Long awaited StatsCan survey-based data on Long COVID
• 1.4 million Canadians with symptoms extending 3 months
• Most common symptom fatigue, breathlessness and ‘brian fog’ among ~1/3 of all people with long COVID
1/2
Proud of
@UnityHealthTO
for keeping our patients and staff safe by mandating vaccines. ~2% of our staff and < 5 of our 850 doctors are now on leave. I am sad to see anyone go but this is a science-based and just policy.
@OntHospitalAssn
@COVIDSciOntario
Outstanding oped from
@mustafahirji
Any attempt to “live with COVID” requires the structural (enhanced ventilation, air sterilization, etc) and cultural adaptations (staying home when sick, mask usage, etc) required to combat an airborne illness
Honoured to be the new Scientific Director of
@COVIDSciOntario
. Harnessing science to inform our response to the pandemic has been a great privilege. Thank you to all the scientists on the Table who I have learned so much from, and the hundreds of hours they have volunteered. 1/2
I’m on one of St Michael’s NON COVID medical teams and 2/2 of our admissions yesterday are COVID POSITIVE! Even knowing the high case numbers this was a wake up call. It’s everywhere. To my fellow healthcare staff - assume every patient we see may have it and be careful!
COVID wastewater signal now rising overall in Ontario and in all sub-regions - This is the first time this has occurred since late December.
This is consistent with the XBB.1.5 surge we are experiencing (44% of all cases).
1/2
XBB.1.5 now 44% of all new infections - we continue to follow US course. Standard PHM apply: keep vaccines up to date, high quality masks in indoor crowded settings, focus on air quality, etc.
1/3
4th dose protection against symptomatic infection wanes within 6-8 weeks (remains strong against serious infection). We are in the midst of an enormous surge in cases. Vaccines are critical but not sufficient – need public health measures like masks.
Scientific studies now robustly support the effectiveness of mask mandates in schools. They will reduce infections in kids and staff, and importantly reduce student sick leave which most negatively effects marginalized children and widens disparities.
• This condition will have major and likely long lasting impact on family life, work and school, and the health system.
• Canada needs a plan that matches the scope of problem.
• See the Science Table brief on Long COVID for more details:
@DFisman
@cdavidnaylor
Thank you David. The critical early recognition of aerosolized transmission and high degree of mask use and compliance in Japan must be recognized.
The XBB.1.5 surge has arrived in Canada, now representing ~20% of all infections in Ontario (was ~2% at end of Dec). The US trajectory suggests this will be associated with a moderate rise in COVID hospitalizations.
Local modelling would be very helpful to quantify this.
1/3
Appreciated the chance to speak to
@namshine
on
@TheAgenda
- as parents, we share the concerns of so many across the country. There are only limited options that will work quickly enough to reduce this viral surge: public health measures + vaccination are essential.
@rodlim00
The pandemic is not over. Infections still matter. This winter may prove difficult with even a modest COVID and flu wave given our severely strained health system. Transparent and timely data, vaccination, and public health measures like high quality masks are essential.
Public health measures can effectively reduce childhood flu cases. Typically 1500 children are hospitalized in Canada each year, but in 2020-2021 there remarkably were zero hospitalizations:
I am working on the wards right now and these are scary times in the hospital - we are seeing a variant of concern (VOC) driven surge in younger and sicker patients admitted with COVID. Our
@COVIDSciOntario
brief.
@AshTuite
@DFisman
The very opposite of vaccine hesitancy! This is great to see as Ontario ramps up its vaccine delivery. Let’s set ambitious targets and get the vaccine out to the people.
Our healthcare crisis making international news.
It is essential we take all necessary steps to control the pandemic to keep our system health system functioning over the fall winter.
@cdavidnaylor
@KatharineSmart
@AlikaMD
@ArthurSlutsky
1/3
Waste water signal rise after a couple weeks of decline. Mixed findings by sub-region.
We should keep a eye on this and the next %positivity result over the week ahead.
Highlights the elevated baseline we have been sitting at since Omicron’s emergence.
1/2
So communication from NACI uses anecdote and we have
@EvanLSolomon
arguing the population perspective. I'm a bit speechless. We are in the Twilight Zone phase of the pandemic.
