Tom Shugart @tshugart3 Twitter profile

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Tom Shugart

1 month

Pleased to provide my perspective on the growth of China's maritime power and its implications in this @60Minutes story on the UN Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

60 Minutes

@60Minutes

1 month

The same technologies used in deep sea mining also have military applications. China could use surveys of the ocean floor to improve its ability to find U.S. submarines, says former submarine captain Thomas Shugart.

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

2 years

Don't want to sound alarmist, but IMO it's notable that at this time of US-China tension, 3 of China's largest/newest roll-on/roll-off civilian ferries appear to be off their normal routes and are in or have moved south toward the Taiwan Strait. All 3 are associated with the PLA.

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

4 years

Welp, today was my last day in uniform after a bit over 25 years.

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

6 months

This week saw the release of the 2023 China Military Power Report (CMPR). For those not familiar, this is DoD’s congressionally-mandated unclassified update on the Chinese military. It’s an annual feast of open source data. So, here are few thoughts (Part 1) on the report:

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

5 months

Reminder: this water-cannoning and driving off of Philippine fishing boats and law-enforcement vessels is happening 124 nautical miles from the Philippine coastline, well within its EEZ.

Jay Tarriela

@jaytaryela

5 months

STATEMENT OF THE NATIONAL TASK FORCE FOR THE WEST PHILIPPINE SEA 9 December 2023 Manila, Philippines The National Task Force West Philippine Sea (NTFWPS) vehemently condemns the illegal and aggressive actions carried out by the Chinese Coast Guard and Chinese Maritime Militia

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

2 years

If there really was a TB2 UCAV in the area: 1. It was probably the source of targeting data for the anti-ship missiles, not there as a “distraction”. 2. We may be seeing some REALLY dramatic UAV footage in the coming days, once it’s processed and released.

Rob Lee

@RALee85

2 years

A Russian source is saying the Moskva has sunk and that the explosion was from a Ukrainian Neptun missile strike. Apparently, Ukraine flew a TB2 UCAV to distract the ship while it was targeted by the Neptun. The ship rolled onto its side after the strike.

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

1 year

A nice holiday gift from @googleearth : remember the threatening (& sovereignty-infringing) exercises China held around Taiwan during Speaker Pelosi's visit? Well, looks like we got lucky & got imagery of part of those exercises - a Chinese ferry unloading military vehicles.

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

1 month

BREAKING: Congress passes comprehensive act to boost naval shipbuilding and naval munitions production, restore dormant U.S. commercial shipbuilding industry.

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

9 months

"China is a big country and other countries are small countries, and that's just a fact." - PRC Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi, 2010 I’ll say it again for the folks who live in the region: when people tell you who they are, you should believe them.

Jay L Batongbacal

@JayBatongbacal

9 months

Unconfirmed video of dangerous and hostile action yesterday by China Coast Guard against small, unarmed PH vessel manned by the PH Navy on its way to resupply its Ayungin (2nd Thomas) Shoal outpost. CN again violates the principle of self-restraint under the 2002 DOC.

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

3 months

Surprise, surprise: “Chinese-owned merchant ships are getting hefty discounts on their insurance when sailing through the Red Sea…”

Chinese Ships Get Insurance Edge Navigating Red Sea

By Alex Longley and Áine Quinn (Bloomberg) — Chinese-owned merchant ships are getting hefty discounts on their insurance when sailing through the Red Sea, another sign of how Houthi attacks in...

gcaptain.com

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

4 months

Oh hey, I guess COSCO, the big PRC state-owned shipping company, isn't worried about transiting the Red Sea. Wonder why they aren't too concerned about getting shot at by the (Iran-supported) Houthis? 🤔

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

4 years

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

2 years

Top Gun was awesome, of course. I’m ready now for Hunt for Red October: the Return of Ramius, wherein Marko Ramius’ son, Alexei, disillusioned with Putin’s war against Ukraine, attempts to defect to the U.S. with his Borei-class SSBN. Undersea hijinks ensue.

