Tom is in London!! @tdoggyholhol Twitter profile

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

2 years

My biggest regret is not DMing more random internet people to tell them I love their blog posts

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

2 years

“Being a millionaire in 2022 is just like being a mailman in 1953. You get to have a nice car, a family, and own a house in a safe neighbourhood. And if you save up, you even get to send your kids to college” Via @SamoBurja

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@tdoggyholhol

4 years

This @paulg essay is only 4 paragraphs but fucking gets me every time

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@tdoggyholhol

5 years

On Time and Risk: Brilliant essay by @ole_b_peters . Some takeaways. The game: You roll a die. If a 6, I give you 100x your wealth. If not, you give me everything you own. The expected return is 1600%. Should you play? 1/7

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

4 years

"Give me a lever long enough and I will move the world" ~ma boi Archimedes 🧔 Sure-fire way for a young person to have a great career: Acquire leverage. Thread: 1/10

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@tdoggyholhol

1 year

Only 2 things you need in a relationship: 1. Can you completely resolve conflict 2. Are they helping you become more like the person you want to be

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@tdoggyholhol

5 years

. @AndrewYangVFA 's follower count grew by 5k today, a growth rate of 3.2%. If he maintains this rate up to election day the #YangGang will be 18.9 billion strong #math

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

5 years

How can we use this in real life? Take bets for which p(ruin) -> 0, but the ensemble expected return is high. High potential for upside, while ensuring you stay in the game. 7/7

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

4 years

Much of “success” boils down to: 1. Find things you want to do. 2. Just keep doing the things you want to keep doing Eventually you’ll get good enough at those things to be useful to someone

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

4 years

Couldn't find a good summary of @wolfejosh 's ideas online so I made one. Lmk if I missed any out!

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

4 years

@s8mb Can’t believe you’ve created a perpetual motion machine and are only using it to water your cat

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

6 months

@dwarkesh_sp It’s a fundamental limitation, and imo a big reason why most “agi by 202X” predictions are nonsensical. LLMs don’t make connections—they make predictions based on relative frequencies in training data. It’s all induction, no causal models. If the training data only contains…

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

3 years

@paulg What explains that Bing et al have less PC results? There’s PC bias built directly into Google’s search algorithm?

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

5 years

The tools of stat physics were developed on ergodic systems, for which ensemble and time averages are equal. In real systems we cannot substitute them and must be careful. Poor risk management in the financial crisis stemmed in part from this error. 5/7

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

8 months

A Pulitzer prize winner just complimented me on my stupid joke What a time to be alive

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

5 years

In real life, you can only play each game one after the next. And at each game your probability of ruin is 5/6. It is easy to see if you play multiple times, p(ruin) -> 1. 4/7

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

5 years

The game is so risky because all your wealth is on the line. If you instead bet a fraction of your wealth, p(ruin) quickly goes to 0, while your potential upside stays high. 6/7

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@tdoggyholhol

4 years

All wealth is created by solving problems. I used to think the ultra-wealthy only got rich by taking advantage of others. I was wrong. An idea I wish I understood years earlier: You can get paid for creating wealth, or for capturing it. 1/10

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

1 year

@mbateman Matt Bait-man

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@tdoggyholhol

4 months

The 80/20 for whether I’ll end up friends with someone is: 1. Do they like walking 2. Do they read books

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

1 year

lets fucking go!!!

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

4 years

@visakanv Practicing good posture

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

5 years

An ensemble average is taken over many games simultaneously - in imagined parallel universes. A time average is taken as you play each game one after the next. Time averages =/= ensemble averages for most real systems. 3/7

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

4 years

@eriktorenberg Mandatory national service and a free/subsidised “birthright” ~3 month road trip. Culture of only doing it in small groups.

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

4 years

@visakanv Tweeted while hunched over my phone in bed

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

3 years

@robkhenderson It’s just signal/counter-signal/counter-counter-signal. People in first class are more concerned with distancing themselves from the Ralph Lauren wearing upper middle class flying business, than the riff raft in coach who they would never be mistaken for.

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

2 years

@emollick Maybe a vortex of left handed people will rotate clockwise ???

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

4 years

Types of leverage: -Software (write code once, execute 1000s of times) -Finance (borrow money to invest, make multiples of the invested sum) -Influence (persuade powerful people to make decisions) -Media (write article once, read by 1000s of people) ... 3/10

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

5 years

The maths seem to suggest it is rational to play. But that's because we're used to calculating ensemble averages. 2/7

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

5 months

@packyM @GillVerd I have a masters in physics and have no idea what this means

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

1 year

@alexandr_wang “Hanging out with friends = bad” is quite a take. Why not come up with cool ideas on your own then discuss them with friends? 😀

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

10 months

. @wolfejosh predicted Elon's "super company" X years ago

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

5 months

. @david_perell 's new podcast "How I Write" is goated. David talks a lot about "surrendering to your nature" and its obvious he adores talking to experts about their writing process. the pressfield, @0xRMT and @pmarca eps are unreal; and @lennysan 's ep is so good its canonical.

