▫️ Distinguished 🇨🇳 economist Cao Yuanzheng:
"A number of economies such as 🇦🇷, 🇹🇷, 🇱🇧, 🇳🇵, 🇲🇲, 🇵🇰 and 🇵🇪 are now at risk of defaulting on their debts, and many of them have
#China
as their largest creditor. This has become the biggest external threat to the Chinese economy"
In a widely relayed piece within 🇨🇳, Yang Jiemian (杨洁勉), a senior Chinese think-tanker and brother of China’s former top diplomat Yang Jiechi (杨洁篪), provides his views on 🇺🇸 Exceptionalism and why the
#USA
views
#China
as a threat.
A SUMMARY 🧵
MUST READ for anyone interested in
#Macron
's trip to
#China
and how
#France
is currently being assessed by Chinese analysts.
🔹The author: Mu Yangzi (慕阳子) is an associate researcher at CICIR – a key 🇨🇳 think tank linked to China’s Ministry of State Security.
#MacronEnChine
One of the Global South's leading voices, 🇧🇷 Lula, is in
#China
.
Prof. Cheng Yawen argues that "🇨🇳 and develop. countries need to break the current core-periphery world order" and build a new international system free from Western interference.
THREAD
Important read by Peking Univ. scholar Lu Feng (路风) on the 🇺🇸-🇨🇳
#CHIP
War.
▫️ "Since the
#UnitedStates
has used its ‘nuclear weapon’ [i.e. tech] against China,
#China
should strike back and use its own ‘nuclear weapon’ [i.e. its market]."
A SUMMARY:
One of
#China
's top Russia experts discusses why Beijing should have distanced itself from Moscow over
#Ukraine
.
"
#Russia
does not have the capacity to shelter China from the wind and rain", he writes.
His views in 10 key points.
[THREAD]
The effect of the
#UkraineRussiaWar
on the EU's quest for
#StrategicAutonomy
according to CICIR analyst Zhang Jian.
🔹CICIR is one of
#China
's most influential think tanks with links to the 🇨🇳 Ministry of State Security.
EXCERPTS 🧵
How should
#China
respond to the growing political divide between China and the West?
▫️ Yang Ping (杨平) advocates building a new international system led by China and countries in the Global South rather than the West.
🧵🧵🧵
🪧 Ever wonder what
#China
's intellectual elites are reading?
Here are the top 4 books under the theme "global race for
#chips
" recommended by CICIR – one of China's most influential think tanks:
(Hint... Their top choice is from an 🇺🇸 author and is a best seller in the West)
This is how Scholz's visit to 🇨🇳 + COSCO deal is being interpreted in China:
"[COSCO's acquisition] underlines that German Chancellor Scholz is still relatively steady and pragmatic vis-à-vis developing relations with China." – Wu Huiping, Centre for 🇩🇪 Studies at Tongji Univ.
Tsinghua Prof. Yan Xuetong:
"De-globalisation driven by econ security is still confined to the high tech field and has not completely severed the economic and social ties between the superpowers, thus de-globalisation policies will not lead to the emergence of a new Cold War."
How to protect
#China
from
#Russia
-like sanctions?
This question continues to be debated by Chinese analysts.
▫️ Ye Yan's solution: Beijing should build an international alliance of businesses to circumvent and neutralise Western
#sanctions
A THREAD 🧵
Recommend this report by Fudan researchers Jian Junbo and Chen Tenghan entitled:
“Europe's Economic ‘Decoupling’ from China: Current Situation and Prospects”.
The following thread provides a selection of quotes.
1/10
Must-read piece by one of 🇨🇳's top IR scholars, Shi Yinhong (时殷弘), on
#China
's new approach to the
#BRI
and Beijing's "strategic priorities".
With a commentary by
@MoritzRudolf
.
What did Shi say?
[THREAD]
Quite the chart by
@pewresearch
.