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

11 days

I can tell you with confidence that a fair number of them are sitting at U.S. Navy submarine reactor control panels. Lots of enlisted nukes are really smart folks who just didn’t care enough to get good grades or dropped out of college and signed up, then pegged the ASVAB. ⚛️

Austen Allred

@Austen

11 days

Much more interesting to me to think about how you could reliably find these people

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

6 years

Best submarine photo ever - USS OLYMPIA (my old ship) enjoying a swim call off Hawaii after owning RIMPAC (shot a Harpoon missile AND an ADCAP torpedo). Hooyah OLY!

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

2 years

👀 👀👀 Ferries on the move: 7 PLA-associated ferries have departed their normal Yellow Sea routes & appear to be headed south to Fujian Province opposite Taiwan. Seems pretty likely to me that these vessels are or will be taking part in a PLA exercise or operation, nature TBD.

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

6 months

Ok, moving on to Part 2 of my thoughts on the 2023 China Military Power Report (CMPR). We’ll jump straight into the PLA Rocket Force, which I think has some of the biggest news in this year’s report.

Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

6 months

This week saw the release of the 2023 China Military Power Report (CMPR). For those not familiar, this is DoD’s congressionally-mandated unclassified update on the Chinese military. It’s an annual feast of open source data. So, here are few thoughts (Part 1) on the report:

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

1 year

"China is a big country and other countries are small countries, and that's just a fact." - PRC Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi, 2010 When people tell you who they are, you should believe them.

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

2 years

Might be going out on a limb a bit on this one, but something I saw in imagery of China's ongoing construction at Cambodia's Ream naval base caught my eye today. Here is the entirety of the base, with the portion that is reportedly reserved for Chinese military use in red.

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

6 months

POTUS not mincing words here: "Any attack on the Filipino aircraft, vessels, or armed forces will invoke our Mutual Defense Treaty with the Philippines…"

South China Sea: Biden says US will defend the Philippines if China attacks

Biden's statement comes days after collisions between Filipino and Chinese ships in the South China Sea.

www.bbc.co.uk

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

2 years

The first of these ferries is the ZHONG HUA FU XING. Built in 2019, it's owned by the Bohai Ferry Group (as are all 3 ferries), which is organized as the 8th Transport Group of the PRC Maritime Militia. It was used to transport tanks in a 2021 exercise.

Video shows ship packed with Chinese tanks for future battlefield in Taiwan | Taiwan News | Oct....

www.taiwannews.com.tw

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

2 years

To be sure, these ferries alone cannot carry a large enough force to invade Taiwan itself, and the rest of China's ferries appear to be on their normal routes for now. But perhaps they could carry enough to assist in seizure of a smaller island. I guess we'll see...

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

2 years

Surprise, surprise...despite both Cambodian and Chinese denials, Western official have confirmed that China is building a naval base in Cambodia, with a groundbreaking ceremony to occur this week. 😐

China secretly building naval facility in Cambodia, Western officials say

The establishment of a Chinese naval base in Cambodia — only its second such overseas outpost and its first in the strategically significant Indo-Pacific region — is part of Beijing’s strategy to...

www.washingtonpost.com

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

2 years

@JECurtis_WA It’s actually not an unlawful order, shipmate, that’s the part these folks seem to be missing.

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

7 months

PLA-associated ferries on the move: as of recent AIS data, six Bo Hai Ferries have left their normal Yellow Sea operating routes and are now conducting undetermined, but likely non-commercial, operation off China's east coast.

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

2 years

So, what does this all mean? First, I think it's highly likely that these ferries ARE engaged in some sort of operation for the PLA, as they're way off their normal routes at the same time. It could be part of a long-planned exercise, or perhaps a reaction to recent events. 🤷‍♂️

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

2 years

Cool video. When’s the decommissioning?

