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steph pomboy Profile
steph pomboy

@spomboy

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Blah blah blah Yadda yadda yadda.

Back and to the left
Joined November 2013
Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.
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@spomboy
steph pomboy
2 years
The tide is going out. And I suspect we are going to come to the cringe-worthy discovery that A LOT of people who shouldn't have been (just like your typical nude beach) have been swimming naked.
@lcdnews
Leveraged Loans
2 years
Leveraged loans backing LBOs dried up in 3Q as investor appetite for risk disappeared. Indeed, the cost of LBO financing skyrocketed in terms of interest rates ( #leveragedloans are floating rate) and re deep discounts on the debt. Much more: @PitchBook
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@spomboy
steph pomboy
3 years
I'm just crazy enough to believe that China may intentionally unleash a credit contagion (via Evergrande) to burst our asset bubble and accelerate its progress toward challenging dollar hegemony
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@spomboy
steph pomboy
1 year
And now.... I'd like to introduce the director of signature bank
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steph pomboy
8 months
I've been a broken record on the forthcoming corporate credit bust--and the CERTAINTY that it would be worse than the GFC-- for a year and half. It's now starting to unfold...Busiest August for Bankruptcy filings ON RECORD
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@spomboy
steph pomboy
4 years
we're getting close!!! my 40-something housekeeper from the DR just asked me if i had heard about "something called Robinhood?". her brother-in-law told her she had to get "into it'. she had no idea what it was. i think she thought it was some kind of a bank.
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@spomboy
steph pomboy
2 years
Suddenly my call that the fed won't get off a single rate hike ( Which I made months ago) is looking less crazy. Please remember you heard it here 1st😉 when all the Johnny come lately's clamor on to my one woman bandwagon.
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steph pomboy
4 years
Alright.,we'll see how this one holds up in time. Bought S&P puts today. Feels like we are reaching "peak euphoria". the eye of the storm has almost completed its pass over us. now comes the real pain. w/everyone in, mkt grinds slowly lower and lower like boiling a frog in water
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@spomboy
steph pomboy
2 years
Junk bond yields have gone from 4% at the end of Dec (eg 6 mo's ago) to 8.4% today. That's their highest level since 2015. Prepare to see an absolute ONSLAUGHT of corp defaults and downgrades. The myth of corp B/S strength is about to be shattered spectacularly.
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@spomboy
steph pomboy
1 year
So.... we are somehow going to backstop $17.6t in deposits with $128b of FDIC capital...and gold is DOWN???????
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@spomboy
steph pomboy
2 years
2-10yr curve 31bp...and flattening. why isn't every economist on Wall St forecasting a recession??
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@spomboy
steph pomboy
1 month
For the life of me I can't figure why this hasn't gotten more attention. I've been routinely chided that consumers are spending on services/experiences instead of stuff. But restaurant sales&traffic are the weakest since they were CLOSED during covid, and the GFC before that,…
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@spomboy
steph pomboy
2 months
Over the last 3 months the US economy has shed 1.87million full time jobs. That's the largest decline since the GFC, outside the covid lockdowns.
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@spomboy
steph pomboy
4 years
To be clear...the rally is to be SOLD because COVID-19 is just the thing that pricked the bubble. when it ends, the financial fallout from the bursting of the credit bubble will still be raining down upon us. And it ain't gonna be pretty.
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@spomboy
steph pomboy
11 months
How is this not the ONLY thing people are talking about today? The trend in weekly same store sales is F-ugly! And remember, this is NOMINAL. (The picture is even f-uglier in the context of soaring credit card borrowing).
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@spomboy
steph pomboy
3 years
"How is this not the #1 story this morning? Japan Govt Pension cuts UST holdings to 35% of intl bonds...while INCREASING EU sovereigns?! Reminder: UST yields 1.25%, GY -0.46%, FR -0.12%, UK +0.55%. Dumping the Dollar.
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@spomboy
steph pomboy
1 month
We've lost 1.8 MILLION full time jobs in just the last 4 months. 🤢 That's (not surprisingly) the biggest such drop since Covid and the Great Recession before it.
