Thrilled to share* my 2-hour deep-dive with
@Lemonade_inc
Co-Founder & Co-CEO, Daniel Schreiber. 🍋
A must watch for those keen on understanding the Lemonade ( $LMND ) investment thesis, and why I believe it represents one of the best opportunities in the market right now.
We…
@stillgray
College definitely isn’t what it used to be. But this girl not wanting to take an entry level job for less than $150-200k is entitlement and/or laziness.
Wow. Elon fucks the $TSLA earnings call again. Another quarter, another massive failure in messaging. I swear at times he was even trying to talk over Vaibhav (their interim CFO). This call felt like yet another disaster.
My initial thoughts below were noted before the call and…
The Tesla / Elon Faithful Need to Wake Up.
A year has passed since Elon closed on his acquisition for Twitter/X. Who can forget his marching into their offices with a literal kitchen sink and going on an almost comical firing spree with the PayPal crew in tow?
I don’t think…
Just finished the Don Lemon interview.
The guy threw as many talking points and gotcha questions at
@elonmusk
as he could squeeze into an hour (even tried to go after his kid in a slimy underhanded way).
Truly shameful performance by Don. Had an amazing opportunity to build…
My (highly critical) take on the $TSLA earnings call...
Overall, earnings were fine. But they weren't amazing. And, unfortunately, what I heard on the call was a lot of walking things back and throwing cold water on expectations.
My key take-away: the company is doing just…
It's amazing to me how many $TSLA "investors" continue talking down those of us who are critical about what's happening with the business because of what they're seeing happening with the share price.
Guys...
(1) Elon's political crusades are unlikely to be a net positive for…
@WholeMarsBlog
I think you’re having difficulty separating yourself as a Tesla fan, a TSLA investor, and a fan of Elon.
You may or may not be aware of this, but all of the gaslighting you’ve been doing dismissing legitimate TSLA investor concerns has very likely contributed to billions of…
$TSLA Q4 earnings and call: Meh. It was good, but it wasn't great.
And it's not because the business isn't performing well, but because expectations have been sky-high for some time, and I'm just not getting the sense that they're firing on all cylinders.
Quarter after…
Laying off employees in a fast-growing company is a positive and, for Tesla, a regular measure that has nothing to do with market conditions, but with efficiency and productivity.
Tesla is the industry cost leader for a reason. $tsla
We clearly live in a bubble here on Twitter/X. Yet people still refuse to believe
@Tesla
needs to advertise, educate consumers, and raise awareness in order to move product.
After this whole compensation fiasco, I find myself asking whether Elon is genuinely oblivious to the…
$10 billion in FSD costs
$250 billion (so far) on the fleet
Not counted: years of training data collected from *paying* customers.
No other company has or can replicate this edge.
@Tesla
has one of the most massive proprietary training data sets in the world.
@sobieski902
Pretty much.
It has been staggeringly difficult to make generalized self-driving work, requiring all that you describe above and more.
The investment in training compute, gigantic data pipelines and vast video storage will be well over $10B cumulatively this year.
But that…
@WholeMarsBlog
The tragedy of your account (and the Twitter purchase in general) is that you and others through the monetization system have created an echo chamber where you all pander to Elon for engagement.
Instead of providing valuable feedback to the company we are all fans of, the fanboy…
Unpopular opinion:
Step 1:
@elonmusk
should redirect his focus back to
@Tesla
and ACTUALLY DELIVER on his promise of Full-Self Driving (FSD), thereby facilitating the largest ever value creation for $TSLA shareholders that he’s been talking up for over half a decade.
Step 2:…
“Tough quarter for everyone” is a cop out when
@Tesla
:
- has the best product on the market
- consumer awareness languishes
- misinformation flourishes
- the company CEO alienates some # of its core customer base
Guess it doesn’t really matter as long as the company has a fat…
@WholeMarsBlog
He’s such an idiot that he can’t even tell he’s an idiot.
BYD sales dropped by 42% from last quarter. This was a tough quarter for everyone.
The things we to for the
#FSDBeta
program so we all learn more together! Thanks for your help Charlie! The data: White lines are 10 feet, space between is 30 feet, three lines and two gaps is 90 feet. Now we can measure vehicle speed from overhead!
@elonmusk
@aelluswamy
I don’t buy it.
Drew and Rohan’s departures seem different in nature to previous exec. level departures. It feels different, and it doesn’t feel good.
@Tesla
may very well be on the cusp of solving autonomy, but the auto business — its core business — is suffering, and I…
It is a literal tragedy for
@Tesla
and $TSLA shareholders that this person* has Elon’s ear, and for over a year has been leading people astray into believing that Elon has done no brand damage and that advertising was done but it simply didn’t work.
