Founder ✈︎ IEJ Media ⚡︎ I write about & try to make sense of what matters most ⚡︎ Puncturing false narratives of adversaries ⚡︎ ex
@goldmansachs
⚡︎ Newsletter ⇩
New map — Major military activity in the Indo-Pacific:
- 1/3 of US Navy Fleet in theater
- Balikatan underway, many major firsts
- Taiwan inauguration May 20 & potential Chinese response
- Increased PLA military activity around Taiwan, 120+ ships in SCS
What you need to know 🧵
“The security environment is the most dangerous I’ve seen in 40 years in uniform,” Adm. Aquilino warned last week.
“We haven’t faced a threat like this since WW2.”
A few more clips, quotes, & mic-dropping moments from his final public appearance as Commander, U.S. INDOPACOM 👇
"It's disturbing how ill-informed & naive the average American is on China."
@USNavy
Admiral publicly states
#China
is the "number one challenge" of the 21st century and represents the most dangerous trend in
#geopolitics
.
Eye-opening speech.
I cut the 60 mins down to 5 👇
🚨 Video: A Chinese warship came within 150 yards of hitting American destroyer USS Chung-Hoon.
Embarked journalists captured the moment on video & witnessed the near collision.
"The fact this was announced over the radio prior to doing it clearly indicated it was intentional."
🚨 Major military activity is underway in the Pacific.
Lines are being drawn…
🇺🇸🇹🇼🇯🇵🇰🇷🇵🇭🇦🇺🇹🇭🇻🇳🇵🇼🇫🇷
And challenged…
🇨🇳🇷🇺🇰🇵
Welcome to the Indo-Pacific Powder Keg.
Updated map, latest developments, & breaking news—with a big assist from
@IndoPac_Info
:
China is preparing for war.
Everyone should watch
@Jkylebass
' presentation at the
@HudsonInstitute
, where he connects the dots—between the military, policy, infrastructure, & markets—that point in one direction:
#China
is mobilizing for war with 🇺🇸
Key highlights & takeaways👇
While the world is focused elsewhere, major military activity is underway in the Western Pacific🚨
China sent an aircraft carrier & 10+ warships to the north, south, & east of Taiwan—launching large-scale exercises.
Operating nearby: two U.S. carrier strike groups.
NEW(S) MAP:
U.S. quietly deployed a 3rd carrier strike group (CSG) to the western Pacific 👀
Aircraft carrier USS THEODORE ROOSEVELT got underway Thursday to follow VINSON CSG + join REAGAN CSG in the region.
Everything you need to know 👇
Everyone is preparing for war:
- China war games amphibious assault on Taiwan
- Taiwan war games Chinese invasion
- U.S. + Allies host "Olympics of war games"
- China + Russia largest joint military exercises
- North Korea fires ballistic missiles
The Indo-Pacific Powder Keg 🔥
China carried out major naval exercises + encircled Taiwan last week:
- Largest-ever drills simulating a blockade
- 20+ warships deployed, a new single-day record
- Massive ADIZ violation, 160+ planes detected
- 3x Surface Action Groups participate
Everything you need to know👇
🚨China continues its barrage of balloons violating Taiwan’s territorial airspace.
The direct overflights—a significant escalation—could be considered a “first strike.”
What's happening & why it matters 🧵
🚨Major military activity continues in the Pacific.
Updated map & new developments:
- China: 2 new military exercises underway
- First time 2 Chinese aircraft carriers operate simultaneously
- Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group enters Pacific
- 18 Russian ships pass near Japan
Current situation:
- World awaits imminent Iranian response to Israeli strike on embassy in Syria; forces on max readiness
- Significant show of force against China as 🇦🇺🇯🇵🇵🇭🇺🇸 launch first naval drills
- Escalation risk remains high
A few things you may have missed last week🧵
Quite the deployment for USS Carney & Sailors 🇺🇸
Heading home after 5 months in the Red Sea & at a port visit in Palermo, Italy, then had to race back to the eastern Med for the defense of Israel—shooting down Iranian ballistic missiles. Also:
- First to engage Houthi missiles…
New Video: Chinese fighter jets came within 5 meters of a Canadian plane in aggressive, abnormal, + unusual intercept.
"They became very aggressive and to a degree we would deem it unsafe + unprofessional," Maj. Gen. Iain Huddleston said.
👀 The Indo-Pacific Powder Keg:
- Chinese ship cuts off a Philippines patrol boat, nearly causing a collision
- US HIMARS Rockets, Patriot Missiles, & SINKEX in the Philippines
- Chinese aircraft carrier back in South China Sea
- US nuclear subs to South Korea
- Enter: Singapore
China likely to demonstrate “force against Taiwan in the near term,” said the head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command.