"If for instance my sister got the AZ vaccine and died of a thrombosis when I know it could have been prevented and that she is not in a high risk area, I'm not sure I could live with it" - Dr. Quach, from NACI with
@EvanLSolomon
on
@CTV_PowerPlay
Our new
@COVIDSciOntario
brief on the Post COVID-19 Condition (PCC, "Long COVID")
The science around this is incomplete, but probably ~10% of people who are infected will develop the PCC - Symptoms that last beyond initial infection for weeks to months. 🧵
As expected, XBB.1.5 (36%) overcame BQ.1.1 (25%) as most prevalent lineage this week in Ontario - we continue to follow the US trajectory. Standard PHM apply: keep your vaccines up to date, masks in crowded indoor settings, focus on air quality, etc
Thank you to Peter Juni for his incredible leadership and to
@SteiniBrown
and Brian Schwartz for their wisdom guiding us through countless challenges.
As we push through the next phase of the pandemic, I hope that science will continue to help us determine the best way forward.
This is the kind of Op-Ed you never want to write - Ideally Canada would have abundant vaccine supply. That is not our current reality.
@skepticalIDdoc
@TorontoStar
As our final work,
@COVIDSciOntario
, today released a 3-part brief on primary care and the pandemic. Much of the burden of COVID-19 care will fall on primary care in the months and years to come, especially vaccination, early outpatient treatment and long COVID care.
1/5
[1/20]: The Science Table completes its work this week. As our final work we are releasing our largest brief, a focus on the core of all health systems: primary care.
@mustafahirji
What a beautifully balanced and thoughtful thread - especially in light of what must have been an incredibly tough day for you. A lot to learn from how you have responded.
Given the significant pressures we face in pediatric acute care,
@sickkids
supports a mask mandate.
Pls do your part by wearing masks in public settings + get your COVID and flu vaccines .
🙏
@ronald_cohn
for your leadership.
Time-limited mask requirements in crowded essential settings (e.g. transit, grocery stores, etc.) are a key part of the response. With clear explanation, Canadians will accept these actions to protect our healthcare system:
@Megan_Ogilvie
@KenyonWallace
Family & caregivers are the core of proving the best medical care. Our
@globeandmail
oped argues that available science does not show hospital visitors are an important mechanism of COVID spread. But lots of evidence for harm with restrictions 1/n
Wonderful profile of
@AlikaMD
. Along with
@KatharineSmart
we have been so fortune these past two years for clear-eyed, tough and honest leadership through this crisis.
@carlyweeks
@CMA_Docs
An extraordinary paper on MS demonstrating overwhelming association with EBV infection. A rigorous comparator design showing no effect with other viral infections. Thinking tonight of my mom who has struggled with this terrible disease for 40 years.
Our op-ed on the role of generalist care in Canada's hospitals. Driven by demographic trends (aging population + rising multi-morbidity) and shifting models of care delivery (50%⬆️in admissions to general medical wards over last decade). 1/4
@AmolAVerma
The Path Out of the Pandemic - A Canada Day Re-Opening. 🎇🎆 🍁
@cdavidnaylor
+ Art Slutsky - Our
@GlobeDebate
Op Ed
Let's be ambitious. Let's commit to a July 1st reopening.
The example of the UK and Canada's own modelling tell us this is possible.
Canada needs a clear strategy and infrastructure to address long COVID - this starts with recognition and management of this condition by clinicians.
Our 3 part
@CMAJ
series on diagnosis, assessment and treatment of long COVID.
@kieranlquinn
@AngelaMCheung
1/5
I’m glad to see funding directly tied to protecting our public system. We can expand capacity, and address wait times and backlogs, while still keeping to our principles.
@DFisman
thank you David! Was struck by some of the new research on potential risk.
We are making some scientific headway now but in the meanwhile must keep cases as low as possible to reduce both short and long-term suffering.
Take steps to protect yourself and our strained healthcare system: high quality masks in crowded indoor settings, avoiding gatherings when sick, improving air-quality, etc.
Bivalent vaccines likely protective - but most eligible Canadians not up to date, now is the time!
2/3
I am delighted to see
@LynnGuerriero
named CEO of Niagara Health. An incredibly smart, dedicated and moral person who will provide crucial leadership in this challenging time.
