$NVDA investors: "never seen anything like this"
I have.
$CSCO tripled revenue 1997 to 2000 ($6.4B to $19B) as the internet boom drove rapid networking spend. The stock mooned 10X
Then revenue flatlined 2000-2003 as the boom cooled. $CSCO stock lost 70% in 2001
@vladtenev
Not much detail here. People want answers
Is a clearing firm forcing you to do this? What is Citadel Securities role in this?
And why would you restrict buying in cash accounts? (margin accounts are another story obviously, we need you to be prudent with margin lending)
@nickgerli1
LMAO
The Austin market got overheated and is now cooling due to higher rates / lower affordability
Calling this a crash is clickbait bullshit. Austin has very strong population tailwinds and badly needs more inventory. A correction is healthy
With $GBTC trading at an all-time wide 45% discount to the value of its reported holdings, there is rampant fear & speculation about what happens next
I dug deep into the docs to figure out if this is an opportunity or the next big domino to fall in crypto & stocks👇
Michael Burry did NOT buy $1.6 BILLION of put options
In 13F filings, the underlying shares associated with puts are reported, along with notional value of the shares
When you see quantity of 4 million, that means 40,000 puts. Put cost was likely in the $10-50 MILLION range
Stocks are my bread & butter, but I've also invested in Bitcoin at various times since 2013
Recently a popular FinTwit personality laid out his bearish view of $BTC and I felt compelled to respond to the FUD
In the words of the great
@LynAldenContact
, here you go
@saxena_puru
:
$NVDA's numbers are bonkers, and I'm sure the story will play out somewhat differently
But every investor should have the $CSCO experience in the back of their mind
Demand pull forward looks incredible until it doesn't (many learned this from the pandemic and already forgot!)
@APompliano
No that is NOT the company wide average
That is the TOP of the driver pay scale for senior drivers and max they can drive is 60 hours per week (3K / year)
Most drivers will not be earning over $100K annually
Everyone is freaking out that 97% of $SIVB depositors are above the $250K FDIC insurance limit
However, $SIVB has $120B of cash + securities that can be quickly sold by FDIC to cover 2/3 of deposits
$73B of loan assets will eventually be sold to recover the other 1/3 (~$50B)
Almost all of $DOCU's $400+ million of annual cash flow is being paid out to execs & employees
These SaaS businesses that are not being run for the benefit of shareholders can't be defended until they change course
Tax loss selling this month has brutalized stocks that declined heavily year-to-date
We could see short term bounces on some of these washed out stocks in the next 5-10 trading sessions
Give this tweet a like if you want me to share my "Tax Loss Bounce Candidates" watchlist
Just recorded the 1st episode of my newly launched "Stocks & Coffee" podcast! 🎙
I'd be honored & delighted if any of you would like to give it a listen / follow (more listening platforms shortly!)
It's a work in progress and all feedback is welcome 🙌
It’s alarming to see how quickly Austin, a once prosperous & thriving city, is being destroyed by
@MayorAdler
’s new homeless policies
Tent cities, trash, drugs, dangerous encounters popping up with increasing frequency. People, jobs, and tourists soon on the way out. So sad 😔
What good is a $730+ Billion national defense budget if we can’t even keep our national Capitol from being stormed on foot by domestic terrorists?
What an utter disgrace
Since we're all looking at which banks could catch the contagion next:
My updated Q1 deposit flow tracker for US banks
I've also added stated CET1 ratios at quarter end
$FRC $PACW $WAL $USB $SCHW $JPM $BAC
The worst excesses in both stocks and crypto are being exposed & extinguished (healthy)
We’re now moving into the phase where many people give up on the long term valuable parts
Don’t fall into the permabear trap. It’s not all going to zero. Profitable opportunities lie ahead
Gamestop is in rough shape long term, but in the short run they have plenty of liquidity to stay alive. Meanwhile it's the most highly shorted stock in the market with 90%+ of the float short
$GME has the potential to be an absolutely EPIC multibagger short squeeze 🍿🎮🍿
tl;dr
I don't know how it all plays out from here, but I think $GBTC looks kinda interesting at a 45% NAV discount
My guess is the BTC is there
We can't rule out side effects & risks from DCG / GGT issues which are real but perhaps overblown in the wake of FTX
More to come...
Michael Burry did NOT buy $1.6 BILLION of put options
In 13F filings, the underlying shares associated with puts are reported, along with notional value of the shares
When you see quantity of 4 million, that means 40,000 puts. Put cost was likely in the $10-50 MILLION range
Chipotle popularized the "fast casual" restaurant trend and $CMG stock is up over 4000% since its IPO in 2006
Investors have salivated for the "next Chipotle" for years...could Greek food chain Cava be the one?
