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David Phinnemore

@DPhinnemore

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Professor of European Politics @QUBelfast . EU politics, treaty reform, enlargement, Brexit/Protocol/Windsor Framework | also

Northern Ireland
Joined May 2015
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
5 years
Dutch eurocrat: “This is the most boring crisis ever... It just goes on and on and on, about the same thing. And, you know, the British reputation will be ruined for decades – like France in the 1980s. That will be the UK. You can see it happening already"
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
5 years
“At that point, a befuddled Johnson turned to David Frost, his chief negotiator, and Stephen Barclay, Brexit secretary, and said: “So you're telling me the SPS plan doesn’t solve the customs problem?”
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
3 years
"one group that will do well out of this: UK-based EU passport holders,... able to advertise themselves... to British employers and to EU service buyers, as being able to travel unhindered around the bloc. Best-placed... will be Irish passport holders"
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
5 years
As reported in today’s FT Brussels Briefing
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
3 years
A quick look at the German press today and it's the question of possible Scottish independence and a 'return home' to the EU that's getting more prominent coverage than the state of play in the UK-EU negotiations
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
2 years
The Northern Ireland Protocol bill has its Second Reading today What do voters in Northern Ireland think about the possibility of unilateral UK government action? Recent polling shows a clear majority (74%) prefer a UK-EU agreement on the Protocol's implementation
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
3 years
"Normally, senior political figures would be ashamed to claim that they did not understand a treaty they negotiated, signed and hailed as a triumph. Not this time. There is a strategic deployment of gormlessness to avoid the even worse option...
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
6 years
Varadkar: "All the EU leaders who spoke gave me their absolute support in standing behind Ireland, and saying that an agreement that doesn’t work for Ireland doesn’t work for the EU. I am leaving [Salzburg] very reassured"
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
2 years
No doubt omission of ‘EU allies’ is an oversight…
@trussliz
Liz Truss
2 years
The United Kingdom, our @NATO and @G7 allies are determined to stop Putin in Ukraine. Together we are doing all we can to support the Ukrainian people, isolate Russia on the international stage and ensure Putin fails.
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
3 years
‘There must be a recognition that these barriers to trade are not, as some have claimed, “bonkers”, but rather the consequences of the trade relationship that the UK has willingly sought to achieve with the EU’ - @BillyMeloAraujo
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
3 years
Starmer also with Frost in his sights: “It is hard to know whether Lord Frost is merely naive or deliberately provocative…. Whichever it is, the strategy of brinkmanship and picking fights in Northern Ireland is not the work of a serious politician”
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
6 years
Coveney: "The DUP represents a minority of people in Northern Ireland... The majority of people in Northern Ireland are looking for something quite different from what the DUP is looking for, and yet the DUP is given this platform as if it speaks for Northern Ireland.”
@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
6 years
Coveney on the backstop question: "If the issues aren’t resolved in three years you can’t do away with the insurance mechanism. We can’t accept a time limit..."
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
5 years
"By the time referendum result came in, Kenny and his team had already honed a message for their European allies: for you, this might be about market access, but for us, it’s about peace.. The British, who’d barely considered the issue, seemed unprepared"
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
4 years
"A 90-page draft of the new border arrangements... lays bare the complicated new paperwork facing all businesses from 1 January, whether there is a deal or not. Sources say a later draft runs to more than 100 pages..."
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
3 years
"It is one of the truly remarkable things about Brexit, that such a wrenching change to the UK’s trading arrangements with its nearest neighbours should have taken place with so little cognisance of — or consultation with — those that do the trading"
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
3 years
"EU can play a constructive part by helping to find technical solutions to... problems... However, some of these problems are of the British government’s own making... They boil down to the fact that Johnson... has never come clean about his Brexit deal"
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
2 years
‘65% of survey respondents favoured a “strong preference” for the UK voluntarily following EU regulations if that led to cheaper imports.’ Move would also assist significantly in reducing the need for GB-NI checks etc under the Protocol.
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
3 years
"At the heart of all this is amateurism. Anybody can have a go at running a country... Good leaders, whether executives or politicians, surround themselves with talent. Weak, narcissistic, insecure prime ministers... fear the expert" - @skiduffer
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
5 years
Coveney: “I spend at least two-thirds of my time on Brexit... I should be doing other things. We as a small country are spending hundreds of millions of taxpayers’ money investing in contingency plans for a no-deal Brexit which we don’t think will happen”
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
6 years
'"[May] told them [at Salzburg] it was “Chequers or nothing.”... “That lost her 10 member states,” according to one diplomat. Then, when she tried to divide the group by claiming that Belgium and the Netherlands supported her, she lost them too"
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
4 years
Lamy: “You sign a treaty and a few months later, you say, ‘no, no, no, no, that is not what I meant when I signed’ – you don’t have to be a seasoned diplomat to understand that this would be a big, big break of trust”
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
2 years
‘Berlin has… judged this is the appropriate time to send a “blunter” message that the UK must abandon any ambitions to rewrite the protocol… Germany also wants to dispel any suggestion that the row is merely an issue between the UK and Ireland only’
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
5 years
John Bruton: "The only option that will not damage the structure of the peace we have so painstakingly built between Ireland and Britain, and within the island of Ireland, would be for the UK to decide to stay in the EU after all"
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
3 years
Coveney: "I think there is a sense within the EU and within EU capitals that the frustration has got to result in the EU perhaps changing the approach. And instead of constantly trying to offer solutions and flexibility, remind the UK that there are...
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
3 years
Coveney: “[the narrative] now is that [the Protocol] is being foisted on Northern Ireland by the EU and Irish Government and it’s not... [It] was designed as much in London as it was in Brussels, which people seem to conveniently forget”
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
5 years
Senior Whitehall figure: “The red lines in that [Birmingham] speech were all for tub-thumping domestic consumption and without any serious thought as to how they would land elsewhere. [May] literally did not understand what she had said.”
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
6 years
Coveney: “There will be no withdrawal agreement without the backstop, end of story... To suggest moving away from [the agreed, legally operable backstop] now is not going to fly with Ireland or the EU as a whole”
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
4 years
‘Privately, according to officials present, von der Leyen warned leaders that no-deal, in which the two sides fall back on [WTO] rules, would be better than caving to British demands and ending up with a bad, lopsided agreement.’
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
3 years
“The EU’s response is that life would be much more trouble-free for consumers and businesses if the UK had accepted the EU’s offer to align with its SPS rules, an offer the UK flatly refused because of its sovereignty demands”
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
5 years
"In European capitals there is now mounting alarm that Theresa May has set Britain on course for a diplomatic disaster, by fundamentally misjudging how far EU leaders are prepared to bend at the last minute..."
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
4 years
Barnier: “A third country, the United Kingdom, will not dictate the conditions of access to our market for British goods, services, data or for workers and businesses … We remain sovereign. This is my mandate.”
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
2 years
‘Industry sources in Northern Ireland dismissed the legislation, if passed by the UK parliament, as unworkable, with one saying the dual regulatory regime would be “a disaster”, particularly for the agrifood sector’
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
5 years
Cabinet Office confirms director-general for EU Exit Implementation - and head of Border Delivery Group - to leave his job
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
5 years
"A source tells me DUP leaders are being squeezed by Johnson heavies: agree to something close to the backstop or reconcile yourselves to joint authority with Dublin and a Border poll." - @DevlinMartina
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
4 years
No MPs from Northern Ireland.
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
5 years
"the British Eurosceptic class is very ignorant about the EU and how it works and what drives it. So they clutch at straws. They mistake Merkel because her tone is polite and moderate.” - @CER_Grant
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
5 years
Recommended reading before Tuesday's vote "The irony is that the UK-wide customs arrangement is almost universally loathed as something the EU is forcing on the UK, when in fact it was London’s invention, and one that it pushed to keep the DUP on board."
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
5 years
Looking for a summary of the changes to the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland? Here's a graphic from @hayward_katy and me.
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
5 years
'Some 58.4% said they would favour Northern Ireland remaining “more closely aligned with the EU than the rest of the UK”, while 39.5% said they would vote against; 2.1% did not know how they would vote'
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
6 years
Senior Irish Government source: "There’s a new idea or solution being mooted every week"; Dublin only “interested in proposals that are written down... On paper like. Or on a screen. We are at legal text stage. We need legal texts to draft and debate.”
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
2 years
“The UK has signalled it could accept customs controls on goods destined only for sale in Northern Ireland, its first significant concession during months of talks… The verbal offer was considered so sensitive it has not yet been provided in written form”
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
4 years
“We are confused about how the [PM] can be so unequivocal in his assertion that there won’t be any checks, controls or paper work requirement while at the same time being so unequivocal that the UK will not be aligned with the EU" - @ManufacturingNI
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
5 years
‘Tusk was particularly miffed at the blame frequently directed at Brussels. “He was not insulting the British voters — not at all — it’s not their fault,” the official said. “It’s the people who led them, or misled them.”’
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
5 years
"If there is a border poll... why would young people [in NI], who move fluidly across the border and for whom LGBT rights are a core principle, want to remain in an angry, conservative backwater rather than be part of a progressive, united modern Ireland?"
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
3 years
"Trade is like water – it will find the path of least resistance. For us, this [increase in north-south trade] is the natural consequence not just of Brexit but the Brexit that [the UK government] chose” - @ManufacturingNI
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
4 years
"in all of the draft texts presented by the UK side during the negotiations in September/October 2019, not one included a recommendation that the state aid implications in the revised Protocol be dropped or amended" Highly recommended from @tconnellyRTE
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
3 years
Sixty years ago today, on 9 August 1961, the UK government submitted a first application for membership of the European Economic Community (EEC), what is now the EU
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
5 years
"Brexit would not have happened if there was not a cohort of dishonest Brexit crusaders pushing for it, but also if there was not a cohort of voters who fall back on British identity as superior... who see Britishness as exceptional and elevated..."
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
6 years
“The DUP is actively seeking to downplay the implications of Brexit for the Belfast Agreement, for North-South co-operation and for Northern Ireland generally... their arguments are being systematically demolished by experts like ⁦ @hayward_katy ⁩”
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
3 years
What do voters in Northern Ireland think about the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland? Out today, a third ‘Testing the Temperature’ report from @PostBrexitGovNI on findings from polling by @LucidTalk in early October Full report here: Some highlights:
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
4 years
'Diplomats said that even traditional UK allies such as Germany had been spooked by Mr Johnson’s internal market bill... “What happened on Ireland has really hardened the Europeans’ [position], especially [that of] the Germans”...
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
5 years
FT editorial: “this ruling leaves a stain on his character and competence. Faced with such a damning judgment, any premier with a shred of respect for British democracy and the responsibilities of his office would resign”
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
3 years
What's really impressive about the plans for a purported 'Boris Burrow' is the assumption about where the Stranraer to Larne route would start and finish...
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
3 years
Two years ago today, the UK government set out its proposals for a replacement version to the ‘backstop’ Protocol. It’s worth a re-read for what it says about what the first Johnson government was willing to accept for Northern Ireland, at least as…
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
5 years
Vernon Bogdanor: "the DUP’s hostility to the backstop is self-defeating since a hard border could lead nationalists in Northern Ireland to call for Irish unity... The backstop, paradoxically, is a guarantee for Northern Ireland not a threat."
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
5 years
"The world contains three economic superpowers: the US, the EU (without the UK) and China. These generated about 60 per cent of global output last year. The UK’s contribution was 3 per cent. It is large for a minnow, but still a minnow"
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
3 years
German President in Ireland: "[I hope] very much that the United Kingdom will continue to stand by the Protocol that was signed in London... [Ireland's European partners are] firmly on Ireland's side"
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
5 years
“We have all been trying to find something in Brexit that can unite us... I’m excited to say that I think I’ve found a contender: we can all agree that we have had enough of the Democratic Unionist Party. Not Unionism or the Union. The DUP” - Finkelstein
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
5 years
“The Europeans note that almost everyone in the British negotiating team is new and that Johnson’s government is making the same mistakes as May’s, notably by shuttling around EU capitals to badmouth Michel Barnier as well as the Irish.”
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
4 years
"There seems to have been a categorical error among [UK] ministers in particular, that these deals were about how much we trade with each other, whereas they are actually all about the rules which govern trade." - @DavidHenigUK
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
5 years
“The hostility borne towards Varadkar [in the right-wing British press] comes from... an ignorance of Ireland’s political culture, and a starkly different perspective on what the EU is and what it is for.”
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
4 years
"EU political leaders are unanimous: UK failure to apply any aspects of the protocol would cripple trade talks... The [EU] could not politically countenance a deal with a government trying to wriggle out of an international treaty [with it]."
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
6 years
Coveney: "let’s be very clear, there will be no withdrawal agreement, no transition agreement and no managed Brexit if the British government do not follow through on their clear commitments in writing to Ireland and the whole EU.” via @IrishTimes
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
5 years
Varadkar: “The withdrawal agreement is actually an international treaty. It’s not the kind of thing that can be amended or cobbled together late at night at the European Council meeting on 17th of October. So if the UK does have meaningful proposals,...
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
5 years
"but"
@DExEUgov
Department for Exiting the EU
5 years
We're focussed on getting a good deal that honours the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement, but as Brexit Secretary @SteveBarclay told business leaders in Paris this week we're leaving 🇪🇺 on 31 October whatever happens. #BrexitReady
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
3 years
"The irony of Dunkirk becoming a new entry point to Europe for Ireland in the wake of Brexit when it was the scene of a famous British exit from Europe during wartime is not lost on many."
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
2 years
What do voters in Northern Ireland think about the UK government triggering Article 16? Latest opinion polling for @PostBrexitGovNI by @LucidTalk shortly *before* the European Commission published its proposals for further flexibilities on implementing the Protocol:
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
6 years
Editorial: "It would appear that the DUP is actively pursuing a policy designed to ensure the restoration of the hardest possible border on the island regardless of the consequences for living standards of the people of [NI] or... the future of peace"
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
5 years
"London's new Brexit strategy is to inflict as much commercial damage on Ireland as possible. Given that Ireland... has been an impeccable neighbour and a calm, dependable partner in... Northern Ireland, this new aggression seems unjustified."
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
3 years
“lawyer Richard Gray… of Carson McDowell, which advises on EU issues, said concerns about ECJ oversight have not featured in any queries from the firm’s clients nor is he aware of any business organisations raising it on behalf of their companies”
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
4 years
"the UK has the option of delaying everything by extending the transition period, and thereby pausing all of the obligations of the Protocol. So far every senior British figure, including Mr Gove, has simply refused to countenance this"
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
6 years
"One senior EU official is very pessimistic. The impasse over legally copperfastening the UK’s no-hard-Border commitment could shortly, single-handedly, bring the Brexit talks process to a crashing halt, the source warns." via @IrishTimesOpEd
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
5 years
Fintan O’Toole: "When all of this is done... a question will puzzle historians. How did absurd characters like Boris Johnson, Jacob Rees-Mogg... come to exert such influence on the fate of nations?"
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
3 years
"Rosslare recorded a sixfold increase in freight on direct routes with [continental] Europe this week, while traffic on Irish Sea routes has halved."
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
5 years
2018 record-breaking year for Irish passport applications: 84,855 applications from Northern Ireland (+2%) 98,544 applications from Great Britain (+22%)
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
5 years
Is the #Brexit #backstop anti-democratic? A persistent argument against it is the claim that it makes Northern Ireland a voiceless "rule-taker". Here's a mega-thread based on research with @hayward_katy taking a closer look at this issue. 1/25
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
5 years
‘In a quip about British talk of virtual checks on the Border, Mr Barnier said: “I don’t know how to inspect a cow with virtual methods”.’
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
5 months
Interview with historian Roy Foster in last weekend’s Irish Times “After five decades of being an Irishman in England, how does he feel about the two countries’ relationship now?”