However, the 4-month delay should make exceptions for groups like the immuno-compromised or the elderly who may not mount a robust immune response to just one dose. This is an emerging science:
Got to visit one afternoon last week with Rob. On the way out he told me this article was coming and said:
“Jill, she can !$&! write!”
Classic Sarge line :)
Thank you Rob and thank you
@JillianHortonMD
for this beautiful piece.
The 'mean' is becoming less meaningful as populations pull apart! Population health reporting must routinely include measures of spread and inequality.
As someone with young children (and one starting in kindergarten in a month) I’ve been looking closely at the US for insight about the impact of a Delta wave on kids. This is worrying - more kids hospitalized now than at any point in the pandemic.
@CP24
this headline will increase vaccine hesitancy at the very moment Ontario broke 3000+ cases for 2 straight days with already overflowing hospitals. ~ 18,099,970 vaccinated with AZ in the UK with no clots and they continue to recommend it’s use. That’s the headline!
Structural and human-resource challenges decades in the making will take years to address - We must double down on simple public health measures that can keep our health care system working. With:
@cdavidnaylor
@KatharineSmart
@AlikaMD
@ArthurSlutsky
Continued decline of COVID wastewater signal overall in Ontario and in most regions. Along with a decline in % positivity in COVID testing, this is suggestive the XBB.1.5 wave is receding. Hope this trend continues.
Out article in
@CMAJ
led by
@laveenamunshi
with
@skepticalIDdoc
.
Main argument: The best available science suggests we should relax visitor restrictions to hospital during the COVID pandemic. It’s also the humane thing to do. 1/n
Good to see overall waste water signal decreasing provincially (and in most sub regions) despite continued rise in XBB.1.5 prevalence. Hope this trend continues.
Important thread from one of Ontario’s largest hospital networks that gives a thoughtful description of the multiple factors driving the crisis in hospitals. There’s no doubt that COVID has made this much worse, but important to note it is layering onto many pre-existing factors.
🧵To our community: Our hospitals are under immense pressure. Severe staffing shortages, high demand for hospital services, and the arrival of the 7th COVID wave are burdening our teams. These are the highlights. For more details, visit our website. 1/15
The Third Wave of COVID-19 is the greatest healthcare crisis Canada has faced. Our
@GlobeDebate
OpEd.
Its a consequential statement I would never feel comfortable making without the deep experience and knowledge of
@cdavidnaylor
and Art Slutsky. 1/n
There is a crisis in Canadian hospitals as respiratory viruses surge. And its only early November. This data driven analysis by
@CBCQueensPark
captures the breadth of dysfunction. Mask mandates in essential crowded indoor settings like transit and grocery stores are needed now.
You've heard reports of large numbers of children showing up at certain hospital ERs with respiratory infections.
This is the first news story to reveal Ontario-wide data showing the full extent of the problem.
After months of smaller surges in omicron variants, XBB.1.5 has emerged as the clear dominant variant with US prevalence doubling to >40% in the last week - likely that Canada follows this pattern shortly. We know it outcompetes prior variants, severity/immune escape TBD. 1/5
New data show the
#COVID19
variant
#XBB
.1.5 is projected to make up 40.5% of COVID-19 cases nationally. See thread below for what we currently know and on what you can do to protect yourself.
See COVID Data Tracker:
The XBB.1.5 surge in the US resulted in a moderate rise in COVID hospitalizations. We should try and mitigate against this using established PHM such as a well fitted high quality masks in indoor crowded settings, getting vaccination up to date, improving indoor air quality, etc.
@DFisman
There are still lots people alive still who can talk about this time. My father had smallpox and will forever have the scars to prove it. As was the practice then in India - he was left in a room with a nurse who had survived smallpox as his only contact and caregiver.
Really interesting results from COVID-OUT looking at Long COVID. In this RCT:
- 10.6% of placebo control got Long COVID
- Metformin reduced this to 6.3%
- Ivermectin and fluvoxamine had no impact on Long COVID
Outstanding article by
@ErinAnderssen
on Long COVID. It can be severe and disabling, even if you are young and healthy before infection. We have no treatment for Long COVID but it’s nearly completely preventable by vaccination. Get vaccinated!
Thank you
@UofT
for this team award to the hundreds of individuals who volunteered their time working with
@COVIDSciOntario
.
