2023 recap! 🎉
Hint: +EV betting works
From my publicly tracked plays on this account from twitter and discord is +$28,800 for the year (+199u following my unit recommendations) with ~+20% ROI
All bets are here:
I plan to keep 2024 profitable! 💰
Personal note: I get married today and will be out of the country for about 2 weeks. I’ll see you fine people when I get back. Win some money while I’m gone. I will leave you all with this absolute lock for today to squad ride for
#GamblingTwitter
! I’m in for $100 🤝
Bet: Boost - 🐯 3 birdies today
Book: FD
At odds:100, fair odds: -150
Expected ROI of 20%
Optimal bet size (unit) is: 20.0u, but I recommend:6.7u
I am betting $20
Bet: Megamillions
Book: The government? Idk
At odds: 500ish million to 1, fair odds: 1 in 302 million
Expected ROI of 20% after taxes
Optimal bet size (unit) is: .00000001u +/-
I am betting $6
Be sure to download the new ESPN bet! Just went live a few minutes ago. Old users with barstool get 4x$50 free bets after placing your first bet of any size!
(Appears to be exactly what barstool was just green)
Sorry I wasn’t able to get to the FD man city boost in time, I was busy taking care of this little guy we got a few days ago! Looks like a lot of good boosts/promos tonight I’ll get to in a bit
Bet: Boost - Curry/donte 9+ 3s
Book: FD
At odds:100, fair odds: -125
Expected ROI of 11%
Optimal bet size (unit) is: 11.0u, but I recommend:3.7u
I am betting $20
Bet: Boost - Garrett & davante 40+
Book: FD
At odds:130, fair odds: -102
Expected ROI of 16%
Optimal bet size (unit) is: 12.3u, but I recommend:4.1u
I am betting $20
Be sure to download the new ESPN bet! Just went live a few minutes ago. Old users with barstool get 4x$50 free bets after placing your first bet of any size!
(Appears to be exactly what barstool was just green)
Bet: Boost - Brunson/Mitchell 25
Book: FD
At odds:200, fair odds: 134
Expected ROI of 28%
Optimal bet size (unit) is: 14.0u, but I recommend:4.7u
I am betting $20
FanDuel feeling generous today after cleaning up yesterday looks like
Fred is who I would recommend at current price for the DK Threesday promo
If you have the $10/25 version play at all bankrolls. If you have the $50 version play at $20u and up
Recommended Strus +475 in discord about an hour ago but his odds tanked, hopefully both hit!
I’m a big fantasy 🏈 guy and I wanted to take a look and how sports books are projecting each guy to finish relative to where they are being drafted to try and find value (and avoid overvalued) guys across the league. These are my Top 10 Value/overvalued guys in ppr/non-ppr/.5
I did a lot of research last March into these markets and believe both of these bets to be EV (and “due” because it didn’t happen last year lol)
Added benefit being the most fun bet to cash ever. Would recommend 1/2u on each
Not available in some states
Bet: Boost - Kawhi/butler 20 & SDSU
Book: FD
At odds:300, fair odds: 254
Expected ROI of 13%
Optimal bet size (unit) is: 4.3u, but I recommend:1.4u
I am betting $50
Bet: Boost - Giannis & AD 25+
Book: FD
At odds:200, fair odds: 156
Expected ROI of 17%
Optimal bet size (unit) is: 8.5u, but I recommend:2.8u
I am betting $20
Bet: Boost - Freddie + Mookie hit
Book: FD
At odds:120, fair odds: 110
Expected ROI of 5%
Optimal bet size (unit) is: 4.2u, but I recommend:1.4u
I am betting $20
Bet: Boost - Brunson/fox 25
Book: FD
At odds:200, fair odds: 170
Expected ROI of 11%
Optimal bet size (unit) is: 5.5u, but I recommend:1.8u
I am betting $20
I’m not one for bragging much. But that is 3 straight days cashing a +950+ parlay based solely on model plays. Who the fuck else is cashing these!!! 🔥 let’s see those tickets😍
Bet: Boost - Iowa & USC -9.5
Book: FD
At odds:200, fair odds: 170
Expected ROI of 11%
Optimal bet size (unit) is: 5.5u, but I recommend:1.8u
I am betting $20
Bet: Boost - Saquon & Mclaurin 60+
Book: FD
At odds:300, fair odds: 228
Expected ROI of 22%
Optimal bet size (unit) is: 7.3u, but I recommend:2.4u
I am betting $50
DK Threesday pick
I took Chet +450 earlier but this is pretty solid value. If he moves much Chet works as well at 350
Play at all bankrolls with $25 version, only play $50 version if you have >=$20u
Bet: Boost - Dame + 🤡 3 3s
Book: FD
At odds:170, fair odds: 133
Expected ROI of 16%
Optimal bet size (unit) is: 9.4u, but I recommend:3.1u
I am betting $20
Bet: Boost - Rahm or JT or Rory R1 eagle
Book: FD
At odds:260, fair odds: 230
Expected ROI of 9%
Optimal bet size (unit) is: 3.5u, but I recommend:1.2u
I am betting $50
Bet: Boost - Seager & Altuve hit
Book: FD
At odds:150, fair odds: 116
Expected ROI of 16%
Optimal bet size (unit) is: 10.7u, but I recommend:3.6u
I am betting $20
Not playing the other boost (Kittle/aiyuk)
If you have up 2 promo on DK today - I’d recommend up to 3u on royals +150. Make sure to opt in and apply in slip
I don’t have this promo but go royals!
Bet: Boost - Steph 5 3s + PG 20+
Book: FD
At odds:150, fair odds: 121
Expected ROI of 13%
Optimal bet size (unit) is: 8.7u, but I recommend:2.9u
I am betting $20
Bet: Boost - SC + iowa
Book: FD
At odds:120, fair odds: -106
Expected ROI of 13%
Optimal bet size (unit) is: 10.8u, but I recommend:3.6u
I am betting $20
Bet: Boost - UConn -5.5 + o153.5
Book: FD
At odds:130, fair odds: 115
Expected ROI of 7%
Optimal bet size (unit) is: 5.4u, but I recommend:1.8u
I am betting $20
Bet: Boost - Elly/Seager/arraez hit
Book: FD
At odds:220, fair odds: 162
Expected ROI of 22%
Optimal bet size (unit) is: 10.0u, but I recommend:3.3u
I am betting $25
Bet: Boost - Dook + Purdue -10.5
Book: FD
At odds:150, fair odds: 102
Expected ROI of 24%
Optimal bet size (unit) is: 16.0u, but I recommend:5.3u
I am betting $20
Very strong, bet responsibly
Bet: Boost - Bron/ad/kawhi 20
Book: FD
At odds:200, fair odds: 154
Expected ROI of 18%
Optimal bet size (unit) is: 9.0u, but I recommend:3.0u
I am betting $20
Bet: Boost - Achane/Henry/Barkley 50 yards
Book: FD
At odds:150, fair odds: 125
Expected ROI of 11%
Optimal bet size (unit) is: 7.3u, but I recommend:2.4u
I am betting $20
Bet: Boost - Tatum/brown 25+
Book: FD
At odds:200, fair odds: 178
Expected ROI of 8%
Optimal bet size (unit) is: 4.0u, but I recommend:1.3u
I am betting $50
Bet: Boost - Cade/wemby 20
Book: FD
At odds:180, fair odds: 139
Expected ROI of 17%
Optimal bet size (unit) is: 9.4u, but I recommend:3.1u
I am betting $20
Bet: Boost - Mitchell/curry/Trae 3+ 3s
Book: FD
At odds:200, fair odds: 156
Expected ROI of 17%
Optimal bet size (unit) is: 8.5u, but I recommend:2.8u
I am betting $20
Bet: Boost - Bedard/Crosby 3 SOG
Book: FD
At odds:200, fair odds: 178
Expected ROI of 8%
Optimal bet size (unit) is: 4.0u, but I recommend:1.3u
I am betting $20
Will not be playing any
@FDSportsbook
“first pitch over X velocity” pretty much ever.
I think it’s an incredibly dumb market and no one even likes to root for that. Do better FanDuel
Bet: Boost - Man City & BTTS
Book: FD
At odds:300, fair odds: 248
Expected ROI of 15%
Optimal bet size (unit) is: 5.0u, but I recommend:1.7u
I am betting $50
Bet: Boost - Iowa & USC -9.5
Book: FD
At odds:200, fair odds: 170
Expected ROI of 11%
Optimal bet size (unit) is: 5.5u, but I recommend:1.8u
I am betting $20
Bet: Boost - Donk + Booker 55
Book: FD
At odds:100, fair odds: -153
Expected ROI of 21%
Optimal bet size (unit) is: 21.0u, but I recommend:7.0u
I am betting $20
Probably much better than this too…
Bet: Boost - Bama, OK st, Arizona
Book: FD
At odds:100, fair odds: -133
Expected ROI of 14%
Optimal bet size (unit) is: 14.0u, but I recommend:4.7u
I am betting $20
Played this on FanDuel for the nhl sgp boost today - good for 0.25u
Not playing anything related to nascar today on FD, both the boost and 25% outright boost are -ev
Bet: Boost - 🃏 25 + 🤡 3 3s
Book: FD
At odds:200, fair odds: 178
Expected ROI of 8%
Optimal bet size (unit) is: 4.0u, but I recommend:1.3u
I am betting $20
Bet: Boost - Seagar / Marte hit
Book: FD
At odds:150, fair odds: 102
Expected ROI of 24%
Optimal bet size (unit) is: 16.0u, but I recommend:5.3u
I am betting $20
Bet: Boost - Bron 20 + lakers
Book: FD
At odds:200, fair odds: 173
Expected ROI of 10%
Optimal bet size (unit) is: 5.0u, but I recommend:1.7u
I am betting $20
Bet: Boost - Andrews, Waller, la porta 25+
Book: FD
At odds:200, fair odds: 156
Expected ROI of 17%
Optimal bet size (unit) is: 8.5u, but I recommend:2.8u
I am betting $20
Bet: Boost - Brunson/Mitchell 25
Book: FD
At odds:200, fair odds: 134
Expected ROI of 28%
Optimal bet size (unit) is: 14.0u, but I recommend:4.7u
I am betting $20
FanDuel feeling generous today after cleaning up yesterday looks like
Happy March! Draftkings brought back the most electric bet of the season for March Madness . Shoutout to San Diego State for last years buzzer beater! Running it back again this year. 0.75u on anytime +100 and 0.25u on first round +300! 🚨
I did a lot of research last March into these markets and believe both of these bets to be EV (and “due” because it didn’t happen last year lol)
Added benefit being the most fun bet to cash ever. Would recommend 1/2u on each
Not available in some states
Bet: Boost - 🇬🇷/ 🃏 25+
Book: FD
At odds:150, fair odds: 107
Expected ROI of 21%
Optimal bet size (unit) is: 14.0u, but I recommend:4.7u
I am betting $20
Very strong boost today
Bet: Boost - Bron/giannis DD
Book: FD
At odds:200, fair odds: 168
Expected ROI of 12%
Optimal bet size (unit) is: 6.0u, but I recommend:2.0u
I am betting $50
Boost - Witt/moncada hit
Book: FD
At odds:150, fair odds: 131
Expected ROI of 8%
Optimal bet size (unit) is: 5.3u, but I recommend:1.8u
I am betting $20