I am the editor of HSJ, the No1 source of news on the NHS, and have reported on UK health policy for over 20 years. Subscribe for our unmatched coverage.
BREAKING: The number of Covid+ patients in England is now growing at 38% per week. That is the fastest rate of increase since last October! I think we're in real trouble
BREAKING: Number of covid positive patients in English hospitals falls below 5000 for 1st time since 25 July. Really looks as if the Summer Wave has peaked (and that people like me were too pessimistic when it came fearing how high peak might be). Never been happier to be wrong
The health secretary
@sajidjavid
repeats his description of nearly 1000 covid deaths a week as 'mercifuly low' - I expect that statement will haunt him
On the way to work in central London. Top deck of the bus, one small window half open, 30 people, three quarters unmasked. Demographics suggest around half unboosted. We’re getting this wrong.
Yesterday I was asked to prepare a brief about the situation in the NHS for a senior (non-Gov) political figure, who was about to do some media interviews. Now that's done - I thought you might like to see it (thread follows) 1/8
BREAKING: Hospital admissions of those with a positive covid diagnosis up by 16% in a week.
The expected autumn wave now appears to be washing ashore.
More analysis to come
BREAKING: The number of covid+ patients in English hospitals has risen 48% in the last week to 2798. This is a rate of increase not equalled for NINE months!
A senior NHS source messages me: "London Health workers are unable to book a PCR today. When they are tested, it seems that NO priority is being given to getting the test result back when they tick the “care worker box”. Up to 48 hours is the norm for getting the result back."
WARNING: In a few hours, stories about the NHS workforce plan will begin to drop (inc ours).
NONE of the writers will have seen the actual report - which won't be published until tomorrow morning.
This is now a well established tactic from this Gov 1/2
BREAKING: The Health Secretary is giving immediate financial backing for all NHS Trusts to provide free car parking to NHS staff for the duration of COVID-19. More to follow
BREAKING: Number of covid positive patients in English hospitals falls below 30,000 for first time since 9 Jan after 2nd biggest daily drop in total (first was on Wednesday). Covid inpatients have fallen 11% in just four days!
BREAKING: The former head of the covid vaccine programme, Emily Lawson, is returning from her new job at No10 to take charge again.
A sign of how serious things are getting
Astonishing that BBC (among others) are reporting the low number of daily coronavirus deaths without mentioning the NHS system used to record them was unavailable to many trusts for 18 of the 24 hour reporting period.
BREAKING: The number of covid positive patients in English hospitals has FALLEN for the first time in 30 days!
One swallow doesn't make a summer - but VERY good sign
Covid patients in English hospitals are doubling every two weeks (NOT three as Chris Whitty claimed). That puts us on over 6000 by end of July and (given that pace will probably slow a bit in August) 10,000 a month later. 2/8
Emergency care Is already through the roof – with A&Es beating record attendances almost every week. If it wasn’t for the pandemic this would be front page news. 5/8
The sheer scale of infections means many NHS staff are isolating – having been pinged. I spoke to one trust CEO this week who said 25% of their junior doctors were off. 6/8
NEW: Omicron hospitalisation wave really starting to accelerate now. 7 day hospital admissions total in England up 36% (to 24 Dec).
62% in London, 47% in NW, 39% in East, 36% in Midlands, 31% in North East & Yorks
Only SW still going down
The modelling suggests that rather declining as fast as it rose (as the spring 20 and winter 21 waves did), this wave will plateau for six weeks – so although it might not be as high at peak, it may actually involve as many people. 4/8
The available general and acute bed base after allowing for IPC in England is about 82k. This means the NHS starts the autumn/winter with over 10% of its bed base consumed by covid patients. In comparison, on 1 Sep 2020 there were 496 covid+ patients. 3/8
Let’s get one thing clear. Gov may not have known what exactly was driving rapid growth in covid cases, but they have known that SOMETHING was for AT LEAST a week. They were simply hoping they would get lucky and things would turn round before Xmas (sorry for caps, bit angry)
...which means its proposals do not get full scrutiny
HSJ will, of course, be diving deep into the report and bringing you all the messy detail the Gov would prefer you didn't know about 2/2
'The government must stop gaslighting the public and be honest about the threat the pandemic still poses to them'
A joint editoiral from
@KamranAbbasi
and myself
FREE to read
ANNOUNCEMENT: From now until the curve begins to flatten all of
@HSJnews
unmatched coronavirus coverage will be free to view - I hope our loyal subscribers will understand. Please R/T
More that at ANY time during the pandemic, I get the overwhelming sense that the UK is snatching defeat from the jaws of victory with the decision to move ahead with 19 July unlocking
NEW: Royal College of Physicians reporting: 'Across the UK, more than 1 in 10 doctors are off work and 1 in 24 due to COVID. In London these figures increase to 1 in 7 off work and 1 in 13 due to COVID.'
BREAKING: Another 711 people have died in English hospitals from Covid19. BUT Saturday is always a big figure and the running weekly average is still falling. It is now 22% down on the 13 April peak. More analysis in a few mins
.
@sajidjavid
tells
@MishalHusain
that he would not wear a mask in a thinly-occupied carriage on a mainline train late at night, even if there was a sign advising him to do so.
“Even if it said ‘we recommend wearing a mask’, I wouldn’t wear a mask”
BREAKING: North East and Yorkshire becomes the first of seven regions in the English NHS to record over 1000 covid+ hospital patients. [It had 80 on 5 June]
NEW: Latest covid hospitalisation figures out (they are now weekly, rather than daily)
Show a sharp rise in admissions in the South West (up 22% in the week).
