Dutch eurocrat: “This is the most boring crisis ever... It just goes on and on and on, about the same thing. And, you know, the British reputation will be ruined for decades – like France in the 1980s. That will be the UK. You can see it happening already"
“At that point, a befuddled Johnson turned to David Frost, his chief negotiator, and Stephen Barclay, Brexit secretary, and said: “So you're telling me the SPS plan doesn’t solve the customs problem?”
"one group that will do well out of this: UK-based EU passport holders,... able to advertise themselves... to British employers and to EU service buyers, as being able to travel unhindered around the bloc. Best-placed... will be Irish passport holders"
A quick look at the German press today and it's the question of possible Scottish independence and a 'return home' to the EU that's getting more prominent coverage than the state of play in the UK-EU negotiations
The Northern Ireland Protocol bill has its Second Reading today
What do voters in Northern Ireland think about the possibility of unilateral UK government action?
Recent polling shows a clear majority (74%) prefer a UK-EU agreement on the Protocol's implementation
"Normally, senior political figures would be ashamed to claim that they did not understand a treaty they negotiated, signed and hailed as a triumph. Not this time. There is a strategic deployment of gormlessness to avoid the even worse option...
Varadkar: "All the EU leaders who spoke gave me their absolute support in standing behind Ireland, and saying that an agreement that doesn’t work for Ireland doesn’t work for the EU. I am leaving [Salzburg] very reassured"
The United Kingdom, our
@NATO
and
@G7
allies are determined to stop Putin in Ukraine.
Together we are doing all we can to support the Ukrainian people, isolate Russia on the international stage and ensure Putin fails.
‘There must be a recognition that these barriers to trade are not, as some have claimed, “bonkers”, but rather the consequences of the trade relationship that the UK has willingly sought to achieve with the EU’ -
@BillyMeloAraujo
Starmer also with Frost in his sights: “It is hard to know whether Lord Frost is merely naive or deliberately provocative…. Whichever it is, the strategy of brinkmanship and picking fights in Northern Ireland is not the work of a serious politician”
Coveney: "The DUP represents a minority of people in Northern Ireland... The majority of people in Northern Ireland are looking for something quite different from what the DUP is looking for, and yet the DUP is given this platform as if it speaks for Northern Ireland.”
Coveney on the backstop question: "If the issues aren’t resolved in three years you can’t do away with the insurance mechanism. We can’t accept a time limit..."
"By the time referendum result came in, Kenny and his team had already honed a message for their European allies: for you, this might be about market access, but for us, it’s about peace.. The British, who’d barely considered the issue, seemed unprepared"
"A 90-page draft of the new border arrangements... lays bare the complicated new paperwork facing all businesses from 1 January, whether there is a deal or not. Sources say a later draft runs to more than 100 pages..."
"It is one of the truly remarkable things about Brexit, that such a wrenching change to the UK’s trading arrangements with its nearest neighbours should have taken place with so little cognisance of — or consultation with — those that do the trading"
"EU can play a constructive part by helping to find technical solutions to... problems... However, some of these problems are of the British government’s own making... They boil down to the fact that Johnson... has never come clean about his Brexit deal"
‘65% of survey respondents favoured a “strong preference” for the UK voluntarily following EU regulations if that led to cheaper imports.’
Move would also assist significantly in reducing the need for GB-NI checks etc under the Protocol.
"At the heart of all this is amateurism. Anybody can have a go at running a country... Good leaders, whether executives or politicians, surround themselves with talent. Weak, narcissistic, insecure prime ministers... fear the expert" -
@skiduffer
Coveney: “I spend at least two-thirds of my time on Brexit... I should be doing other things. We as a small country are spending hundreds of millions of taxpayers’ money investing in contingency plans for a no-deal Brexit which we don’t think will happen”
'"[May] told them [at Salzburg] it was “Chequers or nothing.”... “That lost her 10 member states,” according to one diplomat. Then, when she tried to divide the group by claiming that Belgium and the Netherlands supported her, she lost them too"
Lamy: “You sign a treaty and a few months later, you say, ‘no, no, no, no, that is not what I meant when I signed’ – you don’t have to be a seasoned diplomat to understand that this would be a big, big break of trust”
‘Berlin has… judged this is the appropriate time to send a “blunter” message that the UK must abandon any ambitions to rewrite the protocol… Germany also wants to dispel any suggestion that the row is merely an issue between the UK and Ireland only’
John Bruton: "The only option that will not damage the structure of the peace we have so painstakingly built between Ireland and Britain, and within the island of Ireland, would be for the UK to decide to stay in the EU after all"
Coveney: "I think there is a sense within the EU and within EU capitals that the frustration has got to result in the EU perhaps changing the approach. And instead of constantly trying to offer solutions and flexibility, remind the UK that there are...