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

4 years

Strategy for hyper-career success: Cover subsistence living costs. Cover minimum viable happiness costs. Spend rest of energy acquiring leverage. I’m trying this in my own career. 8/10

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

2 years

lowwit: omicron was a lab leak midwit: noooo nooo don't be a crazy conspiracy theorist highwit: omicron was an intentional benevolent lab leak of a more transmissable, less dangerous variant to end the pandemic sooner

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

2 years

@tszzl @pmarca if you were in the same room as @pmarca you'd be "near-billionaire"

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

4 years

@JamesClear What advice, if any, would you give to your former self if you had graduated university last year?

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

4 years

Differences between London consulting grad jobs: - location (which skyscraper in SW1?) - title (Associate or Business Analyst?) - pay (£40k + £5k bonus or £45k all in?) - logo (green, blue, or red?) Similarities: - spend 14h/day making PowerPoint slides

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

3 years

Reading Great Founder Theory by @SamoBurja , will livetweet passages and thoughts here.

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

5 years

@AyoCaesar @georgeeaton @NewStatesman He’s dishonest. Maybe Scruton has unconscionable beliefs. But @georgeeaton self-servingly misrepresented him again and again to stoke outrage. This is so tiring. All people want is honest disagreement, not misrepresentation.

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

4 years

How I’m gonna do it: Work on as many projects in my target sectors as possible. Become an information sponge; if a teammate has a question, I will have the answer. Get really good at data analysis. 🤓 Impress colleagues at new job (reputation). 😎 10/10

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

4 years

Reputation is the most important kind. Get this first. It is being recognised for having unique, valuable skills. A stellar reputation allows you to get investors (finance), meet powerful ppl (influence), contribute to media. Ppl will send you opportunities (audience). 6/10

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

4 years

It's been over a year since I started writing online! Here's a short review of what I've learned:

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

11 months

Soccer match croissainteries are the ideal small business for 13 YOs h/t @simonsarris

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

4 years

How to get it 1 Top-down Join an organisation to use their existing leverage. Better brand -> greater leverage. Good for hierarchy, finance, influence, software 2 Bottom-up Write for an audience. Get users for a product. Build a company. Good for media, software, audience 7/10

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

4 years

It used to be definite optimism n chill, now it’s build or be built

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

4 years

Many people here probably underestimate how influential terrible high school / teenage experiences can be (Including me) Working out life and people for the first time is very very hard

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

3 years

Do any of my twitter peeps live in Vancouver? Just moved here. Lmk and I’ll buy you a coffee and/or beer.

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

5 years

@gravity_levity Also “complex Hilbert space” to “complicated Hilbert space” lol

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

4 months

👉😎👉 Excited to one day live somewhere with the beauty of a European city, the vitality of a South American city, and with people as ambitious and open-minded as San Francisco. Ty @drydenwtbrown and @CityofPraxis

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

4 years

My plan: Get financial/reputation/hierarchy leverage in at least one of: education, energy, transport. Build up media/audience leverage by writing blog + publishing various things online (like this!). Keep working knowledge of leverage not pursued: software, influence 9/

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

5 years

“Forgiveness is setting free a prisoner, and discovering the prisoner is you.”

Ed Latimore

@EdLatimore

5 years

Forgetting is a mental process. Forgiveness is an emotional one. You can forget many wrongs done to you--until you're reminded. People would NEVER have trust issues if you could simply forget and all is well. This is why forgiveness is the only path to peace of mind.

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

3 years

@BecomingCritter 1. People only remember you (or anything) if they have good reason to. 2. Forgiveness is setting free a prisoner and learning that the prisoner is you.

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

4 years

What is leverage? Leverage is a force multiplier. It turns good choices into soaring rocketships and bad ones into falling meteors. There are many kinds of leverage and two different ways of getting it. 2/10

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

4 years

@SamHarrisOrg In recent memory: 1. L’Etranger / ZATAOMM 2. The Righteous Mind 3. Boyd 4. Master and Margarita 5. Dune

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

6 months

@willdepue Thinking in systems donella meadows is pretty good How to solve it by polya is a personal bible But like others have said, to really model parts of the world you need to gather context so general frameworks aren’t great

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

7 months

@Altimor What level does 8 promotions get you to?

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

11 months

Excited to share that I'm joining @TurpentineMedia to run special projects! I'm excited to work with @eriktorenberg , @NatalieToren , @ASalyers3 and team to unlock the most interesting ideas stuck in the heads of experts.

Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

11 months

Super excited about @turpentinemedia . It’s contrarian to build a new media co in the middle of a downturn. But there are so many amazing podcasts that don’t exist yet!

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

3 years

Better late than never to the @threadapalooza party 1 like = 1 tweet on moving (to, or away from) home

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

4 years

@david_perell Except those kids will have skipped college entirely

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

2 years

Literally illegal to be unhappy with this view

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

5 months

It’s important to have A Thing. If you don’t have A Thing people don’t know what to do with you, but once you have one, everyone comes out of the woodwork to help you with your Thing.

