Nick Gerli @nickgerli1 Twitter profile | Pikagi

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Nick Gerli

@nickgerli1

100,496

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276

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CEO of Reventure Consulting and Reventure App.

Nashville, TN

https://t.co/Gn64thZUlO

Joined September 2018

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

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@nickgerli1

Nick Gerli

2 months

Help me out. 😀 ☝️Fill out this simple 11-question survey to help me better understand your interest in real estate and the type of housing data you want to see. Those who fill out the survey will receive a 40% off discount code to an annual

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Reventure Survey

Take this 11-question survey to help me better understand your interest in real estate. It should take less than 2 minutes. Survey respondents will receive a 40% off discount code to Reventure App on...

www.surveymonkey.com

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@nickgerli1

Nick Gerli

11 months

The Airbnb collapse is real. Revenues are down nearly 50% in cities like Phoenix and Austin. Watch out for a wave of forced selling from Airbnb owners later this year in the areas hit hardest by the revenue collapse.

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@nickgerli1

Nick Gerli

1 year

Mortgage rates back to 7%. Meaning that the cost to buy a house in America is now approaching $2,700/month when including mortgage, tax, insurance, and maintenance. Meanwhile, cost to rent is $1,850. Biggest gap we've ever seen. Something has to break.

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Nick Gerli

7 months

Wall Street Investors are beginning to sell their houses. This listing in Phoenix was bought by a private equity fund in 2022 at the peak of the bubble. Now they're listing at an 11% loss. It's just the start.

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Nick Gerli

1 year

WARNING: the Money Supply is officially contracting. 📉 This has only happened 4 previous times in last 150 years. Each time a Depression with double-digit unemployment rates followed. 😬

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Nick Gerli

1 year

This is scary. 😬 KB Homes, a large home builder, just reported a 68% CANCEL RATE. Meaning that over 2/3 of Homebuyers walked away from their contracts in the quarter. Leaving KB Homes with a massive pile-up of inventory. Last year the Cancel Rate was only 13%.

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Nick Gerli

1 year

Mortgage Applications to buy a house just collapsed to an index level of 147.📉 That's the lowest level of buyer demand in 28 YEARS. Lower than anything we saw in the 2008 Crash. Down 41% from last year. (Source: Mortgage Bankers Association)

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Nick Gerli

2 years

😬Big Problems ahead for Real Estate Investors. The 6-Month US Treasury now yields basically the same as Buying & Renting Out a House in America (aka Cap Rate). Translation: big Real Estate Investor selloff coming. Especially among Wall Street owners. 📉

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Nick Gerli

1 year

Money Supply contracts again in March. 📉 This is a massive economic warning. Money Supply contraction hasn't happened in 90 years. Only other times it has happened we had Depression / Major Banking Crisis.

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Nick Gerli

1 year

Wall Street Investors have officially abandoned the Housing Market. With Redfin reporting a colossal 49% crash in investor purchases in Q1 2023. This is the biggest annual decline on record. Even bigger than the drop that occurred in 2005 right before the last crash.

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Nick Gerli

8 months

We're in the biggest Housing Bubble ever in 2023. Home prices, adjusted for inflation, are 85% overvalued compared to their 130-year average. The only other time the overvaluation came close was in 2006. And we all know what happened next. 📉

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Nick Gerli

10 months

Is another Mortgage Crisis brewing? Homebuyer Debt-to-Income Ratios (DTIs) are now approaching 40% in the beginning of 2023. That means homebuyers are now spending 40% of their gross income on mortgage and interest costs. Same level as 2006. 😬 (Source: FHFA)

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Nick Gerli

1 year

The Savings Rate just collapsed down to 2.2%, the lowest level ever. 📉 Means Americans are running out of money. Last time it was this low was 2006-07. Right before GFC. Major Recession Warning. Expect a big decline in consumer spending in 2023.

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Nick Gerli

1 year

The fundamental problem in today's Housing Market is simple: Home Prices are growing way faster than Incomes. Real Home Prices up +102% since 1970. Real Incomes only up +26%. Something changed starting in early 2000s.

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Nick Gerli

2 years

Homebuyer Traffic just collapsed to lowest level since start of 2008 Housing Crash. -61% YoY. Not good.