We could be seeing that now. 10 things you may have missed (as always, from accounts to follow) 👇
@MarioNawfal
This is a really bad take.
If the U.S. is leaving the Gulf, it’s because the U.S. wants to leave the Gulf. Iran doesn’t force the U.S. Navy to do anything, and certainly doesn’t dictate terms.
An absurd claim based on edited footage from Iranian state media.
Nobody forces the U.S. Navy to do anything. Nobody dictates terms to the U.S. Navy.
Footage shows a helicopter landing on USS Philippine Sea. I’m no expert—but if a helicopter goes up, it must come down, no?
A ridiculous claim based on edited footage from Iranian state media.
New details from DOD on the Gaza maritime corridor emergency mission:
- Over 1,000 U.S. military personnel
- Weeks to plan & execute (~60 days)
- U.S. Army 7th Transportation Brigade (Expeditionary) from VA tasked
- "Maintains the ability to provide unique capabilities from…
"The Chinese believe whoever rules the word rules the world."
@USNavy
Rear Admiral Mike Studeman—in an eye-opening speech—exposes China's masterful facade:
"The Chinese are very good at engineering a veneer of responsibility regarding all of their actions."
60 mins in 5 👇
China launches major military exercises encircling Taiwan🚨
37 PLA aircraft violated Taiwan's air defense zone—the 5th most this year.
11+ warships—including a carrier strike group & surface action group(s)—underway east of the island.
Day 1 of unannounced, unscheduled drills:
🚨 A LOT going down in the Pacific right now.
The US & its allies—Japan, South Korea, Philippines, & Australia—and China & its allies—Russia & North Korea—are all actively operating in the South China Sea, Philippine Sea, & Sea of Japan.
Here’s everything you need to know 👇
🚨New details on Chinese naval exercises near Taiwan:
- 570 sorties flown from carrier-based aircraft (420 fighter jets & 150 helos)
- 10 warships operated with the carrier strike group, 5 more than initially reported—16 ships total
~ 700 nautical miles from Guam
Updated map:
Undefeated.
Never-before-seen footage of the legendary USS Carney engaging missiles + drones in the Red Sea.
22-0 is a reference to the 18 attack drones + 4 cruise missiles recently shot down.
Two more U.S. aircraft carriers underway in the Atlantic
⑴ USS HARRY S. TRUMAN began sea trials today after 12-month modernization, deploying mid-2024
⑵ USS GEORGE WASHINGTON left Sunday, preparing for a 2024 Pacific deployment
10 of America's 11 aircraft carriers are active
🚨 Chinese warships & aircraft carrier gather east of Taiwan for major naval exercises:
- 20 ships deployed nearby, a new daily record
- 2x Surface Action Groups likely to link up
- Massing forces at coastal military bases
- Never-before-seen flight paths
Live updates below.
“Once the Chinese government is forced to use force to resolve the Taiwan question, it will be a war for reunification, a just & legitimate war supported & participated in by the Chinese people…
A war to crush foreign interference.”
—PLA Lieutenant General He Lei
New from
@Noahpinion
—Asia is a tinderbox
“WW3 will actually begin if & when the U.S. & China go to war. Almost everyone thinks this would happen if & when China attacks Taiwan, but in fact there are several other flashpoints that are just as scary & which many people seem to be…
🚨BREAKING
Pentagon makes first public statement + provides details on USS Carney intercepting missiles fired from Yemen:
- No casualties
- Attack may be ongoing
- Operating in northern Red Sea earlier today
- Shot down 3 land attack cruise missiles AND several drones
-…
What we know about Iran’s unprecedented attack on Israel:
- Largest drone attack ever (~170 fired)
- First time that Iran attacked Israel directly
- 120 ballistic & 30 cruise missiles launched
- IDF intercepted 99%
New map with Iranian bases, projectile paths, & U.S. assets 🧵
🚨 U.S. DoD released declassified images + videos of coercive, reckless, + risky Chinese PLA operational behavior.
Over 180 incidents against U.S. aircraft have occurred since Fall 2021—more in the past two years than in the decade before.
Here are 15 cases with receipts ⬇️
A Dance of Deterrence
- U.S. naval fleet + forces massing near Israel
- IKE carrier strike group redirected to Middle East
- Uptick in attacks from Iranian-backed proxy groups
- Destroyer USS Carney intercepts missiles + drones fired from Yemen
New map, thread, + latest news:
China is war gaming an amphibious assault on Taiwan.