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

2 years

Time to drop everything and readThe Pathless Path by @p_millerd ! So exciting for it to finally arrive!! Will live tweet my thoughts

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

3 months

did you know you can literally just choose to live exactly the way you want to

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

3 years

Samo's looking for a "true" theory of history, not a *true* theory of history... Basically looking for heuristics that explain the past and can help predict the future

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

4 years

@TheAnnaGat How much of this is due to people feeling they need to win the rat-race, Add Value and Hustle Hard? If we first clarified our goals (have an intellectually, physically and emotionally fulfilling life) maybe we’d have less of this

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

4 years

The types of leverage compound. Borrowing money to invest in a software startup is much more powerful than only borrowing money or writing software. You can influence many more people if you write to an audience instead of reaching people one by one. 5/10

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

4 years

you never know which blog posts are going to resonate...

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

4 years

@visakanv 20+40 + 7+8

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

4 years

gone down the @leashless podcast rabbit hole and it is bleak. He paints a picture of a car-crash earth - you know disaster is inevitable but somehow can't look away This one with @collinofzion is awesome

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

3 years

Me writing: Well this fucking sucks. What the fuck. Me rereading my old writing 6 months later: Haha fuck yeah!!! Yes!!

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

4 years

Two types of writing convince you to keep reading: 1. You want to know the overarching story or content so badly that you forgive mediocre prose 2. The prose crackles with such electricity that you keep reading despite the absence of narrative

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

3 years

my account is slowly migrating further outdoors

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

4 years

When u get a rejection letter for the role you started 4 months ago

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

7 months

@_mayankkishore @0interestrates This one really hits

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

4 years

Will permit myself a teeny brag First biz strategy seminar went well today! 18 months ago I didn’t know much about strategy. After lots of work, struggle + cofounding a company, I am credibly teaching it 😎

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

2 years

@strangestloop Aderall

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

5 months

Do you enjoy telling people about your work, anon? If you’re not enthusiastically explaining what you’re working on to people when they ask, you’re working on the wrong thing.

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

2 years

@pmarca What are the most important things you learned from having @vgr work at a16z ?

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

4 years

@swardley maps are feynman diagrams for business

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

5 months

Starting my own company just so I can use notion instead of GDocs lol

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

3 years

@clairlemon It's because the smart people have left for twitter, the good looking people have left for instagram, and the show offs are now on linkedin.

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

3 years

broke: increase taxes, pay your fair share woke: tithe to your homies

Wolf Tivy

@wolftivy

3 years

I offer one simple piece of money -> power advice: tithe to your most ambitious friends. It's not your money in the singular, it's your money in the plural: combine and focus.

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

6 months

Where were you when Sam Altman left openAI

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

4 years

@nateliason What’s the point of “crushing it” in your career anyway if it’s not serving a rich personal life

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

4 years

Types of leverage (cont'd): -Audience/Network (can crowdsource info, hiring, serendipitous opportunities) -Hierarchy (delegate jobs to employees) -Reputation (having a unique skillset that is in-demand) 4/10

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

4 years

I wrote an essay based on the week 1 readings from @matthewclifford and @join_ef 's "organising genius" reading group. Lmk what you think!

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

5 months

The Vancouver tech community has negative network effects lol - “Vancouver companies don’t buy from Vancouver companies” - VCs here encourage you to move - everyone who raises $ in Vancouver leaves

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

4 years

@JamesClear Venting increases the weight of the burden. Verbally processing decreases it’s weight. Both might be seen as complaining

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

5 years

@lsdan @AyoCaesar How do you draw the line? Some billionaires create thousands of jobs and useful products. Others merely collect rent off inherited wealth. I think these distinctions are more important than the fact that both people are super rich

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

3 years

@spakhm Reminds of the Boyd quote: "You can either do something, or be somebody."

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

5 years

@JamesClear Am I having fun?

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@tdoggyholhol

4 years

Each block of colour has an economy the same size as London

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@tdoggyholhol

3 years

“The story of civilisation” fun facts thread

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

4 years

Between the cracks searching for ideas which are surprisingly general, or generally surprising coming soon to a substack near you 😎

Between the cracks

In search of ideas which are surprisingly general, or generally surprising

betweenthecracks.substack.com

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

4 years

TIL: The same actor plays Haldir and Gothmog in the Lord of the Rings Get you a man who can do both

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

4 years

"Never be the smartest person in the room" is bad advice. Why would smarter people want to share the room with you? Instead: spend time with people who have a comparative advantage in skills you're interested in. You can teach them, and they can teach you.

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

4 years

“Search all the parks in all your cities, you’ll find no statues of committees” David Ogilvy was a real one

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@tdoggyholhol

2 years

@DanielleFong @SamoBurja Many more imo but they’re power law distributed, maybe 500-1000 “world meaningful” live players

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Tom is in London!!

@tdoggyholhol

4 years

@JamesClear Pre-mortems

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