Importantly, this award also recognizes the principles that guided us: interdisciplinarity, transparency, and a focus on equity.
We still have much to do to combat the pandemic. But consider that Spanish Influenza death rate was ~10-15x higher than today – vaccines, treatment and public health measures are part of what allowed these enormous strides. As is remarkable solidarity by the public.
11/12
The UK is a major user of the AZ vaccine (18 million doses given) and has updated its estimate to ~1 in 400,000 for the most feared complication of cerebral venous clots. This is a very rare event. Canadians should take the first vaccine offered 1/2
Congratulations to
@AndreasLaupacis
on being appointed to the Order of Canada. A dear friend and mentor who has guided so many of us over the years and made a huge impact on healthcare.
Thanks
@ToddCTV
for having me on
@CTVNews
. We are looking at a very tough few weeks in hospitals - little that can change that now. Lets shorten the time to the peak: Please take whatever steps you can to reduce spread + the first vaccine you are offered!
An extremely difficult topic but grateful to
@COVIDSciOntario
@ASPphysician
@MPaiMD
for helping physicians + the health system with the difficult process of rationing Tocilizumab. Lets use our supply of this critical C19 treatment as fairly as possible.
Claim 2: We have not tried to repurpose existing drugs
In fact, most current therapeutics are repurposed: dex, baricitinib, tocilizumab, remdesivir, heparin, budesonide, and fluvoxamine. Many other repurposed drugs were tested but don’t work, eg. ivermectin, lopinavir, etc
4/12
Improving air quality makes sense not just for COVID, but for other respiratory viruses and human health – this is an investment that will help us in the short term and in the future.
This must start with clear, strong and persistent communication to the public about the extent of the crisis to provide rationale for these steps.
@BogochIsaac
Are most people aware of the desperate situation many parents and children are in as medication shortages compound this surge and a further backlog in care occurs?
@onthebeat1
@BrooksFallis
Very sorry to hear this Brooks. I agree there is an important gap in clinical and support structures for this important condition impacting so many Canadians and their families. This has to be a priority to address.
Claim 3: Our faith in vaccines was misplaced
The latest data from
@COVIDSciOntario
shows 2-dose vaccines reduce the risks of hospitalization by >80% and ICU >90% There is even stronger protection with three doses. These have always been the most important outcomes.
5/12
In the 1st wave we could only offer oxygen and supportive care. Now
@COVIDSciOntario
recommends 10 therapeutics agents. This is the fastest development of treatment for a new disease we have ever seen in our careers.
3/12
There is a decline in vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic illness, but this was never the primary objective of vaccination. The natural immunity approach Doidge advocates may have gotten us to the same endpoint, but with a lot more deaths and Long-COVID along the way.
6/12
Claim 5: Medical Boards Are Suppressing Speech
The legal responsibility of boards is to ensure safety. Example:
@cpso_ca
investigating doctors accused of providing false vaccine exemptions. The production of allegedly falsified medical documentation is NOT free speech.
8/12
A landmark moment, recognizing how much we have achieved as a society, in healthcare, and in research advances to overcome this disease. At the same time, I hope the nuances of this message are not lost. There is significant ongoing damage from COVID that we can & must contain.
The
@WHO
has just declared an end to the
#COVID19
public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC).
"I declare COVID-19 over as a global health emergency", says
@DrTedros
at press conference going on now.
Spoke to
@RosieBarton
re: BA5 & vaccination.
1) ~40% of adults have not received a 3rd dose. It provides significant protection – now is the time.
2) If you are 60+ or immunocompromised, 4th doses are helpful. But for everyone else, speak to your doctor.
‘These are days of miracle and wonder...’ thanks
@PaulSimonMusic
for capturing the hope I feel (along with dread at the tough months to come) as I get the
#CovidVaccine
. Will show this photo to my kids when they are older. Proud to be a scientist today!
What a remarkably good piece of science communication. Sincere thanks to
@SabiVM
@MPaiMD
for writing this.
@cdavidnaylor
Understanding the blood clot issue behind the AstraZeneca vaccine and its safety | The Star
Important study demonstrating that improving air quality is associated with a larger mortality reduction for low income and racialized groups. A compelling argument for addressing structural determinants of health.