▫️ 83% of US adults now have negative views of China
Additionally:
▫️ 44% have VERY unfavourable views (+4 points yoy)
▫️ Approx. 4/10 Americans describe China as an ENEMY of the US, rather than as a competitor or a partner (+13 points yoy)
In today's edition of Sinification, PKU economist Yao Yang discusses the 🇺🇸-🇨🇳
#Chip
War and China's Economy. A summary:
1⃣ If the US were to extend its chip ban too far, 🇨🇳 should retaliate and use the banning of rare earth exports as a potential weapon
Former 🇨🇳 ambassador to the US, Cui Tiankai (崔天凯):
"The US is engaging in the American 'two whatevers': whatever
#China
does must be opposed; and whatever China advocates the US must disapprove of."
"In 2024, the world will head towards more conflicts and confrontation, underpinned by the current [trend toward] deglobalisation"
Yan Xuetong, 🇨🇳's most famous IR scholar, provides his assessment of the major structural changes currently underway in the world.
What did he say?
“
#DeRisking
” is very much the buzzword at the moment within China’s EU and US watching circles.
How have Chinese scholars been assessing this new slogan and its implications for
#China
?
Their views in 5 key quotes.
THREAD 🧵
#Democracy
is another field in which Beijing is competing with the West.
#China
’s aim may not be to convince others to adopt its political system, but it appears intent on demonstrating that 🇨🇳 democracy is superior to what the West has to offer.
THREAD🧵
🔹Most read article on Chinese aggregator of scholarly articles Aisixiang (爱思想) over the past 30 days:
“Ten critical shifts in international politics in 2023 and their prospects” by CUHK scholar Zheng Yongnian (郑永年).
🧵 EXCERPTS
In today's edition of Sinification, SIIS analyst Liu Zongyi discusses 🇨🇳-🇮🇳 relations and
#India
's growing antagonism towards
#China
. A summary:
1⃣ 🇨🇳-🇮🇳 ties will be defined by confrontation and competition in the short, medium and possibly long term.
Top 🇨🇳 Russia expert, Zhao Huasheng (赵华胜), discusses why
#China
has preserved its strong ties with
#Russia
and not condemned Moscow in spite of the
#UkraineWar
.
THREAD 🧵
Blinken, Yellen, Kerry and Kissinger have all travelled to
#China
in recent weeks. How have their visits been assessed by some of 🇨🇳's top international relations experts? Where do they see US-China relations heading? Their views in 4 key quotes:
THREAD🧵
🇨🇳-🇷🇺 relations have almost always been marked by a certain amount of mutual distrust.
Feng and Wen's critique of Putinism is a useful reminder that both sympathisers and sceptics of 🇷🇺 most likely coexist within the confines of Zhongnanhai.
A SUMMARY 🧵
In today's edition of Sinification: a selection of five reactions by Chinese experts to the recent
#spyballoon
incident(s) and its impact on 🇺🇸-🇨🇳 relations.
A SUMMARY
"The Chinese people have always appreciated the strategic autonomy and independent diplomatic spirit demonstrated by France in the changing international landscape ... Today, we can also see this in President Macron." - Global Times editorial.
🇨🇳 official statements about
#Prigozhin
's recent mutiny say little about Beijing's true assessment of the situation in
#Russia
. More interesting have been the reactions by Chinese experts to these events.
THREAD🧵
"A growing number of people are taking a more rational view of
#Xinjiang
-related issues, and the number of people agreeing with
#China
's approach to governance in Xinjiang is gradually increasing."
Wang Yao (王垚) is a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
1/3
Long read by Li Chaomin (李超民) assessing the content and impact of the US Chip Act.
Li is the deputy director of the Institute of Public Policy and Governance at Shanghai University of Finance and Economics.
Below are some of his policy recommendations for
#China
🇨🇳:
1/10
"In 2024, the world will head towards more conflicts and confrontation, underpinned by the current [trend toward] deglobalisation"
Yan Xuetong, 🇨🇳's most famous IR scholar, provides his assessment of the major structural changes currently underway in the world.
What did he say?
Fudan Univ. researcher, Song Luzheng:
"Why is [the 🇫🇷 satirical magazine]
#CharlieHebdo
always stirring up religious and racial tensions?"