Here comes the next wave people
When we published our joint editorial with
@bmj_latest
on Tuesday calling for an end to household mixing over Xmas,
@matthancock
dismissed it to colleagues as ‘mischief-making’ by ‘newspapers’ who knew it was too late for the Gov to change their plans…
NEW: Covid hospital deaths in the south west now running at (least) thirty perecent ABOVE lowest point (recorded on 20 May). All six other English regions continue to fall (tho there are worrying local hot spots like south essex and manchester)
There will be more data to crunch. But this is more evidence that the NHS is pretty much the worst healthcare system in the Western world. Once we look at all the info, there may be a good case for going for an EU-style more marketised system.
ANNOUNCEMENT: Due to the serious and sustained increase in covid pressure on the NHS
@HSJnews
is once again making ALL its covid coverage FREE to view. We believe our subscribers support this move and thank them for their continued support. Please R/T
NEW Today's covid hospital numbers: The number of covid patients in English hospitals as topped 10,000 for the first time since the beginning of March.
Up nearly 1,000 on yesterday, again.
No clear sign of a slowdown in London, unfortunately.
1/x
Astonishing - the NHS has just (effectively) nationalised commissioning Three decades of debate and controversy gone, if not quite in 60 seconds, then close
I'm usually relatively relaxed about such things, but I did a double take at this - 'Sir Patrick Vallance has £600,000 shareholding in firm [GSK] contracted to develop vaccines' Surely, this must contravene some kind of civil service or prof code
There has been much talk of covid 'overwhelming' the NHS. On a national and sustained level that has hadn't happened - EXCEPT in one, sadly neglected, area - ‘No capacity anywhere’ to deal with unprecedented surge in children’s mental health demand'
PM says: 'To those on the [NHS] frontline I must ask you to make another extraordinary effort' [on the vax booster push].
...and yet he won't even suggest that going to the pub might not be the wisest thing to do right now
NEW: Number of covid positive patients now falling faster than at any time since decline began on 19 Jan. Week on week decline now 25% (37% in SW and 33% in London).
BREAKING:
@NHSEngland
announce 'that everyone visiting healthcare settings must continue to wear a face covering and follow social distancing rules'. Been a lot of concern about this among NHS leaders, with trusts taking own action - as we reported
@maxwele2
Oh Elaine there’s was so much I could have added (long COVID, CAMHS crisis, cancer screening etc), but I was depressing myself and had to stop
'Most of the scenarios presented by SPI-M on 31 March showed hospitalisations rising as a result of step two in the roadmap. In the event, they didn’t, and neither did they rise significantly following step three of the roadmap on 17 May.'
✍️ Ross Clark
It's a bit of a disgrace that no journos have been invited to
@MattHancock
public health speech - he is not being pressed on ANY important point. Tone set when
@Policy_Exchange
host said 'no outrageous questions'
The refusal of government to fund the full pay award given to the NHS means the service now has to cut its spending by £1.8bn
Bound to affect already seriously over-stretched services
NEW: Some relatively good news for 'Freedom Day' - the seven day rate at which the number of covid+ hospital patients in England is growing has fallen to 36%. It was 49% a week ago. 1/2
NEW: Second covid wave still stubornly refusing to take off in London. Hospital deaths in capital still under 10% of spring peak. NW, by way of contrast, over 50%. Some chance that both may have peaked tho. NW admissions clearly heading down and Lonon plateauing
Health minister
@mariacaulfield
has just BLOCKED my colleague
@AliJaneMoore
- I assume becuse of this very worrying story ....so I've made it FREE to view. Please RT
BREAKING: BIG fall in Covid positive patients in English hospitals. Down 6% on a week ago (steepest decline for a month). Sharpest falls in NE & Yorks (14%) and SW (11%). Only SE still increasing. Overall numbers still at early March levels.
NEW: ALL seven English regions now showing an increase in covid positive hospital patients.
South East up 39% in a week, East and South West (+32%), North West and Midlands (+16%), North East & Yorks (+16%), London (+15%)
THIS is the best piece written by a NHS trust CEO I've read in the 19 years since I became
@HSJEditor
- please read it (it's free): 'Trust CEO: my cancer diagnosis has given me a new perspective on patient care'
NEW: Clear signs now that the rate of growth in covid hospitalisation in England is flattening (i.e. it's still increasing, but the rate at which that is happening is not climbing)
Right - that's official then. The chair of
@NHSImprovement
says any patient who asks for a 'white' doctor or nurse should be told 'sorry, no'.
...also any trust CEO looking to get on the right side of
@didoharding
might want to make sure their trust is doing that
I completely agree
@HSJEditor
on both counts. All NHS organisations, including my own, need to work harder to support our people when they face abuse, racism or prejudice
BREAKING: Trust chiefs lead NHS criticism of 'disgraceful' Cummings
Seasoned NHS observers will know how rare it is for NHS chiefs to openly criticise senior government figures.
My heart snaps in two watching this. Specialist surgeon whose whole life has been dedicated to the
#NHS
close to tears over being asked ‘Can I have a white doctor?’ And his response, my God. Hard to believe it’s 2019.
#racism
#nationalism
#brexitbritain
John Newton from
@PHE_uk
said that how they couunted tests never changed. This is NOT true. It changed about seven days ago and the gov webiste was updated yesterday. Here's the April 29 version WHICH DOES NOT INLCUDE MENTION OF HOME TESTS