@spomboy
steph pomboy
1 month
Nothing about this chart suggests we have a 'strong' labor market. Far from it. FT jobs down -1.3% yy...PT jobs up 7.5%y/y
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steph pomboy
1 year
The only thing more stupid than the Fed making economic forecasts is "journalists" asking questions about those forecasts. These guys couldn't forecast wind in a hurricane.
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@spomboy
steph pomboy
1 year
At the risk of revealing how long Ive been at this, all the chatter about the end of the USD reserve status reminded me of this interview i did with Barrons….11 years ago. The title— “Coming: The End of Fiat Money”— sounded radical then. Not so much today!
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steph pomboy
2 years
2-10yr curve chart. the last 6 times we were at current levels presaged major economic and/or financial crises. during that time we have NEVER seen a simultaneous increase in oil this fast without recession. i rest my case.
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@spomboy
steph pomboy
3 months
Is it just me? My first thought arter hearing the special council‘s remarks about Biden‘s declining faculties is that the Democrats are setting the groundwork for a 25th amendment removal of Biden, and last minute switcheroo at the convention.
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@spomboy
steph pomboy
10 months
Here's your "indefatigable" consumer...Weekly Same Store Sales just entered contraction. And that's BEFORE accounting for inflation.🤫
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@spomboy
steph pomboy
2 years
The speed with which we are going to go from concerns about hyperinflation to deflation — and the Fed from QT to re-expanding its balance sheet —is going to be absolutelyhead spinning for many.
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steph pomboy
2 years
Just buying more PHYS on today's dip. Fidelity requires that i acknowledge an investment objective of "most aggressive" to process the order. But i can buy ARKK free and clear. WTF???????????????????????????
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@spomboy
steph pomboy
9 months
Holy crap!! this is NOT bullish for US asset markets.
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steph pomboy
1 year
At the risk of sounding ghoulish, I literally CANNOT WAIT--and hope and pray-- for the economic and destruction a la 2008-9 to rain down on this economy, so we can finally be done with this late-stage-of-an-empire MADNESS!!!
@RepChipRoy
Rep. Chip Roy Press Office
1 year
“So to clarify, you do believe that biological males should be able to use the bathrooms in which our young women are changing and using to participate in sports…?” SOUND ON🔊
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steph pomboy
1 year
I'm puzzling to understand how THIS isn't the only thing people are talking about today????????? Someone tell me about the rabbits. and fast!
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@spomboy
steph pomboy
2 years
Gold highest in history. Meanwhile, gold miners are the highest they've been since...June. 😂
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steph pomboy
2 years
I've seen a lot of stupid s#*t in the 30+years I've been at this. But the glee with which equity investors are running into the 2"x4" is other level.
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@spomboy
steph pomboy
4 months
1/3 As the mkts eventually figured out, this a.m.'s emp report was hideous. The increase in headline payrolls owed a huge debt (again) to govt. And the quality of jobs impugned by RECORD # of multiple job holders while Full Time Emp dropped 1.5m!!! yes, MILLION.
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@spomboy
steph pomboy
7 months
Yesterday it was Yellen assuring that there was no bond market 'dysfunction' despite higher rates. Today it's Collins assuring that the economy is less interest rate sensitive than in the past. It's not sexist to say that both of these ladies have their heads up the butts.
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steph pomboy
1 year
And don't even get me started on pensions. I've ranted breathlessly on that. They will be the subject of a bailout the likes of which we have never before witnessed. If you think the bank bailout is gonna be massive...stay tuned. You ain't seen nothing.
@spomboy
steph pomboy
1 year
ya know what’s keeping me up at night? Thinking about the unseen exposure by NONbank finl institutions to things far riskier than the stuff bringing down the banks. Esp, the prospect that some insurer (&counterparty in the giant mkt of credit derivatives) is about to go toes up
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steph pomboy
5 months
It was a true honor to get to reconnect with @TuckerCarlson on his new network @TCNetwork 💪💪💪 He is one of the few who "gets it". Unfortunately most mainstream media. .and investors don't.
@TuckerCarlson
Tucker Carlson
5 months
People used to be suspicious of debt. Now the whole economy is based on it. Stephanie Pomboy knows that's about to come crashing down.