"Looking ahead, the clash between Western Christian civilisation and Islamic civilisation will be the central theme of global geopolitics"
3⃣ Deeply rooted ideas such as “American Exceptionalism,” “Manifest Destiny,” and “Anglo-Saxon Superiority” have misled Americans into a profoundly self-centred view of history that fails to account for the historical and cultural complexity of other global actors.
Lan Jianxue (蓝建学) on the souring of
#China
-
#India
relations.
🪧 Lan is the director of the department for Asia-Pacific Studies at the Beijing-based China Institute of International Studies (CIIS) – one of 🇨🇳's most influential think tanks.
THREAD 🧵
🔟 Meanwhile, culturally rich ideas from China such as “unity in diversity [和而不同]” and “harmonious coexistence [和合共生]” could lead to the reconciliation of seemingly opposed concepts, if only the U.S. were open to considering them.
6⃣ Washington’s belief in the inevitability of great power conflict and zero-sum games has led to the “paranoid” construction of "imaginary enemies” like China.
1⃣ Although the West will not admit it, China’s “whole-process people's democracy” is not only true democracy at play, but is also a more functional type of democracy than that practised in Western countries.
4⃣ America consistently fails to look beyond its own narrowly defined interests as it continues to rely on the “Law of the Jungle” and militarism in its foreign policy.
2⃣ Russia’s invasion of Ukraine contravenes some of the United Nation’s most fundamental principles and the idea that
#NATO
’s potential expansion into Ukraine could justify this so-called “special military operation” is simply wrong.
#China
’s population is ageing, declining and may just have been surpassed by
#India
’s. 🇨🇳 is getting old before getting rich. What should Beijing do?
Immigration? No way.
Top 🇨🇳 economist, Cai Fang, makes the following policy recommendations.
THREAD 🧵
2⃣ The U.S. is determined to maintain its global hegemony and sees suppressing China as key to preserving its current international position. However, this very pursuit is set to accelerate America’s decline.
5⃣ Since the U.S. refuses to share any aspect of international political, economic, or military leadership, it is unwilling to accommodate or even tolerate China’s rise.
9⃣ Americans are accustomed to thinking in binaries, e.g. good vs. evil,
#democracy
vs.
#autocracy
, individualism vs. collectivism. They are therefore unwilling to recognise the potential merit of political cultures different from their own.
7⃣ Yang: "There are three major schools of thought within American international relations theory: realism, liberalism and constructivism, each of which essentially serves U.S. hegemony and leadership."
Another piece on
#Macron
and
#VonderLeyen
's trip to
#China
and its implications for EU-China relations by seven 🇨🇳 scholars from Fudan, Tongji and Nankai Univ.
▫️ 10-point summary of Yang's views:
1⃣
#America
’s increasingly entrenched view of China as its “main security threat” relies on a number of problematic cultural, ideological, and theoretical ideas.
The first edition of Sinification is now out. Its main goal will be to provide a weekly round-up of key insights from Chinese think-tank and academic circles on a range of timely international topics.
To subscribe for free:
8⃣ A dysfunctional political environment in
#Washington
has created conditions where it is politically beneficial to demonise China and reject more benign approaches towards
#Beijing
that could lead to “win-win” outcomes.
"Scholz is also sending a certain message to those within Germany, that is: although the Greens are currently running the country’s foreign ministry, Germany’s most important foreign policy-making power still lies in the hands of the chancellor." – Wu Huiping
Analysis of
#China
's relationship with
#Russia
since the
#UkraineWar
tends to focus on official statements and diplomatic behaviour.
But what do 🇨🇳 experts have to say about this?
🪧Their views in 7 key quotes.
THREAD 🧵
▫️Feng's views in a nutshell:
1⃣ People in China have not paid sufficient attention to whether Russia’s war in Ukraine is a just or unjust one. The moral nature of this war is bound to affect its outcome.
#Sinification
is a newsletter focusing on the world as viewed from China.
📣 To receive weekly insights from Chinese think tanks and academic circles, don't forget to subscribe:
One year after
#Russia
's invasion of
#Ukraine
, Chinese experts assess the war's impact on 🇪🇺-🇨🇳 and 🇪🇺-🇺🇸relations and predict what may lie ahead.
Hint: Uncertainty prevails...