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Nick Gerli

1 year

Investors are freaking out right now. 😬 US Treasury Yields plummet an insane 80bps the last two days. 📉 Biggest drop in yield since 1987 Flash Crash. Bigger than what happened after 9/11 and Lehman Brothers. Is a market collapse coming?

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Nick Gerli

11 months

1) What's scary for the US Housing Market is just how many Airbnbs there are. Data from AllTheRooms shows 1 million Airbnb / VRBO rentals. Compared to only 570k homes for sale. Creates huge home price downside if struggling Airbnb owners elect to sell.

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Nick Gerli

1 year

Americans can't afford their mortgages. Debt to Income Ratio on FHA mortgages hit 44% in 2022.📈 Highest % ever. Even higher than 2007-08 Bubble. Lots of defaults / foreclosures coming for low-income homeowners. (Source: Fannie Mae)

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Nick Gerli

1 year

There's too many Realtors. 1.6 Million currently registered with NAR. That's higher than 2007 Bubble. 📉30% of Realtors will likely quit during this Housing Crash. Once that happens, you'll know bottom is approaching.

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Nick Gerli

2 years

Home Builder Buyer Traffic just hit early-2008 Levels.📉 I'm not sure people have fully grasped how bad this Housing Recession/Crash is.

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Nick Gerli

2 years

🔥Buckle Up. Housing Crash in Austin, TX is getting EPIC. ❌No buyers. Selling liquidating. Inventory piling up in record fashion. June 2022 Inventory Gain of +2,132 was nearly 3x previous record. And it's just getting started...

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Nick Gerli

26 days

The US Mortgage Market is crashing. Hard. With Mortgage Applications to buy a house plummeting -14% from last year. And now languishing at their lowest level since 1995. The housing market is frozen. And buyers aren't coming back until prices/rates drop.

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Nick Gerli

1 year

📉The Demographic Decline of America. For first time EVER, there's more People Living Alone (37.9M) than Households with a Child (33.9M) BAD NEWS for future of Society and Housing Market.

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Nick Gerli

1 year

US Banks lost nearly $400 Billion in deposits in March.❌ Biggest monthly loss in deposits in US History. This data shows the gravity of the Banking Crisis. And why the Govt acted so quick to bail out depositors. Trouble is - I'm not sure they fixed the real problem.

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Nick Gerli

1 year

When the Money Supply Contracts📉, banks start collapsing.❌ This trend is very predictable. Each time the money supply has contracted in last 150 years, we've had a banking crisis. M2 Money is down -2% YoY. First time in 100 years. Take note.

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Nick Gerli

1 year

Apartment builders are going crazy right now.😬 1.1 Million apartment units currently in construction/permitting. 60% higher than pre-pandemic. Double peak set in 2007 Bubble. Bad news for Real Estate Investors. Means lower rents are coming. 📉

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Nick Gerli

1 year

Where Americans moved in 2022. 📈Florida: +319k 📈Texas: +231k 📉New York: -300k 📉California: -343k This was part of a broader trend of Americans moving South. Read more below...

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Nick Gerli

9 months

Mortgage applications just plummeted to the lowest level since 1995. 📉 Down 50% from pandemic highs. Not good. Sellers will need to reduce the price to bring buyers back in.

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Nick Gerli

1 year

It's now more profitable to buy a 6-Month US Treasury than to buy Real Estate. How do you think all those Wall Street Homebuyers feel right now? They're literally earning a lower yield than my mom's retirement account.

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Nick Gerli

2 years

The Housing Crash is getting BAD in these cities.😬 📈Inventory up 100% YoY. For Sale Signs Everywhere. Prices dropping. Would not want to be a Homeowner in Phoenix, Raleigh, Austin, Nashville, or Tampa right now.

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Nick Gerli

10 months

The commercial real estate crash is happening.📉 Values for office, retail, and apartment buildings are already down -11%. Morgan Stanley thinks values could crash -40% when all is said and done. Big problem for US Economy.

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Nick Gerli

2 years

📉Shocking Collapse in Mortgage Applications last week. Purchase Demand at lowest level in a DECADE. Comparable to lows in 2010 during last Housing Crash.