Some thoughts from the $CAVA IPO roadshow:
I’m finalizing an investment in “???” and will be leading their PIPE so it will soon be public.
Best SaaS company I’ve ever seen/invested in - and, as a public company, it will comp per the table and chart below.
One-pager to come soon.
@benitoz
The massive TAM won’t stop hardware demand from being front loaded as hyperscalers build out multi year capacity (just as $CSCO sales kept growing years after the bust)
And same as before, investors will run the stock to euphoric heights on unsustainable expectations
The founder of Papa John's trashing his namesake company's stock on SeekingAlpha is a strange & delicious meal that feels right at home here in bizarro world 2020 🍕😂
$PZZA
Michael Burry did NOT buy $1.6 BILLION of put options
In 13F filings, the underlying shares associated with puts are reported, along with notional value of the shares
When you see quantity of 4 million, that means 40,000 puts. Put cost was likely in the $10-50 MILLION range
Blindly buying stocks that have already gone parabolic, especially those with weak business fundamentals, is a recipe for bad returns even if you're trying to stick it to "the suits"
When I called out $GME at $4/shr it was an interesting setup but buying >$300/shr is reckless
@DizzleTheRizzle
@nickgerli1
No, I just think the bar should be higher for using the word "crash" when it comes to most markets
The doom & gloomers are rarely correct. Reality is more nuanced
Bitcoin and S&P 500 returns have often moved inversely in the past couple of years
I crunched the data and it's very interesting to see the negative correlation between $BTC and $SPX persisting. This has HUGE potential implications for institutional investor portfolios
+265% in one year
Popular doomer accounts did zero work but tried to convince you $GBTC was about to collapse
While lazy engagement farmers chase retweets, I'm doing the work to add real value for my tribe 💪
With $GBTC trading at an all-time wide 45% discount to the value of its reported holdings, there is rampant fear & speculation about what happens next
I dug deep into the docs to figure out if this is an opportunity or the next big domino to fall in crypto & stocks👇
How do you know if your bank is solvent?
Check the balance sheet!
Even private banks are required to file their financial statements. You can find them within "Call Reports" on the FFIEC site
(Ex: Mercury/Evolve is less exposed to "Held to Maturity" securities as $SIVB)
As a sanity check, look at the Assets Under Management (AUM) listed for Burry/Scion in their Form ADV filings
The firm only managed $238 million as of Q1 2023:
Silicon Valley Bank bought a 💩load of mortgage & govt bonds when interest rates were low
Rates have risen; the bonds took a price haircut
$SIVB is also losing deposits. As they flow out, it forces $SIVB to sell bonds at a loss
No other major US bank has as much exposure 👇
These things can all be true:
1) A few hedge funds made really stupid trades
2) Citadel may have acted inappropriately
3) Halting buy orders in all accounts is suspect & dumb
4) Some retail investors are acting reckless
5) Limiting margin trades in volatile stocks is prudent
$POSH has >40% of its market cap in net cash
Still growing, generating cash, nice trends behind it (secondhand etc). Growth is decelerating but the valuation looks undemanding
A busted IPO with ugly price action, but any stabilization in results likely means it works from here
I still suck at making videos, but I'm slowly improving
Just dropped a new vid walking through the bull vs bear cases on $PYPL
Go check it out on the stockgeektv YT channel and let me know what you think fam 🙏
And down goes $SI as it announces liquidation 😮
I tweeted about the risks at $SI and also talked about it on the "Stocks & Coffee" podcast in January
I'm gonna keep bringing the actionable stock insights. If you find it valuable plz share with others! 🙌
Blue Apron has not yet put out a press release indicating their Q4 earnings report date
In prior years this happened by the first week of February
With price & volume spikes in $APRN it certainly looks like something may be cooking behind the scenes 👀
I'm an aggressive buyer of $MAC here under $5 / share. This high quality shopping REIT is incredibly misunderstood & undervalued. Insiders buying heavily. Clear multibagger potential
I'll be releasing a deep dive video this week walking through my investment thesis 📈
Ok I'm biased but I think
@ChrisDunnTV
,
@SheTalksFinance
, and I have a pretty cool podcast going here. 31 episodes in and finding our rhythm
Covering stocks, cryptocurrency, personal finance, and everything in between. Would love for you to check us out 🎙🙌
@GordonJohnson19
@bongrat55