KEY TAKEAWAYS 🧵
New op-ed by one of 🇨🇳's key voices 'communicating with the West', ex-PLA colonel Zhou Bo in the FT yesterday:
"Will the war in
#Ukraine
spill over into a third world war? The short answer is: not unless
#China
lends military support to
#Russia
."
1/7
7⃣ China should remember that the Soviet Union’s collapse did not lead to the negative consequences that some had predicted. On the contrary, US-China relations ended up improving and Beijing was relieved of a major security concern across its northern border.
In today's edition, I look at Chinese tributes to Henry Kissinger and explain what they might tell us about
#China
(and its relationship with America).
Thank you very much to
@niubi
for featuring this piece in the one and only Sinocism.
🔹Cao Yuanzheng (曹远征) is a former chief economist at the Bank of China, professor at Renmin University of China and a member of the prestigious Chinese Economists 50 Forum.
Source:
3⃣ Moscow’s actions should be seen as part of a much broader strategy to rebuild its former empire and spheres of influence. They should also be viewed as an attempt to hedge against the potential shocks that the fourth industrial revolution and green transition are set to have…
"
#DeRisking
is [just like] using a scalpel to carefully peel off the key parts that connect the
#USA
&
#China
, and whitewash this with the excuse of safeguarding 'national security'." – Wang Wan (汪婉), director, Institute of International & Strategic Studies, Peking University.
4⃣ Russia has become a second-rate country, which is in no position to protect China from the turbulences of international politics. Moreover,
#China
is in no need of such a "big brother" or "little brother".
3⃣ “Most of the increased military spending by European countries is still likely to go to the
#US
rather than European countries’ [own] military industries ... This is clearly not a good sign for [🇪🇺] strategic autonomy."
As the likelihood of a
#Trump
-
#Biden
rematch strengthens, Chinese scholars have begun to weigh up the pros and cons for China of having either of the two men back in power.
Fudan University Prof. Wang Hao (王浩) provides his assessment.
[THREAD]
🪧 Zhang sees
#France
and
#Germany
as having a more pragmatic stance towards Russia but unable to impose their views due to “political correctness” (政治正确).
🇺🇸 Tech and supply chain strategy:
“The US's incremental adjustments allow resources to continue to be channelled into 🇨🇳 through ‘third countries’, ‘detours’ or even ‘transfers’, thereby allowing 🇨🇳 to make adjustments and repairs to its supply chains.” – Ma Xue, CICIR analyst.
9⃣ Beijing must prevent the West and other parts of the world from transferring their dissatisfaction with Russia onto China. China’s approach to this war could have an impact on its future development and influence in the world.
“Scholz's upcoming visit to 🇨🇳 is a sign of 🇩🇪's strong desire to encourage the further development of 🇨🇳-🇩🇪 cooperation at an important point in time – right after the 20th Party Congress and just as Chinese-style modernisation is embarking on a new journey.” – Tian Dewen, CASS
#China
's top diplomat Wang Yi has been in 🇷🇺 this week meeting with the likes of
#Putin
and
#Lavrov
.
Both sides noted their "closeness" in views when it comes to 🇺🇸.
This is a must-read by a senior 🇨🇳 scholar on anti-Americanism in
#Russia
.
THREAD 🧵
🔟 China should ensure that it "stands on the right side of history".
📣 To receive free weekly analyses by China's intellectual elite, focusing on the PRC's international relations, subscribe here:
"This is particularly positive at a time when the US is interfering in Europe's cooperation with China and at a time when the EU is calling for more stringent screening of foreign investments." – Tian Dewen, researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS)
Also recommend this interview with the controversial 🇨🇳 ambassador to France
#LuShaye
and former journalist turned Fudan researcher Zheng Ruolin discussing
#WolfWarrior
diplomacy in 2021.
Source:
Fudan Univ. researcher and former journalist Zheng Ruolin's (郑若麟) take on 🇨🇳 ambassador to France
#LuShaye
's recent interview.