He has made it unequivocally…
Received a few messages over the last couple of days from friends / former colleagues (those who know I've long been a
@Tesla
fan and $TSLA investor) who are also long-time $TSLA investors asking:
- what's going on with Elon
- why is he attacking democrats
- is he having his…
This post wasn’t meant to be directed at anyone. I’m simply expressing my frustration with how it can feel at times to voice any sort of critical / dissenting opinion.
Why $LMND is my top pick for 2024 & 2025
This thesis is predicated on a detailed examination of
@Lemonade_Inc
's business model, growth potential, and market dynamics.
I've noted below a high-level view of some of the key business drivers. And I've followed this up with my…
The best potential 50X return I'm aware of:
Lemonade Insurance ( $LMND )
I’m typically a holder of large-cap stocks. At the same time, I'm a strong advocate for most people having at least one high-risk/high-reward early-stage company in their portfolio.
I was introduced to…
@WholeMarsBlog
I didn't say he's doing it because of you or that you're giving him permission.
To be clear - I said you're contributing to an environment where he thinks there's absolutely no harm to Tesla because of what he's doing.
And you're further contributing to creating an…
Tesla is likely to remain flat (at best) or sell off in the coming days and weeks.
I hope to be wrong, but my impression after earnings and the conference call is that $TSLA is going to be a “boring” stock until ~2024, and it now has more near-term valuation risk.
- Cars will…
The auto business was perfectly healthy (simply needed greater consumer awareness). The energy business was/is ramping. The introduction of a lower cost model would have decimated competitors, and provided
@Tesla
with ample funding to pursue and perfect its many ambitions:
-…
This is another massive transition period for Tesla which increasingly appears to be another “bet the company” moment on FSD.
There’s no guarantee that robotaxi will work out the way we all expect, but it’s more likely than not. All of this hinges on a small team of AI engineers…
@jasondebolt
Sorry, Jason, but none of this will change the fact that they likely could have offset the margin compression with effective educational / awareness / marketing campaigns.
I hope all $TSLA investors are mentally prepared for a very volatile year. Elon is not going to let up on politics or his war on the mainstream media, and we are all along for the ride.
@TeslaBoomerMama
"Elon is how he is. Take it or walk, there is no in between."
Why is this more often than not the default response Alexandra? Shouldn't Twitter/X in fact be the town square and a place that is open for debate where we can maintain our holdings and still express our perspectives?…
A must read for $TSLA investors … the broken feedback loop is real.
It is very obvious and very noticeable for those of us that have been (1) following Elon as close as a person can for over a decade, and (2) are not already a part of the sycophantic group that are…
A defense of Elon Musk and the impact of social media addiction
I'm stuck in an airport in Athens this morning, so I decided to do what the Greeks have been doing so well for so long and put some of my thoughts together - specifically after chatting with a few people who could…
Lemonade ( $LMND ) has soared over 50% since marking a new all-time low just a week ago. What has driven its surge? And what do I think is likely to happen next?
As we approached last week’s earnings,
@Lemonade_inc
was facing a lot of skepticism from the investor community. That…
Hello fellow $LMND investors!
Finally connected with Shai yesterday and we managed to speak for nearly 2 hours.
Full debrief on our spaces tomorrow at noon!
Just wrapped on an in-depth 2-hour discussion with
@Lemonade_Inc
Co-founder & Co-CEO Daniel Schreiber.
@daschreiber
Have some post editing work to do, but this one (I hope!) is going to be worth the wait. $LMND
I’ve been raising concerns about the need for
@Tesla
to separate its brand from that of
@elonmusk
’s personal brand for some time.
This is another clear example of why Tesla needs its own consumer facing brand.
@WholeMarsBlog
Please stop pretending like you know what you’re talking about. You may have a lot of followers but you don’t seem to know a lot about business, and it’s likely your constant pandering to Elon with these dumb tweets in the hopes of maintaining your engagement has contributed to…
@WholeMarsBlog
You’re actually a newb who doesn’t know anything about business, but you get to pretend like you do because you’re good at social media, have hundreds of thousands of followers, and you have Elon’s ear.
But please for once do us all a favor and shut up, and instead try to…
Here are some very simple questions for $TSLA investors to ask themselves:
(1) Will the below tweet help or hurt Tesla’s sales?
(2) Will the below tweet help or hurt Tesla’s brand?
(3) Do you think more people will see Tesla ads over the next week than will see the below…
Congrats for again boosting stuff like this
@ElonMusk
! Horrible. And folks want to pay yet another $50 BILLION for this
#BrandDamage
sitting on X 24/7 which is clearly what he really cares about? Are there ANY rules? ANY CEO posting such things would be let go instantly. $TSLA
Ouch. $TSLA is down 13% since
@elonmusk
took the reigns of
@Tesla
's Q3 2023 conference call. Great for dip buyers and long-term investors who are still accumulating. Not so great for those who may already have established position sizes.