Coveney: “[the narrative] now is that [the Protocol] is being foisted on Northern Ireland by the EU and Irish Government and it’s not... [It] was designed as much in London as it was in Brussels, which people seem to conveniently forget”
Senior Whitehall figure: “The red lines in that [Birmingham] speech were all for tub-thumping domestic consumption and without any serious thought as to how they would land elsewhere. [May] literally did not understand what she had said.”
Coveney: “There will be no withdrawal agreement without the backstop, end of story... To suggest moving away from [the agreed, legally operable backstop] now is not going to fly with Ireland or the EU as a whole”
‘Privately, according to officials present, von der Leyen warned leaders that no-deal, in which the two sides fall back on [WTO] rules, would be better than caving to British demands and ending up with a bad, lopsided agreement.’
“The EU’s response is that life would be much more trouble-free for consumers and businesses if the UK had accepted the EU’s offer to align with its SPS rules, an offer the UK flatly refused because of its sovereignty demands”
"In European capitals there is now mounting alarm that Theresa May has set Britain on course for a diplomatic disaster, by fundamentally misjudging how far EU leaders are prepared to bend at the last minute..."
Barnier: “A third country, the United Kingdom, will not dictate the conditions of access to our market for British goods, services, data or for workers and businesses … We remain sovereign. This is my mandate.”
‘Industry sources in Northern Ireland dismissed the legislation, if passed by the UK parliament, as unworkable, with one saying the dual regulatory regime would be “a disaster”, particularly for the agrifood sector’
"A source tells me DUP leaders are being squeezed by Johnson heavies: agree to something close to the backstop or reconcile yourselves to joint authority with Dublin and a Border poll." -
@DevlinMartina
"the British Eurosceptic class is very ignorant about the EU and how it works and what drives it. So they clutch at straws. They mistake Merkel because her tone is polite and moderate.” -
@CER_Grant
Recommended reading before Tuesday's vote
"The irony is that the UK-wide customs arrangement is almost universally loathed as something the EU is forcing on the UK, when in fact it was London’s invention, and one that it pushed to keep the DUP on board."
'Some 58.4% said they would favour Northern Ireland remaining “more closely aligned with the EU than the rest of the UK”, while 39.5% said they would vote against; 2.1% did not know how they would vote'
Senior Irish Government source: "There’s a new idea or solution being mooted every week"; Dublin only “interested in proposals that are written down... On paper like. Or on a screen. We are at legal text stage. We need legal texts to draft and debate.”
“The UK has signalled it could accept customs controls on goods destined only for sale in Northern Ireland, its first significant concession during months of talks… The verbal offer was considered so sensitive it has not yet been provided in written form”
“We are confused about how the [PM] can be so unequivocal in his assertion that there won’t be any checks, controls or paper work requirement while at the same time being so unequivocal that the UK will not be aligned with the EU" -
@ManufacturingNI
‘Tusk was particularly miffed at the blame frequently directed at Brussels. “He was not insulting the British voters — not at all — it’s not their fault,” the official said. “It’s the people who led them, or misled them.”’
"If there is a border poll... why would young people [in NI], who move fluidly across the border and for whom LGBT rights are a core principle, want to remain in an angry, conservative backwater rather than be part of a progressive, united modern Ireland?"
"Trade is like water – it will find the path of least resistance. For us, this [increase in north-south trade] is the natural consequence not just of Brexit but the Brexit that [the UK government] chose” -
@ManufacturingNI
"in all of the draft texts presented by the UK side during the negotiations in September/October 2019, not one included a recommendation that the state aid implications in the revised Protocol be dropped or amended"
Highly recommended from
@tconnellyRTE
Sixty years ago today, on 9 August 1961, the UK government submitted a first application for membership of the European Economic Community (EEC), what is now the EU
"Brexit would not have happened if there was not a cohort of dishonest Brexit crusaders pushing for it, but also if there was not a cohort of voters who fall back on British identity as superior... who see Britishness as exceptional and elevated..."
“The DUP is actively seeking to downplay the implications of Brexit for the Belfast Agreement, for North-South co-operation and for Northern Ireland generally... their arguments are being systematically demolished by experts like
@hayward_katy
”
What do voters in Northern Ireland think about the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland?
