issues, opportunities & challenges CEOs now face!

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

3 years

US Recovery going into reverse via @OxfordEconomics @SoberLook

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

3 years

From Russia with Love… ▶️ EU dependence on natural gas from Russia Via ⁦ @TheEconomist ⁩ ⁦ @SoberLook ⁩

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

4 years

Stock market is increasingly driven by a handful of companies. The weight of the top five stocks in the #SP500 has nearly doubled since 2013 via @WSJ @SoberLook

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

4 years

#Coronavirus #markets crash in perspective Via ⁦ @FT ⁩

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

4 years

Widening divergence between profits and stock prices via @ISABELNET_SA @SoberLook

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

4 years

Concentration in SP500 reaching new record via @BankofAmerica @SoberLook

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

1 month

🇺🇸March #jobsreport : Non-inflationary growth👏 ✅Payrolls +303k 🟢Private +232k 🟢Goods +42k 🟢Svc +190k 🟢Gov +71k ⚠️Diffusion 59% ✅Revision +22k ✅Hours +0.3% ✅ #Unemployment 3.8% (-0.1pt) ✅Part rate 62.7% (+0.2pt) 💵Wages +0.3% m/m ⤵️Growth 4.1% y/y (-0.2pt)

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

4 years

A disaster waiting to happen at the state and local level... Via @wsj ⁦ @SoberLook ⁩

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

2 years

US mortgage applications are plunging -- down to 2014 levels via @SoberLook

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

3 years

What a picture - #PolarVortex via @NASA @SoberLook

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

2 years

A boom and bust in New York #taxi medallion prices via @SoberLook @FT @sindap

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

3 years

🇺🇸Don't forget that HALF of the May CPI #inflation number will be due to base effects ⤵️

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

1 year

🇺🇸Accelerating dis- #inflation #CPI +0.1% in March 🟡Core CPI +0.4% 🍲Food +0% (28-mo low) ⛽️Energy -3.5% ✅Core goods 0.2% 🚗New +0.4% 🚘Used -0.9% 👕Apparel +0.3% 🟡Services ex energy +0.4% 🏠Shelter +0.6% ⚠️Rent +0.5% ⚠️ OER +0.5% 🏨Hotel +2.6% 🏥Med -0.5% 🛫Air +4.0%

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

3 years

A stark reminder of the long road ahead for US #employment ... via @OxfordEconomics @SoberLook

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

2 years

Expected change in US home values over next 5 years via U. Michigan @SoberLook

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

3 years

Why tighten monetary policy when the markets are doing it for you? chart via @SoberLook

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

4 years

EM outflows are already more severe than the 2008 crisis via @IIF @SoberLook

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

3 months

🇺🇸January #jobsreport : BOOM but handle with care! ✅Payrolls +353k 🟢Private +317k 🟢Goods +28k 🟢Svc +289k 🟢Gov +36k ✅Diffusion 66% ✅Revision +126k 🔻Hours -0.6% ✅ #Unemployment 3.7% (flat) ✅Part rate 62.5% (flat) 💵Wages +0.6% m/m 🔥Growth 4.5% y/y (+0.2pt)

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

4 years

Over 40% of renters now at risk of eviction via @StatistaCharts @SoberLook

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

29 days

🇺🇸 Hotter CPI print but dis- #inflation still #CPI +0.4% 🟡Core +0.4% 🍲Food +0.1% ⛽️Energy +1.1% ✅Core gds -0.2% 🚘Used -1.1% 🚗New -0.2% 👕Apparel +0.7% ✅Core svc +0.5% 🏘️Shelter +0.4% 🏡Rent +0.4% 🏠OER +0.4% 🏨Hotel +0% 🏥Med +0.6% 🛫Air -0.4% 📜Car insur +2.6%

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

3 years

Ok, boomer... Which generation controls the Senate? via @SoberLook @propublica

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

1 year

🇺🇸January #Jobsreport : "Wow" 🟢Payrolls +517k 🟢Private +443k ▶️Goods +46k ▶️Services +397k 🟢Gov +74k ⬆️Revisions: +71 k 👀 #Unemployment 3.4% (-0.1pt):🆕50-yr low⚠️ ✅Participation rate 62.4% (+0.1pt) 📊Wages +0.3% m/m (& Dec +0.4%) ⤵️Wage growth 4.4% (-0.4pt)

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

1 year

🇺🇸ISM Manufacturing -1.4pt to 46.3 in March -- lowest since May 2020 🚨 Broad-based softening... ❌New Orders 46.3 (-2.7pt) ❌Production 47.8 (+0.5pt) ❌Employment 46.9 (-2.2pt) ❌Supplier Deliveries 44.8 (-0.4pt) ❌Backlogs 43.9 (-1.2pt) ⬇️Inflation 49.2 (-2.1pt)

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

4 years

Mortgage delinquencies on the rise (and could still rise further given the lapse in policy support) via @SoberLook

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

4 years

Nearly 30 million Americans say they "often" or "sometimes" don't have enough to eat -- a 5 million increase in late July alone! via @uscensusbureau @adam_tooze @SoberLook