Source:
(google translate)
4⃣ Chinese democracy belongs to the majority, not to a minority as in the West. Unlike in the
#UnitedStates
, China is not “owned by the 1%, governed by the 1% and for the benefit of the 1%”. ->
"Much like the recent 🇺🇸-🇨🇳 summit, the 🇪🇺-🇨🇳 summit will not resolve the most serious disagreements ... But it can lay the political groundwork for resolving and easing these differences" – Jian Junbo, dep. director of Fudan's Centre for 🇨🇳-🇪🇺 Relations
📍 Feng's article was first published on 11 March 2022. He recently reposted it on social media to mark the second anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
🪧 What is EU
#StrategicAutonomy
?
According to Zhang at least, it means the
#EU
“breaking away from US control and gaining the power to make strategic decisions on its own.”
8⃣ To see the
#RussiaUkraineWar
as a strategic opportunity for China would be wrong. Such opportunities derive from clearly articulated strategies and do not simply fall into one’s lap like pennies from heaven.
2⃣ “In the field of defence, the EU's aspiration [意愿] for strategic autonomy has clearly declined. Central and Eastern European countries, especially
#Poland
and the Baltic states, have become more dependent on the United States and
#NATO
."
7⃣ Chinese leaders are “tested through practice, not through votes”. Democracy in China thus ensures that “political amateurs with no experience or qualifications” cannot become its leaders.
Chen Shuguang (陈曙光) on how China's "community with a shared future for mankind" can lead the way in building a new world order.
→ Chen is the deputy director of the School of Marxism, Central Party School of the Communist Party of China (National School of Administration).
2⃣ 🇨🇳 democracy outclasses West. democratic electoral systems because of the complex processes it has developed which have allowed it “to move closer towards the people being the masters of their own house.” Procedural rather than substantive democracy best defines West. democ.
3⃣ Chinese democracy recognises the existence of “the people” in its holistic sense. Only by doing so can one ensure the people’s “overall, long-term and fundamental interests”.
“🇩🇪's upcoming visit to 🇨🇳 has also released a signal that despite all the clamour in 🇩🇪 ... Chancellor Scholz, 🇩🇪's business community and others still want to ... continue to promote economic and trade cooperation with 🇨🇳” – Ding Chun, Fudan University
"The
#MunichSecurityConference
is clearly no longer 'neutral'. The number of unfriendly voices against
#China
may increase in future. This will make it more difficult for us to use this platform to make our own voice heard."
🔹Wu Shicun – Found. Pres. Nat. Inst. for SCS Studies.
🔹The author: Yang is the head of the highly regarded Beijing Cultural Review (BCR). He is also the director of the Longway Foundation which publishes BCR. The foundation describes its publication as “the most influential magazine of intellectual thought and commentary in China”.
"If
#Trump
is reelected, I believe it will be very difficult for
#China
to engage in rational and pragmatic exchanges with him", argues top CPPCC foreign policy adviser, Jia Qingguo. His views on
#Taiwan
, Trump and 🇺🇸-🇨🇳 relations in 6 key points:
[THREAD]
Ke Jing’s (柯静) analysis of the 🇺🇸 and 🇪🇺’s de-risking approach to
#China
is a must-read for anyone interested in how Chinese analysts have been interpreting the recent transatlantic rejection of
#Decoupling
in favour of
#DeRisking
.
THREAD 🧵
🪧 Zhang also highlights the EU’s loss of the 🇷🇺 market, the weakening of the euro and 🇪🇺's growing dependence on 🇺🇸 gas as further increasing the EU’s dependence on the US. He worries that rifts in the 🇫🇷-🇩🇪 relationship may also hamper the EU’s push towards strategic autonomy.
Fudan Prof. Jian Junbo (简军波) discusses the European Union's
#StrategicAutonomy
, 🇪🇺-🇨🇳 relations in 2023 and provides his government with a few suggestions.
THREAD 🧵
"The fact that Scholz has decided to visit China despite internal and external pressures [not to] shows his political courage and political competence as well as his willingness to exert a positive influence on German domestic public opinion vis-à-vis China" – Cui Hongjian (CIIS)
4⃣ "In the economic sphere, the EU's capacity for strategic autonomy is also trending downwards in the long term ... The economic disparity between the EU and the
#USA
is widening ... [and] the economic relationship between the US and Europe will become [increasingly] unequal.”