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steph pomboy
1 year
Watching the tape today I can't help but wonder if investors are now SO FAR down the ESG rabbit hole they can't see the mathematical, er... 'problem'... of trying to backstop $17.6t in deposits w/the $128b in FDIC capital-or the $14.5t in public pensions with the $37.7b in PBGC.
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steph pomboy
5 months
This is probably a better look...and more ominous. It appears that GDI has only been negative y/y while GDP was positive twice before-- 2001 and 2007. Buckle up for the hard landing.
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steph pomboy
4 months
If This is the evil globalist mastermind that we‘re up against, suddenly I really like our chances
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steph pomboy
1 year
For my money, the most interesting…and foreboding…aspect of the downfall of Blankman-Freed’s FTX is the «revelation» that the Ontario Teachers Pension was a major investor. The coming pension crisis is going to be massive…and the switch to QE by global cbks whiplash-inducing.
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steph pomboy
3 months
Watching the meltdown in Regional Bank stocks I begin to understand why the FED removed the line about a "sound and resilient" banking system from its statement yesterday 😂😁
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steph pomboy
1 year
ya know what’s keeping me up at night? Thinking about the unseen exposure by NONbank finl institutions to things far riskier than the stuff bringing down the banks. Esp, the prospect that some insurer (&counterparty in the giant mkt of credit derivatives) is about to go toes up
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steph pomboy
7 months
While everyone is focused on the back-up in Treasury yields, the Junk Bond yield has shot up to 9.25% (highest since last November). Corporate debt service is exploding, as revenue withers.
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@spomboy
steph pomboy
10 months
The chart showing Corp net interest payments declining is burning up the financial blogosphere. That data come from the BEA's NIPA accounts. Here is 1q data from S&P. The difference is every company that's too small to make it into the top 500. Those companies are filing for…
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@spomboy
steph pomboy
3 years
????????? i guess no one in equity-land noticed that Biden's $1.75t stimulus proposal includes a tax on share buybacks.
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@spomboy
steph pomboy
5 months
Lost in all the excitement about a pivot is the reality that 100bp or even 200bp cut in FED funds rate accomplishes nothing in terms of staving off the impending default cycle. Having 4% junk rated debt roll at 7.5% ( instead of 8.7%) isn't going to help. The FED would have to…
@lcdnews
Leveraged Loans
5 months
Maturity wall update: The amount of #leveragedloan debt due in the next 2 years is larger than ever, and roughly half of that are riskier, B-minus rated credits (better-quality borrowers have refinanced already) @Kakourisr @PitchBook
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steph pomboy
1 month
Nothing about this chart suggests we have a 'strong' labor market. Far from it. FT jobs down -1.3% yy...PT jobs up 7.5%y/y
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steph pomboy
1 year
I'm still trying to gather my senses after that stunning payroll #. Are they just making this stuff up now?? The Payroll gain comports with NOTHING else we are seeing: layoffs, small biz hiring, ISM surveys, ADP, etc, etc. But here's one answer: Part time emp +627k
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steph pomboy
1 year
A more powerful statement about how truly unfocused and unserious Wall Street's media shills are one could not find. We are heading into a repeat of 2008-9 and they are STILL trotting out this charlatan???
@SquawkStreet
Squawk on the Street
1 year
Coming up on @CNBC : we talk the tech market with @ARKInvest CEO @CathieDWood - tune in at 10AM ET! $ARKK
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@spomboy
steph pomboy
2 years
And so it begins.... this is key to remember on days like today. The stock market may celebrate any positive headline. But the deterioration in the credit market marches on. And that is all that matters.
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steph pomboy
11 months
Here's a little economic irony: just as everyone has concluded the worst is behind us, a look at the history of the Leading Indicator and recessions shows the LEI peaks 8 months before the recession begins, declining -4.4%, on avg of last 7 cycles. We dropped -4.4% last…
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steph pomboy
2 years
i expect this FOMC to go down like the last one. mkts rallied hard (+303pts) on announcement then sold off twice as hard (-741pts) after sleeping on it.
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@spomboy
steph pomboy
6 months
Finally! We have an answer to the question: if the US continues its march toward Oblivion, where would I move to?