WarshipCam

@WarshipCam

2 years

Future USS Beloit (LCS 29) Freedom-variant littoral combat ship being christened and launched in Marinette, Wisconsin - May 7, 2022 #ussbeloit #lcs29 * video posted on TikTok by patrickbusse19

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

2 years

@MarineTraffic AIS data shows that this ferry left the Bohai Gulf after a port visit to Tianjin (near where it loaded tanks in 2021) and is now transiting southbound toward the northern approaches to the Taiwan Strait. Its destination is Shantou, across the Strait from S Taiwan.

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

2 years

For perspective on disruption to maritime traffic that China's announced closure areas will cause, here's a depiction of them overlaid on the current @marinetraffic picture (w/ fishing boats filtered out). Traffic will be able to go around, but that's a lot to avoid for 3 days.

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

3 years

A dog cemetery. One of your listed "750 bases" is a dog cemetery.

Quincy Institute

@QuincyInst

3 years

"Continuing to maintain 750 bases overseas and building new ones in Australia is a frighteningly irresponsible policy that, most frighteningly, is escalating military tensions with China, making what should be an unthinkable war with the nuclear-armed competitor more likely."

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

2 years

Some folks may recall this article I wrote last year in @WarOnTheRocks on how the PRC could use civilian shipping—and especially roll-on/roll-off ferries & vehicle carriers—to augment traditional PLA Navy amphibious sealift capacity in a Taiwan invasion.

Mind the Gap: How China’s Civilian Shipping Could Enable a Taiwan Invasion - War on the Rocks

Recent months have seen much discussion of the “Davidson Window” — the idea, based on recent commentary by the then-commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific

warontherocks.com

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

7 months

UPDATE: three of the Bo Hai ferries: Bo Hai Cui Zhu, Heng Da, and Bao Zhu; are now at what appears to be an industrial wharf in Xiamen, across the Strait from Taiwan. My guess is they're doing on-load/off-load ops for a PLA operation/exercise of some sort.

Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

7 months

PLA-associated ferries on the move: as of recent AIS data, six Bo Hai Ferries have left their normal Yellow Sea operating routes and are now conducting undetermined, but likely non-commercial, operation off China's east coast.

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

5 months

UDPDATE: a few months back I provided this update on one of China's shipyard construction projects - the expansion of Hudong-Zhonghua Shipyard—a major supplier to the PLA Navy, building mostly frigates and amphibious assault ships.

Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

10 months

Ok folks, how about an update on one of China's ongoing major shipyard expansions? Great, don't mind if I do...😉

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

1 year

From personal experience, I can tell you that a Japanese diesel submarine is not the sort of boat you want to encounter in a back-alley knife-fight. Quiet as a tomb.

H I Sutton

@CovertShores

1 year

#Japan 's latest Taigei Class submarine, right, is an absolute unit (left: Oyashio Class, middle: Sōryū Class)

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

3 years

Some perspective for our European friends: by my count, the escort ships in this Chinese task force (1 cruiser, 2 destroyers and 1 frigate) have more full-size missile tubes than the entire German navy.

Chinese aircraft carrier and 5 ships pass Okinawa on way to Pacific

Japan monitors group with destroyer and aircraft, days after joint US exercise

asia.nikkei.com

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

1 year

Folks are about to find out all about China's 3rd navy - the "Maritime Safety Administration". For those who wondered why China built 10,000-ton, cruiser-size "maritime safety" ships, well, we're all about to find out.

China to inspect ships in Taiwan Strait, Taiwan says won't cooperate

Fujian maritime safety administration launched a three-day special joint patrol and inspection operation in central and northern parts of the Taiwan Strait that includes moves to board ships.

www.reuters.com

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

2 years

Happy 247th birthday to @USNavy , IMO the single organization most responsible for the largest increase in global prosperity in the history of humanity, lifting hundreds of millions of people out of grinding poverty. Without you, this connected world wouldn't exist.