No one likes to see their asset values…
@elonmusk
So you’re ok with more voting control, without additional shares / money?
Also new comp. plan has to be tied to selling conditions. No open market transactions to intentionally nuke the share price.
Hate being that guy, but while everyone is very bullish on FSD I can’t help but call out that we’re now entering even higher risk territory with $TSLA.
The risk has always been a very public accident that sees significant blowback from lawmakers / regulators.
This has always…
@CollinRugg
Good. I hope they throw the book at him and have him serve his time under the max sentence. Let that be a lesson to anyone else who might try something similar in the future.
Nothing matters as long as you focus on the bigger picture, if even that means irreparable brand damage goes unmitigated for a year. 🤦🏻♂️
This is precisely the enablement that has gotten us to where we are today.
Way to handicap the rest of the management team and board Farzad.…
@VivekGRamaswamy
@elonmusk
This is not a well informed take. Shouldn’t you be taking the time to accurately understand context before making inflammatory statements?
The new factory is for Megapacks, which are stationary energy storage units, not electric vehicles.
What other topics might…
Or maybe we can spend some of that $27B in cash and use it to … I don’t know… actually lead the EV transition, raise awareness, and educate consumers? 🫠🤞🏼
@Tesla
owner Bill Eaton of Texas hydroplaned at 60mph, slammed into a guard rail, then flipped down an embankment. Bill got out pretty much without a scratch. Teslas are not only beautiful, but they safe.
@elonmusk
@rohanspatel
Rohan — I say this as a sincere and committed long term investor (here since 2013).
Please consider doubling down and going full scorched earth on advertising / consumer education / awareness across the entirety of the US and Europe. The focused marketing efforts are not…
@TSLAFanMtl
In my eyes, this whole game now makes complete sense. Elon knows full well how Wall Street works, and what would happen to the stock if margins were compressed and EPS went lower, and he is playing the public markets like a fiddle.
$LMND Q4 Earnings
@Lemonade_Inc
General high-level thoughts (bearing in mind this reflects only my personal opinions) -
The Letter
- This was one of their longest earnings letters I can recall reading. While it did not have the same 'swag' and confidence that I think many…
My suggestion to
@Tesla
and $TSLA “influencers” — you’re not going to sway people’s votes by attacking them, being patronizing, or threatening to sell if the vote doesn’t go the way you want.
I would love to hear from more people on which way they are voting and why.
So… Which…
@KrassenCast
@farzyness
I can’t ever recall seeing a candidate as polished. “If you can’t talk to your fellow Americans, you don’t deserve to sit across the table from the likes of Xi Jinping.” Love this.
Dave has always been another amazing rational $TSLA bull. His true long term perspective while being able to remain objective (and critical when needed) is rarer and rarer these days.
TSLA stock a mess today. Here’s how I look at it. Two main issues:
1. Long limbo
2. Margins
Long Limbo - With the next-gen low cost vehicle not starting production until 2nd half of 2025 we have a long period where Model Y has finished ramping and Tesla doesn’t have new products…
@elonmusk
It would be amazing if you could consider offsetting the potential damage you’re doing to
@Tesla
’s brand (by association with your own personal political views) with mass scale brand building, marketing, consumer awareness and educational efforts.
The targeted ads don’t seem…
$LMND Q4 Earnings Preview - Feb 27th
@Lemonade_Inc
@daschreiber
@shai_wininger
@tebixby
@yaelwiss
Lemonade is set to report earnings after market close on February 27th, with the conference call following on the morning of the 28th.
I've been keeping a close eye on the…
@garyblack00
Worth remembering Tesla’s solar/glass division (the entire premise of the SolarCity acquisition) has essentially gone nowhere, and I can’t even remember the last time we got an update on the Buffalo factory.
Not to mention a number of other products are still very late, and…
@WholeMarsBlog
You’ve indeed provided lots of constructive feedback.
But I’ve lost count of the number of times you’ve denigrated those who have spoken up about the lack of consumer awareness / advertising for almost a year now.
“Anyone who thinks it’s about lack of advertising is stupid”…
Tesla desperately needs a consumer brand presence that isn't just represented by Elon / a bunch of engineers. We are well past the early adopter phase and the ads we're seeing could be so much better.
My hope is proper marketing / advertising is not still treated as some taboo…
Tesla spending money on the media placement but not yet spending money on creative advertising, instead just using existing assets and editing them to fit whatever platform and format is required. Baby steps, still, but steps nonetheless!
@garyblack00
Thanks for the repost, Gary.
Indeed I have the best of intentions and genuinely want what’s best for
@Tesla
and (whether people want to believe it or not) the best for Elon as well.
An echo chamber serves no one, least of all Elon. And I was struck by a recent quote of his:…
@TeslaBoomerMama
@Sphere_Cubed
@elonmusk
@Tesla
I reject that assertion. And I don't know why you think I don't understand Elon. On the contrary, I understand him quite well and probably better than most folks realize.