Out today, a third ‘Testing the Temperature’ report from
@PostBrexitGovNI
on findings from polling by
@LucidTalk
in early October
Full report here:
Some highlights:
'Diplomats said that even traditional UK allies such as Germany had been spooked by Mr Johnson’s internal market bill... “What happened on Ireland has really hardened the Europeans’ [position], especially [that of] the Germans”...
FT editorial: “this ruling leaves a stain on his character and competence. Faced with such a damning judgment, any premier with a shred of respect for British democracy and the responsibilities of his office would resign”
What's really impressive about the plans for a purported 'Boris Burrow' is the assumption about where the Stranraer to Larne route would start and finish...
Two years ago today, the UK government set out its proposals for a replacement version to the ‘backstop’ Protocol.
It’s worth a re-read for what it says about what the first Johnson government was willing to accept for Northern Ireland, at least as…
Vernon Bogdanor: "the DUP’s hostility to the backstop is self-defeating since a hard border could lead nationalists in Northern Ireland to call for Irish unity... The backstop, paradoxically, is a guarantee for Northern Ireland not a threat."
"The world contains three economic superpowers: the US, the EU (without the UK) and China. These generated about 60 per cent of global output last year. The UK’s contribution was 3 per cent. It is large for a minnow, but still a minnow"
German President in Ireland: "[I hope] very much that the United Kingdom will continue to stand by the Protocol that was signed in London... [Ireland's European partners are] firmly on Ireland's side"
“We have all been trying to find something in Brexit that can unite us... I’m excited to say that I think I’ve found a contender: we can all agree that we have had enough of the Democratic Unionist Party. Not Unionism or the Union. The DUP” - Finkelstein
“The Europeans note that almost everyone in the British negotiating team is new and that Johnson’s government is making the same mistakes as May’s, notably by shuttling around EU capitals to badmouth Michel Barnier as well as the Irish.”
"There seems to have been a categorical error among [UK] ministers in particular, that these deals were about how much we trade with each other, whereas they are actually all about the rules which govern trade." -
@DavidHenigUK
“The hostility borne towards Varadkar [in the right-wing British press] comes from... an ignorance of Ireland’s political culture, and a starkly different perspective on what the EU is and what it is for.”
"EU political leaders are unanimous: UK failure to apply any aspects of the protocol would cripple trade talks... The [EU] could not politically countenance a deal with a government trying to wriggle out of an international treaty [with it]."
Coveney: "let’s be very clear, there will be no withdrawal agreement, no transition agreement and no managed Brexit if the British government do not follow through on their clear commitments in writing to Ireland and the whole EU.”
via
@IrishTimes
Varadkar: “The withdrawal agreement is actually an international treaty. It’s not the kind of thing that can be amended or cobbled together late at night at the European Council meeting on 17th of October. So if the UK does have meaningful proposals,...
We're focussed on getting a good deal that honours the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement, but as Brexit Secretary
@SteveBarclay
told business leaders in Paris this week we're leaving 🇪🇺 on 31 October whatever happens.
#BrexitReady
"The irony of Dunkirk becoming a new entry point to Europe for Ireland in the wake of Brexit when it was the scene of a famous British exit from Europe during wartime is not lost on many."
What do voters in Northern Ireland think about the UK government triggering Article 16?
Latest opinion polling for
@PostBrexitGovNI
by
@LucidTalk
shortly *before* the European Commission published its proposals for further flexibilities on implementing the Protocol:
Editorial: "It would appear that the DUP is actively pursuing a policy designed to ensure the restoration of the hardest possible border on the island regardless of the consequences for living standards of the people of [NI] or... the future of peace"
"London's new Brexit strategy is to inflict as much commercial damage on Ireland as possible. Given that Ireland... has been an impeccable neighbour and a calm, dependable partner in... Northern Ireland, this new aggression seems unjustified."
“lawyer Richard Gray… of Carson McDowell, which advises on EU issues, said concerns about ECJ oversight have not featured in any queries from the firm’s clients nor is he aware of any business organisations raising it on behalf of their companies”
"the UK has the option of delaying everything by extending the transition period, and thereby pausing all of the obligations of the Protocol. So far every senior British figure, including Mr Gove, has simply refused to countenance this"
"One senior EU official is very pessimistic. The impasse over legally copperfastening the UK’s no-hard-Border commitment could shortly, single-handedly, bring the Brexit talks process to a crashing halt, the source warns."
via
@IrishTimesOpEd
Fintan O’Toole: "When all of this is done... a question will puzzle historians. How did absurd characters like Boris Johnson, Jacob Rees-Mogg... come to exert such influence on the fate of nations?"