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

4 months

🇺🇸 #JOLTS : Job openings fell to lowest since Mar 2021 & hirings to low since Covid in November: point to weaker labor demand ⬇️Job openings: 8.79mn (-62k); low since 03/21 ⬇️Hiring: 5.47mn (-363k); low since 04/20 ⬇️Quits: 3.28mn (-167k); low since 02/21 ⬇️Layoff: 1.45mn (-115k)

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

4 years

The #Fed 's emergency lending/credit facilities are worth over $4tn, but take up so far is less than $100bn via @bpolitics @SoberLook

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

7 months

Thanks, @roomrater ! 💯 📈Turns out my economist setup is not just great for numbers, but also for aesthetics! To be honest, my secret weapon is my wife, the real decoration pro!👩‍🎨 #EconomistChic #Perfect10

Room Rater

@ratemyskyperoom

7 months

Top economist setup. Love the art. Vases. Lighting. Great design. 10/10 @GregDaco

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

2 years

How safe is your password? via @StatistaCharts

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

3 years

🇺🇸 #Jobsreport : It may look good, but it ain’t! Total +49k in Jan - Private +6k - Goods -4k - Services +10k - Gov +43k 🛑Revisions -159k 🛑Job loss relative to Feb: 9.9mn 🛑Share of #COVID19 loss regained: only 56% #Unemployment rate: 6.3% (-0.4pt) LFP 61.4% (-0.1ppt)

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

3 years

No significant jobs boost from expiring emergency #unemployment benefits Via @colbyLsmith @christinezhang @OxfordEconomics @SoberLook

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

4 years

Skipping rent: 3/4 of store owners in malls skipped their rent payments in April via @SoberLook @TheCoStarGroup

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

4 years

The BEST quarterly advance in US GDP only got us back to the WORST point of the 2008-09 financial crisis... Via ⁦ @MizuhoAmericas ⁩ ⁦ @SoberLook ⁩

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

4 years

There are many different illustrations of this. But, comparing the US and Canada experiences reflects how poorly the US managed the #COVID19 crisis via @SoberLook @MaxCRoser

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

5 years

US economic expansions have been getting slower over past 70 years via @OxfordEconomics @SoberLook

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

4 years

🏆Extremely pleased to have won the Consensus Economics Forecast Accuracy Award for the US 🏆 A great US Macro team effort via @OxfordEconomics . Link to @ConsensusEcon awards:

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

6 years

My latest Oped in @cgtnamerica on the risks from a US-China #trade war via @OxfordEconomics

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

1 year

🇺🇸This #CPI report leaves little doubt that the disinflationary process is well underway. Slower growth in final demand for goods and services, easing housing price inflation and moderate wage growth should combine in the coming month and lead to faster disinflation than expected

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

2 years

Where it's hot, and where it's hot... Prices have risen the most in Midwest and South as inflation hits 30-year high via @WSJ @sinoceros @DannyDougherty

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

1 month

🇺🇸 @ISM #Manufacturing sentiment back in expansion territory for 1st time since Sep 22 ✅ISM Manufacturing +2.5pt to 50.3 in March✅ ✅New Orders 51.4 (+2.2pt) ✅Production 54.6 (+6.2pt) ⚠️Employment 47.4 (+1.5pt) 🟡Backlogs 46.3 (flat) 🟡Inflation 55.8 (+3.3pt)

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

11 months

🇺🇸It's coming: Dis- #inflation in May 📉Headline #PPI : -0.3% m/m 📉Core: 0% m/m ✅Goods -1.6% ▶️Food -1.3% ▶️ Energy -6.8% (⛽️) ▶️Core +0.1% ✅Services +0.2% 💥Transportation -1.4% ⚠️Trade (margins incl🚗) +1.0% 🚨Disinflation: ⤵️PPI 1.1% y/y (-1.2pt) ⤵️Core 2.8% y/y (-0.5pt)

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

4 years

States are not prepared for the incoming #unemployment claims tsunami via @SoberLook @WSJ

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

2 months

👀Fun fact: US consumer debt at its lowest since 2013... as a share of spending

Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

3 months

🇺🇸Worry not about credit, worry about how much it costs...

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

3 years

Record equity inflows Via @BofAML @ISABELNET_SA @SoberLook

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

5 months

🇺🇸 Winding dis- #inflation road #CPI +0.1% in Nov ✅Core +0.3% 🍲Food +0.2% ⛽️Energy -2.3% ✅Core goods -0.3% 🚘Used +1.6% 🚗New -0.1% 👕Apparel -1.3% 🟡Core services +0.5% 🏘️Shelter +0.4% 🏡Rent +0.5% 🏠OER +0.5% 🏨Hotel -1.1% 🏥Med +0.6% 🛫Air -0.4% 📜Car Insur +1.0%