You may have a different view, and that view may line up with a lot of the TSLA cheerleaders who parrot the…
Are the people that can make a difference paying attention? $TSLA investors are on the ground and know this to be a reality. It’s nice to see more data but we have been raising our voices about this because we can apparently see things management can’t.
Please break the cycle of…
80% of Americans surveyed admitted they did not know how affordable Teslas are today. EIGHTY. PERCENT.
Car buyers who think Teslas aren’t affordable will not buy one, whether they can actually afford a Tesla or not.
Source: Ipsos, DriveTeslaCanada
It has slowed the $TSLA mission down by at least a year. And for each day that passes without corrective action being taken, it slows it down for another 2-3 days.
Foregone profitability has a knock on effect for EVERYTHING in the Tesla mission.
At least you’re finally…
@elonmusk
@MatthewDR
@Tesla
Finally. A full year too late AFTER the damage has already been inflicted on the
@Tesla
brand.
Far too much time listening to the fanboy echo chamber on Twitter/X and not enough time listening to perfectly valid criticisms from real shareholders who have been pressing for this.
@freshjiva
Corporate mismanagement all while the owner is publicly demanding more control over the company because he dumped his holdings to buy Twitter. Should we reward this behavior? Almost like we have no choice.
Another interesting year for Tesla. It’s never boring, that’s for sure.
@WholeMarsBlog
He didn’t just sell.
He intentionally dumped them on the open market, allowing financial opportunists and short sellers to front run him and drive the stock down much, much further than it needed to go.
All $TSLA holders continue paying for the haphazard nature of these sales…
Note to the
@Lemonade_Inc
Team on 2024 Guidance
Dear Daniel, Shai, Tim, Yael, and the rest of the Lemonade team,
@daschreiber
@shai_wininger
@tebixby
@yaelwiss
As a long-term investor and a fervent believer in Lemonade's mission and potential, I write this note with a spirit…
@elonmusk
Please consider a “Tesla Ventures” arm. $20B+ in the bank, some of would be best put to use as investments in your many side ventures.
This is best way I can think of such that resources (including capital) are used for the benefit of all $TSLA investors in you.
We are…
@StevenZWang
Calling things out appropriately is being on the side of Elon and Tesla. He really needs to hear critical feedback, not positive reinforcement from sycophantic fanboys.
Look, I've been in the "controversial interview" seat. What
@DonLemon
came after
@ElonMusk
with felt like malice. Elon—in clear discomfort—opens up in good faith about intensely private struggles; Lemon picks precisely that moment to begin emptying an entire drawer of knives. 1/
@TeslaLisa
@elonmusk
That’s not the impression I got from what he said.
I don’t think he has “zero issues” but instead that he’s not going to take stuff down unless it’s illegal). That was pretty clear, and it was surprising (or maybe not) that 🍋 couldn’t even process his answer.
@TeslaBoomerMama
@WholeMarsBlog
Yes, I absolutely and unequivocally think that people post for engagement pandering to Elon.
And yes I do think that some of the pandering, specifically around brand damage, consumer education and awareness has created an environment where Elon’s own management team and board…
Pumps up investors, employees, customers (current and potential), and all stakeholders and partners involved.
Who ever tells you advertising isn’t necessary is lying to you.
@TeslaBoomerMama
I take all of your points on board, I genuinely do.
But the concerns I've been speaking up about aren't really short-term.
I haven't done a very good job of specifying the nature of my concerns -- that ultimately Elon is distracted with Twitter and much of Tesla's initiatives…
Seeing more and more clips of
@Tesla
FSD progress and it's looking very good. Pace of innovation really matters, but if v12.3 is as good as it appears, I wouldn't be surprised to see this get rapid uptake from Uber and other rideshare-type drivers.
Railroad day highlight number two. This one blew my mind.
@Tesla_AI
and the ADAS drivers are killing it if this is a product of training E2E neural nets.
@BillAckman
@POTUS
Perhaps this doesn’t sit well with me because I’m among those who diligently paid off his loans, but I don’t think it makes sense to give a massive handout to some portion of society at the expense of others this way. There aren’t enough good arguments to overcome this.
@heydave7
Dave do you ever get the impression they’re being as vague as possible because Elon wants to run Tesla as closely as possible in style to a private company?
Perfectly fine voting for this on the condition that the compensation package is tied to share sale conditions:
- No open market dumping of $TSLA shares from the toilet / his mobile phone -
Every predatory hedge fund in the world took advantage of this and front ran all of…
NEWS: Tesla has filed its annual proxy statement. The annual shareholder meeting will be on June 13, 2024.
Tesla is asking $TSLA shareholders to once again approve Elon Musk's $56 billion pay that was set in 2018, but was rejected by a Delaware judge in January.