@TuckerCarlson
Tucker Carlson
6 months
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steph pomboy
8 months
Bloomberg is now so blinded by liberal rage they're actually arguing that $2 gasoline would be a bad thing. (Their case is that it would bankrupt the oil industry. But, wait, isn't that the aim of all their policies??). They've really twisted themselves into a pretzel on this…
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steph pomboy
3 months
So JetBlue and spirit airlines can’t merge but Discover and capital one can??🤔
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steph pomboy
1 year
1/3 This rule to impose fees on homebuyers with high credit scores in order to subsidize access to lower-quality credits is so obviously misguided and DANGEROUS, it makes you wonder what the real objective is here...??
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steph pomboy
9 months
Fitch just downgraded US govt debt for 1st time since August 2011. Following the downgrade then, 10-yr yields declined (!) and the dollar (after brief and short decline) moved sharply higher (!!). HOWEVER, credit spreads widened and gold spurted from $1660 to $1900 in one month.
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steph pomboy
4 years
Is it just me or does it strike anyone else suspicious that Republicans have held the majority in the Senate (handily) & picked up seats in the House but Biden is ahead in the Electoral and popular vote count?? Are we to believe the incidence of splitting tickets is that high?
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steph pomboy
2 years
The only # that matters in today's GDP is 1.9%. That was growth ex inventories (aka Real Final Sales). so much for the strong economy and the shortage of merch. We are about to go from shortage to glut and inflation to disinflation...RIGHT as the Fed tightens. #MonetaryMagoos
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steph pomboy
5 months
Don't Believe The Hype. Widest gap between GDI and GDP in history.
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steph pomboy
1 month
Feels to me like things are about to turn... and turn HARD! 1/3
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steph pomboy
7 months
2) Full Time employment is down a stunning -692k over just the last 3 months. the last 3 times this happened?? 2001, 2008 and Covid recession (2020)
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steph pomboy
9 months
I didn’t watch the January 6 committee Hollywood spectacle because I believed from the beginning it was a total farce. Turns out it was far worse than that. It wasn’t just an attempt to deceive. It was an attempt to deflect.
@TuckerCarlson
Tucker Carlson
9 months
Ep. 15 Former Capitol Police Chief Steven Sund reveals what really happened on January 6th. Our Fox News interview with him never aired, so we invited him back.
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steph pomboy
10 months
I said it before. I’ll say it again: QE started as a discretionary economic policy but has become a deficit financing necessity.
@GoldSeabridge
Seabridge Gold Investor (NYSE:SA | TSX:SEA.TO)
10 months
According to the St Louis Fed, interest payments by the Federal Government have now surpassed $900B for the first time ever, and within a quarter will probably rise above $1T. Unsustainable. @SA @SantiagoAuFund @leadecon @spomboy @Sprott @pboockvar
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steph pomboy
2 years
Markets celebrating softer CPI as meaning less Fed rate hikes. but they are missing a critical part of the story. What does it mean for margins? We will find out w PPI tmrw. Right now input costs (PPI) outpacing ability to pass along (CPI) by widest ever -worse even than 1970s
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steph pomboy
1 year
Yet gold down. People haven't put the puzzle pieces together. Which is crazy bc the puzzle is now nearly complete.
@LukeGromen
Luke Gromen
1 year
Saudi Aramco in Deal with Chinese Partners to Build Refinery - Bloomberg Via ⁦ @maxblaster ⁩ & ⁦ @GoldTelegraph_
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@spomboy
steph pomboy
1 year
Tune into @TuckerCarlson tonight for my take on Biden's new mortgage fee rule that penalizes high quality credits while subsidizing lower quality borrowers. It's even more sinister than you think!
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steph pomboy
5 months
Fed tees up lower rates and the Biden administration quietly pushes oil production. Yep. All the pieces are falling into place to buy the election.
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@spomboy
steph pomboy
2 years
1/3 Remember: we were headed into recession BEFORE Russia's invasion of the Ukraine sent the price of everything we can't live without soaring skyward. GDP growth (esp the consumer) was crumbling in the absence of stimulus. The YC, Sentiment, Neg. Real Wages...all signaling.