2018 record-breaking year for Irish passport applications:
84,855 applications from Northern Ireland (+2%)
98,544 applications from Great Britain (+22%)
Is the
#Brexit
#backstop
anti-democratic?
A persistent argument against it is the claim that it makes Northern Ireland a voiceless "rule-taker".
Here's a mega-thread based on research with
@hayward_katy
taking a closer look at this issue.
1/25
Interview with historian Roy Foster in last weekend’s Irish Times
“After five decades of being an Irishman in England, how does he feel about the two countries’ relationship now?”
“For all the DUP scaremongering about Dublin’s designs on the North through the Trojan horse of Brexit... it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that what the DUP fears is what unionists have always most feared – not Dublin’s designs, but betrayal by London”
"May should meet with the Northern Ireland remain parties with more votes than their DUP opponents... she might even be able to spot a nascent Northern Ireland in the making: one that is warmer, more tolerant and connected to the wishes of its people"
It’s as if the European Economic Area (EEA) Agreement providing Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway participation in the EU internal market doesn’t exist.
Today the UK signed the most advanced trade deal that Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein have ever agreed 🇬🇧🇳🇴🇮🇸🇱🇮
This will:
👉Slash tariffs & support jobs
👉Boost a trading relationship worth £21.6 bn
👉Cut red tape, making it easier for firms to export across borders 👇
“English politicians and Northern Ireland’s Unionists have done more to unite Ireland in three years than Irish republicans managed in a century” -
@KuperSiimon
"The stark reality of the Irish Border is that it was never intended to be an international boundary... It has seen customs posts, cratering, spiking, checkpoints, and militarisation.. [and] has never been “softer” than.. at the present" -
@ConorMulvagh
Despite the EU's apparent aversion to repeating the multi-agreement approach of its relationship with Switzerland, is this where post-Brexit UK-EU relations are heading? Long read from
@tconnellyRTE
'Liam Fox, who attacked remainers for “hysterical prophecies of doom” in the weeks before the Brexit referendum, has now said the Union, Northern Ireland, fishing and farming are under threat.'
"According to sources closely involved throughout that period, nothing was hidden, and Boris Johnson and his team were fully cognisant of all the state aid implications (and, indeed, the details around tariffs and exit summary declarations)."
Shrewd move by Merkel. No commitment to renegotiate; no agreement to abandon backstop. But wants to know what UK government thinks would work: "We will first listen to Britain's proposals". Question is: what has UK got to offer?
"The DUP has said it will vote down Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal this Saturday and warned that no amount of money can win them over, despite attempts by Downing Street to offer a new financial package for Northern Ireland"
Varadkar: "the people ... decided on Brexit and it’s not my job to help prime minister May or the [UK] government .. my job to make sure that we don’t have a hard border on our island and ... that the negative effect of [Brexit] is minimised.”
From today's Irish Times:
"Democracy is (apparently) … endlessly asking MPs if they have changed their minds"
"Democracy isn't (apparently) … ever asking the public if they have changed theirs"
via
@IrishTimesOpEd
If backstop entered into force, NI business groups' study suggests only nine trailers from GB to NI each day would have to be checked. "The backstop appears to offer the most seamless solution in the event of it ever being required.” -
@Freight_NI
“Johnson’s position is such that he will be unable to accept any deal Brussels offers [on the Protocol] because it could never be good enough to satisfy the hardline Eurosceptics on his backbenches.” -
@denisstaunton
"Downing Street is probably correct.. there is little appetite in European capitals for a standoff.. over the protocol. But there is none at all for reopening the text...[no European leader] feels any obligation to accommodate [Johnson]" -
@denisstaunton
Barnier: “The UK has chosen to become a third country, to leave the single market and the customs union... It has chosen to create two regulatory spaces. This makes frictionless trade impossible. It makes checks indispensable.”
Dairy Council NI: “If we crash out on October 31 we do not have the capacity to process all the milk that will be produced, and we will not be able to afford to pay EU tariffs or navigate the EU certification requirements such that we can...
Johnson: “If we need to have an Australia-style deal, an Australia-style solution, then that is what we will achieve and we will prosper mightily one way or the other"
'no deal'... as an achievement
“The EU’s negotiating parameters have been clear from day one. A bespoke deal is possible, but only in the sense that every deal the EU has ever negotiated has been bespoke”
via
@IrishTimes