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Nick Gerli

2 years

📉Fastest Housing Crash Markets. 15% Drop in Sale Prices in Oakland, San Jose, & Austin in ONLY 5 MONTHS. That's warp speed for a Housing Crash. Some of these markets could be down 20-30% by Year End.😬

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Nick Gerli

1 year

1-Yr US Treasury now pays 5%. 📈 More than 3x higher than the dividend yield on the S&P 500. Makes it likely that stocks will crash at some point in 2023. As cash flow-driven, big money investors exit stocks for bonds.

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Nick Gerli

2 years

Housing Crash by State. 🔴Big Crash (aka Inventory Surge) 🔵No Crash (aka Inventory Down) Might be time to admit that people have stopped moving to AZ, NV, and TX. And are moving back to Northeast / Midwest.

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Nick Gerli

1 year

VACANT Rentals are piling up on the US Housing Market.😬 Like this one in Las Vegas. 📉10% Rent Cut. No takers. Been sitting empty for 4 Months.

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Nick Gerli

5 months

81% of Americans think Congress should ban Wall Street from buying homes. And force them to sell. That's quite a majority.👀

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Nick Gerli

11 months

2) Ground zero for this Airbnb collapse is a city like PHOENIX. Where the number of short-term rentals (18k) is more than DOUBLE the number of for sale listings (8k). Mix the huge Airbnb supply with revenues down -50% and you get a cocktail for massive forced selling.

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Nick Gerli

6 months

Wall Street investor selling house outside of Dallas. Zestimate has tanked by 28% from its peak in mid-2022. The current list price is almost back to where it was before the pandemic.📉 This is happening fast.

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Nick Gerli

2 months

New home prices have collapsed by 20% from peak. 📉 With the median sale price of a new house dropping from $497k in mid-2022 to barely over $400k today. Much faster decline than what occurred in 2008. In case you still think "there is no housing downturn".

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Nick Gerli

5 months

Congress wants to ban Wall Street from buying homes.❌🏠 And force them to sell their entire portfolio. If that happens, watch out for home price drops in the following metros: 📉 Atlanta Jacksonville Las Vegas Phoenix Dallas This is where Wall Street was most active.

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Nick Gerli

1 year

Home Builders reporting 40% CRASH in Sales. 📉 Yet their stock prices are increasing. Near all-time highs. Might be the biggest Stock Bubble out there right now. Check this out...

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Nick Gerli

2 years

LOOK OUT. Inventory on For Sale and Rental Market is exploding at the same time. 📈 This is called a "Double Housing Crash". Where there's a simultaneous collapse in Buyer AND Renter Demand. Real Estate Investors are panicking right now. They weren't prepared for this.

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Nick Gerli

2 years

Reminder: even with the recent decline in Home Prices, America is still in the largest Housing Bubble Ever. 40% Decline in Real Prices needed to get back to long-term trend. Prices today are STILL higher than previous peak in 2006 Bubble. More pain is coming.📉

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Nick Gerli

2 years

$80 Trillion - combined value of US Housing + Stock Market $25 Trillion - GDP There's a lot more Wealth Destruction to go. 📉

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Nick Gerli

1 month

The US Mortgage collapse just got worse. Demand to buy homes with a mortgage plummeted to -43% below pre-pandemic levels in March 2024. Finishing with the lowest demand for any March since 1995 (29 years). In case you thought the US Housing Market was "recovering".

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Nick Gerli

1 year

Realtors are officially quitting. The growth rate in Realtors registered with the NAR officially went negative in May 2023. That's the first contraction in the # of Realtors in America since the 2008 crash.😬

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Nick Gerli

1 year

Mortgage Applications to Buy a House just dropped 39% YoY in March. That was the worst March performance since 1995. Difficult to see how a "recovery" in Housing is occurring with this data.

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Nick Gerli

1 year

2023 is already the worst year of Bank Runs in US History measured by deposits held by failing banks. SVB & Signature had $263B in deposits combined. Already more than the deposit exposure of failed banks in 2008. Yikes. 😬

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Nick Gerli

2 years

What happens to Stock Prices when the Fed Pivots? Historically - they crash by even more.📉 Over the last 6 Major Recessions, Stocks Crashed an average of 28% AFTER the Fed did 1st Rate Cut. Taking another 14 Months to get to the "Bottom".

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Nick Gerli

6 months

Wall Street investors continue to sell their houses. Often with big price cuts. This listing outside Houston comes from AmericanHomes4Rent. They've cut the price by -12% to $215,000. And it's still on the market.

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Nick Gerli

2 years

🔥Well that was fast. Phoenix, AZ now has MORE Homes for Sale in 2022 than it did at Pandemic Start. +125% Inventory Surge in 2 Months. Buyers are gone. Sellers are desperate. This is what start to a Housing Crash looks like. 🏠📉 Source:

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Nick Gerli

11 months

3) Another area with huge exposure is Eastern Tennessee. Particularly a vacation town called Sevierville in the Smokey Mountains. In this county there's 10x as many Airbnbs as homes listed for sale. While the revenue per owner is down nearly 50%. Yikes.

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Nick Gerli

4 months

The Austin, TX Housing Market is turning into a bloodbath. Home Values already down -16% from their peak in mid-2022. 📉 Warning signal to rest of US Housing Market. Once inventory rises, all bets are off.

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Nick Gerli

1 year

DR Horton sales order backlog just fell by 44% YoY. 📉 2022 Q2: $13.3 Billion 2023 Q2: $7.4 Billion That type of drop is comparable to what occurred from 2006 to 2007 in the beginning stages of the last Housing Downturn.

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Nick Gerli

11 months

6) And ultimately this Airbnb crash was to be expected. The pandemic is over. Fewer people are working from home / vacationing in states like Montana, Texas, and Tennessee. So the demand is way down. Just as the Airbnb supply went way up. So you get a crash.

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Nick Gerli

11 months

7) What will be interesting is how "stubborn" Airbnb owners are in holding their properties. Many of them are just now seeing their revenues down 50%. But the mainstream narrative hasn't caught up to it yet. So owners might not realize the Airbnb crash is a broader trend.

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Nick Gerli

11 months

10) I think "newbie" Airbnb owners who bought over the last 1-2 years with a mortgage are in trouble. They got in at a high price. And have a high monthly payment. And little margin for error. They could be some of the first to sell later in 2023 when the season ends.

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Nick Gerli

11 months

Home builders keep cutting the price. 📉 With new home prices down -16% from the peak last October. A much faster decline than what occurred in the beginning stages of the 2008 housing downturn.

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Nick Gerli

1 year

Looks like the Recession is starting in the South. Southern states lost jobs for the 3rd straight month in April according to ADP. Meanwhile: Pacific/Northeast had huge job gains (+) Big implications for real estate in 2023 if these trends hold.

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Nick Gerli

11 months

Rents are dropping. 📉 Hardest-hit cities include Austin, Las Vegas, and Phoenix, where rental rates are down -6% over the last year. Meanwhile - taxes, insurance, and interest costs are up significantly. Cocktail that could mean forced selling in H2 2023.

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Nick Gerli

11 months

4) Another area to watch out for is Central Texas. Data from AllTheRooms shows that Airbnb revenues are down 40-50% yoy across most of the area. Particularly in Austin, San Antonio, Uvalde.

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Nick Gerli

11 months

12) I'll have more content and data on the Airbnb crash in coming weeks. The data used in this Tweet thread came from AllTheRooms. They're a short-term rental data provider who tracks Airbnb supply, rates, and revenue for every market in the country.

Short-Term Rental Analytics | AllTheRooms

AllTheRooms provides short-term rental analytics to help you analyze your market, find investment opportunities and track your competition.

www.alltherooms.com

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Nick Gerli

28 days

Discover Financial, the 6th largest credit card issuer in America, just reported a massive spike in defaults. Their net charge-off rate - an indication of how many accounts are deemed as "uncollectable" - spiked to 5.7% in early 2024. The highest since the GFC. 📈

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Nick Gerli

1 year

For those expecting a Fed Pivot: don't count on it. ❌ Inflation is 6.0%. Well above unemployment rate of 3.6%. Still a historically unprecedented situation that suggests financial conditions are loose. Fed's dual mandate says they need to keep hiking.

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Nick Gerli

11 months

5) Another area that is getting smoked by the Airbnb Crash is the Pacific Northwest / Mountain Region. States like Montana, Idaho, and Oregon. Fewer people playing out their Yellowstone fantasies + way more supply = 40% declines in revenue per listing.

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Nick Gerli

6 months

Home Prices for Builders just crashed by the fastest level on record. Down a massive -18% over the last year. 📉 Biggest annual decline in new home prices going all the way back to 1965.

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Nick Gerli

18 days

American homebuyers can now expect to pay 41% of their gross income on mortgage costs. This is the highest rate of mortgage burden since the early 1980s when rates were 18%. No historical precedent for this lack of affordability lasting. Note that in mid-2000s bubble the

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Nick Gerli

7 months

Here's an ominous indicator for the Housing Market. The 10-year government bond now yields a higher return than the Cap Rate, or profit from operating a rental property. No wonder real estate investor demand is collapsing. More profitable to buy bonds.

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Nick Gerli

2 years

2022 Housing Bubble... BIGGER THAN 2006? Yes. Just take a look at Home Values adjusted for Median Income.

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Nick Gerli

1 month

Airbnb owners next to Disney are selling. And selling fast. With the for sale inventory in the ZIP code south of Disney skyrocketing by 431% the last two years. Now to the highest level of listings on record. By far. Watch out for this Airbnb selloff to spread to more markets

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Nick Gerli

1 year

Home Sales UP.📈 Mortgage Applications DOWN.📉 Mortgage Apps tend to "lead" Housing Market by 1-2 months. So the current uptick in home sales unlikely to last long. Sources: NAR / MBA

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Nick Gerli

2 years

📈Income Needed to afford a House in Austin, TX... $76,000 - Sept 2020 $160,000 - Sept 2022 Yikes - no wonder the Housing Market is Crashing.😬

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Nick Gerli

11 months

8) Some Airbnb owners might elect to do a long-term rental in their properties instead. But the problem with that is that there has already been a huge surge in long-term rentals hitting the market. With vacant rentals in cities like Nashville exploding over the last year.

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Nick Gerli

1 year

Inventory on the Housing Market is exploding. 📈 Nashville, Austin, and Phoenix have 3x more homes on the market today compared to one year ago. Expect home prices to continue crashing in the metros on this list throughout 2023.

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Nick Gerli

1 year

Wall Street Homebuyers are running out of money. ❌ In Pandemic Boom they raised $32 Billion to fund home purchases.🏠 Last 3 quarters? Only $3 Billion. Very soon they will need to sell properties in order to fund new acquisitions. That's when things will get fun.

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Nick Gerli

1 year

📉Austin, TX Home Prices are now down 18% from peak. May 2022: $574k Dec 2022: $468k Never forget that only 6 Months ago people said this market wouldn't crash. (Source: Redfin)

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Nick Gerli

2 months

A record number of Americans are taking hardship withdrawals from their 401k. The figure has nearly doubled over the last four years. 40% of these hardship withdrawals are to avoid foreclosure. People are running out of money.

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Nick Gerli

1 year

Fed recklessly prints $300 Billion last week in their effort to bail out the Banking System. 💵 Make no mistake: this IS inflationary. Money Supply will expand. Very bad look for Powell / Fed. They have lots of explaining to do next week.

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Nick Gerli

7 months

1) And it gets better: the owner of this property is a corporate entity called 'Hudson Sfr Property Holdings Iii'. According to PropWire, this entity owns over 3,100 houses. With over $3 billion of debt attached to the portfolio.

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Nick Gerli

1 year

📉Cities getting slammed by Housing crash: Austin, TX Bay Area, CA Seattle, WA Boise, ID Phoenix, AZ Las Vegas, NV Prices down over 10% from peak in all these cities. And worse - there's no relief in sight.

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Nick Gerli

11 months

9) So if Airbnb owners "pivot" to long-term rentals, they'll likely crash that market as well. Especially in dense urban areas. Which is where the majority of Airbnbs are located. Check out the Airbnb heatmap in a metro like Phoenix to see areas with most exposure.

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Nick Gerli

1 year

1) Other periods of Money Supply Contraction other than 2023: -Great Depression 1929 -Depression of 1921 -Panic of 1893 -1870s Banking Crisis All previous situations had unemployment rate north of 10%. And massive bank failures.

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Nick Gerli

1 year

The Bank Credit Crunch has arrived. The Fed survey of bankers showed 46% tightened lending standards in Q1 2023. That's heavily in "recession" territory. And nearing the contractionary levels experienced during Pandemic, GFC, Dotcom Bust, and Gulf War Recession.

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Nick Gerli

11 months

11) However, some of the more seasoned Airbnb operators who got in before the pandemic likely have room to work with. They paid less for their Airbnb. Have a cheaper mortgage rate. And more experience. They will be less inclined to sell.

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Nick Gerli

7 months

Something strange is going on with the Home Builder Sales figures. New Home Sales have "bounced" back up over the last year, surprising many in the Housing Market. Yet - Buyer Traffic at home builder sites has collapsed to the lowest level in decades.📉 What's going on? 🤔

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Nick Gerli

25 days

Housing inventory in Orlando, FL is skyrocketing. With the active listings on the market up an amazing +362% over the last two years. This now brings the total inventory in Orlando back to pre-pandemic levels. Inventory is rising because there are fewer buyers and more

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Nick Gerli

8 months

Houses are about to get a lot smaller. 📉 For the last 70 years, builders have been building bigger and bigger houses - with average SF ballooning from 1,000 to 2,500. Just as fewer and fewer people are living in the houses. Not sustainable.

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Nick Gerli

2 years

📉Cities that CRASHED the Hardest during the last Housing Downturn. Might be time to sell if you own in CA, FL, AZ, or NV.

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Nick Gerli

21 days

Housing inventory in Nashville, TN has skyrocketed. Surging by an insane +385% over the last two years. Inventory is now at its highest level in 5 years. Suggesting a sharp slowdown in the market. Fewer buyers, more sellers. Nashville could be another market where prices drop

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Nick Gerli

1 year

1) Contracting money supply + inflation is a nasty combination. Because it means there are fewer dollars floating around in the system to pay for the higher prices. ❌💵 At some point the system "breaks" & a deflationary crash occurs.

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Nick Gerli

1 year

2) Mortgage applications to buy a house in mid-May were already at lowest level in 20 years. Now they will likely decline further due higher mortgage rates. I mean - how low can homebuyer demand in the US Housing Market go before something in the economy breaks?

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Nick Gerli

7 months

2) So there could be more investor selling coming. Because apparently the real estate photographers in Phoenix are very busy taking photos of new listings right now.

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Nick Gerli

6 months

Look out. Inventory on Florida's Housing Market is spiking. 🏠📈 Investors are starting to sell. While the pandemic boom in buyers is subsiding. Signal that home prices in Florida could be dropping soon. ⚠️

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Nick Gerli

19 days

The cost to buy a house in America in 2024 is over $2,750/month on average. That's the most expensive homebuyer cost of all-time. In comparison to other time periods: $2,754/mo - Today $1,418/mo - 2020 Pre-Pandemic $1,577/mo - 2006 Bubble $1,060/mo - Dotcom Bubble $922/mo

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Nick Gerli

1 year

⚠️ Major Yield Curve Inversion right now is suggesting big Recession in 2023. Last time Yield Curve was this inverted was 1981. Right before the unemployment rate went to 10%.

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Nick Gerli

2 months

Housing Markets with the biggest price drops over the last 18 months... 📉📉📉 1. Austin, TX: -17% 2. New Orleans, LA: -12% 3. Boise, ID: -11% 4. Lake Charles, LA: - 11% 5. San Francisco, CA: -10% 6. Chico, CA: -8% 7. Provo, UT: -7% 8. Reno, NV: -7% 9. Santa Cruz, CA: -7% 10.

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Nick Gerli

27 days

The Housing Boom in Florida and Texas is officially over. with both states ranking in the Top 10 for biggest growth in supply/listings YoY. Florida at #1 . Texas at #6 . All of that inventory is going to turn into lots of price cuts as the housing market turns over into the

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Nick Gerli

4 months

Mortgage Applications to buy a house cratered in January 2024. To the lowest level of homebuyer demand in 30 years. Down -14% YoY. -54% from pandemic peak. And -40% from 2019. Home prices/mtg rates need to go down a lot to bring buyers back in.

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Nick Gerli

1 year

Uh-oh. Layoffs are starting to show up in the jobs data. Specifically in the South. New payroll data from ADP shows states across the South (TX, FL, TN) have LOST JOBS to start 2023. Meanwhile coasts are still adding jobs. Just a blip? or start of a trend? 🤔 #recession

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Nick Gerli

1 year

1) the easiest thing to "break" is Mortgage Rates going back down. The next easiest thing to break is Home Prices coming down. Likely some combination of the two will be required to save the US Housing Market from another massive collapse in buyer demand.

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