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steph pomboy
1 month
I'm sure it's nothing. But to me it sounds eerily similar to the hedge funds that brought down Bear Stearns.
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steph pomboy
2 years
Anyone else stunned that (1) no one in the press room bothered to ask Powell how he thinks he can successfully bring down inflation if, by his own admission, most of it is out of is out of his control (energy)?
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@spomboy
steph pomboy
4 years
if a 74yr old with a few extra lbs can beat covid in 2 days, it begs 2 questions: (1) how do states maintain lockdowns and (2) how does the fed sit on its hands for 3yrs????
@realDonaldTrump
Donald J. Trump
4 years
I will be leaving the great Walter Reed Medical Center today at 6:30 P.M. Feeling really good! Don’t be afraid of Covid. Don’t let it dominate your life. We have developed, under the Trump Administration, some really great drugs & knowledge. I feel better than I did 20 years ago!
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steph pomboy
10 months
So much not to like in this morning's payrolls it's hard to know where to start. But a few quickies: 1) Part Time jobs rose 452k 2) govt jobs accounted for 60k of headline payrolls 3) the seasonal bar was lowered nearly 100k 4) net revision of -110k from prior months Are we…
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steph pomboy
2 years
The -35 point decline in the NAHB Index so far this year is the fastest in history (outside Covid). Faster even than during the deflation of the housing bubble. But, no. We're not in recession. #IHaveABridgeToSellYou
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steph pomboy
5 months
Just when I thought I couldn’t get any more bullish on gold, along comes Ken Fisher deriding it is a “mythical, safe haven”. There is a Santa! Merry Christmas, everyone!☃️🎄🎅🪙🪙
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steph pomboy
2 years
I guess I should jump in here and clarify.😂 I'm an Austrian at heart. I am NOT advocating for rate cuts. I wish the Fed didn't exist! Then we wouldn't be in this mess. BUT if they don't want a repeat of 2008 the only option is to slash and slash now.
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steph pomboy
7 months
Not surprisingly, the picture beneath the surface suggests this morning's emp report isn't nearly as strong as it appears at first blush. 1) divergence btw the Household survey &Payroll survey expanded anew (HH up just 86k, vs 336k for payrolls)-HH tends to lead at turning pts.
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steph pomboy
9 months
Ruh Roh. Did the BoJ just burst the bond bubble????
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steph pomboy
4 years
why is it that the media never points out this....??? cases up, yes. but deaths continue to decline. that would seem rather important to the discussion, wouldn't it??
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steph pomboy
2 years
The idea--being expressed in gold and the 10-yr-- that Powell is somehow tough (or just tougher than Brainard would have been) is laughable on its face. I'll place my wager right now that the Fed doesn't complete its taper before it is 'forced' to reverse course.
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steph pomboy
4 years
Borrowing fortifies a balance sheet like drinking tequila fortifies shrewd decision making
@trevornoren
Trevor Noren
4 years
"Investment-grade companies have borrowed a trillion dollars in five months to fortify balance sheets against the coronavirus crisis"
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steph pomboy
2 years
The hit to Household Net Worth over the last 2 quarters is beyond even that of the GFC. Reverse Wealth Effect about to work with a vengeance. #Recession #Crisis
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steph pomboy
7 months
wow! @ttmygh . Even by Krugman standards, this is staggering.
@paulkrugman
Paul Krugman
7 months
The war on inflation is over. We won, at very little cost
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steph pomboy
2 years
Here, folks, is your economic "recovery"
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steph pomboy
5 months
2 quick points on CPI. (1) lest it were needed here is evidence that the # is total BS. and (2) imagine how much higher the upside 'surprise' would have been were this component rooted in reality?!
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@spomboy
steph pomboy
7 months
i should have put this as #1 !
@spomboy
steph pomboy
7 months
2) Full Time employment is down a stunning -692k over just the last 3 months. the last 3 times this happened?? 2001, 2008 and Covid recession (2020)
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steph pomboy
8 months
Lots of distraction this morning. But I think the story of the day is crude @$85
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steph pomboy
5 months
As i have been saying from the beginning, this was not a tightening cycle. It was an interest rate shock. And those analyzing it through the lens of prior tightening cycles are missing it.
@profplum99
Michael Green
5 months
About that “slowly and then all at once”….
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@spomboy
steph pomboy
8 months
It's really something, listening to johnny-come-latelys parroting my talking points on corporate bankruptcies (which none of them saw coming 6 mo's ago). But they still fail to connect the dots. If they did, they'd be calling for a fiscal & monetary response that makes 2008-9…
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steph pomboy
2 years
Chart of the day...Homebuilders' Sentiment is a leading economic indicator. It suggests the employment data the Fed is looking at is about to roll over HARD
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steph pomboy
1 year
As I wrote to clients this week, there is no better canary in the 'coalmine' for coming economic and financial distress than the ratio of gold to copper. Even while they try to bash gold, it is still soaring rel. to the metal w/ a PhD in economics. #somethingwickedthiswaycomes
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steph pomboy
2 years
I can't hold my tongue any longer. This is an admittedly wonky point--but a very important one!!-- as relates to the spectacular Retail Sales report yesterday.
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steph pomboy
1 year
3/3 And NOW is the time to encourage stretched would-be-homeowners to enter the market??? It's almost as if they WANT to drown people in negative equity. Or maybe to further enervate the banking system to allow for a larger takeover? I'm honestly lost.
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@spomboy
steph pomboy
9 months
I was positively champing at the bit to have this conversation with @JamesGRickards about the BRIC+ currency developments. And he didn't disappoint! Spoiler alert: his first hand observations about the US attention to the moves now being made on the global currency chessboard…
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@spomboy
steph pomboy
3 months
It's almost as if we're trying to help China build a standing army in our country
@Jkylebass
🇺🇸 Kyle Bass 🇹🇼
3 months
The imbeciles writing the Border bill snuck this beauty into the text: “ALIENS from NONCONTIGUOUS countries SHALL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE SUM OF ALIENS ENCOUNTERED.” So Chinese, Somali, Yemeni, Russian, Iranian nationals encountered at the border simply won’t be counted???!…
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steph pomboy
3 months
This is incredible! Why isn’t everybody talking about this?
@Convertbond
Lawrence McDonald
3 months
. @JeffBezos Dear Jeff, one of the smartest human beings, who’s ever walked on two legs on this planet 🌏 is selling stock like it’s his last meal before the electric chair? What does he know?
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steph pomboy
5 months
Merry Christmas! Now, let’s get this party started!!
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steph pomboy
10 months
While Wall St soothsayers and investors grow more confident in the 'no-or-soft-landing' thesis, the data continue to deteriorate and credit strains continue to mount. this morning starwood default. and here's a look at the tone of 3q credit ratings. Five IG downgrades and not a…
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steph pomboy
2 years
On a day when the dollar was "supposed" to be up a lot, it has barely budged and IMPORTANTLY, is down against the Yuan.
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steph pomboy
3 years
NY Fed suspends its GDP Nowcast amid rising uncertainty. Really think the Fed can taper?????
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steph pomboy
1 year
Even as the manipulators try to keep gold below $2k, it continues to massively outperform copper. The canary in the financial crisis coalmine is singing....
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steph pomboy
1 year
Lather. Rinse. Repeat. The decades and the players change. But the fed always runs the same play. That would be galling enough if they didnt then turn around and pretend to be concerned about wealth inequality. Go get a real job and give me an F-ing break!
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steph pomboy
1 year
Now THAT’s a tease! #hanginontheedgeofmyseat
@TuckerCarlson
Tucker Carlson
1 year
Good evening
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steph pomboy
1 month
Oh this is good....😂🔥
@TheBabylonBee
The Babylon Bee
1 month
4D Chess: Trump Makes Mar-A-Lago Worth $500 Million By Hanging Up 3 Hunter Biden Paintings
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steph pomboy
7 months
Someone needs to remind Sheila that just because rates have been higher before is ZERO comfort to people who have only known (and can only afford) a world of ZIRP
@SheilaBair2013
Sheila Bair
7 months
Everyone calm down. Ten-year Treasury yields are NOT high by historical standards. #FRED @stlouisfed
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