Well $TSLA reports FCF as Cash Flow From Ops ($2.351B) minus CapEx ($1.73B) = $621 million
Neither line item includes “Proceeds from sales of digital assets”. It appears later in the cash flows from investing section
There's been some painful drawdowns lately for stock investors, both retail & institutional. I've even heard dot-com bubble/bust comparisons thrown around
But how truly bad WAS the '00-'02 bear market for tech stocks? What does a "worst case" scenario actually look like? 📊👇
To us mere mortals $100 million seems massive, but Jensen owns $39 BILLION worth of $NVDA stock
He sold ~200K shares this week, all of which came from exercised options expiring 9/17
He still owns 86 million shares. He's literally only sold 0.25% of his holdings. Don't be a 🤡
JUST IN : NVIDIA CEO JUST SOLD ANOTHER CHUNK OF NVIDIA SHARES
THIS IS HIS THIRD SELL IN THE LAST FEW DAYS
HE HAS NOW SOLD $100 MILLION DOLLARS OF NVIDIA SHARES IN THE LAST FEW DAYS
$NVDA
A big splash celebrity CEO hire at $TWTR would have been a mistake
Parag as CEO sends a message that the company's focus is on product. They even mentioned development velocity in the press release :)
$TWTR still has a lot of work to do, but I see this as a positive step
The market could definitely go lower from here BUT it's worth noting that bullish sentiment is near one of its lowest levels of the past decade
Historically / statistically that has tended to be a good time to buy stocks
I can't wait to see the insider buying activity after earnings blackout periods end
Seeing which execs step up to the plate with their own money & conviction in their companies is illuminating
There’s a reason CEOs usually step down by age 70 (only 5% of $SPY CEOs are 70+)
Why are we allowing elderly politicians like McConnell, Feinstein, Biden, etc to make major decisions for 332 million people?
I mean no disrespect but step aside for the good of the country
BREAKING NEWS: Sen. Mitch McConnell appearing to have another scary episode in the media gaggle in Covington today. Aides had to step in to help him out and repeat questions. He was eventually lead away. We'll have the full video on
@WLWT
I'm a big fan of Snowflake's product & leadership team, but the valuation has been the problem
With the after hours dump, $SNOW is still trading >30X forward sales. Hard to earn a good IRR from that level
I'd be more interested below $120 per share (~20X forward sales range)
@lexfridman
Lex I’ve lived here in Austin for the better part of the last 18 years. Happy to help you figure out the landscape and anything else related to starting up (I’ve been part of several angel investor networks here and invested in ~15 Austin startups)
Favorable potential scenarios still on the table with $PARA:
1) Apollo makes bid public to force Board to run proper process
2) Activist investor enters
3) Redstone drops NAI sale
4) $PARA buys back Class A shares
5) White knight buys NAI (no SkyDance)
6) Court challenges
*The Skydance consortium is now waiting to hear back from the special cmte.
*Skydance consortium negotiated this deal thinking there would be no majority of minority vote and is prepared to walk if that's mandated.
Silvergate Capital's balance sheet is upside down: liabilities cost more than the assets earn. By end of Q4 the mismatch is even worse
$SI common equity is roughly $400 million (~$13 per share) and could get wiped by legal liabilities
Personally I wouldn't touch this stock ⚠
@KoyfinCharts
$SNAP also:
-burns cash (while $TWTR generates FCF)
-has less net cash on balance vs $TWTR
-executes on product roadmap faster than $TWTR
-has more direct competition (Insta Stories, TikTok, etc)
IMHO $TWTR is lower risk but lower reward vs $SNAP
I believe there's a high probability Tesla stock will heavily contribute to a future crisis in global markets (timing unknown)
The level of speculation, options volumes, margin loans, and momentum flows in $TSLA, on top of a sky high valuation, is immense. Proceed with caution
$TSLA traded an unbelievable $62b worth of shares today, that's more than the 10 next most active stocks combined and double $SPY. Outside of "Inclusion Day" (which was arguably shouldn't count) I think this is all-time record for a stock.
Overall $GBTC appears to have sound structure and is not directly exposed to Genesis / DCG liabilities
Distress at DCG would have ramifications however; $GBTC's sponsor (Grayscale) could be sold to another company or forced to wind down $GBTC which creates some value uncertainty
Top 50 worst performing S&P500 stocks in 2022 included many widely held favorites such as $TSLA, $META, $PYPL, $AMD, $NVDA, $NFLX, $AMZN, $INTC, $DIS, $CRM, $CHTR, $F, $WBD
Which ones do YOU think bounce back for positive returns in 2023?