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

2 years

ZHONG HUA FU XING appears to normally operate on a route between Dalian and Yantai (across the Yellow Sea), so this is a significant departure from its normal operating pattern.

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

3 months

This is all fun and games for now but it’s going to be a very bad day if/when Carney goes 37-1.

Ian Ellis

@ianellisjones

3 months

During the Army-Navy game in December, the USS Carney was featured with a 22-0 record shooting down Houthi missiles + drones. The Carney remains undefeated @ 37-0 after intercepting a ballistic missile heading toward it today.

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

26 days

Croatia built more commercial shipping than the United States in 2022. CROATIA.

Dr Phil Weir

@navalhistorian

2 months

Shipbuilding: The New Battleground in the US-China Trade War @RanaForoohar for @FT on China's dominance in the global shipbuilding industry (& potential data gathering from its ubiquitous Logink logistics management software), & possible US responses (£).

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

11 months

L: US Army recruiting: “Be all you can be.” R: Ukraine Defence Forces recruiting. 🤣

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

6 months

Deliberately operating hull-mounted active sonar in vicinity of divers in the water. For those who don’t know, that is super-not-cool and a big-time asshole move. It’s pointlessly and knowingly injuring (perhaps permanently) other sailors who are just trying to do their job.

Collin Koh 🇸🇬🇺🇦

@CollinSLKoh

6 months

As if close-in maneuvers, vessel ramming, lasing and water cannon aren't enough, now beaming active sonar when divers are in the vicinity is a new gray zone technique by PRC maritime forces.

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

2 years

Next up: BO HAI MA ZHU, another large Bohai Ferry vessel, built in 2015. It appears to have also departed its normal route between Dalian and Yantai, and is now down at Qingdao. Its specific location at Qingdao is not the normal ferry landing, it looks like a commercial port.

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

3 months

If someone says to you “they just don’t build cars like they used to,” the correct response is “yes, and thank goodness they don’t”. Holy cow, this video. 😲

2009 Chevy Malibu vs 1959 Bel Air Crash Test | Consumer Reports

Join CR at https://CR.org/joinviaYT see CR’s rigorous lab test scores — and to access our comprehensive ratings for items you use every day—become a member. ...

www.youtube.com

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

2 years

Because apparently this needs to be said again & again: an attack by a nation antagonistic to us (but with whom we're not at war) on a nation for whom we have no defense commitment, and over whom we have not extended our nuclear umbrella, is not a failure of nuclear deterrence.

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

10 months

Hey folks, if you’re looking for something to peruse today, how about some updated imagery showing construction of the Chinese PLA’s new base at Ream, Cambodia? (Yes, the one that Cambodia & China denied just last summer.) Let’s get to it!

Cambodia denies that China is building secret facility at Ream Naval Base

The facility would give China its first naval staging area in Southeast Asia after it opens this week.

www.rfa.org

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

2 years

The 3rd ferry of interest is BO HAI ZUAN ZHU, also operated by Bohai Ferry and built in 2015. It appears to have loaded in Tianjin & is now in the Strait, headed for Guangou—near Shantou on the southern end of the Strait. It also normally operates between Dalian and Yantai.

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

2 years

I've been seeing a fair bit of talk about how, in the event of a PRC invasion of Taiwan, logistics would be harder than what Russia is dealing with right now in Ukraine. A bit of perspective: here is Taiwan superimposed over Ukraine, with Taipei located approximately over Kiev.

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

3 years

This seems like it's going to matter, at some point:

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

10 months

Imagine GWOT going so badly that Erik Prince announces that he and Blackwater are marching on Washington, and get taken seriously about it.

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

3 years

In case you haven't seen it yet, this drone footage, showing last year's Iranian ballistic missile attack on the U.S. base at Al Asad in Iraq, is really quite something.

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

5 months

Surprise, surprise: "...openly available trade data makes it clear that the PRC is providing massive volumes of manufactured goods and technologies vital to Russia’s war effort."

China’s support for Russia has been hindering Ukraine’s counteroffensive

A deep dive into trade data reveals how materials imported from China are vital for Russia’s ability to sustain its continued stubborn efforts to hold onto Ukrainian territory.

www.atlanticcouncil.org

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

1 year

Someone really ought to remind Putin that if he dumps New START & the gloves come off, it’ll be possible to go from today’s 20 Trident tubes-and 100ish warheads-per US SSBN, back to all 24 tubes and 12 or more warheads per tube (pushing 300 total). Just sayin.

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

3 years

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

6 months

Whenever I hear someone say the PRC would be crazy to strike U.S. bases in Japan, I can’t help but think - sure, that might seem true to us, but they’ve been practicing doing it for years, and have put tremendous resources into building the force to do it.

First Strike: China's Missile Threat to U.S. Bases in Asia

Developing strong, pragmatic and principled national security and defense policies.

www.cnas.org

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

11 months

On this Memorial Day, remembering that during WWII 52 American submarines never came home; that U.S. submariners suffered a fatality rate of about 20%, more than 10X that of the U.S. Navy as a whole. Here is the crew of USS Snook (SS-279), lost with all hands in March 1945.

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

2 years

For all the hyperventilation about India's accidental missile launch, the actual result? "Be more careful pls" from Pakistan, "oops" from India. "It gives me great hope that the 2 nuclear weapon states dealt with the missile incident in a mature manner..."

India says it accidentally fired missile into Pakistan

India cited a "technical malfunction" during routine maintenance, after Pakistan summoned India's envoy to protest.

www.reuters.com

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

2 months

Now that the 2023 ship launch numbers are in (or at least my best guess of them), it's time for an update on the last 10 years worth of PLA Navy shipbuilding, and how it compares the production from the U.S. and allied navies.

Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

1 year

The tale of the tape here is that, over the last decade, the PLA Navy outbuilt the USN in aggregate tonnage by about 25%, just over 1M tonnes of warships vs about 800K tonnes for the USN.

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

2 years

Pakistan's Major Non-NATO Ally status needs to be removed like yesterday. What are we waiting for? They undermined us in Afghanistan for years and now this?

Daily Mail Online

@MailOnline

2 years

Imran Khan shamelessly offers to import two million tons of wheat AND buy gas from Russia

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

4 months

Bloomberg's estimate of the cost of a war over Taiwan: $10 trillion. You want to argue whether measures to deter war with China are counter-productive? Fine. You want to argue that we "can't afford them"? Wrong. What we can't afford is to fail to deter.

Xi, Biden and the $10 Trillion Cost of War Over Taiwan

Taiwan’s election highlights the potential for a conflict that would decimate the global economy.

www.bloomberg.com

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

6 months

As a rule I don’t comment on domestic partisan politics, but as a national security matter this would be a super-bad idea and would hazard said national security at a dicey time. Fire half our shipyard workers? Half of our NAVSEA engineers? Half of our intel analysts?

Vivek Ramaswamy

@VivekGRamaswamy

6 months

On Day 1, *instantly* fire 50% of federal bureaucrats. Here’s how: if your SSN ends in an odd number, you’re fired. That downsizes government by half. Absolutely *nothing* will break as a result. It doesn’t violate civil service rules because mass layoffs are exempt. SHUT IT…

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

1 year

THAT'S BECAUSE THE U.S. AIRCRAFT WERE IN INTERNATIONAL AIRSPACE. Why does this distinction seem so hard for the Chinese media and government to understand? (Methinks they understand just fine, of course...)

Li Jingjing 李菁菁

@Jingjing_Li

1 year

Interesting revelation from China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs today. ▪️ US sent aircraft to China to scout 657 times in 2022 ▪️ 64 times the aircraft scouted in South China Sea in Jan. ▪️ US's balloon trespassed the sky over China 10 times China didn't shoot them down.

