CrazyNinjaMike @CrazyNinjaMike1 Twitter profile

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CrazyNinjaMike

1 year

+1600 boosted to +2000. Caesars' line moved to +750 before tip-off. Great play by YouthLargePapi in the free CNM Discord! Join here ->

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

1 month

Congrats Elias in the CNO Discord! Absolute legend!

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

11 months

Made a devigger assistant tool for @DKSportsbook 's Up By 2 Runs Promo to calculate the EV% for them. It uses historical data calculated using 's SDQL queries to determine the historical percentage of the time that a team got up by 2 runs when they lost.

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

1 month

Shout out to onemanwolfepack in CNO Discord. His +EV play was NC State to make it to final four at +20000. One of us, theghostofbanquo, had $1,025 total on it. Paid out over $200k! #LightningStruckTwice

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

8 months

@PlusEVPenguin @SethBergey I still do some high EV betting on the side and am up well over 6 figures this year alone. As long as I'm making that much, I don't see a rush to charge anything. My server costs are pretty low. My donations alone have been covering that. Thankful for the community. I'm happy :)

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

4 months

Ton of player prop and alt market arbs showing up on (free site). The "Mainline Only" and "Hedge Strategy" settings are enabled by default to encourage new users to hedge promos with mainlines. To enable player props, follow the red text on any tool page.

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

1 year

@PromoGuyUS @PointsBetUSA @PromoGuyUS They paid me out for Tyus Jones DD. Anyone should contact their state's gaming commission if they are paying out some customers and not others for the same bet/outcome. (And yes I'm very limited on PB lol)

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

7 months

@TheBoostDoctor @ValueBeaver

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

2 years

My site caught a FD mistake line of Braves +1.5 +158 that was only in West Virginia (it is -1.5 +158 in other FanDuel states). Some arbed for over $2,000 profit. It was up for over 3 hours! Get into my free discord to get pinged on plays like this!

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

6 months

Cooked this up in ChatGPT. Capturing the essense of an era, as @PrizePicks and @UnderdogFantasy will soon bid farewell to NY

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

1 year

@najeesburner22 @PromoGuyUS @PointsBetUSA If the Tyus didn't get the DD and the bet lost, do you think they would have voided their bets? Once a game starts and a bet is not yet voided, a sportsbook should not be allowed to void a bet simply based on if it won or lost.

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

7 months

I think the next big bet-type for sportsbooks to implement will be Flex Plays. Similar to Parlays but, like in my example screenshot/design, I would only need to hit 2 out of my 3 legs to win my bet at +224 odds. @DKSportsbook @FDSportsbook

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

6 months

@Wanca24_ I think there may be a few things gong wrong here: high variance parlays, not kelly sizing, improper EV devigs, small sample size, maybe more. Twitter doesn't make it easy to type a lot but if you'd like some feedback you can join the free CNM Discord:

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

9 months

@PlusBoosts @panthers3698 @10inchtomfn @MasterBaterNY @veganevbets @degenbuttdoc @SlightlyPlusEV @IWONTHEMONEY7 @ValueBetsPA @PlusEVIowa @DarylFlanagan @ThePromoguy123 @AlexMonahan100 @OddsJam @PlusBoosts I had people betting Fliff back in the Fall, long before you guys made it public or blasted it in CNM discord. People message me about edges and mistake lines all the time, and I always tell them to keep high +EV consistent edges a secret. Loose lips sink ships.

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

11 months

@EVbetsIN To find good legs for tacos/promos, you can set the sportsbook to PrizePicks and the EV% to -100% to show -ev PP legs that are good with the tacos/promos. And you can click the event's link for a row to see the odds for that leg on other books to see why CNO sees it as good.

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

11 days

A lot of player prop arbs for @sporttrade_app on CNO. +EV page showing Sporttrade is the one that is off to the rest of the market on the majority of them.

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

2 years

I made a DraftKings Up By X Promo Simulator that you can test a play's value based on historical data.

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

2 years

I created CNM Discord to make it much easier to manage updates on my progress. The #announcements channel has my most recent update. The CNM Discord:

Join the CrazyNinjaOdds Discord Server!

The official CrazyNinjaOdds Discord Server, a community of over 4,000 like-minded +EV bettors. | 4843 members

discord.com

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

1 year

@TheeDegenBoosts You can do all of that in the devigger by using the Flex Final Odds format. In the 50/50 -110 odds example you showed, here is how it would look on a 70% free bet conversion rate. See here for more info on Flex Final Odds format:

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

2 years

@BeatTheOddsBets @EVbetsIN My site will be free for at least the first month while I build it up and add valuable features. And it will be close to OddsBoom's prices when I do transition to subscriptions.

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

11 months

@DKSportsbook Link for it:

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

2 months

@EVBetsMA @TheeDegenBoosts @ValueBetsPA @BostonBoosts @EVbetsKS @10inchtomfn @PromoGuyUS @ThePromoguy123 @EVbetsIN If you have the data with: Odds, FV, Result, then I can run a monte carlo for you to show you if it's within the realm of possibility and if it is, what percentile you are in. It's actually expected for 1% of bettors to be in the bottom 1% percentile for a run of bets.

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

2 years

@BoostRater I got 4.8% +EV earlier, -110 fair. Using the FD alt lines, and also supplying the normal over/under line, and estimating a high juice% of 10% for the alts.

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

6 days

@BrandonBets__ Anyone they did this to needs to report this to their state's gaming commission. This should be met with a huge fine at a minimum. List of links for each state's gaming commission:

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

2 months

@sporttrade_app is becoming a must have if you're in NJ/CO now that they have player props. Very impressed with their vision and execution. Play found on my free site's +EV page . (Uncheck "Mainlines Only" to enable Player Props). Play down to +120 now.

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

1 year

@EVirginiaBet It worked! Lol. And thank you for the generous donation ❤️😊. All donations will be applied as CNO credit when I set up CNO subscriptions.

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

7 months

@PromoGuyUS lol I had the same problem. Necessity is the mother of invention. Love you Sam💚

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

1 year

@thecandyman122 @ValueBetsPA Your formula is close but "b" should not be decimal odds but the proportion of the bet gained with a win. This should essentially be Decimal Odds minus 1. Correct formula would be: f* = p - ((1-p)/b) = .339 - ((1-.339) / 2.5) = .0746, which can be verified in a kelly calculator.

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

1 month

@FDSportsbook @br_betting

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

1 year

@MilkCashes @PromoGuyUS @PointsBetUSA Actually, I can't withdrawal. Even my $17 win wow

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

7 months

@NFL is incorrectly listing Maxx Crosby ( #98 ) as having 3 Tackles + Assists, when he actually had 4, as seen by this video evidence: This needs to be corrected so that the sportsbooks can correctly grade the bets.

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

2 years

@PlusBoosts @BoostRater Awesome. Definitely +EV at least, then. You're welcome! And I appreciated your feedback yesterday on the new correlation feature. You are very right that a SGP's extra juice (compared to a normal parlay) can lead to the calculated correlation to be slightly off.

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

27 days

@joebrennanjr @ProBonoRapLines @primesportsbook @OddsJam @UnabatedSports @AdamBjorn2 Thanks Joe. Feel free to e-mail me when you're ready to get added. I'm a vendor in NJ.

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

4 months

@Kyle__Rowe @EVirginiaBet Depends on the time of day. Around 1 minute during day time and 2-3 minutes at night. Good enough for pre-game +EV and arbs. I recommend you try it out to see.

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

11 months

@EVBetsMA @TheBoostDoctor @PlusBoosts @EVirginiaBet @TheeDegenBoosts Updated the Combo Breaker to save time for this type of devig. You can now specify "Exactly" markets like so:

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

2 years

@WorldofIsaac @roiguy123 You're welcome sausage king!

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

1 year

@DodgeballFran @ThePromoguy123 By that he means: 1. Highest EV = max with no hedge 2. Next Highest EV = max with partial hedge to reduce exposure 3. Lower EV = Only a certain % of your max with no hedge to reduce exposure Option #1 is best if you can handle the variance. Otherwise, #2 is better than #3 .

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

11 months

@BeMoreEV @Chap9413 @EVbetsKS Yep. This is my data from last year for FD Player Strikeouts. I was down -1.4% (lost $221.79). However, if I had simply wagered the same amount every bet, I would have been up 6.9%. So, it's too small of a sample size (425 bets). I'd still just agree with the market average.

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

2 years

@Dexter11291 @Ben04456355 @OddsJam Me too. Was super slow before this with errors. And not just slow for me, slow when testing the speed from another server.

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

5 years

@Magnum10K @8NEWS Good idea! Or they should do like a picture in picture with jeopardy as the big picture and the weather in the corner somewhere.

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

7 months

@aaronne10758727 @TheBoostDoctor @ValueBeaver CNM Discord (free):

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

2 years

@EVirginiaBet Good devig/analysis! And look at what the Combo Breaker shows for fair value from 14+ to 15+. Huge leap in odds. FD chose 15+ because of this lol Also, you can manually add in the normal over/under lines so the Combo Breaker has a little more data.

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

11 days

@Matthew_Trench @sporttrade_app I'm currently logging all historical data, including snapshots of odds changes, fair value, etc. I have it on my to-do list to eventually make it easy to see how well certain books perform for certain markets.

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

1 year

@BetBetterBruh A little after my CNO player props update, CNO will have PrizePicks. I am not sure if there is another free way, until then.

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

4 months

@EVirginiaBet @Kyle__Rowe Yep! is free. Can disable "Mainlines Only" in settings for player props and alts.

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

27 days

@ProBonoRapLines @joebrennanjr @primesportsbook @OddsJam @UnabatedSports @AdamBjorn2 I'd be happy to add @primesportsbook to my site. All I need is API access. is a free odds comparison site that has tools for arbing, +EV and hedging promos. It sees a lot of traffic and is still growing:

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

11 months

@PlusEVPenguin Here it is vs FD's won lines:

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

10 months

@ValueBetsPA @PlusEVPenguin Yep! The Devigger's Flex Final Odds format can do that. See here for the help page on it:

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

4 years

@AgeOfEmpires Thanks @AgeOfEmpires . Great job on the remaster!

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

2 years

@SaltyWalty11 @EVbetsIN I just updated the Up By X Promo Simulator to allow for you to apply Kelly. It will assume you want to bet the full amount on DK, but will tell you how much to ride naked based on your Kelly settings (and how much to hedge on another book for the rest)

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

1 year

@MilkCashes @PromoGuyUS @PointsBetUSA I believe I can still withdrawal. I am just limited to peanuts and can't do promos or earn free bets.

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

11 months

@EVcapperguy15 @EVbetsIN Here is the game's market page for Tony Gonsolin Over 4.5 Pitching Strikeouts, for example. It's good to pair with a taco because it's -135/+105 on DK and -167/+113 on CZR

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

10 months

@TheBoostDoctor You can use the devigger API here: Google Sheets implementation near the bottom of the page. And an example: API URL: Devigger URL:

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

1 month

@ESPNBettor The play was posted on March 18th at 1:09am ET in the discord. It was nerfed that same day to +5000

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

1 year

@SportsBettingEV @IWONTHEMONEY7 @TheeDegenBoosts @jdsuther @DarylFlanagan You can use Combo Breaker, but it is very important to calibrate for their normal lines first. Someone devigged it in my discord: Invite link if you need one: When combo breaking, be sure to include their normal lines, too.

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

3 years

@Neo10116 @sokkyc2kes Now there are 4 of us.

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

1 month

@RockCherfs @OxJuiced I think he used the C-C-C-Combo Breaker. It can be found here: Feel free to post in the discord if you need help. It's a little conservative since it doesn't estimate past the top line that you provide, yet. But if providing a decent range, it works well.

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

5 years

@8NEWS My area isn't even getting any storms tonight. Should have offered us an online link to watch it with commercials

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

4 months

Best place to ask questions or learn more is in the CrazyNinjaOdds Discord

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

1 month

@stathead9013 That would make sense. FD offers overs on their alts without unders. So, if a lot of NBA players hit their alt overs, a lot of SGPs and bets were likely hitting. FD probably did have a bad night due to so many overs hitting. That's the risk FD takes with not offering alt unders.

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

1 year

@SportsBettingEV Sure. I calculated it with screenshots in my discord (it was -EV) If you need an invite link:

Join the CrazyNinjaOdds Discord Server!

The official CrazyNinjaOdds Discord Server, a community of over 4,000 like-minded +EV bettors. | 4843 members

discord.com

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

3 years

@unbinder @SpaceRockRadio @Neo10116 @sokkyc2kes

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

1 year

@BetBetterBruh @PromoGuyMI I'll be releasing an update tomorrow that will help us see the value in these types of plays better. It will show the hedge value, if you hedged all possible outcomes, which in this case was negative.

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

6 months

@PlusEVMD @xcollegedrop You can always check which books CNO is including in a market average by clicking on a row's event (blue link).

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

8 months

@mryan617 @DKSportsbook I see I answered that for you in the discord (here: ) Good to see you in there.

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

9 months

@2legEVParlays It popped up on CNO. Insane value.

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

1 year

@PlusBoosts @EV_Architect SuperBook might be leaning their moneyline too much to the Panthers, which might make it look better than the rest. With their moneyline devigged to around 43.5% to hit/win. Which is higher than DK, Pinny and FD (Pinn = 41.6%, FD=42.9%, DK=40.7%)

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

11 months

@EVcapperguy15 @EVbetsIN Just set this page to these settings for -ev legs by themselves but +EV when used with tacos/promos. You can click the row's event's link to go straight to that game's market's line to see the odds on other books, to see why it is good on CNO.

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

7 months

@AlbertTheMan43 @DKSportsbook @FDSportsbook Yea, HardRock is doing it wrong imo. They should do it similar to a parlay. In that, they would not add extra juice. There would be no reason if they are all uncorrelated. And a simple formula for "Any X out of N" can calculate the odds for it. (+224 would be proper for these 3)

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

5 months

@Wanca24_ The monte carlo sim implies that the FV was not correctly calculated. This would lead to wrong EV%, wrong kelly wagering and lead to horrible results/ROI.

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

11 days

@sporttrade_app

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

1 year

@EV_Architect Market average between DK's and FD's SGP 6-way devigs shows -0.6% -ev worst-case. And Pinny's moneyline is pretty much in the middle of both DK and FD (Pinn = 41.6%, FD=42.9%, DK=40.7%). So market average of the 2 is probably somewhat accurate.

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

1 month

@br_betting @ESPNBet

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

1 month

@BYabacushy @FDSportsbook @br_betting It's my free +EV discord, CNO. Note that the SGP Elias played was +EV. He used the Devigger to determine it was a good bet. The discord doesn't focus on super longshot parlays. If you're looking for a discord that focuses on that, don't join. Invite link:

Join the CrazyNinjaOdds Discord Server!

The official CrazyNinjaOdds Discord Server, a community of over 4,000 like-minded +EV bettors. | 4843 members

discord.com

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

3 years

My game is now 40% off ($5.99) during Steam's Autumn Sale! 🦃 Sale ends December 1st, 1pm EST #gaming_news via @steam

Herakles and the Princess of Troy on Steam

A brutal platform game with an advanced speedrun system. Explore a story from Greek mythology as you rally an army to defy a tyrant. Hack and slash your way up the leaderboards and claim a world...

store.steampowered.com

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

4 months

@rgibbbbb Hey @rgibbbbb ! I don't currently have Betway on CNO but will be adding it in the future.

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

11 months

@PlusEVPenguin Maybe if you had historical data on their first pitches of every game they ever pitched in. But if it's -ev to FD's own lines, I probably wouldn't waste too much time on it getting that data. If it became a common boost, it might be worth the time, though.

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

8 days

@KirbyGuy123 @Vulture1999 When I last checked, it was too juiced and not worth it.

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

4 years

@Kent2D This is exactly how most fans wanted Reforged to be. You kept the original style. Same eyes, shape, colors, everything. Except it's 100x better with more polygons now haha. I wish Blizzard had done it like you did. Great job Kent!

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

11 months

@BeMoreEV @Chap9413 @EVbetsKS Here's the fixed bet size results (6.9% ROI)

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

1 year

@thecandyman122 @ValueBetsPA Additional info and help on the kelly formula:

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

1 year

@IWONTHEMONEY7 @TheeDegenBoosts @jdsuther @DarylFlanagan I'll be releasing an update tomorrow that will help us see the value in these types of plays better. It will show the hedge value, if you hedged all possible outcomes, which in this boost was negative.

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

5 years

@8NEWS Where's jeopardy? My area isn't even getting any storms tonight...

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

4 years

@Paul_Hadfield @fitbit Me too! Fitbits get great reviews on Amazon when they first come out. Then after 1-2 years, the adhesive is undone and people report the problems. By then Fitbit is onto the next generation of their smartwatch and they no longer care.

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

2 years

@SlahtReceivah @freedommsngr If you are profitable, everyone will get limited at some point. I never hit a mistake line on FD and only did +EV and I still got limited to 10% of a normal person's max wager. Take it while you can get it. (10% limited on FD is still not too bad, though)

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

4 months

@thekuccimane Yea. You're right. I recommend new users stick to mainlines and hedge promos. Can get VIP on a few books doing that. I talk about it here in my Phase1/Phase2 approach:

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

4 months

@Kyle__Rowe @EVirginiaBet You're welcome! If you have any questions, you can ask in the #general channel in my free discord, a community of over 3,700 like-minded +EV bettors

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

1 month

@pushingparlayzz He just has discord. He posted his video here:

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

1 year

@LWilz @packdrip @PromoGuyUS @PointsBetUSA @darrenrovell You should contact the gaming commission in your state. That should be an easy case to win. See here for where to contact based on your state: And a short guide on filing a complaint:

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

2 years

@sirmatthogan @OddsJam Same error message and slowness for me.

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

3 years

@amheide_84 @BetMGM Me too! Same game and also a one game parlay.

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

5 months

@Wanca24_ Twitter Update: Ran a quick monte carlo sim that shows that it was statistically impossible for @Wanca24_ to have a -43% ROI, given his expected EV%, odds, implied probability, average wager amount and number of wagers. The code and results:

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

1 year

@TheeDegenBoosts @tom08068057 More specifically: || is used when both legs can hit (like any one of 2 players to get 20+ points) (independent events) . It replaces a "," ^^ is used when only one of the legs can hit (like a nascar race winner) (mutually exclusive events). It replaces a ","

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

1 month

@Christophe17521 This was a +EV SGP that he used a free bet on.

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

2 years

@JonathanPapz @PromoGuyMI There are example images and an example already filled out. There are also instructions at the bottom of the page. If you need more help, feel free to message me.

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CrazyNinjaMike

@CrazyNinjaMike1

3 years

@YTNRell @BetMGM I'm getting the same error as you. Looks like a lot of people now are. I'm in VA.