- Ongoing, unannounced major military exercises
- 16 warships encircled Taiwan, a single day record, & 100+ in July
- Northern & Southern Theater forces participate
- 250 sorties with fighter jets & bombers
Latest updates 👇
Middle East on knife-edge as Tehran is “calibrating plans for a major retaliatory strike against Israel to send a message—but not spark a regional war that compels Washington to respond.”
If the U.S. does respond, here’s a snapshot of naval assets nearby:
China continues to execute “belligerent, dangerous, & aggressive activity” in the South China Sea, Adm. Aquilino told Congress last week.
“Those are not based on legality. The 2016 tribunal ruled that the PRC has no legal claim—yet they continue to drive a perception &…
The calm before the storm…
Analysts anticipate significant Chinese military activity around Taiwan in April & May.
China launched at least 18x separate military drills in March, violated Taiwan’s air defense zone 139x, & dispatched 200+ warships around the island.
More shocking footage of China blasting a small Philippines boat with dual water cannons.
This video is for anyone who thinks using water cannons isn’t a big deal. Imagine that glass shattering in your face…
"We are in the midst of a strategic competition to shape the future of the international order."
Admiral Paparo, Commander of U.S. INDOPACOM, says China is the "only state with both the intent & the power to do so."
Eye-opening speech—I cut the 60 mins down to 5 👇
A lot of military activity in the Indo-Pacific:
- Chinese & Russian surface action groups underway east of Taiwan
- U.S. dual carrier operations & exercises with allies
- Unprecedented attack on Taiwan’s sovereignty
Japan: “The situation is extremely serious & unpredictable.”
DOD confirms it has directed energy capabilities that can be used to protect U.S. forces in the Middle East ⚡️
"We have a wide variety [of missile defense systems], which does include directed energy capabilities."
Weekend recap:
- Chinese ground troops gather west of Taiwan
- Civil-military ferries deviate to participate
- Land, sea, air, + amphibious operations
- Air power bolstered at coastal bases
- PLA Rocket Force live-fire drills
A lot happening + worth watching...
Flashpoint Philippines:
🔥Chinese Coast Guard ship collided with a smaller boat from the Philippines.
"The provocative, irresponsible, & illegal action imperiled the safety of the crew."
Let's call this what it is: An illegal blockade within PH’s EEZ.
NEW: 2023 CHINA MILITARY POWER REPORT
@DeptofDefense
offers insights into the People’s Liberation Army’s:
- Strategy
- Military activities
- Economic policies
- Current capabilities
- Future modernization goals
Key takeaways + quick summary:
Pentagon finally asked about Iranian "forward base" & spy ship M/V BEHSHAD that provides intel & targeting data to the Houthis👇
"I'm not aware of the U.S. targeting the Behshad. We are very well aware of the Behshad."
@Schizointel
@DefenseBulletin
@sentdefender
South China Sea situation
- China’s militarization, expansion & violence is destabilizing an entire region
- Ships harass, swarm, water cannon & laser neighbors
- PLA joint patrols & military drills
New map with
@GordianKnotRay
& SeaLight shining light on Chinese provocations🧵
As the dust settles, here’s what we know about Israel’s strike on Iran 🧵
- Launched drones & fired missiles from fighter aircraft outside of Iran
- Targeted a military base & radar site near Isfahan
- “Hit what they intended to strike”
- No U.S. involvement
New map & report:
OPERATION TRUE PROMISE
- Iranian attack on Israel “more extensive than initially expected” (Rubio)
- First drones will close in on Israel an hour earlier than expected ~ 6pm EST, 1am local
- U.S. official: Anywhere from 400 to 500 drones & missiles could launch (ABC)
- Iran says…
🚨Chinese satellite flew over Taiwan & violated its territorial airspace in an "abnormal" launch
A crazy story—& another example of Chinese gray zone operations. "All these kinds of tactics… remind people here in Taiwan that there is a danger of war."
Quick summary & thread👇
First map shows the Middle East conflict described by the Pentagon: contained in Gaza—no wider regional war.
The second shows what's played out as Iran + proxies drive a dangerous cycle of escalation, including a large attack today on U.S. forces.
More detailed thread tomorrow.
China moves surface action group(s) east of Taiwan:
• 2x guided-missile destroyers
• 2x intelligence collection ships
• 1x frigate
• 1x oiler
Last month, 3x SAGs + 11 ships operated in WestPac.
China has now sent warships to the north, south, + east of Taiwan.
Update on Chinese air operations near Taiwan:
Beginning 1 January & for 13 consecutive days leading up to the election in Taiwan—China sent 32 balloons over & around the island.