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

6 months

Moving on to MRBMs - what I’d call “Japan Killers” (too long-range to use on Taiwan, too short-range to hit Guam) the numbers are even more dramatic: going from “500+” to a solid 1000. Yes, ONE THOUSAND missiles with enough range to hit anywhere in Japan (see the CSS-5 ring).

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

2 years

To drive home the ongoing inadequacy of our response to the Chinese naval/maritime challenge, here's an updated ship count/estimate of the PLA Navy vs. USN, using data from this week's FY 23 budget request as well as the most recent CRS Report on Chinese naval modernization. 🤦‍♂️

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

1 year

Stumbled onto an interesting (to me) development over at COSCO shipping, a PRC state-owned shipping company that works with the PLA, and routinely takes part in amphibious landing exercises.

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

3 years

For folks reading about French shock and surprise at cancellation of the Attack-class diesel submarine program, here's a taste of what those of us who follow this stuff have been reading for quite a while before things came to a head:

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

4 years

A few thoughts on tonnage: There's been wide discussion recently on the size of the Chinese Navy, largely driven by a recent DoD report's statement that the PLA Navy is now the "largest navy in the world" on the basis of its number of ships.

Opinion | Trump promised a 350-ship Navy. China actually built it.

Trump's boasts about a naval build-up are more talk than reality

www.washingtonpost.com

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

1 year

I don't know if Chinese MLRS are MORE accurate than HIMARS, but some of them definitely have longer ranges. In any case, we shouldn't fool ourselves that HIMARS is some miraculously good weapon system for which no one else has an equivalent; The PLA has LOTS of capable rockets.

彩云香江

@louischeung_hk

1 year

A variety of Chinese long-range rocket systems are displayed, both in accuracy and range are far better than the M142 HIMARS.

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

2 years

More than 100 ballistic missiles in the initial assault. Since Russia’s newer Iskanders are pretty accurate weapons, I’d say this is the first large-scale use of precision-strike BMs in a state-on-state conflict. I’m sure the PLA Rocket Force will watch closely. We should, too.

Amanda Macias

@amanda_m_macias

2 years

The Defense official says that the Russians launched more than 100 ballistic missiles. The targets are mostly Ukrainian military assets. Adds that there are no U.S. military aircraft operating in Ukrainian airspace.

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

1 year

🚨🚨🚨 BREAKING: spotted in satellite imagery of China's Lushun naval base, the PLA Navy appears to have developed a ship powered entirely by renewable energy. 😉

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

4 years

But now it's time to move on and let other, younger sailors take my place. I thank the nation and the submarine force for the chance to learn, and give, and experience so much. FIN

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

2 months

Hey folks, how about an update on China's progress building its new base at Ream, Cambodia? Just acquired some @planet imagery dtd 15 January - here's an overview of the current state of construction, compared to March 2020 before work began. Quite a lot of progress IMO.

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

1 year

Got some fresh imagery (11-29-2022) of China's under-construction (and long-denied) naval base at Ream, Cambodia. Looks like lots of progress in previous months (6-2022 provided for comparison): newly-cleared areas, new structures built or under construction, and some new piers.

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

2 years

Pleased to share my update on the state of China's dual-purpose civil-military roll-on/roll-off vessel fleets, including a deeper dive into just how much sealift capacity they could contribute to enable an invasion of Taiwan. Out today in @WarOnTheRocks !

Mind the Gap, Part 2: The Cross-Strait Potential of China's Civilian Shipping Has Grown - War on...

Editor's Note: This is the second in a series of articles on China's civilian roll-on/roll-off ferries and the role they could play in an invasion of

warontherocks.com

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

1 year

I hesitate to further the distribution of this @newsweek piece, but I just...can't let it percolate out there without addressing some of its misleading statements and misunderstandings concerning the U.S. submarine force and submarine operations.