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
6 years
“For all the DUP scaremongering about Dublin’s designs on the North through the Trojan horse of Brexit... it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that what the DUP fears is what unionists have always most feared – not Dublin’s designs, but betrayal by London”
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
6 years
"May should meet with the Northern Ireland remain parties with more votes than their DUP opponents... she might even be able to spot a nascent Northern Ireland in the making: one that is warmer, more tolerant and connected to the wishes of its people"
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
3 years
It’s as if the European Economic Area (EEA) Agreement providing Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway participation in the EU internal market doesn’t exist.
@trussliz
Liz Truss
3 years
Today the UK signed the most advanced trade deal that Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein have ever agreed 🇬🇧🇳🇴🇮🇸🇱🇮 This will: 👉Slash tariffs & support jobs 👉Boost a trading relationship worth £21.6 bn 👉Cut red tape, making it easier for firms to export across borders 👇
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
4 years
“English politicians and Northern Ireland’s Unionists have done more to unite Ireland in three years than Irish republicans managed in a century” - ⁦ @KuperSiimon
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
5 years
"The stark reality of the Irish Border is that it was never intended to be an international boundary... It has seen customs posts, cratering, spiking, checkpoints, and militarisation.. [and] has never been “softer” than.. at the present" - @ConorMulvagh
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
4 years
Despite the EU's apparent aversion to repeating the multi-agreement approach of its relationship with Switzerland, is this where post-Brexit UK-EU relations are heading? Long read from @tconnellyRTE
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
5 years
'Liam Fox, who attacked remainers for “hysterical prophecies of doom” in the weeks before the Brexit referendum, has now said the Union, Northern Ireland, fishing and farming are under threat.'
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
2 years
Frost gone, mist lifting… up in Mournes
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
4 years
"According to sources closely involved throughout that period, nothing was hidden, and Boris Johnson and his team were fully cognisant of all the state aid implications (and, indeed, the details around tariffs and exit summary declarations)."
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
5 years
Shrewd move by Merkel. No commitment to renegotiate; no agreement to abandon backstop. But wants to know what UK government thinks would work: "We will first listen to Britain's proposals". Question is: what has UK got to offer?
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
5 years
"The DUP has said it will vote down Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal this Saturday and warned that no amount of money can win them over, despite attempts by Downing Street to offer a new financial package for Northern Ireland"
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
6 years
Varadkar: "the people ... decided on Brexit and it’s not my job to help prime minister May or the [UK] government .. my job to make sure that we don’t have a hard border on our island and ... that the negative effect of [Brexit] is minimised.”
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
5 years
From today's Irish Times: "Democracy is (apparently) … endlessly asking MPs if they have changed their minds" "Democracy isn't (apparently) … ever asking the public if they have changed theirs" via @IrishTimesOpEd
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
5 years
If backstop entered into force, NI business groups' study suggests only nine trailers from GB to NI each day would have to be checked. "The backstop appears to offer the most seamless solution in the event of it ever being required.” - @Freight_NI
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
2 years
“Johnson’s position is such that he will be unable to accept any deal Brussels offers [on the Protocol] because it could never be good enough to satisfy the hardline Eurosceptics on his backbenches.” - ⁦ @denisstaunton
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
3 years
"Downing Street is probably correct.. there is little appetite in European capitals for a standoff.. over the protocol. But there is none at all for reopening the text...[no European leader] feels any obligation to accommodate [Johnson]" - @denisstaunton
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
4 years
Barnier: “The UK has chosen to become a third country, to leave the single market and the customs union... It has chosen to create two regulatory spaces. This makes frictionless trade impossible. It makes checks indispensable.”
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
5 years
Dairy Council NI: “If we crash out on October 31 we do not have the capacity to process all the milk that will be produced, and we will not be able to afford to pay EU tariffs or navigate the EU certification requirements such that we can...
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
4 years
Johnson: “If we need to have an Australia-style deal, an Australia-style solution, then that is what we will achieve and we will prosper mightily one way or the other" 'no deal'... as an achievement
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
6 years
“The EU’s negotiating parameters have been clear from day one. A bespoke deal is possible, but only in the sense that every deal the EU has ever negotiated has been bespoke” via @IrishTimes
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@DPhinnemore
David Phinnemore
3 years
Macron in Dublin "We are ready to discuss the implementation of the Northern Ireland protocol, but not its renegotiation" - Macron adviser
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