@NEJM
Given the lack of a mask mandate, at minimum we need an aggressive public campaign:
- broad community outreach
- role modelling by Public Health/Government leaders
- making masks freely available at public settings
@BogochIsaac
Compared to the original strain, patients infected with VOCs have:
>60% chance of being hospitalized,
>50% mortality,
double the risk of ICU admission.
Compared to the start of the December lock-down, right now there are 50% more COVID patients <age 60 admitted to the ICU.
Love this recognition of one of the marvels of the pandemic - the individuals who drove our vaccine rollout. Took a village: from procurement to informing physicians to front line engagement and advocating for equity.
Ontario’s vaccine heroes of 2021
Critical question from the CEO of one of our most important children’s hospitals
@SickKidsNews
“Where will all the sick kids go?”
Masks and vaccines are critical to help blunt this surge.
@picardonhealth
“Where will all the sick kids go?” It feels surreal to find ourselves in a situation where this is a question being – rightfully – posed in
@TheGlobeandMail
. We are seeing unprecedented patient volumes at
@SickKidsNews
for this time of year.
Many scientists we respect disagree with this strategy and it's important to value their perspectives. In the end, this virus continues to surprise us a year after it first emerged - we are humbled by how little we still know. The 'right' answer today may not be tomorrow.
@DFisman
I think mortality rate was >30% then for children. Families would not see their kids again until they either died or survived and cleared the virus. I can’t imagine the terror.
The omicron wave comes at a difficult time with enhanced transmission from cold weather + the holidays accelerating spread. An understandable frustrated fatalism abounds (h/t ghostwriter Oscar)
Our Op Ed with
#ArtSlutsky
and
@cdavidnaylor
🧵1/5
Received
#covidvacccine
yesterday and no reaction, no site soreness (which I normally get with every other vaccine). Makes me wonder about prior asymptomatic exposure given potentially higher rates of seroconversion among healthcare workers. Thoughts
@ASPphysician
@BogochIsaac
?
Great example of how easily CO2 monitoring can help with decision making around the safety of spaces. I hope we see this technology widely embraced.
@MarkLautens
Feeling good about the air quality in the building
@chemuoft
after my “group-meeting experiment” measuring CO2.
• 450 ± 15 ppm in my office and our seminar room
• 650 ppm 10 min after 15 group members entered the seminar room
• 702 ppm was the maximum level (with me talking!)
Claim 4: Variants are caused by mRNA vaccines
Early misinformation claimed Delta was produced by vaccination (actually detected Oct 2020, well before the first vaccines). Current theories of Omicron’s emergence include animal reservoirs, or an immunocompromised individual.
7/12
Incredibly excited that my MIL, the amazing Rosemary Conliffe, has received the Owen Adams Award from
@CMA_Docs
. This is the highest award given to non-physicians and she follows last year's awardee
@picardonhealth
and many other luminaries.
1/3
This Israeli real world study of vaccine impact is just stunning from a scientific perspective (event rates essentially go flat at 21 days for the vaccinated group) and an execution perspective when you realize the n in each group in fig 2 is >500,000.
My first patient with long-COVID died in hospital - Someone I first met during initial admission with COVID in the spring and shocking to see the non-resolving multi-system effects on repeated admissions since then. Worrying for long-term burden on patients and the health system.
With angst re NACI, very helpful interview with
@picardonhealth
. I'm one of the scientists guilty of 'dancing on the head of a pin' and have learned so much on
#scicomm
listening to
@dlsphjournalism
advice on
@COVIDSciOntario
science briefs this year.
Highly innovative program to treat intoxicated homeless individuals outside of the ER - Better specialized treatment while freeing up ERs and ambulance services. Hope it can be quickly evaluated and scaled.
@drandrewb
@KevinSmithUHN
@UHN
@TorontoMedics
Claim 6: There is a “Master Narrative” Response
So much has been debated with huge differences in policy across countries. Consider vaccine debates: Canada - the delay between doses. UK - the slow approval for children. US - no approval for AZ. There is no Master Narrative!
9/12
Thank you
@OntariosDoctors
for the opportunity to be part of this excellent panel about the primary role of science in combatting the COVID pandemic. As always, learned so much from my excellent colleagues
@skepticalIDdoc
and
@jkwan_md