Navy will spend $200 billion—equal to Ukraine's GDP—on subs it barely uses

A Newsweek investigation reveals the secret constraints that weaken the U.S. submarine fleet.

www.newsweek.com

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

2 years

One of the things I learned at @NavalWarCollege was a simple but powerful concept: with few exceptions, the loser decides when the war is over. When you start thinking with that truth in mind, a lot of things start to fall into place.

max seddon

@maxseddon

2 years

Vladimir Putin has lost interest in diplomatic efforts to end the war, according to three people briefed on conversations with the Russian president. Instead, he appears set on seizing as much Ukrainian territory as possible. New, with @HenryJFoy :

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

1 year

Update: fresh @googleearth imagery of China's Huludao nuclear submarine shipyard (from 12/26/2022) provides further evidence that construction of a new, larger class of nuclear submarines may be in progress or imminent.

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

2 years

Ok, here we go: a few thoughts on the 2021 China Military Power report, which was released today (finally!). I'll focus on updates that I thought were interesting/consequential - areas that were new or differed from last year's report.

DOD Releases 2021 Report on Military and Security Developments Involvi

The Defense Department announces the release of its annual report on “Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China.”

www.defense.gov

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

1 year

Saw this meme, felt the urge to adapt it. 😉

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

3 years

A few thoughts on @FareedZakaria sunny assessment of the US-China military balance, as expressed here and...

Fareed Zakaria

@FareedZakaria

3 years

Welcome to the new age of bloated Pentagon budgets, all to be justified by the great Chinese threat. My take:

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

2 years

Having taken a closer look at these awesome photos, a few thoughts on some of the details...

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

1 year

Let’s talk about airbase hardening and dispersal, shall we? Some of you may have seen a recent story about the USAF pulling some of its F-15 fighters out of Kadena AFB in Okinawa, to be replaced by rotational fighter deployments.

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

3 months

This is a close call indeed. If I’m not mistaken, this is the first time that a USN warship has ever had to use its last-ditch Phalanx close-in weapon system to defend itself from an inbound anti-ship cruise missile.

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

3 months

As a matter of personal policy I stay away from domestic politics, but this is an aviation thing. So, as a pilot and flight instructor I'll say that this is...pure, unvarnished idiocy, or alternatively just lying (if she doesn't believe it). 🙄

PatriotTakes 🇺🇸

@patriottakes

3 months

Candace Owens: “I would be terrified if I got onto a plane and I saw a woman flying the plane.”

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

2 years

I've been re-reading Red Storm Rising for the first time in decades as a bit of nostalgic comfort food. One thing I can recognize now, having gone through a Navy career and been a submarine CO myself in the years since I read it last...

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

2 years

Glad to see this chart of mine contribute to today's @wsj editorial, pointing out the stark trend lines of Chinese vs US naval power.

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

3 years

Everyone else: OMG, choke points and sea lines of communication are vitally important to our economic well-being, and disruption of them could cause major 2nd- and 3rd-order effects that we're only now beginning to think about. Navalists:

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

5 months

Weird, how can Philippine vessels "trespass" into waters IN THEIR OWN EEZ?

SCS Probing Initiative

@SCS_PI

5 months

The Philippine ship #MVBRP headed for Scarborough Shoal this mooring, and the CCG just stated that it had implemented law enforcement ops against 3 public vessels of the PH Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources that trespassed into waters adjacent to the Huangyang Dao.

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

2 years

In case you're wondering why China's expanding its navy at such scale, here's the answer—straight of the recent translation of their 2020 Science of Military Strategy. Hint: it's not about taking Taiwan, facing down regional neighbors, etc. Global interests, global naval power.

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

2 years

While ominous news, I was pleased to be able to help @NikkeiAsia identify the aircraft type simulated by the mock missile target in this image - the E-767 AWACS, an airborne early warning platform operated by only one country in the world: Japan.