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

4 years

Headed in the wrong direction with #COVID via @OxfordEconomics @SoberLook

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

1 year

🇺🇸The US economy is unwell & it’s starting to show 📉Real #GDP Q1 '23 🟡+1.1% q/q 🟡+1.6% y/y 💥Massive inventory drag -2.3pt 📈Consumer spend +3.7% but weak momentum ⚠️Real GDP🆚pre- #COVID19 trend: -1.9% 📊PCE Inflation 🔥Headline 4.9% (⤵️0.8pt) 🔥Core 4.7% (⤵️0.1pt)

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

2 years

🇺🇸Surging mortgage rates have pushed the payment-to-income ratio (on a median priced home) to its highest level since the early 1980s via Black Night @SoberLook

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

4 years

US crude #oil production down 20% Via ⁦ @SoberLook ⁩

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

3 years

More than 2/3 of Americans support a simpler pathway to US citizenship for high-skilled foreign workers Via ⁦ @DataProgress ⁩ ⁦ @SoberLook ⁩

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

1 year

🇺🇸 Auto sales fell to 13.3million units in December Sales in 2022 were the weakest since 2011, and down 8% from 2021. While supply constraints were a key factor holding back sales in early 2022, demand softness is the key restraint today. Chart via @SoberLook

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

2 years

The @zillow Home value index recorded its second consecutive monthly drop — the first monthly declines in a decade ! Via @SoberLook

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

2 years

March #FOMC statement: 1⃣Rate liftoff by 25bp 2⃣QE finished 3⃣Inflation "broad-based" weighing on activity 4⃣With appropriate tightening labor market to remain strong 5⃣Ukraine shock inflationary 6⃣Balance sheet runoff at "a coming meeting" 7⃣Bullard dissent in favor 50bp hike

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

10 months

BOJ to Tweak Yield Control This Month, Ex-Official Hayakawa Says

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

4 years

Nearly one in three Americans worried about losing their job via @GallupNews @SoberLook

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

2 months

📊 Nonfarm business sector labor #productivity posted another solid advance in Q4 2023, +3.2%, as economic output +3.5% and hours worked increased a more modest +0.3%. 👏3rd consecutive quarterly gain of more than 3% – a feat that occurred once in the pre-Covid decade (in 2019)

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

3 years

It ain’t #stagflation , but it sure is M.E.S.S.I. (Moderating Expansion with Sticky Supply-driven Inflation) Via @OxfordEconomics @SoberLook

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

2 years

Quite the chart! The @BankofAmerica survey of fund managers shows risk aversion is on par with October 2008 via @SoberLook

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

5 years

The yield curve has fully reverted Via ⁦ @SoberLook ⁩

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

4 years

Bifurcated rebound in credit card spending via @jpmorgan @SoberLook

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

3 years

🇺🇸 Strongest recovery amongst G7 via @OECD @SoberLook

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

7 months

« Inflation-adjusted median net worth jumped 37% to $192,900 from 2019 to 2022, according to @federalreserve Survey of Consumer Finances. That marked the largest 3-year increase back to 1989, and it was more than double the next-largest one on record »

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

3 years

🇺🇸"Sticky but cooling #inflation " #CPI moderate +0.4% in Sep 🟢Core CPI +0.2% (less than expect) ⛽️Energy +1.3% 🍲Food +0.9% ⬆️Goods +0.6% 🚗New cars +1.3% ⤵️Used cars -0.7% 👕Apparel -1.1% ⬆️Services +0.3% 🏠Shelter +0.4%: 50% of CPI⬆️ ⤵️Airfare -6.4% ⤵️Car rental -2.9%

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

5 years

Longest US economic expansion also means many adults have experienced one or no #recession via @SoberLook @washingtonpost @jkempenerg

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

4 years

June #Jobsreport : - Payrolls +4.8mn - May payroll revised +190k to 2.7mn - Job shortfall since Feb: 14.7mn - Share of #Covid job loss regained: 34% - #Unemployment rate -2.2pt to 11.1% - Participation rate +0.7pt to 61.5% - Wages -1.1% w/ wage growth +5% distorted by composition

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

2 years

⚠️It's not a savings dip, it's a plunge, and it's not sustainable. ▶️Points to a significant slowdown of consumer spending as the personal savings rate levels out at this historically low level around 3%

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

3 years

A "Thriller"... Zombie companies are outperforming the S&P500 via Arbor Research and Trading @SoberLook

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

2 months

🇺🇸 #Productivity strength💥 means non-inflationary growth! 👏Productivity unrevised at +3.2% q/q in Q4 '23 ✅Output +3.5% q/q ✅Hours +0.3% q/q 💲Unit labor costs +0.4% q/q 💵Compensation +3.6% q/q 📈Trend: ✅Productivity +2.6% y/y ✅Unit labor costs +2.5% y/y

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

3 years

🇪🇺Europe: Inequality right down to its heart via @EU_Eurostat @SoberLook

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Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

3 months

🇺🇸 #Productivity strength💥 means non-inflationary growth! 👏Productivity +3.2% q/q in Q4 '23 ✅Output +3.7% q/q ✅Hours +0.4% q/q 💲Unit labor costs +0.5% q/q 💵Compensation +3.7% q/q 📈Trend: ✅Productivity +2.7% y/y ✅Unit labor costs +2.3% y/y

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