An additional 100+ military aircraft (including drones), 60+ warships, & 3 satellites were detected.
🚨Houthis conduct largest & most complex attack to date—sending 28 one-way attack drones toward U.S. & coalition ships.
All 28 drones were shot down with no injuries or damage. Thread with live updates:
Heightened Chinese military activity around Taiwan in January:
• 300+ aircraft & 135 warships detected
• Significant attack on Taiwan's sovereignty & airspace with daily violations
• Notice the flight paths cluster around major cities, air & naval bases & red beaches
Quick🧵
U.S. & Japan carried out a large-scale exercise today, including dual carrier operations east of Taiwan.
2 U.S. carrier strike groups participated, led by flagships USS CARL VINSON & USS THEODORE ROOSEVELT.
Strong show of force amid elevated Chinese & Russian military activity.
Rear Admiral and Commander of Office of Naval Intelligence, Mike Studeman, delivered a chilling address on the threat posed by China.
"It's mind blowing how big the problem is. It's very unsettling to see how much the US is not connecting the dots on the challenge."
🚨Heightened Chinese PLA military activity around Taiwan:
- 35 aircraft detected, 23 crossing ADIZ—the most this month
- 15 warships tracked—3rd highest total ever
- Shandong carrier strike group in Western Pacific
- Civil-military ferry deviates from normal route, moving south
Major military activity underway in the Pacific 🚨
There were so many 🇺🇸🇨🇳🇹🇼 headlines that
@IndoPac_Info
and I had to put them all on a map.
Breaking: The Indo-Pacific Powder Keg
China's military maneuvers & provocations dominated headlines in August:
- PLA encircles & sends record-breaking 200+ warships around Taiwan
- Fires water cannon at boats from Vietnam & the Philippines
- Largest China-Russia battle group to ever approach the U.S.
NEW MAP+NEWS👇
China launched "sudden & swift" large-scale military exercises around Taiwan this weekend.
"The PLA again surrounded the island from all directions. An omnidirectional encirclement."
New map + details emerging about the drills.
What you need to know—in less than a min 👇
Exceptional video from
@joyuwang
& WSJ team on how Taiwan plans to counter a Chinese invasion.
It includes a great animation & overview of the recent record-setting military activity around the island.
Here are the first 30 secs—but I highly recommend the entire 7 mins:
NEW: USS GEORGE WASHINGTON (CVN 73) deployment announced 🇺🇸
The aircraft carrier will deploy to U.S. Southern Command over the next few months—circumnavigating South America with port visits in Brazil, Chile, & Peru—en route to the Indo-Pacific.
Admiral Aquilino, Commander of
@USNavy
@INDOPACOM
, was asked a question on many people's minds...
"How are you able to continue to deter China if all of these assets need to go in into potentially to another Central Command conflict?"
His response is forthright + clear:
Analysts anticipate major military activity on the Korean Peninsula in March & officials warn of aggressive provocations from North Korea.
Key locations & thread tracking important developments:
"The China challenge could be the most nonpartisan issue that could unite the country in significant ways."
The Adm. makes a plea:
"Can we please lower the amount of internal bickering within the US and focus on the international challenges that actually affect every American?"
U.S. Navy moving significant firepower + military assets near Israel:
- IKE aircraft carrier + strike group directed to join the Ford CSG in the Eastern Med
- Bataan Amphibious Ready Group, with Marine Expeditionary Unit embarked, can be quickly deployed
New map + report ⬇️
The U.S. Navy has maintained a continuous big deck presence east of Taiwan since January, rotating carrier strike groups & ARGs.
Beijing ramped up military activity this month, launching air & naval exercises & sending warships around Taiwan—a trend likely to continue.
🚨Escalations continue from the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen:
- Today: Attacked + hijacked an Israeli-linked cargo ship, taking over two dozen hostages
- Fired missiles + one-way attack drones intercepted by U.S. destroyers
- Shot down a $30 million U.S. Reaper drone
In 3 weeks since the war began, the 🇺🇸 Navy moved 25-30% of its operational fleet into the theater.
MIGHTY IKE carrier strike group & BATAAN ARG will both transit the Suez Canal—in opposite directions—& soon arrive on station.
~30 ships. 20K+ Sailors + Marines. Major firepower.
U.S. + allies launched large-scale strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen—for the first time since Red Sea attacks started.
- 60 targets @ 16 locations
- 100+ precision-guided munitions
- 6 warships, 28 aircraft, 1 sub
- IKE carrier strike group strikes
Updated map + thread👇
🚨 Major show of force from the US & China before the G-7 Summit:
- Chinese Surface Action Group circles Japan.
- Two US Carrier Strike Groups operate in the Philippine Sea & port in Japan ahead of the meeting.
- Russian ships transit the East China Sea.
Latest map & update:
Japan’s MOD reported back-to-back days of Chinese Y-9 reconnaissance patrols nearby, days after a flotilla of frigates sailed past the Senkakus.
China operates near & in Japan’s territorial waters & contiguous zones—Tokyo calls the situation “extremely serious & unpredictable.”
The Philippines is “a really critical hot spot right now that could end up in a bad place.
The fact that they are now fire hosing & ramming Philippines ships... I’m concerned where it could go.
If a sailor or soldier or one of their members were killed, could invoke Article 5…
🚨 New video shows Philippine Coast Guard ship “impeded & encircled” by Chinese Coast Guard & Maritime Militia vessels
The “irresponsible & provocative behavior of the Chinese maritime forces have shown a disregard for COLREGS.” —
@jaytaryela
U.S. bomber fleet on full display over the last week:
- B-2 stealth bombers, Ex Spirit Vigilance, Whiteman Air Force Base, Missouri
- B-52 Stratofortresses, Ex Bayou Vigilance, Barksdale Air Force Base, Louisiana
- B-1B Lancers, Bomber Task Force 24-2, Morón Air Base, Spain
New video: The Philippines + U.S. conduct joint maritime + air patrols over the South China Sea (close to Taiwan).
@barnabychuck
“I am confident that this collaboration will contribute to a more secure & stable environment for our people,” Marcos said.
BIG NEWS: USS Mount Whitney (LCC 20) dispatched to the Eastern Mediterranean.
One of two Amphibious Command & Control ships in the Navy & flagship of U.S. 6th Fleet.
High-ranking brass onboard: 3-Star Admiral vs 1-Star on a carrier.
Key decision-makers being brought in...
Updated map tracking increased Chinese military activity around Taiwan🔥
January ended with a bang. Beijing dispatched 33 aircraft & 14 entered the air defense zone—the largest incursion in 3 months.
I'm always iterating to improve these & made a few changes based on feedback:
@OSINTNW
Iranian spy ship & forward base, M/V BEHSHAD, has been running dark on AIS for 48+ hours. BEHSHAD also disappeared in early February prior to retaliatory U.S strikes—& soon after was the target of a U.S. cyberattack.
John explains: “The Behshad’s departure from its normal areas…
Significant Update: Credit-
@MT_Anderson
According to information from naval watchdog
@MT_Anderson
, the Iranian spy ship, the Behshad, known for providing targeting information to the Houthis, dropped off AIS tracking roughly 48 hours ago. The ship has not been located using…
"The problem is so massive most people don't know how to have a framework for it. We need to have more conversations with the country to understand the problem."
The Adm. says it's a tougher problem than the US faced against the Soviet Union in the Cold War.
Let that sink in.
In contrast, China views the US differently.
"We are clearly the number one enemy. We are characterized as such. Most Chinese fully believe that in their minds."
Why?
"They think America is dangerous. They don't think democracies are efficient. They think they're ineffective."
🚨USS CARNEY shoots down drone swarm
The U.S. guided-missile destroyer successfully engaged 14 drones in the Red Sea: CENTCOM
Carney + crew remain undefeated at 36-0
China continues to execute “belligerent, dangerous, & aggressive activity” in the South China Sea, Adm. Aquilino told Congress last week.
“Those are not based on legality. The 2016 tribunal ruled that the PRC has no legal claim—yet they continue to drive a perception &…
This is the single most important video of the year.
"We're going to find that we could very well lose the peace. We worry about winning the war, prevailing, but we can also lose the peace in the meantime."
The entire speech is worth watching and full of fascinating insights.
New video shows first live-fire test of Taiwan’s brand-new “Land Sword” missiles 👀
3x missiles fired from the land-based, short-to-medium-range air-defense system “successfully hit the target”
What scares a retired Lt. General & Commander of Marine Cyber Force?
- China’s embedded “into as much of America’s critical infrastructure” as possible
- New, persistent approach to maintain access
- Significant operational capabilities
- Waiting for the opportune time
Quick 🧵
China says: it’s “strengthening maritime cooperation & safeguarding regional peace & stability” in a “professional manner & in accordance with international law.”
China does (the opposite):
What an amphibious assault looks like 👀
Australian and Filipino forces, backed by U.S. Marines, practiced retaking an island seized by hostile forces in a large military drill Friday on the northwestern Philippine coast facing the disputed South China Sea: AP