Satellite photos suggest China training to attack Japan's aircraft

Exclusive: SDF's early warning system seen as target in case of Taiwan contingency

asia.nikkei.com

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

6 months

“"I've said for years that if each DF-26 launcher had just one reload, we could be facing 400+ missiles. Well, here we are…," Tom Shugart, a former US Navy submarine commander who's now an adjunct senior fellow at [ @CNASdc ], wrote Monday on X…”

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

1 year

Now that Balloongate has died down, a few thoughts on @CSIS ’s recent Taiwan wargaming report. There was a fair bit of discussion of this a few weeks ago, but it’s taken me some time to review the report and gather my thoughts, so here they are:

The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan | CSIS

CSIS wargamed a Chinese invasion of Taiwan 24 times and found that Taiwan would endure as a democratic and independent entity in most scenarios. However, the costs were enormous. Victory is not...

www.csis.org

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

1 year

3-ish years ago, I put up this thread on the growth of the Chinese PLA Navy, calculating the total tonnage of warships launched during a 5-year period & comparing it to the numbers for the USN & allied/partner navies. Looks to me like it's about time for an update.

Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

4 years

A few thoughts on tonnage: There's been wide discussion recently on the size of the Chinese Navy, largely driven by a recent DoD report's statement that the PLA Navy is now the "largest navy in the world" on the basis of its number of ships.

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

3 years

Being “stalked” by a Shang SSN is kinda like getting “stalked” by a guy on a Harley with straight pipes. 🤣

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

6 months

Big flick: the PRC, through the increasing military capability of the PLA, is taking more coercive action against its neighbors in the region (just ask the Philippines & Taiwan). While improving its ability to fight the U.S., it seems largely uninterested in talking anymore.

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

1 year

We recently saw the release of the USN's FY2024 30-year shipbuilding plan. Based on that report, plus @CRS4Congress 's most recent report on PLA Navy modernization, here is a chart of both navies' past and future (estimated) ship inventories over time. 😐

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

3 years

Well, might as well chime in on today's discussion of this article about the potential abandonment of Taiwan to the PRC. I'll stick mostly to where I disagree with specific military assessments which underpin some of the article's policy recommendations.

Washington Is Avoiding the Tough Questions on Taiwan and China

For a declining power, the best option to avoid war may be to cut back on its commitments.

www.foreignaffairs.com

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

2 years

Some fresh imagery (3/2022) from the new PLAN nuclear submarine shipyard at Huludao. It looks like they're just about done building the last big building (at bottom). This is a big facility - for comparison see the Electric Boat final assembly facility at Groton, CT, 2nd image.

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

2 years

I'd say find new experts. Most of the ones that I follow - defense analysts who pay attention to capabilities and reality on the ground, rather than divining intentions and applying IR theory - saw this coming. That said, perhaps it's now time for a bit of expert accountability:

Melissa Chan

@melissakchan

2 years

The prevailing belief from experts the last few weeks is that Putin wouldn't try something like this. Not a criticism of expertise but it's a reminder that rational people analyzing things do not take into account enough the possibility that some autocrats are crazy.

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

1 year

Ok, here we go: some thoughts on the 2022 DoD China Military Power report, which was released today (finally!). I'll focus on updates I thought were interesting/consequential - areas that are new or differed from last year's report.

China Military Power Report

The Department of Defense released its annual report on the Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China (PRC), known as the China Military Power Report (CMPR), on Oct....

www.defense.gov

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Tom Shugart

@tshugart3

1 year

What’s embarrassing is a national security professional who doesn’t appear to know the difference between conducting surveillance from international airspace and blatantly flying a surveillance aircraft (regardless of type) well into actual sovereign airspace and territory.

Derek J. Grossman

@DerekJGrossman

1 year

Let's put everything into perspective for a moment. The US routinely conducts spy plane missions against China. Beijing sends one spy balloon our way and everyone is in a tizzy. Kind of embarrassing.

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