(stay tuned for my answer😎)
Houston friend unfortunately has symptoms of
#COVID19
. Ben Taub hospital couldn't test her today (no tests). She was sent home
One of the largest hospitals in TX, in the heart of the world renowned Texas Medical Center, and testing is STILL NOT AVAILABLE. Unreal
@harrishealth
@collin_ruth89
You can protect pre-marriage assets but what you build after is shared
You’re young, so it’s FAR more important that you marry someone you can trust to be a partner for life in both financial & non-financial matters
A prenup is small potatoes in the grand scheme of it all
Zoom is trading at its lowest valuation EVER as a public company due to growth deceleration post-Covid
But here's something I've been thinking about: if the energy crisis persists well into this year & beyond, doesn't $ZM provide a critical role in reducing work commutes?
$GME stock was just above $4 that day, and it's now up 700% in five months!🤑
I didn't hold it through today, but some of our investing community members did. Congrats to those who held on for the wild ride!
Gamestop is in rough shape long term, but in the short run they have plenty of liquidity to stay alive. Meanwhile it's the most highly shorted stock in the market with 90%+ of the float short
$GME has the potential to be an absolutely EPIC multibagger short squeeze 🍿🎮🍿
In the past I said that Chinese stocks could rug pull US investors (sketchy VIEs etc)
But things are changing
The larger Chinese ADRs like $BABA, $BIDU, & $JD are now buying back stock AND paying dividends to US investors. They also trade at single digit P/E multiples...
Investing always involves uncertainty. But outsized returns are earned when others are being irrational, the probabilities are in your favor, and the reward-to-risk is high. Stay calm, do the work, maintain discipline. These are the times when fortunes can be made
As the bear cycle continues, being able to read & assess a balance sheet becomes a superpower for investors
Case in point: this SeekingAlpha author completely missed the $1.6 Billion of cash equivalents on $LYFT's balance sheet, rendering their conclusion worthless
Wow this $DBX earnings conference call is incredibly bullish. Management just raised their profit margin targets by ~40%
$DBX now expecting $1B of annual operating profit by 2024 😮💪
The reason $JPM is suspending its share buyback is because the Fed is forcing large banks to build larger capital buffers again, not because $JPM wants or needs to
And Jamie Dimon is pissed about it
As usual. Buyback stock while price is high. Stop buyback program while price is low.
Buybacks are not dependable. They have more agency risk of management screwing up timing than a scheduled quarterly dividend.
Confused about today’s market rally?
It’s a classic “green shoots” rally. Look at the sectors driving it: retail, financials, travel, cyclicals...the stuff that had not yet rallied much from the bottom. US states reopening heavily this week => economic numbers on the rise
@scott_dale73
100%
And now there’s also GPU cloud entrants like Coreweave and Lambda Labs doing significant build outs
Demand will slam into a wall someday but not this year
Top Gun Maverick is AWESOME
Sequels are really hard to do well, and they nailed it. The nostalgia really hit me with the feels 😭
Phenomenal. Go see it!
@highyieldgod
@DonutShorts
@elonmusk
I think this is incorrect? Proceeds from sales of digital assets does not flow through operating cash flow or $TSLA’s definition of FCF
Snowflake will be the hottest IPO of the year not named Airbnb
It's a fantastic data warehouse product, arguably better than Redshift & BigQuery, and miles better than old relational DBs like Oracle, MySQL, etc
Strong financial metrics + large TAM => sky high valuation
You think Blackrock, with $8 Trillion in AUM and 20,000 employees, helped $NVDA beat quarterly guidance to pump & dump the stock for a quick score?
Consider:
🔵 72% of $BLK's AUM are passive (index tracking)
🔵 BLK owns 7% of $NVDA due to its large iShares stock index ETFs such
Can $TWTR fly again?🐦
The social media co has seen some big ups & down, including a 25% gap down this past earnings season. Will it recover to deliver strong returns?
Check out my breakdown on the setbacks & opportunities at Twitter:
One thing I look for when buying stocks during a crisis is the ability for the underlying companies to survive drawn out periods of industry & economic weakness
This is especially true with cyclicals, energy, retail, financials, or anything with financial or operating leverage
FinTwit was in a rage this week over the recent market rally,
@chamath
's CNBC appearance, Fed stimulus, etc
Since permabears & pessimism are back out in force, I want to provide a more rational, fact-based, optimistic view of markets: